SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “continuous improvement”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,189 records · Page 66

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

ExaSGD: 2022 Kernel Thrust Activities

The Kernel Thrust milestone ADSE22-407 covers the development of device-capable optimization algorithms and solvers technologies required by the ExaSGD project’s software stack in order to solve security-constrained alternating current optimal power flow (SC-ACOPF) problems on emerging exascale architectures. To this extent, in FY22 the main objective of the Kernel Thrust was (i) provide sparse optimization solver that runs efficiently on hardware accelerator devices (i.e., NVIDIA and AMD GPUs) to perform intra-node computations, (ii) strengthen the reliability and increase the performance of the mixed-dense sparse (MDS) solver of HiOp for deployment on the FY22 target architectures, Summit and Crusher, and (iii) increase performance by improving the mathematical algorithm and refining the parallel MPI-based implementation of the coarse-grain parallel solver HiOp-PriDec for capabilities deployment on the FY22 target architectures, Summit and Crusher. This document presents the developments and contributions done by the Kernels Thrust Team in FY22 toward completion of the above-mentioned objectives. These contributions progressed along four main development (sub)thrusts: (1) Design and implementation of a sparse optimization solver for use on hardware accelerators; (2) Improvement of the mathematical algorithm and of the parallel implementation of HiOp-PriDec to ensure readiness and efficient coarse-grain parallelism for FY23 target exascale machine; and (3) Support Software and Application Development Thrusts of the exaSGD project in their deployment of the project’s software stack on AMD- and NVIDIA-based architectures. The development of the sparse optimization solver (thrust 1 above) was new in FY22 and resulted in a new sparse solver in HiOp (available as of version 0.6). The second development thrust was a continuation of the efforts from FY21 and improved the mathematical algorithm and the communication strategy of the HiOp-PriDec solver. The last developement thrust is a large collaborative effort. Namely, the project’s teams from multiple labs (LLNL, PNNL, ORNL, and NREL) performed large-scale demonstration of the ExaSGD software stack, namely the optimization solvers of HiOp interfaced with the modeling front-end ExaGO and the stochastic sampler PowerScenarios. These demonstration efforts solved large-scale instances of the SC-ACOPF challenge problem of medium network sizes (10, 000-bus system) and large number of contingencies on Summit (NVIDIA accelerators) and Crusher (AMD accelerators) systems at ORNL.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2013

An Overview of Modifications Applied to a Turbulence Response Analysis Method for Flexible Aircraft Configurations

A software program and associated methodology to study gust loading on aircraft exists for a classification of geometrically simplified flexible configurations. This program consists of a simple aircraft response model with two rigid and three flexible symmetric degrees of freedom and allows for the calculation of various airplane responses due to a discrete one-minus-cosine gust as well as continuous turbulence. Simplifications, assumptions, and opportunities for potential improvements pertaining to the existing software program are first identified, then a revised version of the original software tool is developed with improved methodology to include more complex geometries, additional excitation cases, and output data so as to provide a more useful and accurate tool for gust load analysis. Revisions are made in the categories of aircraft geometry, computation of aerodynamic forces and moments, and implementation of horizontal tail mode shapes. In order to improve the original software program to enhance usefulness, a wing control surface and horizontal tail control surface is added, an extended application of the discrete one-minus-cosine gust input is employed, a supplemental continuous turbulence spectrum is implemented, and a capability to animate the total vehicle deformation response to gust inputs in included. These revisions and enhancements are implemented and an analysis of the results is used to validate the modifications.

Funk, Christie J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Summary of Revisions Applied to a Turbulence Response Analysis Method for Flexible Aircraft Configurations

A software program and associated methodology to study gust loading on aircraft exists for a classification of geometrically simplified flexible configurations. This program consists of a simple aircraft response model with two rigid and three flexible symmetric degrees-of - freedom and allows for the calculation of various airplane responses due to a discrete one-minus- cosine gust as well as continuous turbulence. Simplifications, assumptions, and opportunities for potential improvements pertaining to the existing software program are first identified, then a revised version of the original software tool is developed with improved methodology to include more complex geometries, additional excitation cases, and additional output data so as to provide a more useful and precise tool for gust load analysis. In order to improve the original software program to enhance usefulness, a wing control surface and horizontal tail control surface is added, an extended application of the discrete one-minus-cosine gust input is employed, a supplemental continuous turbulence spectrum is implemented, and a capability to animate the total vehicle deformation response to gust inputs is included. These revisions and enhancements are implemented and an analysis of the results is used to validate the modifications.

Funk, Christie J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

UHT-CAMANCHE: Ultra-High Temperature Ceramic Additively Manufactured Compact Heat Exchangers

The conceptual basis for this project is the convergence of advanced ultra-high temperature ceramic materials and additive manufacturing technologies to produce compact ceramic heat exchangers with complex internal flow path geometries. Task areas were broadly divided into materials and manufacturing development, heat exchanger design, component testing, and techno-economic analysis. Technical challenges included the design and commissioning of new test facilities, improving feature resolution and deposition rate of ceramic additive manufacturing techniques, establishing process-structure-property relationships in additively manufactured ultra-high temperature ceramics, and assessing high temperature materials compatibility in CO 2 environments. The primary candidate material evaluated in this work is a composite comprising zirconium diboride (ZrB2) with 30 vol. % silicon carbide (SiC) which was selected based on its desirable combination of high temperature mechanical properties, high thermal and electrical conductivities, and oxidation resistance. High solids loaded ZrB2-SiC pastes suitable for extrusion-based additive manufacturing were developed for the first time as part of this work. Materials compatibility studies indicate this material oxidizes in CO 2 to form a protective borosilicate scale which transforms to pure silica above 1000°C. Parts made by additive manufacturing displayed enlarged grain sizes produced by pressureless sintering as compared to hot-press sintering. Increases in microstructural coarseness have outsized effect on oxidation performance up to 1400°C due to incomplete oxidation of coarse large diameter SiC particles resulting in lower amounts of silica that apparently inhibit protective scale formation. Additive manufacturing as a forming technique did not appear to significantly affect thermal conductivity, hardness, or elastic modulus, though flexural strength was reduced by half or more as compared to traditionally hot-pressed materials. This effect was attributed to the presence of strength-limiting flaws (ca. 40 microns in size) originating from extrudate inhomogeneities that could potentially be eliminated with further process improvements. Attempts to attain economies of scale for production of multi-kilowatt scale heat exchangers by ceramic additive manufacturing proved difficult. Lack of automation and a modest extrusion rate while retaining fine feature resolution made the overall process labor intensive and limited experimental throughput. A number of full-scale components were taken through post-process heat treatments including drying, binder burnout, and sintering; however, none survived without significant flaws or cracks. Therefore, no operational data from a newly installed heat exchanger test loop were able to be obtained during the performance period. Continued research and development is recommended to improve economic feasibility of ceramic additive manufacturing by standardizing the use of advanced sensors, artificial intelligence, and automation tools to reduce associated labor costs and accelerate production rates. The materials and manufacturing techniques demonstrated in this work are likely to find applications in defense and energy applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1986

Simplified curve fits for the thermodynamic properties of equilibrium air

New improved curve fits for the thermodynamic properties of equilibrium air were developed. The curve fits are for p = p(e,rho), a = a(e,rho), T = T(e,rho), s = s(e,rho), T = T(p,rho), h = h(p,rho), rho = rho(p,s), e = e(p,s) and a = a(p,s). These curve fits can be readily incorporated into new or existing Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes if real-gas effects are desired. The curve fits were constructed using Grabau-type transition functions to model the thermodynamic surfaces in a piecewise manner. The accuracies and continuity of these curve fits are substantially improved over those of previous curve fits appearing in NASA CR-2470. These improvements were due to the incorporation of a small number of additional terms in the approximating polynomials and careful choices of the transition functions. The ranges of validity of the new curve fits are temperatures up to 25,000 K and densities from 10 to the minus 7th to 100 amagats (rho/rho sub 0).

Srinivasan, S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improved accuracy and robustness of electron density profiles from JET’s X-mode frequency-modulated continuous-wave reflectometers

JET’s frequency-modulated continuous wave (FMCW) reflectometers have been operating well with the current design since 2005, and density profiles have been automatically calculated intershot since then. However, the calculated profiles had long suffered from several shortcomings: poor agreement with other diagnostics, sometimes inappropriately moving radially by several centimeters, elevated levels of radial jitter, and persistent wriggles (strong unphysical oscillations). Here, in this research, several techniques are applied to the reflectometry data analysis, and the shortcomings are significantly improved. Starting with improving the equilibrium reconstruction that estimates the background magnetic field, adding a ripple correction in the reconstructed magnetic field profile, and adding new inner-wall reflection positions estimated through ray-tracing, these changes not only improve the agreement of reconstructed profiles to other diagnostics but also solve density profile wriggles that were present during band transitions. Other smaller but also persistent wriggles were also suppressed by applying a localized correction to the measured beat frequency where persistent oscillations are present. Finally, the burst analysis method, as introduced by Varela et al., has been implemented to extract the beat frequency from stacked spectrograms. Due to the strong suppression of spurious reflections, the radial jitter that sometimes would span several centimeters has been strongly reduced. The stacking of spectrograms has also been shown to be very useful for stacking recurring events, like small gas puff modulations, and extracting transport coefficients that would otherwise be below the noise level.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Accomplishments of Sandia and Kitware CMake/CTest/CDash Contract for (FY2017-2020)

We describe the accomplishments jointly achieved by Kitware and Sandia over the fiscal years 2016 through 2020 to benefit the Advanced Scientific Computed (ASC) Advanced Technology Development and Mitigation (ATDM) project. As a result of our collaboration, we have improved the Trilinos and ATDM application developer experience by decreasing the time to build, making it easier to identify and resolve build and test defects, and addressing other issues . We have also reduced the turnaround time for continuous integration (CI) results. For example, the combined improvements likely cut the wall clock time to run automated builds of Trilinos posting to CDash by approximately 6x or more in many cases. We primarily achieved these benefits by contributing changes to the Kitware CMake/CTest/CDash suite of open source software development support tools. As a result, ASC developers can now spend more time improving code and less time chasing bugs. And, without this work, one can argue that the stabilization of Trilinos for the ATDM platforms would not have been feasible which would have had a large negative impact on an important internal FY20 L1 milestone.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1992

Improved interpretation of satellite altimeter data using genetic algorithms

Genetic algorithms (GA) are optimization techniques that are based on the mechanics of evolution and natural selection. They take advantage of the power of cumulative selection, in which successive incremental improvements in a solution structure become the basis for continued development. A GA is an iterative procedure that maintains a 'population' of 'organisms' (candidate solutions). Through successive 'generations' (iterations) the population as a whole improves in simulation of Darwin's 'survival of the fittest'. GA's have been shown to be successful where noise significantly reduces the ability of other search techniques to work effectively. Satellite altimetry provides useful information about oceanographic phenomena. It provides rapid global coverage of the oceans and is not as severely hampered by cloud cover as infrared imagery. Despite these and other benefits, several factors lead to significant difficulty in interpretation. The GA approach to the improved interpretation of satellite data involves the representation of the ocean surface model as a string of parameters or coefficients from the model. The GA searches in parallel, a population of such representations (organisms) to obtain the individual that is best suited to 'survive', that is, the fittest as measured with respect to some 'fitness' function. The fittest organism is the one that best represents the ocean surface model with respect to the altimeter data.

Messa, Kenneth↗

NASA NTRS1996

Medical and surgical applications of space biosensor technology

Researchers in space life sciences are rapidly approaching a technology impasse. Many of the critical questions on the impact of spaceflight on living systems simply cannot be answered with the limited available technologies. Research subjects, particularly small animal models like the rat, must be allowed to function relatively untended and unrestrained for long periods to fully reflect the impact of microgravity and spaceflight on their behavior and physiology. These requirements preclude the use of present hard-wired instrumentation techniques and limited data acquisition systems. Implantable sensors and miniaturized biotelemetry are the only means of capturing the fundamental and critical data. This same biosensor and biotelemetry technology has direct application to Earth-based medicine and surgery. Continuous, on-line data acquisition and improved measurement capabilities combined with the ease and flexibility offered by automated, wireless, and portable instruments and data systems, should provide a boon to the health care industry. Playing a key role in this technology revolution is the Sensors 2000! (S2K!) Program at NASA Ames Research Center. S2K!, in collaboration with space life sciences researchers and managers, provides an integrated capability for sensor technology development and applications, including advanced biosensor technology development, spaceflight hardware development, and technology transfer and commercialization. S2K! is presently collaborating on several spaceflight projects with dual-use medical applications. One prime example is a collaboration with the Fetal Treatment Center (FTC) at the University of California at San Francisco. The goal is to develop and apply implantable chemical sensor and biotelemetry technology to continuously monitor fetal patients during extra-uterine surgery, replacement into the womb, through birth and beyond. Once validated for ground use, the method will be transitioned to spaceflight applications to remotely monitor key biochemical parameters in flight animals. Successful application of NASA implantable biosensor and biotelemetry technologies should accelerate the advancement of this and other modern medical procedures while furthering the exploration of life in space.

NASA Discipline General Space Life Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Radiation portal monitor data file format for comprehensive background radiation monitoring

Radiation portal monitors (RPMs) are widely used at border security checkpoints to detect the presence of radioactive materials in people, vehicles, and cargo. Typically, RPM detection systems consist of two pillars equipped with gamma and neutron detectors. To improve detection efficiency, RPMs employ techniques such as a limited energy window, dynamic alarm thresholds, and lead shielding. However, without continuous monitoring of background radiation, signal interpretation can be compromised, because environmental factors and mechanical failures can cause fluctuations. Here, we introduce a daily file format that logs gamma background and neutron background radiation levels continuously over a 24 h period; this format is different from traditional formats that record data only when the RPM is active or occupied. The approach enables RPM operators and analysts to (1) identify and diagnose malfunctioning components, (2) adjust system settings to account for dynamic environmental factors, and (3) use the recorded data to characterize outer space phenomena. Continuous background reporting is essential for identifying issues such as faulty connections, voltage divider failures, and errors in background updates. Continuous background reporting also enables the detection of external influences, including nearby X-ray scanners, temperature fluctuations, rainfall, cosmic radiation, and lunar phase changes. These data files are designed to be easily evaluated and parsed using common tools, and a quick review by an expert is often sufficient for problem diagnosis. We anticipate that continuous background radiation monitoring and these new strategies will significantly improve the accuracy and reliability of RPM systems, reducing the rate of false alarms and enhancing overall system performance.

Background radiation monitoring↗

NASA NTRS2014

Exploratory Study for Continuous-time Parameter Estimation of Ankle Dynamics

Recently, a parallel pathway model to describe ankle dynamics was proposed. This model provides a relationship between ankle angle and net ankle torque as the sum of a linear and nonlinear contribution. A technique to identify parameters of this model in discrete-time has been developed. However, these parameters are a nonlinear combination of the continuous-time physiology, making insight into the underlying physiology impossible. The stable and accurate estimation of continuous-time parameters is critical for accurate disease modeling, clinical diagnosis, robotic control strategies, development of optimal exercise protocols for longterm space exploration, sports medicine, etc. This paper explores the development of a system identification technique to estimate the continuous-time parameters of ankle dynamics. The effectiveness of this approach is assessed via simulation of a continuous-time model of ankle dynamics with typical parameters found in clinical studies. The results show that although this technique improves estimates, it does not provide robust estimates of continuous-time parameters of ankle dynamics. Due to this we conclude that alternative modeling strategies and more advanced estimation techniques be considered for future work.

neuromuscular systems↗

DOE OSTI2024

Heliostats with Adjustable Shape for High Concentration throughout the Day

Our motivation is to develop more efficient heliostats that can provide commercially viable solar thermal power at temperatures > 800°C. Such high temperatures will enable high-temperature industrial processes, as well as electrical generation after sunset with high efficiency. The importance of this research is that such heliostats have the potential to substantially expand the global use of solar energy, by adding solar thermal power as a major component. Thermal solar currently accounts for only 1% of all solar power (with PV being the rest), with heliostat fields providing just 0.25%. Our goals have been 1) to demonstrate a technical improvement for heliostats that can enable fields of them to more efficiently power receivers and reactors, and 2) to show a path to low-cost mass production. Our solution uses new opto-mechanical technology to correct a fundamental deficiency of present heliostats that limits their concentration, namely that they have fixed shape. Most of today’s heliostat research does not address this, but is directed simply toward cost reduction in an effort to make heliostats commercially viable. We are motivated to explore also improving heliostat efficiency, which can be done by continually changing their shape to maximize the concentration of sunlight throughout the day. This is not a new concept, but it has never been implemented in a practical, cost-effective way that approaches the theoretical limit to concentration while also improving mechanical performance; this is our goal. Our major accomplishments have been: 1) We have realized the planned design, construction, and test of a prototype heliostat that achieves the required shape changes in an 8 m2 single-piece glass mirror. The mirror is attached to a steel support frame that is automatically mechanically twisted by the heliostat drives that orient the mirror to direct sunlight to the tower-mounted receiver. Closed-loop tracking is done using a new beamsplitter camera that exploits the target-oriented mount configuration. Field tests of the heliostat show that the light is reflected through the day to always form a disc image of the sun, as needed to obtain the highest concentration. 2) We have developed the design for a field of 431 heliostats to deliver annual average of 1 MW of thermal power at 3,000 sun concentration, matched to a high-temperature ≥ 1000°C chemical reactor. 3) We have also developed, beyond the original stated goals of the project, a new concept for closed-loop tracking and shape-sensing for all the heliostats in the above field, using just 6 cameras around the concentrated reactor focus. Our research adds to the understanding of solar thermal energy by its demonstration of the technical effectiveness of a higher performing heliostat, and by its concept for a new powerful method for real-time tracking and shape sensing in the field, as described above. We have studied the economic feasibility of fields of our twisting heliostats to provide high- temperature heat at a price competitive with that of burning gas, to satisfy the DOE’s studied zero-emissions scenario, where the gas price has to include the cost of carbon capture. The project has the potential to greatly benefit the public if it helps limit global warming by 1) reducing carbon emission from industrial heating, which is currently a major contributor to the 40-billion-ton annual increase in atmospheric CO 2 . 2) Ultimately, the technology could prove to be the least expensive method to power direct air capture of CO 2 on the very large scale needed to remove the 1 trillion-ton excess of CO 2 already in the atmosphere.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2022

Soil Respiration Phenology Improves Modeled Phase of Terrestrial Net Ecosystem Exchange in Northern Hemisphere

In the northern hemisphere, terrestrial ecosystems transition from net sources of CO2 to the atmosphere in winter to net ecosystem carbon sinks during spring. The timing (or phase) of this transition, determined by the balance between ecosystem respiration (RECO) and primary production, is key to estimating the amplitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. We diagnose an apparent phase bias in the RECO and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) seasonal cycles estimated by the Terrestrial Carbon Flux (TCF) model framework and investigate its link to soil respiration mechanisms. Satellite observations of vegetation canopy conditions, surface meteorology, and soil moisture from the NASA SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture product are used to model a daily carbon budget for a global network of eddy covariance flux towers. Proposed modifications to TCF include: the inhibition of foliar respiration in the light (the Kok effect); a seasonally varying litterfall phenology; an O2 diffusion limitation on heterotrophic respiration (RH); and a vertically resolved soil decomposition model. We find that RECO phase bias can result from bias in RECO magnitude and that mechanisms which reduce northern spring RECO, like substrate and O2 diffusion limitations, can mitigate the phase bias. A vertically resolved soil decomposition model mitigates this bias by temporally segmenting and lagging RH. Applying these model enhancements at Continuous Soil Respiration (COSORE) sites verifies their improvement of RECO and NEE skill compared to in situ observations (up to ∆RMSE = −0.76 g C m−2 d −1 35 ). Ultimately, these mechanisms can improve prior estimates of NEE for atmospheric inversion studies.

Soil respiration↗

NASA NTRS1997

Gas Chromatographic Detectors for Exobiology Flight Experiments

Exobiology flight experiments require highly sensitive instrumentation for in situ chemical analysis of the volatile chemical species that occur in the atmospheres and surfaces of various bodies within the solar system. The complex mixtures encountered place a heavy burden on the analytical instrumentation to detect and identify all species present. Future missions to Mars', comets, or planetary moons such as Europa, will perform experiments with complex analyses. In addition, instrumentation for such missions must perform under severely restricted conditions with limited resources. To meet these analytical requirements, improved methods and highly sensitive yet smaller instruments must continually be developed with increasingly greater capabilities. We describe here efforts to achieve this objective, for past and future missions, through the development of new or the improvement of existing sensitive, miniaturized gas chromatographic detectors.

Kojiro, Daniel R.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Biogeochemistry of the Antrim Shale Natural Gas Reservoir

The Antrim Shale, located in the Michigan Basin, United States (U.S.), is a major U.S. shale play having produced over 2.5 Trillion Cubic Feet (Tcf) of unconventional shale natural gas as of 2010. The shallow nature of this formation sets it apart from other, more characterized unconventional shale gas plays. The depth of gas production of the Antrim ranges from approximately 150 to 600 m and it is typically vertically drilled, contrary to deeper, horizontally drilled shales. A thorough understanding of the biogeochemistry and microbiology of this complex system will be advantageous for improving well performance, produced water management, and potential biocidal treatment as microbial community composition can vary substantially even among closely spaced wells. In this study, we analyzed produced water collected from nine different wells in the Antrim Shale by investigating the geochemical and microbial community composition of the produced water to gain greater insight into the overall biogeochemistry of this unique shale system. The majority of the wells from this study had high total dissolved solids (TDS) primarily composed of chloride and sodium, averaging 86,804 mg/L with a maximum 116,223 mg/L; however, three of the wells sampled along the northern margin of the basin exhibited significantly lower TDS ranging from 4932 to 6496 mg/L. Overall, our microbial community analysis revealed relatively low abundance within our samples and high variability of the microbial community among the sampled wells. The majority of bacterial sequences were identified within Proteobacteria, Firmicutes, and Actinobacteria phyla and metagenomic sequencing revealed the low presence of Methanobacteriaceae within each sample. We also investigated potential microbial community drivers and found that TDS, sodium, chloride, iodide, bromide, ammonium, potassium, and strontium were significantly correlated with the observed microbial community. The varying geochemical conditions between wells demonstrate different subsurface environmental niches, potentially driving the heterogeneous microbial communities we observed from well to well. This analysis suggests an important relationship between both well location and geochemistry and the observed microbial community that can persist in the reservoir. Continued studies of the Antrim Shale will improve our understanding of the complex interdependencies of this ecosystem.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Variable Camber Continuous Aerodynamic Control Surfaces and Methods for Active Wing Shaping Control

An aerodynamic control apparatus for an air vehicle improves various aerodynamic performance metrics by employing multiple spanwise flap segments that jointly form a continuous or a piecewise continuous trailing edge to minimize drag induced by lift or vortices. At least one of the multiple spanwise flap segments includes a variable camber flap subsystem having multiple chordwise flap segments that may be independently actuated. Some embodiments also employ a continuous leading edge slat system that includes multiple spanwise slat segments, each of which has one or more chordwise slat segment. A method and an apparatus for implementing active control of a wing shape are also described and include the determination of desired lift distribution to determine the improved aerodynamic deflection of the wings. Flap deflections are determined and control signals are generated to actively control the wing shape to approximate the desired deflection.

Nguyen, Nhan T.↗

NASA NTRS1974

The economic value of remote sensing of earth resources from space: An ERTS overview and the value of continuity of service. Volume 3: Intensive use of living resources, agriculture. Part 3: The integrated impact of improved (ERS) information on US agricultural commodities

The economic value of information produced by an assumed operational version of an earth resources survey satellite of the ERTS class is assessed. The theoretical capability of an ERTS system to provide improved agricultural forecasts is analyzed and this analysis is used as a reasonable input to the econometric methods derived by ECON. An econometric investigation into the markets for agricultural commodities is summarized. An overview of the effort including the objectives, scopes, and architecture of the analysis, and the estimation strategy employed is presented. The results and conclusions focus on the economic importance of improved crop forecasts, U.S. exports, and government policy operations. Several promising avenues of further investigation are suggested.

Seidel, A. D.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Search for Gravitational Waves From Scorpius X-1 in the Second Advanced LIGO Observing Run With an Improved Hidden Markov Model

We present results from a semi coherent search for continuous gravitational waves from the low-mass x-ray binary Scorpius X-1, using a hidden Markov model (HMM) to track spin wandering. This search improves on previous HMM-based searches of LIGO data by using an improved frequency domain matched filter, the J-statistic, and by analyzing data from Advanced LIGO’s second observing run. In the frequency range searched, from 60 to 650 Hz, we find no evidence of gravitational radiation. At 194.6 Hz, the most sensitive search frequency, we report an upper limit on gravitational wave strain (at 95% confidence) ofh95%0¼3.47×10−25when marginalizing over source inclination angle. This is the most sensitive search for Scorpius X-1, to date, that is specifically designed to be robust in the presence of spin wandering.

B P Abbott↗