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DOE OSTI2023

The influence of physical and algorithmic factors on simulated far-field waveforms and source–time functions of underground explosions using unsupervised machine learning

SUMMARY Characterizing explosion sources and differentiating between earthquake and underground explosions using distributed seismic networks becomes non-trivial when explosions are detonated in cavities or heterogeneous ground material. Moreover, there is little understanding of how changes in subsurface physical properties affect the far-field waveforms we record and use to infer information about the source. Simulations of underground explosions and the resultant ground motions can be a powerful tool to systematically explore how different subsurface properties affect far-field waveform features, but there are added variables that arise from how we choose to model the explosions that can confound interpretation. To assess how both subsurface properties and algorithmic choices affect the seismic wavefield and the estimated source functions, we ran a series of 2-D axisymmetric non-linear numerical explosion experiments and wave propagation simulations that explore a wide array of parameters. We then inverted the synthetic far-field waveform data using a linear inversion scheme to estimate source–time functions (STFs) for each simulation case. We applied principal component analysis (PCA), an unsupervised machine learning method, to both the far-field waveforms and STFs to identify the most important factors that control variance in the waveform data and differences between cases. For the far-field waveforms, the largest variance occurs in the shallower radial receiver channels in the 0–50 Hz frequency band. For the STFs, both peak amplitude and rise times across different frequencies contribute to the variance. We find that the ground equation of state (i.e. lithology and rheology) and the explosion emplacement conditions (i.e. tamped versus cavity) have the greatest effect on the variance of the far-field waveforms and STFs, with the ground yield strength and fracture pressure being secondary factors. Differences in the PCA results between the far-field waveforms and STFs could possibly be due to near-field non-linearities of the source that are not accounted for in the estimation of STFs and could be associated with yield strength, fracture pressure, cavity radius and cavity shape parameters. Other algorithmic parameters are found to be less important and cause less variance in both the far-field waveforms and STFs, meaning algorithmic choices in how we model explosions are less important, which is encouraging for the further use of explosion simulations to study how physical Earth properties affect seismic waveform features and estimated STFs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Loads assessment of a fixed-bottom offshore wind farm with wake steering

Wake steering via deliberate yaw offset is an emerging wind farm control technique that has the potential to mitigate wake losses and further increase wind farm energy yield. The loads impact of this technique has been studied, but there is limited insight into wind-farm-wide impacts of wake steering. Understanding such impacts is crucial to determining the feasibility of using wake steering in commercial wind farms. To that end, this work investigates the impacts of wake steering on the loads of all turbine components across all turbines in a wind farm operating under a broad set of inflow conditions, including inflow velocity, shear exponent, turbulence class, and inflow angle. This was done by performing FAST.Farm simulations of a 12-turbine wind farm array, excerpted from a larger hypothetical wind farm. The International Energy Agency Wind 15-MW reference wind turbine was modeled atop a monopile substructure, an open-source model that closely approximates the properties of similar commercial options. Wake steering was included via yaw offsets that were computed using an offline optimization with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory tool FLORIS. For each inflow case, the 12-turbine array was simulated with and without wake steering. Results were compared in terms of time-averaged means, standard deviations, ultimate loads, and damage-equivalent loads. The findings show that because wake steering is generally applied at rated wind speeds and below, it is unlikely to drive ultimate loads. For fatigue loads, wake steering does increase the overall fatigue accumulation for some load channels, such as blade-root and shaft bending. This is to be expected when overall power yield increases but may cause the damage accumulation to be more uniform throughout the array. The significance of the added fatigue loading is dependent on how frequent wake steering is utilized in the overall set of inflow conditions across the wind rose.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multidisciplinary concurrent optimization framework for multi-phase building design process

Modern day building design projects require multidisciplinary expertise from architects and engineers across various phases of the design (conceptual, preliminary, and detailed) and construction processes. The Architecture Engineering and Construction (AEC) community has recently shifted gears toward leveraging design optimization techniques to make well-informed decisions in the design of buildings. However, most of the building design optimization efforts are either multidisciplinary optimization confined to just a specific design phase (conceptual/preliminary/detailed) or single disciplinary optimization (structural/thermal/daylighting/energy) spanning across multiple phases. Complexity in changing the optimization setup as the design progresses through subsequent phases, interoperability issues between modeling and physics-based analysis tools used at later stages, and the lack of an appropriate level of design detail to get meaningful results from these sophisticated analysis tools are few challenges that limit multi-phase multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) in the AEC field. Here this paper proposes a computational building design platform leveraging concurrent engineering techniques such as interactive problem structuring, simulation-based optimization using meta models for energy and daylighting (machine learning based) and tradespace visualization. The proposed multi-phase concurrent MDO framework is demonstrated by using it to design and optimize a sample office building for energy and daylighting objectives across multiple phases. Furthermore, limitations of the proposed framework and future avenues of research are listed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rancor Integrated Procedure System (RIPS): A Computer-Based Procedure Platform for Advanced Reactor Research

The Rancor Microworld Simulator is a simplified, pressurized water, small modular reactor simulator that includes a multi-unit plant model server, an advanced digital human-machine control interface, and the Rancor Integrated Procedure System (RIPS). Rancor provides a research and development tool that can be used for collecting operator performance data and for prototyping concepts of operations (ConOps) for advanced reactor development. RIPS is meant as a research tool and includes many unique features: (1) RIPS has a robust procedure authoring system. (2) RIPS has the capability to run any of the three IEEE-Std-1786 computer-based procedure types. (3) RIPS can be configured to take on the look and feel of different vendors’ computer-based procedure systems for the purpose of developing and evaluating different ConOps for plant upgrades or new builds. (4) RIPS includes the capability for logging operator procedure use, including integrating procedure logs with Rancor simulator logs, thereby allowing automated data collection of operator scenario runs. (5) RIPS integrates with the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER), a dynamic human reliability analysis environment that creates a digital human twin or virtual operator to mimic reactor operator performance. (6) RIPS includes support for automation of plant monitoring and control functions. While RIPS is explicitly built into Rancor, it may also be used with full-scope training simulators. This functionality allows RIPS to be used for existing plants and advanced reactors under development.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Should Sea-Ice Modeling Tools Designed for Climate Research Be Used for Short-Term Forecasting?

In theory, the same sea-ice models could be used for both research and operations, but in practice, differences in scientific and software requirements and computational and human resources complicate the matter. Although sea-ice modeling tools developed for climate studies and other research applications produce output of interest to operational forecast users, such as ice motion, convergence, and internal ice pressure, the relevant spatial and temporal scales may not be sufficiently resolved. For instance, sea-ice research codes are typically run with horizontal resolution of more than 3 km, while mariners need information on scales less than 300 m. Certain sea-ice processes and coupled feedbacks that are critical to simulating the Earth system may not be relevant on these scales; and therefore, the most important model upgrades for improving sea-ice predictions might be made in the atmosphere and ocean components of coupled models or in their coupling mechanisms, rather than in the sea-ice model itself. This paper discusses some of the challenges in applying sea-ice modeling tools developed for research purposes for operational forecasting on short time scales, and highlights promising new directions in sea-ice modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transportation Hub Infrastructure Expansion: Decision Support Under Uncertainty

The Athena project (www.athena-mobility.org) has worked to investigate the relationship between the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport (DFW) and the greater Dallas area in order to better understand and therefore better inform future decision-making regarding the critical infrastructure that influence mobility between the airport and the city. Through this work, infrastructure related to curbside pickup and drop-off, parking, public transit, and the road network congestion were identified as critical to the operation of the DFW transportation hub. The infrastructure analysis and expansion aspect of the Athena project is focused on the restructuring of the CTA curb as a hierarchical curb and the building or repurposing of parking infrastructure as the interplay between these two areas. Many sources of uncertainty exist that may impact future airport and transportation hub operations, such as passenger volume growth, population demographic changes over time, electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates, and autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption rates. Due to these sources of uncertainty, we have selected for our research a modeling framework that can capture various types of uncertainty and hedge against those uncertainties in the optimization process. We analyze road network and curb congestion, the rise of transportation networking companies, trends in parking usage, existing policies around this infrastructure, airport revenue streams, and other contributing factors to enable infrastructure decision making with less uncertainty. To accomplish this wholistic analysis, we have developed a novel multi-stage, multi-period stochastic optimization model which considers the airport's decisions from 2025-2045 under different possible future macro trajectories and day-to-day variations in operational conditions captured as "annual representation of operations" scenarios with respective probabilities. This model has also been designed to leverage the outputs of various efforts under the Athena project to create a combined decision framework for infrastructure decisions. These various efforts include the route optimization model, the ASPIRES simulation, the mode choice model, and the SUMO traffic simulation. Our computational experiments of this system at scale have resulted in a working version of our infrastructure model which enables the explicit representation and consideration of various sources of uncertainty in the decision process to enable robust, flexible decision-making. This model has been effectively run on NREL's HPC system, Eagle, with large numbers of stochastic scenarios and shows promise as a scalable tool for robust consideration of uncertainties in airport planning. We have tested our model using 30,240 operational circumstances in total, resulting in a problem with more 200 million variables. This model was solved in several different configurations, and a workflow to simulate the performance of the infrastructure model results was developed and deployed. In general, our results indicate that a combination of remote parking, remote curb infrastructure, and dynamic pricing can generate revenue, reduce emissions, accommodate emerging technologies such as AVs and EVs, and manage airport passenger growth over time. We note the success of the proposed strategy depends on the data collection and forecasting abilities of DFW. We have also seen that the AV adoption by TNCs might necessitate larger amounts of remote curb. The results of this work inform strategies for airport infrastructure decision making, as well as demonstrate the value of an adaptable model, but also indicate that there are avenues remaining where further research would be of value.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Simulation of a Sub-Critical Coal Fired Power Plant

In order to address the demanding operating conditions for remaining coal-fired power plants, a dynamic model and a suite of tools have been developed for studying load cycling and to find optimization opportunities. A sub-critical steam cycle power plant was modeled in a flow-sheet modeling tool, APROS™. The model represented the firing system, economizer, evaporator, superheat, and reheat systems. Four loads from 100% TMCR to 25% TMCR were calibrated and tested such that low-to-high cycling could be studied. The model was run through various load cycles; one of which is presented here. This modeling is a prototype for general use in developing cutting edge controls products and for maximizing economic, low-emissions, and efficient operation of the existing coal power fleet.

Braun, Timothy↗

DOE OSTI2021

A first principles framework to predict the transient performance of latent heat thermal energy storage

Thermal energy storage (TES) is increasingly recognized as an essential component of efficient Combined Heat and Power (CHP), Concentrated Solar Power (CSP), Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC), and refrigeration as it reduces peak demand while helping to manage intermittent availability of energy (e.g., from solar or wind). Latent Heat Thermal Energy Storage (LHTES) is a viable option because of its high energy storage density. Parametric analysis of LHTES in terms of dimensionless numbers is highly desired as a tool to model LHTES systems. One approach is to develop a model equation so as to minimize the error between the model and data obtained from experiments or simulations. While this approach can produce an accurate correlation applicable within the range of data used for its creation, it does not provide physical understanding of the rate-limiting process controlling the transient behavior of the device. In this paper we present an alternative approach whereby the potential rate-limiting processes are identified from first principles and then the key process is determined as a function of time as a LHTES device is charged. For example, in a simple geometry, the melt-fraction can be expected to vary linearly in time if the heat transfer rate is limited by natural convection of the phase changing material and we show it scales with the PCM Grashof number as $Gr^1_p$ and PCM Prandtl number as $Pr_p^{(1/3)}$. On the other hand, if surface area of solid PCM limits the heat transfer rate, the melt fraction increases asymptotically to reach full melting. The existence of these linear and asymptotic regions and the $Gr^1_pP r^{1/3}_p$ shape of the melt fraction curve is verified using our database of 64 simulations. Of practical importance in designing LHTES devices is the melt fraction at which the heat transfer rate ceases to be limited by convection, after which the heat storage rate deteriorates. For our geometry, this is found to be about 90%. This test case of our methodology shows the value of our approach, that predicting heat storage rate based on the rate-limiting physical phenomenon as a function of time is an effective approach to modeling LHTES devices.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Chemist’s Guide to Solid-State Qubits: Diamond Color Centers as Embedded Vacancy-Centered Molecules

Diamond point defects or color centers are at the crux of solid-state quantum technology applications, from computing to sensing. Modeling molecular qubits has advanced by leaps and bounds mainly due to the advanced quantum mechanical (QM) tools in the arsenal of quantum chemists for modeling (isolated) molecular systems, which should be easily translatable for analogous systems in the solid state. Here, we simulate a series of diamond defects: a carbon vacancy (V C ) and second row substitutions that are adjacent to a V C or D C V C , with D = B, N, and O, to evaluate their magnetic and optical properties. We applied molecular orbital principles, an embedded cluster method, and a multiconfigurational QM theory to computationally characterize the above-mentioned defects for a multitude of spin, charge, and excited states. Our computational approach delivered high-quality QM insights that compare well with experiments. Furthermore, with this framework, we confirm the spin-triplets B C V C – and O C V C 0 to be analogous to N C V C – , with calculated bright transitions that respectively correspond to UV (3.80 eV) and blue (2.65 eV) light absorption and emission lifetimes (τ) of 2.3 and 5.6 ns, which are higher in energy and more short-lived (and thus brighter) than that for N C V C – : green (2.26 eV), τ = 9.5 ns.

Martirez, John Mark P. [Princeton Plasma Physics L↗

DOE OSTI2022

pyJSPEC - A Python Module for IBS and Electron Cooling Simulation

The intrabeam scattering is an important collective effect that can deteriorate the property of a high-intensity beam and electron cooling is a method to mitigate the IBS effect. JSPEC (JLab Simulation Package on Electron Cooling) is an open-source C++ program developed at Jefferson Lab, which simulates the evolution of the ion beam under the IBS and/or the electron cooling effect. The Python wrapper of the C++ code, pyJSPEC, for Python 3.x environment has been recently developed and released. It allows the users to run JSPEC simulations in a Python environment. It also makes it possible for JSPEC to collaborate with other accelerator and beam modeling programs as well as plentiful python tools in data visualization, optimization, machine learning, etc. In this paper, we will introduce the features of pyJSPEC and demonstrate how to use it with sample codes and numerical results.

Zhang, H.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of the performance of a hybrid CPU/GPU 1D2D coupled model for real flood cases

Coupled 1D2D models emerged as an efficient solution for a two-dimensional (2D) representation of the floodplain combined with a fast one-dimensional (1D) schematization of the main channel. At the same time, high-performance computing (HPC) has appeared as an efficient tool for model acceleration. In this work, a previously validated 1D2D Central Processing Unit (CPU) model is combined with an HPC technique for fast and accurate flood simulation. Due to the speed of 1D schemes, a hybrid CPU/GPU model that runs the 1D main channel on CPU and accelerates the 2D floodplain with a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) is presented. Since the data transfer between sub-domains and devices (CPU/GPU) may be the main potential drawback of this architecture, the test cases are selected to carry out a careful time analysis. Here, the results reveal the speed-up dependency on the 2D mesh, the event to be solved and the 1D discretization of the main channel. Additionally, special attention must be paid to the time step size computation shared between sub-models. In spite of the use of a hybrid CPU/GPU implementation, high speed-ups are accomplished in some cases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Finite Element Analysis System Workflow Tools

A collection of MATLAB functions and class definitions called System Workflow Tools (SWFT) are available to semi-automate steps in the simulation process. Some of these steps are often simple and routine for smaller finite element models, but if done directly by an analyst can quickly become labor intensive, cumbersome, and error prone for larger, system level models. Some of SWFT’s capabilities demonstrated in this report includes writing Sierra input decks and processing Quantities of Interest (QOI) from results files. SWFT also writes scripts in order to utilize other software programs such as Cubit (separating system level CAD into subassemblies and components, creating nodesets and sidesets), DAKOTA (ensemble management), and ParaView (contour plots and animations). Detailed commands and workflows from mesh generation to report generation are provided as examples for analysts to utilize SWFT capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using Neural Networks for Low Energy Reconstruction and Neutron Identification in the MicroBooNE LArTPC

Identifying and reconstructing final-state neutrons from neutrino interactions in Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPCs) will enhance future oscillation measurements by recovering missing energy and improving neutrino interaction channel identification. However, neutrons are challenging to reconstruct as the majority leave only small, isolated charge signatures known as blips. Here we present initial efforts to identify neutrons in the MicroBooNE LArTPC with low energy protons from neutron-argon inelastic interactions that present as blips below the traditional tracking threshold in the TPC. Unlike for tracks, there is no algorithmic method to determine direction for blips since they span only a few wires. Therefore, we developed and trained a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to reconstruct the directionality of proton-induced blips, allowing us to separate signal from background by selecting blips that point back to the neutrino vertex. The model achieves a preliminary average angular resolution of 17 degrees when tested on a simulated sample of protons over 6 MeV in kinetic energy. This novel tool will enhance neutron detection in LArTPCs and expand a broad range of other low-energy physics searches such as for solar and supernova neutrinos.

Silva, Liani Isabel [Unlisted, US]↗

DOE OSTI2025

The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Version 5.8 Safety Analysis Code System

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 is a software simulation tool used to perform deterministic analysis of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced nuclear reactors. Detailed, mechanistic models of steady-state and transient thermal, hydraulic, kinetic, and mechanical phenomena are employed to describe the response of the reactor core, the reactor primary and secondary coolant loops, the reactor control and protection systems, and the balance-of-plant to accidents caused by changes in coolant flow, loss of heat rejection, or reactivity insertion. The consequences of single and double-fault accidents can be modeled, including fuel and coolant heating, fuel and cladding mechanical behavior, core reactivity feedbacks, coolant loop performance including natural circulation, and decay heat removal. Analyses are typically terminated upon demonstration of reactor and plant shutdown to permanently coolable conditions, or upon violation of design basis margins. The objective of the analysis is to quantify accident consequences as measured by the transient behavior of system performance parameters, such as fuel and cladding temperatures, reactivity, and cladding strain. Originally developed for analysis of sodium cooled reactors with oxide fuel clad by stainless steel, the models were subsequently extended and specialized to metallic fuel clad with advanced alloys and to several other coolant options, including lead, LBE, and water.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enabling Floating Offshore VAWT Design by Coupling OWENS and OpenFAST

Vertical-axis wind turbines (VAWTs) have a long history, with a wide variety of turbine archetypes that have been designed and tested since the 1970s. While few utility-scale VAWTs currently exist, the placement of the generator near the turbine base could make VAWTs advantageous over tradition horizontal-axis wind turbines for floating offshore wind applications via reduced platform costs and improved scaling potential. However, there are currently few numerical design and analysis tools available for VAWTs. One existing engineering toolset for aero-hydro-servo-elastic simulation of VAWTs is the Offshore Wind ENergy Simulator (OWENS), but its current modeling capability for floating systems is non-standard and not ideal. This article describes how OWENS has been coupled to several OpenFAST modules to update and improve modeling of floating offshore VAWTs and discusses the verification of these new capabilities and features. The results of the coupled OWENS verification test agree well with a parallel OpenFAST simulation, validating the new modeling and simulation capabilities in OWENS for floating VAWT applications. These developments will enable the design and optimization of floating offshore VAWTs in the future.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity analysis of the effect of wind and wake characteristics on wind turbine loads in a small wind farm

Abstract. Wind turbines are designed using a set of simulations to determine the fatigue and ultimate loads, which are typically focused solely on unwaked wind turbine operation. These structural loads can be significantly influenced by the wind inflow conditions. Turbines experience altered inflow conditions when placed in the wake of upstream turbines, which can additionally influence the fatigue and ultimate loads. It is important to understand the impact of uncertainty on the resulting loads of both unwaked and waked turbines. The goal of this work is to assess which wind-inflow-related and wake-related parameters have the greatest influence on fatigue and ultimate loads during normal operation for turbines in a three-turbine wind farm. Twenty-eight wind inflow and wake parameters are screened using an elementary effects sensitivity analysis approach to identify the parameters that lead to the largest variation in the fatigue and ultimate loads of each turbine. This study uses the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 5 MW baseline wind turbine, simulated with OpenFAST and synthetically generated inflow based on the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Kaimal turbulence spectrum with the IEC exponential coherence model using the NREL tool TurbSim. The focus is on sensitivity to individual parameters, though interactions between parameters are considered, and how sensitivity differs between waked and unwaked turbines. The results of this work show that for both waked and unwaked turbines, ambient turbulence in the primary wind direction and shear are the most sensitive parameters for turbine fatigue and ultimate loads. Secondary parameters of importance for all turbines are identified as yaw misalignment, streamwise integral length, and the exponent and streamwise components of the IEC coherence model. The tertiary parameters of importance differ between waked and unwaked turbines. Tertiary effects account for up to 9.0 % of the significant events for waked turbine ultimate loads and include veer, non-streamwise components of the IEC coherence model, Reynolds stresses, wind direction, air density, and several wake calibration parameters. For fatigue loads, tertiary effects account for up to 5.4 % of the significant events and include vertical turbulence standard deviation, lateral and vertical wind integral lengths, non-streamwise components of the IEC coherence model, Reynolds stresses, wind direction, and all wake calibration parameters. This information shows the increased importance of non-streamwise wind components and wake parameters in the fatigue and ultimate load sensitivity of downstream turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-Fidelity Heavy-Duty Vehicle Modeling Using Sparse Telematics Data

Heavy-duty commercial vehicles consume a significant amount of energy due to their large size and mass, directly leading to vehicle operators prioritizing energy efficiency to reduce operational costs and comply with environmental regulations. One tool that can be used for the evaluation of energy efficiency in heavy-duty vehicles is the evaluation of energy efficiency using vehicle modeling and simulation. Simulation provides a path for energy efficiency improvement by allowing rapid experimentation of different vehicle characteristics on fuel consumption without the need for costly physical prototyping. The research presented in this paper focuses on using real-world, sparsely sampled telematics data from a large fleet of heavy-duty vehicles to create high-fidelity models for simulation. Samples in the telematics dataset are collected sporadically, resulting in sparse data with an infrequent and irregular sampling rate. Captured in the dataset was geospatial information, time series measurements, and vehicle-specific metadata from a subset of 96 vehicles from varied geographic regions across North America. A series of custom algorithms was developed to process vehicle data and derive both vehicle model input parameters and representative drive cycles. Derived models provide a basis on which to simulate real-world vehicles and iterate on vehicle aerodynamics, auxiliary power loads, transmission shift schedules, and other parameters to achieve reduced fuel consumption and increase energy efficiency. Notably, these models were developed without the use of expensive field data collection, using only data collected through fleet telematics. Processed representative drive cycles are used to validate the fuel economy of derived models. The models developed through this research allow for more representative vehicle simulations with increased flexibility regarding vehicle-to-vehicle variations.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Viability of Flexible Dispatch of Unconventional Geothermal Systems

Flexible geothermal operations could boost project returns through the allocation of improved power purchase agreements and/or exploitation of power price arbitrage opportunities. In this study, we investigated the techno-economic feasibility of variable flow rate control and time-of-day pricing in closed-loop geothermal systems. We considered U-shaped multilateral system configurations and modeled a variety of technical system parameters. These designs were simulated using a slender-body theory (SBT) model for transient heat transfer and fluid flow. This subsurface model was integrated into the flexible geothermal economic model (FGEM) tool to evaluate the overall flexible geothermal system techno-economics. Future hourly ambient temperature conditions were based on the Sup3rCC dataset. Published datasets were used for future hourly wholesale electricity prices. We analyzed four operating strategies: 1) baseload operation, 2) seasonal dispatch (high flow rate during summer and nominal flow rate during the rest of the year), 3) net generation maximization by varying flow rate to maximize net power output, and 4) revenue maximization by varying flow rate to maximize revenue. We ran all four scenarios for a multiloop configuration with 12 lateral passes, 7-km vertical depth and 87-km total drilling length. Furthermore, we assumed a 60 degrees C/km geothermal gradient and ambient temperature and wholesale electricity prices for New Mexico as a typical state location. The nominal flow rate was set to 80 kg/s. When considering drilling costs of $1,000/m and a discount rate of 7%, the generation maximization scenario resulted in the lowest levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of ~$150/MWh. When considering project return on investment (ROI), defined as lifetime net income divided by upfront capital costs, all flexible operation scenarios performed better than the base case scenario. The highest ROI of 80% was obtained with the revenue maximization scenario. With drilling costs of $200/m and a discount rate of 5%, the generation maximization scenario resulted in LCOE of $49/MWh.

flexible geothermal↗