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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,189 records · Page 66
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Uncertainties in the Anthropogenic SO 2 Emissions in the USA from the OMI Point Source Catalog

Satellite remote sensing is a promising method of monitoring emissions that may be missing in inventories, but the accuracy of these estimates is often not clear. We demonstrate here a comprehensive evaluation of errors in anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emission estimates from NASA’s OMI point source catalog for the contiguous US by comparing emissions from the catalog with high-quality emission inventory data over different dimensions including size of individual sources, aggregate vs individual source errors, and potential bias in individual source estimates over time. For sources that are included in the catalog, we find that errors in aggregate (sum of error for all included sources) are relatively low. Errors for individual sources in any given year can be substantial, however, with over- or underestimates in terms of total error ranging from –80 to 110 kt (roughly 10–90th percentile). In this study, we find that these errors are not necessarily random over time and that there can be consistently positive or negative biases for individual sources. We did not find any overall statistical relationship between the degree of isolation of a source and bias, either at a 40 or 70 km scales. For a sub-set of sources where inventory emissions over a radius of 70 km around an OMI detection are larger than twice the emissions within 40 km, the OMI value is consistently overestimated. We find, as expected, that emission sources not included in the catalog are the largest aggregate source of difference between the satellite estimates and inventories, especially in more recent years where source emission magnitudes have been decreasing and note that trends in satellite detections do not necessarily track trends in total emissions. We find that the OMI-based SO 2 emissions are accurate in aggregate, when summed over a number of sources, but must be interpreted more cautiously at the individual source level. Similar analyses would be valuable for other satellite emission estimates; however, in many cases, the appropriate high-quality reference data may need to be generated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying uncertainty in high-throughput density functional theory: A comparison of AFLOW, Materials Project, and OQMD

A central challenge in high-throughput density functional theory (HT-DFT) calculations is selecting a combination of input parameters and postprocessing techniques that can be used across all materials classes, while also managing accuracy-cost tradeoffs. To investigate the effects of these parameter choices, we consolidate three large HT-DFT databases: Automatic-FLOW (AFLOW), the Materials Project (MP), and the Open Quantum Materials Database (OQMD), and compare reported properties across each pair of databases for materials calculated using the same initial crystal structure. We find that HT-DFT formation energies and volumes are generally more reproducible than band gaps and total magnetizations; for instance, a notable fraction of records disagree on whether a material is metallic (up to 7%) or magnetic (up to 15%). The variance between calculated properties is as high as 0.105 eV/atom (median relative absolute difference, or MRAD, of 6%) for formation energy, 0.65 Å 3 / atom (MRAD of 4%) for volume, 0.21 eV (MRAD of 9%) for band gap, and 0.15 μB/ formula unit (MRAD of 8%) for total magnetization, comparable to the differences between DFT and experiment. Here, we trace some of the larger discrepancies to choices involving pseudopotentials, the DFT + U formalism, and elemental reference states, and argue that further standardization of HT-DFT would be beneficial to reproducibility.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Time-Energy Uncertainty Relation for Noisy Quantum Metrology

Detection of very weak forces and precise measurement of time are two of the many applications of quantum metrology to science and technology. To sense an unknown physical parameter, one prepares an initial state of a probe system, allows the probe to evolve as governed by a Hamiltonian 𝐻 for some time 𝑡, and then measures the probe. If 𝐻 is known, we can estimate 𝑡 by this method; if 𝑡 is known, we can estimate classical parameters on which 𝐻 depends. The accuracy of a quantum sensor can be limited by either intrinsic quantum noise or by noise arising from the interactions of the probe with its environment. In this work, we introduce and study a fundamental trade-off, which relates the amount by which noise reduces the accuracy of a quantum clock to the amount of information about the energy of the clock that leaks to the environment. Specifically, we consider an idealized scenario in which a party Alice prepares an initial pure state of the clock, allows the clock to evolve for a time that is not precisely known, and then transmits the clock through a noisy channel to a party Bob. Meanwhile, the environment (Eve) receives any information about the clock that is lost during transmission. We prove that Bob’s loss of quantum Fisher information about the elapsed time is equal to Eve’s gain of quantum Fisher information about a complementary energy parameter. We also prove a similar, but more general, trade-off that applies when Bob and Eve wish to estimate the values of parameters associated with two noncommuting observables. We derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for the accuracy of the clock to be unaffected by the noise, which form a subset of the Knill-Laflamme error-correction conditions. A state and its local time-evolution direction, if they satisfy these conditions, are said to form a metrological code. We provide a scheme to construct metrological codes in the stabilizer formalism. We show that there are metrological codes that cannot be written as a quantum error-correcting code with similar distance in which the Hamiltonian acts as a logical operator, potentially offering new schemes for constructing states that do not lose any sensitivity upon application of a noisy channel. We discuss applications of the trade-off relation to sensing using a quantum many-body probe subject to erasure or amplitude-damping noise.

metrology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electric Grid Reliability in an Era of Unprecedented Uncertainty: A Review of Advances in Electric Sector Resource Adequacy Assessment and Planning

Recent changes to the principal causes of energy shortage events on the electric grid have necessitated are thinking of paradigms for resource adequacy (RA) assessment and the related topic of procurement of a reliable portfolio. Prior studies have laid out elements of a modern paradigm for these planning activities, but there does not exist a comprehensive overview of the topic spanning academic and gray literature, and the relationship of these suggested paradigms to methods used in industry has also not been surveyed. In this paper we review recent literature establishing best practices for RA assessment and reliable portfolio procurement, and survey current practices used in industry in relation to these best practices. We establish seven key best practices for RA assessment, cover a modern methodology for capacity accreditation, and find that industry practices are not far behind the identified best practices, though some key gaps remain. We also present a suggested agenda for both academic research on the topic and opportunities for advancement in the industry.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extension of Complex Refractive Index Measurements to the Near-Infrared for Liquids: Methodology and Uncertainty Analysis

Optical identification of liquid droplets, aerosols, or thin films is important for many applications. While reference spectra are sometimes available for such measurements, they are not always applicable to the observed spectrum or the given sample morphology. Reference spectra for many forms can be modeled, however, if the n/k vectors (real and imaginary refractive indices) are available. In previous work we have reported protocols to determine the n/k vectors for dozens of liquids, primarily in the mid-infrared (MIR) spectral range from 7500 to 400 cm –1 . In this work we extend the spectral range into the near-infrared (NIR) region, demonstrating a method to measure and merge the data sets to create composite n/k data ranging from 10 000 to 400 cm –1 (1.0 to 25 µm) with absorbance fidelity spanning over four orders of magnitude, and vastly improved signal-to-noise in the NIR. The precision of the composite data is evaluated for three different liquids, focusing primarily on the steps for converting the raw absorbance spectra to k values. The variability in both MIR and NIR data as well as in the final n/k vectors is also investigated for several liquids. For typical liquids, the overall variability (reported as 2σ) in the final n and k-vectors is determined to be ∼0.4% and 3%, respectively. Finally, the derived n/k data are used to calculate absorbance spectra for aerosol droplets, showing marginal variability due to the typical measurement errors in the final n/k vectors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Equation of State Optimization and Uncertainty Quantization: Implementation in the LANL EOS Production Code OpenSesame

We detail the approaches of particle swarm optimization and Bayesian inference through Markov chain Monte Carlo for equation of state development. This work includes formulation of the modeling for the equation of state, numeric optimization of the parametric models via particle swarm optimization, and generation of probability distributions of equations of state from Markov chain Monte Carlo.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Solar data uncertainty impacts on MCMC methods for r-process nucleosynthesis

In recent work, we developed a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure to predict the ground state masses capable of forming the observed Solar r-process rare-earth abundance peak. By applying this method to nucleosynthesis calculations which make use of distinct astrophysical conditions and comparing our results to the latest precision mass measurements, we are able to shed light on the conditions/masses capable of producing a rare-earth peak which matches Solar data. Here we examine how our mass predictions change when using a few different sets of r-process Solar abundance residuals that have been reported in the literature. We explore how the differing error estimates of these Solar evaluations propagate through the Markov Chain Monte Carlo to our mass predictions. We find that Solar data which reports the rare-earth peak to have its highest abundance at mass number A = 162 can require distinctly different mass predictions from data with the peak centered at A = 164. Nevertheless, we find that two important general conclusions from past work, regarding the inconsistency of ‘cold’ astrophysical outflows with current mass measurements and the need for local stability at N = 104 in ‘hot’ scenarios, remain robust in the face of differing Solar data evaluations. Additionally, we show that the masses our procedure finds capable of producing a peak at A < 164 are not in line with the latest precision mass measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗