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NASA NTRS2012

Usage of NASA's Near Real-Time Solar and Meteorological Data for Monitoring Building Energy Systems Using RETScreen International's Performance Analysis Module

This paper describes building energy system production and usage monitoring using examples from the new RETScreen Performance Analysis Module, called RETScreen Plus. The module uses daily meteorological (i.e., temperature, humidity, wind and solar, etc.) over a period of time to derive a building system function that is used to monitor building performance. The new module can also be used to target building systems with enhanced technologies. If daily ambient meteorological and solar information are not available, these are obtained over the internet from NASA's near-term data products that provide global meteorological and solar information within 3-6 days of real-time. The accuracy of the NASA data are shown to be excellent for this purpose enabling RETScreen Plus to easily detect changes in the system function and efficiency. This is shown by several examples, one of which is a new building at the NASA Langley Research Center that uses solar panels to provide electrical energy for building energy and excess energy for other uses. The system shows steady performance within the uncertainties of the input data. The other example involves assessing the reduction in energy usage by an apartment building in Sweden before and after an energy efficiency upgrade. In this case, savings up to 16% are shown.

Paul W Stackhouse, Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2012

CME Interaction with Large-Scale Coronal Structures

This talk presents some key observations that highlight the importance of CME interaction with other large scale structures such as CMEs and coronal holes . Such interactions depend on the phase of the solar cycle: during maximum, CMEs are ejected more frequently, so CME-CME interaction becomes dominant. During the rise phase, the polar coronal holes are strong, so the interaction between polar coronal holes and CMEs is important, which also leads to a possible increase in the number of interplanetary CMEs observed as magnetic clouds. During the declining phase, there are more equatorial coronal holes, so CMEs originating near these coronal holes are easily deflected. CMEs can be deflected toward and away from the Sun-Earth line resulting in interesting geospace consequences. For example, the largest geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 23 was due to a CME that was deflected towards the Sun-earth line from E22. CME deflection away from the Sun-Earth line diminishes the chance of a CME producing a geomagnetic storm. CME interaction in the coronagraphic field of view was first identified using enhanced radio emission, which is an indication of acceleration of low energy (approx.10 keV) electrons in the interaction site. CME interaction, therefore, may also have implications for proton acceleration. For example, solar energetic particle events typically occur with a higher intensity, whenever multiple CMEs occur in quick succession from the same source region. CME deflection may also have implications to the arrival of energetic particles to earth because magnetic connectivity may be changed by the interaction. I illustrate the above points using examples from SOHO, STEREO, Wind, and ACE data .

Gopalswarny, Nat↗

NASA NTRS2012

Approach to an Affordable and Productive Space Transportation System

This paper describes an approach for creating space transportation architectures that are affordable, productive, and sustainable. The architectural scope includes both flight and ground system elements, and focuses on their compatibility to achieve a technical solution that is operationally productive, and also affordable throughout its life cycle. Previous papers by the authors and other members of the Space Propulsion Synergy Team (SPST) focused on space flight system engineering methods, along with operationally efficient propulsion system concepts and technologies. This paper follows up previous work by using a structured process to derive examples of conceptual architectures that integrate a number of advanced concepts and technologies. The examples are not intended to provide a near-term alternative architecture to displace current near-term design and development activity. Rather, the examples demonstrate an approach that promotes early investments in advanced system concept studies and trades (flight and ground), as well as in advanced technologies with the goal of enabling highly affordable, productive flight and ground space transportation systems.

McCleskey, Carey M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Using Ensemble Decisions and Active Selection to Improve Low-Cost Labeling for Multi-View Data

This paper seeks to improve low-cost labeling in terms of training set reliability (the fraction of correctly labeled training items) and test set performance for multi-view learning methods. Co-training is a popular multiview learning method that combines high-confidence example selection with low-cost (self) labeling. However, co-training with certain base learning algorithms significantly reduces training set reliability, causing an associated drop in prediction accuracy. We propose the use of ensemble labeling to improve reliability in such cases. We also discuss and show promising results on combining low-cost ensemble labeling with active (low-confidence) example selection. We unify these example selection and labeling strategies under collaborative learning, a family of techniques for multi-view learning that we are developing for distributed, sensor-network environments.

machine learning↗

NASA NTRS2009

Influence Diagram Use With Respect to Technology Planning and Investment

Influence diagrams are relatively simple, but powerful, tools for assessing the impact of choices or resource allocations on goals or requirements. They are very general and can be used on a wide range of problems. They can be used for any problem that has defined goals, a set of factors that influence the goals or the other factors, and a set of inputs. Influence diagrams show the relationship among a set of results and the attributes that influence them and the inputs that influence the attributes. If the results are goals or requirements of a program, then the influence diagram can be used to examine how the requirements are affected by changes to technology investment. This paper uses an example to show how to construct and interpret influence diagrams, how to assign weights to the inputs and attributes, how to assign weights to the transfer functions (influences), and how to calculate the resulting influences of the inputs on the results. A study is also presented as an example of how using influence diagrams can help in technology planning and investment. The Space Propulsion Synergy Team (SPST) used this technique to examine the impact of R&D spending on the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of a space transportation system. The question addressed was the effect on the recurring and the non-recurring portions of LCC of the proportion of R&D resources spent to impact technology objectives versus the proportion spent to impact operational dependability objectives. The goals, attributes, and the inputs were established. All of the linkages (influences) were determined. The weighting of each of the attributes and each of the linkages was determined. Finally the inputs were varied and the impacts on the LCC determined and are presented. The paper discusses how each of these was accomplished both for credibility and as an example for future studies using influence diagrams for technology planning and investment planning.

Levack, Daniel J. H.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Creating Interactive Graphical Overlays in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) Using Shapefiles and DGM Files

Graphical overlays can be created in real-time in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) using shapefiles or DARE Graphics Metafile (DGM) files. This presentation describes how to create graphical overlays on-the-fly for AWIPS, by using two examples of AWIPS applications that were created by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU). The first example is the Anvil Threat Corridor Forecast Tool, which produces a shapefile that depicts a graphical threat corridor of the forecast movement of thunderstorm anvil clouds, based on the observed or forecast upper-level winds. This tool is used by the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) and 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to analyze the threat of natural or space vehicle-triggered lightning over a location. The second example is a launch and landing trajectory tool that produces a DGM file that plots the ground track of space vehicles during launch or landing. The trajectory tool can be used by SMG and the 45 WS forecasters to analyze weather radar imagery along a launch or landing trajectory. Advantages of both file types will be listed.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

NASA NTRS2007

Creating Interactive Graphical Overlays in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System Using Shapefiles and DGM Files

Graphical overlays can be created in real-time in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) using shapefiles or Denver AWIPS Risk Reduction and Requirements Evaluation (DARE) Graphics Metafile (DGM) files. This presentation describes how to create graphical overlays on-the-fly for AWIPS, by using two examples of AWIPS applications that were created by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) located at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), Florida. The first example is the Anvil Threat Corridor Forecast Tool, which produces a shapefile that depicts a graphical threat corridor of the forecast movement of thunderstorm anvil clouds, based on the observed or forecast upper-level winds. This tool is used by the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) at Johnson Space Center, Texas and 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) at CCAFS to analyze the threat of natural or space vehicle-triggered lightning over a location. The second example is a launch and landing trajectory tool that produces a DGM file that plots the ground track of space vehicles during launch or landing. The trajectory tool can be used by SMG and the 45 WS forecasters to analyze weather radar imagery along a launch or landing trajectory. The presentation will list the advantages and disadvantages of both file types for creating interactive graphical overlays in future AWIPS applications. Shapefiles are a popular format used extensively in Geographical Information Systems. They are usually used in AWIPS to depict static map backgrounds. A shapefile stores the geometry and attribute information of spatial features in a dataset (ESRI 1998). Shapefiles can contain point, line, and polygon features. Each shapefile contains a main file, index file, and a dBASE table. The main file contains a record for each spatial feature, which describes the feature with a list of its vertices. The index file contains the offset of each record from the beginning of the main file. The dBASE table contains records for each attribute. Attributes are commonly used to label spatial features. Shapefiles can be viewed, but not created in AWIPS. As a result, either third-party software can be installed on an AWIPS workstation, or new software must be written to create shapefiles in the correct format.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

NASA NTRS2013

Physical and Chemical Toeholds for Exoplanet Bioastronomy

If a search for exoplanet life were mounted today, the likely focus would be to detect oxygen (or ozone) in the atmosphere of a water-bearing rocky planet orbiting roughly 1AU from a G-type star. This appropriately conservative and practical default is necessary in large part because biological input on the question of where and how to look for life has progressed little beyond a purely empirical reliance on the example of terrestrial biology. However, fundamental physical and chemical considerations may impose significant yet universal constraints on biological potential. The liquid water + oxygen paradigm will be considered as an example, with a focus on the question, is liquid water a prerequisite for life? . Life requires a solvent to mediate interactions among biological molecules. A key class of these interactions is molecular recognition with high specificity, which is essential for high fidelity catalysis and (especially) information processing. For example, to correctly reproduce a string consisting of 600,000 units of information (e.g., 600 kilobases, equivalent to the genome of the smallest free living terrestrial organisms) with a 90% success rate requires specificity greater than 10(exp 7):1 for the target molecule vs. incorrect alternatives. Such specificity requires (i) that the correct molecular association is energetically stabilized by at least 40 kJ/mol relative to alternatives, and (ii) that the system is able to sample among possible states (alternative molecular associations) rapidly enough to allow the system to fall under thermodynamic control and express the energetic stabilization. We argue that electrostatic interactions are required to confer the necessary energetic stabilization vs. a large library of molecular alternatives, and that a solvent with polarity and dielectric properties comparable to water is required for the system to sample among possible states and express thermodynamic control. Electrostatic associations can be made in non-polar solvents, but the resulting complexes are too stable to be "unmade" with sufficient frequency to confer thermodynamic control on the system. Such considerations suggest that water, or a solvent with properties very like water, is necessary to support high-fidelity information processing a feature that must be common to all biology and can therefore be considered a critical prerequisite for life.

Hoehler, Tori↗

NASA NTRS2013

Semi-Supervised Eigenbasis Novelty Detection

Recent discoveries in high-time-resolution radio astronomy data have focused attention on a new class of events. Fast transients are rare pulses of radio frequency energy lasting from microseconds to seconds that might be produced by a variety of exotic astrophysical phenomena. For example, X-ray bursts, neutron stars, and active galactic nuclei are all possible sources of short-duration, transient radio signals. It is difficult to anticipate where such signals might appear, and they are most commonly discovered through analysis of high-time- resolution data that had been collected for other purposes. Transients are often faint and difficult to detect, so improved detection algorithms can directly benefit the science yield of all such commensal monitoring. A new detection algorithm learns a low-dimensional linear manifold for describing the normal data. High reconstruction error indicates a novel signal that does not match the patterns of normal data. One unsupervised portion of the manifold model adapts its representation in response to recent data. A second supervised portion of the model is made of a basis trained in advance using labeled examples of RFI; this prevents false positives due to these events. For a linear model, an orthonormalization operation is used to combine these bases prior to the anomaly detection decision. Another novel aspect of the approach lies in combining basis vectors learned in an unsupervised, online fashion from the data stream with supervised basis vectors learned in advance from known examples of false alarms. Adaptive, data-driven detection is achieved that is also informed by existing domain knowledge about signals that may be statistically anomalous, but are not interesting and should therefore be ignored. The method was evaluated using data from the Parkes Multibeam Survey. This data set was originally collected to search for pulsars, which are astronomical sources that emit radio pulses at regular periods. However, several non-pulsar anomalies have recently been discovered in this dataset, making it a compelling test case. By explicitly filtering known false alarm patterns, the approach yields significantly better performance than current transient detection methods.

Wagstaff, Kiri L.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Survey of DMSP Charging Events During the Period Preceding Cycle 23 Solar Maximum

It has been well established that POLAR orbiting satellites can see mild to severe charging levels during solar minimum conditions (Frooninckx and Sojka, 1992, Anderson and Koons, 1996, Anderson, 2012). However, spacecraft operations during solar maximum cannot be considered safe from auroral charging. Recently, we have seen examples of high level charging during the recent approach to solar maximum. We present here a survey of charging events seen by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites (F16, F17) during the solstices of 2011 and 2012. In this survey, we summarize the condition necessary for charging to occur in this environment, we describe how the lower than normal maximum conditions are conducive to the environment conditions necessary for charging in the POLAR orbit, and we show examples of the more extreme charging events, sometimes exceeding 1 kV, during this time period. We also show examples of other interesting phenomenological events seen in the DMSP data, but which are not considered surface charging events, and discuss the differences.

Parker, Linda Neergaard↗

NASA NTRS2013

Survey of DMSP Charging During the Period Preceding Cycle 24 Solar Maximum

It has been well established that polar orbiting satellites can see mild to severe charging levels during solar minimum conditions (Frooninckx and Sojka, 1992, Anderson and Koons, 1996, Anderson, 2012). However, spacecraft operations during solar maximum cannot be considered safe from auroral charging. Recently, we have seen examples of high level charging during the recent approach to solar maximum. We present here a survey of charging events seen by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites (F16, F17) during the solstices of 2011 and 2012. In this survey, we summarize the condition necessary for charging to occur in this environment, we describe how the lower than normal maximum conditions are conducive to the environment conditions necessary for charging in the polar orbit, and we show examples of the more extreme charging events, sometimes exceeding 1 kV, during this time period. We also show examples of other interesting phenomenological events seen in the DMSP data, but which are not considered surface charging events, and discuss the differences.

NeergaardParker, L.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Tethered Satellites as an Enabling Platform for Operational Space Weather Monitoring Systems

Tethered satellites offer the potential to be an important enabling technology to support operational space weather monitoring systems. Space weather "nowcasting" and forecasting models rely on assimilation of near-real-time (NRT) space environment data to provide warnings for storm events and deleterious effects on the global societal infrastructure. Typically, these models are initialized by a climatological model to provide "most probable distributions" of environmental parameters as a function of time and space. The process of NRT data assimilation gently pulls the climate model closer toward the observed state (e.g., via Kalman smoothing) for nowcasting, and forecasting is achieved through a set of iterative semi-empirical physics-based forward-prediction calculations. Many challenges are associated with the development of an operational system, from the top-level architecture (e.g., the required space weather observatories to meet the spatial and temporal requirements of these models) down to the individual instruments capable of making the NRT measurements. This study focuses on the latter challenge: we present some examples of how tethered satellites (from 100s of m to 20 km) are uniquely suited to address certain shortfalls in our ability to measure critical environmental parameters necessary to drive these space weather models. Examples include long baseline electric field measurements, magnetized ionospheric conductivity measurements, and the ability to separate temporal from spatial irregularities in environmental parameters. Tethered satellite functional requirements are presented for two examples of space environment observables.

Gilchrist, Brian E.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Effects of Varying Proportions of Glass on Reflectance Spectra of HED Polymict Breccias

Some meteorites contain significant amounts of glass, which, in most cases, probably results from impact processes on parent bodies.. Yamato 82202 is an example of one of the unequilibrated eucrites that contains significant proportions of impact glass distributed as veins throughout the meteorite. In other cases, fragments of glass are distributed throughout polymict breccias. For example, the polymict eucrite EET 87509 contains rare angular fragments of devitrified glass. Proportions of glass in most of these meteorites and in lithic clasts within these meteorites may vary locally from small amounts (less than one percent) to much larger amounts (subequal proportions of glass and mineral material). For example, some fragments within the South African polymict eucrite Macibini contain approximately 50% glass. The presence of these variable proportions of meteorite glass confirm the increased recognition that impact processes played an important role in the histories of asteroidal bodies. This study attempts to quantify the effects of a glass component on reflectance spectra by analyzing in the laboratory mixtures of varying proportions of a well-characterized HED polymict breccia and glass derived by melting a bulk sample of that breccia.

Buchanan, P. C.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Menstrual Cycle Control in Female Astronauts and the Associated Risk of Venous Thromboembolism

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common and serious condition affecting approximately 1‐2 per 1000 people in the USA every year. There have been no documented case reports of VTE in female astronauts during spaceflight in the published literature. Some female astronauts use hormonal contraception to control their menstrual cycles and it is currently unknown how this affects their risk of VTE. Current terrestrial risk prediction models do not account for the spaceflight environment and the physiological changes associated with it. We therefore aim to estimate a specific risk score for female astronauts who are taking hormonal contraception for menstrual cycle control, to deduce whether they are at an elevated risk of VTE. A systematic review of the literature was conducted in order to identify and quantify known terrestrial risk factors for VTE. Studies involving analogues for the female astronaut population were also reviewed, for example, military personnel who use the oral contraceptive pill for menstrual suppression. Well known terrestrial risk factors, for example, obesity or smoking would not be applicable to our study population as these candidates would have been excluded during astronaut selection processes. Other risk factors for VTE include hormonal therapy, lower limb paralysis, physical inactivity, hyperhomocysteinemia, low methylfolate levels and minor injuries, all of which potentially apply to crew members LSAH data will be assessed to identify which of these risk factors are applicable to our astronaut population. Using known terrestrial risk data, an overall estimated risk of VTE for female astronauts using menstrual cycle control methods will therefore be calculated. We predict this will be higher than the general population but not significantly higher requiring thromboprophylaxis. This study attempts to delineate what is assumed to be true of our astronaut population, for example, they are known to be a healthy fit cohort of individuals, and combine physiological impacts of spaceflight (cephalic fluid shifts, lower limb inactivity) to understand specific risks associated with hormonal contraception.

Jain, Varsha↗

NASA NTRS2013

Analyses Made to Order: Using Transformation to Rapidly Configure a Multidisciplinary Environment

Aerospace problems are highly multidisciplinary. Four or more major disciplines are involved in analyzing any particular vehicle. Moreover, the choice of implementation technology of various subsystems can lead to a change of leading domain or reformation of the driving equations. An excellent example is the change of expertise required to consider aircraft built from composite or metallic structures, or those propelled by chemical or electrical thrusters. Another example is in the major reconfiguration of handling and stability equations with different control surface configuration (e.g., canards, t-tail v four-post tail). Combinatorial problems are also commonplace anytime that a major system is to be designed. If there are only 5 attributes of a design to consider with 4 different options, this is already 1024 options. Adding just 5 more dimensions to the study explodes the space to over one million. Even generous assumptions like the idea that only 10% of the combinations are physically feasible can only contain the problem for so long. To make matters worse, the simple number of combinations is only the beginning. Combining the issue of trade space size with the need to reformulate the design problem for many of the possibilities makes life exponentially more difficult. Advances in software modeling approaches have led to the development of model-driven architecture. This approach uses the transformation of models into inferred models (e.g. inferred execution traces from state machines) or the skeletons for code generation. When the emphasis on transformation is applied to aerospace, it becomes possible to exploit redundancy in the information specified in multiple domain models into a unified system model. F1urther, it becomes possible to overcome the combinatorial nature of specifying integrated system behavior by manually combining the equations governing a given component technology. Transformations from a system specification combined with a system-analysis mapping specification enable one-click combination of domain analyses. This is a flexibility that has been missing from many engineering codes, which often entangle design specification and physical examination much more than is required to conduct the analysis. This capability has been investigated and cultivated within the DARPA F6 program by a team of JPL and Phoenix Integration engineers building the Adapatable Systems Design and Analysis (ASDA) framework. By embracing system modeling with SysML and the Query-View-Transformation (QVT) language, the ASDA team has been able to build a flexible, easily reconfigurable framework for building up and solving large tradespaces. Examples of application and lessons learned in building the framework will be described in this paper. In addition, the motivation will be laid for various tool vendors to develop open model description standards while being able to maintain competitive advantage through proprietary algorithms and approaches. These standards will also be compared to the underpinnings of model-driven architecture and the OMG standards of the Meta-Object Facility (MOF), SysML, and QVT.

Cole, Bjorn↗

NASA NTRS2015

Formation and Control of Fluidic Species

This invention generally relates to systems and methods for the formation and/or control of fluidic species, and articles produced by such systems and methods. In some cases, the invention involves unique fluid channels, systems, controls, and/or restrictions, and combinations thereof. In certain embodiments, the invention allows fluidic streams (which can be continuous or discontinuous, i.e., droplets) to be formed and/or combined, at a variety of scales, including microfluidic scales. In one set of embodiments, a fluidic stream may be produced from a channel, where a cross-sectional dimension of the fluidic stream is smaller than that of the channel, for example, through the use of structural elements, other fluids, and/or applied external fields, etc. In some cases, a Taylor cone may be produced. In another set of embodiments, a fluidic stream may be manipulated in some fashion, for example, to create tubes (which may be hollow or solid), droplets, nested tubes or droplets, arrays of tubes or droplets, meshes of tubes, etc. In some cases, droplets produced using certain embodiments of the invention may be charged or substantially charged, which may allow their further manipulation, for instance, using applied external fields. Non-limiting examples of such manipulations include producing charged droplets, coalescing droplets (especially at the microscale), synchronizing droplet formation, aligning molecules within the droplet, etc. In some cases, the droplets and/or the fluidic streams may include colloids, cells, therapeutic agents, and the like.

Link, Darren Roy↗

NASA NTRS2015

Re-Computation of Numerical Results Contained in NACA Report No. 496

An extensive examination of NACA Report No. 496 (NACA 496), "General Theory of Aerodynamic Instability and the Mechanism of Flutter," by Theodore Theodorsen, is described. The examination included checking equations and solution methods and re‐computing interim quantities and all numerical examples in NACA 496. The checks revealed that NACA 496 contains computational shortcuts (time‐ and effort‐saving devices for engineers of the time) and clever artifices (employed in its solution methods), but, unfortunately, also contains numerous tripping points (aspects of NACA 496 that have the potential to cause confusion) and some errors. The re‐computations were performed employing the methods and procedures described in NACA 496, but using modern computational tools. With some exceptions, the magnitudes and trends of the original results were in fair‐to‐very‐good agreement with the re‐computed results. The exceptions included what are speculated to be computational errors in the original in some instances and transcription errors in the original in others. Independent flutter calculations were performed and, in all cases, including those where the original and re‐computed results differed significantly, were in excellent agreement with the re‐computed results. Appendix A contains NACA 496; Appendix B contains a Matlab(Reistered) program that performs the re‐computation of results; Appendix C presents three alternate solution methods, with examples, for the two‐degree‐of-freedom solution method of NACA 496; Appendix D contains the three‐degree‐of‐freedom solution method (outlined in NACA 496 but never implemented), with examples.

Perry, Boyd, III↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Framework for the Cross-Sectoral Integration of Multi-Model Impact Projections: Land Use Decisions Under Climate Impacts Uncertainties

Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impactmodel setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making

farmlands↗