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DOE OSTI2023

Mechanisms of Pacific decadal variability in ESMs: the roles of stochastic forcing, feedbacks & external forcing

This project explored how and why climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean—specifically Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV)—change over time, and how well leading Earth System Models (ESMs) capture these changes under different climate scenarios. By analyzing large climate model datasets and running new simulations, the team investigated how ocean and atmosphere processes interact to shape PDV. The study tested a leading scientific hypothesis using both simplified and complex models, helping to uncover the key mechanisms that drive long-term climate swings in the Pacific. This work improves our ability to detect, predict, and understand how human-driven climate change may influence major ocean-climate patterns in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Identifying Characteristics of Wildfire Towers and Troughs

Wildfire behavior is dictated by the complex interaction of numerous physical phenomena including dynamic ambient and fire-induced winds, heat transfer, aerodynamic drag on the wind by the fuel and combustion. These phenomena create complex feedback effects between the fire and its surroundings. In this study, we aim to study the mechanisms by which buoyant flame dynamics along with vortical motions and instabilities control wildfire propagation. Specifically, this study employs a suite of simulations conducted with the physics-based coupled fire-atmosphere behavior model (FIRETEC). The simulations are initialized with a fire line and the fires are allowed to propagate on a grass bed, where the fuel heights and wind conditions are varied systematically. Flow variables are extracted to identify the characteristics of the alternating counter-rotational vortices, called towers and troughs, that drive convective heat transfer and fire spread. These vortices have previously been observed in wildfires and laboratory fires, and have also been observed to arise spontaneously in FIRETEC due to the fundamental physics incorporated in the model. However, these past observations have been qualitative in nature and no quantitative studies can be found in the literature which connected these coherent structures fundamental to fire behavior with the constitutive flow variables. To that end, a variety of state variables are examined in the context of these coherent structures under various wind profile and grass height conditions. Identification of various correlated signatures and fire-atmosphere feedbacks in simulations provides a hypothesis that can be tested in future observational or experimental efforts, potentially assisting experimental design, and can aid in the interpretation of data from in situ detectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Short-Baseline Near Detector at Fermilab: Input to the European Strategy for Particle Physics 2026 Update

SBND is a 112 ton liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) neutrino detector located 110 meters from the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) target at Fermilab. Its main goals include searches for eV-scale sterile neutrinos as part of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program, other searches for physics beyond the Standard Model, and precision studies of neutrino-argon interactions. In addition, SBND is providing a platform for LArTPC neutrino detector technology development and is an excellent training ground for the international group of scientists and engineers working towards the upcoming flagship Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). SBND began operation in July 2024, and started collecting stable neutrino beam data in December 2024 with an unprecedented rate of ~7,000 neutrino events per day. During its currently approved operation plans (2024-2027), SBND is expected to accumulate nearly 10 million neutrino interactions. The near detector dataset will be instrumental in testing the sterile neutrino hypothesis with unprecedented sensitivity in SBN and in probing signals of beyond the Standard Model physics. It will also be used to significantly advance our understanding of the physics of neutrino-argon interactions ahead of DUNE. After the planned accelerator restart at Fermilab (2029+), opportunities are being explored to operate SBND in antineutrino mode in order to address the scarcity of antineutrino-argon scattering data, or in a dedicated beam-dump mode to significantly enhance sensitivity to searches for new physics. SBND is an international effort, with approximately 40% of institutions from Europe, contributing to detector construction, commissioning, software development, and data analysis. Continued European involvement and leadership are essential during SBND's operations and analysis phase for both the success of SBND, SBN and its role leading up to DUNE.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evolutionary consequences of nascent multicellular life cycles

A key step in the evolutionary transition to multicellularity is the origin of multicellular groups as biological individuals capable of adaptation. Comparative work, supported by theory, suggests clonal development should facilitate this transition, although this hypothesis has never been tested in a single model system. We evolved 20 replicate populations of otherwise isogenic clonally reproducing ‘snowflake’ yeast (Δace2/∆ace2) and aggregative ‘floc’ yeast (GAL1p::FLO1 /GAL1p::FLO1) with daily selection for rapid growth in liquid media, which favors faster cell division, followed by selection for rapid sedimentation, which favors larger multicellular groups. While both genotypes adapted to this regime, growing faster and having higher survival during the group-selection phase, there was a stark difference in evolutionary dynamics. Aggregative floc yeast obtained nearly all their increased fitness from faster growth, not improved group survival; indicating that selection acted primarily at the level of cells. In contrast, clonal snowflake yeast mainly benefited from higher group-dependent fitness, indicating a shift in the level of Darwinian individuality from cells to groups. Through genome sequencing and mathematical modeling, we show that the genetic bottlenecks in a clonal life cycle also drive much higher rates of genetic drift—a result with complex implications for this evolutionary transition. Our results highlight the central role that early multicellular life cycles play in the process of multicellular adaptation.

Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics↗

NASA NTRS1972

Reinterpretations of the northern Nectaris Basin, part F

Photogeologic analysis was attempted on a strip of Apollo 16 metric photographs; the superior quality and stereographic properties of the photography permitted this reevaluation. Geologic contacts, as redrawn closely resemble those of earlier maps, but some differences resulted because of improved photographic quality and a conscious attempt to test fully the impact hypothesis. All or most of the nonmare material of the region of the northern Nectaris Basin rim can be explained by the formation of impact basins. This interpretation seems strained only for some irregular and clustered craters north of Mare Nectaris and for the southern facies of the Descartes material. If the latter material is shown to have been sampled and to be of impact origin, then extensive hill and crater-forming volcanic material of Imbrian or younger age probably does not exist on the lunar terra.

Wilhelms, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Man-systems evaluation of moving base vehicle simulation motion cues

A motion cue investigation program is reported that deals with human factor aspects of high fidelity vehicle simulation. General data on non-visual motion thresholds and specific threshold values are established for use as washout parameters in vehicle simulation. A general purpose similator is used to test the contradictory cue hypothesis that acceleration sensitivity is reduced during a vehicle control task involving visual feedback. The simulator provides varying acceleration levels. The method of forced choice is based on the theory of signal detect ability.

Kirkpatrick, M.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Edge detection for synthetic aperture radar and other noisy images

The development is examined of a new edge detector which is shown to perform adequately in the non-Gaussian multiplicative noise environment which characterizes radar images. This edge detector operates over larger local neighborhood and is less susceptible to noise than previous edge detectors and is therefore more suitable for radar. In addition, a radar image noise model is employed for the design of this new operator. This edge detector is unique in that it is assumed that every local area belongs to either the class of local areas not containing edges or to the class of local areas containing edges. Each pixel's local neighborhood is then assigned to one of these two classes using a statistical hypothesis (a likelihood ratio) test. It is demonstrated that this algorithm is useful for detecting edges in radar images.

Frost, V. S.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Mixture Models for Dependent Observations

Parametric mixture models appropriate for data presented in homogeneous blocks of varying sizes from several unidentified source populations are considered. For most applications, the data elements within each block are dependent. Models are proposed for multivariate normal data incorporating two types of dependence, exchangeability of elements within blocks, and a Markov structure for blocks. The consequences of assuming exchangeability, when in fact the Markov structure holds, are explored. Computational problems for each model are considered, and results of a simple test of the exchangeability hypothesis for LANDSAT data are presented.

Peters, C.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A numerical simulation of barotropic instability. II Wave-wave interaction

A fully nonlinear numerical model of the point jet barotropic instability is used to test and confirm the hypothesis that the magnitude of the wave vorticity does not exceed the magnitude of the initial shear. This result arises directly from the local conservation of vorticity following a parcel and the fact that unstable waves are principally confined to the region where the zonal mean vorticity can be smoothed by the wave so as to eliminate the instability. Comparisons are made between fully nonlinear and quasi-linear models of the point jet instability and their tracer transport properties. Differences become particularly evident after wave saturation. The most important effect neglected by the wave-mean flow model appears to be the advection of wave vorticity by the most unstable mode. However, as equilibration of the instability proceeds, the globally averaged properties of both models are found to be similar.

Nielsen, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The kinematics of cool metal-line white dwarfs and accretion in the local interstellar medium

The data base of spectroscopically identified white dwarfs is used to isolate a sample of cool degenerates with trace metals. The spatial distribution and space velocity components of the white dwarfs projected onto and perpendicular to the galactic plane are compared with the distribution of local interstellar hydrogen. The results are consistent with the metals having been accreted during recent encounters with local density enhancements. However, the limited availability of radial velocities, coupled with uncertainties in the derived abundances, the diffusion times, and in the three-dimensional structure of the local medium, prevent a definitive test of the accretion hypothesis at this time.

Aannestad, P. A.↗

NASA NTRS1987

NO2/NO partitioning as a test of stratospheric ClO concentrations over Antarctica

Physical conditions in the 10-20 km region of the Antarctic stratosphere make the (NO2)/(NO) ratio particularly sensitive to high chlorine levels in the form of ClO. According to simple known photochemical relationships between NO2, NO, ClO, and O3, high ClO levels of 1 ppbv over Antarctica must be accompanied by large values of the (NO2)/(NO) ratio. At high ClO abundances, the (NO2)/(NO) ratio is approximately proportional to the ClO concentration. It is proposed that in-situ measurements of the (NO2)/(NO) ratio could be used to test the high chlorine hypothesis.

Webster, Christopher R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Statistics of cosmological gamma-ray bursts

A phenomenological model of gamma-ray burst spectra is used to calculate the statistics of gamma-ray bursts originating at cosmological distances. A model of bursters with no source evolution in a q sub 0 = 1/2 Friedmann cosmology is in accord with recent observations of the differential V/Vmax distribution. The data are best fit with an average peak-burst luminosity of (4 +/- 2) x 10 exp 51 ergs/s and a present-day source emissivity of 940 +/- 440 bursts/(10 exp 10 yr) cu Mpc. A spectral test of the cosmological hypothesis is proposed.

Dermer, Charles D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Bohemian circular structure, Czechoslovakia: Search for the impact evidence

Test of the impact hypothesis for the origin of the circular, 260-km-diameter structure of the Bohemian Massif led to the discovery of glasses and breccias in the Upper Proterozoic sequence that can be compared to autogeneous breccias of larger craters. The black recrystallized glass contains small exsolution crystals of albite-oligoclase and biotite, regularly dispersed in the matrix recrystallized to quartz. The occurrence of these rocks is limited to a 1-sq-km area. It is directly underlain by the breccia of the pelitic and silty rocks cemented by the melted matrix, found on several tens of square kilometers. The melt has the same chemistry as rock fragments in major and in trace elements. It is slightly impoverished in water. The proportion of melted rocks to fragments varies from 1:5 to 10:1. The mineralogy of melt viens is the function of later, mostly contact metamorphism. On the contact of granitic plutons it abounds on sillimanite, cordierite, and small bullets of ilmenite. Immediately on the contact with syenodiorites it contains garnets. The metamorphism of the impact rock melt seems the most probable explanation of the mineralogy and the dry total fusion of rocks accompanied by the strong fragmentation. Other aspects of this investigation are discussed.

Rajlich, Petr↗

NASA NTRS1993

Venus magmatic and tectonic evolution

Two years beyond the initial mapping by the Magellan spacecraft, hypotheses for the magmatic and tectonic evolution of Venus have become refined and focused. We present our view of these processes, attempting to synthesize aspects of a model for the tectonic and magmatic behavior of the planet. The ideas presented should be taken collectively as an hypothesis subject to further testing. The quintessence of our model is that shear and buoyancy forces in the upper boundary layer of mantle convection give rise to a spatially and temporally complex pattern of strain in a one-plate Venusian lithosphere and modulate the timing and occurrence of magmatism on a global basis.

Phillips, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

New Developments Regarding the KT Event and Other Catastrophes in Earth History

Papers presented at the conference on New Developments Regarding the KT Event and Other Catastrophes in Earth History are included. Topics covered include: trajectories of ballistic impact ejecta on a rotating earth; axial focusing of impact energy in the earth's interior: proof-of-principle tests of a new hypothesis; in search of Nemesis; impact, extinctions, volcanism, glaciations, and tectonics: matches and mismatches.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1994

A criterion autoscheduler for long range planning

A constraint-based scheduling system called SPIKE is used to create long-term schedules for the Hubble Space Telescope. A meta-level scheduler called the Criterion Autoscheduler for Long range planning (CASL) was created to guide SPIKE's schedule generation according to the agenda of the planning scientists. It is proposed that sufficient flexibility exists in a schedule to allow high level planning heuristics to be applied without adversely affected crucial constraints such as spacecraft efficiency. This hypothesis is supported by test data which is described.

Sponsler, Jeffrey L.↗

NASA NTRS1995

The application of network synthesis to repeating classical gamma-ray bursts

It has been suggested that the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) gamma-ray burst catalog contains several groups of bursts clustered in space or in space and time, which provide evidence that a substantial fraction of the classical gamma-ray burst sources repeat. Because many of the bursts in these groups are weak, they are not directly detected by the Ulysses GRB experiment. We apply the network synthesis method to these events to test the repeating burst hypothesis. Although we find no evidence for repeating sources, the method must be applied under more general conditions before reaching any definite conclusions about the existence of classical gamma-ray burst repeating sources.

Hurley, K.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Sea surface topography fields of the tropical Pacific from data assimilation

Time series of maps of monthly tropical Pacific dynamic topography anomalies from 1979 through 1985 were constructed by means of assimilation of the tide gauge and expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data into a linear model driven by observed winds. Estimates of error statistics were calculated and compared to actual differences between hindcasts and observations. Four experiements were performed as follows: one with no assimilation, one with assimiation of sea level anomaly data from eight selected island tide gauge stations, one with assimilation of dynamic height anomalies derived from XBT data, and one with both XBT and tide gauge data assimilated. Data from seven additional tide gauge stations were withheld from the assimilation process and used for verification in all four experiements. Statistical objective maps based on data alone were also constructed for comparison purposes. The dynamic response of the model without assimilation was, in general, weaker than the observed response. Assimilation resulted in enhanced signal amplitude in all three assimilation experiments. With few exceptions the error estimated generated by the Kalman filter appeared quite reasonable. Since the error processes cannot be assumed to be white or stationary, we could find no straightforward way to test the formal statistical hypothesis that the time series of differences between the filter ouput and the actual observations were drawn from a population with statistics given by the Kalman filter estimaes. We found that the best filter we could devise was still short of the goal of producing a white innovation sequence. Extensive changes in the assumed error statistics make only marginal differences. The same is true for long time and space scale behavior of different models with richer physics and finer resolution. Better data assimilation results will probably require relaxation of the assumptions of stationarity and serial independence of the errors. Formation of such detailed noise models will require longer time series, with the attendant problems of matching very different data sets.

Miller, Robert N.↗