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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1988

Magnetic confinement of cosmic clouds

The role of the magnetic field in the confinement or compression of interstellar gas clouds is reconsidered. The virial theorem for an isolated magnetized cloud in the presence of distant magnetic sources is reformulated in terms of moments of the internal and external currents, and an equilibrium condition is derived. This condition is applied to the interaction between isolated clouds for the simple- and artificial-case in which the field of each cloud is a dipole. With the simplest of statistical assumptions, the probability of any given cloud being compressed is calculated as about 10 percent, the magnetic field acting as a medium which transmits the kinetic pressure between clouds. Even when compression occurs the magnetic pressure 1/2 B-squared may decrease on leaving the cloud surface.

Azar, Michel↗
NASA NTRS1990

The application of optical potentials for reactive scattering - A case study

A precise method is presented for measuring decay fractions of metastable cluster ions with corrections concerning instrumental artifacts and ion trajectory of parents and daughters. Experimental data are used to derive the Gspann parameter and heat capacity of clusters as described in Klots' evaporative ensemble model. The model is applied to obtain binding energies of ammonia cluster ions. The deduced binding energy values are in very good agreement with both thermochemical data and Engelking's (1986) modified statistical theory.

Neuhauser, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS1993

Mapping of the Ronda peridotite massif (Spain) from AVIRIS spectro-imaging survey: A first attempt

In both AVIRIS and ISM data, through the use of mixing models, geological boundaries of the Ronda massif are identified with respect to the surrounding rocks. We can also yield first-order vegetation maps. ISM and AVIRIS instruments give consistent results. On the basis of endmember fraction images, it is then possible to discard areas highly vegetated or not belonging to the peridotite massif. Within the remaining part of the mosaic, spectro-mixing analysis reveals spectral variations in the peridotite massif between the well-exposed areas. Spatially organized units are depicted, related to differences in the relative depth of the absorption band at 1 micron, and it may be due to a different pyroxene content. At this stage, it is worth noting that, although mineralogical variations observed in the rocks are at a sub-pixel scale for the airborne analysis, we see an emerging spatial pattern in the distribution of spectral variations across the massif which might be prevailingly related to mineralogy. Although it is known from fieldwork that the Ronda peridotite massif exhibits mineralogical variations at local scale in the content of pyroxene, and at regional scale in different mineral facies, ranging from garnet-, to spinel- to plagioclase-lherzolites, no attempt has been done yet to produce a synoptic map relating the two scales of analysis. The present work is a first attempt to reach this objective, though a lot more work is still required. In particular, for the purpose of mineralogical interpretation, it is critical to relate the airborne observation to field work and laboratory spectra of Ronda rocks already obtained, with the use of image endmembers and associated reference endmembers. Also, the pretty rough linear mixing model used here is taken as a 'black-box' process which does not necessarily apply correctly to the physical situation at the sub-pixel level. One may think of using the ground-truth observations bearing on the sub-pixel statistical characteristics (texture, structural pattern, surface distribution and vegetation contribution (grass,..)) to produce a more advanced mixing model, physically appropriate to the geologic and environmental contexts.

Pinet, P. C.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Progressive Failure And Life Prediction of Ceramic and Textile Composites

An engineering approach to predict the fatigue life and progressive failure of multilayered composite and textile laminates is presented. Analytical models which account for matrix cracking, statistical fiber failures and nonlinear stress-strain behavior have been developed for both composites and textiles. The analysis method is based on a combined micromechanics, fracture mechanics and failure statistics analysis. Experimentally derived empirical coefficients are used to account for the interface of fiber and matrix, fiber strength, and fiber-matrix stiffness reductions. Similar approaches were applied to textiles using Repeating Unit Cells. In composite fatigue analysis, Walker's equation is applied for matrix fatigue cracking and Heywood's formulation is used for fiber strength fatigue degradation. The analysis has been compared with experiment with good agreement. Comparisons were made with Graphite-Epoxy, C/SiC and Nicalon/CAS composite materials. For textile materials, comparisons were made with triaxial braided and plain weave materials under biaxial or uniaxial tension. Fatigue predictions were compared with test data obtained from plain weave C/SiC materials tested at AS&M. Computer codes were developed to perform the analysis. Composite Progressive Failure Analysis for Laminates is contained in the code CPFail. Micromechanics Analysis for Textile Composites is contained in the code MicroTex. Both codes were adapted to run as subroutines for the finite element code ABAQUS and CPFail-ABAQUS and MicroTex-ABAQUS. Graphic user interface (GUI) was developed to connect CPFail and MicroTex with ABAQUS.

Xue, David Y.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Abel Inversion of Deflectometric Measurements in Dynamic Flows

We present an Abel-inversion algorithm to reconstruct mean and rms refractive-index profiles from spatially resolved statistical measurements of the beam-deflection angle in time-dependent, axisymmetric flows. An oscillating gas-jet diffusion flame was investigated as a test case for applying the algorithm. Experimental data were obtained across the whole field by a rainbow schlieren apparatus. Results show that simultaneous multipoint measurements are necessary to reconstruct the rms refractive index accurately.

Agrawal, Ajay K.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Robotic Rock Classification

This report describes a three-month research program undertook jointly by the Robotics Institute at Carnegie Mellon University and Ames Research Center as part of the Ames' Joint Research Initiative (JRI.) The work was conducted at the Ames Research Center by Mr. Liam Pedersen, a graduate student in the CMU Ph.D. program in Robotics under the supervision Dr. Ted Roush at the Space Science Division of the Ames Research Center from May 15 1999 to August 15, 1999. Dr. Martial Hebert is Mr. Pedersen's research adviser at CMU and is Principal Investigator of this Grant. The goal of this project is to investigate and implement methods suitable for a robotic rover to autonomously identify rocks and minerals in its vicinity, and to statistically characterize the local geological environment. Although primary sensors for these tasks are a reflection spectrometer and color camera, the goal is to create a framework under which data from multiple sensors, and multiple readings on the same object, can be combined in a principled manner. Furthermore, it is envisioned that knowledge of the local area, either a priori or gathered by the robot, will be used to improve classification accuracy. The key results obtained during this project are: The continuation of the development of a rock classifier; development of theoretical statistical methods; development of methods for evaluating and selecting sensors; and experimentation with data mining techniques on the Ames spectral library. The results of this work are being applied at CMU, in particular in the context of the Winter 99 Antarctica expedition in which the classification techniques will be used on the Nomad robot. Conversely, the software developed based on those techniques will continue to be made available to NASA Ames and the data collected from the Nomad experiments will also be made available.

Hebert, Martial↗
NASA NTRS2008

Reliability and Confidence Interval Analysis of a CMC Turbine Stator Vane

High temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are being explored as viable candidate materials for hot section gas turbine components. These advanced composites can potentially lead to reduced weight, enable higher operating temperatures requiring less cooling and thus leading to increased engine efficiencies. However, these materials are brittle and show degradation with time at high operating temperatures due to creep as well as cyclic mechanical and thermal loads. In addition, these materials are heterogeneous in their make-up and various factors affect their properties in a specific design environment. Most of these advanced composites involve two- and three-dimensional fiber architectures and require a complex multi-step high temperature processing. Since there are uncertainties associated with each of these in addition to the variability in the constituent material properties, the observed behavior of composite materials exhibits scatter. Traditional material failure analyses employing a deterministic approach, where failure is assumed to occur when some allowable stress level or equivalent stress is exceeded, are not adequate for brittle material component design. Such phenomenological failure theories are reasonably successful when applied to ductile materials such as metals. Analysis of failure in structural components is governed by the observed scatter in strength, stiffness and loading conditions. In such situations, statistical design approaches must be used. Accounting for these phenomena requires a change in philosophy on the design engineer s part that leads to a reduced focus on the use of safety factors in favor of reliability analyses. The reliability approach demands that the design engineer must tolerate a finite risk of unacceptable performance. This risk of unacceptable performance is identified as a component's probability of failure (or alternatively, component reliability). The primary concern of the engineer is minimizing this risk in an economical manner. The methods to accurately determine the service life of an engine component with associated variability have become increasingly difficult. This results, in part, from the complex missions which are now routinely considered during the design process. These missions include large variations of multi-axial stresses and temperatures experienced by critical engine parts. There is a need for a convenient design tool that can accommodate various loading conditions induced by engine operating environments, and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life of a structural component. A probabilistic composite micromechanics technique in combination with woven composite micromechanics, structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Furthermore, input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Since the measured data for the ceramic matrix composite properties is very limited, obtaining a probabilistic distribution with their corresponding parameters is difficult. In case of limited data, confidence bounds are essential to quantify the uncertainty associated with the distribution. Usually 90 and 95% confidence intervals are computed for material properties. Failure properties are then computed with the confidence bounds. Best estimates and the confidence bounds on the best estimate of the cumulative probability function for R-S (strength - stress) are plotted. The methodologies and the results from these analyses will be discussed in the presentation.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Personalized Risk Assesment for Adverse Drug Reactions and Treatment Failures

As NASA and other space agencies prepare for future long-term space missions beyond the LEO, the cumulative impact of risk factors encountered in space increases substantially rising concerns about astronauts health. Application of on-board medications to mitigate clinical symptoms associated with certain medical conditions and illnesses is the first line of response to ensure sustainable health and performance of crew. Unfortunately, very limited research has been conducted to determine efficacy of the earth-based pharmaceuticals in a microgravity environment. In some instances, orally administered medications taken during flight were reported to be less effective than expected. Evaluation of series of experiments involving astronauts from shuttle flights shows notable individual variability to several pharmaceuticals during flight. These data provide reasonable assumption of perturbation in CYP450 enzymes during spaceflight, which contribute to the hepatic metabolism of the majority of drugs and therefore may have significant effects on therapeutic efficacy and increase treatment-related toxicity. The genes encoding the CYP450 enzymes are highly variable in humans. Inheritable variations of CYP450 hepatic metabolizer enzymes and transport proteins play a crucial role in the inter-individual variability of drug efficiency and risks of adverse drug reactions. Additionally, there are some reports that document changes in the levels of production of drug-metabolizing enzymes in microgravity. Therefore, in order to provide a safe and effective pharmaceutical treatment in space, medications selection should be based not only on the specific efficacy of medications but also on the individual drug sensitivity and flight-induced changes in metabolism of astronauts chosen for a particular mission. To our knowledge, there was no pre-flight drug sensitivity testing on a genetic level for any of the previous manned NASA space missions. Therefore, technologies capable of predicting and managing medication efficacy, side effects, and toxicity of drugs based on individual genetic variability of crew members are increasingly needed. In this report, we present results of testing the market available Personalized Prescribing System (PPS), a comprehensive, non-invasive solution for safer, targeted medication management for every crew member. Statistical accuracy and simplicity of non-invasive sample analysis demonstrate the feasibility of drug sensitivity assessment and record-keeping tool for flight surgeons and astronauts in applying the recommended medications for situations arising in flight. The information on individual drug sensitivity will translate into personalized risk assessment for adverse drug reactions and treatment failures for each drug from the medication kit as well as predefined outcome. This will address the HHC’s raised “Concern of Clinically Relevant Unpredicted Effects of Medication” as recently updated.

medications↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

QuantifyML: How Good is My Machine Learning Model?

We present QuantifyML, which applies model counting to assess the learn ability, safety, and robustness of machine learning models. Typically, the efficacy of machine learning models is determined by computing their accuracy statistically on test datasets. However, this may be misleading, if the test data is not representative of the problem that is being studied. With QuantifyML we aim to precisely quantify the extent to which machine learning models have learned and generalized from the given data. In QuantifyML, a trained model is translated into aC program, which is fed to the CBMC model checking tool to produce a formula in Conjunctive Normal Form (CNF), which in turn is analyzed with state-of-the-art model counters to efficiently obtain precise countsw.r.t different outputs. QuantifyML enables i) evaluating the learnability of models by comparing the counts for the outputs to ground truth, ex-pressed as logical predicates (if available), ii) comparing the performance of different models that may be built with different machine learning algorithms (e.g., decision-trees vs. neural networks), and iii) quantifying the safety and robustness of trained models.

Deep Neural Networks↗
DOE OSTI2023

An asymptotic approach for the statistical thermodynamics of certain model systems

In classical statistical thermodynamics, calculating the configuration integral is both vital and elusive. Analytic relations for configuration integrals are desirable for modeling purposes, but it is typically impossible to obtain them. Certain systems become analytically tractable after replacing steep potential energies with harmonic potentials or athermal rigid constraints, but these approximations are often inadequate, especially when modeling the stretching of molecules. It is therefore necessary to develop a systematic approach to improve upon the approximations provided by these reference systems. Here, a general asymptotic approach is introduced, where the configuration integral for the full system is obtained in terms of that of the reference system and several corrections. This asymptotic approach is first demonstrated using the simple example of a classical three-dimensional oscillator. Next, the approach is applied to modeling the stretching of single polymer chains and to modeling thermally assisted crack growth, where results are verified with respect to numerical calculations. Overall, this asymptotic approach is a valid and effective tool for statistical thermodynamics in general.

Buche, Michael Robert↗
DOE OSTI2026

Anomaly Detection for Online Monitoring of Thermocouple Sensors in the Advanced Test Reactor

This study explores data-driven anomaly detection methods to analyze sensor fail- ures in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) nuclear fuel irradiation experiments. Specifically, we examine failures of thermocouples (TCs), which are critical for mon- itoring and controlling in-reactor temperatures during operation. Failures were pri- marily observed during abrupt power transitions and manifested as sensor drop-outs, drifts, or unexplained behavior. We applied three time-series analysis techniques— rolling mean smoothing, matrix profile, and vector auto-regression (VAR)—to de- tect anomalies in TC data prior to failure events. The rolling mean method effec- tively highlighted deviations aligned with reported failures, while the matrix profile provided partial early warning but sometimes flagged normal fluctuations during power-down periods. VAR shows potential in capturing multivariate dependencies but requires further calibration. A rare case of TC drift was also documented, which did not result in failure, underscoring the challenge of building predictive models with sparse positive examples. Our findings demonstrate that traditional statistical tools can aid anomaly detection but have limited predictive power without richer training data. We propose future directions including synthetic data generation, real- time surrogate modeling, and multi-modal feature integration. This work provides a foundation for applying robust anomaly detection frameworks to mission-critical sensor systems in experimental settings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cross-Market Price Difference Forecast Using Deep Learning for Electricity Markets

Price forecasting is in the center of decision making in electricity markets. Many researches have been done in forecasting energy prices while little research has been reported on forecasting price difference between day-ahead and realtime markets due to its high volatility, which however plays a critical role in virtual trading. To this end, this paper takes the first attempt to employ novel deep learning architecture with Bidirectional Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) units to forecast the price difference between day-ahead and real-time markets for the same node. The raw data is collected from PJM market, processed and fed into the proposed network. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and customized performance metric are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Case studies show that it outperforms the traditional statistical models like ARIMA, and machine learning models like XGBoost and SVR methods in both RMSE and the capability of forecasting the sign of price difference. Additionally, to cross-market price difference forecast, the proposed approach has the potential to be applied to solve other forecasting problems such as price spread forecast in DA market for Financial Transmission Right (FTR) trading purpose.

DA/RT price difference↗
NASA NTRS2013

Application of Statistically Derived CPAS Parachute Parameters

The Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) Analysis Team is responsible for determining parachute inflation parameters and dispersions that are ultimately used in verifying system requirements. A model memo is internally released semi-annually documenting parachute inflation and other key parameters reconstructed from flight test data. Dispersion probability distributions published in previous versions of the model memo were uniform because insufficient data were available for determination of statistical based distributions. Uniform distributions do not accurately represent the expected distributions since extreme parameter values are just as likely to occur as the nominal value. CPAS has taken incremental steps to move away from uniform distributions. Model Memo version 9 (MMv9) made the first use of non-uniform dispersions, but only for the reefing cutter timing, for which a large number of sample was available. In order to maximize the utility of the available flight test data, clusters of parachutes were reconstructed individually starting with Model Memo version 10. This allowed for statistical assessment for steady-state drag area (CDS) and parachute inflation parameters such as the canopy fill distance (n), profile shape exponent (expopen), over-inflation factor (C(sub k)), and ramp-down time (t(sub k)) distributions. Built-in MATLAB distributions were applied to the histograms, and parameters such as scale (sigma) and location (mu) were output. Engineering judgment was used to determine the "best fit" distribution based on the test data. Results include normal, log normal, and uniform (where available data remains insufficient) fits of nominal and failure (loss of parachute and skipped stage) cases for all CPAS parachutes. This paper discusses the uniform methodology that was previously used, the process and result of the statistical assessment, how the dispersions were incorporated into Monte Carlo analyses, and the application of the distributions in trajectory benchmark testing assessments with parachute inflation parameters, drag area, and reefing cutter timing used by CPAS.

Romero, Leah M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

The maximum extent of the filaments and sheets in the cosmic web: an analysis of the SDSS DR17

Filaments and sheets are striking visual patterns in cosmic web. The maximum extent of these large-scale structures are difficult to determine due to their structural variety and complexity. We construct a volume-limited sample of galaxies in a cubic region from the SDSS, divide it into smaller subcubes and shuffle them around. We quantify the average filamentarity and planarity in the 3D galaxy distribution as a function of the density threshold and compare them with those from the shuffled realizations of the original data. The analysis is repeated for different shuffling lengths by varying the size of the subcubes. The average filamentarity and planarity in the shuffled data show a significant reduction when the shuffling scales are smaller than the maximum size of the genuine filaments and sheets. We observe a statistically significant reduction in these statistical measures even at a shuffling scale of $\sim 130 \, {{\, \rm Mpc}}$, indicating that the filaments and sheets in three dimensions can extend up to this length scale. They may extend to somewhat larger length scales that are missed by our analysis due to the limited size of the SDSS data cube. We expect to determine these length scales by applying this method to deeper and larger surveys in future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2014

Improved Broadband Liner Optimization Applied to the Advanced Noise Control Fan

The broadband component of fan noise has grown in relevance with the utilization of increased bypass ratio and advanced fan designs. Thus, while the attenuation of fan tones remains paramount, the ability to simultaneously reduce broadband fan noise levels has become more desirable. This paper describes improvements to a previously established broadband acoustic liner optimization process using the Advanced Noise Control Fan rig as a demonstrator. Specifically, in-duct attenuation predictions with a statistical source model are used to obtain optimum impedance spectra over the conditions of interest. The predicted optimum impedance information is then used with acoustic liner modeling tools to design liners aimed at producing impedance spectra that most closely match the predicted optimum values. Design selection is based on an acceptance criterion that provides the ability to apply increased weighting to specific frequencies and/or operating conditions. Constant-depth, double-degree of freedom and variable-depth, multi-degree of freedom designs are carried through design, fabrication, and testing to validate the efficacy of the design process. Results illustrate the value of the design process in concurrently evaluating the relative costs/benefits of these liner designs. This study also provides an application for demonstrating the integrated use of duct acoustic propagation/radiation and liner modeling tools in the design and evaluation of novel broadband liner concepts for complex engine configurations.

Nark, Douglas M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Many-Body Level Statistics of Single-Particle Quantum Chaos

We consider a noninteracting many-fermion system populating levels of a unitary random matrix ensemble (equivalent to the q = 2 complex Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev model)—a generic model of single-particle quantum chaos. We study the corresponding many-particle level statistics by calculating the spectral form factor analytically using algebraic methods of random matrix theory, and match it with an exact numerical simulation. Despite the integrability of the theory, the many-body spectral rigidity is found to have a surprisingly rich landscape. In particular, we find a residual repulsion of distant many-body levels stemming from single-particle chaos, together with islands of level attraction. These results are encoded in an exponential ramp in the spectral form factor, which we show to be a universal feature of nonergodic many-fermion systems embedded in a chaotic medium.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Non-local contribution from small scales in galaxy–galaxy lensing: comparison of mitigation schemes

ABSTRACT Recent cosmological analyses with large-scale structure and weak lensing measurements, usually referred to as 3 × 2pt, had to discard a lot of signal to noise from small scales due to our inability to accurately model non-linearities and baryonic effects. Galaxy–galaxy lensing, or the position–shear correlation between lens and source galaxies, is one of the three two-point correlation functions that are included in such analyses, usually estimated with the mean tangential shear. However, tangential shear measurements at a given angular scale θ or physical scale R carry information from all scales below that, forcing the scale cuts applied in real data to be significantly larger than the scale at which theoretical uncertainties become problematic. Recently, there have been a few independent efforts that aim to mitigate the non-locality of the galaxy–galaxy lensing signal. Here, we perform a comparison of the different methods, including the Y-transformation, the point-mass marginalization methodology, and the annular differential surface density statistic. We do the comparison at the cosmological constraints level in a combined galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing analysis. We find that all the estimators yield equivalent cosmological results assuming a simulated Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Year 1 like set-up and also when applied to DES Y3 data. With the LSST Y1 set-up, we find that the mitigation schemes yield ∼1.3 times more constraining S8 results than applying larger scale cuts without using any mitigation scheme.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Examining Tropical Convection Features at Storm-Resolving Scales Over the Maritime Continent Region

Global Storm Resolving Models (GSRMs) provide a way to understand weather and climate events across scales for better-informed climate impacts. In this work, we apply the recently developed and validated CAM (Community Atmosphere Model)—MPAS (Model for Prediction Across Scales) modeling framework, based on the open-source Community Earth System Model (CESM2), to examine the tropical convection features at the storm resolving scale over the Maritime Continent region at 3 km horizontal spacing. We target two global numerical experiments during the winter season of 2018 for comparison with observation in the region. Here we focus on the investigation of the representations of the convective systems, precipitation statistics, and tropical cyclone behaviors. We found that regional-refined experiments show more accurate precipitation distributions, diurnal cycles, and better agreement with observations for tropical cyclone features in terms of intensity and strength statistics. We expect the exploration of this work will further advance the development and use of the storm-resolving model in precipitation predictions across scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗