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At least 1,189 records · Page 66

X-ray evidence of coronal preflare emission

Soft X-ray images from the Skylab AS&E telescopes are used to determine whether systematic preflare X-ray brightenings exist either at the flare site or in adjacent parts of the active region, the characteristics of such brightenings, and their implications for the theory of preflare coronal conditions. A statistical study is given of preflare X-ray events, along with an analysis of the best observed events, including comparisons with high time resolution H-alpha data. It is concluded that a majority of the flares studied may have X-ray preflare features, which were typically not at the flare site, but rather adjacent to the active region neutral line. A single feature was evident in most of the preflare events.

Webb, D. F.↗

GEM-CEDAR Study of Ionospheric Energy Input and Joule Dissipation

We are studying ionospheric model performance for six events selected for the GEM-CEDAR modeling challenge. DMSP measurements of electric and magnetic fields are converted into Poynting Flux values that estimate the energy input into the ionosphere. Models generate rates of ionospheric Joule dissipation that are compared to the energy influx. Models include the ionosphere models CTIPe and Weimer and the ionospheric electrodynamic outputs of global magnetosphere models SWMF, LFM, and OpenGGCM. This study evaluates the model performance in terms of overall balance between energy influx and dissipation and tests the assumption that Joule dissipation occurs locally where electromagnetic energy flux enters the ionosphere. We present results in terms of skill scores now commonly used in metrics and validation studies and we can measure the agreement in terms of temporal and spatial distribution of dissipation (i.e, location of auroral activity) along passes of the DMSP satellite with the passes' proximity to the magnetic pole and solar wind activity level.

Rastaetter, Lutz↗

Oceanic heat content variability in the Tropical Pacific during the 1982-1983 El Nino

A linear, multimode model forced by observed winds is used to investigate anomolous heat transport and storage during the 1982-1983 El Nino. The study compliments the work of Wyrtki (1985) and of Zebiak and Cane (1987) and contains the ocean dynamics invoked by both these studies to explain heat content anomalies. Model hindcasts are compared with observational evidence derived from the island sea level network. The meridional distribution of heat storage and the components of heat transport are considered. It is found that the mechanisms contributing to heat transport out of bands of latitude symmetric about the equator are isolated and related to the wind anomalies and wave dynamics usually associated with ENSO events. It is noted that although the spatial and temporal distribution of oceanic heat anomalies necessary to initiate an ENSO event can be determined only by studying coupled ocean-atmosphere models, an examination of the oceanic component alone is useful in determining constraints imposed by ocean dynamics.

Springer, Scott R.↗

Designing an Optimal Kilonova Search Using DECam for Gravitational-wave Events

We address the problem of optimally identifying all kilonovae detected via gravitational-wave emission in the upcoming LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing run, O4, which is expected to be sensitive to a factor of ~7 more binary neutron star (BNS) alerts than previously. Electromagnetic follow-up of all but the brightest of these new events will require >1 m telescopes, for which limited time is available. We present an optimized observing strategy for the DECam during O4. We base our study on simulations of gravitational-wave events expected for O4 and wide-prior kilonova simulations. We derive the detectabilities of events for realistic observing conditions. We optimize our strategy for confirming a kilonova while minimizing telescope time. For a wide range of kilonova parameters, corresponding to a fainter kilonova compared to GW170817/AT 2017gfo, we find that, with this optimal strategy, the discovery probability for electromagnetic counterparts with the DECam is ~80% at the nominal BNS gravitational-wave detection limit for O4 (190 Mpc), which corresponds to an ~30% improvement compared to the strategy adopted during the previous observing run. For more distant events (~330 Mpc), we reach an ~60% probability of detection, a factor of ~2 increase. For a brighter kilonova model dominated by the blue component that reproduces the observations of GW170817/AT 2017gfo, we find that we can reach ~90% probability of detection out to 330 Mpc, representing an increase of ~20%, while also reducing the total telescope time required to follow up events by ~20%.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Evolution and interaction of interplanetary shocks

Whang's unsteady, one-dimensional, one-fluid MHD model is used to carry out a simulation study of the evolution of the solar wind based on two shock events over a distance of the order of 10 AU in the outer heliosphere. The study is based on the observation of two events, each observed by two or more spacecraft. The results show that the shock process, including the formation, collision, and merging of shocks, dominates the dynamical evolution of large-scale solar wind structures. In the outer heliosphere, the large-scale solar wind and magnetic field evolve into a much simpler structure, and MHD shocks are present as a principal component of the solar wind. The simulation results shed new light on the interaction and evolution of large interplanetary streams.

Whang, Y. C.↗

Satellite Observations to Monitor Subarctic Rain-On-Snow Events

Rain-on-snow (ROS) events have been the focus of numerous studies in the past five years. Their characteristics(frequency, extent, and duration) represent a new and relevant climate indicator. However, monitoring ROS occurrences remotely using satellite observations is deemed challenging. The ROS events can be sporadic, of very different intensities, and the outcome of the rain water uncertain (either it freezes in the snow cover or runs off). Using passive and active microwave remote sensing observations, our study proposes new approaches to monitor the occurrence of ROS events.Specifically, we utilize observations from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2), and Global Precipitation Measurements (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI), and GPM Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR). We compare our ROS detection against weather stations and recently published algorithms using a different set of microwave frequencies.

Brucker, Ludovic↗

Global Landslide Forecasting System for Hazard Assessment and Situational Awareness

Landslides triggered by extreme rainfall can be devastating, resulting in loss of life, property, and infrastructure. Landslide forecasting systems provide an opportunity to build awareness of potential hazards and ultimately take preemptive measures. There is currently a dearth of forecasting systems that provide regional or global coverage, but these systems can offer important situational awareness in data-sparse, ungauged, or large-scale catchments. A near global, primarily satellite-based system calledthe Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) provides near real-time estimates of potential landslide hazard and exposure around the world. In this work, a precipitation forecast module is introduced into LHASA to complement the existing LHASA framework and provide an estimate of landslide hazard up to three days in advanceat 1km resolution. The model-based Goddard Earth Observing System-Forward Processing (GEOS-FP) precipitation forecast product is used as the forcing input for the model in place of the satellite-based Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission product. Soil moisture and snow depth from the GEOS-FP assimilated product are also incorporated. The study period January 2020–January 2021 is usedto test the model performance against the LHASA near real-time estimates at multiple spatiotemporal scales. Validation of the model is carried out using a collection of rainfall-triggered landslide inventories from around the world as case studies to demonstrate the potential utility and limitations of this system.The rescaling of the GEOS-FP precipitation product is a critical step in incorporating the forecasted precipitation data within LHASA-Forecast (LHASA-F). Combining different streams of forecasted data within the LHASA-F framework shows promise, particularly for larger events at the 1-and 2-day lead time for events. Results indicate that for the case studies evaluated, the LHASA-F is generally able to resolve major landslide events triggered by extreme rainfall, such as from tropical cyclones. The analysis shows that landslide forecast outputs may be represented differently depending on the user’s needs. This framework serves as a first milestone in providing a global predictive view of landslide hazard.

Landslide forecasting system↗

Tidal Disruption Event Hosts Are Green and Centrally Concentrated: Signatures of a Post-merger System

We study the properties of the galaxies hosting the first 19 tidal disruption events(TDEs)detected with the Zwicky Transient Facility(ZTF)within the context of a carefully constructed, representative host galaxy sample. We find that the ZTF sample of TDE hosts is dominated by compact “green valley” galaxies. After we restrict the comparison sample to galaxies with a similar concentration, as measured by the Sérsic index, we find this green valley overrepresentation is even larger. That is, concentrated red sequence galaxies are not producing TDEs at elevated levels. We present host galaxy spectra that show that E+A galaxies are overrepresented in the ZTF sample by a factor of≈22, which is lower than previous TDE host galaxy studies have found. We find that this overrepresentation can be fully accounted for when taking into account the masses, colors, and Sérsic indices of the ZTF TDE hosts. The combination of both green colors and high Sérsic index of the typical TDE host galaxy could be explained if the TDE rate is temporarily enhanced following a merger that leads to a higher central concentration of stars.

Erica Hammerstein↗

Carbon and Water Dynamics in the Sandhills of South Carolina

An investigation was conducted to better understand the relationship between the carbon and precipitation cycles in the atmosphere. The carbon cycle is an important biogeochemical process in which a plant takes in carbon during photosynthesis and releases it during respiration. Why plants take or release carbon can be explained by various environmental conditions throughout the year. By using eddy-covariance measurements of rainfall and evaporation, we can describe the carbon cycle in the sandhills of South Carolina. We examine those measurements in comparison to soil water over the course of five years at an eddy covariance tower, located in a long leaf pine forest at the Savannah River Site in Aiken, South Carolina. The study illustrates how ecosystem fluxes respond to rainfall events and drought periods on site, specifically the lowest and highest moisture periods through the year. Additionally, this study also explores how resistant the store of carbon is during a drought and its resilience when rains return.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation of Hurricane Harvey flood event through coupled hydrologic-hydraulic models: Challenges and next steps

Using the 2017 Hurricane Harvey flood event as a test case, this study set up a series of sensitivity analyses to highlight three challenges associated with large-scale flood inundation modeling, including (a) model parameterization, (b) errors in digital elevation models, and (c) effects of reservoir retention. Driven by radar-based hourly rainfall data, a series of hydrologic-hydraulic models including the VIC hydrologic model, RAPID routing model, and Flood2D-GPU hydrodynamic model are set up over Harris County, Texas, to simulate flood inundation and hazards. The results demonstrate the importance of hydrologic parameters in improving flood modeling. For a large flood event such as Hurricane Harvey, the effect of the initial water depths is insignificant. The Manning's n values may increase the peak water depth by ~1%, the flood extents by 65km 2 , and the high danger zone by ~6%. On the contrary, the bathymetry correction factors may reduce the flood extent by ~1.4% and the high-danger zone by ~4%. Reducing the reservoir storage capacity to 1% may increase the flood extent by ~4% and the high-danger zone by ~17%. This study may provide supporting information to guide and prioritize the development of future high-performance computing hydrodynamic large-scale flood simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The frequency of long-duration solar X-ray events

The rate of occurrence of coronal and interplanetary phenomena during the solar sunspot cycle was studied based on nearly continuous satellite data for long-duration events in the period 1969-1982. The data were obtained using the NRL SOLRAD and the NOAA GOES spacecraft for each year in the interval. The duration of the X-ray events was defined as the time for the logarithm of the 1-8 A flux to return to approximately 10 percent of the pre-event level. The total number of X-ray events is plotted next to the annual sunspot number for the interval 1969-1982. It is shown that the long duration of X-ray events was not related to the sunspot cycle, particularly events of 6 hr or more.

Koomen, M. J.↗

HALOE Observations of Perturbations in High Northern Latitude NO and O3 During the April 2002 Solar Storm Episode

The April 2002 solar storm event provides a unique opportunity to study the resulting effects on upper atmospheric constituents such as NO and O3. Two sources may perturb these constituents. For a magnetic-storm-source, energetic particles collide with and dissociate N2 in the lower thermosphere to produce excited nitrogen atoms which then combine with O to produce NO. The NO subsequently is transported down to lower altitudes where it reacts with and thus destroys mesospheric and possibly stratospheric ozone. For a solar-particle-event-source, high energy particles penetrate directly into the mesosphere, break apart N2 and water vapor, creating NOx and HOx to destroy ozone in the middle atmosphere. We present perturbations in high northern latitude NO and O3 as measured by the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite between April 20-27. HALOE observations show an order of magnitude increase in mesospheric NO and a factor of approximately 2 decrease in mesospheric O3. We will also compare these observations with NASA GSFC 2D model computations.

Anderson, John↗

Identification and analysis of quasielastic neutrino interactions at MicroBooNE

The study of neutrino oscillations and the extraction of high-accuracy neutrino mixing angles, CP phases, and mass differences, are at the forefront of the worldwide current experimental physics research. Neutrino experiments aim towards a high-precision extraction of these parameters, which requires a good knowledge of the interaction with the detector and target materials. In the energy range most relevant for oscillation studies ($E_\nu \sim$ 0.3 to 3 GeV), the dominant neutrino nucleus interaction is quasi-elastic (QE) scattering. Charged-current quasielastic (CCQE) scattering is the process by which the neutrino produces a charged lepton and removes a single intact nucleon from the nucleus, without producing any additional particles. It is one of the simplest lepton--nucleus interactions in the energy regime relevant for neutrino oscillation experiments. This thesis describes the identification and analysis of CCQE events in a data sample collected in the MicroBooNE detector at Fermilab during 2016; It discusses the isolation of the signal and the background rejection, as well as the extraction of the exclusive flux--integrated cross--sections for neutrino CCQE scattering off argon, $\nu_{\mu} + ^{40}$Ar$\to \mu^{-} + p$, as a function of the kinematics of the outgoing particles emerging from the interaction. We extracted $ \frac{d\sigma}{dp_{\mu}}, \frac{d\sigma}{d\cos\theta_{\mu}}, \frac{d\sigma}{d\phi_{\mu}}$, and $ \frac{d\sigma}{dp_{p}}, \frac{d\sigma}{d\cos\theta_{p}}, \frac{d\sigma}{d\phi_{p}}$. Here $p_p$,$\theta_{p}$,$\phi_p$ ($p_\mu$,$\theta_{\mu}$,$\phi_\mu$) are the momentum and scattering angles of the outgoing proton (muon). The data are in good agreement with predictions of GENIE, the standard event generator used for neutrino oscillation studies. The data confirms and constrains calcu lations essential for the extraction of oscillation parameters.

Cohen, Erez O.↗

Mineralogical and Al-Mg Isotopic Study of Fine-Grained Ca-Al-Rich Inclusions

Fine-grained Ca-Al-rich inclusions (FGIs) in carbonaceous chondrites are interpreted as aggregates of nebular gas-solid condensates that escaped significant melting.Thus far, a small number of FGIs from CV3 chondrites have been analyzed, showing a range of (26Al/27Al)0=~5.4×10−5to ~3.4×10−5.These values are similar to (26Al/27Al)0inferred from coarse-grained, igneous CAIs (CGIs) from CV3 chondrites.This observed spread in (26Al/27Al)0values indicates the CAI formation over an extended time period. However, more analyses are needed to determine if the FGIs formed continuously over a significant time period or by multiple episodic events of nebular condensation. In this study, we present high-precision Al-Mg isotopic data of FGIs from reduced CV3 chondrites to better constrain their formation timescale relative to CGIs in CV3 chondrites, as well as to smaller FGIs in CO3 chondrites. This isotopic study is coordinated with a FIB/TEM study to elucidate the origin and nature of FGIs in the petrologic and mineralogical context.

J Han↗

Material-dependent and material-independent selection processes in the frontal and parietal lobes: an event-related fMRI investigation of response competition

The present study used the flanker task [Percept. Psychophys. 16 (1974) 143] to identify neural structures that support response selection processes, and to determine which of these structures respond differently depending on the type of stimulus material associated with the response. Participants performed two versions of the flanker task while undergoing event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Both versions of the task required participants to respond to a central stimulus regardless of the responses associated with simultaneously presented flanking stimuli, but one used colored circle stimuli and the other used letter stimuli. Competition-related activation was identified by comparing Incongruent trials, in which the flanker stimuli indicated a different response than the central stimulus, to Neutral stimuli, in which the flanker stimuli indicated no response. A region within the right inferior frontal gyrus exhibited significantly more competition-related activation for the color stimuli, whereas regions within the middle frontal gyri of both hemispheres exhibited more competition-related activation for the letter stimuli. The border of the right middle frontal and inferior frontal gyri and the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) were significantly activated by competition for both types of stimulus materials. Posterior foci demonstrated a similar pattern: left inferior parietal cortex showed greater competition-related activation for the letters, whereas right parietal cortex was significantly activated by competition for both materials. These findings indicate that the resolution of response competition invokes both material-dependent and material-independent processes.

Psychomotor Performance/physiology↗

Primary task event-related potentials related to different aspects of information processing

The results of two studies which investigated the relationships between cognitive processing and components of transient event-related potentials (ERPs) are presented in a task in which mental workload was manipulated. The task involved the monitoring of an array of discrete readouts for values that went out of bounds, and was somewhat analogous to tasks performed in cockpits. The ERPs elicited by the changing readouts varied with the number of readouts being monitored, the number of monitored readouts that were close to going out of bounds, and whether or not the change took a monitored readout out of bounds. Moreover, different regions of the waveform differentially reflected these effects. The results confirm the sensitivity of scalp-recorded ERPs to the cognitive processes affected by mental workload and suggest the possibility of extracting useful ERP indices of primary task performance in a wide range of man-machine settings.

Munson, Robert C.↗

CCE Case Study: Baltavia Substation Power Outage

In this case study, we will examine a fictional event broadly inspired by the real power outages in Ukraine that took place in December 2015 and December 2016 - both the result of cyber-enabled sabotage. The actual events of 2015 and 2016 were well-documented - the adversaries in these attacks gained access to a few power companies’ corporate networks, pivoted to industrial control system (ICS) networks, and created widespread physical effects in the form of power outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗