Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Predictive modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,189 records · Page 66
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Special Issue on Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale System Design and Simulation

The importance of uncertainty has been recognized in various modeling, simulation, and analysis applications, where inherent assumptions and simplifications affect the accuracy of model predictions for physical phenomena. As model predictions are now heavily relied upon for simulation-based system design, which includes new materials, vehicles, mechanical and civil structures, and even new drugs, wrong model predictions could potentially cause catastrophic consequences. Therefore, uncertainty and associated risks due to model errors should be quantified to support robust systems engineering.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predictive multiscale modeling for Unidirectional Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymers

This paper presents a predictive multiscale modeling scheme for Unidirectional (UD) Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymers (CFRP). A bottom-up modeling procedure is discussed for predicting the performance of UD structures. UD material responses are computed from high fidelity Representative Volume Elements (RVEs). A data-driven Reduced Order Modeling approach compresses RVEs into Reduced Order Models so material responses can be computed in a concurrent fashion along with the structural level simulation. The approach presented in this paper is validated against experimental data and is believed to provide design guidance for future fiber reinforced polymers development.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2020

Spatial validation reveals poor predictive performance of large-scale ecological mapping models

Mapping aboveground forest biomass is central for assessing the global carbon balance. However, current large-scale maps show strong disparities, despite good validation statistics of their underlying models. Here, we attribute this contradiction to a flaw in the validation methods, which ignore spatial autocorrelation (SAC) in data, leading to overoptimistic assessment of model predictive power. To illustrate this issue, we reproduce the approach of large-scale mapping studies using a massive forest inventory dataset of 11.8 million trees in central Africa to train and validate a random forest model based on multispectral and environmental variables. A standard nonspatial validation method suggests that the model predicts more than half of the forest biomass variation, while spatial validation methods accounting for SAC reveal quasi-null predictive power. This study underscores how a common practice in big data mapping studies shows an apparent high predictive power, even when predictors have poor relationships with the ecological variable of interest, thus possibly leading to erroneous maps and interpretations.

biomass↗
DOE OSTI2017

Development of a Mechanistic Model for Predicting Sliding Vapor Bubble Growth

A new mechanistic model for predicting the growth of sliding vapor bubble in subcooled boiling flows has been developed. This model employs a physical base that the fundamental mechanisms applied to the bubble growth at a nucleation site can also be applied to the growth of sliding bubble. The heat transfer mechanisms considered are microlayer evaporation, evaporation of superheated liquid, and condensation. Modifications were made to the physical assumptions/reasoning applied to the existing growth models to reflect the intrinsic physics associated with the growth of sliding bubble. The present model has been successfully validated against a broad set of subcooled flow boiling data generated by three separate research groups using different working fluids and heater surfaces. The physical dependency of bubble growth during sliding on the relevant flow boiling parameters (i.e., mass flux, wall superheat, and subcooling level) observed in these experiments was well reproduced by the present model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2013

Model Verification and Validation Concepts for a Probabilistic Fracture Assessment Model to Predict Cracking of Knife Edge Seals in the Space Shuttle Main Engine High Pressure Oxidizer

Physics-based models are routinely used to predict the performance of engineered systems to make decisions such as when to retire system components, how to extend the life of an aging system, or if a new design will be safe or available. Model verification and validation (V&V) is a process to establish credibility in model predictions. Ideally, carefully controlled validation experiments will be designed and performed to validate models or submodels. In reality, time and cost constraints limit experiments and even model development. This paper describes elements of model V&V during the development and application of a probabilistic fracture assessment model to predict cracking in space shuttle main engine high-pressure oxidizer turbopump knife-edge seals. The objective of this effort was to assess the probability of initiating and growing a crack to a specified failure length in specific flight units for different usage and inspection scenarios. The probabilistic fracture assessment model developed in this investigation combined a series of submodels describing the usage, temperature history, flutter tendencies, tooth stresses and numbers of cycles, fatigue cracking, nondestructive inspection, and finally the probability of failure. The analysis accounted for unit-to-unit variations in temperature, flutter limit state, flutter stress magnitude, and fatigue life properties. The investigation focused on the calculation of relative risk rather than absolute risk between the usage scenarios. Verification predictions were first performed for three units with known usage and cracking histories to establish credibility in the model predictions. Then, numerous predictions were performed for an assortment of operating units that had flown recently or that were projected for future flights. Calculations were performed using two NASA-developed software tools: NESSUS(Registered Trademark) for the probabilistic analysis, and NASGRO(Registered Trademark) for the fracture mechanics analysis. The goal of these predictions was to provide additional information to guide decisions on the potential of reusing existing and installed units prior to the new design certification.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Chemical composition based machine learning model to predict defect formation in additive manufacturing

With a goal of exploiting additive manufacturing to improve the manufacturing of existing reactor materials, we developed a chemical composition-based machine learning model to predict the printability of any given alloy in laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) using experimental data from peer-reviewed literature. We defined printability as the ability to avoid defects like cracking, balling, porosity, and lack of fusion, that are caused by thermal stresses (during solidification or liquation), molten pool disintegration into disconnected small beads or lack of heat input respectively. Our models predict the tendency of balling defect formation and porosity percentage for a given composition, under a given set of processing conditions. To predict the likelihood of balling defect, three models: a random forest classifier, a gradient boost regressor and a neural network were trained on a dataset containing both traditional alloys and high entropy alloys. The neural network model showed the highest accuracy of 92.3 % in predicting the balling defect formation. A random forest regressor, gradient boost regressor and neural network were trained and tested on a dataset of various alloys to predict porosity. The random forest regressor showed the best predictions with an R 2 score of 0.97. The models also revealed the relative importance of the input descriptors on defect-formation tendency. Of particular significance was the identification of carbon as an important element in determining the occurrence of balling and percent porosity in alloys like steel, as well as being moderately important to the percentage porosity in other alloys as well as steel. Manganese was also identified as a key descriptor for the percentage of porosity in steel and other alloys. Manganese’s low thermal conductivity and consistent presence in the dataset is the likely cause for its contribution. Carbon’s role is attributable to its relatively high specific heat and high melting temperature. In conclusion, our model serves as a swift, chemistry-based tool to design experiments and find modified compositions better suited for additive manufacturing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Performance and power modeling and prediction using MuMMI and 10 machine learning methods

Energy-efficient scientific applications require insight into how high performance computing system features impact the applications' power and performance. This insight can result from the development of performance and power models. Here, in this article, we use the modeling and prediction tool MuMMI (Multiple Metrics Modeling Infrastructure) and 10 machine learning methods to model and predict performance and power consumption and compare their prediction error rates. We use an algorithm-based fault-tolerant linear algebra code and a multilevel checkpointing fault-tolerant heat distribution code to conduct our modeling and prediction study on the Cray XC40 Theta and IBM BG/Q Mira at Argonne National Laboratory and the Intel Haswell cluster Shepard at Sandia National Laboratories. Our experimental results show that the prediction error rates in performance and power using MuMMI are less than 10% for most cases. By utilizing the models for runtime, node power, CPU power, and memory power, we identify the most significant performance counters for potential application optimizations, and we predict theoretical outcomes of the optimizations. Based on two collected datasets, we analyze and compare the prediction accuracy in performance and power consumption using MuMMI and 10 machine learning methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Building a Wide-Area File Transfer Performance Predictor: An Empirical Study

Wide-area data transfer is central to geographically distributed scientific workflows. Faster delivery of data is important for these workflows. Predictability is equally (or even more) important. With the goal of providing a reasonably accurate estimate of data transfer time to improve resource allocation & scheduling for workflows and enable end-to-end data transfer optimization, we apply machine learning methods to develop predictive models for data transfer times over a variety of wide area networks. To build and evaluate these models, we use 201,388 transfers, involving 759 million files totaling 9 PB transferred, over 115 heavily used source-destination pairs (“edges”) between 135 unique endpoints. We evaluate the models for different retraining frequencies and different window size of history data. In the best case, the resulting models have a median prediction error of ≤21% for 50% of the edges, and ≤32% for 75% of the edges. We present a detailed analysis of these results that provides insights into the cause of some of the high errors. We envision that the performance predictor will be informative for scheduling geo-distributed workflows. The insights also suggest obvious directions for both further analysis and transfer service optimization.

Liu, Zhengchun↗
NASA NTRS1977

Remote sensing inputs to landscape models which predict future spatial land use patterns for hydrologic models

A tropical forest area of Northern Thailand provided a test case of the application of the approach in more natural surroundings. Remote sensing imagery subjected to proper computer analysis has been shown to be a very useful means of collecting spatial data for the science of hydrology. Remote sensing products provide direct input to hydrologic models and practical data bases for planning large and small-scale hydrologic developments. Combining the available remote sensing imagery together with available map information in the landscape model provides a basis for substantial improvements in these applications.

Miller, L. D.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Co-Evolving Climate Models under Uncertainty to Improve Predictive Skill

Focal Area: Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models Science Challenge: Advances in modeling of climate and improved observational capabilities have led to great improvements in understanding large-scale historical climate effects. It however remains a challenge to reliably predict the risk of fine-scale regional climate events on human systems even as such risks are on the rise because warmer and wetter climates are more prone to hydrometeorological extremes,

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forward and inverse predictive transient models of TREAT using surrogate reactivity models

In this work, we present two novel approaches for predicting the power evolution and control rod height of the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) to support experiment modeling; specifically, transient analysis of the NASA-sponsored Sirius series of experiments. These approaches utilize steady-state Monte Carlo model, point kinetics model, and surrogate models to predict power evolution and control rod axial position during transient experiments. Both approaches were tested and validated against several Sirius experiments that were performed in the TREAT facility at different power levels. The validation test results show very good agreement with the experimental data, and the models were able to accurately predict the power evolution and the axial control rod position with an average error within 3.0%. Finally, this indicates that these approaches will help the reactor engineering team of the TREAT facility in preparing and predicting the power and temperature of the experiment.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1982

Model atmospheres, predicted spectra, and colors

Theoretical models of stellar atmospheres and the process of forming a spectrum are reviewed with particular reference to the spectra of B stars. In the case of classical models the stellar atmosphere is though to consist of plane parallel layers of gas in which radiative and hydrostatic equilibrium exists. No radiative energy is lost or gained in the model atmosphere, but the detailed shape of the spectrum is changed as a result of the interactions with the ionized gas. Predicted line spectra using statistical equilibrium local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE), and non-LTE physics are compared and the determination of abundances is discussed. The limitations of classical modeling are examined. Models developed to demonstrate what motions in the upper atmosphere will do to the spectrum and to explore the effects of using geometries different from plane parallel layer are reviewed. In particular the problem of radiative transfer is addressed.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2021

A newly proposed isotherm model to predict Cs exchange with crystalline silicotitanate in tank waste simulants

The Zheng Anthony Miller (ZAM) computer model, a multicomponent ion exchange model used to predict the exchange of Group I metals onto crystalline silicotitanate (CST), has historically been used to predict Cs distribution coefficients from Hanford and Savannah River Site (SRS) tank waste simulants. Comparison of experimentally determined Cs distribution coefficients from tank waste simulants with ZAM isotherm model predictions indicate overprediction of Cs and K distribution coefficients for simple and complex simulants with the engineered form of CST. Additionally, recent changes in chemical composition/manufacturing of IONSIV TM R9140-B have resulted in increased Cs capacity from high-salt, highly alkaline solutions. Here, this work served to assess different isotherm models and refine equilibrium parameters to develop a model that can be applied to Hanford and SRS tank waste Cs removal efforts. Toward this goal, the Campbell Westesen Peterson (CWP) model was developed. This model utilized the experimentally determined Cs capacity, and simplified ZAM equilibria expressions to include only the binary substitution of Cs + or K + on the Na + sites. Equilibrium constants for these equations were refined using experimentally determined distribution coefficients. Overall, the CWP model significantly improved our ability to predict both Cs and K loading capacity from complex matrices.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-Enabled Predictive Control for Building HVAC Systems

Model predictive control is widely used as a control technology for the computation of optimal control inputs of building heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. However, both the benefits and widespread adoption of model predictive control (MPC) are hindered by the effort of model creation, calibration, and accuracy of the predictions. In this paper, we apply the data-enabled predictive control (DeePC) algorithm for designing controls for building HVAC systems. The algorithm solely depends on input/output data from the system to predict future state trajectories without the need for system identification. The algorithm relies on the idea that a vector space of all input–output trajectories of a discrete-time linear time-invariant (LTI) system is spanned by time-shifts of a single measured trajectory, given the input signal is persistently exciting. Closed-loop simulations using EnergyPlus are performed to demonstrate the approach. The simulated building modeled in EnergyPlus is a modified commercial large office prototype building served by an air handling unit-variable air volume HVAC system. Temperature setpoints of zones are used as control variables to minimize the HVAC energy cost of the building considering a time-of-use electricity rate structure. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted to gain insights into the effect of parameter tuning on DeePC performance. Simulation results are used to illustrate the performance of the algorithm and compare the algorithm with model-based MPC and occupancy-based setpoint controller. Overall, DeePC achieves similar performance compared to MPC for lower engineering effort.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2000

Gamma-ray Pulsars: Models and Predictions

Pulsed emission from gamma-ray pulsars originates inside the magnetosphere, from radiation by charged particles accelerated near the magnetic poles or in the outer gaps. In polar cap models, the high energy spectrum is cut off by magnetic pair production above an energy that is, dependent on the local magnetic field strength. While most young pulsars with surface fields in the range B = 10(exp 12) - 10(exp 13) G are expected to have high energy cutoffs around several GeV, the gamma-ray spectra of old pulsars having lower surface fields may extend to 50 GeV. Although the gamma-ray emission of older pulsars is weaker, detecting pulsed emission at high energies from nearby sources would be an important confirmation of polar cap models. Outer gap models predict more gradual high-energy turnovers of the primary curvature emission around 10 GeV, but also predict an inverse Compton component extending to TeV energies. Detection of pulsed TeV emission, which would not survive attenuation at the polar caps, is thus an important test of outer gap models. Next-generation gamma-ray telescopes sensitive to GeV-TeV emission will provide critical tests of pulsar acceleration and emission mechanisms.

Harding Alice K.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Zonal-Based Emission Source Term Model for Predicting Particulate Emission Factors in Wildfire Simulations

A physics/chemistry-based numerical model for predicting the emission of fine particles from wildfires is proposed. This model implements the fundamental mechanisms of soot formation in a combustion environment: soot nucleation, surface growth, agglomeration, oxidation, and particle fragmentation. These mechanisms occur on a scale too fine for the discretization of most wildfire models, which need to simulate landscape-scale dynamics. As a result this model implements a zonal approach, where the computed soot particle distribution is partitioned into process zones within a single resolved grid cell. These process zones include: an inception zone (for nucleation), a heating zone (for coagulation, surface growth, and fragmentation), a reaction zone (for oxidation), and a quenched zone (for atmospheric processes). Governing mechanisms are applied to the appropriate zones to predict total particle growth and emission. Additionally, the proposed model is implemented into HIGRAD/FIRETEC, a physics-based wildfire simulation code which couples interactions between fire, fuels, atmosphere, and topography on a landscape scale. Fire simulations among grasslands and conifer forests are performed and compared against experimental data for emission factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

A comparison of radiative transfer models for predicting the microwave emission from soils

Noncoherent and coherent numerical models for predicting emission from soils are compared. Coherent models use the boundary conditions on the electric fields across the layer boundaries to calculate the radiation intensity, and noncoherent models consider radiation intensities directly. Interference may cause different results in the two approaches when coupling between soil layers in coherent models causes greater soil moisture sampling depths. Calculations performed at frequencies of 1.4 and 19.4 GHz show little difference between the models at 19.4 GHz, although differences are apparent at the lower frequency. A definition for an effective emissivity is also given for when a nonuniform temperature profile is present, and measurements made from a tower show good agreement with calculations from the coherent model.

Schmugge, T. J.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Mathematical Analysis of the Solidification Behavior of Plain Steel Based on Solute- and Heat-Transfer Equations in the Liquid–Solid Zone

An analytical approximate solution to non-linear solute- and heat-transfer equations in the unsteady-state mushy zone of Fe-C plain steel has been obtained, assuming a linear relationship between the solid fraction and the temperature of the mushy zone. The heat transfer equations for both the solid and liquid zone along with the boundary conditions have been linked with the equations to solve the whole equations. The model predictions (e.g., the solidification constants and the effective partition ratio) agree with the generally accepted values and with a separately performed numerical analysis. The solidus temperature predicted by the model is in the intermediate range of the reported formulas. The model and Neuman’s solution are consistent in the low carbon range. A conventional numerical heat analysis (i.e., an equivalent specific heat method using the solidus temperature predicted by the model) is consistent with the model predictions for Fe-C plain steels. The model presented herein simplifies the computations to solve the solute- and heat-transfer simultaneous equations while searching for a solidus temperature as a part of the solution. Thus, this model can reduce the complexity of analyses considering the heat- and solute-transfer phenomena in the mushy zone.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗