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NASA NTRS1975

A study to define an in-flight dynamics measurement and data applications program for space shuttle payloads

Data measurement and interpretation techniques were defined for application to the first few space shuttle flights, so that the dynamic environment could be sufficiently well established to be used to reduce the cost of future payloads through more efficient design and environmental test techniques. It was concluded that: (1) initial payloads must be given comprehensive instrumentation coverage to obtain detailed definition of acoustics, vibration, and interface loads, (2) analytical models of selected initial payloads must be developed and verified by modal surveys and flight measurements, (3) acoustic tests should be performed on initial payloads to establish realistic test criteria for components and experiments in order to minimize unrealistic failures and retest requirements, (4) permanent data banks should be set up to establish statistical confidence in the data to be used, (5) a more unified design/test specification philosophy is needed, (6) additional work is needed to establish a practical testing technique for simulation of vehicle transients.

Rader, W. P.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Study of on-board compression of earth resources data

The current literature on image bandwidth compression was surveyed and those methods relevant to compression of multispectral imagery were selected. Typical satellite multispectral data was then analyzed statistically and the results used to select a smaller set of candidate bandwidth compression techniques particularly relevant to earth resources data. These were compared using both theoretical analysis and simulation, under various criteria of optimality such as mean square error (MSE), signal-to-noise ratio, classification accuracy, and computational complexity. By concatenating some of the most promising techniques, three multispectral data compression systems were synthesized which appear well suited to current and future NASA earth resources applications. The performance of these three recommended systems was then examined in detail by all of the above criteria. Finally, merits and deficiencies were summarized and a number of recommendations for future NASA activities in data compression proposed.

Habibi, A.↗

NASA NTRS1976

General purpose simulation system of the data management system for Space Shuttle mission 18

A simulation program for the flow of data through the Data Management System of Spacelab and Space Shuttle was presented. The science, engineering, command and guidance, navigation and control data were included. The programming language used was General Purpose Simulation System V (OS). The science and engineering data flow was modeled from its origin at the experiments and subsystems to transmission from Space Shuttle. Command data flow was modeled from the point of reception onboard and from the CDMS Control Panel to the experiments and subsystems. The GN&C data flow model handled data between the General Purpose Computer and the experiments and subsystems. Mission 18 was the particular flight chosen for simulation. The general structure of the program is presented, followed by a user's manual. Input data required to make runs are discussed followed by identification of the output statistics. The appendices contain a detailed model configuration, program listing and results.

Bengtson, N. M.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The stochastic evolution of asteroidal regoliths and the origin of brecciated and gas-rich meteorites

A model is constructed which views regolith evolution on asteroids as a stochastic process. Average values are shown to be poor descriptors of regolith depth. The utility of the average depth is not significantly increased by avoiding large craters or thick ejecta deposits, a procedure adopted in previous regolith studies. The statistical uncertainty associated with regolith depth severely limits the power of regolith models in predicting parent-body size for brecciated meteorites. A Monte Carlo algorithm was used to simulate the random walks and corresponding charged-particle irradiation histories of grains in regoliths. On rocky asteroids, only about 20 percent of the grains was exposed to solar cosmic ray ions. Results based on present-day conditions in the asteroid belt agree well with irradiation features observed in gas-rich meteorites. An origin during epochs of early solar system evolution is not required.

Housen, K. R.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Sensitivity analysis of helicopter IMC decelerating steep approach and landing performance to navigation system parameters

Results of a study to investigate, by means of a computer simulation, the performance sensitivity of helicopter IMC DSAL operations as a function of navigation system parameters are presented. A mathematical model representing generically a navigation system is formulated. The scenario simulated consists of a straight in helicopter approach to landing along a 6 deg glideslope. The deceleration magnitude chosen is 03g. The navigation model parameters are varied and the statistics of the total system errors (TSE) computed. These statistics are used to determine the critical navigation system parameters that affect the performance of the closed-loop navigation, guidance and control system of a UH-1H helicopter.

Karmali, M. S.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Semikinetic modeling and observations of high-latitude plasma outflow

In one fo the most exciting areas of progress, we have now developed a dynamic semikinetic model for examining the synergistic effects of waves and magnetospheric hot plasma populations on the outflowing ionospheric plasma. We have done this by imposing hot biMaxwellian ion and electron distributions at the top of our auroral simulation flux tube (4 R(sub e)), as well as a spectrum of waves with altitude which perpendicularly heats the ionospheric ions. We have also addressed the quasi-statistical properties of out flowing O(+) through bulk parameter analysis of DE-1/RIMS observations when DE-1 was in the midaltitude polar cap magnetosphere. A very exciting paper which was both submitted and appeared during this period in JGR concerned the centrifugal acceleration effect on the polar wind. During this year, we also developed the extension of our GSK code to include the lower ionosphere and associated processes. Finally, perhaps our most exciting project currently is a study of F-region upflows using a modification of the FLIP ionospheric fluid dynamics model of Richards and Torr to allow for the effects of soft electron precipitation ionization and convection-driven ion heating, and performed comparisons with satellite and radar data. A list of reference papers that have been published is listed.

Horwitz, James L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Procedure for Adapting Direct Simulation Monte Carlo Meshes

A technique is presented for adapting computational meshes used in the G2 version of the direct simulation Monte Carlo method. The physical ideas underlying the technique are discussed, and adaptation formulas are developed for use on solutions generated from an initial mesh. The effect of statistical scatter on adaptation is addressed, and results demonstrate the ability of this technique to achieve more accurate results without increasing necessary computational resources.

Woronowicz, Michael S.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The Area Coverage of Geophysical Fields as a Function of Sensor Field-of View

In many remote sensing studies of geophysical fields such as clouds, land cover, or sea ice characteristics, the fractional area coverage of the field in an image is estimated as the proportion of pixels that have the characteristic of interest (i.e., are part of the field) as determined by some thresholding operation. The effect of sensor field-of-view on this estimate is examined by modeling the unknown distribution of subpixel area fraction with the beta distribution, whose two parameters depend upon the true fractional area coverage, the pixel size, and the spatial structure of the geophysical field. Since it is often not possible to relate digital number, reflectance, or temperature to subpixel area fraction, the statistical models described are used to determine the effect of pixel size and thresholding operations on the estimate of area fraction for hypothetical geophysical fields. Examples are given for simulated cumuliform clouds and linear openings in sea ice, whose spatial structures are described by an exponential autocovariance function. It is shown that the rate and direction of change in total area fraction with changing pixel size depends on the true area fraction, the spatial structure, and the thresholding operation used.

Key, Jeffrey R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Studies on Aerosol Transport, Its Deposition, and Its Impact on Climate - the Study on the Surface Material Circulation can Connect from the Past to the Future

Recently the issue on glacier retreats comes up and many factors should be relevant to the issue. The absorbing aerosols such as dust and black carbon (BC) are considered to be one of the factors. After they deposited onto the snow surface, it will reduce snow albedo (called snow darkening effect) and probably contribute to further melting of glacier. The Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) has developed at NASAlGSFC. However, the original snowpack model used in the land surface model in the GEOS-5 did not consider the snow darkening effect. Here we developed the new snow albedo scheme which can consider the snow darkening effect. In addition, another scheme on calculating mass concentrations on the absorbing aerosols in snowpack was also developed, in which the direct aerosol depositions from the chemical transport model in the GEOS-5 were used. The scheme has been validated with the observed data obtained at backyard of the Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, by Dr. Teruo Aoki (Meteorological Research Institute) et al. including me. The observed data was obtained when I was Ph.D. candidate. The original GEOS-5 during 2007-2009 over the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau region showed more reductions of snow than that of the new GEOS-5 because the original one used lower albedo settings. On snow cover fraction, the new GEOS-5 simulated more realistic snow-covered area comparing to the MODIS snow cover fraction. The reductions on snow albedo, snow cover fraction, and snow water equivalent were seen with statistically significance if we consider the snow darkening effect comparing to the results without the snow darkening effect. In the real world, debris-cover, inside refreezing process, surface flow of lacier, etc. affect glacier mass balance and the simu.latedresults immediately do not affect whole glacier retreating. However, our results indicate that some surface melting over non debris-covered parts of the glacier would be explained by the snow darkening effect. Further discussion and observations are necessary to assess the glacier issue.

Yasunari, Teppei↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Complementary Note to 'A Lag-1 Smoother Approach to System-Error Estimation': The Intrinsic Limitations of Residual Diagnostics

Recently, this author studied an approach to the estimation of system error based on combining observation residuals derived from a sequential filter and fixed lag-1 smoother. While extending the methodology to a variational formulation, experimenting with simple models and making sure consistency was found between the sequential and variational formulations, the limitations of the residual-based approach came clearly to the surface. This note uses the sequential assimilation application to simple nonlinear dynamics to highlight the issue. Only when some of the underlying error statistics are assumed known is it possible to estimate the unknown component. In general, when considerable uncertainties exist in the underlying statistics as a whole, attempts to obtain separate estimates of the various error covariances are bound to lead to misrepresentation of errors. The conclusions are particularly relevant to present-day attempts to estimate observation-error correlations from observation residual statistics. A brief illustration of the issue is also provided by comparing estimates of error correlations derived from a quasi-operational assimilation system and a corresponding Observing System Simulation Experiments framework.

Fixed-lag smoothing↗

NASA NTRS2018

Recent Developments to the Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) Software

The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software is a suite of tools for the analysis of porous materials and generation of material microstructures. From microstructural data, often obtained through X-ray microtomography, PuMA can determine a number of effective material properties and perform material response simulations. Version 2.2 includes capabilities for computing volume fractions, porosity, specific surface area, effective thermal and electrical conductivities, and continuum and rarefied diffusive tortuosity. PuMA can also simulate competitive diffusion/reaction processes at the micro-scale, such as surface oxidation. In this poster, recent advancements to the PuMA software are detailed, including the full refactoring of PuMA into v3.0, a new module to compute heat conduction in anisotropic materials, a particle method for simulating molecular beam experiments, a new finite-volume Laplace solver, complex fibrous material generation, woven material generation, and a coupling of PuMA with the DAKOTA software for advanced statistics.

PuMA↗

NASA NTRS2020

Multi Model Monte Carlo with Python (MXMCPy)

Multi Model Monte Carlo with Python (\mxmc {}) is a software package developed as a general capability for computing the statistics of outputs from an expensive, high-fidelity model by leveraging faster, low-fidelity models for speedup. Motivated by uncertainty propagation problems where classical Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is computationally intractable, various multi-model MC approaches have recently emerged that yield unbiased estimators with significantly reduced variance relative to MC for the same cost. These existing methods include multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC), multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC), and approximate control variates (ACV). Given a fixed computational budget and a collection of models with varying cost/accuracy, each method seeks a sample allocation strategy across the models that results in an estimator with optimal variance reduction. \mxmc {} is a versatile tool that enables convenient access to many existing multi-model MC approaches within one modular and extensible package. With \mxmc {}, users can easily compare existing methods to determine the best choice for their particular problem, while developers have a basis for implementing and sharing new variance reduction approaches. This report introduces the \mxmc {} software, providing a summary of the problem-solving workflow for users as well as a brief overview of the code layout for developers.

Geoffrey F Bomarito↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Scale resolving simulations of the NASA Juncture Flow Model using the LAVA solver

Two distinct simulation methodologies: Delayed Detached Eddy Simulation (DDES) and stress based Wall-modelled Large Eddy Simulation (WMLES) are evaluated using structured overset curvilinear grids for the NASA juncture flow model. While both methodologies are shown to mitigate the primary shortcomings of steady state Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes(RANS) simulations, several unresolved aspects are identified. Strong sensitivity to RANS-typegrid refinement is observed in the DDES with a substantial deterioration of the solution quality with increasing spatial resolution associated with deficiencies in the shielding function. Mean profiles for attached boundary layers on the fuselage show spurious inflections suggesting modelled stress depletion on finer grids. Lower numerical dissipation in terms of spatial discretization and time step size is seen to improve the solution quality, and the advantage of using RC and QCR2000 corrections in the underlying RANS closure is demonstrated for DDES on RANS-type meshes. Equilibrium Wall-Modelled LES used grids that resolved the tripping dots over the fuselage nose and the wing leading edge, consistent with the experiment setup. These simulations resulted in a cost-competitive approach compared to DDES on RANS-type grids. Although the agreement between WMLES predictions of first and second order single point statistics with experimental measurements is promising, a fundamental shortcoming is noted in terms of an overshoot in streamwise momentum in corner regions of the wing-fuselage juncture. This excess momentum subsequently delays the onset of separation,thereby resulting in an underprediction in length of the separation bubble. Some quantitative sensitivity to numerical discretization is observed; lowering of numerical dissipation shows better agreement with the experiment.

T^3↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Examination of L-Band Brightness Temperature Forecasts in the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Analysis

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission [4] has been providing L-band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave brightness temperature (Tb) observations since April 2015. By assimilating the Tb observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model [5] using a spatially distributed ensemble Kalman filter, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office generates the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product, which provides global, 3-hourly, 9-km resolution estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture with ~2.5-day latency for use in research and applications [6]. The L4_SM product also includes estimates of soil temperature, land surface fluxes, and assimilation diagnostics such as the model forecast and observed Tb values [7]. The output from the L4_SM system is routinely monitored by the L4_SM team. Such monitoring provides valuable information; instances of unusually large Tb observation-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals can indicate events during which soil moisture conditions are poorly described in the land modeling system [7,8]. For example, repeated occurrences of very large Tb O-F values in central Australia were traced back to deficiencies in the gauge-based precipitation product used in the land modeling system through L4_SM Version 5; this discovery prompted the use, beginning in Version 6, of satellite- and gauge-based precipitation observations outside of North America [9]. Recently, a statistical analysis of the Tb O-F residuals revealed systematic errors in the “tau-omega” L-band radiative transfer model that converts the land-model simulated soil moisture and temperature into the forecast Tb prior to the L4_SM analysis. The L4_SM analysis is built on the ensemble Kalman filter and assumes unbiased forecast errors. The presence of systematic Tb forecast errors could thus adversely impact the quality of the analyzed soil moisture. In this paper, we examine the Tb O-F residuals of the latest Version 7 L4_SM data (Science Version ID Vv7030 and Vv7032) [10,11,12]. In the L4_SM Version 7 algorithm, key parameters of the L-band radiative transfer model, including soil roughness, scattering albedo, and a (seasonally varying) climatology of vegetation opacity, are obtained from the SMAP Level-2 Radiometer retrieval product (Version 5) [1]. Additionally, we also use ground measurements of surface soil moisture and soil temperature from the SMAP core validation sites as in situ reference of soil conditions [2,3]. As part of the L4_SM system calibration, the seasonally-varying bias between the model forecast Tb and the observed values is removed prior to the assimilation of the SMAP Tb observations [7]. That is, the L4_SM system is designed to only correct errors in synoptic-scale and interannual variations from the long-term mean seasonal cycle while maintaining the model’s (potentially erroneous) climatology. The Tb O-F residuals examined here are thus computed using SMAP Tb observations after they are rescaled to the mean seasonal cycle of Tb from the modeling system without SMAP data assimilation. Consequently, the long-term average of the Tb O-F residuals has a global mean of only 0.13 K and locally small values, ranging from -1 to 3 K. Despite the small time-average values of the Tb O-F residuals, the model forecast Tb was nevertheless found to exhibit undesirable systematic errors. At some locations, the time-average Tb O-F values strongly depend on surface soil moisture (SM). At the Yanco SMAP core validation site, for example, the Tb O-F residuals typically range from 5 to 15 K under dry soil moisture conditions (SM < 0.15 m3 m-3) yet are predominantly negative under wet soil moisture conditions (SM > 0.25 m3 m-3), with values ranging from 0 to -40 K. This results in soil moisture analysis increments that persistently make the soil drier under dry SM conditions and persistently make the soil wetter under wet SM conditions, suggesting an error in the dynamic range of the simulated Tb, soil moisture or soil temperature. In this paper, we describe the higher-order systematic Tb forecast errors in more detail, examine their impact on the L4_SM product quality, and explore potential avenues to further improve the L4_SM algorithm.

Rolf Reichle↗

NASA NTRS2023

Comment on “Advanced Testing of Low, Medium, and High ECS CMIP6 GCM Simulations Versus ERA5-T2m” by N. Scafetta (2022)

Scafetta (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl097716) purports to test Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models through a comparison of temperature changes over three decades. Unfortunately, the paper contains numerous conceptual and statistical errors that undermine all of the conclusions. First, no uncertainty is given for the observational temperature difference, making it impossible to assess compatibility with any model result. Second, the CMIP6 data are the ensemble means for each model, but the metric being tested is sensitive to the internal variability and so the full ensemble for each model must be used. When this is corrected, the conclusion that “all models with ECS > 3.0°C overestimate the observed global surface warming” is not sustained. Third, the statistical test in Section 2 would reject all models even in a perfect model setup given sufficient ensemble members, thus the second conclusion “that spatial t-statistics rejects the data-model agreement” is also not sustainable.

CMIP6↗

NASA NTRS2010

Roles of Engineering Correlations in Hypersonic Entry Boundary Layer Transition Prediction

Efforts to design and operate hypersonic entry vehicles are constrained by many considerations that involve all aspects of an entry vehicle system. One of the more significant physical phenomenon that affect entry trajectory and thermal protection system design is the occurrence of boundary layer transition from a laminar to turbulent state. During the Space Shuttle Return To Flight activity following the loss of Columbia and her crew of seven, NASA's entry aerothermodynamics community implemented an engineering correlation based framework for the prediction of boundary layer transition on the Orbiter. The methodology for this implementation relies upon the framework of correlation techniques that have been in use for several decades. What makes the Orbiter boundary layer transition correlation implementation unique is that a statistically significant data set was acquired in multiple ground test facilities, flight data exists to assist in establishing a better correlation and the framework was founded upon state of the art chemical nonequilibrium Navier Stokes flow field simulations. The basic tenets that guided the formulation and implementation of the Orbiter Return To Flight boundary layer transition prediction capability will be reviewed as a recommended format for future empirical correlation efforts. The validity of this approach has since been demonstrated by very favorable comparison of recent entry flight testing performed with the Orbiter Discovery, which will be graphically summarized. These flight data can provide a means to validate discrete protuberance engineering correlation approaches as well as high fidelity prediction methods to higher confidence. The results of these Orbiter engineering and flight test activities only serve to reinforce the essential role that engineering correlations currently exercise in the design and operation of entry vehicles. The framework of information-related to the Orbiter empirical boundary layer transition prediction capability will be utilized to establish a fresh perspective on this role, to illustrate how quantitative statistical evaluations of empirical correlations can and should be used to assess accuracy and to discuss what the authors' perceive as a recent heightened interest in the application of high fidelity numerical modeling of boundary layer transition. Concrete results will also be developed related to empirical boundary layer transition onset correlations. This will include assessment of the discrete protuberance boundary layer transition onset data assembled for the Orbiter configuration during post-Columbia Return To Flight. Assessment of these data will conclude that momentum thickness Reynolds number based correlations have superior coefficients and uncertainty in comparison to roughness height based Reynolds numbers, aka Re(sub k) or Re(sub kk). In addition, linear regression results from roughness height Reynolds number based correlations will be evaluated, leading to a hypothesis that non-continuum effects play a role in the processes associated with incipient boundary layer transition on discrete protuberances.

Campbell, Charles H.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Ku-band antenna acquisition and tracking performance study, volume 4

The results pertaining to the tradeoff analysis and performance of the Ku-band shuttle antenna pointing and signal acquisition system are presented. The square, hexagonal and spiral antenna trajectories were investigated assuming the TDRS postulated uncertainty region and a flexible statistical model for the location of the TDRS within the uncertainty volume. The scanning trajectories, shuttle/TDRS signal parameters and dynamics, and three signal acquisition algorithms were integrated into a hardware simulation. The hardware simulation is quite flexible in that it allows for the evaluation of signal acquisition performance for an arbitrary (programmable) antenna pattern, a large range of C/N sub O's, various TDRS/shuttle a priori uncertainty distributions, and three distinct signal search algorithms.

Huang, T. C.↗

NASA NTRS1978

GPS-aided Space Shuttle navigation

In the present paper, specific GPS (Global Positioning System) aided Shuttle navigation are presented as examples of the navigation performance prediction process. The process described is a statistical covariance error analysis. To facilitate detailing, the process is broken down into four portions with sharply limited interfaces. Considerations of mission scenarios form one distinct package of computer routines. Simulation of the onboard navigation filter is another facet of the process, as are the larger system covariance program and the GPS segment covariance simulation. The combination of these computer tools permits proper evaluation of the multitude of correlated error sources affecting GPS-aided Shuttle navigation.

Matchett, G.↗