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At least 1,189 records · Page 66

HAIMOS Ensemble Forecasts for Intra-day and Day- Ahead GHI, DNI and Ramps

The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid physics-based/data-driven forecast model to improve direct normal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI and GHI) prediction for horizons ranging from 1 to 72 hours. Project objectives also address key gaps in state-of-the-art solar forecasting: accurate probabilistic solar forecasts and the forecasting of large irradiance ramps (ramp onset and magnitude). The proposed model ensembles Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, determinist physics-based algorithms, and new-generation cloud cover products (high-resolution rapid refresh satellite images and Large Eddy Simulations). The result is the Hybrid Adaptive Input Model Objective Selection (HAIMOS) ensemble model. HAIMOS blends state of the art machine learning methodologies with physics-based models for cloud cover and cloud optical depth forecasts. The technical activities followed a two-pronged strategy. First, the preprocessing of data, the selection of inputs to the nonlinear approximators, the type of approximator and objective functions, and post-processing ensembling techniques included in HAIMOS were all optimized adaptively to find the best model for a specific goal (reduce DNI/GHI forecast error, improve the prediction of ramp onset, etc.). Second, a large effort was put in improving cloud identification and the forecast of cloud cover and cloud optical depth. To this end, new-generation cloud parametrization products were developed in this work. These include improved algorithms to assist in cloud identification, cloud classification and cloud parametrization from satellite images – three key factors in the accuracy of 1 to 6-hours irradiance forecasts and prediction of ramp onset. Furthermore, we also included cloud information extracted from high resolution rapid refresh satellite images (GOES-16) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). LES was used to model the atmosphere in detail over locations of interest and produce cloud optical depth forecasts. Once these data streams were validated, they were used as input data to the HAIMOS forecast. The model was developed using data from several climatologically distinct locations with potential for high solar penetration. In the last year of the project, we conducted a validation campaign according to the guidelines stipulated by the Topic Area 1 project as described in the FOA. This effort brings, for the first time, proven machine-learning methodologies for generating state-of-the-art solar forecasts interweaved with detailed physics-based models for cloud detection, and cloud optical depth forecasts. HAIMOS will generate accurate irradiance probabilistic forecast to assist in reducing solar generation prediction error. Globally optimized solar forecast models are more likely to impact solar energy stakeholders. The goal of this project was to increase the state-of-the-art forecast skill from their present values of 10 to 35%. At the end of the project, we achieved between 30% and 50% forecast skill across a wide range of horizons for both GHI and DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Enhancing Coking Tolerance and Stability of SOFC Anodes Using Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) of Oxide Thin Films

The overall objective of this project was to use atomic layer deposition (ALD) to add modifiers to the surfaces of conventional Ni-YSZ cermet, solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) anodes to enhance both their tolerance to hydrocarbon fuels by decreasing their propensity to form coke deposits, and to increase redox stability. Studies of the use of ALD to modify analogous supported metal powder catalysts were also added to the scope of the project in response to our industrial partner, Atrex going out of business. The initial portion of the program focused on designing and building the ALD reactor required for deposition of the oxide modifier films. Studies of the oxide modifier films on the coking tolerance and of redox properties of Ni-cermet anodes were then carried out. These studies demonstrated that while surface oxide modifiers were able to impart some coking resistance this only occurred for a relatively small range of operating conditions (e.g., temperature, steam-to-fuel ratio, etc.) and not at the level that would be required for operating in methane fuel at low steam-to-methane ratios. In light of this observation, we focused on assessing another approach to enhance anode coking resistance which eliminated bulk Ni from the anode. This approach made use of electronically conducting perovskite films to provide electrical conductivity in the anode, while using small amounts of Ni or other metals, such as Pt, deposited using ALD as the anode oxidation catalyst. This approach proved to be quite promising at both imparting coking resistance and redox stability.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Material Developments for 3D/4D Additive Manufacturing (AM) Technologies

Additive Manufacturing (AM), or 3D printing, is a unique technology in which structurally complex objects can be easily manufactured. While AM allows for the creation of intricate 3D objects, these objects are inactive and motionless. With recent incorporation of a “pre-programmed functionality” to the 3D printed objects, a new concept has emerged, 4D printing. Specifically, the 4D printing technology enables a static 3D printed object to change its shape, functionality or property over time upon exposure to a specific stimulus such as heat, stress, light, pH, and moisture, etc. We designed and produced compact 3D/4D printable materials that can be used as (a) structural components of the unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and (b) as hydrogen storage materials that supply hydrogen to a fuel cell to expand the operational reach, namely flight time, and endurance of the UAVs.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Patterning of magneto-optical nanomaterials

Patterning of colloidal particles in precisely organized architectures has attracted intense research interest for decades. This is due to their potential applications in flexible electronics, magnetic and optical devices, sensors, biotechnology, communications, etc. However, creation of mesoscale assemblies at commercial scales have received less attention. The mesoscale systems reside between the micro- and macroscopic scales, with length dimensions from ≈ 100 µm to 5 mm. By leveraging decades of experimental and theoretical research in nanomaterial fields, we were able to precisely create and control the placement of nanoscale materials, allowing us to create mesoscale materials. We developed a versatile and automatic mesoscale patterning technology (via SEM-FIB and 3D printing) that provides precise and consistent control and special arrangement of functional nanomaterials. The versatility of the strategy is demonstrated by patterning nanoparticles with different dimensions, shapes and compositions, tethered with various functionalities and subjected to different external stimuli.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multifunctional Li-ion Conducting Interfacial Materials for Lithium Metal Batteries”

The overall approach will focus on the development and optimization of synthesis methods and precursors for multifunctional Li-ion conducting interfacial materials, protective layer composition, and protective layer fabrication methods. This will be accompanied by property measurement and characterization (conductivity, mechanical properties, etc.) for the protective layer on Li metal, along with cell testing.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Report on Depth-Dependent Q from Frequency-Dependent Lg Q

As a phase that travels through the crustal waveguide, Lg samples the velocity and attenuation structure of the crust. We have developed methods (Pasyanos et al., 2009a; Pasyanos et al., 2009b) to estimate Qp and Qs of the crust and upper mantle from the amplitudes of regional phases, and have applied it to a number of regions around the world, and over a broad frequency band (0.5 - 10 Hz). In prior attenuation modeling, Lg phase amplitudes are able to effectively distinguish the high Q (low attenuation) of old stable cratonic crust from the low Q (high attenuation) of more recently active tectonic regions. For a variety of purposes (e.g. waveform modeling, seismic hazard, etc.), it is useful to have more information on the depth-dependence of the Q structure in the crust. One obvious candidate for doing this is using the frequency-dependence information of Lg Q, in the manner of surface waves. Unfortunately, however, Lg samples the whole of the crust without much differentiation with respect to frequency that is characteristic of fundamental mode surface waves. Lg is generally thought to be the sum of supercritically reflected S-waves trapped in the crustal waveguide (e.g. Xie and Lay, 1994). The phase can also be modeled as a superposition of surface waves. At lower frequencies, it is primarily composed of fundamental and low-order surface waves, while at higher frequencies, it is comprised purely of many high-order surface waves. The low-order surface waves that comprise Lg in low frequency bands (< 1 Hz) are preferentially sensitive to shallow earth structure, such as sedimentary basins and upper crust, while high-order surface waves have a more homogenized sensitivity to the whole crust. Furthermore, at the lower frequencies, we might expect to see some differentiation in the sensitivity between early Lg (herein referred to as Lg1) and late Lg (referred to as Lg2) where the latter is comprised of lower-order surface waves and, hence, shallower structure. Therefore, we might expect to see the signature of shallow features, primarily the lower Q of sediments as compared to crystalline crust, at lower frequencies and in later arriving Lg amplitudes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Proceedings of RIKEN BNL Research Center Workshop: Small-x Physics in the EIC Era [Slides]

Understanding the high energy limit of hadronic and nuclear collisions is at the forefront of nuclear and particle physics. When boosted to ultrahigh energies, all hadrons and nuclei eventually transform into a universal form of matter called the Color Glass Condensate (CGC). The CGC is characterized by the high density (saturation) of small-x gluons which leads to distinct experimental signatures. Tantalizing hints of the CGC have been observed at HERA, RHIC and the LHC, but the prospects for the discovery of the CGC are more promising at future experiments such as the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) at BNL Indeed, according to the National Science Academy report published in 2019, one of the three major goals of the EIC is to address the nature of the gluon saturation. (The other two are the mass and spin structure of the nucleons.) With this in mind, the small-x community is gearing up to meet the challenges of the EIC era. Over the past several years, there has been impressive progress in the next-to-leading order (NLO) calculations in the CGC framework of various observables such as single hadron production in proton-nucleus collisions, inclusive and exclusive dijet and trijet production in Deep Inelastic Scattering (DIS), jet-plus-photon production in DIS, etc. We expect that NLO calculations will be the standard tool to confront future experimental data at the EIC. Another emerging trend of the community is the interplay between small-x physics and spin physics. The RHIC result for the gluon helicity ΔG has underscored the necessity to understand the longitudinal spin structure of the proton at small-x. There have been theoretical indications that a significant fraction of spin and orbital angular momentum is stored in the small-x region. As for the transversely polarized proton, a surprising new connection between the gluon Sivers function at small-x and the QCD Odderon has been pointed out and its implications at the EIC has been discussed. In view of these developments, we think it is timely to organize a dedicated workshop on small-x physics to summarize the present status of the field and to discuss future directions. A major focus of this workshop will be to identify outstanding problems that could significantly benefit from collaborative efforts amongst scientists working on formal, phenomenological, and computational aspects of small-x physics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

High Flux Microchannel Receiver Development (Final Report)

The opportunity addressed in this project was using microscale heat exchanger technology for improving solar thermal central receiver efficiency. This will result in smaller, less expensive components and reduce the levelized cost of electricity from concentrated solar thermal power. This micro-pin solar receiver (MSR) directly heats high pressure (25 MPa) supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) from 550°C to 720°C with an incident flux of at least 120 W/cm 2 at a receiver efficiency of >90% (assuming availability of 95% absorptivity coating), and receiver cost target of less than $\$$150/kWt. Realization of the MSR required an understanding of thermal hydraulic performance of sCO 2 in micro-pin passages, mechanical behavior of high nickel alloys at high temperatures including joints, advanced fabrication methods of high nickel alloys (etching, machining, brazing, welding, diffusion bonding), and the cost implications of these when the concept is scaled to production volumes. The technology can be used with gases (sCO 2 , helium, etc.) or with liquids such as molten salt or liquid metal. Given the high pressure associated with sCO 2 , its use demonstrates a “worst case” scenario, and the successful development of the MSR for this application will result in the development of a technology also applicable to a range of other heat transfer fluids that will enable next generation CSP plants, including support of the Gen3CSP program.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Meteorological Services Annual Data Report for 2021

This document presents the meteorological data collected at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) by Meteorological Services (Met Services) for the calendar year 2021. The purpose is to publicize the data sets available to emergency personnel, researchers and facility operations. Met services has been collecting data at BNL since 1949. Data from 1994 to the present is available in digital format. Data is presented in monthly plots of one-minute data. This allows the reader the ability to peruse the data for trends or anomalies that may be of interest to them. Full data sets are available to BNL personnel and to a limited degree outside researchers. The full data sets allow plotting the data on expanded time scales to obtain greater details (e.g., daily solar variability, inversions, etc.).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regulatory Implications of Embedded Grid Energy Storage

Electricity is unique among commodities in that its supply chain was developed without a storage component. Every other resource commodity has the ability to store excess quantities built into its supply chain – in the form of granaries, warehouses, reservoirs, etc. This embedded storage creates a buffer for mismatches between supply and demand, stabilizing prices and protecting customers. Recent technological advances in cost-competitive energy storage technologies that are scalable and flexible have made the concept of embedded electrical storage feasible, but several regulatory questions remain. This paper summarizes energy regulatory structures in the U.S. and the implications that they would have for embedded storage on the electric grid. Regulatory challenges for embedded storage include the lack of underlying standards, inclusion in planning processes, ownership models, compensation, and metrics. Two possible pathways forward are explored: an incremental one including regulatory guidance regarding the evaluation of embedded storage in existing planning processes, and a complex one involving the revision of existing reliability standards or the development of a new standard specific to embedded storage.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Using Deep Mutational Data and Machine Learning to Guide Outbreak and Pandemic Response

A significant fraction of pathogens known to infect humans originate in non-human (zoonotic) hosts (Taylor, Latham, and Woolhouse 2001), and new and emerging pathogens continue to spill over into the human population more frequently at an alarming rate (e.g., SARS, MERS, Cholera, etc.). The recent outbreaks of Ebola virus in West Africa and the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic demonstrate the need for rapid and reliable assessments of viral phenotype information to help inform scientists and policy makers how best to control the spread of disease. Further understanding of the virus pathogenic evolutionary space and potential trajectory could guide appropriate control measures to limit the spread of a new virus throughout the local and global human population.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Radiographic Imaging and Tomography

Radiographic imaging and tomography (RadIT) come in many flavors such as X-ray imaging and tomography (IT), proton IT, neutron IT, muon IT, neutrino IT, etc. We identify five RadIT themes: Physics, Sources, Detectors, Methods, and Data Science, which are integral parts of image interpretation and three-dimensional (3D) tomographic reconstruction. Traditionally, RadIT have been driven by medicine, non-destructive testing, material sciences, and security applications. The latest thrusts of growth come from automation, machine vision, additive manufacturing and virtual reality (‘metaverse’). The five RadIT themes parallel their counterparts in optical IT. Synergies among different forms of RadIT and with optical IT motivate further advances towards multi-modal IT and quantum IT.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A Comprehensive Framework for Valuation of Ecosystem Services in the Context of Hydropower

While models to value ecosystem services exist, they suffer from a lack of “portability” in the sense that a single modelling framework developed for one site cannot be imported and applied to another. Additionally, benefit estimations are often fragmented, incomplete, incomparable, and in heterogenous metrics, thus preventing aggregation to arrive at one comprehensive value. In the context of hydropower, the methods, as well as the metrics used to value the associated ecosystem services, vary between stakeholders (e.g., competing water users, agencies, etc.), detracting from the ability to assess the total value of a hydropower project, water management schemes, or comparing value between competing water users. Further, current methods to value water neglect non-market ecosystem services’ values by failing to account for externalities, resulting in misallocation of costs (e.g., obligatory stakeholder payments for water use) and misinterpretation of hydropower benefits. The benefit-cost ratios in hydropower development are often incomplete because non-market benefits are excluded (e.g., benefits, such as fish habitat resiliency and agricultural water reliability, derived from hydropower development). An approach to enable consistent, standardized hydropower benefit-cost analyses does not currently exist. This paper conceptualizes a methodology to standardize ecosystem services valuation in the context of hydropower projects through the integration of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s existing Final Ecosystem Goods and Services Classification System framework and economic valuation techniques, and demonstrates the applicability of this methodology through a limited proof-of-concept application (the New Waddell Plant, a pumped hydroelectric energy storage facility in Phoenix, AZ). The beauty of our proposed framework lies in its ability to be imported and applied to any other pumped storage facility after accounting for site-specific features.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Versatile Heat Transfer Module

Development of micro-reactors that can be easily transported to remote areas for civilian or military applications is an immediate focus of U.S. nuclear industry and therefore is being pursued by multiple reactor vendors (e.g. HolosGen LLC, Westinghouse, Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation, URENCO, etc.) and actively supported by DOE-NE, DOE-ARPA-E and by the Department Of Defense (DoD). Very-high-temperature gas-cooled (VHTR) and heat pipe cooled reactor technologies are regarded as promising concepts for microreactors applications since they enable compact power conversion systems and display beneficial inherent safety features. Development of microreactors with enhanced performance must be supported by innovations in nuclear technologies. Several technologies being developed by the microreactor industry are being revisited with material technologies developed at the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). Innovative high-temperature compatible solutions are developed to enable advanced thermal-spectrum microreactor designs featuring improved neutronics performance at high-temperature operating conditions to enable high thermal efficiency and economic competitiveness. This report focuses on the Versatile Heat Transfer Module (VHTM) technology that is developed at ANL for heat-transfer in thermal-spectrum microreactors. This technology is built on a liquid alkali metal heat pipe concept while leveraging advanced nuclear material technologies for high-temperature applications at reduced neutronic penalty with potential improvement in inherent safety behavior. The VHTM can be applied to design high-temperature thermal-spectrum microreactor systems with reduced size, weight, uranium enrichment, or increased lifetime. The INFINIT technology deriving from the VHTM enables design of a highly compact long-life microreactor concept for fission surface power (FSP). Demonstration of multiphysics modeling capability was also completed to showcase the added inherent safety benefits obtained with this concept. The VHTM technology remain at an early development stage with low Technology Readiness Level and Manufacturing Readiness Level. The current demonstration of these technologies has focused on manufacturing capability, on performance of the hydrogen diffusion barrier under thermal cycling, while radiation tolerance demonstration is planned. The next step of the demonstration plan will be the assembly of miniature VHTM for high-temperature testing, which can be used as a prototype for future pilot scale demonstration. Such research is critical to pursue development of these technologies that have the clear potential to significantly improve the performance of currently investigated micro-reactors systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Physics Guided Simulation of Electrostatic Discharge: Technical Report

Triboelectrically-charged objects may create threshold sparks, electrostatic discharge (ESD) events, to equilibrate charge between themselves and other relatively charged objects. ESD events exhibit many complex physical phenomena. They are a nexus of several fields of physics with disparate characteristic scales: plasma physics, chemical kinetics, hydrodynamics, circuit models, etc. These scales can span many orders of magnitude from the varied collisions thermalizing information within a plasma on the $\mathcal{O}(fs/ps)$ to the physical size of the plasma channel on the $\mathcal{O}(100µm)$, to the speed of a nonlinear hydrodynamic wave propagating at $\mathcal{O}(µm, ns)$. These threshold ESD events may occur in situations of programmatic importance, delivering energy and power profiles to a “victim load” generating deleterious consequences. To predict and mitigate these consequences we must answer questions about the spark’s energy budget: how much energy goes into producing the spark channel; how much gets radiated away; how much energy is advected away into the hydrodynamics; and how much energy is delivered to a victim load. An ESD simulation toolset has been created and evolved in order to answer these questions. An appropriate, physics guided implementation for simulation can be done by gaining insight into its constituent physics and leveraging that intuition to choose a suitable numerical operator. We examine in detail the chemical kinetics, circuit discharge, and hydrodynamics to deter mine dominant regimes, values, timescales, and interactions to uncover the underlying physical dynamics. We also examine and propose model reduction schemes for high-dimensional chemical kinetics. We use past and current work with experimentally validated and theoretically-verified hydrodynamics to calculate applicability limits of the non-ionizing strong shock limit. We quantify the energy budget from a hydrodynamic perspective and demonstrate that a significant fraction of the stored energy is “earmarked” for hydrodynamic advection as an energy terminus. Lastly, we combine the constituent physics of an ESD event (chemical kinetics, circuit model, and hydrodynamics) into a cohesive, actionable toolset and obtain promising results from an isothermal test case. We then propose a viable, modular evolution of the ESD toolset based upon the performed examination of the physics uncovering dominant physical scales and the stiffness of the compositional differential system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

AI-Enhanced Co-Design for Next-Generation Microelectronics: Innovating Innovation (Workshop Report)

On April 6-8, 2021, Sandia National Laboratories hosted a virtual workshop to explore the potential for developing AI-Enhanced Co-Design for Next-Generation Microelectronics (AICoM). The workshop brought together two themes. The first theme was articulated in the 2018 Department of Energy Office of Science (DOE SC) “Basic Research Needs for Microelectronics” (BRN) report, which called for a “fundamental rethinking” of the traditional design approach to microelectronics, in which subject matter experts (SMEs) in each microelectronics discipline (materials, devices, circuits, algorithms, etc.) work near-independently. Instead, the BRN called for a non-hierarchical, egalitarian vision of co-design, wherein “each scientific discipline informs and engages the others” in “parallel but intimately networked efforts to create radically new capabilities.” The second theme was the recognition of the continuing breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) that are currently enhancing and accelerating the solution of traditional design problems in materials science, circuit design, and electronic design automation (EDA).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Secure & Sustainable Disposition of Security Sensitive Materials

Dual-stage Disintegrator with in-line briquettor Disintegrated paper transitioned from a waste to a commodity Briquettes reused to make an industrial cellulose fiber additive for construction products such as asphalt sealants, roofing cement, driveway coatings, etc. Briquettes are now also being blended with mixed paper and recycled

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗