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DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Clustering and Classification of Outage Patterns with Insights into their Links to Extreme Events

At a global level extreme events have increased in both scale and impact. These events have the potential to affect the electrical grid infrastructure and cause a wide range of outages, which can lead to a disruption in daily patterns, cost millions of dollars and also the loss of life. Currently, to track these outage events there have been various approaches developed ranging from regional to national level quantifications for what defines an outage. However, this variation in methods can potentially lead to subjective decision-making and a lack of proper management in relation to the event. While previous work has made strides in determining spatio-temporal patterns, minimal attention has been given to the type and number of outages an area may be exposed to. The differences in incurred cost and the overall severity of an event between a transformer box malfunction and a hurricane are drastic, and by finding historical signals, we can allow for more efficient management, potentially saving lives and millions of dollars. Here, we leverage unsupervised machine learning techniques to delineate outage patterns among 22 counties within the United States and find that there are clear, segregated clusters (0.93 silhouette) of data which are related by event behavior and underlying cause. This finding will allow for energy stakeholders, policy makers, and researchers to gain a deeper understanding of the extent and severity of historic events and to better prepare for electrical grid infrastructure planning and management.

Koob, Benjamin [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2023

(Invited) Fuel Cell Component Durability for Million Mile Fuel Cell Trucks

While significant advances have been made and early commercial fuel cell light-duty vehicles (LDVs) are starting to be produced, fuel cells in the heavy-duty-vehicle (HDV) transportation sector (including trucks, long-haul semitrailers, maritime, trains, etc.) are nascent, despite the fact that advantages of fuel cells compared to both diesel and electric powertrains are very compelling in terms of emissions, charging time, efficiency, power-to-weight ratio, among others. However, the fuel-cell technology for HDVs requires a paradigm shift in fuel-cell research and development compared to LDVs, where the emphasis becomes efficiency and improvements in durability instead of a focus on increased power densities and lower cell costs. Heavy-duty applications require significantly longer vehicle lifetimes (>25,000 hours/1,000,000 miles for heavy-duty trucks), and therefore require improved fuel cell durability compared to light-duty vehicles. In 2020, HFTO formed the Million Mile Fuel Cell Truck Consortium (M2FCT) that includes a core team of five national laboratories to overcome durability and efficiency challenges in PEMFCs for heavy-duty applications with an initial focus on long-haul trucks. While targets and testing protocols have been developed for light-duty vehicles, the same level of targets and testing protocols have not been established for heavy-duty transportation. With operational times of greater than > 25,000 hours required, the need for well-developed accelerated stress tests (ASTs) is amplified. Results from these ASTs demonstrate the need for more durable electrode layers and well-controlled potential variations. Finally, this presentation will provide an overview of the DOE's Fuel Cell R&D approach, highlighting past and current activities, as well as strategies to enable fuel cell competiveness for heavy-duty applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nuclear Safeguards: Feature Extraction for Machine Learning Enrichment Analysis of UF 6 Cylinders

With the increasing international interest in using nuclear material as sources of energy, comes the growing concern that we may see an increase in proliferation threats. Uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) is used in the nuclear fuel cycle for uranium enrichment. Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitor the enrichment levels of UF 6 stored in transportation cylinders, to ensure the enrichments match that of a facility operator’s declarations. However, only a characteristic subset of UF 6 cylinders can be measured by inspectors from the IAEA during these inspections. In turn, the inspector may not identify a cylinder whose enrichment levels do not match the facility declarations. Therefore, our team attempts to develop a machine learning network that could determine the enrichment percentage of cylinders as they enter and exit facilities. The machine learning model must be robust against spectral variations due to factors that are internal and external to the UF 6 cylinder. Such factors include but are not limited to the speed and distance of the moving vehicle, cylinder type, cylinder orientation, and fill level. Many features in the spectral continuum can be used to identify and correct for some of these variations. As a consequence, the model must extract numerous features in the continuum. We investigate new approaches in continuum subtraction to verify enrichment percentage: interpolation and extrapolation of lines at the notable characteristic spectral peaks. It was determined that there was no clear answer on which method proved superior, therefore the decision was made to implement both new methods into the current codebase. We currently rely on synthetic training and testing data to analyze the results and fine tune our models but hope to test the system on measured data soon.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pathway-based analyses of gene expression profiles at low doses of ionizing radiation

Radiation exposure poses a significant threat to human health. Emerging research indicates that even low-dose radiation once believed to be safe, may have harmful effects. This perception has spurred a growing interest in investigating the potential risks associated with low-dose radiation exposure across various scenarios. To comprehensively explore the health consequences of low-dose radiation, our study employs a robust statistical framework that examines whether specific groups of genes, belonging to known pathways, exhibit coordinated expression patterns that align with the radiation levels. Notably, our findings reveal the existence of intricate yet consistent signatures that reflect the molecular response to radiation exposure, distinguishing between low-dose and high-dose radiation. Moreover, we leverage a pathway-constrained variational autoencoder to capture the nonlinear interactions within gene expression data. By comparing these two analytical approaches, our study aims to gain valuable insights into the impact of low-dose radiation on gene expression patterns, identify pathways that are differentially affected, and harness the potential of machine learning to uncover hidden activity within biological networks. This comparative analysis contributes to a deeper understanding of the molecular consequences of low-dose radiation exposure.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Can strong substorm-associated MeV electron injections be an important cause of large radiation belt enhancements?

It has become well-established that strong outer radiation belt enhancements are due to wave-driven electron energization by whistler-mode chorus waves. However, in this study, we examine strong MeV electron injections on 10 July 2019 and find substantial evidence that such injections may be a crucial contributor to outer radiation belt enhancement events. For such an examination, it is essential to precisely separate temporal flux changes from spatial variations observed as Van Allen Probes move along their orbits. Employing a new “hourly snapshot” analysis approach, we discover unprecedented details of electron flux evolutions that suggest that for this event, the outer belt enhancement was not continuous but instead intermittent, mostly composed of 4 large discrete injection-driven flux increases. The injections appear as sharp flux increases when observed near apogee. Otherwise, by comparing hourly snapshots for different times, we infer injections and infer temporally stable fluxes between injections, despite strong and continuous chorus emission. The fast and intermittent electron flux growth successively extending earthwards implies cumulative outer belt enhancement via a series of repetitive inward transport associated with injection-induced electric fields.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1969

Development of an Advanced Annular Combustor

The objective of the effort described in this report was to determine the structural durability of a full-scale advanced annular turbojet combustor using ASTM A-1 type fuel and operating at conditions typical of advanced supersonic aircraft. A full-scale annular combustor of the ram-induction type was fabricated and subjected to a 325-hour cyclic endurance test at conditions representative of operation in a Mach 3.0 aircraft. The combustor exhibited extensive cracking and scoop burning at the end of the test program. But these defects had no appreciable effect on combustor performance, as performance remained at a high level throughout the endurance program. Most performance goals were achieved with pressure loss values near 6% and 8%, and temperature rise variation ratio (deltaTVR) values near 1.25 and l.22 at takeoff and cruise conditions, respectively. Combustion efficiencies approached l004 and the exit radial temperature profiles were approximately as desired.

Rusnak, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Synthesis and dynamic characteristics of large structures with rotating substructures

The variational equations of motion of large structures with rotating substructures are derived by the substructure synthesis approach, whereby a discretization procedure akin to the Rayleigh-Ritz method is used to represent the elastic motion of every substructure by a suitable set of admissible functions. Using an inclusion principle for gyroscopic systems, the effects on the predicted system dynamic characteristics of truncating the number of admissible functions used for each substructure can be assessed. Criteria for rational selection of admissible functions are presented.

Meirovitch, L.↗

NASA NTRS1979

High temperature thermal energy storage in steel and sand

The technical and economic potential for high temperature (343 C, 650 F) thermal energy storage in hollow steel ingots, pipes embedded in concrete, and for pipes buried in sand was evaluated. Because it was determined that concrete would separate from pipes due to thermal stresses, concrete was replaced by sand, which is free from thermal stresses. Variations of the steel ingot concept were not cost effective compared to the sand-pipe approach, therefore, the sand-pipe thermal storage unit (TSU) was evaluated in depth to assess the approximate tube spacing requirements consistent with different system performance characteristics and also attendant system costs. For large TSUs which do not require fast response times, the sand-pipe approach offers attractive possibilities. A pipe diameter about 9 cm (3.5 in) and pipe spacing of approximately 25 cm (10 in), with sand filling the interspaces, appears appropriate. Such a TSU system designed for 8 hours charge/discharge cycle has an energy unit storage cost (CE) of $2.63/kWhr-t and a power unit storage cost (Cp) of $42/kW-t (in 1977 dollars).

Turner, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Daylight imagery of ocean surface waves for wave spectra

A simple second-order model is developed to describe the transformation between surface wave slope and radiance incident on an optical sensor. The model includes azimuth as well as elevation variations in the sky-radiance distribution and their effects on the imaging of wave slopes approaching the sensor azimuth from various directions. The model also includes upwelling radiance. Comparison between the exact transformation from wave slope to radiance and the second-order model suggests that they yield quantitatively similar results. The model is used in physical interpretations of how wave slopes are imaged and in indicating a way of optimizing the linearity and contrast of the transfer function relating wave slope to radiance for various sensor geometries, thereby minimizing sources of error. One-dimensional numerical simulations of the imaging of an analytically generated wave-slope profile demonstrate the utility of this technique in obtaining slope spectra.

Monaldo, F. M.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Models of the structure of the atmosphere of Venus from the surface to 100 kilometers altitude

From a critical comparison and synthesis of data from the four Pioneer Venus Probes, the Pioneer Venus Orbiter, and the Venera 10, 12, and 13 landers, models of the lower and middle atmosphere of Venus are derived. The models are consistent with the data sets within the measurement uncertainties and established variability of the atmosphere. The models represent the observed variations of state properties with latitude, and preserve the observed static stability. The rationale and the approach used to derive the models are discussed, and the remaining uncertainties are estimated.

Seiff, A.↗

NASA NTRS1988

A Design Study of Onboard Navigation and Guidance During Aerocapture at Mars

The navigation and guidance of a high lift-to-drag ratio sample return vehicle during aerocapture at Mars are investigated. Emphasis is placed on integrated systems design, with guidance algorithm synthesis and analysis based on vehicle state and atmospheric density uncertainty estimates provided by the navigation system. The latter utilizes a Kalman filter for state vector estimation, with useful update information obtained through radar altimeter measurements and density altitude measurements based on IMU-measured drag acceleration. A three-phase guidance algorithm, featuring constant bank numeric predictor/corrector atmospheric capture and exit phases and an extended constant altitude cruise phase, is developed to provide controlled capture and depletion of orbital energy, orbital plane control, and exit apoapsis control. Integrated navigation and guidance systems performance are analyzed using a four degree-of-freedom computer simulation. The simulation environment includes an atmospheric density model with spatially correlated perturbations to provide realistic variations over the vehicle trajectory. Navigation filter initial conditions for the analysis are based on planetary approach optical navigation results. Results from a selection of test cases are presented to give insight into systems performance.

Fuhry, Douglas Paul↗

NASA NTRS1988

Static multipole polarisabilities and second-order Stark shift in francium

The multipole polarizability of the ground state of francium is calculated by utilizing both the variational technique of Davison and the quantum defect theory underlying the Bates-Damgaard method. This approach is also shown to yield reasonable results for other alkali atoms. Second-order Stark shift for the ground state of francium is presented as a function of field strength for possible future experimental comparison.

Khan, F.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Assimilation of satellite surface wind speed data using the GLA analysis/forecast system

Research at the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres to evaluate methods to assign directions to both real and simulated surface wind speed data is discussed. Surface wind speed measurements are obtained from satellites, including Seasat, Nimbus-7, and Geosat. The methods include the interpolation of modeled forecast winds to the wind speed datum location, the use of surface pressures with a balance relation, and a variational analysis method. It is found that the best estimates may be obtained using a multipass approach to perform a surface analysis incorporating all conventional surface data.

Bloom, S. C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Eigenvalue sensitivity analysis of planar frames with variable joint and support locations

Two sensitivity equations are derived in this study based upon the continuum approach for eigenvalue sensitivity analysis of planar frame structures with variable joint and support locations. A variational form of an eigenvalue equation is first derived in which all of the quantities are expressed in the local coordinate system attached to each member. Material derivative of this variational equation is then sought to account for changes in member's length and orientation resulting form the perturbation of joint and support locations. Finally, eigenvalue sensitivity equations are formulated in either domain quantities (by the domain method) or boundary quantities (by the boundary method). It is concluded that the sensitivity equation derived by the boundary method is more efficient in computation but less accurate than that of the domain method. Nevertheless, both of them in terms of computational efficiency are superior to the conventional direct differentiation method and the finite difference method.

Chuang, Ching H.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Using experimental modal data to detect damage in a space truss

The effects of damage on a model space truss are investigated using experimentally measured modes along with a procedure that uses the vibratory residual forces and a weighted sensitivity analysis to estimate the extent of mass and/or stiffness variations, where damage is characterized as a reduction in structural stiffness. It is shown that this approach yields excellent results for a four-bay space truss under consideration and was able to accurately predict not only the location of the damage region but also estimate the relative severity for three different configurations. In addition, the method was able to accurately detect and differentiate a shift in structural mass.

Tavares, R.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Unified approach for incompressible flows

A unified approach for solving incompressible flows has been investigated in this study. The numerical CTVD (Centered Total Variation Diminishing) scheme used in this study was successfully developed by Sanders and Li for compressible flows, especially for the high speed. The CTVD scheme possesses better mathematical properties to damp out the spurious oscillations while providing high-order accuracy for high speed flows. It leads us to believe that the CTVD scheme can equally well apply to solve incompressible flows. Because of the mathematical difference between the governing equations for incompressible and compressible flows, the scheme can not directly apply to the incompressible flows. However, if one can modify the continuity equation for incompressible flows by introducing pseudo-compressibility, the governing equations for incompressible flows would have the same mathematical characters as compressible flows. The application of the algorithm to incompressible flows thus becomes feasible. In this study, the governing equations for incompressible flows comprise continuity equation and momentum equations. The continuity equation is modified by adding a time-derivative of the pressure term containing the artificial compressibility. The modified continuity equation together with the unsteady momentum equations forms a hyperbolic-parabolic type of time-dependent system of equations. Thus, the CTVD schemes can be implemented. In addition, the physical and numerical boundary conditions are properly implemented by the characteristic boundary conditions. Accordingly, a CFD code has been developed for this research and is currently under testing. Flow past a circular cylinder was chosen for numerical experiments to determine the accuracy and efficiency of the code. The code has shown some promising results.

Chang, Tyne-Hsien↗

NASA NTRS1994

On the Interaction of CO and NH3 with BH3 and BF3

BH3CO, BF3CO, BH3NH3, and BF3NH3 have been studied using density functional theory (DFT). The computed geometries are in reasonable agreement with experiment. BF3CO is found to be weakly bound. The binding energies of BH3CO, BH3NH3 , and BF3NH3 have also been computed using the coupled cluster singles and doubles level of theory, including a perturbational estimate of the connected triples [CCSD(T)]. These CCSD(T) calculations are performed using correlation consistent polarized-valence triple-zeta basis sets. These are expected to be the most accurate binding energies to date. The DFT binding energies are in good agreement with those obtained at the CCSD(T) level. The bonding is analyzed using the constrained space orbital variation (CSOV) technique. In addition to analyzing the bonding in BH3CO, BH3NH3, and BF3NH3, the CSOV approach is used to study why the bonding in BF3CO is so weak.

Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2000

NASA/ARMY/BELL XV-15 Tiltrotor Low Noise Terminal Area Operations Flight Research Program

A series of three XV-15 acoustic flight tests have been conducted over a five year period by a NASA/Army/Bell Helicopter team to evaluate the noise reduction potential for tiltrotor aircraft during terminal area operations. Lower hemispherical noise characteristics for a wide range of steady-state terminal area type operating conditions were measured during the phase 1 test and indicated that the takeoff and level flight conditions were not significant contributors to the total noise of tiltrotor operations. Phase 1 results were used to design low noise approach profiles that were tested during the phase 2 and phase 3 tests, which used large area microphone arrays to directly measure the ground noise footprints. Approach profile designs emphasized noise reduction while maintaining handling qualities sufficient for tiltrotor commercial passenger ride comfort and flight safety under Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) conditions. This paper will discuss the weather, aircraft, tracking, guidance, and acoustic instrumentation systems, as well as the approach profile design philosophy, and the overall test program philosophy. Acoustic results are presented documenting the variation in tiltrotor noise due to changes in operating condition, indicating the potential for significant noise reduction using the unique tiltrotor capability of nacelle tilt.

Conner, David A.↗