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NASA NTRS2010

International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)

The International Heliophysical Year (IHY), an international program of scientific collaboration to understand the external drivers of planetary environments, has come to an end. The IHY was a major international event of great interest to the member States, which involved the deployment of new instrumentation, new observations from the ground and in space, and an education component. We propose to continue the highly successful collaboration between the heliophysics science community and the United Nations Basic Space Science (UNBSS) program. One of the major thrust of the IHY was to deploy arrays of small instruments such as magnetometers, radio antennas, GPS receivers, all-sky cameras, particle detectors, etc. around the world to provide global measurements of heliospheric phenomena. The United Nations Basic Space Science Initiative (UNBSSI) played a major role in this effort. Scientific teams were organized through UNBSS, which consisted of a lead scientist who provided the instruments or fabrication plans for instruments in the array. As a result of the this program, scientists from UNBSS member states now participate in the instrument operation, data collection, analysis, and publication of scientific results, working at the forefront of science research. As part of this project, support for local scientists, facilities and data acquisition is provided by the host nation. In addition, support at the Government level is provided for local scientists to participate. Building on momentum of the IHY, we propose to continue the highly successful collaboration with the UNBSS program to continue the study of universal processes in the solar system that affect the interplanetary and terrestrial environments, and to continue to coordinate the deployment and operation of new and existing instrument arrays aimed at understanding the impacts of Space Weather on Earth and the near-Earth environment. Toward this end, we propose a new program, the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI).

Davila, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS2010

The International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)

The International Heliophysical Year (IHY) provided a successful model for the deployment of arrays of small scientific instruments in new and scientifically interesting geographic locations, and outreach. The new International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) is designed to build on this momentum to promote the observation, understanding, and prediction space weather phenomena, and to communicate the scientific results to the public.

Davila, Joseph M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Impact of High Resolution SST Data on Regional Weather Forecasts

Past studies have shown that the use of coarse resolution SST products such as from the real-time global (RTG) SST analysis[1] or other coarse resolution once-a-day products do not properly portray the diurnal variability of fluxes of heat and moisture from the ocean that drive the formation of low level clouds and precipitation over the ocean. For example, the use of high resolution MODIS SST composite [2] to initialize the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) (ARW) [3] has been shown to improve the prediction of sensible weather parameters in coastal regions [4][5}. In an extend study, [6] compared the MODIS SST composite product to the RTG SST analysis and evaluated forecast differences for a 6 month period from March through August 2007 over the Florida coastal regions. In a comparison to buoy data, they found that that the MODIS SST composites reduced the bias and standard deviation over that of the RTG data. These improvements led to significant changes in the initial and forecasted heat fluxes and the resulting surface temperature fields, wind patterns, and cloud distributions. They also showed that the MODIS composite SST product, produced for the Terra and Aqua satellite overpass times, captured a component of the diurnal cycle in SSTs not represented in the RTG or other one-a-day SST analyses. Failure to properly incorporate these effects in the WRF initialization cycle led to temperature biases in the resulting short term forecasts. The forecast impact was limited in some situations however, due to composite product inaccuracies brought about by data latency during periods of long-term cloud cover. This paper focuses on the forecast impact of an enhanced MODIS/AMSR-E composite SST product designed to reduce inaccuracies due data latency in the MODIS only composite product.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Requirements for an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) for Improved Regional Weather Prediction and Monitoring of Greenhouse Gases

Hyperspectral infrared atmospheric sounders (e.g., the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on Met Op) provide highly accurate temperature and water vapor profiles in the lower to upper troposphere. These systems are vital operational components of our National Weather Prediction system and the AIRS has demonstrated over 6 hrs of forecast improvement on the 5 day operational forecast. Despite the success in the mid troposphere to lower stratosphere, a reduction in sensitivity and accuracy has been seen in these systems in the boundary layer over land. In this paper we demonstrate the potential improvement associated with higher spatial resolution (1 km vs currently 13.5 km) on the accuracy of boundary layer products with an added consequence of higher yield of cloud free scenes. This latter feature is related to the number of samples that can be assimilated and has also shown to have a significant impact on improving forecast accuracy. We also present a set of frequencies and resolutions that will improve vertical resolution of temperature and water vapor and trace gas species throughout the atmosphere. Development of an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) with these improvements will improve weather forecast at the regional scale and of tropical storms and hurricanes. Improvements are also expected in the accuracy of the water vapor and cloud properties products, enhancing process studies and providing a better match to the resolution of future climate models. The improvements of technology required for the ALS are consistent with the current state of technology as demonstrated in NASA Instrument Incubator Program and NOAA's Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES) formulation phase development programs.

temperature↗
NASA NTRS2010

Projected Applications of a "Weather in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT)'s new "Weather in a Box" resources will provide weather research and forecast modeling capabilities for real-time application. Model output will provide additional forecast guidance and research into the impacts of new NASA satellite data sets and software capabilities. By combining several research tools and satellite products, SPoRT can generate model guidance that is strongly influenced by unique NASA contributions.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Space Weathering Effects in Lunar Soils: The Roles of Surface Exposure Time and Bulk Chemical Composition

Space weathering effects on lunar soil grains result from both radiation-damaged and deposited layers on grain surfaces. Typically, solar wind irradiation forms an amorphous layer on regolith silicate grains, and induces the formation of surficial metallic Fe in Fe-bearing minerals [1,2]. Impacts into the lunar regolith generate high temperature melts and vapor. The vapor component is largely deposited on the surfaces of lunar soil grains [3] as is a fraction of the melt [4, this work]. Both the vapor-deposits and the deposited melt typically contain nanophase Fe metal particles (npFe0) as abundant inclusions. The development of these rims and the abundance of the npFe0 in lunar regolith, and thus the optical properties, vary with the soil mineralogy and the length of time the soil grains have been exposed to space weathering effects [5]. In this study, we used the density of solar flare particle tracks in soil grains to estimate exposure times for individual grains and then perform nanometer-scale characterization of the rims using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The work involved study of lunar soil samples with different mineralogy (mare vs. highland) and different exposure times (mature vs. immature).

Zhang, Shouliang↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Solar Origins of Severe Space Weather

Solar cycle 23 witnessed an unprecedented array of space- and ground-based instruments observing the violent eruptions from the Sun that had huge impact on the heliosphere. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) contribute to space weather by producing geomagnetic storms and accelerating energetic particles, the two aspects that concern the space weather community. This paper discusses the kinematic and solar-source properties of these CMEs and how they vary with the solar activity cycle with particular emphasis on the following issues. Intense geomagnetic storms are caused by the out-of-the-ecliptic component of the magnetic field in CMEs and/or their sheath. Geoeffective CMEs originate close to the disk center of the Sun. Geoeffective CMEs are more energetic (average speed approx.1000 km/s, mostly halo CMEs or partial halo CMEs). CMEs producing solar energetic particles are the fastest (average speed approx. 1600 km/s) of all CME populations and have very high halo CME fraction. The source location requirement is different for Geoeffective and SEP-producing CMEs because of the different paths taken by CME plasma and energetic particles.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗
NASA NTRS2011

Experimental Acid Weathering of Fe-Bearing Mars Analog Minerals and Rocks: Implications for Aqueous Origin of Hematite-Bearing Sediments in Meridiani Planum, Mars

A working hypothesis for Meridiani evaporite formation involves the evaporation of fluids derived from acid weathering of Martian basalts and subsequent diagenesis [1, 2]. However, there are no reported experimental studies for the formation of jarosite and gray hematite (spherules), which are characteristic of Meridiani rocks from Mars analog precursor minerals. A terrestrial analog for hematite spherule formation from basaltic rocks under acidic hydrothermal conditions has been reported [3], and we have previously shown that the hematite spherules and jarosite can be synthetically produced in the laboratory using Fe3+ -bearing sulfate brines under hydrothermal conditions [4]. Here we expand and extend these studies by reacting Mars analog minerals with sulfuric acid to form Meridiani-like rock-mineral compositions. The objective of this study is to provide environmental constraints on past aqueous weathering of basaltic materials on Mars.

Golden, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Automated Conflict Resolution, Arrival Management and Weather Avoidance for ATM

The paper describes a unified solution to three types of separation assurance problems that occur in en-route airspace: separation conflicts, arrival sequencing, and weather-cell avoidance. Algorithms for solving these problems play a key role in the design of future air traffic management systems such as NextGen. Because these problems can arise simultaneously in any combination, it is necessary to develop integrated algorithms for solving them. A unified and comprehensive solution to these problems provides the foundation for a future air traffic management system that requires a high level of automation in separation assurance. The paper describes the three algorithms developed for solving each problem and then shows how they are used sequentially to solve any combination of these problems. The first algorithm resolves loss-of-separation conflicts and is an evolution of an algorithm described in an earlier paper. The new version generates multiple resolutions for each conflict and then selects the one giving the least delay. Two new algorithms, one for sequencing and merging of arrival traffic, referred to as the Arrival Manager, and the other for weather-cell avoidance are the major focus of the paper. Because these three problems constitute a substantial fraction of the workload of en-route controllers, integrated algorithms to solve them is a basic requirement for automated separation assurance. The paper also reviews the Advanced Airspace Concept, a proposed design for a ground-based system that postulates redundant systems for separation assurance in order to achieve both high levels of safety and airspace capacity. It is proposed that automated separation assurance be introduced operationally in several steps, each step reducing controller workload further while increasing airspace capacity. A fast time simulation was used to determine performance statistics of the algorithm at up to 3 times current traffic levels.

Erzberger, H.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) is responsible for providing meteorological support to state and county emergency management agencies across East Central Florida in the event of incidents involving the significant release of harmful chemicals, radiation, and smoke from fires and/or toxic plumes into the atmosphere. NWS MLB uses the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to provide trajectory, concentration, and deposition guidance during such events. Accurate and timely guidance is critical for decision makers charged with protecting the health and well-being of populations at risk. Information that can describe the geographic extent of areas possibly affected by a hazardous release, as well as to indicate locations of primary concern, offer better opportunity for prompt and decisive action. In addition, forecasters at the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have expressed interest in using the HYSPLIT model to assist with Weather Flight Rules during Space Shuttle landing operations. In particular, SMG would provide low and mid-level HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts for cumulus clouds associated with smoke plumes, and high-level trajectory forecasts for thunderstorm anvils. Another potential benefit for both NWS MLB and SMG is using the HYSPLIT model concentration and deposition guidance in fog situations.

Dreher, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS2010

Application of Raytracing Through the High Resolution Numerical Weather Model HIRLAM for the Analysis of European VLBI

An important limitation for the precision in the results obtained by space geodetic techniques like VLBI and GPS are tropospheric delays caused by the neutral atmosphere, see e.g. [1]. In recent years numerical weather models (NWM) have been applied to improve mapping functions which are used for tropospheric delay modeling in VLBI and GPS data analyses. In this manuscript we use raytracing to calculate slant delays and apply these to the analysis of Europe VLBI data. The raytracing is performed through the limited area numerical weather prediction (NWP) model HIRLAM. The advantages of this model are high spatial (0.2 deg. x 0.2 deg.) and high temporal resolution (in prediction mode three hours).

Garcia-Espada, Susana↗
NASA NTRS2011

Validation of Space Weather Models at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multiagency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather modes. CCMC goal is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. The presentation will demonstrate the recent progress in CCMC metrics and validation activities.

Kuznetsova, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Automated Air Traffic Control Operations with Weather and Time-Constraints: A First Look at (Simulated) Far-Term Control Room Operations

In this paper we discuss results from a recent high fidelity simulation of air traffic control operations with automated separation assurance in the presence of weather and time-constraints. We report findings from a human-in-the-loop study conducted in the Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) at the NASA Ames Research Center. During four afternoons in early 2010, fifteen active and recently retired air traffic controllers and supervisors controlled high levels of traffic in a highly automated environment during three-hour long scenarios, For each scenario, twelve air traffic controllers operated eight sector positions in two air traffic control areas and were supervised by three front line managers, Controllers worked one-hour shifts, were relieved by other controllers, took a 3D-minute break, and worked another one-hour shift. On average, twice today's traffic density was simulated with more than 2200 aircraft per traffic scenario. The scenarios were designed to create peaks and valleys in traffic density, growing and decaying convective weather areas, and expose controllers to heavy and light metering conditions. This design enabled an initial look at a broad spectrum of workload, challenge, boredom, and fatigue in an otherwise uncharted territory of future operations. In this paper we report human/system integration aspects, safety and efficiency results as well as airspace throughput, workload, and operational acceptability. We conclude that, with further refinements. air traffic control operations with ground-based automated separation assurance can be an effective and acceptable means to routinely provide very high traffic throughput in the en route airspace.

Prevot, Thomas↗
NASA NTRS2011

Forecasting Safe or Dangerous Space Weather from HMI Magnetograms

We have developed a space-weather forecasting tool using an active-region free-energy proxy that was measured from MDI line-of-sight magnetograms. To develop this forecasting tool (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather Journal, in press), we used a database of 40,000 MDI magnetograms of 1300 active regions observed by MDI during the previous solar cycle (cycle 23). From each magnetogram we measured our free-energy proxy and for each active region we determined its history of major flare, CME and Solar Particle Event (SPE) production. This database determines from the value of an active region s free-energy proxy the active region s expected rate of production of 1) major flares, 2) CMEs, 3) fast CMEs, and 4) SPEs during the next few days. This tool was delivered to NASA/SRAG in 2010. With MDI observations ending, we have to be able to use HMI magnetograms instead of MDI magnetograms. One of the difficulties is that the measured value of the free-energy proxy is sensitive to the spatial resolution of the measured magnetogram: the 0.5 /pixel resolution of HMI gives a different value for the free-energy proxy than the 2 /pixels resolution of MDI. To use our MDI-database forecasting curves until a comparably large HMI database is accumulated, we smooth HMI line-of-sight magnetograms to MDI resolution, so that we can use HMI to find the value of the free-energy proxy that MDI would have measured, and then use the forecasting curves given by the MDI database. The new version for use with HMI magnetograms was delivered to NASA/SRAG (March 2011). It can also use GONG magnetograms, as a backup.

Falconer, David↗
NASA NTRS2011

Radiation Belt Environment Model: Application to Space Weather and Beyond

Understanding the dynamics and variability of the radiation belts are of great scientific and space weather significance. A physics-based Radiation Belt Environment (RBE) model has been developed to simulate and predict the radiation particle intensities. The RBE model considers the influences from the solar wind, ring current and plasmasphere. It takes into account the particle drift in realistic, time-varying magnetic and electric field, and includes diffusive effects of wave-particle interactions with various wave modes in the magnetosphere. The RBE model has been used to perform event studies and real-time prediction of energetic electron fluxes. In this talk, we will describe the RBE model equation, inputs and capabilities. Recent advancement in space weather application and artificial radiation belt study will be discussed as well.

Fok, Mei-Ching H.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Near-Real Time Data for Space Weather Analyses: Present Status and Future

Assessments of the present state and future evolution of the space environment heavily relies on timely access to appropriate environmental measurements. These, near real-time (nrt), measurements provide a direct assessment of local or remote space environment conditions, they contribute to a more global description of Space Weather parameters through assimilative models, and they provide essential input into forecasting models. Unlike meteorology, however, the provision of these data is not a mainstream activity in the sense that critical space environment data are often derived from research rather than operational sensors. In addition, space research is a relatively immature field, where SUbstantial gaps in our knowledge impede our ability to optimally use available data streams. In this presentation, we provide examples of presently employed nrt data streams and their utility. We further discuss challenges and opportunities associated with the present approach to space weather forecasting. Finally, an outlook toward the future will be presented.

Hesse, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2011

Improving Numerical Weather Predictions of Summertime Precipitation Over the Southeastern U.S. Through a High-Resolution Initialization of the Surface State

It is hypothesized that high-resolution, accurate representations of surface properties such as soil moisture and sea surface temperature are necessary to improve simulations of summertime pulse-type convective precipitation in high resolution models. This paper presents model verification results of a case study period from June-August 2008 over the Southeastern U.S. using the Weather Research and Forecasting numerical weather prediction model. Experimental simulations initialized with high-resolution land surface fields from the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and sea surface temperature (SST) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are compared to a set of control simulations initialized with interpolated fields from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 12-km North American Mesoscale model. The LIS land surface and MODIS SSTs provide a more detailed surface initialization at a resolution comparable to the 4-km model grid spacing. Soil moisture from the LIS spin-up run is shown to respond better to the extreme rainfall of Tropical Storm Fay in August 2008 over the Florida peninsula. The LIS has slightly lower errors and higher anomaly correlations in the top soil layer, but exhibits a stronger dry bias in the root zone. The model sensitivity to the alternative surface initial conditions is examined for a sample case, showing that the LIS/MODIS data substantially impact surface and boundary layer properties.

Case, Jonathan L.↗