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At least 1,189 records · Page 66

Consistency Between Divergent Circulations from Reanalysis Data Sets and Satellite-Derived Precipitation, Radiation, and Surface Fluxes

Large-scale divergent circulations are part of the atmospheric dynamic response to diabatic heating from condensation, radiative processes, and surface heat fluxes. Vertical motion and the associated divergent wind is thus intimately tied to the hydrologic cycle and the global heat balance. Despite its importance, the divergent circulation is too small in comparison to the rotational flow to measure directly with any accuracy. Vertical motions are recovered diagnostically from reanalyses and, as such, are subject to shortcomings in model physics, numerics, and data availability. We use several GEWEX pre-EOS data sets derived from satellite data to assess interannual divergent flow anomalies in the NCEP, GSFC, and GSFC DAO analyse. Among the data sets are monthly, 2.5 degree gridded precipitation (MSU and SSM/I-based), TOA radiative fluxes from ERBS, surface radiative fluxes from the SRB project, and surface latent and sensible flux estimates from SSM/I. Most of these data sets can be considered as independent of the reanalysis fields. We focus largely on the period 1987-1989 encompassing a strong El Nino / la Nina couplet. Consequently we emphasize interannual changes rather than climatological aspects of the reanalyses. In the processes of this study we use simple integral constraints enforced through the satellite-derived data sets to derive corrections to the divergent circulation produced from the reanalyses. We examine the implications of these corrections in describing how perturbations to the tropical heat balance evolve during a warm / cool couplet. In particular the perturbations to the planetary scale water vapor transport, and the resulting changes in TOA and surface radiative fluxes are considered.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Using MERRA Gridded Innovations for Quantifying Uncertainties in Analysis Fields and Diagnosing Observing System Inhomogeneities

MERRA is a NASA reanalysis for the satellite era using a major new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5). The project focuses on historical analyses of the hydrological cycle on a broad range of weather and climate time scales and places the NASA EOS suite of observations in a climate context. The characterization of uncertainty in reanalysis fields is a commonly requested feature by users of such data. While intercomparison with reference data sets is common practice for ascertaining the realism of the datasets, such studies typically are restricted to long term climatological statistics and seldom provide state dependent measures of the uncertainties involved. In principle, variational data assimilation algorithms have the ability of producing error estimates for the analysis variables (typically surface pressure, winds, temperature, moisture and ozone) consistent with the assumed background and observation error statistics. However, these "perceived error estimates" are expensive to obtain and are limited by the somewhat simplistic errors assumed in the algorithm. The observation minus forecast residuals (innovations) by-product of any assimilation system constitutes a powerful tool for estimating the systematic and random errors in the analysis fields. Unfortunately, such data is usually not readily available with reanalysis products, often requiring the tedious decoding of large datasets and not so-user friendly file formats. With MERRA we have introduced a gridded version of the observations/innovations used in the assimilation process, using the same grid and data formats as the regular datasets. Such dataset empowers the user with the ability of conveniently performing observing system related analysis and error estimates. The scope of this dataset will be briefly described. We will present a systematic analysis of MERRA innovation time series for the conventional observing system, including maximum-likelihood estimates of background and observation errors, as well as global bias estimates. Starting with the joint PDF of innovations and analysis increments at observation locations we propose a technique for diagnosing bias among the observing systems, and document how these contextual biases have evolved during the satellite era covered by MERRA.

da Silva, Arlindo↗

Detection and Diagnosis of Data Integrity Attacks in Solar Farms Based on Multilayer Long Short-Term Memory Network

Photovoltaic (PV) systems are becoming more vulnerable to cyber threats. In response to this emerging concern, developing cyber-secure power electronics converters has received increased attention from the IEEE Power Electronics Society that recently launched a cyber-physical-security initiative. Here this letter proposes a deep sequence learning based diagnosis solution for data integrity attacks on PV systems in smart grids, including dc–dc and dc–ac converters. The multilayer long short-term memory networks are used to leverage time-series electric waveform data from current and voltage sensors in PV systems. The proposed method has been evaluated in a PV smart grid benchmark model with extensive quantitative analysis. As a comparison, we have evaluated classic data-driven methods, including K-nearest neighbor, decision tree, support vector machine, artificial neural network, and convolutional neural network. Comparison results verify performances of the proposed method for detection and diagnosis of various data integrity attacks on PV systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Seasonal representation of extreme precipitation indices over the United States in CMIP6 present-day simulations

Realistically representing the present-day characteristics of extreme precipitation has been a challenge for global climate models, which is due in part to deficiencies in model resolution and physics, but is also due to a lack of consistency in gridded observations. In this study, we use three observation datasets, including gridded rain gauge and satellite data, to assess historical simulations from sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. We separately evaluate summer and winter precipitation over the United States (US) with a comprehensive set of extreme precipitation indices, including an assessment of precipitation frequency, intensity and spatial structure. The observations exhibit significant differences in their estimates of area-average intensity distributions and spatial patterns of the mean and extremes of precipitation over the US. In general, the CMIP6 multi-model mean performs better than most individual models at capturing daily precipitation distributions and extreme precipitation indices, particularly in comparison to gauge-based data. Also, the representation of the extreme precipitation indices by the CMIP6 models is better in the summer than winter. Although the ‘standard’ horizontal-resolution can vary significantly across CMIP6 models, from ~0.7° to ~2.8°, we find that resolution is not a good indicator of model performance. Overall, our results highlight common biases in CMIP6 models and demonstrate that no single model is consistently the most reliable across all indices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The evolution of HCO + in molecular clouds using a novel chemical post-processing algorithm

Modelling the chemistry of molecular clouds is critical to accurately simulating their evolution. To reduce computational cost, 3D simulations generally restrict their chemistry to species with strong heating and cooling effects. Time-dependent information about the evolution of other species is therefore often neglected. We address this gap by post-processing tracer particles in the SILCC-Zoom molecular cloud simulations. Using a chemical network of 39 species and 301 reactions (including freeze-out of CO and H 2 O) and a novel algorithm to reconstruct a density grid from sparse tracer particle data, we produce time-dependent density distributions for various species. We focus upon the evolution of HCO + , which is a critical formation reactant of CO but is not typically modelled on the fly. We find that ∼ 90 per cent of the HCO + content of the cold molecular gas forms in situ around n HCO + ∼ 10 3 –10 4 cm −3 , over a time-scale of approximately 1 Myr. The remaining ∼ 10 per cent forms at high extinction sites, with minimal turbulent mixing out into the less dense gas. We further show that the dominant HCO + formation pathway is dependent on the visual extinction, with the reaction H 3 + + CO contributing 90 per cent of the total HCO + production above A V, 3D = 3. We produce the very first maps of the HCO + column density, N(HCO + ), and show that it reaches values as high as 10 15 cm −2 . We find that 50 per cent of the HCO + mass is located within AV ∼ 10–30 in a density range of 10 3.5 –10 4.5 cm −3 . Our maps of N(HCO + ) are shown to be in good agreement with recent observations of the W49A star-forming region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Model Calibration Method for Grid-Forming Inverters Using Iterative Bayesian Optimization

As inverter-based resources (IBRs) are rapidly deployed, especially at the distribution and microgrid levels, the need to include their accurate representations in power systems models increases. With well-calibrated models, IBR-interactions can be examined, preventing any stability and operational issues, especially in islanded systems. This paper proposes a method to calibrate generic inverter models using Bayesian optimization, but with a parameter-grouping approach to improve speed and accuracy. This approach is illustrated for a grid-forming inverter using synthetic data and field measurements from a simple IBRbased microgrid. Tests show that the calibration algorithm has modest computation cost and is robust to noisy measurements..

Biswas, Shuchismita↗

Impact Study of Thunderstorms on the US Power Grid Using Publicly Available Datasets

This work analyzes the impact of thunderstorms on the US power grid based on publicly available data. Since thunderstorms can bring lightning, heavy precipitation, and wind storms, analyzing their impact on the power system provides a combined correlation of lightning strikes, floods, and wind storms on power outages. This paper leverages publicly available thunderstorm datasets from the National Weather Service (NWS) and power outage datasets from Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Environment for Analysis of Geo-Located Energy Information (EAGLE-I) to study the correlation between thunderstorms and power outages. This work is analyzing the patterns of thunderstorms from 2013-2022, which shows that the thunderstorms are not slowing down and will seem to continue their impact on human life in the future. This work also analyzes the monthly and yearly pattern of the impact of thunderstorms on power systems at the national, state, and county level.

Bhusal, Narayan↗

picassodev/picasso

Picasso is a C++ template library for the development of exascale-class particle-in-cell methods. It contains data structures for particle and grid management using the ECP Kokkos and Cabana libraries, abstractions for particle and grid discretizations, and tools for interface tracking and reconstruction with particles.

Slattery, Stuart↗

Generic Discretization Library

The GenDiL library is a collection of C++ software abstractions designed to discretize and solve partial differential equations (PDEs) for high-performance computing (HPC) applications. Its primary focus is on modern C++ generic programming, which helps ensure portability across various hardware architectures. The central idea behind the library is to provide building blocks for numerical algorithms-such as discretization methods and iteration patterns-so that domain experts can focus on the math, rather than the low-level details of hardware or implementation. By defining abstractions for data types, iteration over computational grids, and scheduling of operations, the library isolates the high-level PDE algorithms from the platform-specific optimizations needed to achieve efficient performance.

Dudouit, Yohann [Lawrence Livermore National Labor↗

Analytic error analysis of cross section interpolation methods in nodal diffusion codes - II: Numerical results

This paper is the second part of a two-part paper that documents the numerical results for the partial derivatives model presented in part I. In this paper, we derive the error bounds for the analytical point-wise error expression and verify our bounds with numerical experiments. The point-wise error expressions make available, and bound, the sources that contribute to the total error of the interpolated cross section in terms of the Lagrange interpolation errors and the model form error. MPACT is used to generate two-group homogenized cross sections for Westinghouse's AP1000 Region 4 lattice to evaluate the accuracy of the bounds. Error bounds calculated over a grid are compared to numerical data for uni-variate and multi-variate interpolation. The point-wise error bounds of a typical case matrix - two branches in each state variable - are displayed for bi-variate interpolation in the state variables: moderator density, fuel temperature, and boron concentration. The error bounds are shown to be highly accurate compared to numerical results, and in accordance with the underlying physics. We then discuss and show how the sources of error contribute to the total error, and consider the improvement of each error source. Finally, we mention future work such as propagating our cross section error bounds through a reactivity calculation. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Automated System-wide Event Detection and Classification Using Machine Learning on Synchrophasor Data

As the number of phasor measurement units (PMUs) deployed in a power system increases, and their data volume streamed to the control canter intensifies, operators are facing challenges related to the analysis of such data, which need to be observed and responded to as the measurements are displayed in the Control Room. Humans are generally unable to process such large amount of data efficiently and rapidly. There is an apparent need for automated ways to analyze the data, extract actionable information about occurrence of specific events, and characterize the events quickly and cost effectively. This paper discusses the use of machine learning (ML) to facilitate such tasks by providing automated, highly computationally efficient, and cost-effective ways of extracting actionable information from synchrophasor big data in real-time. We developed Big Data Smart (BDSmart) ML-based prototype tool for the Control Room use that automatically analyses data properties from synchrophasor system measurements taken across the three grid Interconnections in the USA (Western, Eastern and ERCOT). The data collected from several hundreds of PMUs located across the Interconnections over a period of two years have been made available for our extensive study. As a result, we were able to identify a number of big data properties that influence how ML methodology is applied to select, develop, train and test the data models that can eventually be used for the tool implementation. The resulting set of candidate algorithms spans unsupervised, supervised, semi-supervised and transfer-learning approaches. Many ML techniques, such as decision trees, multinomial logistic regression, feed-forward neural networks, K-nearest neighbor, multiclass support vector machine, and single and multi-channel convolutional neural networks, are implemented, and their performance is examined. We offer the results from testing the data models. The novelty of our study is in the approaches for bad data detection and mitigation, selection of a simplified feature for event detection, and data label improvements. As a result, we came up with a list of recommendations for the utilities on how to improve the PMU recording practices to cater to the future ML applications aimed at automating the analysis of synchrophasor data.

Synchrophasors, Machine Learning, System-wide Even↗

Integration of equitable resilience metrics into climate-informed electric utility planning processes: phase one

Working together, Sandia National Laboratories, Southern California Edison (SCE) - an Investor-Owned Utility (IOU) - and the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) are studying how electric utilities can use equity and resilience metrics to help inform the prioritization and sequencing of resilience-driven infrastructure investments. To this end, this project evaluated “Social Burden,” an equitable resilience metric which measures the potential impact of disruptions in access to non-electric critical services on people and estimates community resilience to these disruptions. The Social Burden was expanded to incorporate SCE’s existing equity metric and applied to evaluate the potential impacts from a range of climate-informed hypothetical outage scenarios developed under SCE’s 2022 Climate Adaptation Vulnerability Assessment. One baseline (“blue-sky”) state and eight different outage scenarios were evaluated to measure the potential impacts of the outages on non-electric infrastructure, critical services, and people. Key findings include: 1) the Social Burden framework is flexible enough to adapt to and build upon existing utility equity and/or resilience metrics, 2) Social Burden results highlight the high degree of non-electric service redundancy within the SCE service area with most (6/8) hypothetical outage scenarios predicted to increase people’s Social Burden by less than 10%; however, 3) access to critical services and people’s ability to obtain them is unequal and spatially clustered, meaning that there are some hypothetical outage scenarios (2/8) that will exert a higher toll on communities directly experiencing the outage as well as some nearby communities with pre-existing vulnerabilities. The report concludes with recommendations for potential use cases of the expanded Social Burden metric and identifies priority follow-on work. Potential use cases may include incorporating equity into IOU’s prioritization of climate resilience investments. Additionally, Social Burden analysis may provide additional data and insights to augment grid planning, potentially by identifying additional needs and/or prioritizing previously identified needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

MLP-NN vs Gauss-Newton files

-Input files for randomly selected subset data (30 instances) from primary dipole-dipole forward modeling data.-Inversion results in surfer grid format as well as in .DAT format.-Scatterplots for MLP-NN vs Gauss-Newton present in the excel sheet.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A new coordinate transformation for turbulent boundary layer flows

The transformation permits a uniform mesh to be used in the computational coordinate which extends across the layer. This coordinate transformation uses the local value of the skin friction coefficient to scale the thickness of the wall layer region, and the local maximum value of turbulent viscosity to scale the boundary-layer thickness. Results are presented for two dimensional boundary layers in both positive and negative pressure gradients and comparisons are made with experimental data and conventional variable-grid results for low speed turbulent boundary-layers. The cases chosen illustrate the capability of this new transformation to capture the boundary layer growth over the full extent of laminar, transitional, and turbulent flow with no grid adjustment as well as its ability to consistently enlarge the wall layer region for accurate shear stress representation. Results of mesh refinement studies using the new coordinate transformation are presented.

Carter, J. E.↗

Flight summaries and temperature climatology at airliner cruise altitudes from GASP (Global Atmospheric Sampling Program) data

Temperature data obtained by the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program (GASP) during the period March 1975 to July 1979 are compiled to form flight summaries of static air temperature and a geographic temperature climatology. The flight summaries include the height and location of the coldest observed temperature and the mean flight level, temperature and the standard deviation of temperature for each flight as well as for flight segments. These summaries are ordered by route and month. The temperature climatology was computed for all statistically independent temperture data for each flight. The grid used consists of 5 deg latitude, 30 deg longitude and 2000 feet vertical resolution from FL270 to FL430 for each month of the year. The number of statistically independent observations, their mean, standard deviation and the empirical 98, 50, 16, 2 and .3 probability percentiles are presented.

Nastrom, G. D.↗

Spectral study of wintertime kinetic energy of the Northern Hemisphere in the troposphere

Characteristics of the kinetic energy of wind fields at various pressure levels were analyzed, and significant wavenumbers in the wavenumber-frequency domain were identified. The nonlinear interaction terms of the kinetic energy equation were examined, and the distribution of the kinetic energy at the 850 mb, 500 mb, and 200 mb levels was calculated. A 5 deg latitude-longitude square grid was used, with NMC data for the 1975-1976 winter in the 20-60 deg N at 500 mb and 20-85 deg N for the 200 mb and 850 mb levels. The kinetic energy distribution was determined to be geography-dependent, with wavenumbers 6-9 westerly waves in the midfrequency range contributing significantly to kinetic energy maxima over the North Pacific and the east coast of North America. The contribution of the nonlinear interactions of these waves, which correspond to the longitudinal convergence of the kinetic energy flux, was found to be larger than the meridional convergence of the kinetic energy flux, and to occur mainly between 30-50 deg N. The nonlinear interactions were a negative contribution over the North Pacific at the 200 mb level.

Lee, H. N.↗

Comparative study of the phase of diurnal anisotropy on quiet and disturbed days on a long term basis up to recent period

The data from the world wide grid of neutron monitoring stations was analyzed for a comparative study of the phase of diurnal anisotropy on quiet and disturbed days on a long term basis up to recent period. It has been observed that the phase of the diurnal anisotropy on disturbed days where the value of the Ap-index is higher, is found to shift towards earlier hours in comparison to the phase of the diurnal anisotropy on quiet days where the value of Ap-index is lower on all the stations from 1965 to 71. Such a trend is not observable for the later period. This affect is found to be more pronounced on equatorial stations, in particular, in comparison to high latitude stations. It was derived from these observational facts that the relationship between Ap-index and the phase of the diurnal anisotropy is not invariant throughout the period of consideration. Furthermore, the exact cause of such a drastic change is not known, but it demonstrates very clearly that the interplanetary conditions which are responsible for both, diurnal anisotropy of cosmic ray intensity and the geomagnetic Ap-index variation, have drastically changed during the period 1971 and onwards.

Kumar, S.↗