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Failure of Non-Circular Composite Cylinders

In this study, a progressive failure analysis is used to investigate leakage in internally pressurized non-circular composite cylinders. This type of approach accounts for the localized loss of stiffness when material failure occurs at some location in a structure by degrading the local material elastic properties by a certain factor. The manner in which this degradation of material properties takes place depends on the failure modes, which are determined by the application of a failure criterion. The finite-element code STAGS, which has the capability to perform progressive failure analysis using different degradation schemes and failure criteria, is utilized to analyze laboratory scale, graphite-epoxy, elliptical cylinders with quasi-isotropic, circumferentially-stiff, and axially-stiff material orthotropies. The results are divided into two parts. The first part shows that leakage, which is assumed to develop if there is material failure in every layer at some axial and circumferential location within the cylinder, does not occur without failure of fibers. Moreover before fibers begin to fail, only matrix tensile failures, or matrix cracking, takes place, and at least one layer in all three cylinders studied remain uncracked, preventing the formation of a leakage path. That determination is corroborated by the use of different degradation schemes and various failure criteria. Among the degradation schemes investigated are the degradation of different engineering properties, the use of various degradation factors, the recursive or non-recursive degradation of the engineering properties, and the degradation of material properties using different computational approaches. The failure criteria used in the analysis include the noninteractive maximum stress criterion and the interactive Hashin and Tsai-Wu criteria. The second part of the results shows that leakage occurs due to a combination of matrix tensile and compressive, fiber tensile and compressive, and inplane shear failure modes in all three cylinders. Leakage develops after a relatively low amount of fiber damage, at about the same pressure for three material orthotropies, and at approximately the same location.

Hyer, M. W.↗

Space Radiation Cancer Risks

Space radiation presents major challenges to astronauts on the International Space Station and for future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Methods used to project risks on Earth need to be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting cancer risks from space radiation, and thus impact safety factors. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts: The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in the radiation cancer projection model. NASA s acceptable level of risk for ISS and their new lunar program have been set at the point-estimate of a 3-percent risk of exposure induced death (REID). Tissue-averaged organ dose-equivalents are combined with age at exposure and gender-dependent risk coefficients to project the cumulative occupational radiation risks incurred by astronauts. The 95% CL criteria in practice is a stronger criterion than ALARA, but not an absolute cut-off as is applied to a point projection of a 3% REID. We describe the most recent astronaut dose limits, and present a historical review of astronaut organ doses estimates from the Mercury through the current ISS program, and future projections for lunar and Mars missions. NASA s 95% CL criteria is linked to a vibrant ground based radiobiology program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and heavy ions. The near-term goal of research is new knowledge leading to the reduction of uncertainties in projection models. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. The current model for projecting space radiation cancer risk relies on the three assumptions of linearity, additivity, and scaling along with the use of population averages. We describe uncertainty estimates for this model, and new experimental data that sheds light on the accuracy of the underlying assumptions. These methods make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including lunar station, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties and application of this approach to assess candidate mitigation approaches are described.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

A Systems Study to Determine the Attractiveness of Solar System Bodies and Sites for Eventual Human Exploration

A pre-phase A idea-generation team at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), has conducted a study to rank all locations in the solar system based on attractiveness for human exploration. The process used to perform the study was composed of the following primary steps: determination of criteria (including value, cost, and risk criteria) upon which to rate sites in the solar system; weighting of the criteria based upon importance to eventual human exploration; selection of sites to consider and assignment of team members to the task of advocating the benefits of particular sites; rating the sites in both the short- and longterm based on team member presentations and team discussions; compilation of a score based on criteria weights and individual ratings. Finally a comparison of the total scores of different sites was completed to determine a ranking of all the bodies and sites in the solar system. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to determine how weightings affect the rankings.

human exploration↗

Allowable Trajectory Variations for Space Shuttle Orbiter Entry-Aeroheating CFD

Reynolds-number criteria are developed for acceptable variations in Space Shuttle Orbiter entry trajectories for use in computational aeroheating analyses. The criteria determine if an existing computational fluid dynamics solution for a particular trajectory can be extrapolated to a different trajectory. The criteria development begins by estimating uncertainties for seventeen types of computational aeroheating data, such as boundary layer thickness, at exact trajectory conditions. For each type of datum, the allowable uncertainty contribution due to trajectory variation is set to be half of the value of the estimated exact-trajectory uncertainty. Then, for the twelve highest-priority datum types, Reynolds-number relations between trajectory variation and output uncertainty are determined. From these relations the criteria are established for the maximum allowable trajectory variations. The most restrictive criterion allows a 25% variation in Reynolds number at constant Mach number between trajectories.

Wood, William A.↗

Allowable Trajectory Variations for Space Shuttle Orbiter Entry-Aeroheating CFD

Reynolds-number criteria are developed for acceptable variations in Space Shuttle Orbiter entry trajectories for use in computational aeroheating analyses. The criteria determine if an existing computational fluid dynamics solution for a particular trajectory can be extrapolated to a different trajectory. The criteria development considers twelve types of computational aeroheating data, such as boundary layer thickness. For each type of datum, the allowable uncertainty contribution due to trajectory variation has been set by the Entry Aeroheating Subsystem team. Then Reynolds-number relations between trajectory variation and output uncertainty are determined. From these relations the criteria are established for the maximum allowable trajectory variations. The most restrictive criterion allows a 25% variation in Reynolds number at constant Mach number between trajectories.

Wood, William A.↗

Methodology and Results of the Near-Earth Object (NEO) Human Space Flight (HSF) Accessible Targets Study (NHATS)

Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) have been identified by the current administration as potential destinations for human explorers during the mid-2020s. While the close proximity of these objects' orbits to Earth's orbit creates a risk of highly damaging or catastrophic impacts, it also makes some of these objects particularly accessible to spacecraft departing Earth, and this presents unique opportunities for solar system science and humanity's first ventures beyond cislunar space. Planning such ambitious missions first requires the selection of potentially accessible targets from the growing population of nearly 7,800 NEAs. To accomplish this, NASA is conducting the Near-Earth Object (NEO) Human Space Flight (HSF) Accessible Targets Study (NHATS). Phase I of the NHATS was executed during September of 2010, and Phase II was completed by early March of 2011. The study is ongoing because previously undetected NEAs are being discovered constantly, which has motivated an effort to automate the analysis algorithms in order to provide continuous monitoring of NEA accessibility. The NHATS analysis process consists of a trajectory filter and a minimum maximum estimated size criterion. The trajectory filter employs the method of embedded trajectory grids to compute all possible ballistic round-trip mission trajectories to every NEA in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Small-Body Database (SBDB) and stores all solutions that satisfy the trajectory filter criteria. An NEA must offer at least one qualifying trajectory solution to pass the trajectory filter. The Phase II NHATS filter criteria were purposely chosen to be highly inclusive, requiring Earth departure date between January 1st, 2015 and December 31st, 2040, total round-trip flight time <= 450 days, stay time at the NEA >= 8 days, Earth departure C(sub 3) energy <= 60 km(exp 2)/s(exp 2), total mission delta-v <= 12 km/s (including an Earth departure maneuver from a 400 km altitude circular parking orbit), and a maximum atmospheric re-entry speed of 12 km/s. After determining which NEAs offer at least one trajectory solution meeting the criteria, the estimated size constraint is then imposed whereby those NEAs may only be considered NHATS- qualifying NEAs if their maximum estimated size is >= 30 m. This corresponds to an absolute magnitude H <= 26.5 with an assumed albedo p = 0:05. The following is a brief high-level summary of the Phase II study results. Of the 7,665 NEAs in the SBDB as of February 3rd, 2011, 765 NEAs passed the trajectory filter and yielded a total of 79,157,604 trajectory solutions. The trajectory solutions for each NEA are post-processed into Pork Chop Contour (PCC) plots which show total mission delta-v as a function of Earth departure date and total mission duration. Although the PCC plots necessarily compress a very multi-dimensional design space into a two-dimensional plot, they permit rapid assessment of the breadth and quality of an NEA's available Earth departure season and clearly indicate the regions of the trajectory design space which warrant further analysis and optimization. The PCC plot for the NEA with the greatest number of NHATS-qualifying trajectory solutions, 2000 SG-344, is shown. Of the 765 NEAs which passed the Phase II trajectory filter, a total of 590 NEAs also satisfied the further constraint of maximum estimated size >= 30 m. The distributions of osculating heliocentric orbital semi-major axis (a), eccentricity (e), and inclination (i), for those 590 NEAs are shown. Note that the semi-latus rectum used is equal to alpha (1-e(exp 2)). To further our understanding of round-trip trajectory accessibility dynamics, it is instructive to examine the distribution of the NHATS-Qualifying NEAs according to orbit classification. NEAs are grouped into four orbit families: Atiras (aphelion < 0.983 AU), Atens (aphelion > 0.983 AU, alpha < 1.0 AU), Apollos (perihelion < 1.017 AU, alpha > 1.0 AU), and Amors (1.017 < perihelion < 1.3 AU). Of the 765 NEAhich satisfied the NHATS trajectory criteria, none are Atiras, 193 are Atens (31% of known Atens), 456 are Apollos (11% of known Apollos), and 116 are Amors (4% of known Amors). While Apollos comprise 60% of the NEAs which pass the NHATS trajectory filter and Atens comprise only 25%, the percentages according to orbit family are perhaps more relevant. Note that only 11% of known Apollos passed the trajectory filter while 31% of known Atens passed. These simple statistics alone strongly suggest that Aten orbits possess features which tend to enhance their round-trip trajectory accessibility as compared to Apollos or Amors. This is significant because Atens' orbits cause them to spend considerable time in Earth's daytime sky, making them difficult to discover and track using ground-based observing assets. In this paper we will detail the NHATS analysis algorithms, present and analyze all NHATS results to date, and discuss aspects of HSF mission architecture design for future NEA missions.

Barbee, Brent↗

Portfolio Analysis Tool

Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT) is a Web-based, client/server computer program that helps managers of multiple projects funded by different customers to make decisions regarding investments in those projects. PAT facilitates analysis on a macroscopic level, without distraction by parochial concerns or tactical details of individual projects, so that managers decisions can reflect the broad strategy of their organization. PAT is accessible via almost any Web-browser software. Experts in specific projects can contribute to a broad database that managers can use in analyzing the costs and benefits of all projects, but do not have access for modifying criteria for analyzing projects: access for modifying criteria is limited to managers according to levels of administrative privilege. PAT affords flexibility for modifying criteria for particular "focus areas" so as to enable standardization of criteria among similar projects, thereby making it possible to improve assessments without need to rewrite computer code or to rehire experts, and thereby further reducing the cost of maintaining and upgrading computer code. Information in the PAT database and results of PAT analyses can be incorporated into a variety of ready-made or customizable tabular or graphical displays.

Barth, Tim↗

Time and Frequency-Domain Cross-Verification of SLS 6DOF Trajectory Simulations

The SLS GNC team and its partners have developed several time- and frequency-based simulations for development and analysis of the proposed SLS launch vehicle. The simulations differ in fidelity and some have unique functionality that allows them to perform specific analyses. Some examples of the purposes of the various models are: trajectory simulation, multi-body separation, Monte Carlo, hardware in the loop, loads, and frequency domain stability analyses. While no two simulations are identical, many of the models are essentially six degree-of-freedom (6DOF) representations of the SLS plant dynamics, hardware implementation, and flight software. Thus at a high level all of those models should be in agreement. Comparison of outputs from several SLS trajectory and stability analysis tools are ongoing as part of the program's current verification effort. The purpose of these comparisons is to highlight modeling and analysis differences, verify simulation data sources, identify inconsistencies and minor errors, and ultimately to verify output data as being a good representation of the vehicle and subsystem dynamics. This paper will show selected verification work in both the time and frequency domain from the current design analysis cycle of the SLS for several of the design and analysis simulations. In the time domain, the tools that will be compared are MAVERIC, CLVTOPS, SAVANT, STARS, ARTEMIS, and POST 2. For the frequency domain analysis, the tools to be compared are FRACTAL, SAVANT, and STARS. The paper will include discussion of these tools including their capabilities, configurations, and the uses to which they are put in the SLS program. Determination of the criteria by which the simulations are compared (matching criteria) requires thoughtful consideration, and there are several pitfalls that may occur that can severely punish a simulation if not considered carefully. The paper will discuss these considerations and will present a framework for responding to these issues when they arise. For example, small event timing differences can lead to large differences in mass properties if the criteria are to measure those properties at the same time, or large differences in altitude if the criteria are to measure those properties when the simulation experiences a staging event. Similarly, a tiny difference in phase can lead to large gain margin differences for frequency-domain comparisons of gain margins.

VanZwieten, Tannen↗

Human Mars Landing Site and Impacts on Mars Surface Operations

This paper describes NASA's initial steps for identifying and evaluating candidate Exploration Zones (EZs) and Regions of Interests (ROIs) for the first human crews that will explore the surface of Mars. NASA's current effort to define the exploration of this planet by human crews, known as the Evolvable Mars Campaign (EMC), provides the context in which these EZs and ROIs are being considered. The EMC spans all aspects of a human Mars mission including launch from Earth, transit to and from Mars, and operations on the surface of Mars. An EZ is a collection of ROIs located within approximately 100 kilometers of a centralized landing site. ROIs are areas relevant for scientific investigation and/or development/maturation of capabilities and resources necessary for a sustainable human presence. The EZ also contains one or more landing sites and a habitation site that will be used by multiple human crews during missions to explore and utilize the ROIs within the EZ. With the EMC as a conceptual basis, the EZ model has been refined to a point where specific site selection criteria for scientific exploration and in situ resource utilization can be defined. In 2015 these criteria were distributed to the planetary sciences community and the in situ resource utilization and civil engineering communities as part of a call for EZ proposals. The resulting "First Landing Site/Exploration Zone Workshop for Human Missions to the Surface of Mars" was held in October 2015 during which 47 proposals for EZs and ROIs were presented and discussed. Proposed locations spanned all longitudes and all allowable latitudes (+/- 50 degrees). Proposed justification for selecting one of these EZs also spanned a significant portion of the scientific and resource criteria provided to the community. Several important findings resulted from this Workshop including: (a) a strong consensus that, at a scale of 100 km (radius), multiple places on Mars exist that have both sufficient scientific interest to sustain multiple crews of exploring astronauts, AND potential resource deposits for ISRU indicating the current EZ definition is viable and should be retained for now, (b) new data types (needed for more definitive analysis of EZs) argued strongly for a new orbiter mission, and possibly one or more surface missions, to obtain these data, (c) a general consensus that this Workshop was an excellent start to identifying a place where future human missions to Mars can productively explore this planet and learn to live and work there for the long term. Building on these findings, HEOMD and SMD are: (a) refining the EZ selection criteria and overall selection process to improve on lessons learned from the first EZ workshop, (b) using these proposed locations to develop "reference EZs" for assessment purposes (primarily engineering assessments), (c) gathering data and conducting analyses to better understanding the different potential sources for water, including the ease of extraction and purification, and (d) assessing trends in additional data that are needed to better characterize EZs proposed at the workshop and how these data needs impact the design and operation of future robotic Mars missions.

Hoffman, Stephen J.↗

Time and Frequency-Domain Cross-Verification of SLS 6DOF Trajectory Simulations

The Space Launch System (SLS) Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) team and its partners have developed several time- and frequency-based simulations for development and analysis of the proposed SLS launch vehicle. The simulations differ in fidelity and some have unique functionality that allows them to perform specific analyses. Some examples of the purposes of the various models are: trajectory simulation, multi-body separation, Monte Carlo, hardware in the loop, loads, and frequency domain stability analyses. While no two simulations are identical, many of the models are essentially six degree-of-freedom (6DOF) representations of the SLS plant dynamics, hardware implementation, and flight software. Thus at a high level all of those models should be in agreement. Comparison of outputs from several SLS trajectory and stability analysis tools are ongoing as part of the program's current verification effort. The purpose of these comparisons is to highlight modeling and analysis differences, verify simulation data sources, identify inconsistencies and minor errors, and ultimately to verify output data as being a good representation of the vehicle and subsystem dynamics. This paper will show selected verification work in both the time and frequency domain from the current design analysis cycle of the SLS for several of the design and analysis simulations. In the time domain, the tools that will be compared are MAVERIC, CLVTOPS, SAVANT, STARS, ARTEMIS, and POST 2. For the frequency domain analysis, the tools to be compared are FRACTAL, SAVANT, and STARS. The paper will include discussion of these tools including their capabilities, configurations, and the uses to which they are put in the SLS program. Determination of the criteria by which the simulations are compared (matching criteria) requires thoughtful consideration, and there are several pitfalls that may occur that can severely punish a simulation if not considered carefully. The paper will discuss these considerations and will present a framework for responding to these issues when they arise. For example, small event timing differences can lead to large differences in mass properties if the criteria are to measure those properties at the same time, or large differences in altitude if the criteria are to measure those properties when the simulation experiences a staging event. Similarly, a tiny difference in phase can lead to large gain margin differences for frequency-domain comparisons of gain margins.

Johnson, Matthew↗

Solid-state Architecture Batteries for Enhanced Rechargeability and Safety (SABERS) for Extended Deep Space Applications

Extended duration deep space missions as well as permanent space habitats face numerous technical challenges, key among them is energy generation and energy storage. There are considerable monetary and technical barriers to the generation of power in space. Therefore, it is important to store and be able to access power in an efficient and safe manner over a large number of cycles. Energy storage and in particular, batteries, are vital to the operation of next-generation extraterrestrial shuttles, rovers, habitats and extravehicular activity (EVA) space suits. The performance metrics for extended duration space missions are at least 2 times greater than those set for terrestrial applications such as electric automobiles. Furthermore, safety is essential for operation of space missions particularly involving astronauts such as shuttles, habitats and EVA space suits. Preliminary systems level analysis has indicated that there are five key properties which must be optimized for successful implementation of battery systems. Those five key criteria are: safety, energy density, power, packaging design and scalability. Current state-of-the-art (SOA) lithium-ion batteries can meet or exceed the requirements for certain space applications in the areas of power and scalability, yet are insufficient in the key performance criteria of energy, safety and packaging design. The SABERS concept proposes a battery that meets all five key performance criteria through development of a solid-state architecture battery utilizing high capacity sulfur-selenium cathode and lithium metal anode. The combination of sulfur and selenium offers a balanced energy-to-power density ratio, which can be tailored to the specific application by altering the stoichiometric ratios of sulfur to selenium. This hybrid cathode will be developed by implementing NASA patented holey graphene technology as a highly conductive, ultra-lightweight electrode scaffold. A solid-state electrolyte will be used as a safe, non-flammable replacement to the highly flammable liquid organic electrolytes currently used in SOA lithium-ion batteries. This solid-state lithium-sulfur/selenium cell will be designed into a serial stacking configuration to enable dense packaging of the battery cells. The serial stacking configuration is termed a bipolar stack, which has the advantages of reducing overall cell weight, simplifying the interfaced connections for the cell, and minimizing the cooling requirements for the cell. Lastly, optimization of battery components will occur through a robust and rigorous combination of various computational modeling techniques covering multiple length scales. The expected result will be a fully solid-state battery with operational temperatures up to 150 °C which provides the required energy density, discharge rates, and inherent safety to meet the strict space mission performance criteria. In particular, the wide operational temperature window is required for the large temperature ranges which are experienced across a broad range of potential space missions. This presentation will show initial results that demonstrate the SABERS team has developed a composite carbon-sulfur cathode which exceeds 1100 Wh/kg at a discharge rate of 0.4C, and 804 Wh/kg at a discharge rate of 1C. Additionally, this presentation will show the SABERS team multiscale computational modeling approach and has produced a novel particle dynamics method called Solid Electrolyte Sphere Approximation Model (SESAM). SESAM is on the 1-10 µm scale and provides electromechanical and grain interactions for predictive design guidelines for the experimental team to follow.

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Vehicles↗

MEDLI2: MISP Inferred Aerothermal Environment and Flow Transition Assessment

The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation 2 (MEDLI2) sensor suite on the Mars2020 mission contained multiple sensors on the aeroshell to measure the aerothermal environment during entry into the Martian atmosphere. These sensors performed superbly and successfully returned forebody and aftbody heating measurements. Analysis of MEDLI2 data indicated flow transitioning from a laminar to turbulent state on the heatshield. No evidence of flow transition was observed on the backshell. Two methods were used to estimate flow transition times on the heatshield: (1) temperature gradient of near-surface thermocouple data and (2) heat flux gradient from an inverse reconstruction approach using thermocouple data and material response modeling. Both methods produced similar transition times with an estimated accuracy of ±1 s. To assess various transition criteria, transition parameters were evaluated at each sensor location using flow field solutions from computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. The idea was to use conservative values inferred from MEDLI2 data as transition criteria for other Mars missions. To test this hypothesis, MEDLI data from the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission was used to compare predicted vs. actual flow transition times. The comparisons suggest smooth wall transition criteria are not well-suited in modeling the rapid progression of a turbulent transition front. Transition criteria containing a roughness element parameter agreed better with the flight data. In summary, critical transition values derived from MEDLI2 data may be used as a starting point in constructing a flow transition model for future Mars missions.

Chun Y Tang↗

Design and Analysis of Corridors for UAM Operations

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is predicted to provide alternate modes of transportation for cargo and passengers in the urban areas. Integration of UAM operations into the National Airspace System is a challenge especially around large airport. The Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) UAM Concept of Operations (ConOps) suggests new airspace structures for UAM operations such as corridors where FAA air traffic control (ATC) will not be expected to provide services. This paper presents a design for corridors in the Dallas Fort Worth (DFW) area that attempts to minimize air traffic controller interactions with UAM pilots and operators. The corridor and vertiports are then analyzed with respect to Class B separation criteria and wake advisory criteria. The results show that for the corridors designed for the DFW area and presented in this research, in some cases Class B separation criteria are not available between UAM corridors and legacy traffic due to the geometry of the airport. It shows that wake advisory criteria were not met for some segments in North Flow traffic but were generally met in South Flow. This means that some corridor segments at DFW airport will not be available for a given airport flow and may need new placements, which need further investigation.

Urban Air Mobility↗

Lumping and splitting: Toward a classification of mineral natural kinds

How does one best subdivide nature into kinds? All classification systems require rules for lumping similar objects into the same category, while splitting differing objects into separate categories. Mineralogical classification systems are no exception. Our work in placing mineral species within their evolutionary contexts necessitates this lumping and splitting because we classify “mineral natural kinds” based on unique combinations of formational environments and continuous temperature-pressure-composition phase space. Consequently, we lump two minerals into a single natural kind only if they: (1) are part of a continuous solid solution; (2) are isostructural or members of a homologous series; and (3) form by the same process. A systematic survey based on these criteria suggests that 2310 (~41%) of 5659 IMA-approved mineral species can be lumped with one or more other mineral species, corresponding to 667 “root mineral kinds,” of which 353 lump pairs of mineral species, while 129 lump three species. Eight mineral groups, including cancrinite, eudialyte, hornblende, jahnsite, labuntsovite, satorite, tetradymite, and tourmaline, are represented by 20 or more lumped IMA-approved mineral species. A list of 5659 IMA-approved mineral species corresponds to 4016 root mineral kinds according to these lumping criteria. The evolutionary system of mineral classification assigns an IMA-approved mineral species to two or more mineral natural kinds under either of two splitting criteria: (1) if it forms in two or more distinct paragenetic environments, or (2) if cluster analysis of the attributes of numerous specimens reveals more than one discrete combination of chemical and physical attributes. A total of 2310 IMA-approved species are known to form by two or more paragenetic processes and thus correspond to multiple mineral natural kinds; however, adequate data resources are not yet in hand to perform cluster analysis on more than a handful of mineral species. We find that 1623 IMA-approved species (~29%) correspond exactly to mineral natural kinds; i.e., they are known from only one paragenetic environment and are not lumped with another species in our evolutionary classification. Greater complexity is associated with 587 IMA-approved species that are both lumped with one or more other species and occur in two or more paragenetic environments. In these instances, identification of mineral natural kinds may involve both lumping and splitting of the corresponding IMA-approved species on the basis of multiple criteria. Based on the numbers of root mineral kinds, their known varied modes of formation, and predictions of minerals that occur on Earth but are as yet undiscovered and described, we estimate that Earth holds more than 10000 mineral natural kinds.

Philosophy of mineralogy↗

Key Constructs for Reasonable Confidence in System Validation Programs

This paper presents four key constructs developed in preparing IEEE Std P2411TM, Human Factors Engineering Guide for the Validation of System Designs and Integrated Systems Operations at Nuclear Facilities for submission. These constructs reflect judgments that responsible parties make in order to bring validation to closure. Such judgments weigh competing concerns and cost-benefits for stakeholders. Improved processes and methods may support such judgments but cannot alone eliminate uncertainty. Stating and clarifying these constructs aims to reduce uncertainty in the validation process, to better prepare the implementers and reviewers of future validation programs, both in the nuclear industry and beyond. Reasonable Confidence – A proof standard, as used to reach conclusions in a legal case. Legal proof standards are bounded between “preponderance of evidence” and “beyond reasonable doubt”. Reasonable confidence is comparable to an intermediate legal proof standard of “clear and convincing evidence.” Representative Test Set – A collection of scenarios of sufficient variety to represent the anticipated range of operational conditions, events, evolutions, and activities for validating the system(s) under test. Dispositive vs. Diagnostic Criteria – Relevant performance criteria are placed in one of two categories. Dispositive criteria are assessed, without exception, to determine whether a validation test passes or fails overall. Diagnostic criteria are assessed, subject to justified exception, to evaluate the quality or degree of some particular aspect of performance. Repeatability – Consistency in achieving passing results is to be demonstrated for each scenario in the representative test set; thus, the minimum number of formal repetitions for each scenario is two.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Adaptive time scaling for accelerating explicit finite element analysis

A method for accelerating an explicit finite element analysis (FEA) simulation of a modeled system or process includes performing an initial iteration of the FEA simulation according to a baseline time interval via an FEA computing network, and calculating a criteria ratio of a predetermined set of scaling criteria for the modeled system or process. The method includes determining a time-scaling factor using the criteria ratio via the FEA computing network as a function of the criteria ratio, and then applying the time-scaling factor to the baseline time interval to generate a scaled time interval. The scaled time interval accelerates simulation time of the FEA simulation. The method includes performing a subsequent iteration of the explicit FEA simulation at the scaled time interval using the FEA computing network. The process continues for subsequent iterations, with the time-scaling factor adapting with each iteration.

Chen, Jian↗

Molten Salt Reactor Safety Assessment - Three Approaches to A Common Objective

Safety adequacy assessment is central to nuclear power plant (NPP) licensing. Either NPP accident mitigation or prevention can result in adequate safety. Accident prevention, along with the the prevention of accident escalation, can be evaluated using either deterministic or probabilistic methods. Acceptable means to develop principal design criteria (PDCs) via probabilistic methods are provided in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.233 while advanced reactor design criteria are provided in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.232 (RG 1.232). Accident mitigation-based regulatory guidance for non-power reactors is provided in NUREG 1537. While RG 1.232 included class specific guidance for both sodium-cooled fast reactors and modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, it did not provide molten salt reactor (MSR) class specific guidance. Class specific design criteria more closely align with reactors in their class so will require less effort to employ to develop design specific PDCs. The American Nuclear Society has recently released a liquid-fueled MSR design safety standard (ANSI/ANS-20.2-2023) that provides class specific design criteria.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Accidental symmetries, Hilbert series, and friends

Accidental symmetries in effective field theories can be established by computing and comparing Hilbert series. This invites us to study them with the tools of invariant theory. Applying this technology, we spotlight three classes of accidental symmetries that hold to all orders for non-derivative interactions. They are broken by derivative interactions and become ordinary finite-order accidental symmetries. To systematically understand the origin and the patterns of accidental symmetries, we introduce a novel mathematical construct — a (non-transitive) binary relation between subgroups that we call friendship. Equipped with this, we derive new criteria for all-order accidental symmetries in terms of friends, and criteria for finite-order accidental symmetries in terms of friends ma non troppo. They allow us to verify and identify accidental symmetries more efficiently without computing the Hilbert series. We demonstrate the success of our new criteria by applying them to a variety of sample accidental symmetries, including the custodial symmetry in the Higgs sector of the Standard Model effective field theory.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗