Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “SURROGATE MODELS”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,189 records · Page 66

Simulations of flaming combustion and flaming-to-smoldering transition in wildland fire spread at flame scale

Our objective in the present study is to provide basic insights into the coupling between external-gas and solid biomass vegetation processes that control the dynamics of flame spread in wildland fire problems. Here we focus on a modeling approach that resolves processes occurring at vegetation and flame scales, i.e., the formation of flammable vapors due to the thermal degradation of the solid biomass, the subsequent combustion in ambient air, the thermal feedback to the biomass through radiative and convective heat transfer, and the possible transition from flaming combustion (taking place outside of the solid biomass) to smoldering combustion (taking place inside the solid biomass). The capability uses a multiphase combustion framework and treats external-gas processes through a Large Eddy Simulation solver and solid biomass processes through a discrete particle model. The discrete particle model adopts a one-dimensional porous medium formulation, includes descriptions of drying, thermal pyrolysis, oxidative pyrolysis, and char oxidation, as well as a description of the external-gas-to-solid-biomass diffusion of oxygen mass; the discrete particle model thereby provides a treatment of in-depth oxidative processes and allows the simulation of smoldering combustion. The modeling capability is applied to the simulation of fire spread across a surrogate biomass vegetation bed corresponding to a discrete array of cylindrical-shaped, vertically-oriented, pine wood sticks, characterized by a monomodal size distribution, in horizontal flat terrain and under wind-aided conditions. The numerical results demonstrate that the model can simulate successful flaming-to-smoldering transition followed by complete biomass consumption.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Development and assessment of a reactor system prognosis model with physics-guided machine learning

Autonomous control systems provide recommendations to help operators in decision-making during plant operations ranging from normal operation to accident management. An important step of autonomous control is prognosis. In nuclear engineering domain, prognosis is the process of predicting future conditions of a system or equipment based on present signs and symptoms of a fault. The prognosis model allows predicting future reactor states for possible candidate control strategies so that the outcomes can be evaluated to determine the best control strategy. The prognosis model requires representing direct relationships between the symptoms and the predictions. In nuclear engineering, computational simulations are approximate representations of the operation of the real system. However, prognosis with computational simulations requires high computation power and time due to possible large number of scenarios. Necessary computation resources can be reduced with machine learning (ML) approach for fast predictions by building a surrogate function using the simulation data. A critical issue is, ML models are ignorant of physical knowledge, and these models approximate statistical relationships between the system variables. This ignorance can produce results that are inconsistent with physical laws, even if an optimal result is achieved from a mathematical point of view. Physics-guided machine learning (PGML) is an approach to tackle this issue. Here, this work formulates and illustrates a framework to guide development and assessment of the ML-based prognosis model for autonomous control systems. The development of the prognosis model considers the training of a ML model which consists of optimizing many aspects of the ML approach. The assessment of the prognosis model considers training data limitations and uncertainties of the ML approach. Prognosis models with standalone ML and PGML are developed and assessed on the loss-of-flow scenario of Experimental Breeder Reactor II. The results indicate that PGML based prognosis model has the best performance compared to other prognosis models.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Cross sections for neutron-induced reactions from surrogate data: Reexamining the Weisskopf-Ewing approximation for ( n , n ' ) and ( n , 2 n ) reactions

Background: Modeling nuclear reaction networks for nuclear science applications and for simulations of astrophysical environments relies on cross section data for a vast number of reactions, many of which have never been measured. Cross sections for neutron-induced reactions on unstable nuclei are particularly scarce, since they are the most difficult to measure. Consequently, we must rely on theoretical predictions or indirect measurements to obtain the requisite reaction data. For compound nuclear reactions, the surrogate reaction method can be used to determine many cross sections of interest. Purpose: Earlier work has demonstrated that cross sections for neutron-induced fission and radiative neutron capture can be determined from a combination of surrogate reaction data and theory. For the fission case, it was shown that the Weisskopf-Ewing approximation, which significantly simplifies the implementation of the surrogate method, can be employed. Capture cross sections cannot be obtained, and require a detailed description of the surrogate reaction process. Here, we examine the validity of the Weisskopf-Ewing approximation for determining unknown (n, n') and (n, 2n) cross sections from surrogate data. Methods: Using statistical reaction calculations with realistic parametrizations, we investigate first whether the assumptions underlying the Weisskopf-Ewing approximation are valid for (n, n') and (n, 2n) reactions on representative target nuclei. We then produce simulated surrogate reaction data and assess the impact of applying the Weisskopf-Ewing approximation when extracting (n, n') and (n, 2n) cross sections in situations where the approximation is not strictly justified. Results: We find that peak cross sections can be estimated using the Weisskopf-Ewing approximation, but the shape of the (n, n') and (n, 2n) cross sections, especially for low neutron energies, cannot be reliably determined without accounting for the angular-momentum differences between the neutron-induced and surrogate reaction. Conclusions: To obtain reliable (n, n') and (n, 2n) cross sections from surrogate reaction data, a detailed description of the surrogate reaction mechanisms is required. To do so for the compound-nucleus energies and decay channels relevant to these reactions, it becomes necessary to extend current modeling capabilities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Constraining capture cross sections using proton inelastic scattering as a surrogate reaction

The surrogate reaction method is an alternative to direct measurements of compound nuclear reaction cross sections. We introduce theory tools for extracting capture cross sections from experiments that use proton inelastic scattering as a surrogate reaction mechanism. This makes it possible to constrain compound nucleus decay models which are typically the largest source of uncertainty in capture cross section calculations. This letter describes the theory developments that were used to simultaneously infer 89 Y(p, γ) and 89 Zr(n, γ) cross sections from 90 Zr(p, p′γ) surrogate measurements.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Advancing Sea Ice Predictability in E3SM with Machine Learning

Focal area(s): To improve predictions of sea ice in E3SM we propose to develop a hierarchy of data-driven models using observational and simulation data to investigate the most important Earth system drivers of sea ice variability and loss, develop surrogates that build on the reduced parameter space of important drivers, and, where appropriate, couple machine learning models with standard PDE models to capture important physical behavior at different scales. This work falls under Focal Area 2. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A general predictive methodology for fuel-mixture properties up to supercritical conditions

A predictive thermodynamic model is utilized for the calculation of fuel properties of oxymethylene dimethyl ethers (OME 3–4 ), surrogates for gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel, as well as alcohol blends with gasoline and diesel. The alcohols used for these blends are methanol, ethanol, propanol, butanol and pentanol; their mixing ratio ranges from 10 to 50% by volume. The model is based on the Perturbed-Chain Statistical Association Fluid Theory (PC-SAFT) equation of state (EoS) and Vapor Liquid Equilibrium (VLE) calculations at constant temperature, density and composition. The model includes the association term, with the assumption of two association sites (2B scheme), to enable the modeling of alcohols. The pure-component parameters are estimated based on the Group Contribution (GC) method of various sources, as well as a parametrization model specifically designed for the case of OME 3–4 . The results of the computational model for the density, vapor pressure and distillation curves at various conditions, including high-pressure, high-temperature (HPHT), are compared to experimental and computational data available in the literature. In the cases where no measurements are available for the surrogates, experimental data for the corresponding target fuel are used, taking into consideration the inherent deviation in properties between real and surrogate fuel. Overall, the results are in good agreement with the data from the literature, with the average deviation not exceeding 12% for temperature (Kelvin) on the distillation curves, 10% for density and 46% for vapor pressure and the general trend being captured successfully. The use of different pure component parameter estimation techniques can further improve the prediction quality in the cases of OME3–4 and the aviation fuel surrogate, especially for the vapor pressure, leading to an average deviation lower than 18%. These results demonstrate the predictive capabilities of the model, which extend to a wide range of fuel types and pressure/temperature conditions. Through this investigation, the present work aims to establish the limits of applicability of this thermodynamic property prediction methodology.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Mid-century climate change impacts on tornado-producing tropical cyclones

Tornadoes are a co-occurring extreme that can be produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). These tornadoes can exacerbate the loss of life and property damage caused by the TC from which they were spawned. It is uncertain how the severe weather environments of landfalling TCs may change in a future climate and how this could impact tornado activity from TCs. In this study, we investigated four TCs that made landfall in the U.S. and produced large tornado outbreaks. We performed four-member ensembles of convective-allowing (4-km resolution) regional climate model simulations representing each TC in the historical climate and a mid-twenty-first century future climate. To identify potentially tornadic storms, or TC-tornado (TCT) surrogates, we used thresholds for three-hourly maximum updraft helicity and radar reflectivity, as tornadoes are not resolved in the model. We found that the ensemble-mean number of TCT-surrogates increased substantially (56–299%) in the future, supported by increases in most-unstable convective available potential energy, surface-to-700-hPa bulk wind shear, and 0–1-km storm-relative helicity in the tornado-producing region of the TCs. On the other hand, future changes in most-unstable convective inhibition had minimal influence on future TCT-surrogates. This provides robust evidence that tornado activity from TCs may increase in the future. Furthermore, TCT-surrogate frequency between 00Z and 09Z increased for three of the four cases, suggesting enhanced tornado activity at night, when people are asleep and more likely to miss warnings. All of these factors indicate that TC-tornadoes may become more frequent and a greater hazard in the future, compounding impacts from future increases in TC winds and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantum chemically calculated Abraham parameters for quantifying and predicting polymer hydrophobicity

The leakage and accumulation of plastic in the environment is a significant and growing problem with numerous detrimental impacts and has led to a push toward the design and development of more environmentally benign materials. To this end, we have developed a quantum chemistry-based model for predicting the mobility of polymer materials from molecular structure. Hydrophobicity is used as a surrogate for mobility given that hydrophobic interactions drive much of the partitioning of contaminants in and out of various environmentally relevant compartments. To model polymer hydrophobicity, we adjusted a previously developed Quantum Chemically Calculated Abraham Parameter model to calculate Abraham parameters of small molecules from molecular structure information. The resulting model predicted the octanol-water partition coefficient (K OW ) of polymer repeating units with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.48 (log scale). Additionally, the hydrophobicity of high molecular weight polymer materials was captured through solubility parameters and Nile red staining experiments from the literature and predicted with RMSEs of 1.21 (J/cc) 0.5 and 3.42 nm, respectively. Finally, to test the environmental applicability of the model, the relative adsorption capacity of three polymers was predicted and used to unify sorption isotherms across multiple sorbates and polymer sorbents.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Impact of Radiolysis on Iodine Speciation in a Variety of Matrices

This report details the work conducted in fiscal year 2023 with the aim of providing a better understanding of the speciation of iodine in support of domestic 99 Mo production Shine who uses a sulfate matrix in their process. Laboratory experiments to study the behavior of iodine speciation were conducted using spectroscopic methods including UV-vis and Raman as well as electrochemical studies. Radiolysis occurring in solution presents a unique challenge that is largely unaddressed with thermodynamic modeling, therefore a kinetic model was developed to address these issues. The focus of the studies conducted this year used surrogate radiolytic conditions induced by hydrogen peroxide for comparison to radiolytic conditions from direct gamma irradiation and neat acid solutions. For each case a model incorporating the kinetics was used to predict iodine speciation in the defined conditions where the output was directly compared to the experimental conditions. Further modeling was conducted incorporating the process conditions that are specific to Shine with incorporation of radiolysis and gas sparging.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

ANL Design Team Analysis: Transportable Modular Reactor by Balance of Plant Elimination

HolosGen LLC is developing “Holos-Quad” a transportable gas-cooled reactor, with integral load following power conversion systems equipping subcritical power modules (SPMs), fully comprised within standard transport containers. The design eliminates the Balance of Plant (BoP) and greatly simplifies the design layout. A closed-loop full Brayton gas thermodynamic cycle converts the fuel cartridges thermal energy into electricity. This ARPA-E project utilizes advanced reactor modeling tools and manufacturing-testing of a scaled SPM equipped with a surrogate fuel cartridge to eliminate the most significant technology gaps to accelerate commercialization. The Argonne Design Team contributes to the research by demonstrating feasibility of various aspects of the Holos-Quad design by performing high-fidelity neutronic modeling, and investigating various reactivity control systems. This work consists of two main tasks: evaluation of HolosGen’s design features and alternative options study for reactivity control.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A chemical kinetic analysis of knock propensity of methanol-to-gasoline fuel

Production of low carbon gasoline-like fuels such as methanol-to-gasoline (MTG) is a promising approach to achieve rapid greenhouse gas emission reduction of the transportation sector. Despite the fact that gasoline that meets the ASTM D4814 standard for automotive spark-ignition engine fuel can be readily produced from these processes, it is unclear how the composition of MTG may affect engine performance and emissions. Here, in this paper, a surrogate for an MTG is used to numerically study the effects of gasoline composition on knock propensity and on the sensitivity of knock to thermal and fuel stratification, to oxygen dilution and to nitric oxide from exhaust gas recirculation of residual gases. Simulations were performed in ANSYS CHEMKIN-PRO using a comprehensive chemical kinetic mechanism for gasoline surrogates, and results of the MTG surrogate were compared against those of a petroleum-based regular E10 gasoline, termed PACE-20. A premium-grade MTG fuel was also formulated by adding ethanol to the MTG surrogate, and results were compared against those of four premium-grade, gasoline-like fuels representative of future alternative gasoline formulations. Surrogates and mechanism were evaluated by comparison against experimental engine data, and the model showed high accuracy at stoichiometric conditions (mean absolute error of ignition timing equal to 1.46 crank angle degrees) but larger deviations at lean conditions (mean absolute error of ignition timing equal to 5.52 crank angle degrees). Despite the fact that the MTG surrogate has a RON 1.1 units higher than that of PACE-20, it may show higher knock propensity at medium temperature conditions due to a less intense NTC behavior. MTG autoignition was more temperature- and equivalence ratio-sensitive than that of PACE20, suggesting that MTG can benefit more from naturally-occurring thermal stratification or from induced fuel stratification of the end gas to mitigate knock intensity. The sensitivity of autoignition reactivity to oxygen dilution and to NO concentration was higher for MTG than for regular gasoline at medium loads, but the opposite trend was observed at high loads due to the effect of pressure on the low-temperature chemistry of regular gasoline. Approximately 14 % vol ethanol content was required to upgrade the octane rating of MTG from regular grade to premium grade. Adding 13.6 % vol ethanol made the fuel autoignition less sensitive to both oxygen dilution and NO content (ignition time varies approx. 17 % and 50 % less with oxygen dilution and NO addition, respectively, when adding ethanol at high engine loads).

02 PETROLEUM↗

Discovering the Unknowns: A First Step

This article aims at discovering the unknown variables in the system through data analysis. The main idea is to use the time of data collection as a surrogate variable and try to identify the unknown variables by modeling gradual and sudden changes in the data. We use Gaussian process modeling and a sparse representation of the sudden changes to efficiently estimate the large number of parameters in the proposed statistical model. The method is tested on a realistic dataset generated using a one-dimensional implementation of a Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) simulation model, and encouraging results are obtained.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Approximating and incorporating model uncertainty in an inversion for seismic source functions: Preliminary results

We present preliminary work on propagating model uncertainty into the estimation of the time domain source time functions of the seismic source. Our method is based on an estimated model covariance function, which we estimate from the data. The model covariance function is then used to construct a suite of surrogate Greens functions which we use in a Monte Carlo type inversion scheme. The result is a probability density function of the six independent source time functions, each of which corresponds to an individual component of the seismic moment tensor. We compare the results of our method with those obtained using a computationally expensive finite difference Monte Carlo method and find that our new method produces results that are deficient in low frequencies. The advantage of our new method, which we term the Karhunen-Loeve Monte Carlo (KLMC) method, is that is several orders of magnitude faster than our current method, which uses a finite difference scheme to produce the suite of forward models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Learning macroscopic internal variables and history dependence from microscopic models

This paper concerns the study of history dependent phenomena in heterogeneous materials in a two-scale setting where the material is specified at a fine microscopic scale of heterogeneities that is much smaller than the coarse macroscopic scale of application. Here, we specifically study a polycrystalline medium where each grain is governed by crystal plasticity while the solid is subjected to macroscopic dynamic loads. The theory of homogenization allows us to solve the macroscale problem directly with a constitutive relation that is defined implicitly by the solution of the microscale problem. However, the homogenization leads to a highly complex history dependence at the macroscale, one that can be quite different from that at the microscale. In this paper, we examine the use of machine-learning, and especially deep neural networks, to harness data generated by repeatedly solving the finer scale model to: (i) gain insights into the history dependence and the macroscopic internal variables that govern the overall response; and (ii) to create a computationally efficient surrogate of its solution operator, that can directly be used at the coarser scale with no further modeling. We do so by introducing a recurrent neural operator (RNO), and show that: (i) the architecture and the learned internal variables can provide insight into the physics of the macroscopic problem; and (ii) that the RNO can provide multiscale, specifically FE 2 , accuracy at a cost comparable to a conventional empirical constitutive relation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effect of sample size on the maximum value distribution of fatigue driving forces in metals and alloys

An analytical framework is presented to predict the effects of sample size on the maximum value distribution (MVD) of the driving forces for fatigue crack formation in metals and alloys. The distribution of the maximum driving force for fatigue crack formation over the domain follows the generalized extreme value theory in the limit as the domain size increases to infinity. Here, a simulation-based analysis of microstructure influences on fatigue resistance for polycrystalline metals and alloys is very costly, and reaching those limits is intractable. This work models the MVD of Fatigue Indicator Parameters (FIPs), which serve as surrogate measures for the driving force for fatigue crack formation, at finite sample sizes prior to their convergence to a limiting extreme value distribution. Large-scale crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) simulations of FCC Al 7075-T6 with microstructure realizations of various sizes are incorporated to calibrate and evaluate the developed framework, and a total of ∼6.5 million grains of Al 7075-T6 are examined. The calibrated analytical solution agrees well with the brute force Monte Carlo simulation results extracted from the CPFE simulations. Furthermore, the developed formulation can predict the MVD of FIPs for different sample sizes using a size-dependent parameter, and it is capable of accurately extrapolating the MVD of FIPs for much larger microstructure sample sizes than the size used for its calibration.

Crystal plasticity↗

Assessment of various tar and soot treatment methods and a priori analysis of the steady laminar flamelet model for use in coal combustion simulation

Soot formed in the fuel-rich regions of coal flames is known to have a significant impact on the radiative heat transfer characteristics of the flame. It is therefore important to account for the effect of soot radiation when simulating coal combustion systems. Several recent coal combustion studies have used acetylene as a surrogate for devolatilized tar and neglect soot formation altogether, while others have utilized empirical models for tar and soot or even chemical mechanisms which include tar and soot as species. In this work, we investigate several methods of treating coal-derived tar and soot and the impact each treatment has on predicted furnace temperature, particle mass loss, and other quantities of interest. Furthermore, we perform a priori comparisons of simulation results to calculations from a steady laminar flamelet model in order to assess the accuracy of a flamelet approach for each tar and soot treatment considered. Data used as a basis for the study is generated through One-Dimensional Turbulence (ODT) simulation of a coal combustion system in which high- fidelity models are used for gas phase chemistry and devolatilization, where char combustion is neglected.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modeling DOE Standard Canister Configurations with Updated Surface Chemistry

Road-ready and final disposition packaging configurations for the advanced test reactor (ATR) fuel currently specifies storage within helium backfilled DOE sealed standard canisters. The aluminum cladding of the ATR fuel contains an oxyhydroxide layer of boehmite/bayerite that generates hydrogen when subjected to irradiation. Understanding the effect of this hydrogen buildup over time to important for long term storage considerations. Previous modeling efforts have built a coupled CFD-chemical model to simulate the temperature gas phase concentrations within the DOE sealed standard canisters. These models have coupled the temperature conditions to both the gas phase radiolysis chemistry and the surface chemistry associated with the oxyhydroxide layer. Continued experimental work has identified trends for aluminum surrogate samples with oxyhydroxide layers for tests done at higher dose rates. At low initial doses a fast generation rate of hydrogen occurs which starts to roll over to a lower generation rate as the total dose applied in increased. A previous study created a small-scale chemical model was built to replicate a mini-canister surrogate system at SRNL as well as for the smaller capsule tests performed at INL. The previous iteration of the model utilized step function for its G-values for the hydrogen generation over a 200-year period. This model makes an update to the surface chemistry to account for theorized surface chemistry reactions allowing for oxygen to remain bounded to the oxyhydroxide layer. As additional experiments continue, the kinetic fits may be adjusted to adapt to new data. Three canister configurations are modeled – the base 18-inch, 15-foot DOR standard canister with 30 ATR fuel elements, an 18-inch, 10-foot DOE standard canister with 32 ATR fuel elements and a 24-inch, 10-foot DOE standard canister with 40 ATR fuel elements. In previous reports, the primary sensitivity of the canister conditions was identified as the decay heat of the fuel and the dried condition of the fuel. Only these parameters are studied in the report. For the nominal case with dried fuel, the hydrogen generation is only about 2%, so it is even less than the flammability limit if it were exposed to oxygen. For the densely packed 18-inch case the total hydrogen concentration is only around 4% with the nominal decay heat. For the densely packed 24-inch case the total hydrogen concentration is only 2.5%, roughly 20% higher than the original packing design, and still under flammability conditions if exposed to oxygen.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Material Fracturing and Failure Simulation Datasets

Fracturing is a fundamental physics phenomena with broad relevance across multiple domains, ranging from infrastructure integrity, aerospace durability, reservoir production, and seismic events. We present a diverse dataset of simulated fracture evolution and material failure generated from two numerical solvers: the phase-field method and the combined finite-discrete element method (FDEM). These solvers differ in formulation, physical fidelity, and computational efficiency. The dataset includes five materials: PBX, anisotropic shale, tungsten, aluminum, and steel. For each, phase-field simulations span 400,000 cases: 200,000 under uniaxial tension and 200,000 under biaxial tension. The computationally expensive FDEM simulations include 90,000 split evenly among PBX, shale, and tungsten under uniaxial loading. All simulations begin with randomized initial fracture patterns. Each entry includes temporal data capturing fracture propagation dynamics. This comprehensive dataset is designed to support the development of foundational or surrogate machine learning approaches for predicting material failure. While no such models are introduced here, the dataset lays a robust foundation for advancing future research and innovation in these areas.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗