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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Usability Evaluation of Fleet Management Interface for High Density Vertiplex Environments

To meet the rising demand for an Advanced Air Mobility (i.e. urban and rural unmanned aircraft systems) ecosystem, NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) is hosting a series of simulations and flight tests under the High Density Vertiplex sub-project (HDV). HDV aims to develop an integrated automation architecture to support terminal area flight operations. The HDV simulations and flight tests address safety, integration, and operational challenges, while integrated systems and software demonstrate design readiness, robustness, and interoperability. During the initial HDV simulation in 2021, a prototype traffic management tool developed by NASA called Fleet Management Interface (FMI) was tested. FMI was designed to introduce an advanced level of human-automation interaction to aid both Ground Control Station Operators (GCSOs) and Fleet Managers (FMs) in remotely managing flights under their ownership. In a human-in-the-loop simulation, a usability study was conducted with FMI to identify optimal approaches for displaying information for human operators using subjective measures of usability, workload, situation awareness, risk, and trust, along with qualitative feedback. This study consisted of task analysis in which GCSO and FM subjects used an Urban Air Mobility (UAM) environment to develop and execute a plan for two different traffic scenarios of remotely controlled vehicles. In each scenario, a controlled vehicle completed a takeoff, active flight, and landing sequence while automated traffic flew in the background at a rate of 20 operations per hour. In the first scenario, the controlled vehicle flew a nominal route with takeoff and landing at the same vertiport. In the second scenario, the controlled vehicle started on the nominal route, then diverted to an unplanned location mid-flight. Results showed that self-reported performance, usability, trust, and situation awareness ratings of FMI were moderately to strongly high. There were small differences between scenarios, with Scenario 2 being perceived as more unstable, complex, variable, risky, and potentially harmful than Scenario 1. Furthermore, participants described improvements that could be made to create a better user experience. For example, users would like greater configurability of the interface based on their personal information requirements, and they would like the opportunity to review routes before assigning them. The results from this study will inform future development of the FMI with the end goal of creating a reference automation tool for airspace management procedures in AAM. The FMI could be introduced as a potential way to reduce dependency on traditional air navigation services through increased automation in high density vertiplex environments.

vertiplex↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Usability Evaluation of Fleet Management Interface for High Density Vertiplex Environments

To meet the rising demand for an Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) (i.e. urban and rural unmanned aircraft systems) ecosystem, the NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) is hosting a series of simulations and flight tests under the High Density Vertiplex sub-project (HDV) to prototype and study the effectiveness AAM capabilities under various operational contexts. HDV aims to develop an integrated automation architecture to support terminal area flight operations. The HDV simulations and flight tests address safety, integration, and operational challenges, while integrated systems and software demonstrate design readiness, robustness, and interoperability. During the initial HDV simulation in 2021, a prototype traffic management tool developed by NASA called the Fleet Management Interface (FMI) was tested. FMI was designed to introduce an advanced level of human-automation interaction to aid both Ground Control Station Operators (GCSOs) and Fleet Managers (FMs) in remotely managing flights under their ownership. In a human-in-the-loop simulation, a usability study was conducted with the FMI to identify optimal approaches for displaying information to human operators using subjective measures of usability, workload, situation awareness, risk, and trust, along with qualitative feedback. This study consisted of task analysis in which GCSO and FM subjects used an Urban Air Mobility (UAM) environment to develop and execute a plan for two different traffic scenarios of remotely controlled vehicles. In each scenario, a remotely controlled vehicle completed a takeoff, active flight, and landing sequence while simulated traffic flew in the background at a rate of 20 operations per hour. In the first scenario, the controlled vehicle flew a nominal route with takeoff and landing at the same vertiport. In the second scenario, the controlled vehicle started on the nominal route, then diverted to an unplanned location mid-flight. Results showed that self- reported performance, usability, trust, and situation awareness ratings of FMI were moderately to strongly high. There were small differences between scenarios, with Scenario 2 being perceived as more unstable, complex, variable, risky, and potentially harmful than Scenario 1. Furthermore, participants described improvements that could be made to create a better user experience. For example, users suggested customizable interfaces to accommodate information display preferences, and the ability to review routes before assigning them. The results from this study will inform future development of the FMI with the end goal of creating a reference automation tool for airspace management procedures in AAM. The FMI could serve to reduce dependency on traditional air navigation services through increased automation in high density vertiplex environments.

Fleet manager↗
NASA NTRS2023

Search for UnderUtilized Airspace for Extensible Traffic Management Operations Based on Air Traffic Patterns

This paper presents a new method to facilitate integrating new vehicle traffic operations, operating with existing air traffic operations. The extensible traffic management (xTM) concept assumes that the new vehicles can operate in a dedicated Cooperative Area (CA) with minimal interaction with conventional air traffic and requiring minimal air traffic supervision. Our method assumes that a new xTM CA can be created when an underutilized airspace with little or no traffic can be identified. Our approach involves modeling airspace as a tree data structure and iteratively subdividing it into smaller cells, with underutilized airspace defined as any cells without flight tracks. The benefits of our approach include its applicability to all xTM scenarios, the ability to handle both 2D and 3D space using a unique tree data structure, and computational efficiency for key functions such as space decomposition, labeling of connected cells, and searching of cells containing a given point. By automatically searching for underutilized airspace based on operating air traffic patterns, we can optimize airspace utilization and improve air traffic management. Our proposed approach can quantitatively determine when and where to allow xTM operations in the National Airspace System.

extensible traffic management↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enabling Interoperability in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT): Integrating Observations, Models, and AI for Actionable Insights Through NASA'S Intelligent Systems Technology Program

NASA’s Intelligent Systems Technology Program (IST) is driving a paradigm shift in Earth science through the development of Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT). These integrated information systems create a dynamic "digital replica" of the Earth by harmonizing continuous, multi-source observations with high-fidelity models and state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) that enable “What now?”, “What next?”, and “What if?” scenario building. These scenarios are reflected in NASA IST’s series of ESDTs, from the Coastal Zone Digital Twin that integrates complex data on the current state of the Chesapeake Bay to the Terrestrial Environmental Rapid-Replication and Assimilation Hydrometeorological (TerraHydro) AI-based ESDT that forecasts water movement across Earth’s surface, to the Agriculture Land Information System (AgLIS) which can be used to assess optimal planting dates and crop yield estimates. By bridging the gap between vast data archives and actionable insights, these projects enable a system-of-systems approach to understanding complex, interacting Earth processes. This poster will highlight recent innovations and future directions from NASA’s ESDT initiatives: Continuous Data Assimilation & Multi-Source Fusion. A core requirement of the ESDT work is the transition from static models to dynamic "living" replicas. This involves creating frameworks for the continual assimilation of near-real-time data from uncoordinated, heterogeneous sources, including satellite observations and airborne assets, and ground-based Internet of Things (IoT) sensors. These systems link design, operational status, and environmental data, ensuring the digital twin accurately reflects the current state of the physical Earth system. High-Fidelity Hybrid Modeling & Computational Acceleration to enable interactive "what-if" explorations, programs are moving beyond traditional, slow physical solvers by developing fast surrogate machine learning models and Deep Generative Models (DGMs). These hybrid approaches use neural networks to emulate complex physics, such as cloud feedback or ocean dynamics, at a fraction of the original computing cost, often leveraging advanced hardware like Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to achieve the necessary scale. Federated Ecosystems & Interoperable Frameworks rather than building isolated tools, NASA IST is moving toward federated ESDTs and reusable analytic collaborative frameworks. This theme focuses on interoperability standards and common ontologies that allow specialized digital twins to interact and share data. This system-of-systems architecture supports multi-discipline investigations, such as analyzing how upstream watershed changes impact downstream urban flooding or how wildfire emissions affect regional air quality. By leveraging these advancements, ESDTs empower researchers and decision-makers to conduct real-time analysis and run complex hypothetical scenarios, ultimately improving our understanding of Earth’s evolving systems and informing critical real-world applications.

Earth System↗
DOE OSTI2025

ReVise: A Human-AI Interface for Incremental Algorithmic Recourse

The recent adoption of artificial intelligence in socio-technical systems raises concerns about the black-box nature of the resulting decisions in fields such as hiring, finance, admissions, etc. If data subjects—such as job applicants, loan applicants, and students—receive an unfavorable outcome, they may be interested in algorithmic recourse, which involves updating certain features to yield a more favorable result when re-evaluated by algorithmic decision-making. Unfortunately, when individuals do not fully understand the incremental steps needed to change their circumstances, they risk following misguided paths that can lead to significant, long-term adverse consequences. Existing recourse approaches focus exclusively on the final recourse goal but neglect the possible incremental steps to reach the goal with real-life constraints, user preferences, and model artifacts. To address this gap, we formulate a visual analytic workflow for incremental recourse planning in collaboration with AI/ML experts and contribute an interactive visualization interface that helps data subjects efficiently navigate the recourse alternatives and make an informed decision. We also present one of the many usage scenarios, developed during exploratory feedback sessions with twelve graduate students using a real-world dataset, which demonstrates that our approach can be instrumental for data subjects in choosing a suitable recourse path.

algorithmic recourse↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-economic analysis of renewable energy generation at the South Pole

Transitioning from fossil-fuel power generation to renewable energy generation and energy storage in remote locations has the potential to reduce both carbon emissions and cost. Here, this study presents a techno-economic analysis for implementation of a hybrid renewable energy system at the South Pole in Antarctica, which currently hosts several high-energy physics experiments with nontrivial power needs. A tailored model of resource availability and economics for solar photovoltaics, wind turbine generators, lithium-ion energy storage, and long-duration energy storage at this site is explored in different combinations with and without existing diesel energy generation. The Renewable Energy Integration and Optimization (REopt) platform is used to determine the optimal system component sizing and the associated system economics and environmental benefit. We find that the least-cost system includes all three energy generation sources and lithium-ion energy storage. For an example steady-state load of 170 kW, this hybrid system includes 180 kW-DC of photovoltaic panels, 570 kW of wind turbines, and a 3.4 MWh lithium-ion battery energy storage system. This system reduces diesel consumption by 95% compared to an all -diesel configuration, resulting in approximately 1200 metric tons of carbon footprint avoided annually. Over the course of a 15-year analysis period the reduced diesel usage leads to a net savings of 57 million United States dollars, with a time to payback of approximately two years. All the scenarios modeled show that the transition to renewables is highly cost effective under the unique economics and constraints of this extremely remote site.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimal Gas-Electric Energy System Decarbonization Planning

As energy utilities implement climate change mitigation policies, system planners require strategies for achieving affordable emissions reductions. Coordinated planning of electric power and natural gas systems will allow synergistic investments to address cross-sector operational constraints, competing uses for net-zero emissions fuels, and shifts in energy demands across energy carriers. In this study, we develop a novel optimization program that finds the cost-minimizing mix of infrastructure expansion or reduction across gas and electric systems to satisfy sector-specific emissions constraints. Alongside energy supply resources, our framework allows for central-planning of end-use equipment stocks to allow switching between gas and electric appliances upon failure or premature replacement. The proposed model is used to simulate case study scenarios for a benchmark 24-pipe gas network coupled to a 24-node power system test network. We find that electrification of greater than 80% of core gas demands is a component of the least-cost solution for modeled energy systems. Despite this substitution, the gas system is maintained to service difficult-to-electrify customers and to deliver net-zero emissions gas to electricity generators in times of peak electricity demand. Restricting electrification of gas appliances increases reliance on power- to-gas technologies and increases annual costs by 15% in 2040. Neglecting constraints on pipeline blending of hydrogen can produce a misleading result that relies on hydrogen blend fractions of greater than 50%. In all cases, we find the average costs of delivered gas increase nearly 5-fold across the decarbonization transition, highlighting the importance of future work investigating cost-allocation strategies for ensuring an equitable energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Robustness of energy performance of Zero-Net-Energy (ZNE) homes

Zero-net-energy (ZNE) homes produce an adequate amount of energy on-site to meet their energy demand based on source energy for an entire year. California building energy efficiency standards require new residential buildings started in 2020 to be ZNE. For various reasons, a home designed as ZNE may not achieve ZNE performance in real operation. Here we aimed to quantify the robustness of the energy performance of ZNE homes due to weather variability, climate change, and the uncertainty of occupant behavior. A single-family ZNE house, based on the optimal cost-effective design in three California climate zones, was used to develop the EnergyPlus simulation models. Weather variations were considered from a combination of the historical 30 years’ actual meteorological year (AMY) weather data, typical year weather data in TMY3, and future weather data based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. Three scenarios of occupant behavior from the energy perspective were defined to represent the uncertainty about occupants’ activities, comfort requirements, and their adaptive interactions with buildings and systems. In terms of annual source energy, the simulation results of the ZNE homes showed: (1) a decrease of 23–38 percent for occupants with energy austerity behavior and an increase of 120–130 percent for occupants with energy wasteful behavior, compared with the baseline assumption of normal occupants; (2) a variation range of –15 percent to +14 percent for the results using 30-year AMY weather data compared with the baseline results using TMY3 weather data; (3) an increase of 10–13 percent with future weather in Fresno and Riverside and a decrease of 15 percent with San Francisco; and (4) climate change can reduce the gap between the austerity and wasteful consumption. These findings provide insights into how ZNE homes may perform in reality and inform architects, engineers, occupants, and policymakers to pay more attention to occupant behavior on design, operation, and regulations of ZNE homes to ensure energy performance robustness.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1981

Information and display requirements for aircraft terrain following

The display design procedure for manned vehicle systems, is applied and validated, for a particular scenario. The scenario chosen is that of zero visibility high speed terrain following (V = 466 ft/sec, H = 200 ft) with an A-10 aircraft. The longitudal (linearized) dynamics are considered. The variations in (command path over) terrain pi(t) are modeled as a third order random process. The display design methodology is based on the optimal control model of pilot response, and employs this model in various ways in different phases of the design process. The overall methodology indicates that the design process is intended as a precursor to manned simulation. It provides a rank ordering of candidate displays through a three level process.

Kleinman, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Design of Collectives of Agents to Control Non-Markovian Systems

The 'Collective Intelligence' (COIN) framework concerns the design of collectives of reinforcement-learning agents such that their interaction causes a provided 'world' utility function concerning the entire collective to be maximized. Previously, we applied that framework to scenarios involving Markovian dynamics where no re-evolution of the system from counter-factual initial conditions (an often expensive calculation) is permitted. This approach sets the individual utility function of each agent to be both aligned with the world utility, and at the same time, easy for the associated agents to optimize. Here we extend that approach to systems involving non-Markovian dynamics. In computer simulations, we compare our techniques with each other and with conventional-'team games'. We show whereas in team games performance often degrades badly with time, it steadily improves when our techniques are used. We also investigate situations where the system's dimensionality is effectively reduced. We show that this leads to difficulties in the agents' ability to learn. The implication is that 'learning' is a property only of high-enough dimensional systems.

Lawson, John W.↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Design of Collectives of Agents to Control Non-Markovian Systems

The Collective Intelligence (COIN) framework concerns the design of collectives of reinforcement-learning agents such that their interaction causes a provided "world" utility function concerning the entire collective to be maximized. Previously, we applied that framework to scenarios involving Markovian dynamics where no re-evolution of the system from counter-factual initial conditions (an often expensive calculation) is permitted. This approach sets the individual utility function of each agent to be both aligned with the world utility, and at the same time, easy for the associated agents to optimize. Here we extend that approach to systems involving non-Markovian dynamics. In computer simulations, we compare our techniques with each other and with conventional "team games". We show whereas in team games performance often degrades badly with time, it steadily improves when our techniques are used. We also investigate situations where the system's dimensionality is effectively reduced. We show that this leads to difficulties in the agents ability to learn. The implication is that learning is a property only of high-enough dimensional systems.

Lawson, John W.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Product Lifecycle Management and the Quest for Sustainable Space Exploration Solutions

Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) is an outcome of lean thinking to eliminate waste and increase productivity. PLM is inextricably tied to the systems engineering business philosophy, coupled with a methodology by which personnel, processes and practices, and information technology combine to form an architecture platform for product design, development, manufacturing, operations, and decommissioning. In this model, which is being implemented by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Engineering Directorate, total lifecycle costs are important variables for critical decision-making. With the ultimate goal to deliver quality products that meet or exceed requirements on time and within budget, PLM is a powerful concept to shape everything from engineering trade studies and testing goals, to integrated vehicle operations and retirement scenarios. This briefing will demonstrate how the MSFC Engineering Directorate is implementing PLM as part of an overall strategy to deliver safe, reliable, and affordable space exploration solutions and how that strategy aligns with the Agency and Center systems engineering policies and processes. Sustainable space exploration solutions demand that all lifecycle phases be optimized, and engineering the next generation space transportation system requires a paradigm shift such that digital tools and knowledge management, which are central elements of PLM, are used consistently to maximum effect. Adopting PLM, which has been used by the aerospace and automotive industry for many years, for spacecraft applications provides a foundation for strong, disciplined systems engineering and accountable return on investment. PLM enables better solutions using fewer resources by making lifecycle considerations in an integrative decision-making process.

Caruso, Pamela W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Models for Facilitating Government-Funded Activities in the Post-ISS LEO Ecosystem

The International Space Station National Lab (ISSNL) was established through Congressional authority in 2005 and has been managed by a nonprofit called the Center for the Advancement of Science in Space (CASIS) since 2011 to support research, development, education, and commercial activities in low-Earth orbit (LEO). NASA leadership is considering next steps for microgravity and orbital activities in LEO in preparation for the retirement of the International Space Station (ISS) and transition to Commercial LEO Destinations (CLDs) in the 2030 timeframe. Specifically, our study team within the NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy addressed the question: What are potential models for an ISS National Lab facilitating government-funded or subsidized activities on a commercial LEO platform after the transition of the ISS to one or more private platforms? To inform the trade space of potential models, we conducted over 40 discussions with stakeholders internal and external to NASA and reviewed over 35 documents related to LEO legislation, commercialization, models, and activities. Following the extensive literature review and discussions with diverse stakeholders, we defined and evaluated six models, in addition to the current ISSNL model. We assessed each model across three possible future scenarios (dynamic, steady, and limited growth of the commercial LEO market and activities) and across five stakeholder-driven model evaluation criteria (ability to meet NASA’s needs, adaptability, opportunity for collaboration, market sustainability, and equity and accessibility). The six models in the future trade space were: • Government Research Broker: Customizable research efforts on transport vehicles and CLDs • Innovation Campus: Modern terrestrial campus with workforce focus • Anchor Tenant: Long-term, substantial agreement for leasing space on a single CLD • Fee for Service: Free market approach with NASA-sponsored grants and service/data buys • Matchmaker: Neutral third-party connecting users to platforms • Institute Network: Network of separate but related efforts to enable commercial scaling The Government Research Broker model performed best across the scenarios, followed by Innovation Campus, Anchor Tenant, and Fee for Service. While Matchmaker and Institute Network exhibited positive aspects, the two models performed most favorably in future scenarios with well-established communities and markets. The six models presented in this study are representative of the potential trade space and are illustrative examples. NASA leadership can adjust models as desired to align to their priorities more closely by using combinations of the unique model features provided in our analysis. The optimal model is likely a combination of features from multiple models. Building upon this work to best position NASA and the diverse stakeholders of LEO activities for success post-ISS, further work will explore the near-term impact of preparing for the transition of the ISS to CLDs by identifying opportunities for modifying the current ISSNL-CASIS partnership. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank the many reviewers and discussants, internal and external to NASA, that contributed to the work.

Erica Rodgers↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal and Well Flow Performance of Closed-Loop Geothermal in the Wattenberg Area

Closed-loop geothermal systems provide an alternative to resource-constrained hydrothermal systems and stimulation-intensive enhanced geothermal systems. In this work, we apply the slender-body theory (SBT) model, to simulate the well flow and heat transfer performance of U-loop well designs in the Wattenberg area of the Denver-Julesburg Basin. Three U-loop well patterns are investigated, including a single-, double-, and multi-lateral design. The subsurface within the area of interest is characterized by deep, hot (> 200 degrees C) igneous/metamorphic basement rock underlying multiple sedimentary formations. The lateral section(s) of the U-loop lie(s) within a target depth of 6 km, where temperatures are estimated to approach 300 degrees C. As a base case, conduction-only heat transfer is investigated through simulations with the SBT model within U-loops with open-hole laterals that exchange heat directly with the hot, dry rock using water as a working fluid. The utilization of supercritical CO2 as a heat transfer fluid is also considered. For each scenario, the system performance in terms of annual heat production and temperature profile over a 20-year project lifetime are assessed. Also, the levelized costs of heat and electricity (LCOH and LCOE) are determined using a top-down techno-economic analysis model. The results show that the performance- and cost-optimized U-loop design is one having an injection-production well spacing of 1,000 meters with ten 50-meter-spaced laterals that traverse a subsurface system with a temperature gradient of 60 degrees C/km. By injecting 20 degrees C-water at a rate of 60 kg/s through this loop, an average heat production of 19 MWth (i.e., 2.2 MWe net plant output) can be achieved, resulting in an LCOE and LCOH of $136/MWhe and $1.53/GJ, respectively, over a 20-year project life.

closed-loop geothermal↗
DOE OSTI2025

Distributed Coordination of Demand-side Flexible Resources in Microgrid with All-Time Feasibility

The prevalence of distributed renewable generators motivates microgrid operators to exploit demand-side flexible resources (DFRs). Due to their dispersed nature, distributed DFR coordination has been a vibrant research area, while there are several issues awaiting to be addressed. On one hand, DFR power is internally coupled through power flow, while DFR usually cannot access grid information. On the other hand, in time-restricted scenarios, solution feasibility cannot be guaranteed by conventional dual-based algorithms. To fill these gaps, we propose a distributed DFR coordination framework with all-time feasibility. The proposed framework accounts for the distinct access of microgrid entities to grid information. A distributed and all-time feasible algorithm is proposed for optimal DFR coordination, which allows DFRs to make local decisions without violating constraints throughout iterations. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated through case studies. The impact of peer-to-peer communication links on algorithm convergence is also investigated, which emphasizes the balance between communication investment and algorithm performance.

Li, Hongyi [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United Sta↗
NASA NTRS2010

Three Dimensional Sector Design with Optimal Number of Sectors

In the national airspace system, sectors get overloaded due to high traffic demand and inefficient airspace designs. Overloads can be eliminated in some cases by redesigning sector boundaries. This paper extends the Voronoi-based sector design method by automatically selecting the number of sectors, allowing three-dimensional partitions, and enforcing traffic pattern conformance. The method was used to design sectors at Fort-Worth and Indianapolis centers for current traffic scenarios. Results show that new designs can eliminate overloaded sectors, although not in all cases, reduce the number of necessary sectors, and conform to major traffic patterns. Overall, the new methodology produces enhanced and efficient sector designs.

Xue, Min↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Spatiotemporal Optimization of Electric Vehicle Fast-Charging Station Demand

With increasing electric vehicle (EV) adoption, managing public fast-charging demand effectively is crucial to avoid grid strain. This study investigates the potential of using dynamic pricing schemes to address this challenge. Presented in this study is a scalable agent-based simulation framework, which is applied to a case study in Richmond, Virginia, that assumes a 50% EV adoption rate in 2040. Two pricing schemes are compared: (1) a dynamic-pricing scheme based on station utilization and (2) a dynamic-pricing scheme based on peak power at the station. These schemes are compared to two baseline scenarios: (1) unscheduled first-come, first-served and (2) scheduled with constant price. The study’s results suggest that dynamic pricing has the potential to influence EV charging behavior, inducing both spatial and temporal shifts, but does so at the cost of inducing inconvenience to EV drivers. The results suggest the peak-power dynamic pricing scheme has the potential to mitigate peak demand pressures on the grid with minimal inconvenience, offering a promising approach for sustainable EV charging infrastructure expansion.

33 - ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Framework for Identifying Building Energy Models of Localized Utility Service Areas Using Smart Meter Data

Bottom-up load modeling of buildings offers a versatile approach to simulating baseline demand and scenarios of future technology evolution and adoption at the individual building level. This capability is essential to understanding how future load shapes may change with the adoption of electric equipment and vehicles, particularly as it relates to grid planning and infrastructure investments. Traditionally, grid planning techniques have used historical load data to predict future load and infrastructure needs. However, with the anticipated rise in adoption of electrification technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, historical data become less reliable predictors of the future. By employing ResStock, a high-fidelity building stock modeling tool, we can fine-tune electrification scenarios and aggregate models to represent varying geographic resolutions of the grid system, while considering the underlying features of homes. This may enable a more accurate and responsive approach to anticipate and plan for the evolving landscape of energy demands. We present a new framework that leverages building stock energy modeling to identify building models that align with the load shapes and housing attributes of buildings with AMI data. This approach applies two model layers: (1) a classification step that identifies the presence of air conditioning, electric heating, and electric water heating, and (2) an optimization routine that identifies building energy models aligning with load profile data from advanced metering infrastructure meters. This report demonstrates one approach to deploying this framework, and presents results for three test cases that use both modeled and AMI data to assess performance. For a test case using AMI data in Fort Collins, Colorado, we observed a median monthly electricity load CV-RMSE of 16.6%, and a top ten daily heating and cooling median absolute percent error of 7.7% and 8.3%, respectively. For each AMI meter, we identify a set of potential energy models so that downstream use-cases can account for uncertainty driven by variability of baseline technologies and occupant behavior, which impact the response to electrification and energy efficiency scenarios. Our results indicate that ResStock has potential as a scalable solution for modeling residential energy demand at local grid resolutions. Its performance depends on location-specific factors, underlying building characteristics, and the level of aggregation, offering a path towards more precise and adaptive distribution grid planning for the evolving energy landscape.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗