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DOE OSTI2023

Towards Improved Decision Making for the Smarter Grid: Geomagnetic Disturbance Implicit Modeling Uncertainty Quantification

Geomagnetic disturbances can greatly disrupt the power grid operation. This is caused by low-frequency changes in the earth’s magnetic field, which upon interaction with the deep earth conductivity induces a changing electric field at the earth’s surface. This in turn induces quasi-direct currents which have the potential to cause protective devices to operate, widespread damage to high-voltage transformers, or voltage collapse due to induced reactive power losses. While these impacts have been known since the 1940s, only recently have standards for GMD response been implemented. Because these standards are heavily based on models, it is important to understand when it is appropriate to make certain modeling assumptions. In this work, implicit modeling uncertainty is quantified for the purpose of enhanced decision making for disturbance impact mitigation. Considering electromagnetic models, modeling assumptions of non-uniform grounding, imbalanced operation, transformer saturation, and geomagnetically induced currents, voltage estimation values are analyzed. Statistical characteristics of modeling uncertainty are obtained by analysis of synthetically generated data. Results statistically characterize geomagnetic disturbances modeling uncertainty, providing an important tool for impact mitigation.

grid analysis↗

NASA NTRS2019

A Physical Model of Moulin Formation and Evolution

Nearly all proglacial water discharge from the present-day Greenland Ice Sheet is routed englacially via moulins. Identification of these moulins in high-resolution imagery is a frequent topic of study, but the processes controlling how and where moulins form, including on past ice sheets for which remote-sensing data are not available, remain poorly understood. Because moulins may reasonably compose approximately 10-15% of the englacial-subglacial hydrologic system, the evolution and shape of moulins can alter the timing of meltwater inputs to the bed. This evolution can impact both the form of the subglacial hydrologic system and the structure of associated geomorphological structures. Here, we develop a physical model of moulin formation and evolution to constrain the role of englacial processes in controlling the form and structure of the subglacial hydrologic system. Ice deformation within and around a moulin is both viscous and elastic, with the rate of turbulent and heat dissipation from water circulation in the moulin controlling both moulin wall melting and warming of the surrounding ice. We find moulin geometry is responsive to changes in these parameters over hours to days, indicating that diurnal and multi-day variations in surface melt can substantially alter the geometry of a moulin and the pressure-discharge relationship at the bed of the ice sheet. These results should be considered carefully when determining surface water inputs for subglacial hydrologic models. In the future, a parameter space study of these results will be combined with an analytic model to create a predictive, stochastic model of moulin and crevasse locations. This future model will be applicable to constraining the potential for surface-to-bed connections in regions where the exact ice-sheet surface morphology is not known, including ice sheets under future warming atmospheric conditions, and paleo ice sheets, where moulins created modern landforms.

Andrews, Lauren C.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A 1 km soil moisture dataset over eastern CONUS generated by assimilating SMAP data into the Noah-MP land surface model

An improved fine-scale soil moisture (SM) dataset at 1 km grid spacing, covering much of the eastern continental US, was generated by assimilating 9 km Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) SM data into the v4.0.1 Noah-MP land surface model. With 12 ensemble members, the assimilation was carried out using the ensemble Kalman filter algorithm within NASA's Land Information System. The SM analysis for 2016 was fully validated against in situ observations from four different networks and compared with four other existing datasets. Results indicate that this SM analysis surpasses other datasets in top-layer SM distribution, including a machine-learning-based product, despite all SM estimates being less heterogeneous than observed. The analysis of anomalous errors suggests that large similarity in intrinsic errors is likely due to overlapping data sources among the selected SM datasets. More detailed evaluations were performed over two geographic areas. The observations collected by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement facility in Oklahoma suggest that soil temperature and surface heat fluxes are concurrently simulated with good accuracy. Investigation into the 2016 southeastern US drought response further indicates drier conditions and higher evapotranspiration estimates compared to GLEAMv4.1. Notably, large errors are associated with grids having clay soil textures, underscoring the need for refined model treatments for specific soil types to further improve SM estimates. The dataset is publicly available on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14370563 (Tai et al., 2024).

Tai, Sheng-Lun [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

NASA NTRS1979

The response of selected terrestrial organisms to the Martian environment - A modeling study

An energy balance model has been developed to investigate how the Martian atmospheric environment could influence a community of photosynthetic microorganisms with properties similar to those of a cyanophyte (blue-green algal mat) and a lichen. Surface moisture and soil nutrients are assumed to be available. The model was developed to approximate equatorial equinox conditions and includes parameters for solar and thermal radiation, convective and conductive energy transport, and evaporative cooling. Calculations include the diurnal variation of organism temperature and transpiration and photosynthetic rates. The influences of different wind speeds and organism size and resistivity are also studied. The temperature of organisms in mats less than a few millimeters thick will not differ from the ground temperature by more than 10 K. Water loss is actually retarded at higher wind speeds, since the organism temperature is lowered, thus reducing the saturation vapor pressure. Typical photosynthetic rates lead to the production of 1 millionth to 100 billionths mole O2 per sq cm/day.

Kuhn, W. R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data

Extremes in weather and climate encompass a wide array of phenomena including tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems, snowstorms, floods, heat waves, and drought. Understanding how such extremes might change in the future requires an understanding of their past behavior including their connections to large-scale climate variability and trends. Previous studies suggest that the most robust findings concerning changes in short-term extremes are those that can be most directly (though not completely) tied to the increase in the global mean temperatures. These include the findings that (IPCC 2007): There has been a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions in recent decades, an increase in the number of warm extremes, particularly warm nights, and a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly cold nights. For North America in particular (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): There are fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades. The last 10 years have seen a lower number of severe cold waves than for any other 10-year period in the historical record that dates back to 1895. There has been a decrease in the number of frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season, particularly in the western part of North America. Other aspects of extremes such as the changes in storminess have a less clear signature of long term change, with considerable interannual, and decadal variability that can obscure any climate change signal. Nevertheless, regarding extratropical storms (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a northward shift in the tracks of strong low pressure systems (storms) in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. For North America: Regional analyses suggest that there has been a decrease in snowstorms in the South and lower Midwest of the United States, and an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Despite the progress already made, our understanding of the basic mechanisms by which extremes vary is incomplete. As noted in IPCC (2007), Incomplete global data sets and remaining model uncertainties still restrict understanding of changes in extremes and attribution of changes to causes, although understanding of changes in the intensity, frequency and risk of extremes has improved. Separating decadal and other shorter-term variability from climate change impacts on extremes requires a better understanding of the processes responsible for the changes. In particular, the physical processes linking sea surface temperature changes to regional climate changes, and a basic understanding of the inherent variability in weather extremes and how that is impacted by atmospheric circulation changes at subseasonal to decadal and longer time scales, are still inadequately understood. Given the fundamental limitations in the time span and quality of global observations, substantial progress on these issues will rely increasingly on improvements in models, with observations continuing to play a critical role, though less as a detection tool, and more as a tool for addressing physical processes, and to insure the quality of the climate models and the verisimilitude of the simulations (CCSP SAP 1.3, 2008).

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Investigating Material Behavior in Atmospheric Entry Conditions: Arc-Jet Testing Insights from Meteorite Ablation to High-Temperature Coatings.

Arc-jet testing is an indispensable tool in elucidating the complex interactions materials undergo when subjected to the extreme thermal and mechanical stresses of atmospheric entry. By replicating these harsh conditions, arc-jets enable researchers to explore critical phenomena such as ablation, melting, and spallation, generating invaluable data that informs the development of sophisticated, physics-based models. These models are pivotal not only in predicting material performance for spacecraft re-entry systems but also in assessing the threat posed by celestial bodies as they encounter Earth’s atmosphere. One of the leading facilities for such investigations is the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System (HyMETS) at NASA’s Langley Research Center. A pioneering test campaign conducted at HyMETS focused on unraveling the ablation mechanisms of an ordinary chondrite meteorite (Tamdakht H5) and a terrestrial analog (basalt). These studies unveiled distinct material behaviors: Tamdakht demonstrated a remarkably stable melt flow, with mass loss primarily driven by the volatilization of elements such as iron and sodium, whereas basalt exhibited more aggressive surface degradation due to the rapid decomposition of hydrated minerals, culminating in significant spallation and surface material ejection. Beyond meteorite analysis, HyMETS has also been integral in the exploration of advanced Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) such as Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA), a material with extensive flight heritage in missions like Stardust, Mars Science Laboratory, Mars 2020, and Osiris-REx. PICA, when coated with NuSil CV-1144-0—a polysiloxane resin designed to prevent particle shedding—undergoes a remarkable transformation upon heating. The resin pyrolyzes to form a thin, oxidation-resistant silicon oxycarbide layer that profoundly influences the material’s thermal response through a sophisticated four-stage process. Initially, the silicon oxycarbide acts as a formidable barrier, impeding reactive interactions with the PICA char and effectively suppressing surface temperature rise and material recession. However, as the heating persists, the protective layer decomposes via carbothermal reduction, exposing the underlying char, which in turn leads to a dramatic spike in surface temperature and accelerated material erosion. In the final stage, equilibrium is reached, with recession rates aligning with those of the virgin material. This intricate understanding of PICA-NuSil behavior under extreme conditions offers valuable insights, enhancing material response models and advancing the development of next-generation TPS for space exploration.

Chemistry↗

NASA NTRS1991

Reflective overcoats for radiation control surfaces

Theoretical models are developed to predict the surface properties of a coating layer composed of particles of a known size distribution, applied to an opaque substrate, such as a metal or reaction cured glass (RCG). The surface temperature attained at radiative equilibrium by an overcoated surface subject to a given heat flux is calculated. The incident radiation was assumed to exhibit the spectral distribution characteristic of a black body at different temperatures or equivalently, having different peak wavelengths, with the energy level scaled to give a range of desired surface radiative heat fluxes. This approach allows a straightforward comparison of the thernal response of a surface to incident radiation having the energy predominantly in a characteristic wavelength band and a well-defined spectral distribution. The ratio of the radiative heat flux to the total heat flux was varied, and the different geometric and material parameters of such overcoat layers were explored. The model was applied to representative surface heating rates to the Aeroasssisted Flight Experiment (AFE) and to Aeroassisted Space Transfer Vehicles (ASTVs). The predicted radiative energy flux to the surface of the AFE vehicle gives a single-point comparison of the surface temperatures attained with and without a selective-reflector overcoat on the vehicle surface. The specific objective of this work is to identify the most desirable radiative properties of an overcoat/substrate system for this environment.

White, Susan M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Relative Abundance of Soil Nutrient‐Degrading Enzyme‐Encoding Genes Across Continental US Ecoregions

Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns in the relative abundance of soil extracellular enzyme‐encoding genes is critical for predicting microbial responses to environmental change and their potential role in nutrient cycling. Yet, integrating novel metagenomic observations with spatiotemporal environmental gradients to infer regional patterns and future trajectories has remained unclear. To address this gap, we applied a machine learning (ML) approach, integrating soil metagenomic data with environmental variables—soil properties, topography, vegetation, and climate—to predict the relative abundance of enzyme‐encoding genes for soil carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) across surface soils of the continental United States. We assessed potential responses under future emission scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) by comparing a baseline (1985–2014) to a future period (2071–2100). The ML model explained 57%–63% of baseline variation. Precipitation was identified as the most influential factor for the relative abundance of C‐ and N‐degrading enzyme‐encoding genes, while slope length, representing horizontal distance that water can travel downslope, was the primary driver for P‐degrading enzyme‐encoding genes abundance. Projections revealed spatially heterogeneous shifts across continental US ecoregions: the relative abundance of C‐ and N‐degrading enzyme‐encoding genes decreased in wetter ecoregions and increased in drier ecoregions under future climate, while P‐degrading enzyme‐encoding genes abundance decreased significantly in semiarid and Mediterranean ecoregions. This study demonstrates the utility of metagenomic data for mapping soil genetic potential and predicting its regional response to environmental change, to inform ecosystem management strategies.

extracellular enzyme-encoding genes↗

DOE OSTI2023

Towards a predictive, physics-based friction model for the dynamics of jointed structures

Bolted connections are ubiquitous in mechanical designs and pose a significant challenge to understanding and predicting the vibration response of assembled structures. The present paper develops a physics-based rough contact model of the frictional interactions within a joint. This model sums over the probable interactions of asperities – defined as locally maximum surface features – to determine the contact forces. Here, the tangential contact forces vary smoothly between sticking and slipping and allow the model to better capture the qualitative trends of experimental amplitude dependent frequency and damping than previous studies. Furthermore, the novel model is generalized to allow for arbitrarily varying normal pressure including potential separation to better represent the interfacial dynamics. This includes developing a new, computationally tractable approximation to the analytical Mindlin partial slip solution for tangential loading of contacting spheres. Further, the results highlight the importance of accurately characterizing the as-built topology of the interface, the plastic behavior of the contacting asperities, the relevant length scale of asperities, and the eccentricity of asperities. A predictive friction coefficient based on plasticity provides a poor match to experiments, so fitting the friction coefficient is also considered. Numerical results are compared to experiments on the Brake-Reuß Beam to assess the predictive potential of the models. While blind predictions over-predict the slip limit, the current model presents a significant improvement in physics-based modeling and highlights areas for ongoing research.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis Persistence through Inhibition of the Trehalose Catalytic Shift

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), is the leading cause of death worldwide by infectious disease. Treatment of Mtb infection requires a six-month course of multiple antibiotics, an extremely challenging regimen necessitated by Mtb’s ability to form drug-tolerant persister cells. Mtb persister formation is dependent on the trehalose catalytic shift, a stress-responsive metabolic remodeling mechanism in which the disaccharide trehalose is liberated from cell surface glycolipids and repurposed as an internal carbon source to meet energy and redox demands. Here, using a biofilm-persister model, metabolomics, and cryo-electron microscopy (EM), we found that azidodeoxy- and aminodeoxy-d-trehalose analogues block the Mtb trehalose catalytic shift through inhibition of trehalose synthase TreS (Rv0126), which catalyzes the isomerization of trehalose to maltose. Out of a focused eight-member compound panel constructed by chemoenzymatic synthesis, the natural product 2-trehalosamine exhibited the highest potency and significantly potentiated first- and second-line TB drugs in broth culture and macrophage infection assays. We also report the first structure of TreS bound to a substrate analogue inhibitor, obtained via cryo-EM, which revealed conformational changes likely essential for catalysis and inhibitor binding that can potentially be exploited for future therapeutic development. Our results demonstrate that inhibition of the trehalose catalytic shift is a viable strategy to target Mtb persisters and advance trehalose analogues as tools and potential adjunctive therapeutics for investigating and targeting mycobacterial persistence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

An improved representation of the relationship between photosynthesis and stomatal conductance leads to more stable estimation of conductance parameters and improves the goodness-of-fit across diverse data sets

Stomata play a central role in surface-atmosphere exchange by controlling the flux of water and CO 2 between the leaf and the atmosphere. Representation of stomatal conductance (g sw ) is therefore an essential component of models that seek to simulate water and CO 2 exchange in plants and ecosystems. For given environmental conditions at the leaf surface (CO 2 concentration and vapor pressure deficit or relative humidity), models typically assume a linear relationship between g sw and photosynthetic CO 2 assimilation (A). However, measurement of leaf-level g sw response curves to changes in A are rare, particularly in the tropics, resulting in only limited data to evaluate this key assumption. Here, we measured the response of g sw and A to irradiance in six tropical species at different leaf phenological stages. We showed that the relationship between g sw and A was not linear, challenging the key assumption upon which optimality theory is based-that the marginal cost of water gain is constant. Our data showed that increasing A resulted in a small increase in g sw at low irradiance, but a much larger increase at high irradiance. We reformulated the popular Unified Stomatal Optimization (USO) model to account for this phenomenon and to enable consistent estimation of the key conductance parameters g 0 and g 1 . Our modification of the USO model improved the goodness-of-fit and reduced bias, enabling robust estimation of conductance parameters at any irradiance. In addition, our modification revealed previously undetectable relationships between the stomatal slope parameter g 1 and other leaf traits. We also observed nonlinear behavior between A and g sw in independent datasets that included data collected from attached and detached leaves, and from plants grown at elevated CO 2 concentration. We propose that this empirical modification of the USO model can improve the measurement of g sw parameters and the estimation of plant and ecosystem-scale water and CO 2 fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1998

Development of Curved-Plate Elements for the Exact Buckling Analysis of Composite Plate Assemblies Including Transverse Shear Effects

The analytical formulation of curved-plate non-linear equilibrium equations that include transverse-shear-deformation effects is presented. A unified set of non-linear strains that contains terms from both physical and tensorial strain measures is used. Using several simplifying assumptions, linearized, stability equations are derived that describe the response of the plate just after bifurcation buckling occurs. These equations are then modified to allow the plate reference surface to be located a distance z(c), from the centroid surface which is convenient for modeling stiffened-plate assemblies. The implementation of the new theory into the VICONOPT buckling and vibration analysis and optimum design program code is described. Either classical plate theory (CPT) or first-order shear-deformation plate theory (SDPT) may be selected in VICONOPT. Comparisons of numerical results for several example problems with different loading states are made. Results from the new curved-plate analysis compare well with closed-form solution results and with results from known example problems in the literature. Finally, a design-optimization study of two different cylindrical shells subject to uniform axial compression is presented.

McGowan, David M.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Nocturnal Propagating Thunderstorms May Favor Urban "Hot-Spots": A Model-Based Study over Minneapolis

High-resolution WRF model sensitivity experiments are carried out (with and without urban land cover) to study urban impacts on nocturnal propagating thunderstorms over the city of Minneapolis. It is found that the storm spatial characteristics, especially the position of the storm cell, are appreciably altered by the presence of urban land cover. The most robust urban instability during stormy conditions is the enhanced surface convergence due to increased frictional drag. No urban impact is visible on the rainfall intensity simulated by the model. The frictional convergence, aided by the nocturnal Urban Heat Island (UHI), appears to be responsible for attracting propagating storms towards the urban center. Advanced modeling experiments are needed to quantify the mechanical and thermal influence along with similar studies in other cities to further investigate the urban impact on the frequency and trajectory of nocturnal propagating storms.

nocturnal thunderstorms↗

NASA NTRS2022

Lithium-ion Battery Strain Gauge Monitoring and Depth of Discharge Estimation

Lithium-ion battery diagnostics and prognostics rely on measurements of electrical impedance, capacity, and voltage to infer the internal state of the battery. Mechanical changes to the cell structure represent an additional measure of the battery’s state because these changes are related to the overall battery health. As lithium-ion batteries are charged and discharged, lithium ions are inserted or removed from the anode and cathode, a process called intercalation and de-intercalation. As lithium ions intercalate and de-intercalate, they can cause changes to the lattice of the electrode particles, resulting in volumetric changes. These volumetric changes cause mechanical stresses and strains on the lithium-ion battery electrodes, and subsequently, the whole cell’s thickness varies as it is charged and discharged. This paper presents a study on the use of surface-mounted strain gauges for in-situ measurement of structural changes to lithium-ion batteries, along with a characterization of the unit-to-unit differences in strain response. A neural network modeling structure is then used to predict the battery’s depth of discharge under dynamic discharge conditions.

Lithium-ion batteries, depth of discharge, strain ↗

NASA NTRS2021

PBL Height from AIRS, GPS RO, and MERRA-2 Products in NASA GES DISC and Their 10 Year Seasonal Mean Intercomparison

Within the planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface forcing response, drag, turbulence, and vertical mixing are important processes and play a more critical role here than in the overlying “free atmosphere”. The PBL Height (PBLH) is an important parameter in climate models, weather forecasts, and air quality prediction. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) provides data processing, archiving, and distribution services for numerous Earth science products. PBLH is a parameter in three products served by GES DISC, which are from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), the Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) experiment, and the NASA reanalysis product Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications – 2 (MERRA-2). These products have different spatial and temporal resolutions and coverages, and their PBLH definitions are also different. To better serve the PBL research community, we have summarized the specifications of these products. A ten-year seasonal mean intercomparison is also conducted to provide further guidance to users. The intercomparison results show that MERRA-2 has a much shallower PBL than AIRS and GPS RO. An experimental study indicates the different PBLH definition in MERRA-2 caused smaller values of PBLH. The improvement of the water vapor retrieval in AIRS version 7 over version 6 results in the version 7 PBLH agreeing better with GPS RO and MERRA-2 than version 6, especially near the equator and low latitudes.

Feng Ding↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensitivity Study of Dust-Induced Surface Erosion during Martian Planetary Entry

Large, global dust storms that periodically form in the Martian atmosphere pose a threat to NASA missions due to a lack of understanding of how they will affect the heat loading and mass loss of the entry vehicle’s thermal protection system (TPS). Previous studies have laid out viable methodologies for estimating the amount of surface recession from a significant dust storm, but rely on underlying modeling assumptions that are difficult to validate. The current work utilizes the DUST library, which is a Lagrangian particle solver under development at NASA Ames Research Center. DUST includes variable-fidelity fluid-particle coupling and has been tested for a wide range of problem types. The DUST library is used in conjunction with the US3D Naiver-Stokes solver. Using these tools, a sensitivity study is performed to determine the influence of the underlying dust modeling (drag coefficient, Nusselt number, and size distribution) on the surface erosion through a hypersonic Martian entry trajectory. The surface erosion was found to be insensitive to the drag and heating models, but was affected significantly by the size distributions parameters. The total recession was comparable to the thermochemical ablation predicted by material response codes, but the lack of a particle erosion model for PICA limits the predictive capability of the current work.

Thermal Protection Systems↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of Mars 2020 Forebody Heating Predictions with Coupled Material Response

The objective of this work was to assess the impact of flow field - material response cou-pling on reproducing temperatures within the Mars 2020 forebody thermal protection system.Both equilibrium and nonequilibrium coupled material response approaches were considered.Turbulent transition estimates were included in the flow field modeling based on transitiontimes inferred from flight measurements. A coupled equilibrium ablation model was foundto overpredict the in-depth temperatures near the surface by over 100 K in the stagnationregion and by about 200 K near the leeside shoulder, which was subject to turbulent heatingaugmentation. For nonequilibrium ablation, two finite rate surface chemistry models wereused to model the chemical process on the vehicle surface. The first was a model consistingof N2catalysis and CO2recombination model, and the second was a model consisting of onlyN2and O2catalysis. Near the stagnation point, the N2and CO2model was found to be withinabout 10 K from the peak in-depth temperature near the surface; however, overpredictionof the in-depth temperatures was observed early in the trajectory, similar to the equilibriumablation model. The N2and O2catalysis model was found to significantly underpredict nearsurface in-depth temperatures.

Thomas K West↗

NASA NTRS1989

Thermal modelling of various thermal barrier coatings in a high heat flux rocket engine

Traditional Air Plasma Sprayed (APS) ZrO2-Y2O3 Thermal Barrier Coatings (TBC's) and Low Pressure Plasma Sprayed (LPPS) ZrO2-Y2O3/Ni-Cr-Al-Y cermet coatings were tested in a H2/O2 rocked engine. The traditional ZrO2-Y2O3 (TBC's) showed considerable metal temperature reductions during testing in the hydrogen-rich environment. A thermal model was developed to predict the thermal response of the tubes with the various coatings. Good agreement was observed between predicted temperatures and measured temperatures at the inner wall of the tube and in the metal near the coating/metal interface. The thermal model was also used to examine the effect of the differences in the reported values of the thermal conductivity of plasma sprayed ZrO2-Y2O3 ceramic coatings, the effect of 100 micron (0.004 in.) thick metallic bond coat, the effect of tangential heat transfer around the tube, and the effect or radiation from the surface of the ceramic coating. It was shown that for the short duration testing in the rocket engine, the most important of these considerations was the effect of the uncertainty in the thermal conductivity of temperatures (greater than 100 C) predicted in the tube. The thermal model was also used to predict the thermal response of the coated rod in order to quantify the difference in the metal temperatures between the two substrate geometries and to explain the previously-observed increased life of coatings on rods over that on tubes. A thermal model was also developed to predict heat transfer to the leading edge of High Pressure Fuel Turbopump (HPFTP) blades during start-up of the space shuttle main engines. The ability of various TBC's to reduce metal temperatures during the two thermal excursions occurring on start-up was predicted. Temperature reductions of 150 to 470 C were predicted for 165 micron (0.0065 in.) coatings for the greater of the two thermal excursions.

Nesbitt, James A.↗