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At least 1,189 records · Page 66

A Gaussian process guide for signal regression in magnetic fusion

Extracting reliable information from diagnostic data in tokamaks is critical for understanding, analyzing, and controlling the behavior of fusion plasmas and validating models describing that behavior. Recent interest within the fusion community has focused on the use of principled statistical methods, such as Gaussian process regression (GPR), to attempt to develop sharper, more reliable, and more rigorous tools for examining the complex observed behavior in these systems. While GPR is an enormously powerful tool, there is also the danger of drawing fragile, or inconsistent conclusions from naive GPR fits that are not driven by principled treatments. Here we review the fundamental concepts underlying GPR in a way that may be useful for broad-ranging applications in fusion science. We also revisit how GPR is developed for profile fitting in tokamaks. We examine various extensions and targeted modifications applicable to experimental observations in the edge of the DIII-D tokamak. Finally, we discuss best practices for applying GPR to fusion data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Boosts in leaf-level photosynthetic capacity aid Pinus ponderosa recovery from wildfire

Forests mitigate climate change by sequestering massive amounts of carbon, but recent increases in wildfire activity are threatening carbon storage. Currently, our understanding of wildfire impacts on forest resilience and the mechanisms controlling post-fire recovery remains unresolved due to a lack of empirical data on mature trees in natural settings. Here, we quantify the physiological mechanisms controlling carbon uptake immediately following wildfire in mature individuals of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), a wide-spread and canopy-dominant tree species in fire-prone forests. While photosynthetic capacity was lower in burned than unburned trees due to an overall depletion of resources, we show that within the burned trees, photosynthetic capacity increases with the severity of damage. Our data reveal that boosts in the efficiency of carbon uptake at the leaf-level may compensate for whole-tree damage, including the loss of leaf area and roots. We further show that heightened photosynthetic capacity in remaining needles on burned trees may be linked with reduced water stress and leaf nitrogen content, providing pivotal information about post-fire physiological processes. Our results have implications for Earth system modeling efforts because measurements of species-level physiological parameters are used in models to predict ecosystem and landscape-level carbon trajectories. Finally, current land management practices do not account for physiological resilience and recovery of severely burned trees. Our results suggest premature harvest may remove individuals that may otherwise survive, irrevocably altering forest carbon balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reducing uncertainty of high-latitude ecosystem models through identification of key parameters

Abstract Climate change is having significant impacts on Earth’s ecosystems and carbon budgets, and in the Arctic may drive a shift from an historic carbon sink to a source. Large uncertainties in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) used to forecast Arctic changes demonstrate the challenges of determining the timing and extent of this possible switch. This spread in model predictions can limit the ability of TBMs to guide management and policy decisions. One of the most influential sources of model uncertainty is model parameterization. Parameter uncertainty results in part from a mismatch between available data in databases and model needs. We identify that mismatch for three TBMs, DVM-DOS-TEM, SIPNET and ED2, and four databases with information on Arctic and boreal above- and belowground traits that may be applied to model parametrization. However, focusing solely on such data gaps can introduce biases towards simple models and ignores structural model uncertainty, another main source for model uncertainty. Therefore, we develop a causal loop diagram (CLD) of the Arctic and boreal ecosystem that includes unquantified, and thus unmodeled, processes. We map model parameters to processes in the CLD and assess parameter vulnerability via the internal network structure. One important substructure, feed forward loops (FFLs), describe processes that are linked both directly and indirectly. When the model parameters are data-informed, these indirect processes might be implicitly included in the model, but if not, they have the potential to introduce significant model uncertainty. We find that the parameters describing the impact of local temperature on microbial activity are associated with a particularly high number of FFLs but are not constrained well by existing data. By employing ecological models of varying complexity, databases, and network methods, we identify the key parameters responsible for limited model accuracy. They should be prioritized for future data sampling to reduce model uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High-resolution mountain topography can inform global snow vulnerability estimates

Snow is changing globally. Computationally intensive snow reanalysis products and downscaled climate model projections allow for the estimation of historical and projected changes in snow over ∼4–10 km resolutions, but these resolutions are coarse relative to the scales needed for water supply and flood planning. Fine-scale digital elevation models (DEMs) are widely available but are underutilized to make first-order assessments of snow vulnerability. Here, we leverage DEMs at a 7.5 arc s (∼250 m) resolution, combining these with historical freezing level height estimates from ERA-5 to derive estimates of changes in the snow-receiving area (SRA) and its variability across global mountain ranges. Results show estimated SRA declines in 29% (1.9 million km2) of the global mountain area from 1982–2020; 66% of the mountainous areas had no change over the historical period. At +1.5 °C of warming relative to the pre-industrial control, global mountain SRA would decline by 9.5% (1.0 million km2) relative to recent conditions. This loss would be approximately doubled with +2 °C of warming. In a +4 °C warming scenario, an additional 34% (3.6 million km2) of SRA would be lost beyond the +2 °C case. Across individual mountain ranges, SRA losses can occur nonlinearly with warming, with some locations that have historically had relatively minor SRA losses at risk of substantially larger losses in warmer climates. Analysis using coarser-resolution DEMs can underestimate or overestimate SRA and its rate of loss, with the largest impacts in relatively warm, low-elevation mountain ranges. Results of this work provide estimates of projected loss in SRA at policy-relevant warming levels; inform the resolutions needed for process-based snow modeling; identify snow vulnerability hotspots; and provide a new integrated approach to snow vulnerability assessment that is achievable at global scales and highlights potential nonlinearities from recent trends to a variety of future warming scenarios.

climate, mountains↗

MultiCAM: a multivariable framework for connecting the mass accretion history of haloes with their properties

ABSTRACT Models that connect galaxy and halo properties often summarize a halo’s mass accretion history (MAH) with a single value and use this value as the basis for predictions. However, a single-value summary fails to capture the complexity of MAHs and information can be lost in the process. We present MultiCAM, a generalization of traditional abundance matching frameworks, which can simultaneously connect the full MAH of a halo with multiple halo and/or galaxy properties. As a first case study, we apply MultiCAM to the problem of connecting dark matter halo properties to their MAHs in the context of a dark matter-only simulation. While some halo properties, such as concentration, are more strongly correlated to the early-time mass growth of a halo, others, like the virial ratio, have stronger correlations with late-time mass growth. This highlights the necessity of considering the impact of the entire MAH on halo properties. For most of the halo properties we consider, we find that MultiCAM models that use the full MAH achieve higher accuracy than conditional abundance matching models that use a single epoch. We also demonstrate an extension of MultiCAM that captures the covariance between predicted halo properties. This extension provides a baseline model for applications where the covariance between predicted properties is important.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Decoding polymer self-dynamics using a two-step approach

The self-correlation function and corresponding self-intermediate scattering function in Fourier space are important quantities for describing the molecular motions of liquids. This work draws attention to a largely overlooked issue concerning the analysis of these space-time density-density correlation functions of polymers. Here, we show that the interpretation of non-Gaussian behavior of polymers is generally complicated by intrachain averaging of distinct self-dynamics of different segments. By the very nature of the mathematics involved, the averaging process not only conceals critical dynamical information, but also contributes to the observed non-Gaussian dynamics. To fully expose this issue and provide a thorough benchmark of polymer self-dynamics, we perform analyses of coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations of linear and ring polymer melts as well as several theoretical models using a “two-step” approach, where interchain and intrachain averagings of segmental self-dynamics are separated. While past investigations primarily focused on the average behavior, our results indicate that a more nuanced approach to polymer self-dynamics is clearly required.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Using limited neural networks to assess relative mechanistic influence on shock heating in granular solids

The rapid compaction of granular media results in localized heating that can induce chemical reactions, phase transformations, and melting. However, there are numerous mechanisms in play that can be dependent on a variety of microstructural features. Machine learning techniques such as neural networks offer a ubiquitous method to develop models for physical processes. Limiting what kind of microstructural information is used as an input and assessing normalized changes in network error, the relative importance of different mechanisms can be inferred. Here we utilize binned, initial density information as network inputs to predict local shock heating in a granular high explosive trained from large-scale molecular dynamics simulations. In this study, the spatial extent of the density field used in the network is altered to assess the importance and relevant length scales of the physical mechanisms in play, where different microstructural features result in different predictive capabilities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems: Preserving Customer Privacy through K-Anonymity

The smart grid represents the next generation of electricity distribution systems that utilizes recent technological innovations. It uses digital communication between its components and entities to attain more automation, self-sufficiency, and reliability. One of the many concerns in smart grid digital communication discussions is the possibility of violating customers’ privacy. Violating customers’ privacy imposes a significant barrier as smart grid desirable attributes are tightly tied to customers’ participation. Employing privacy models can address concerns regarding information privacy in smart grid digital communication. In this work, we provide an approach to utilizing K-anonymity to ensure data within the system excludes Personally Identifiable Information. Results suggest that a dynamically generated generalization hierarchy minimizes information loss incurred by the anonymization process.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Wide-blocky veins explained by dependency of crystal growth rate on fracture surface type: Insights from phase-field modeling

Vein microstructures contain a wealth of information on coupled chemical and mechanical processes of fracturing, fluid transport, and crystal growth. Numerical simulations have been used for exploring the factors controlling the development of vein microstructures; however, they have not been quantitatively validated against natural veins. Here we combined phase-field modeling with microtextural analysis of previously unexplained wide-blocky calcite veins in natural limestone and of the fresh fracture surface in this limestone. Results show that the wide-blocky vein textures can only be reproduced if ~10%–20% of crystals grow faster than the rest. This fraction corresponds to the amount of transgranularly broken grains that were observed on the experimental fracture surfaces, which are dominantly intergranular. We hypothesize that transgranular fractures allow faster growth of vein minerals due to the lack of clay coatings and other nucleation discontinuities that are common along intergranular cracks. Our simulation results show remarkable similarity to the natural veins and reproduce the nonlinear relationship between vein crystal width and vein aperture. This allows accurate simulations of crystal growth processes and related permeability evolution in fractured rocks.

Geology↗

LCIO

Performance of file systems shift during their life cycles. Evaluating this performance change over time is not trivial. Complexity arises in the interplay between external (i.e. application I/O workloads) and internal (i.e. the filesystem state) factors. Many benchmarks can test how a filesystem performs at the current snapshot state, but to observe the change over time necessitates that the filesystem state mutate (age) between benchmark runs. For a large-scale HPC parallel filesystem, the sheer scale and amount of interacting components during I/O operations magnify these challenges. LCIO addresses the question - how will the filesystem perform at different stages of its life cycle? LCIO is a synthetic benchmark, which provides the file system aging process to increase the amount of information that existing benchmarks like IOR and MDTest yield, as well as provide additional points of data that will be useful to system architects and engineers.

Bachstein, Matthew↗

High-throughput electronic structure package

We introduce HTESP (High-Throughput Electronic Structure Package), an automated tool designed for high-throughput ab initio calculations. HTESP simplifies the entire workflow, including data extraction, input files generation, calculation submission, result collection, and plotting. The package is implemented in Python and Bash languages. In this paper, we provide detailed information about the package, its installation process and some illustrative examples to demonstrate its usage. Additionally, the package includes comprehensive online documentation on input parameters and tutorials to assist users.

Nepal, NirajK↗

EGS Collab Experiment 3: 4100 Tensile Stimulation and Thermal Circulation Testing

These data and test descriptions are from a set of primarily tensile hydraulic-fracture stimulations in wells E2-TC and E2-TU and a subsequent chilled water circulation test conducted by injecting in well E2-TU on the 4100 level of the Sandford Underground Research Facility (SURF). Stimulations were carried out between April and May of 2022. The thermal circulation test ran semi-continuously from May 19 through August 26, 2022, though chilled water injection began on June 3. More information about the test, rationale, and processing of data is available on the EGS Collab project page, which is linked below.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Energy-Community-Geo-Database

Fundamental to understanding evolving infrastructure and technology is understanding the drivers for energy communities that affect where and how infrastructure is placed and used. An Energy Community Geo Database aligned to carbon storage systems will aid stakeholders in decision making around key future infrastructure (e.g., CCS injection locations) placement while helping contextualize these analyses against past and present-day social and environmental attributes. Much of the data required to support analyses are available from authoritative, largely governmental sources, but at present are disparate and require time-consuming acquisition, integration, and upkeep for currency. The CCS-EC-GB v2.0 integrates datasets from various federal agencies and authoritative sources to aid stakeholders and decision makers of the social and environmental factors that might impact the viability of CCS and energy related project implementation. There are 5 categories in the CCS-EC-GB v2 database. Most of the layers within each category have been updated in this version. As compared to the old database, there is 1 new category in the CCS-EC-GB v2 database: infrastructure. This is an evolving project and application will be updated periodically with new datasets and information. Notes for consideration: This database/web map will be updated with additional as new data and information becomes available and has been processed, reviewed, and approved for release. Additional state and federal entity data are planned to be integrated and included in future revisions. Summary layers provided in this application are derived from proprietary layers and do not always contain key features (age, status, or TVD) and therefore might not be shown when data are queried for those features.

CCS,Carbon capture and storage,Carbon storage,U.S.↗

Development of Mockups and Instrumentation for Spent Fuel Drying Tests

The purpose of this report is to provide updates on the experimental components, methodology, and instrumentation under development for use in advanced studies of realistic drying operations conducted on surrogate spent nuclear fuel. Validation of the extent of water removal in a dry spent nuclear fuel storage system based on drying procedures used at nuclear power plants is needed to close existing technical gaps. Operational conditions leading to incomplete drying may have potential impacts on the fuel, cladding, and other components in the system. Water remaining in canisters upon completion of drying procedures can lead to cladding corrosion, embrittlement, and breaching, as well as fuel degradation. Additional information is needed on the drying process efficacy to help evaluate the potential impacts of water retention on extended longterm dry storage. A general lack of data suitable for model validation of commercial nuclear canister drying processes necessitates additional, well-designed investigations. Smaller-scale tests that incorporate relevant physics and well-controlled boundary conditions are essential to provide insight and guidance to the simulation of prototypic systems undergoing drying processes. This report describes the implementation of moisture monitoring equipment on a pressurized, submersible system employing a single waterproof, electrically heated spent fuel rod simulator as a demonstration of analytical capabilities during a drying process. A mass spectrometer with specially designed inlets was used to monitor moisture and other gases at 150 kPa to 800 kPa for a test simulating a forced helium dehydration procedure and below 1 torr for tests mimicking a vacuum drying process. The dew point data from the mass spectrometer was found to be in good agreement with a solid-state moisture probe. A distinct advantage of the mass spectrometer system was the capability to directly sample from the hightemperature (>200 °C) head space expected in a prototypic scale experiment where a solid-state moisture probe would suffer considerable loss of accuracy or fail altogether. The operational and analytical experiences gained from this test series are poised to support an expansion to assembly-scale tests at prototypic length. These assemblies are designed to feature prototypic assembly hardware, advanced diagnostics for in situ internal rod pressure monitoring, and failed fuel rod simulators with engineered cladding defects to challenge the drying system with waterlogged fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Applying Compression-Based Metrics to Seismic Data in Support of Global Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

The analysis of seismic data for evidence of possible nuclear explosion testing is a critical global security mission that relies heavily on human expertise to identify and mark seismic signals embedded in background noise. To assist analysts in making these determinations, we adapted two compression distance metrics for use with seismic data. First, we demonstrated that the Normalized Compression Distance (NCD) metric can be adapted for use with waveform data and can identify the arrival times of seismic signals. Then we tested an approximation for the NCD called Sliding Information Distance (SLID), which can be computed much faster than NCD. We assessed the accuracy of the SLID output by comparing it to both the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the judgments of expert seismic analysts. Our results indicate that SLID effectively identifies arrival times and provides analysts with useful information that can aid their analysis process.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

COMBLE-Isotopic Links to Atmospheric Water’s Sources (ISLAS) Snow Sampling 2020 Field Campaign Report

Within the European Research Council (ERC)-funded project entitled Isotopic Links to Atmospheric Water’s Sources (ISLAS), researchers from the University of Bergen, Norway, used the stable isotope composition of atmospheric water vapor and precipitation to obtain information about the sources and transport processes of water vapor within arctic weather systems. In particular, during cold-air outbreak conditions, evaporation and precipitation occur in close proximity within the study area. With evaporation studied at a single location (Ny-Ålesund), ISLAS researchers wanted to be able to sample the resulting precipitation at several downstream locations. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) site was one of those locations, included in an entire network of precipitation sampling stations reaching from Ny-Ålesund, where water vapor isotope measurements are conducted near the surface, to Longyearbyen, Tromsø, Andenes, Ålesund, and Bergen. Daily precipitation samples, enhanced by more frequent sampling during intense operational periods (IOPs), were conducted during four weeks from 20 February to 20 March 2020. The contribution from the ARM mobile facility (AMF) observatory, deployed at ANX (Andenes, Norway) during COMBLE, was valuable to understand the spatial coherence of water isotope signals from arctic and extratropical weather systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Informative Background on the Interoperability Requirements in IEEE Std 1547-2018

The intent of this document is to support local authorities governing interconnection requirements in adopting the most current requirements for interconnecting distributed energy resources (DERs) to the electric distribution system, as specified in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Standard for Interconnection and Interoperability of Distributed Energy Resources with Associated Electric Power Systems Interfaces (IEEE Std 1547-2018 ). To create interconnection rules that successfully address policy goals, market trends, and technical requirements, electric service regulators need to be well informed of DER integration considerations. Interconnection processes and technical issues often overlap; the two are not easily segregated, and they are often considered and evaluated concurrently within the context of interconnection rulemaking. Accordingly, this document addresses both the technical issues and related process considerations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Guide to Updating Interconnection Rules and Incorporating IEEE Standard 1547

The intent of this paper is to support local authorities in adopting the most current technical requirements for interconnecting distributed energy resources (DERs) to the electric distribution system as specified in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Standard for Interconnection and Interoperability of Distributed Energy Resources with Associated Electric Power Systems Interfaces (IEEE Std 1547-2018). To create interconnection rules that successfully address policy goals, market trends, and technical requirements, state regulators need to be well informed of DER integration considerations. Interconnection processes and technical issues often overlap; the two are not easily segregated, and they are often considered and evaluated concurrently within the context of interconnection rulemaking. Accordingly, this paper addresses both the technical issues and related process considerations. A lack of uniform and transparent procedures for addressing interconnection rule changes can result in implementation issues or inefficiencies, such as unclear, lengthy, and complicated interconnection rules that can increase distributed generation "soft costs" (i.e., non-hardware costs). This can further delay the deployment of DERs and jeopardize time-constrained national and state policy goals, such as renewable energy targets, or limit participation in emerging techno-economic trends. Additionally, misconstructed interconnection rules are at risk of becoming mired in stakeholder conflicts. This guide addresses the concerns of electric service regulators from both the process and technical standpoints by presenting a structured, step-by-step approach to developing and updating existing interconnection rules. In this document, the process of developing and updating interconnection rules is subdivided into three steps: (1) determining the context (stakeholders and major drivers); (2) developing the rule, including updating technical requirements; and (3) maintaining and revising the rule over time.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗