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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,189 records · Page 66
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of fluctuating redox conditions on trace metal release from wetland soils from South Carolina and stream sediments from Tennessee

Natural aquatic systems undergo fluctuating redox conditions due to microbial activity, varying water saturation levels, and nutrients dynamics. With fluctuating oxic and anoxic conditions, trace metals can be mobilized or sequestered in response to changes in iron and sulfur speciation and the concentrations and lability of organic carbon. We conducted a systematic laboratory-based microcosm study to examine the effect of redox fluctuations on trace metal mobility in samples collected from two different natural aquatic systems: riparian wetlands and a stream. We incubated water-saturated soils under three cycles of anoxic-oxic conditions (τanoxic:τoxic = 3) spanning 24 days and monitored the change in dissolved and bioavailable metal (copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), zinc (Zn), cobalt (Co), iron (Fe), and manganese (Mn)) concentrations. The dataset includes the results of the variation in metal concentrations due to redox fluctuations in wetland soils and stream sediments. Additionally, the variation in the bioavailable concentration of metals obtained using passive samplers based on diffuse gradient in thin-films technique is included in the dataset. We have also reported the change in the pH values and dissolved oxygen concentrations in the microcosms during the entire study of 24 days. The dataset also contains the dissolved organic carbon and sulfate concentrations, and the data on fractions of metals bound to reducible and oxidizable phases. For materials from both the wetlands and the stream, anoxic conditions favored Co and Zn release, which corresponded with the reductive dissolution of iron oxides. In contrast, dissolved Cu concentrations increased under oxic conditions for both sites and correlated positively with the release of sulfate. In wetland soils, dissolution of Fe (hydr)oxides increased Ni solubility; however, in stream sediments, Ni release occurred when sulfides or organic matter were oxidized. For stream sediments, each subsequent redox cycle increased the bioavailability of trace metals. Upon redox fluctuations in wetland soils, the bioavailability of Zn and Cu increased, whereas bioavailable Ni and Co decreased. This study illustrates that different trace metals display distinct bioavailability patterns during oxic-anoxic fluctuations in natural environments. The biogeochemical cycling of carbon and nitrogen in systems with redox fluctuations may be influenced by these patterns in trace metal availability in addition to the availability of electron donors and acceptors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decoding the Oxygen Activity with Iron through Ligand-to-Metal Charge Transfer in Li-Rich Layered Cathodes

The quest for high-energy-density and cost-effective cathode materials has revitalized lithium-rich iron-based oxides, where Fe 3+ ions with their stable half-filled d 5 electronic configuration demonstrate unique potentials in regulating oxygen redox activity through ligand-to-metal charge transfer. Using operando 57 Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy, synchrotron X-ray techniques, and density functional theory calculations, we unravel the enhanced Fe–O redox activity through the LMCT process and the concomitant evolution of local structure distortion in the Li-rich layered system Li 1.2 MO 2 (M = Ni, Mn, Fe). The metastable Fe 4+ intermediates facilitate early activation of oxygen redox through LMCT along with increased delithiation at a lowered potential (below 4.5 V). Here, this process inherently suppresses Jahn–Teller distortion of Fe 4+ and exhibits Fe–O redox dominance over conventional Fe 3+ /Fe 4+ redox in Li-rich oxides. The Fe–O coupling redox exhibits improved initial Coulombic efficiency and 95% capacity retention over 200 cycles at 4.4 V. However, the LMCT process is accompanied by aggravated cation migration and voltage fade at low cutoff potentials, which requires further mitigation for the utilization of Fe–O redox. Overall, these findings demonstrate the regulating mechanism of iron for oxygen redox through LMCT and provide fundamental insights into the design principles for high-performance, cost-effective iron-based cathode materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feasibility of Nitrogen as a Carrier Gas for Inconel Cold Spray in Hydropower Application

Cold spray deposition of Inconel nickel alloys has emerged as a promising strategy for mitigating cavitation erosion in hydropower facilities. Most prior developments employ helium (He) as the carrier gas because it enables high particle velocities and the formation of dense coatings. However, He is nearly two orders of magnitude more expensive than nitrogen (N2), which limits its widespread adoption in the hydropower sector. Although He-based cold spray can be justified for high value repairs, the lower cost and broad availability of N2 make it an attractive alternative. This study assesses the feasibility of N2-based cold spray of Inconel 625 powders for hydropower applications. Cavitation erosion testing shows that He-based coating exhibits cavitation resistance of ~398% relative to the 304L stainless steel (SS304L) substrate. In contrast, N2-based coating shows substantially lower cavitation resistance, reaching only ~69% of the SS304L substrate, even when higher carrier gas temperature and pressure are applied. When the Inconel 625 powder size is reduced from 44 to 22 µm under N2-based cold spray conditions, cavitation resistance increases significantly to ~148% of the SS304L substrate. Additional improvement can be obtained by incorporating fine chromium carbide powders into the feedstock, resulting in cavitation resistance of ~172% of the SS304L substrate. Overall, with optimized feedstock design, N2-based cold spray offers a practical and cost-effective approach for producing cavitation resistant coatings on hydropower components, although He-based cold spray continues to deliver higher cavitation resistance.

Wang, Tianhao↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analytic Gaussian covariance matrices for galaxy N-point correlation functions

Here, we derive analytic covariance matrices for the N-point correlation functions (NPCFs) of galaxies in the Gaussian limit. Our results are given for arbitrary N and projected onto the isotropic basis functions given by spherical harmonics and Wigner 3j symbols. A numerical implementation of the 4PCF covariance is compared to the sample covariance obtained from a set of lognormal simulations, Quijote dark matter halo catalogues, and MultiDark-Patchy galaxy mocks, with the latter including realistic survey geometry. The analytic formalism gives reasonable predictions for the covariances estimated from mock simulations with a periodic-box geometry. Furthermore, fitting for an effective volume and number density by maximizing a likelihood based on Kullback-Leibler divergence is shown to partially compensate for the effects of a nonuniform window function. Our result is recently shown to facilitate NPCF analysis on a realistic survey data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ultrathin-film composite (uTFC) membranes based on amorphous perfluoropolymers for liquid separations

Thin-film composite membranes based on ~100nm cross-linked polyamides (PAs) are state-of-the-art membranes for liquid separations such as desalination. However, the PA layer shows poor antifouling properties and instability in chlorine solutions. Herein, we show for the first time that glassy amorphous perfluoropolymers (PFPs, such as Teflon AF and Hyflon AD) can be fabricated into ultrathin film composite (uTFC) membranes with a selective layer of <20nm for desalination. Increasing the polymer concentration in the coating solutions from 0.05 mass% to 0.3 mass% increases the selective layer thickness from 9 to 25nm. When Teflon AF2400 was fabricated into 16-nm selective layers on various porous supports, the water permeance decreases from 0.37 LMH/bar for PES10k to 0.07 LMH/bar for PES1k, and the Na 2 SO 4 rejection increases from 86.6% to 95.2%. While the water permeance is lower than the commercial PA-based NF membranes, the rejection in these PFP-based membranes is comparable. Furthr, the effect of the porous support on the water permeance can be ascribed to the geometric restriction and satisfactorily described using an empirical model. Interestingly, the membranes also exhibit good Na + /Li + separation performance and stable performance for organic solvent nanofiltration, showcasing the versatility of the PFP-based uTFC membranes for various liquid separations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Classical dynamics of vortex solitons from perturbative scattering amplitudes

Abstract We introduce a novel point-particle effective description of ANO vortex solitons in the critical Abelian Higgs Model (AHM) ind= 2 + 1 based on the small winding expansion. Identifying the effective vortices with the elementary quanta of a complex scalar field, relativistic vortex-vortex scattering amplitudes are calculated as a diagrammatic, perturbative expansion in the winding numberN. Making use of powerful techniques recently developed for analyzing the post-Minkowskian two-body problem in general relativity, we efficiently extract the contribution to the loop integrals from the classical potential region, with the resulting velocity expansion subsequently resummed to all orders. The main result of this paper is an analytic expression for the classical, vortex-vortex potential at$$ \mathcal{O} $$ O (N 2 ), or one-loop, with exact velocity dependence. By truncating the resulting effective Hamiltonian at$$ \mathcal{O} $$ O (p 2 ) we derive an analytic, perturbative expression for the metric on the 2-vortex moduli space. Finally, the emergence of the critical AHM from the classical limit of the$$ \mathcal{N} $$ N = 2 supersymmetric AHM, and the resulting constraints on the point-particle EFT is described in detail using an on-shell superspace construction for BPS states ind= 2 + 1.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-throughput screening to predict highly active dual-atom catalysts for electrocatalytic reduction of nitrate to ammonia

Ammonia is an essential chemical owing to its importance in fertilizer production and other industrial applications. Electrocatalytic nitrate reduction to ammonia (NO 3 RR) holds great promise for low-temperature ammonia production while simultaneously addressing nitrate-based environmental concerns. To provide the mechanistic understanding needed to design an effective electrocatalyst, we systematically investigated the catalytic performance of metal-based dual-atom catalysts (DACs) anchored on two-dimensional (2D) expanded phthalocyanine (Pc) for NO 3 RR. We found that NO 3 RR can efficiently produce ammonia on Cr 2 -Pc, V 2 -Pc, Ti 2 -Pc, and Mn 2 -Pc surfaces with low limiting potentials of – 0.02, – 0.25, – 0.34, and – 0.41 V RHE , respectively. Moreover, using the free energy difference of *NO 3 - and *H as a descriptor, we found that the hydrogen evolution reaction is significantly suppressed on the DAC surface due to an ensemble effect in which the two metal atoms cooperate to selectively form ammonia. We performed high-throughput screening to develop an efficient metal-based DAC for NO 3 - reduction, followed by a mechanistic study to elucidate the NO3RR pathway on the DAC. Finally, this work provides design information for advancing sustainable ammonia synthesis under ambient conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ion specific, thin film confinement effects on conductivity in polymerized ionic liquids.

Acrylate-based polymerized ionic liquids (PILs) with ammonium (Am) or imidazolium (Im) cations and tetrafluoroborate (BF4) or bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide (TFSI) anions were synthesized and spin coated onto gold interdigitated electrodes on silica to investigate nanoconfinement effects on ion transport. The film thickness ranged from 23 to 313 nm. A significant reduction of the in-plane conductivity was observed in some PIL thin films with thickness below 100 nm. Specifically, Am BF4 PIL showed the largest conductivity drop (ca. 50% difference between a 22 nm and a 261 nm film) while Im TFSI PIL showed almost no change under confinement. The difference in conductivity drop is discussed in terms of (i) differences in interfacial layer thickness by fitting a two-layer conductivity model and (ii) potential changes in glass transition temperature (T-g) under confinement, which were estimated using the Vogel-Fulcher-Tammann fits of bulk conductivities. Decreasing film thickness also caused the dielectric loss peaks to shift to lower frequency, indicating that the ion diffusion process slowed under confinement.

Zhao, Qiujie↗
DOE OSTI2022

A New Evaluation Metric for Demand Response-Driven Real-Time Price Prediction Towards Sustainable Manufacturing

Abstract The increasing industry energy demand highlights the urgency of demand response management, while the emerging smart manufacturing technologies pave the way for the implementation of real-time price (RTP)-based demand response management towards sustainable manufacturing. The demand response management requires scheduling of manufacturing systems based on RTP predictions, and thus the prediction quality can directly alter the effectiveness of demand response. However, since the general price prediction algorithms and prediction evaluation metrics are not specifically designed for RTP in demand response problems, a good RTP prediction obtained and evaluated by these algorithms and metrics may not be suitable for demand response scheduling. Therefore, in this study, the relationships between the effectiveness of demand response for manufacturing systems and evaluation results from six commonly used metrics are investigated. Meanwhile, a new metric called k-peak distance (KPD), considering the characteristics of the demand response problem, is proposed and compared with the other six metrics. Furthermore, an encoder-decoder long short-term memory recurrent neural network with KPD is proposed to provide better RTP prediction for manufacturing demand response problems. The case studies indicate that the proposed KPD metric shows a 1.8–3.6 times higher correlation with the demand response effectiveness compared to the other metrics. In addition, the production schedule based on the RTP prediction obtained from the proposed algorithm can improve the effectiveness of demand response by 23.4% on average.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ab initio metadynamics calculations reveal complex interfacial effects in acetic acid deprotonation dynamics

Acid-base reactions play a central role in solution chemistry, with carboxylic acids being particularly important in atmospheric chemical processes. In this work, we harness metadynamics calculations with Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics (BOMD) simulations to understand deprotonation dynamics of acetic acid (CH 3 COOH) in both bulk and air-water interfacial environments. Collective variables are carefully chosen in our well-tempered metadynamics simulations to capture the deprotonation process in various aqueous configurations. Herein, our findings show that the free energy barrier for deprotonation of acetic acid at the air-water interface is lower than in the bulk, in accordance with the available experimental data. Furthermore, our well-tempered metadynamics calculations suggest that the variations in free energy are primarily due to intricate solvation shell effects.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Event Cause Analysis in Distribution Networks using Synchro Waveform Measurements

This paper presents a machine learning method for event cause analysis to enhance situational awareness in distribution networks. The data streams are captured using time-synchronized high sampling rates synchro waveform measurement units (SWMU). The proposed method is formulated based on a machine learning method, the convolutional neural network (CNN). This method is capable of capturing the spatiotemporal feature of the measurements effectively and perform the event cause analysis. Several events are considered in this paper to encompass a range of possible events in real distribution networks, including capacitor bank switching, transformer energization, fault, and high impedance fault (HIF). The dataset for our study is generated using the real time digital simulator (RTDS) to simulate real-world events. The event cause analysis is performed using only one cycle of the voltage waveforms after the event is detected. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed machine learning-based method compared to the state-of-the-art classifiers.

Niazazari, Iman↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interactive effects of elevated CO 2 , warming, reduced rainfall, and nitrogen on leaf gas exchange in five perennial grassland species

Abstract Global changes can interact to affect photosynthesis and thus ecosystem carbon capture, yet few multi‐factor field studies exist to examine such interactions. Here, we evaluate leaf gas exchange responses of five perennial grassland species from four functional groups to individual and interactive global changes in an open‐air experiment in Minnesota, USA, including elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ), warming, reduced rainfall and increased soil nitrogen supply. All four factors influenced leaf net photosynthesis and/or stomatal conductance, but almost all effects were context‐dependent, i.e. they differed among species, varied with levels of other treatments and/or depended on environmental conditions. Firstly, the response of photosynthesis to eCO 2 depended on species and nitrogen, became more positive as vapour pressure deficit increased and, for a C 4 grass and a legume, was more positive under reduced rainfall. Secondly, reduced rainfall increased photosynthesis in three functionally distinct species, potentially via acclimation to low soil moisture. Thirdly, warming had positive, neutral or negative effects on photosynthesis depending on species and rainfall. Overall, our results show that interactions among global changes and environmental conditions may complicate predictions based on simple theoretical expectations of main effects, and that the factors and interactions influencing photosynthesis vary among herbaceous species.

Pastore, Melissa A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Attack-resilient algorithms and testbed federation for wide-area protection and control in smart grid

Today’s energy infrastructure is undergoing a massive transformation across all generation, transmission, and distribution systems to provide reliability, efficiency, and sustainability to the power system network. During the past 10 years, there has been a remarkable enhancement in developing close-loop wide-area protection and control (WAPAC) applications, such as automatic generation control (AGC), wide-area protection scheme (WAPS), synchrophasor-based wide-area voltage control system (WAVCS), etc., in the energy management system (EMS) to provide an adequate situational awareness to control center operators during physical disturbances and natural events. The rapid digitalization, unencrypted communication, and numerous data-sharing devices have increased digital access points that have exposed the grid network to countless cyberattacks pertinent to the WAPAC cybersecurity. Given the amount of complex grid network coupled with legacy infrastructures, it is untrustworthy to completely rely on information technology (IT)-based conventional security measures to defend against evolving cyberattacks. Hence, there is a compelling need to go beyond the traditional paradigm of ‘security by obscurity’ and ‘bolt-on’ security measures, and develop a suite of innovative security solutions at multiple layers to transform the current “fault-resilient” grid into “fault and attack-resilient” grid of the future. This dissertation specifically focuses on developing application-specific attack-resilient solutions for critical WAPAC applications in the smart grid. The first part of the study, Attack-Resilient Wide-Area Protection Scheme, presents a cyber-physical attack-resilient system (CPARS) for WAPS, where two anomaly detection methods are proposed to detect multi-level cyberattacks followed by the rules-based intrusion mitigation system (RIMS) to initiate effective mitigation strategies, tailored to these attacks, to restore the normal grid operation after disturbances. The first anomaly detection component, Machine learning-based Anomaly Detection for Centralized WAPS, discusses a novel architecture and methodology for developing a machine-learning-based anomaly detection system (ADS) for the centralized wide-area protection system (CWAPS) by applying the variational mode decomposition (VMD) technique and decision tree (DT) algorithms using cyber logs and synchrophasor measurements. The second component, Multi-Agent-based Anomaly Detection for Decentralized WAPS, presents a two-level hierarchical multi-agent-based decentralized WAPS against the system-aware stealthy cyber-attacks. Finally, for the RIMS, the state transition diagram-based mitigation measures are defined based on the grid operation states and experimental testing and evaluation are presented in a cyber-physical testbed environment. The second part of the study, Attack-Resilient Wide-Area Voltage Control System, addresses the existing vulnerabilities in the wide-area voltage control system (WAVCS), presents the methodology for performing an impact analysis during data integrity attacks, and proposes a data-driven attackresilient system (DARS) by incorporating machine learning-based ADS and rules-based anomaly mitigation system (RAMS) to detect these attacks and provide necessary mitigation actions to maintain the transient voltage stability after disturbances. Finally, the third part, Networked Federation Testbed (NEFTSec) for Smart Grid Cybersecurity, focuses on developing an interconnected federated testbed through a common network like the internet, describes its conceptual architectures, and also presents its design components for experimental testing, validation, and evaluation. Further, it presents the co-simulation interface algorithm (CIA) to facilitate the geographically-dispersed real-time distributed simulation (GD-RTDS) during the cyber-physical federation. In general, this dissertation presents innovative attack-resilient solutions for WAPAC applications that are experimentally tested and evaluated using the PowerCyber testbed and NEFTSec platform to accelerate the transition of state-of-the-art research works to the real-field deployments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mitigation of Cosmic Rays-Induced Errors in Superconducting Quantum Processors

Environmental radioactivity and cosmic-rays have recently been identified as a source of decoherence in super-conducting quantum bits (qubits). In particular, the absorption of cosmic-ray muons and gamma rays emitted by naturally occurring radioactive isotopes in the qubit substrate leads to correlated errors in superconducting quantum processors, posing significant challenges to quantum error correction. To enable quantum computing to scale, it is therefore necessary the devel-opment of mitigation strategies to prevent, or keep under control, error bursts due to particle impacts in the chip. While most environmental radioactive sources can be effectively suppressed using dedicated shielding, cosmic-ray muons, with their high penetration capability, can only be mitigated by moving the entire facility in a deep underground laboratory. This work explores the potential for developing a novel class of quantum processors equipped with an active veto system to protect superconducting-based quantum computers from the detrimental effects of atmospheric muons. Such a device would enable the identification of an atmospheric muon interaction within the processor and veto all operations performed during the occurrence of such an interaction. By demonstrating high detection efficiency and negligible dead time, we aim to establish that the future of quantum processors can be envisioned in above-around facilities.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Surprising similarities in model and observational aerosol radiative forcing estimates

Abstract. The radiative forcing from aerosols (particularly through their interaction with clouds) remains one of the most uncertain components of the human forcing of the climate. Observation-based studies have typically found a smaller aerosol effective radiative forcing than in model simulations and were given preferential weighting in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). With their own sources of uncertainty, it is not clear that observation-based estimates are more reliable. Understanding the source of the model and observational differences is thus vital to reduce uncertainty in the impact of aerosols on the climate. These reported discrepancies arise from the different methods of separating the components of aerosol forcing used in model and observational studies. Applying the observational decomposition to global climate model (GCM) output, the two different lines of evidence are surprisingly similar, with a much better agreement on the magnitude of aerosol impacts on cloud properties. Cloud adjustments remain a significant source of uncertainty, particularly for ice clouds. However, they are consistent with the uncertainty from observation-based methods, with the liquid water path adjustment usually enhancing the Twomey effect by less than 50 %. Depending on different sets of assumptions, this work suggests that model and observation-based estimates could be more equally weighted in future synthesis studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robustness of Deep Learning Classification to Adversarial Input on GPUs: Asynchronous Parallel Accumulation Is a Source of Vulnerability

The ability of machine learning (ML) classification models to resist small, targeted input perturbations—known as adversarial attacks—is a key measure of their safety and reliability. We show that floating-point non associativity (FPNA) coupled with asynchronous parallel programming on GPUs is sufficient to result in misclassification, without any perturbation to the input. Additionally, we show that this misclassification is particularly significant for inputs close to the decision boundary and that standard adversarial robustness results may be overestimated up to 4.6 when not considering machine-level details. We first study a linear classifier, before focusing on standard Graph Neural Network (GNN) architectures and datasets used in robustness assessments. We develop a novel black-box attack using Bayesian optimization to discover external workloads that can change the instruction scheduling which bias the output of reductions on GPUs and reliably lead to misclassification. Motivated by these results, we present a new learnable permutation (LP) gradient-based approach to learning floating-point operation orderings that lead to misclassifications. The LP approach provides a worst-case estimate in a computationally efficient manner, avoiding the need to run identical experiments tens of thousands of times over a potentially large set of possible GPU states or architectures. Finally, using instrumentation-based testing, we investigate parallel reduction ordering across different GPU architectures under external background workloads, when utilizing multi-GPU virtualization, and when applying power capping. Our results demonstrate that parallel reduction ordering varies significantly across architectures under the first two conditions, substantially increasing the search space required to fully test the effects of this parallel scheduler-based vulnerability. These results and the methods developed here can help to include machine-level considerations into adversarial robustness assessments, which can make a difference in safety and mission critical applications.

Shanmugavelu, Sanjif [Maxeler Technologies, a Groq↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tunable mechanical behavior of graphene nanoribbon-metal composites fabricated through an electrocharge-assisted process

This work investigates the role of a carbon nanophase on the local mechanical behavior of nanocarbon metal matrix composites (NCMCs) produced through an electrocharge-assisted process. Nanoindentation experiments on single crystal Al, Al 1350 parent alloys, and Al 1350 NCMCs revealed variable mechanical properties, caused by an interplay between microstructure and graphitic reinforcements. TEM and AFM studies also reveal nanoscale structural changes based on the incorporation of a carbon nanophase. In order to decouple the effects of the aforementioned mechanical behaviors, molecular dynamics nanoindentation simulations were performed on the (111) surface of Al and Al NCMC samples containing semi-infinite graphene nanoribbons to examine the evolution of plasticity over time. Findings indicate that the arrangement of a finite graphene nanophase within a host matrix can alter plasticity mechanisms and therefore yield strength in near-surface mechanical behavior with little effect on elastic properties. Here, this understanding enables further study into tunable bulk properties of Al-based NCMCs while isolating microstructural effects and reinforcement effects of the carbon phase. Such an understanding will lead to application-specific material geometries ranging from highperforming vehicle structures to next-generation electrical devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗