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At least 1,189 records · Page 66

Development and validation of a mathematical model of heart rate response to fluid perturbation

Physiological closed-loop controlled (PCLC) medical devices monitor and automatically adjust the patient’s condition by using physiological variables as feedback, ideally with minimal human intervention to achieve the target levels set by a clinician. PCLC devices present a challenge when it comes to evaluating their performance, where conducting large clinical trials can be expensive. Virtual physiological patients simulated by validated mathematical models can be utilized to obtain preclinical evidence of safety and assess the performance of the PCLC medical device during normal and worst-case conditions that are unlikely to happen in a limited clinical trial. A physiological variable that plays a major role during fluid resuscitation is heart rate (HR). For in silico assessment of PCLC medical devices regarding fluid perturbation, there is currently no mathematical model of HR validated in terms of its predictive capability performance. This paper develops and validates a mathematical model of HR response using data collected from sheep subjects undergoing hemorrhage and fluid infusion. The model proved to be accurate in estimating the HR response to fluid perturbation, where averaged between 21 calibration datasets, the fitting performance showed a normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 7.41 ± 2.8%. The model was also evaluated in terms of model predictive capability performance via a leave-one-out procedure (21 subjects) and an independent validation dataset (6 subjects). Two different virtual cohort generation tools were used in each validation analysis. The generated envelope of virtual subjects robustly met the defined acceptance criteria, in which 95% of the testing datasets presented simulated HR patterns that were within a deviation of 50% from the observed data. In addition, out of 16000 and 18522 simulated subjects for the leave one-out and independent datasets, the model was able to generate at least one virtual subject that was close to the real subject within an error margin of 9.56 ± 3.15% and 11.1 ± 1.22% NRMSE, respectively. In conclusion, the model can generate valid virtual HR physiological responses to fluid perturbation and be incorporated into future non-clinical simulated testing setups for assessing PCLC devices intended for fluid resuscitation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Arctic Soil Patterns Analogous to Fluid Instabilities: Supporting Data

This dataset characterizes solifluction lobe morphology and spatial patterns using pre-existing LiDAR-derived digital elevation models of 25 sites across Norway with accompanying long term climate data for each site. Data were collected as part of an effort to better understand controls on the formation of solifluction patterns and to test the idea that they are analogous to fluid instabilities. We also provide soil velocity profiles and estimates of effective viscosity from across the world, drawn from literature. They were collected to improve our understanding of the rheology of soliflucting soil. See this article for more information on the theoretical motivation behind this dataset see "Arctic soil patterns analogous to fluid instabilities" (Glade et al., 2021). Data files arranged in a hierarchy and include image files *.tif and *.png, GIS shapefiles and geopackages (*.gpkg), *.csv (with same file as *.xlsx), and *.py (Python scripts readable with a text editor). Files also bundled into *.zip files. Note (2021-10-20): unit corrections made on two files: RR.csv and snowfall.csv. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Control of Weld Residual Stress in a Thin Steel Plate through Low Transformation Temperature Welding Consumables

Low transformation temperature welding (LTTW) consumables are characterized by a low martensite start temperature and a large fraction of martensite forming in the weld. It can efficiently reduce the tensile residual stress because the volume expansion associated with the martensitic transformation compensates for the thermal contraction during cooling. In this work, a LTTW wire, designated as EH200B, was created for the arc welding of advanced high-strength steel thin plates. In comparison to conventional ER70S-3 wires, this LTTW wire generated an opposite distortion pattern. Neutron diffraction measurements along the center thickness of the welded plates showed the maximum residual stress along the longitudinal direction (LD) in the weld region, and the heat-affected zone (HAZ) immediately adjacent to the weld region was reduced from ~330 MPa to below 240 MPa by using the LTTW wire. A finite element (FE) model was developed to predict the residual stress distributions of the plates welded under these two wires. The simulation results showed reasonable agreement with the volume-average neutron diffraction data. Compressive residual stress in the weld region using the LTTW wire was predicted by the FE method. Electron backscattered diffraction and x-ray diffraction measurements confirmed ~90% martensite was present in the LTTW weld. The fatigue life of DP980 steel lap joint panels using EH200B wire nearly doubled that of ER70S-3 wire. This improvement was attributed to the high strength and low LD residual stress in the weld and HAZ immediately adjacent to the weld.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Online thermal profile prediction for large format additive manufacturing: A hybrid CNN-LSTM based approach

Large format additive manufacturing (LFAM) is an advanced 3D printing technique that efficiently fabricates large-scale components through a layer-by-layer extrusion and deposition process. Accurate surface layer temperature monitoring is essential to prevent manufacturing failures and ensure final product quality. Traditional physics-based offline approaches for simulating thermal behavior are often inefficient and complex, posing challenges on real-time, in-situ monitoring. Here, to address this, we propose a data-driven hybrid CNN-LSTM model to predict sequential thermal images of arbitrary length using real-time infrared thermal imaging. In this approach, a Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) is trained offline to capture spatial features, reduce dimensional complexity, and enhance time efficiency, while a stacked Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is applied online to capture temporal information for improved prediction of future thermal behavior in subsequent printing layers. Model performance is evaluated using MSE, SSIM, and PSNR metrics and is benchmarked against stacked LSTM and convolutional LSTM models, demonstrating superior accuracy and applicability. Additionally, to mitigate noise from moving extruders and gantry backgrounds in thermal images, a fine-tuned semantic segmentation model is implemented offline to extract printing geometry, enabling precise temperature tracking along the tool path for further thermal analysis. The frameworks developed in this study significantly advance temperature monitoring, thermal analysis, and in-situ manufacturing control for LFAM, bridging the gap between theoretical modeling and practical application.

Geometry extraction↗

An integrated manifold learning approach for high-dimensional data feature extractions and its applications to online process monitoring of additive manufacturing

As an effective dimension reduction and feature extraction technique, manifold learning has been successfully applied to high-dimensional data analysis. With the rapid development of sensor technology, a large amount of high-dimensional data such as image streams can be easily available. Thus, a promising application of manifold learning is in the field of sensor signal analysis, particular for the applications of online process monitoring and control using high-dimensional data. The objective of this study is to develop a manifold learning-based feature extraction method for process monitoring of Additive Manufacturing (AM) using online sensor data. Due to the non-parametric nature of most existing manifold learning methods, their performance in terms of computational efficiency, as well as noise resistance has yet to be improved. To address this issue, this study proposes an integrated manifold learning approach termed multi-kernel metric learning embedded isometric feature mapping (MKML-ISOMAP) for dimension reduction and feature extraction of online high-dimensional sensor data such as images. Based on the extracted features with the utilization of supervised classification and regression methods, an online process monitoring methodology for AM is implemented to identify the actual process quality status. Finally, in the numerical simulation and real-world case studies, the proposed method demonstrates excellent performance in both prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Identifying Entangled Physics Relationships Through Sparse Matrix Decomposition to Inform Plasma Fusion Design

We report a sustainable burn platform through inertial confinement fusion (ICF) has been an ongoing challenge for over 50 years. Mitigating engineering limitations and improving the current design involves an understanding of the complex coupling of physical processes. While sophisticated simulation codes are used to model ICF implosions, these tools contain necessary numerical approximation but miss physical processes that limit predictive capability. Identification of relationships between controllable design inputs to ICF experiments and measurable outcomes (e.g., neutron yield, neutron velocity, areal density) from performed experiments can help guide the future design of experiments and development of simulation codes, to potentially improve the accuracy of the computational models used to simulate ICF experiments. We use sparse matrix decomposition methods to identify clusters of a few related design variables. Sparse principal component analysis (SPCA) identifies groupings that are related to the physical origin of the variables (laser, hohlraum, and capsule). A variable importance analysis finds that in addition to variables highly correlated with neutron yield, such as picket power and laser energy, variables that represent a dramatic change of the ICF design, such as number of pulse steps, are also very important. The obtained sparse components are then used to train a random forest (RF) regression surrogate for predicting total yield. The RF performance on the training and testing data compares with the performance of the RF trained using all the design variables considered. This work is intended to inform design changes in future ICF experiments by augmenting the expert intuition and simulation results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Predicting Future Disease Burden in a Rapidly Changing Climate

The interplay of a rapidly changing climate and infectious disease occurrence is emerging as a critical topic, requiring investigation of possible direct, as well as indirect, connections between disease processes and climate-related variation and phenomena. First, we introduce and overview three infectious disease exemplars (dengue, influenza, valley fever) representing different transmission classes (insect-vectored, human-to-human, environmentally-transmitted) to illuminate the complex and significant interplay between climate disease processes, as well as to motivate discussion of how Sandia can transform the field, and change our understanding of climate-driven infectious disease spread. We also review state-of-the-art epidemiological and climate modeling approaches, together with data analytics and machine learning methods, potentially relevant to climate and infectious disease studies. We synthesize the modeling and disease exemplars information, suggesting initial avenues for research and development (R&D) in this area, and propose potential sponsors for this work. Whether directly or indirectly, it is certain that a rapidly changing climate will alter global disease burden. The trajectory of climate change is an important control on this burden, from local, to regional and global scales. The efforts proposed herein respond to the National Research Councils call for the creation of a multidisciplinary institute that would address critical aspects of these interlocking, cascading crises.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fast and accurate reduced-order modeling of a MOOSE-based additive manufacturing model with operator learning

One predominant challenge in additive manufacturing (AM) is to achieve specific material properties by manipulating manufacturing process parameters during the runtime. Such manipulation tends to increase the computational load imposed on existing simulation tools employed in AM. The goal of the present work is to construct a fast and accurate reduced-order model (ROM) for an AM model developed within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework, ultimately reducing the time/cost of AM control and optimization processes. Our adoption of the operator learning (OL) approach enabled us to learn a family of differential equations produced by altering process variables in the laser’s Gaussian point heat source. More specifically, we used the Fourier neural operator (FNO) and deep operator network (DeepONet) to develop ROMs for time-dependent responses. Furthermore, we benchmarked the performance of these OL methods against a conventional deep neural network (DNN)-based ROM. Ultimately, we found that OL methods offer comparable performance and, in terms of accuracy and generalizability, even outperform DNN at predicting scalar model responses. The DNN-based ROM afforded the fastest training time. Furthermore, all the ROMs were faster than the original MOOSE model yet still provided accurate predictions. FNO had a smaller mean prediction error than DeepONet, with a larger variance for time-dependent responses. Unlike DNN, both FNO and DeepONet were able to simulate time series data without the need for dimensionality reduction techniques. Finally, the present work can help facilitate the AM optimization process by enabling faster execution of simulation tools while still preserving evaluation accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Identifying Controlling Variables for Mercury Vapors in Alpha-4 at Y-12: Two Year Data Collection Update

Multiple sensor packages were deployed at Alpha-4 by SRNL, in collaboration with United Cleanup Oak Ridge LLC (UCOR), to monitor mercury vapor concentrations and meteorological parameters. These sensors collected data, inside and outside of the legacy-use facility, for approximately two years. Though data gaps still exist, particularly in colder months, several controlling variables were identified that govern mercury vapor concentrations within Alpha-4. Temperature, barometric pressure gradients, humidity, and wind speed have been identified as controlling variables. A strong positive correlation was seen between mercury vapor concentrations and temperature which generally followed diurnal fluctuations. Temperatures below approximately 10 degrees Celsius did not show any spikes above the PEL, indicating more work can be performed at any time during the winter months – more data should be collected to confirm consistency in this finding. Additionally, spikes in mercury vapor concentrations above that of the permissible exposure limit (PEL; 100 µg/m 3 ) occurred primarily in late afternoon or evening/overnight hours (between 3 PM and 6 AM), which suggests D&D operations might be best scheduled during morning or daytime hours prior to the late afternoon. However, a limited number of spikes did occur outside of the identified window, although this may be attributed to disturbances in air flow and mercury vapor release from work activities performed inside of the Alpha-4 building. The analysis conducted allows for a strong predictive capability for estimating mercury vapor concentrations based upon accurate meteorological parameters. Still, additional data collection, particularly in the winter months, could help to strengthen the predictive power and validate the identified data trends. Further, increased temporal resolution could also help to better characterize the incipient stages of the increases and decreases in the mercury vapor concentration. Continued monitoring support by SRNL at Y-12 is underway at Alpha-4 to further close remaining data gaps and support deactivation and decommissioning work. Within a collaborative effort with UCOR, the SRNL team is collecting mercury vapor data to study the efficacy of a novel mercury suppressant, FerroBlack® which was recently deployed at Alpha-4. In addition, modifications to the current monitoring setup to increase measurement resolution is also being investigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning with Gradient-Based Optimization of Nuclear Waste Vitrification with Uncertainties and Constraints

Gekko is an optimization suite in Python that solves optimization problems involving mixed-integer, nonlinear, and differential equations. The purpose of this study is to integrate common Machine Learning (ML) algorithms such as Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), support vector regression (SVR), and artificial neural network (ANN) models into Gekko to solve data based optimization problems. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is used alongside ML for better decision making. These methods include ensemble methods, model-specific methods, conformal predictions, and the delta method. An optimization problem involving nuclear waste vitrification is presented to demonstrate the benefit of ML in this field. ML models are compared against the current partial quadratic mixture (PQM) model in an optimization problem in Gekko. GPR with conformal uncertainty was chosen as the best substitute model as it had a lower mean squared error of 0.0025 compared to 0.018 and more confidently predicted a higher waste loading of 37.5 wt% compared to 34 wt%. The example problem shows that these tools can be used in similar industry settings where easier use and better performance is needed over classical approaches. Future works with these tools include expanding them with other regression models and UQ methods, and exploration into other optimization problems or dynamic control.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

In Situ Insights into Cathode Calcination for Predictive Synthesis: Kinetic Crystallization of LiNiO 2 from Hydroxides

Abstract Calcination is a solid‐state synthesis process widely deployed in battery cathode manufacturing. However, its inherent complexity associated with elusive intermediates hinders the predictive synthesis of high‐performance cathode materials. Here, correlative in situ X‐ray absorption/scattering spectroscopy is used to investigate the calcination of nickel‐based cathodes, focusing specifically on the archetypal LiNiO 2 from Ni(OH) 2 . Combining in situ observation with data‐driven analysis reveals concurrent lithiation and dehydration of Ni(OH) 2 and consequently, the low‐temperature crystallization of layered LiNiO 2 alongside lithiated rocksalts. Following early nucleation, LiNiO 2 undergoes sluggish crystallization and structural ordering while depleting rocksalts; ultimately, it turns into a structurally‐ordered layered phase upon full lithiation but remains small in size. Subsequent high‐temperature sintering induces rapid crystal growth, accompanied by undesired delithiation and structural degradation. These observations are further corroborated by mesoscale modeling, emphasizing that, even though calcination is thermally driven and favors transformation towards thermodynamically equilibrium phases, the actual phase propagation and crystallization can be kinetically tuned via lithiation, providing freedom for structural and morphological control during cathode calcination.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Cardiac Sarcoidosis

Purpose of Review: In this state-of-the-art review, we highlight our current understanding of diagnosis, assessment, and management of cardiac sarcoidosis (CS), focusing on recently published data and expert consensus statement guidelines. Recent Findings: Academic interest in cardiac sarcoidosis research has increased over the past decade along with increased clinical awareness among clinicians. In 2014, the Heart Rhythm Society published the first expert consensus statement on diagnosing and managing arrhythmias associated with CS. Cardiac magnetic resonance has emerged as a valuable tool both for diagnosing CS and predicting risk of life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias based on burden of late gadolinium enhancement. Cardiac fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography now plays a role in diagnosis, risk stratification, and assessing response to immunosuppressive therapy. Summary: Collaborative, multidisciplinary research efforts are needed to further our understanding of this rare, complex disease. Two large multicenter prospective registries—the international Cardiac Sarcoidosis Consortium and the Canadian Cardiac Sarcoidosis Research Group—are enrolling patients to help provide insights into the natural history of the disease and current treatment strategies. Future research should focus on randomized controlled trials comparing different treatment strategies and identifying and testing novel therapeutic agents.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Cybersecurity Resiliency of Marine Renewable Energy Systems-Part 1: Identifying Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities and Determining Risk

Technology innovation, market demand, and the potential impacts of a changing climate are driving the marine renewable energy (MRE) industry to develop market-ready systems to provide low-carbon electricity for emerging, off-grid markets. The advanced operational and information technology devices used in MRE systems create a pathway for a cyber threat actor to gain unauthorized access to data or disrupt operation. To improve the resiliency of MRE systems as a predictable, affordable, and reliable source of energy from oceans and rivers, guidance was developed for an end users' organization that describes a framework for identifying and managing cybersecurity risk. The development of the cybersecurity guidance is based on standards described in the Risk Management Framework and Cybersecurity Framework developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). This paper is the first of a two-part series that describes an approach to determine the cybersecurity risk for MRE systems based on assessing potential cyber threats, identifying vulnerabilities (people, processes, and technology, including physical and operational environment), and evaluating the consequences a cyberattack would have on operation of the MRE system and impact on end users' mission and business objectives. MRE developers and stakeholders can use this approach to assess their current cybersecurity risk posture to incorporate appropriate cybersecurity controls to reduce the consequences and impacts from a cyberattack on MRE systems. This approach can be refined further as MRE systems are deployed and operational configurations are available.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Online and Offline Analytical Techniques to Quantify Chloride Salts

This report serves as the deliverable for Milestone- M3FT-26AN080502017: Summary of Accomplishments for Online and Offline Analytical Qualification of Chloride Fuel Salts. The qualification of chloride fuel salts is a critical challenge for the development and deployment of molten salt reactors (MSRs), requiring precise control and verification of chemical and isotopic composition to ensure predictable neutronics, manageable radiological behavior, and safe plant operation. Currently, there is no universally accepted standard for fuel salt qualification, particularly for chloride-based systems, which underscores the need for robust, science-based analytical methodologies. This report presents a comprehensive evaluation of both online and offline techniques for quantifying chloride fuel salts, including multielectrode array voltammetry, differential thermal analysis (DTA) probes, inert gas fusion (IGF) analyzers, and gamma spectrometry using the Mirion NAIS-2x2 NaI(Tl) detector. The integration of these methods enables real-time monitoring of actinide concentrations, redox state, and thermophysical properties, as well as high-precision measurement of impurities and isotopic composition. The acquisition of advanced instruments such as the Bruker Leonardo G6 for IGF and the Mirion NaI detector enhances analytical capabilities, supporting the establishment of operational envelopes and impurity thresholds. These approaches provide essential data for neutronic impact evaluation, feedstock documentation, and compliance with nuclear safety standards. The methodologies developed and validated in this report lay the groundwork for future standardized protocols, bridging the gap between laboratory research and commercial reactor operation, and advancing the safe and efficient deployment of chloride-fueled MSRs.

Polke, Amber↗

3D hydrogeophysical characterization of managed aquifer recharge basins

Aquifers are increasingly stressed. Managed aquifer recharge provides a potential solution to mitigate this stress and provide sustainable groundwater resources. Subsurface properties are known to have a strong control on the infiltration rates that can be achieved. However, these properties are often highly heterogeneous and difficult to assess with conventional probing techniques. Here, we show the application of 3D geophysical imaging to assess the recharge potential and its variation across several basins used for managed aquifer recharge. We link in-situ measurements of saturated hydraulic conductivity with the electrical resistivity of the subsurface to establish petrophysical relationships and use those relationships to estimate the distribution of hydraulic conductivity throughout the five recharge basins. Our results show a considerable variability in the hydraulic properties, i.e., soil texture and saturated hydraulic conductivity, that have a direct impact on potential infiltration rates. We use the 3D hydraulic property distributions to model groundwater recharge and provide estimates for infiltration rates and volumes, and use this approach to assess the impact of management activities on groundwater recharge performance. Having such data not only enables us to predict infiltration rates, but also provides means for optimizing such water infrastructure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mobility Energy Productivity Evaluation of Prediction-Based Vehicle Powertrain Control Combined with Optimal Traffic Management

Transportation vehicle and network system efficiency can be defined in two ways: 1) reduction of travel times across all the vehicles in the system, and 2) reduction in total energy consumed by all the vehicles in the system. The mechanisms to realize these efficiencies are treated as independent (i.e., vehicle and network domains) and, when combined, they have not been adequately studied to date. This research aims to integrate previously developed and published research on Predictive Optimal Energy Management Strategies (POEMS) and Intelligent Traffic Systems (ITS), to address the need for quantifying improvement in system efficiency resulting from simultaneous vehicle and network optimization. POEMS and ITS are partially independent methods which do not require each other to function but whose individual effectiveness may be affected by the presence of the other. In order to evaluate the system level efficiency improvements, the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric is used. MEP specifically measures the connectedness of a system while accounting for time and energy externalities of modes that provide mobility in a given location. A SUMO model is developed to reflect real traffic patterns in Fort Collins, Colorado and data is collected by a probe SUMO vehicle which is validated against data collected on a real vehicle driving the same routes through the city. Individual vehicle and system level efficiencies are calculated using SUMO outputs for scenarios which integrate POEMS and ITS independently as well as jointly. Results from application of POEMS and ITS show improvement in energy consumption and travel times respectively when compared to the respective baseline scenarios. Our conclusion is that there are promising synergistic benefits to travel time and energy efficiency when POEMS and ITS are combined.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Seeding the explosion of a high-current-density conductor in a controlled manner through the addition of micron-scale surface defects

Inhomogeneities in a current-carrying conductor promote non-uniform heating and expansion through the complex feedback between current density, electrical resistivity, Ohmic heating, temperature, and hydrodynamics. Three-dimensional-magnetohydrodynamic (3D-MHD) simulations suggest that μm-scale resistive inclusions or voids seed local overheating and through hydrodynamic explosion generate continuously growing craters which become several times larger than the initial perturbation. The ejected mass is the genesis of an electrothermally driven plasma filament which develops at lower current than plasmas on uniform surfaces adjacent to the defect. This result suggests that 1D or even 2D treatments are largely inadequate for detailed prediction of plasma formation. To test computational predictions, z-pinch experiments driven to 1 MA studied ultra-high-purity aluminum rods which were then machined to include pairs of quasi-hemispherical voids or “engineered defects (ED)” on the current-carrying surface. ED are the dominant current-density perturbation and reproducibly drive local overheating which can be compared with 3D-MHD simulation. Data from high-resolution-gated imagers of visible surface emissions confirm many simulation predictions, including the surface topography of local overheating, and the propensity for neighboring ED to prematurely source plasmas which then connect to form a plasma filament. Results also provide conditional support of theory which suggests heating similarity; that is, heating is independent of ED size for geometrically scaled ED.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗