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The potential benefits of remote SEASAT-A satellite sensing of wind directional wave spectra by active microwave systems are elaborated. It is shown that a combined effort which uses supplemental satellite information in numerical forecasting and hindcasting schemes upgrades the accuracy of existing forecasting methods of an order of magnitude.
Mesoscale thermal-induced circulations generated by horizontal gradients in surface characteristics as well as significant perturbations on land and sea breezes and mountain-valley winds due to substantial modifications in the thermal forcing are introduced. It is suggested that these types of mesoscale situations are generally ignored in forecasting but that they may have important implications in very short range predictions.
The results of the attempts to use VAS (visible IR spin scan radiometer atmospheric sounder) data for predicting tropical cyclones are reported. VAS, mounted on a GEO platform, has 14 detectors for upwelling radiance. The McIDAS software was, by the 1983 hurricane season, upgraded to providing imagery and mass, motion and moisture patterns using the satellite data, which also permitted determinations of accurate temperature and moisture profiles. Comparisons made between VAS and radiosonde data revealed fairly close agreement of satellite and in-situ conditions during the 1983 season. When combined with data from the Tiros operational vertical sounder (TOVS) to define wind streamlines and predict the path of a hurricane from data fed into numerical models, sufficiently good agreement was obtained to initiate plans to forecast a hurricane trajectory during the 1984 season.
It is pointed out that modern data sets pertaining to the motions of the solid earth and the atmosphere have begun to achieve an accuracy sufficient to justify renewed interest in the classic problem of explaining variations in the rotation rate of the earth. The possibility exists that deficiencies in the current meteorological data sets account for most of the discrepancies in the annual and semiannual earth-atmosphere momentum budgets. On the basis of composite stratospheric wind analyses produced by Belmont et al. (1974), it has been demonstrated that the seasonal components of the stratosphere's momentum could contribute significantly to a reduction of the seasonal discrepancies thought to exist in the earth-atmosphere momentum budget. The present investigation is further concerned with this subject. A newly available stratospheric wind data set is utilized in conjunction with concurrent U.S. National Meteorological Center data and data of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts.
The evolution of three cyclones which originated in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, two of which propagated into middle latitudes, are traced. The analysis is based on IR imagery from GOES-W, island meteorological station data, and estimates of heat and moisture budget residuals. A European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting Level III-b analysis was used to model the cyclones. The northward-propagating storms exhibited strong vertical shear of the horizontal wind, implicating baroclinic effects in the development of the storms. The processes which enhanced storm intensification are discussed. Attention is given to the spatial and temporal behavior of dynamic atmospheric components which were significant to baroclinicity and latent heat release, which the analysis demonstrates were coupled processes.
Mangroves supply many essential environmental amenities, such as preventing soil erosion, filtering water pollution, and protecting shorelines from harmful waves, floods, storms and winds. The Mangroves in Myanmar not only provide citizens with a food source, but they also offer firewood, charcoal, and construction materials. The depletion of mangroves is threatening more than the biodiversity however; Myanmar's fiscal livelihood is also in harm's way. Mangroves are valued at $100,000 to $277,000 per square kilometer and if managed in a sustainable fashion, can infuse constant income to the emerging Myanmarese economy. This study analyzed three coastline regions, the Ayeyarwady Delta, Rakhine and Tanintharyi, and mapped the spatial extent of mangrove forest during the dry season in 2000 and 2013. The classifications were derived from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Landsat 8 Operation Land Imager (OLI) imagery, as well as the Terra Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) digital elevation model information. This data was atmospherically corrected, mosaicked, masked and classified in ENVI, followed by ArcGIS to perform raster calculations and create final products. Forest degradation collected from 2000 to 2013 was later used to forecast the density and health of Mangroves in the year 2030. These results were subsequently presented to project partners Dr. Peter Leimgruber and Ellen Aiken at the Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute in Front Royal, VA. After the presentation of the project to the partners, these organizations formally passed on to the Myanmar Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Forestry for policy makers and forest managers to utilize in order to protect the Myanmar mangrove ecosystem while sustaining a healthy economy.
A two-dimensional, time-dependent cloud model has been used in two field projects to forecast the convective development during the day from the morning sounding. In effect, the cloud model gives a dynamic analysis of the sounding as affected by heating and evaporation at the earth's surface, divergence of the winds throughout the atmosphere, and cloud shadow effects. During the initial project, the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment, the results were mixed. Model runs were easily made when soundings were available. but displaying the results in a meaningful and useful way was the limiting factor. In a later experiment, the North Dakota Thunderstorm Project, the problem of displaying results was overcome and soundings were available from the local weather service forecast office with a high degree of reliability. The experimental model correctly forecasts convective development about 80% of the time, and precipitation or no precipitation more than 70% of the time.
A reduced order Kalman Filter, based on a simplification of the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter equations, is used to assimilate observed fields of the surface wind stress, sea surface temperature and sea level into the nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model of Zebiak and Cane. The SEEK filter projects the Kalman Filter equations onto a subspace defined by the eigenvalue decomposition of the error forecast matrix, allowing its application to high dimensional systems. The Zebiak and Cane model couples a linear reduced gravity ocean model with a single vertical mode atmospheric model of Zebiak. The compatibility between the simplified physics of the model and each observed variable is studied separately and together. The results show the ability of the model to represent the simultaneous value of the wind stress, SST and sea level, when the fields are limited to the latitude band 10 deg S - 10 deg N In this first application of the Kalman Filter to a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction model, the sea level fields are assimilated in terms of the Kelvin and Rossby modes of the thermocline depth anomaly. An estimation of the error of these modes is derived from the projection of an estimation of the sea level error over such modes. This method gives a value of 12 for the error of the Kelvin amplitude, and 6 m of error for the Rossby component of the thermocline depth. The ability of the method to reconstruct the state of the equatorial Pacific and predict its time evolution is demonstrated. The method is shown to be quite robust for predictions up to six months, and able to predict the onset of the 1997 warm event fifteen months before its occurrence.
Unexpected turbulence especially in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere where cabin crews and passengers in cruising aircraft are likely to unbuckle causes in-flight injuries, structural damage, and flight delay. Therefore, turbulence information can be used to improve safety while pursuing efficiency in Air-Traffic Management (ATM). In this chapter, simple modeling of aircraft trajectories combined with wind and turbulence predictions can suggest the optimal solution of flight plans that minimizes both total flight time (e.g., fuel consumption) and potential encounters of turbulence from departure to arrival airports. Also, probabilistic ensemble turbulence forecasts are applied to suggest an optimal strategic and tactical ATM route planning in a given weather and turbulence condition in the United States which are evaluated against in situ Eddy Dissipation Rate observations from commercial aircraft. Finally, variations of long-haul trans-Oceanic flight routes and their turbulence potentials are investigated using a global reanalysis data to understand how the upper-level large-scale flow patterns can affect the long-term ATM planning through the changes of winds and turbulence conditions.
A geostationary microwave sounder, GeoSTAR, capable of providing continuous monitoring every 15 minutes of atmospheric temperature, water vapor, clouds, precipitation, and wind in the presence of clouds and precipitation, which will add tremendously to our ability to observe rapidly evolving dynamic atmospheric phenomena, such as hurricanes and severe storms, monsoonal moisture flow, and atmospheric rivers, has been developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. GeoSTAR uses aperture synthesis to overcome the difficulty of attaining adequate spatial resolution from geostationary orbit. It is made possible with new technology that has now been developed and fully tested. Low-risk mission development can start as soon as funding becomes available. The sensor can be hosted on a commercial communications satellite, which could reduce the cost substantially. Plans have been developed at JPL for such a mission, called “GeoStorm”, focused on observing severe convective storms – tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems, and extratropical cyclones – with a goal of improving our understanding, modeling and prediction of these destructive phenomena. It can equally well be configured as an operational mission, where the goal is to collect data for immediate assimilation into regional forecast systems, provide “now-casting” as the storms unfold, and support post-disaster relief and recovery efforts. With key observables including vertical profiles of temperature, water vapor, wind and precipitation over a wide area, many focused applications are possible, particularly pertaining to aviation, transportation and marine operations, in both the civilian and defense domains.
Experiments were performed to examine the impact of adopting various procedures in the assimilation of patches of data during the progress of a numerical forecast. A barotropic model described by Takacs and Balgovind, 1983 is used for the experiments. The model is global and its discretization is similar to the GLA Fourth Order GCM. The effect of orography is included in the model. The experiments are of an identical twin kind. The nature run starts from global fields of wind (u and v) and height (h) at 300 mb. They are real data of January, 1979 OOZ which were interpolated from the adjacent sigma levels of the GLA GCM and then balanced by the bounded derivative method. From this initial state a 6 day forecast is performed. At intervals of 3 hours this information is saved over sectors of 60 width in longitude, from the south pole to the north pole, to simulate data coverage and observational frequency of a polar orbiting satellite.
The combination of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal model, ENLIL heliospherical model version 2.7, and CONED Model version 1.3 (WSA-ENLIL with CONED Model) was employed to form ensemble forecasts for 15 halo coronal mass ejections (halo CMEs). The input parameter distributions were formed from 100 sets of CME cone parameters derived from the CONED Model. The CONED Model used image processing along with the bootstrap approach to automatically calculate cone parameter distributions from SOHO/LASCO imagery based on techniques described by Pulkkinen et al. (2010). The input parameter distributions were used as input to WSA-ENLIL to calculate the temporal evolution of the CMEs, which were analyzed to determine the propagation times to the L1 Lagrangian point and the maximum Kp indices due to the impact of the CMEs on the Earth's magnetosphere. The Newell et al. (2007) Kp index formula was employed to calculate the maximum Kp indices based on the predicted solar wind parameters near Earth assuming two magnetic field orientations: a completely southward magnetic field and a uniformly distributed clock-angle in the Newell et al. (2007) Kp index formula. The forecasts for 5 of the 15 events had accuracy such that the actual propagation time was within the ensemble average plus or minus one standard deviation. Using the completely southward magnetic field assumption, 10 of the 15 events contained the actual maximum Kp index within the range of the ensemble forecast, compared to 9 of the 15 events when using a uniformly distributed clock angle.
Several pulsar wind nebulae (PWN) have been detected in the TeV band in the last decade. TeV emission is typically interpreted in a purely leptonic scenario, but this often requires that the magnetic field in the nebula be much lower than the equipartition value, as well as the assumption of an enhanced density of target radiation at IR frequencies. In this work, we consider the possibility that, in addition to the relativistic electrons and positrons, relativistic hadrons are also present in these nebulae. Assuming that some of the emitted TeV photons are of hadronic origin, we compute the associated flux of ∼1--100 TeV neutrinos. We use IceCube non-detection to put constraints on the fraction of TeV photons that might be contributed by hadrons and estimate the number of neutrino events that can be expected from these sources in ANTARES and KM3Net.
Abstract Convectively coupled equatorial waves are a significant source of atmospheric variability in the tropics. Current numerical models continue to struggle in simulating the coupled diabatic heating fields that are responsible for the development and maintenance of these waves. This study investigates how the diabatic fields associated with Mixed Rossby–Gravity waves (MRGs) are represented in four reanalysis products by using a unique observational dataset from the TRMM‐KWAJEX (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission‐Kwajalein Experiment) field campaign. These reanalyses include ERA5, Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis (JRA‐55), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). We found that all four reanalyses captured the MRG structures in winds and temperature, and to a lesser degree in the humidity field except in the boundary layer. However, only the ERA5 and MERRA reanalyses captured the gradual rise and succession of the diabatic heating from boundary layer turbulence, shallow convection, cumulus congestus, and deep convection within the waves. ERA5 is the only product that also captured the gradual rise of the subgrid‐scale vertical transport of moist static energy. All reanalysis products underestimated the diabatic heating from cumulus congestus. Results provide observational basis on what aspects of MRG can be trusted and what cannot in the reanalysis products.
Evaluates the reserve requirements for power system balancing areas based on variability and uncertainty of load as well as wind and solar generation scenarios. The tool uses minute‐by‐minute site‐specific generation and load information, as well as information from generation and load forecasting algorithms used in the balancing areas. The Balancing‐Plan Tool can be used directly by utility planners and operators to aid in the integration of intermittent renewable resources. The tool provides reserve requirements of various kinds, such as day‐ahead, load following and regulation, as well as estimates the capacity of the generation fleet to provide the require reserves.
In June 2020, the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Basin were affected by a series of African dust outbreaks unprecedented in size and intensity. These events, informally named “Godzilla,” coincided with CALIMA, a large field campaign, offering a rare opportunity to assess the impact of African dust on air quality in the Greater Caribbean Basin. Network measurements of respirable particles (i.e., PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) showed that dust significantly degraded regional air quality and increased the risk to public health in the Caribbean, the southern United States, northern South America, and Central America. CALIMA examined the meteorological context of Godzilla dust events over North Africa and how these conditions might relate to the greatly increased dust emissions and enhanced transport to the Americas. Godzilla was linked to strong pressure anomalies over West Africa, resulting in a large-scale geostrophic wind anomaly at 700 hPa over North Africa. We used surface-based and columnar measurements to test the performance of two frequently used aerosol forecast models: the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) models. The models showed some skills but differed substantially between their forecasts, suggesting large uncertainties in these forecasts that are critical for issuing early warnings of health-threatening dust events. Our results demonstrate the value of an integrated approach in characterizing the spatial and temporal variability of African dust transport and assessing its impact on regional air quality. Future studies are needed to improve models and to track the long-term changes in dust transport from Africa under a changing climate.
This study examines the link between upper-tropospheric planetary-scale Rossby waves and surface meteorological parameters based on the observations made in association with the Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX) campaign at an extratropical site at Aryabhatta Research Institute of Observational Sciences, Nainital (29.45° N, 79.5° E) during November–December 2011. The spectral analysis of the tropospheric wind field from radiosonde measurements indicates a predominance power of around 8 days in the upper troposphere during the observational period. An analysis of the 200 hPa meridional wind (v200 hPa) anomalies from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis shows distinct Rossby-wave-like structures over a high-altitude site in the central Himalayan region. Furthermore, the spectral analysis of global v200 hPa anomalies indicates the Rossby waves are characterized by zonal wave number 6. The amplification of the Rossby wave packets over the site leads to persistent subtropical jet stream (STJ) patterns, which further affects the surface weather conditions. The propagating Rossby waves in the upper troposphere along with the undulations in the STJ create convergence and divergence regions in the mid-troposphere. Therefore, the surface meteorological parameters such as the relative humidity, wind speeds, and temperature are synchronized with the phase of the propagating Rossby waves. Moreover, the present study finds important implications for medium-range forecasting through the upper-level Rossby waves over the study region.
To study the potential impact of advanced passive sounders and lidar temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind observing systems on large-scale numerical weather prediction, a series of realistic simulation studies between the European Center for medium-range weather forecasts, the National Meteorological Center, and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences is conducted. The project attempts to avoid the unrealistic character of earlier simulation studies. The previous simulation studies and real-data impact tests are reviewed and the design of the current simulation system is described. Consideration is given to the simulation of observations of space-based sounding systems.