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At least 1,189 records · Page 66

On the Origin of System III Asymmetries in the Io Torus

The Io plasma torus exhibits several intriguing asymmetries which offer insights to the processes that transport mass and energy through the system. While these asymmetries are increasingly well described observationally, most still lack physical explanations. One important asymmetry is fixed in the coordinate system corotating with Jupiter's magnetic field. Space-based and ground-based observations have shown that torus ions are hotter and more highly ionized around System III 20 deg. Our simulations show that this type of torus asymmetry can be caused by enhanced pickup of fresh ions from Io's neutral clouds near these longitudes. The enhancement is caused primarily by the tilt and offset of the torus relative to the neutral clouds. We will report on the model parameters required to match the observed asymmetries, and offer predictions which will allow a test of this hypothesis.

Schneider, N. M.↗

Spectrally Resolved Flux Derived from Collocated AIRS and CERES Observations and its Application in Model Validation: Clear-Sky Over the Tropic Oceans - Part I

Spectrally resolved outgoing IR flux, the integrand of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), has its unique value in evaluating model simulations. Here we describe an algorithm of deriving such clear-sky outgoing spectral flux through the whole IR region from the collocated Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Clouds & the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) measurements over the tropical oceans. Based on the scene types and corresponding angular distribution models (ADMs) used in the CERES Single Satellite Footprint (SSF) dataset, spectrally-dependent ADMs are developed and used to estimate the spectral flux at each AIRS channel. A multivariate linear prediction scheme is then used to estimate spectral fluxes at frequencies not covered by the AIRS instrument. The whole algorithm is validated using synthetic spectra as well as the CERES OLR measurements. Using the GFDL AM2 model simulation as a case study, the application of the derived clear-sky outgoing spectral flux in model evaluation is illustrated. By comparing the observed and simulated spectral flux in 2004, compensating errors in the simulated OLR from different absorption bands can be revealed, so does the errors from frequencies within a given absorption band. Discrepancies between the simulated and observed spatial distributions and seasonal evolutions of the spectral fluxes at different spectral ranges are further discussed. The methodology described in this study can be applied to other surface types as well as cloudy-sky observations and corresponding model evaluations.

Huang, Xianglei↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-20108-DND

This presentation describes several enhancements planned for the version 4 aerosol subtyping and lidar ratio selection algorithms of the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument. The CALIOP subtyping algorithm determines the most likely aerosol type from CALIOP measurements (attenuated backscatter, estimated particulate depolarization ratios de, layer altitude), and surface type. The aerosol type, so determined, is associated with a lidar ratio (LR) from a discrete set of values. In the version 3 algorithms, there are 6 pairs of 532 and 1064 nm lidar ratios. Some of these lidar ratios will be updated in the version 4 algorithms. In particular, the dust and polluted dust will be adjusted to reflect the latest measurements and model studies of these types. The algorithms are being updated to eliminate the occasional confusion between smoke and clean marine aerosols seen in version 3 by modifications to the elevated layer flag definitions that are used to determine the presence of smoke aerosols over the ocean. In the subtyping algorithms pure dust is determined by high estimated particulate depolarization ratios [de > 0.20]. Mixtures of dust and other aerosol types are determined by intermediate values of the estimated depolarization ratio [0.075< de <0.2]. The version 3 algorithms are limited to mixtures of dust and smoke, the so-called polluted dust aerosol type. To differentiate between mixtures of dust and smoke, and dust and marine aerosols, a new aerosol type will be added in the version 4 data products. In the revised classification algorithms, polluted dust will still defined as dust + smoke/pollution but in the marine boundary layer instances of moderate depolarization will be typed as dusty marine aerosols with a lower lidar ratio [LR = 35 sr] than polluted dust [currently LR = 55 sr]. The dusty marine type introduced in version 4 is modeled as a mixture of dust + marine aerosol. In the v3 algorithms the frequency of dust and polluted dust aerosols at daytime is higher than at nighttime. We present possible reasons for this and present the v4 distributions resulting from both improved background slope corrections of the daytime depolarization ratios and changes to the daytime thresholds for the polluted dust and dusty marine types of version 4. To gauge the impact of the enhancements, we contrast the following between versions 3 and 4: aerosol type, parameter distributions of each type, layer heights of maximum frequency, and distributions of smoke in biomass burning regions. To illustrate specific impacts the presentation shows case studies of version 3 and version 4 vertical feature masks of the aerosol subtypes, where appropriate, for the above enhancements.

A Omar↗

The Effect of Ice Nuclei Efficiency on Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds from Large-Eddy Simulations

The effects of ice nuclei (IN) efficiency on the persistent ice formation in Arctic mixed-phase clouds (AMCs) are investigated using a large-eddy simulation model, coupled to a bin microphysics scheme with a prognostic IN formulation. In the three cases where the IN efficiency is high, ice formation and IN depletion are fast. When the IN concentration is 1 and 10 g -1 , IN are completely depleted and the cloud becomes purely liquid phase before the end of the 24-h simulation. When the IN concentration is 100 g -1 , the IN supply is sufficient but the liquid water is completely consumed so that the cloud dissipates quickly. In the three cases when the IN efficiency is low, ice formation is negligible in the first several hours but becomes significant as the temperature is decreased through longwave cooling. Before the end of the simulation, the cloud is in mixed phase when the IN concentration is 1 and 10 g -1 but dissipates when the IN concentration is 100 g -1 . In the case where two types of IN are considered, ice formation persists throughout the simulation. Analysis shows that as the more efficient IN are continuously removed through ice formation, the less efficient IN gradually nucleate more ice crystals because the longwave cooling decreases the cloud temperature. This mechanism is further illustrated with a simple model. These results indicate that a spectrum of IN efficiency is necessary to maintain the persistent ice formation in AMCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

HAIMOS Ensemble Forecasts for Intra-day and Day- Ahead GHI, DNI and Ramps

The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid physics-based/data-driven forecast model to improve direct normal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI and GHI) prediction for horizons ranging from 1 to 72 hours. Project objectives also address key gaps in state-of-the-art solar forecasting: accurate probabilistic solar forecasts and the forecasting of large irradiance ramps (ramp onset and magnitude). The proposed model ensembles Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, determinist physics-based algorithms, and new-generation cloud cover products (high-resolution rapid refresh satellite images and Large Eddy Simulations). The result is the Hybrid Adaptive Input Model Objective Selection (HAIMOS) ensemble model. HAIMOS blends state of the art machine learning methodologies with physics-based models for cloud cover and cloud optical depth forecasts. The technical activities followed a two-pronged strategy. First, the preprocessing of data, the selection of inputs to the nonlinear approximators, the type of approximator and objective functions, and post-processing ensembling techniques included in HAIMOS were all optimized adaptively to find the best model for a specific goal (reduce DNI/GHI forecast error, improve the prediction of ramp onset, etc.). Second, a large effort was put in improving cloud identification and the forecast of cloud cover and cloud optical depth. To this end, new-generation cloud parametrization products were developed in this work. These include improved algorithms to assist in cloud identification, cloud classification and cloud parametrization from satellite images – three key factors in the accuracy of 1 to 6-hours irradiance forecasts and prediction of ramp onset. Furthermore, we also included cloud information extracted from high resolution rapid refresh satellite images (GOES-16) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). LES was used to model the atmosphere in detail over locations of interest and produce cloud optical depth forecasts. Once these data streams were validated, they were used as input data to the HAIMOS forecast. The model was developed using data from several climatologically distinct locations with potential for high solar penetration. In the last year of the project, we conducted a validation campaign according to the guidelines stipulated by the Topic Area 1 project as described in the FOA. This effort brings, for the first time, proven machine-learning methodologies for generating state-of-the-art solar forecasts interweaved with detailed physics-based models for cloud detection, and cloud optical depth forecasts. HAIMOS will generate accurate irradiance probabilistic forecast to assist in reducing solar generation prediction error. Globally optimized solar forecast models are more likely to impact solar energy stakeholders. The goal of this project was to increase the state-of-the-art forecast skill from their present values of 10 to 35%. At the end of the project, we achieved between 30% and 50% forecast skill across a wide range of horizons for both GHI and DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Einstein survey of the young stars in the Orion Nebula

The Orion Nebula is the best studied site of recent star formation in the Galaxy. The complete Einstein Observatory survey of the Orion Nebula covering a 2 deg x 2 deg region centered on the Trapezium is reported. An X-ray mosaic is presented for the Nebula along with a complete X-ray catalogue for this very young cluster. Approximately 150 distinct sources were found in this 4 sq deg region; spectral types and colors were obtained for about 1/2 of the optical counterparts of these sources. Comparison of the variability of the Orion X-ray sources with those found in the Rho Ophiuchi cloud leads to the conclusion that the Orion sources' variability is also likely to result from continual flaring activities. Eleven new late B stars associated with X-ray emission far exceeding that expected from early type stars were discovered. The X-rays may originate from pre-main sequence companions to these stars; a T-Tauri star of the same age would have the correct L sub x. Comparison of the solar type stars in Orion with those in the Pleiades, the Hyades, and the field suggests that the decay of activity with age is most appropriately described by an exponential, rather than a power law fit.

Zoonematkermani, S.↗

Comparison of lightning location data and polarisation radar observations of clouds

Simultaneous observations of both the precipitation and the lightning associated with thunderstorms show that the lightning is within 3 km of the maximum precipitation echo. The intensity and type of the precipitation is observed with 500 m spatial accuracy using an S-band polarization radar and the position of the lightning is inferred from a low frequency magnetic direction finding location system. Empirical adjustment to the angles using the redundancy of the lightning data reduce this error. Radar echoes above 45dBZ may be caused by soft hail or hailstones, but similarly intense echoes may result from melting snow. The data show that a new polarization radar parameter, the linear depolarization ratio, can distinguish between soft hail and melting snow, and that the intense radar echoes associated with melting snow pose no threat of lightning. A lightning risk only exists when the radar indicates that the clouds contain soft hail or hailstones.

Illingworth, A. J.↗

Peridynamic elastic waves in two-dimensional unbounded domains: Construction of nonlocal Dirichlet-type absorbing boundary conditions

The focus of this paper is on application of peridynamics (PD) to propagation of elastic waves in unbounded domains. We construct absorbing boundary conditions (ABCs) derived from a semi-analytical solution of the PD governing equation at the exterior region. This solution is made up of a finite series of plane waves, as fundamental solutions (modes), which satisfy the PD dispersion relations. The modes are adjusted to transmit the energy from the interior region (near field) to the exterior region (far field). The corresponding unknown coefficients of the series are found in terms of the displacement field at a layer of points adjacent to the absorbing boundary. This is accomplished through a collocation procedure at subregions (clouds) around each absorbing point. The proposed ABCs offer appealing advantages, which facilitate their application to PD. They are of Dirichlet-type, hence their implementation is relatively simple as no derivatives of the field variables are required. They are constructed in the time and space domains and thus application of Fourier and Laplace transforms, cumbersome for nonlocal models, is not required. At the discrete level, the modes satisfy the same numerical dispersion relations of the near field, which makes the far-field solution compatible with that of the near field. We scrutinize the performance of the proposed ABCs through several examples. So our investigation shows that the proposed ABCs perform stably in time with an appropriate level of accuracy even in problems characterized by highly-dispersive propagating waves, including crack propagation in semi-unbounded brittle solids.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Studies of proton-irradiated cometary-type ice mixtures

Cometary ice mixtures are studied in a laboratory experiment designed to simulate the temperature, pressure and radiation environments of the interstellar Oort cloud region, in order to test the hypothesized radiation synthesis mechanism for changing the characteristics of the outer few meters of a comet stored in the Oort cloud for 4.6 billion years. All experiments conducted confirm the synthesis of new molecular species in solid phase mixtures at 20 K. When CH4 is present in the irradiated ice mixture, long chained, voltaile hydrocarbon and CO2 are synthesized together with high molecular weight C compounds present in the room temperature residue. Due to radiation synthesis, about 1 percent of the ice was converted into a nonvolatile residue containing complicated C compounds not present in the blank samples. These results suggest that initial molecular abundances can be altered, and new species created, as a result of radiation synthesis. Irradiated mixtures exhibited thermoluminescence and pressure enhancements during warming, showing the synthesis of reactive species. Outbursts in new comets resulting from similar irradiation-induced exothermic activity would be expected to begin occurring at distances of the order of 100 AU.

Moore, M. H.↗

Galactic interstellar abundance surveys with IUE. I - Neutral hydrogen

A survey is initiated of interstellar densities, abundances, and cloud structure in the Galaxy, using the International Ultraviolet Explorer. From high-resolution (0.1-A) spectra, interstellar column densities are derived toward 244 early-type stars by fitting the damping wings of the Ly-alpha absorption line. Published B-V photometry is used to derive E(B-V) color excesses, stellar distances r, and the mean hydrogen densities, n-bar = N(H I)/r. The data set includes stars out to r = 8.5 kpc and E(B-V) = 0.86, with 68 stars in the galactic halo (absolute b greater than 20 deg). The statistical sample consists of 205 stars of type O3-B2.5 within 5 kpc (53 stars in the halo). The column densities, log N(H I), range from less than 19.44 per square centimeter for alpha Vir to 21.81 for HD 37061. A statistical analysis of the E(B-V) distribution suggests variations in the line-of-sight cloud density and the mean reddening per cloud.

Shull, J. M.↗

The Postshock Chemical Lifetimes of Outflow Tracers and a Possible New Mechanism to Produce Water Ice Mantles

We have used a coupled time-dependent chemical and dynamical model to investigate the lifetime of the chemical legacy in the wake of C-type shocks. We concentrate this study on the chemistry of H2O and O2, two molecules which are predicted to have abundances that are significantly affected in shock-heated gas. Two models are presented: (1) a three-stage model of preshock, shocked, and postshock gas; and (2) a Monte Carlo cloud simulation where we explore the effects of stochastic shock activity on molecular gas over a cloud lifetime. For both models we separately examine the pure gas-phase chemistry as well as the chemistry including the interactions of molecules with grain surfaces. In agreement with previous studies, we find that shock velocities in excess of 10 km/s are required to convert all of the oxygen not locked in CO into H2O before the gas has an opportunity to cool. For pure gas phase models the lifetime of the high water abundances, or "H2O legacy," in the postshock gas is approximately (4-7) x 10(exp 5) yr, independent of the gas density. A density dependence for the lifetime of H2O is found in gas-grain models as the water molecules deplete onto grains at the depletion timescale. Through the Monte Carlo cloud simulation we demonstrate that the time-average abundance of H2O, the weighted average of the amount of time gas spends in preshock, shock, and postshock stages, is a sensitive function of the frequency of shocks. Thus we predict that the abundance of H2O, and to a lesser extent O2, can be used to trace the history of shock activity in molecular gas. We use previous large-scale surveys of molecular outflows to constrain the frequency of 10 km/s shocks in regions with varying star formation properties and discuss the observations required to test these results. We discuss the postshock lifetimes for other possible outflow tracers (e.g., SiO and CH3OH) and show that the differences between the lifetimes for various tracers can produce potentially observable chemical variations between younger and older outflows. For gas-grain models we find that the abundance of water-ice on grain surfaces can be quite large and is comparable to that observed in molecular clouds. This offers a possible alternative method to create water mantles without resorting to grain surface chemistry: gas heating and chemical modification due to a C-type shock and subsequent depletion of the gas-phase species onto grain mantles.

Bergin, Edwin A.↗

On the nature of the X-ray pulsar near Lynds 1457

The rotation of a magnetized white dwarf or neutron star accidentally located within or behind the Lynds 1457 molecular cloud, is considered as a model for the hard X-ray source H0253 + 193. It is calculated that all models of this type have a low a priori probability because the positions are so remarkably coincident and because the objects involved are not sufficiently common. A neutron star accreting in a close binary is rejected because its likelihood is extremely small and because the observed position, luminosity, and spectrum of the object are all quite atypical for X-ray binaries. Two other possibilities are considered: (1) an isolated white dwarf or neutron star drifting accidentally into the cloud and accreting sufficient gas to power the X-ray source and (2) a white dwarf accreting in a close binary.

Patterson, J.↗

Towards a More Realistic Representation of Surface Albedo in NASA CERES Satellite Products: A Comparison with MOSAiC Field Campaign

Observing the Arctic from space is one of the most challenging tasks in climate science. Uncertainty in the NASA Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES)-derived irradiances is larger over sea ice than any other scene type and comes from several sources. The one-year long MOSAiC expedition in the central Arctic provides a rare opportunity to explore uncertainty in CERES-derived radiative fluxes. First, a systematic and statistically robust assessment of surface shortwave and longwave fluxes has been conducted using in-situ measurements from MOSAiC flux stations. The CERES SYN1deg product overestimates the SW_down flux by 11.40 Wm-2 and underestimates the SW_up flux by −15.70 Wm-2 and LW_down fluxes by −13.30 Wm-2 at the surface during summertime. In addition, large differences are found in the LW_up flux (~320 Wm-2) when the surface reaches melting point (~0℃). The large negative bias in upwelling shortwave flux can be attributed to the underestimation of surface albedo (−0.15) in SYN1deg. In addition to direct comparison, a series of perturbation experiments with a radiative transfer model are performed to estimate the contributions to the differences. By correcting both cloud and albedo inputs, the biases in SW_net flux and LW_net flux can be reduced to less than half of the control run biases to +19.90% and −10.53%, respectively. Furthermore, a compensating effect between underestimation of broadband albedo and overestimation of spectral albedo in visible and mid-infrared bands in SYN1deg datasets is found and contributes to the shortwave flux differences. The difference in CERES broadband albedo (~20 Wm 2) contributes to larger uncertainty in SW_up flux than spectral albedo shape (~3 Wm 2). The results of this study inform the future development of CERES products and will ultimately reduce uncertainties in Arctic surface radiation budget derived from satellite measurements.

Yiyi Huang↗

Contrasting Responses of Hailstorms to Anthropogenic Climate Change in Different Synoptic Weather Systems

Hailstones and extreme precipitation generate substantial economic losses across the United States (US) and the globe. Their strong association with short-lived, intense convective storms poses a great challenge in predicting their future changes. Here, we conducted model simulations at 1.2 km grid spacing for severe convective storms with large hail and heavy precipitation that occurred in two typical types of synoptic-scale environments in spring seasons over the central US under both current and future climate conditions. We find that the responses of large hail (diameters >2.5 cm) to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) are markedly different between the hailstorms developed in the two types of synoptic-scale environments, with over 110% increase in large hail occurrences for the frontal systems, whereas less than 30% increase for the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) systems. This is explained by the larger increase in convective intensity and updraft width and a smaller increase in warm cloud depth in the frontal storms compared with the GPLLJ storms. Interestingly, the occurrences and intensity of heavy precipitation (rain rate >20 mm hr-1) in both types of systems are similarly sensitive to ACC (e.g., 40% and 33% increases in the occurrences for the frontal and GPLLJ systems, respectively). These results advance our knowledge of hail projection and have important implications for managing risks for future hail.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Empirical Assessment of the MODIS Land Cover Dynamics and TIMESAT Land Surface Phenology Algorithms

Observations of vegetation phenology at regional-to-global scales provide important information regarding seasonal variation in the fluxes of energy, carbon, and water between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Numerous algorithms have been developed to estimate phenological transition dates using time series of remotely sensed spectral vegetation indices. A key challenge, however, is that different algorithms provide inconsistent results. This study provides a comprehensive comparison of start of season (SOS) and end of season (EOS) phenological transition dates estimated from 500 m MODIS data based on two widely used sources of such data: the TIMESAT program and the MODIS Global Land Cover Dynamics (MLCD) product. Specifically, we evaluate the impact of land cover class, criteria used to identify SOS and EOS, and fitting algorithm (local versus global) on the transition dates estimated from time series of MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI). Satellite-derived transition dates from each source are compared against each other and against SOS and EOS dates estimated from PhenoCams distributed across the Northeastern United States and Canada. Our results show that TIMESAT and MLCD SOS transition dates are generally highly correlated (r = 0.51-0.97), except in Central Canada where correlation coefficients are as low as 0.25. Relative to SOS, EOS comparison shows lower agreement and higher magnitude of deviations. SOS and EOS dates are impacted by noise arising from snow and cloud contamination, and there is low agreement among results from TIMESAT, the MLCD product, and PhenoCams in vegetation types with low seasonal EVI amplitude or with irregular EVI time series. In deciduous forests, SOS dates from the MLCD product and TIMESAT agree closely with SOS dates from PhenoCams, with correlations as high as 0.76. Overall, our results suggest that TIMESAT is well-suited for local-to-regional scale studies because of its ability to tune algorithm parameters, which makes it more flexible than the MLCD product. At large spatial scales, where local tuning is not feasible, the MLCD product provides a readily available data set based on a globally consistent approach that provides SOS and EOS dates that are comparable to results from TIMESAT.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

What bends 3C 465?

This paper studies the interaction of the prototypical wide-angle tailed radio source 3C 465 with the ambient cluster gas. 3C 465 is attached to the dominant D galaxy NGC 7720 in the cluster Abell 2634. New VLA maps of the radio source are presented which reveal an inner jet and a rapid change of structure at the hot spots at the beginning of each tail. New X-ray maps of the cluster gas are also presented. It is shown that the sharp bend of the flowing radio-luminous plasma between the inner jets and the beginning of the tails cannot be explained by any of the conventional models. Neither galactic motion, buoyancy, gravitational bending, nor dynamic pressure can account for the bending of this source. Attention is also given to new possibilities for the dynamics of this type of radio tailed source: the effect of a current in the jets, and the interaction with cooling clouds in the cluster gas.

Eilek, J. A.↗

The stellar content of 30 Doradus

The components of the supergiant H II region Tarantula are surveyed, noting that 30 Doradus is really only the most active section of the Large Magellanic Cloud. The region contains at least 40 WR stars and numerous non-H II region late spectral type supergiants. Most of the stars are centrally located and presumably feed on the nebulosity. The closeness of the population will require fine spectroscopic scans of all the members to achieve accurate typing. Although the population is mixed, the ionizing radiation emitted by the region is consistent with its classification as part of the H II region. Finally, the brightest objects within Tarantula are suspected of being multiple systems.

Walborn, N. R.↗

Determination of cloud liquid water content using the SSM/I

As part of a calibration/validation effort for the special sensor microwave/imager (SSM/I), coincident observations of SSM/I brightness temperatures and surface-based observations of cloud liquid water were obtained. These observations were used to validate initial algorithms and to derive an improved algorithm. The initial algorithms were divided into latitudinal-, seasonal-, and surface-type zones. It was found that these initial algorithms, which were of the D-matrix type, did not yield sufficiently accurate results. The surface-based measurements of channels were investigated; however, the 85V channel was excluded because of excessive noise. It was found that there is no significant correlation between the SSM/I brightness temperatures and the surface-based cloud liquid water determination when the background surface is land or snow. A high correlation was found between brightness temperatures and ground-based measurements over the ocean.

Alishouse, John C.↗