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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Q1-2024 Solar Cost Benchmarks

Each year, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) and its national laboratory partners develop cost benchmarks for U.S. solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. These benchmarks track progress toward reducing solar costs and guide R&D priorities. Unlike typical studies that report only $/W, SETO uses intrinsic units (e.g., $/m² for mounting structures) to better capture how technology improvements such as module efficiency would impact system costs. This allows flexible modeling where inputs can vary significantly to assess cost sensitivity. Costs are reported in two ways: Minimum Sustainable Price (MSP): Long term, financially viable price under stable market conditions. Modeled Market Price (MMP): Actual market price, influenced by short term distortions such as tariffs or subsidies. Three national labs collect cost data from industry stakeholders, ensuring no duplication in outreach to stakeholders. Data reflects real transactions (primarily from Q1) and is weighted based on the number of sources per cost element. The PV System Cost Model (PVSCM) divides total installed system cost into eight categories: 1. Module (PV) 2. Inverter 3. Energy Storage System (ESS) 4. Structural BOS (SBOS) 5. Electrical BOS (EBOS) 6. Fieldwork 7. Office work 8. Other (developer/EPC costs) The first five are hardware costs, while the last three are soft costs. Each category includes fixed and variable cost components, where “size” depends on context (e.g., manufacturing capacity for modules vs. system capacity for installation costs). Variable costs are expressed using appropriate intrinsic units. The model reflects the owner’s upfront overnight capital cost, excluding tax credits. Tariffs and subsidies are treated as temporary market distortions affecting MMP but not MSP. PVSCM is implemented in Excel, where cost elements are aggregated into total system cost. Additional sheets handle unit conversions and operation & maintenance (O&M), with O&M costs levelized over the system’s lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Collaboration with NSTX in Calculations of Radiofrequency and Neutral Beam Heating and Current Drive

The overall objective of this project was to advance the understanding of heating and current drive necessary for toroidal magnetic confinement fusion energy reactors, and to provide accurate models for these sources to aid in understanding magneto-hydrodynamic, transport and boundary physics issues. Increased understanding is provided by computer simulation using the underlying physics laws, and will lead to greater reliability and increased efficiency of a power producing fusion reactor. The proposed work entailed applications of existing CompX Fokker-Planck, ray tracing, full-wave microwave, and particle diffusion calculator codes to the National Spherical Torus Experiment at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. Special features of NSTX include that large ion orbits are emphasized in its geometry and thus offer a major opportunity within fusion research for focused exploration of their ubiquitous effects, including comparison with simulation codes. The CompX CQL3D Fokker-Planck code was be further adapted to the finite-orbit-width physics. Comparison with experiment ensured that the computer codes have sufficient accuracy to accurately model the experiments. Nonthermal distributions of energetic ions are produced in experiments-- and modeled with the codes-- exhibiting the signatures of auxiliary heating, transport, and radiation processes within the plasma. Using physics-based modeling, in conjunction with experimental data, nonthermal distributions can provide keys to validation and quantification of auxiliary heating physics. Nonthermal distributions also hold particular information on radial transport processes, not obscured by the smoothing Maxwellization effects of Coulomb collisions. Generally, radial transport is not well understood but is a key to efficient fusion energy production. By comparison with Fokker-Planck modeling, the velocity dependence of radial transport coefficients becomes experimentally accessible, particularly in cases of well-modeled sources such as neutral beams, fast wave power, or the toroidal electric field. It is clear from modeling of fast-wave interactions with ions that finite-orbit-width effects play a significant role. For example, a different set of ions is computed to intersect a given cyclotron resonance depending on whether or not radial orbit drifts are taken into account. Also, radial transport, associated bootstrap current, and alpha channeling depend on radial drifts. Ion cyclotron heating above the first harmonic interacts preferentially with higher velocity ions, giving large radial drifts. The CQL3D Fokker-Planck code, maintained by the proposers, is a physics based model used extensively within the US fusion community to compare with and interpret experimental observations. At the beginning of this grant, bounce-averages of the rf quasilinear and other operators have been performed neglecting the radial drifts which give finite orbit widths to the particle orbits. The proposed work included a major upgrade to CQL3D to include finite-orbit-width effects be accounted for by performing the bounce-averages of rf and neutral beam fast ions along guiding center orbits. This CQL3D enhancement provided microwave and neutral beam contributions to neoclassical radial transport coefficients for nonthermal distributions, and substantially increased the comprehensiveness of the ion model. Additional work validated Fokker-Planck and ray tracing modeling of neutral beam and high harmonic fast wave absorption and current drive against the NSTX experiment, as had been very successful for electron cyclotron current drive in the DIII-D tokamak at General Atomics and lower hybrid waves on C-Mod at MIT. The validation work was in conjunction with staff and graduate students at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. This DOE grant supported fusion energy research, a potential long-term solution to the world's energy needs. The research grant under consideration, DE-SC0006614, provided research support at the 0.3 Full-Time-Equivalent level for application of computer models to aid in understanding and projecting efficacy of heating and current drive sources in the National Spherical Torus Experiment, a tokamak variant, at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. The NSTX experiment explores the physics of very tight aspect ratio, almost spherical tokamaks, aiming at producing steady-state fusion plasmas. The current drive is an integral part of the steady-state concept, maintaining the magnetic geometry in the steady-state tokamak.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-Term Aging in Miscible Polymer Nanocomposites

Here we find that the initial, solvent-cast state of nanoparticles (NPs) in a polymer matrix temporally evolves during thermal annealing such that, at steady state, NPs maximize their distance from each other subject to mass balance constraints. The observed timescales for this unexpected structural reorganization, as probed by small-angle X-ray scattering, are temperature-dependent and can be prohibitively large, especially at temperatures around and below 1.2Tg. X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy measurements during reorganization reveal that the collective NP dynamics slow down with annealing at constant temperature; this is accompanied by changes in the low-frequency regime in macroscopic viscoelastic measurements in equilibrated materials. By ruling out other potential sources for these effects (i.e., electrostatic interactions, adsorbed layers), we attribute these results to a long-ranged repulsive force between the NPs caused by fluctuations in the polymer phase, i.e., the "anti-Casimir" effect proposed by Obhukhov and Semenov [Long-range interactions in polymer melts: The anti-Casimir effect. Phys Rev Lett 2005, 95 (3), 038305]. Thus, our results highlight the important role of long-term, slow NP reorganization on the structure and, subsequently, the properties of polymer nanocomposites (PNCs), even in the case of nominally miscible polymer nanoparticle hybrids.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights from application of a hierarchical spatio-temporal model to an intensive urban black carbon monitoring dataset

Existing regulatory pollutant monitoring networks rely on a small number of centrally located measurement sites that are purposefully sited away from major emission sources. While informative of general air quality trends regionally, these networks often do not fully capture the local variability of air pollution exposure within a community. Recent technological advancements have reduced the cost of sensors, allowing air quality monitoring campaigns with high spatial resolution. The 100×100 black carbon (BC) monitoring network deployed 100 low-cost BC sensors across the 15 km 2 West Oakland, CA community for 100 days in the summer of 2017, producing a nearly continuous site-specific time series of BC concentrations which we aggregated to one-hour averages. Leveraging this dataset, we employed a hierarchical spatio-temporal model to accurately predict local spatio-temporal concentration patterns throughout West Oakland, at locations without monitors (average cross-validated hourly temporal R 2 =0.60). Using our model, we identified spatially varying temporal pollution patterns associated with small-scale geographic features and proximity to local sources. In a sub-sampling analysis, here we demonstrated that fine scale predictions of nearly comparable accuracy can be obtained with our modeling approach by using ~30% of the 100×100 BC network supplemented by a shorter-term high-density campaign.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Improved Simulation of the QBO in E3SMv1

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the zonal mean wind is a prominent feature of the tropical lower stratosphere and has been shown to influence stratospheric and tropospheric variability. Although observed for many decades, the QBO is difficult to be accurately captured in Earth system models. The newly developed U.S. Department of Energy Energy Exascale Earth System Model, Version 1 (E3SMv1) is capable of resolving stratospheric dynamics as it has a top at 0.1 hPa and 72 levels. The tropical oscillation of the zonal mean zonal wind in the default version of the model is too fast and too strong compared to the observed QBO. Here we evaluate the current simulation of the QBO and present simulations with modified convective gravity wave parameterization parameters that make the oscillation more realistic, especially in terms of the period. Although improvements in the QBO are obtained through modifications to the parameterized gravity waves, we find that the forcing of the QBO from Kelvin and mixed-Rossby gravity waves is small due to weak sources in the troposphere. The changes to the parameterized convective gravity waves (and QBO) are primarily limited to the tropical stratosphere. Small changes to mean wind and temperature are also found in Northern Hemisphere winter in the uppermost troposphere between 10°N and 60°N. Modifications to parameterized convectively generated gravity waves result in changes in interannual variability, primarily in the Southern Hemisphere, and modest changes in sea level pressure variability over the Pacific are also noted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupling flux balance analysis with reactive transport modeling through machine learning for rapid and stable simulation of microbial metabolic switching

Integrating genome-scale metabolic networks with reactive transport models (RTMs) provides a detailed description of the dynamic changes in microbial growth and metabolism. Despite promising demonstrations in the past, computational inefficiency has been pointed out as a critical issue to overcome because it requires repeated application of linear programming (LP) to obtain flux balance analysis (FBA) solutions in every time step and spatial grid. To address this challenge, we propose a new simulation method where we train and validate artificial neural networks (ANNs) using randomly sampled FBA solutions and incorporate the resulting surrogate FBA model (represented as algebraic equations) into RTMs as source/sink terms. We demonstrate the efficiency of our method via a case study of Shewanella oneidensis MR-1. During aerobic growth on lactate, S. oneidensis produces metabolic byproducts (such as pyruvate and acetate), which are subsequently consumed as alternative carbon sources when the preferred nutrients are depleted. To effectively simulate these complex dynamics, we used a cybernetic approach that models metabolic switches as the outcome of dynamic competition among multiple growth options. In both zero-dimensional batch and one-dimensional column configurations, the ANN-based surrogate models achieved substantial reduction of computational time by several orders of magnitude compared to the original LP-based FBA models. Moreover, the ANN models produced robust solutions without any special measures to prevent numerical instability. These developments significantly promote our ability to utilize genome-scale networks in complex, multi-physics, and multi-dimensional ecosystem modeling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The incidence of X-ray selected AGN in nearby galaxies

ABSTRACT We present the identification and analysis of an unbiased sample of active galactic nuclei (AGN) that lie within the local galaxy population. Using the MPA-JHU catalogue (based on SDSS DR8) and 3XMM DR7 we define a parent sample of 25 949 local galaxies (z ≤ 0.33). After confirming that there was strictly no AGN light contaminating stellar mass and star-formation rate calculations, we identified 917 galaxies with central, excess X-ray emission likely originating from an AGN. We analysed their optical emission lines using the BPT diagnostic and confirmed that such techniques are more effective at reliably identifying sources as AGN in higher mass galaxies: rising from 30 per cent agreement in the lowest mass bin to 93 per cent in the highest. We then calculated the growth rates of the black holes powering these AGN in terms of their specific accretion rates (∝LX/M*). Our sample exhibits a wide range of accretion rates, with the majority accreting at rates $\le 0.5\ \mathrm{ per \, cent}$ of their Eddington luminosity. Finally, we used our sample to calculate the incidence of AGN as a function of stellar mass and redshift. After correcting for the varying sensitivity of 3XMM, we split the galaxy sample by stellar mass and redshift and investigated the AGN fraction as a function of X-ray luminosity and specific black hole accretion rate. From this we found the fraction of galaxies hosting AGN above a fixed specific accretion rate limit of 10−3.5 is constant (at $\approx 1\ \mathrm{ per \, cent}$) over stellar masses of 8 < log M*/M⊙ < 12 and increases (from $\approx 1\ \mathrm{ per \, cent}$ to 10 per cent) with redshift.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

A hierarchical approach for modeling X-ray beamlines: application to a coherent beamline

Herein, different approaches to simulate a modern X-ray beamline are considered. Several methodologies with increasing complexity are applied to discuss the relevant parameters that quantify the beamline performance. Parameters such as flux, dimensions and intensity distribution of the focused beam, and coherence properties are obtained from simple analytical calculations to sophisticated computer simulations using ray-tracing and wave optics techniques. A latest-generation X-ray nanofocusing beamline for coherent applications (ID16A at the ESRF) has been chosen to study in detail the issues related to highly demagnifying synchrotron sources and exploiting the beam coherence. The performance of the beamline is studied for two storage rings: the old ESRF-1 (emittance 4000 pm) and the new ESRF-EBS (emittance 150 pm). In addition to traditional results in terms of flux and beam sizes, an innovative study on the partial coherence properties based on the propagation of coherent modes is presented. The different algorithms and methodologies are implemented in the software suite OASYS . These are discussed with emphasis placed upon the their benefits and limitations of each.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accelerated Assessment of Critical Infrastructure in Aiding Recovery Efforts During Natural and Human-made Disaster

Relief and recovery from disasters (both natural and human-made) require a coordinated approach across several federal and state government agencies. In order to achieve optimal resource allocation and deployment of first responders, accurate and timely assessment of the impact and extent of destruction are the cornerstones to any recovery effort. Ideally, this knowledge should be gathered and shared within the first 0-24 hours (termed as "Acute Phase" by the U.S. CDC guideline) for informed decision-making. But achieving this poses significant challenges for the data collection and data harmonization processes, particularly when voluminous data are being generated from diverse and distributed sources during the disaster responses. To this end, this work developed a scalable and efficient workflow to dynamically collect and harmonize crowd-sourced geographic multi-modal data, and then assess critical infrastructure (CI) damaged during disaster events. We demonstrate the application of our framework with two real-world experiences in addressing post-disaster recovery efforts - for the Bahamas (Natural - due to Hurricane Dorian, 2019) and Beirut (Human-made - due to explosion caused by the ammonium nitrate stored in a warehouse, 2020). We have illustrated that a coordinated effort is needed for planning as well as for execution to achieve informed decision making.

Thakur, Gautam Malviya↗
DOE OSTI2020

Status of SRNL Radiological Field Lysimeter Experiment (RadFLEx) – Year 7

The Radiological Field Lysimeter Experiment (RadFLEx) began in 2012 and is a collaboration between the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) and Clemson University. The purpose of this facility is to study the long-term (2 to 20 years) fate and transport of radionuclides in the Savannah River Site (SRS) vadose zone under natural field and meteorological conditions. The unique facility houses 48 5-L cores filled with sediments amended with various radionuclide sources. The results from these studies have been applied to the development of geochemical models used to assess the risk posed by subsurface nuclear waste disposal, environmental remediation, and waste form development. This report describes the refurbishment of the exterior of the RadFLEx facility and the synthesis and deployment of six plutonium(Pu) sources, four neptunium (Np) sources and one radium (Ra) source. It is anticipated that these newly installed lysimeter cores will be studied for up to 10 years.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Port Authority of New York and New Jersey Sustainable Aviation Fuel Logistics and Production Study

The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) sustainability commitment is to meet the goals set by the Paris Agreement, with an interim greenhouse gas reduction target of 35% by 2025 and 80% by 2050. PANYNJ is seeking sustainable solutions to reduce carbon emissions for all public forms of transportation, including aviation. Similarly, the global aviation industry adopted the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), which seeks to cap net carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) aviation emissions at 2020 levels through 2035. Industry has also set a goal of reducing CO 2 emissions by 50% compared to 2005 levels by 2050. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), made from non-petroleum feedstocks, is a near-term alternative fuel that reduces emissions from air transportation. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a resource assessment and a techno-economic analysis to identify the potential for production in the port district. Although SAF could be sourced from other areas of the United States or imported, an evaluation of local production was conducted due to the potential positive impacts of a circular economy by converting local waste feedstocks into SAF for use at nearby airports. The study found that the highest volumes of feedstock nearby were municipal solid waste and woody biomass. SAF must be blended with Jet A up to certain percent determined by ASTM International fuel quality standards prior to use in aircraft. SAF from a stand-alone facility could be delivered by barge, rail, or truck to a Linden, New Jersey based terminal for blending with Jet A or it could be blended in the Gulf region and shipped via the Colonial pipeline to one of the terminals. The investment will take place at the terminal(s) to accommodate SAF/Jet A blends and it will be business as usual for the airports in how they receive fuel and distribute it to aircraft.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Zone plate-based extreme ultraviolet mask microscope with through-pellicle imaging capability

Mirror-based and zone plate-based imaging systems are being used in actinic extreme ultraviolet (EUV) reticle review tools. With regard to zone plates, a short working distance is advantageous in terms of the required spectral bandwidth, manufacturability, and potential throughput and imaging performance. Zone plates therefore typically have a short working distance. The industry has adopted the use of an EUV pellicle to protect the photomask. Imaging photomask through-pellicle requires a working distance larger than 2.5 mm. A zone-plate-based EUV mask microscope with a 3-mm working distance has been commissioned at beamline 11.3.2 of the Advanced Light Source. Through-pellicle imaging at an exposure time of 2 s is demonstrated. The instrument achieves an image contrast of 95% on large features on a photomask with a tantalum-based absorber. Imaging down to 45-nm half pitch (mask scale) is demonstrated. A NILS of 2.55 is achieved on 60-nm half-pitch (mask scale) lines and spaces. These results demonstrate that zone-plate-based imaging systems can meet the requirements of an actinic EUV mask review tool in terms of imaging performance and throughput in an instrument compatible with EUV pellicles.

Extreme ultraviolet↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Framework to Evaluate the Costs and Potential of Bioenergy in Decarbonization of the U.S. Economy

The long-term strategy of the United States targets reaching economy-wide net-zero emissions by 2050 and a carbon-neutral electricity grid by 2035 (U.S. Department of State and U.S. Executive Office of the President, 2021). Meeting these targets would require considerable changes to the energy system. Some key characteristics of illustrative net-zero energy systems include increased penetration of renewable energy and carbon sources, use of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in hard-to-abate sectors, and a greater role for energy carriers such as electricity and hydrogen (Davis et al, 2018). Another common feature of such energy systems is the need for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches (Horowitz et al, 2022). Across all these characteristics of net-zero energy systems, bioenergy and biomass feedstock is anticipated to play an important role. Biomass feedstock serves as a renewable carbon source. This can enable conversion of such feedstock into fuels and energy carriers for hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation. Indeed, the U.S. Government has a target to meet all jet fuel demand by 2050 from sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), where biofuel pathways are likely to have an important role (EERE, 2020). Bioenergy is also highly versatile with the possibility to convert feedstock into electricity, hydrogen, liquid fuels, heat or high-value products, based on biomass type, demand and technology availability (Clarke et al, 2022). Combination of bioenergy with CCS can also nominally deliver CDR (Fuhrman et al, 2023). As such, the share of bioenergy is expected to grow by at least five time across scenarios studied for the long-term strategy of the U.S. between 2020 and 2050 (Horowitz et al, 2022). Notwithstanding the role of bioenergy in the energy systems, its deployment, costs and scalability are influenced by a number of factors. Some of these factors pertain to policy interventions such as imposition of a binding decarbonization target either at an economy-wide level or the sectoral level. Resource availability and type of biomass feedstock also varies considerably across regions. From a technological perspective, the readiness of bioenergy conversion pathways is subject to high variability. This influences the costs of deployment. Moreover, the sourcing of feedstock, grid carbon intensity, and co-product handling approaches all affect the life cycle efficacy of bioenergy. The latter, in turn, is particularly important in determining the extent to which bioenergy with CCS or BECCS can effectively deliver CDR (Fajardy and Mac Dowell, 2017).

air emission↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long-term multi-wavelength study of 1ES 0647+250

The BL Lac object 1ES 0647+250 is one of the few distant γ-ray emitting blazars detected at very high energies (VHEs; &100 GeV) during a non-flaring state. It was detected with the MAGIC telescopes during a period of low activity in the years 2009-2011 as well as during three flaring activities in the years 2014, 2019, and 2020, with the highest VHE flux in the last epoch. An extensive multi-instrument data set was collected as part of several coordinated observing campaigns over these years. We aim to characterise the long-term multi-band flux variability of 1ES 0647+250, as well as its broadband spectral energy distribution (SED) during four distinct activity states selected in four different epochs, in order to constrain the physical parameters of the blazar emission region under certain assumptions. We evaluated the variability and correlation of the emission in the different energy bands with the fractional variability and the Z transformed discrete correlation function, as well as its spectral evolution in X-rays and γ rays. Owing to the controversy in the redshift measurements of 1ES 0647+250 reported in the literature, we also estimated its distance in an indirect manner through a comparison of the GeV and TeV spectra from simultaneous observations with Fermi-LAT and MAGIC during the strongest flaring activity detected to date. Moreover, we interpret the SEDs from the four distinct activity states within the framework of one-component and two-component leptonic models, proposing specific scenarios that are able to reproduce the available multi-instrument data. We find significant long-term variability, especially in X-rays and VHE γ rays. Furthermore, significant (3-4σ) correlations were found between the radio, optical, and high-energy (HE) γ-ray fluxes, with the radio emission delayed by about ~400 days with respect to the optical and γ-ray bands. The spectral analysis reveals a harder-when-brighter trend during the non-flaring state in the X-ray domain. However, no clear patterns were observed for either the enhanced states or the HE (30 MeV < E < 100 GeV) and VHE γ-ray emission of the source. The indirect estimation of the redshift yielded a value of z = 0.45 ± 0.05, which is compatible with some of the values reported in the literature. The SEDs related to the low-activity state and the three flaring states of 1ES 0647+250 can be described reasonably well with the both one-component and two-component leptonic scenarios. However, the long-term correlations indicate the need for an additional radio-producing region located about 3.6 pc downstream from the gamma-ray producing region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geothermal Deep Direct-Use for Low-Carbon Heating: A Case Study at Cornell University

Cornell University is developing a geothermal deep direct-use system to provide reliable, low carbon, and cost-competitive heating for its main campus in Ithaca, New York. This geothermal system, also referred to as Earth Source Heat, would provide the majority of the campus heating load and represents a key pillar for the university to become carbon neutral by 2035. Over the last 10 years, numerous desktop, seismic, and geophysical studies have been undertaken at Cornell to characterize the local subsurface, predict long-term reservoir performance, design the integration into the existing district heating network, and estimate capital and levelized costs. Recently, the university received funding for drilling an observatory well to obtain in-situ subsurface data (e.g., reservoir temperatures, pressures, fluid chemistry, stress field), significantly lowering subsurface uncertainty and de-risking the project. Drilling of the test well is planned for fall 2021. This paper provides an overview and status of the project, including a summary of past studies and a description of the proposed well and planned testing activities.

Cornell University↗
DOE OSTI2022

Time series anomaly detection in power electronics signals with recurrent and ConvLSTM autoencoders

The anomalies in the high voltage converter modulator (HVCM) remain a major down time for the spallation neutron source facility, that delivers the most intense neutron beam in the world for scientific materials research. In this work, we propose neural network architectures based on Recurrent AutoEncoders (RAE) to detect anomalies ahead of time in the power signals coming from the HVCM. Bi-directional gated recurrent unit, bi-directional long-short term memory (LSTM), and convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) are developed, trained, and tested using real experimental signals from the HVCM module. The results show a good performance of the proposed RAE models, achieving precision up to 91%, recall up to 88%, false omission rate as low as 20% (i.e. 80% of the anomalies were detected), and area under the ROC curve up to 0.9. The three RAE models provide very comparable performance, with LSTM showing slightly better performance than GRU and ConvLSTM. The RAE models are benchmarked against other anomaly detection methods, including isolation forest, support vector machine, local outlier factor, feedforward and convolutional autoencoders, and others; showing a better performance. Here, the results of this study demonstrate the promising potential of RAE in anomaly detection for real-world power systems, and for increasing the reliability of the HVCM modules in the spallation neutron source.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inductive predictions of hydrologic events using a Long Short-Term Memory network and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool

We present machine learning methods to predict hydrologic features such as streamflow and soil moisture from spatially and temporally varying hydrological and meteorological data. Here, we used a temporal reduction technique to reduce computation and memory requirements and trained a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to predict soil moisture and streamflow over multiple watersheds. We show LSTM networks can be trained in a fraction of the time required by complex process-based and attention-based models such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and GeoMAN without sacrificing accuracy. We also demonstrate that outside data - sourced from a watershed other than the target - can be used to train LSTM to comparable or even superior prediction accuracy. The success of LSTM in such spatially-inductive settings shows hydrologic features can be predicted with minimal prior knowledge of the watershed in question. Finally, we make all methodologies of this work publicly available as an end-to-end software pipeline that facilitates rapid prototyping of hydrologic learners.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Doppler effect in rotating systems and Mössbauer rotor experiments

We address once more the problem of the physical interpretation of the Mössbauer effect in a rotating system in the view of the recently discovered extra energy shift (EES) between emitted and absorbed resonant radiation, which emerges in addition to the usual second order Doppler shift for an orbiting absorber. We highlight that both fractional components of the total energy shift have the same sign and correspond to the blueshift of the resonant radiation propagating from the rotational axis to the rotor rim. We indicate a possible way of understanding the origin of the EES in terms of combining metric effects in rotating systems with the quantum mechanical description of resonant nuclei confined in crystal cells by taking into account the recoil-free essence of the Mössbauer effect, where no energy is transmitted to the source (absorber) during the emission (absorption) of resonant radiation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗