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At least 1,189 records · Page 66

Machine Learning Analysis of Impact of Western US Fires on Central US Hailstorms

Fires, including wildfires, harm air quality and essential public services like transportation, communication, and utilities. These fires can also influence atmospheric conditions, including temperature and aerosols, potentially affecting severe convective storms. Here, we investigate the remote impacts of fires in the western United States (WUS) on the occurrence of large hail (size: $\geqslant$ 2.54 cm) in the central US (CUS) over the 20-year period of 2001–20 using the machine learning (ML), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) methods. The developed RF and XGB models demonstrate high accuracy (> 90%) and F1 scores of up to 0.78 in predicting large hail occurrences when WUS fires and CUS hailstorms coincide, particularly in four states (Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas). The key contributing variables identified from both ML models include the meteorological variables in the fire region (temperature and moisture), the westerly wind over the plume transport path, and the fire features (i.e., the maximum fire power and burned area). Importantly, the results confirm a linkage between WUS fires and severe weather in the CUS, corroborating the findings of our previous modeling study conducted on case simulations with a detailed physics model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Brief history of agricultural systems modeling

Agricultural systems science generates knowledge that allows researchers to consider complex problems or take informed agricultural decisions. The rich history of this science exemplifies the diversity of systems and scales over which they operate and have been studied. Modeling, an essential tool in agricultural systems science, has been accomplished by scientists from a wide range of disciplines, who have contributed concepts and tools over more than six decades. As agricultural scientists now consider the "next generation" models, data, and knowledge products needed to meet the increasingly complex systems problems faced by society, it is important to take stock of this history and its lessons to ensure that we avoid re-invention and strive to consider all dimensions of associated challenges. To this end, we summarize here the history of agricultural systems modeling and identify lessons learned that can help guide the design and development of next generation of agricultural system tools and methods. A number of past events combined with overall technological progress in other fields have strongly contributed to the evolution of agricultural system modeling, including development of process-based bio-physical models of crops and livestock, statistical models based on historical observations, and economic optimization and simulation models at household and regional to global scales. Characteristics of agricultural systems models have varied widely depending on the systems involved, their scales, and the wide range of purposes that motivated their development and use by researchers in different disciplines. Recent trends in broader collaboration across institutions, across disciplines, and between the public and private sectors suggest that the stage is set for the major advances in agricultural systems science that are needed for the next generation of models, databases, knowledge products and decision support systems. Furthermore, the lessons from history should be considered to help avoid roadblocks and pitfalls as the community develops this next generation of agricultural systems models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

An efficient Bayesian inversion of a geothermal prospect using a multivariate adaptive regression spline method

In this study, an efficient Bayesian framework equipped with a multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) technique is developed to alleviate computational burdens encountered in a conventional Bayesian inversion of a geothermal prospect. Fast MARS models are developed from training dataset generated by CPU-intensive hydrothermal models and used as surrogate of high-fidelity physical models in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. This Bayesian inference with MARS-enabled MCMC method is used to reduce prior estimates of uncertainty in structural or characteristic hydrothermal flow parameters of the model to posterior distributions. A geothermal prospect near Superstition Mountain in Imperial County of California in USA is used to illustrate the proposed framework and demonstrate the computational efficiency of MARS-based Bayesian inversion. The developed MARS models are also used to efficiently drive calculation of Sobol’ total sensitivity indices. Furthermore, only top sensitive parameters are included in Bayesian inference to further improve the computational efficiency of inversion. Sensitivity analysis also confirms that water circulation through high permeable structures, rather than heat conduction through impermeable granite, is the primary heat transfer method. The presented framework is demonstrated an efficient tool to update knowledge of geothermal prospects by inversing field data. Although only thermal data is used in this study, other type of data, such as flow and transport observations, can be jointly used in this method for underground hydrocarbon reservoirs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Planck early results. XV. Spectral energy distributions and radio continuum spectra of northern extragalactic radio sources

Spectral energy distributions (SEDs) and radio continuum spectra are presented for a northern sample of 104 extragalactic radio sources, based on the Planck Early Release Compact Source Catalogue (ERCSC) and simultaneous multifrequency data. The nine Planck frequencies, from 30 to 857GHz, are complemented by a set of simultaneous observations ranging from radio to gamma-rays. This is the first extensive frequency coverage in the radio and millimetre domains for an essentially complete sample of extragalactic radio sources, and it shows how the individual shocks, each in their own phase of development, shape the radio spectra as they move in the relativistic jet. The SEDs presented in this paper were fitted with second and third degree polynomials to estimate the frequencies of the synchrotron and inverse Compton (IC) peaks, and the spectral indices of low and high frequency radio data, including the Planck ERCSC data, were calculated. SED modelling methods are discussed, with an emphasis on proper, physical modelling of the synchrotron bump using multiple components. Planck ERCSC data also suggest that the original accelerated electron energy spectrum could be much harder than commonly thought, with power-law index around 1.5 instead of the canonical 2.5. The implications of this are discussed for the acceleration mechanisms effective in blazar shock. Furthermore in many cases the Planck data indicate that gamma-ray emission must originate in the same shocks that produce the radio emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Simplified Numerical Approach to Characterize the Thermal Response of a Moving Bed Solar Reactor

Abstract Concentrated solar thermochemical storage in the form of a zero-emission fuel is a promising option to produce long-duration energy storage. Solar fuel is produced using a cavity reactor that captures concentrated solar radiation from a solar field of heliostats. In this paper, heat transfer model of a tubular plug-flow reactor designed and manufactured for a solar fuel production is presented. Experimental data collected from a fixed bed tubular reactor testing are used for model comparison. The system consists of an externally heated tube with counter-current flowing gas and moving solid particles as the heated media. The proposed model simulates the dynamic behavior of temperature profiles of the tube wall, gas, and particles under various gas flowrates and residence times. The heat transfer between gas–wall, solid particle–wall, and gas–solid particle is numerically studied. The model results are compared with the results of experiments done using a 4 kW furnace with a 150 mm heating zone surrounding a horizontal alumina tube (reactor) with 50.8 mm outer diameter and thickness of 3.175 mm. Solid fixed particles of magnesium manganese oxide (MgMn2O4) with the size of 1 mm are packed within the length of 250 mm at the center of the tube length. Simulation results are assessed with respect to fixed bed experimental data for four different gas flowrates, namely, 5, 10, 15, and 20 standard liters per minute of air, and furnace temperatures in the range of 200–1200 °C. The simulation results showed good agreement with maximum steady state error that is less than 6% of those obtained from the experiments for all runs. The proposed model can be implemented as a low-order physical model for the control of temperature inside plug-flow reactors for thermochemical energy storage applications.

Engineering↗

PHISICS User Manual

PHISICS (Parallel and Highly Innovative Simulation for INL Code System) is a reactor physics package developed at the Idaho National Laboratory. It is composed of several modules: a nodal and semi-structured transport core solver (INSTANT), a depletion module (MRTAU), a time-dependent solver (TimeIntegrator), a cross-section interpolation and manipulation framework (MIXER), a SuperHomogenization scheme (SPH) a criticality search module (CRITICALITY), a fuel management and shuffling component (SHUFFLE) and a coupling API with RELAP5-3D. PHISICS has been built in a highly modular fashion so that different physical models can be activated or deactivated depending on the physics relevant to the particular type of analysis. This approach simplifies development as well as mid- and long-term maintenance of the code. PHISICS is entirely written in FORTRAN 95/2003. Each of its components is fully parallelized and designed to take full advantage of shared-memory computers (multiprocessor desktops and workstations) and middle to large high-performance computing systems (10 to 1000 processors). The aim of this document is to detail the input requirements for PHISICS (and all its modules) focusing on the input structure.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Development and Validation of SAM Multi-dimensional Flow Model for Thermal Mixing and Stratification Modeling

Thermal mixing and stratification in large pools or enclosures are very important phenomena that are critical to nuclear reactor safety. Because of the wide ranges of time and length scales associated with such phenomena, accurate modeling and simulation of thermal mixing and stratification remain as the key unresolved, challenging problems for reactor transient analyses. In traditional system analysis codes, simplified zero-dimensional (0-D) models are widely used for their high numerical efficiency, but they generally suffer from very limited prediction accuracies or range of applicability. Like traditional system analysis codes, the current version of the SAM code has implemented such simplified 0-D and one-dimensional mixing models. On the other hand, high-resolution Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools are often used to model complex thermal mixing and stratification phenomena. They are, however, generally numerically expensive, and they require large amounts of computational resources. It is therefore desirable to implement advanced and efficient thermal mixing and stratification modeling capabilities embedded in a system analysis code. This approach will improve the accuracy of reactor safety analyses when thermal mixing and stratification are involved, and also avoid using the large computational resources needed for high-resolution CFD analysis. Currently, with the support of the U.S. DOE Office of Nuclear Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program, an effort has been launched to develop and implement a multi-dimensional flow model in the system analysis code SAM, and demonstrate its applications to model thermal mixing and stratification phenomena in large enclosures. The main outcomes of this research and development activity are summarized in this report, which presents an attempt to include a built-in advanced multi-dimensional flow model in a system analysis code with the focus on overcoming the simulation challenges of thermal mixing and stratification phenomena. In this report, we start with the introduction of existing SAM code capabilities to simulate thermal mixing and stratification phenomena, which is followed by a short summary of the multi-dimensional model implemented in the SAM code, including both the physical model and the Finite Element Method code implementation. In this study, two options were implemented in the SAM code to model turbulent flows: a relatively simple built-in turbulence model and an interface to accept externally computed turbulent viscosities (e.g., from a high- resolution CFD simulation). Code validation studies on this newly added capability were then carried out to compare SAM simulation results with experimental data from the SUPERCAVNA facility, which was designed to study the complex flow recirculation and thermal stratification phenomena relevant to sodium fast reactor designs. In this study, one transient and two steady-state test cases were used for code validation. Different approaches have been used to model the complex turbulence flow fields in the SUPERCAVNA facility. A highly simplified zero-equation turbulence model was first used, but it was determined that it is too simple to capture the complex turbulence flow fields in these test cases. Subsequently, the code validation continued with the use of turbulent viscosity data from high-resolution STAR-CCM+ CFD simulations to improve the accuracy of the results. Using this approach, the SAM simulation results showed very good agreement with both the SUPERCAVNA experimental data and STAR-CCM+ simulation results. In this report, we demonstrate the development, implementation, and successful validation of a multi-dimensional flow model in the SAM code, which aims to improve the simulation accuracy for complex thermal mixing and stratification phenomena. Lessons have also been learned, including that in cases where the flow fields are not well predicted by the zero-equation model, the iinput of turbulent viscosities from an external source can enhance the overall predictive capabilities needed to accurately capture complex thermal-hydraulic phenomena. Therefore, future research will be needed to further improve the code’s capabilities, such as by developing a more efficient and robust approach to capture the turbulence effects in the SAM code.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Identification Approach to Alleviate Effects of Unmeasured Heat Gains for MIMO Building Thermal Systems

It is important to have practical methods for constructing a good mathematical model for a building's thermal system for energy audits, retrofit analysis and advanced building controls, e.g. model predictive control. Identification approaches based on semi-physical model structures are popular in building science for those purposes. However conventional gray box identification approaches applied to thermal networks would fail when significant unmeasured heat gains present in estimation data. Although this situation is very common and practical, there has been little research to tackle this issue in building science. This paper presents an overall identification approach to alleviate influences of unmeasured disturbances, and hence to obtain improved gray-box building models. The approach was applied to an existing open space building and the performance is demonstrated.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Cosmic-Ray Feedback Heating of the Intracluster Medium

Active galactic nuclei (AGNs) play a central role in solving the decades-old cooling-flow problem. Although there is consensus that AGNs provide the energy to prevent catastrophically large star formation, one major problem remains: How is the AGN energy thermalized in the intracluster medium (ICM)? We perform a suite of three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamical adaptive mesh refinement simulations of AGN feedback in a cool core cluster including cosmic rays (CRs). CRs are supplied to the ICM via collimated AGN jets and subsequently disperse in the magnetized ICM via streaming, and interact with the ICM via hadronic, Coulomb, and streaming instability heating. We find that CR transport is an essential model ingredient at least within the context of the physical model considered here. When streaming is included, (i) CRs come into contact with the ambient ICM and efficiently heat it, (ii) streaming instability heating dominates over Coulomb and hadronic heating, (iii) the AGN is variable and the atmosphere goes through low-/high-velocity dispersion cycles, and, importantly, (iv) CR pressure support in the cool core is very low and does not demonstrably violate observational constraints. However, when streaming is ignored, CR energy is not efficiently spent on the ICM heating and CR pressure builds up to a significant level, creating tension with the observations. Overall, we demonstrate that CR heating is a viable channel for the AGN energy thermalization in clusters and likely also in ellipticals, and that CRs play an important role in determining AGN intermittency and the dynamical state of cool cores.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Evaluation of Cosmological Models from the Expansion and Growth of Structure Measurements

Here, we compare a large suite of theoretical cosmological models to observational data from the cosmic microwave background, baryon acoustic oscillation measurements of expansion, Type Ia supernova measurements of expansion, redshift space distortion measurements of the growth of structure, and the local Hubble constant. Our theoretical models include parametrizations of dark energy as well as physical models of dark energy and modified gravity. We determine the constraints on the model parameters, incorporating the redshift space distortion data directly in the analysis. To determine whether models can be ruled out, we evaluate the p-value (the probability under the model of obtaining data as bad or worse than the observed data). In our comparison, we find the well-known tension of H 0 with the other data; no model resolves this tension successfully. Among the models we consider, the large-scale growth of structure data does not affect the modified gravity models as a category particularly differently from dark energy models; it matters for some modified gravity models but not others, and the same is true for dark energy models. We compute predicted observables for each model under current observational constraints, and identify models for which future observational constraints will be particularly informative.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A global time-dependent model of thunderstorm electricity. I - Mathematical properties of the physical and numerical models

A time-dependent model is introduced that can be used to simulate the interaction of a thunderstorm with its global electrical environment. The model solves the continuity equation of the Maxwell current, which is assumed to be composed of the conduction, displacement, and source currents. Boundary conditions which can be used in conjunction with the continuity equation to form a well-posed initial-boundary value problem are determined. Properties of various components of solutions of the initial-boundary value problem are analytically determined. The results indicate that the problem has two time scales, one determined by the background electrical conductivity and the other by the time variation of the source function. A numerical method for obtaining quantitative results is introduced, and its properties are studied. Some simulation results on the evolution of the displacement and conduction currents during the electrification of a storm are presented.

Browning, G. L.↗

Fault management for the Space Station Freedom control center

This paper describes model based reasoning fault isolation in complex systems using automated digraph analysis. It discusses the use of the digraph representation as the paradigm for modeling physical systems and a method for executing these failure models to provide real-time failure analysis. It also discusses the generality, ease of development and maintenance, complexity management, and susceptibility to verification and validation of digraph failure models. It specifically describes how a NASA-developed digraph evaluation tool and an automated process working with that tool can identify failures in a monitored system when supplied with one or more fault indications. This approach is well suited to commercial applications of real-time failure analysis in complex systems because it is both powerful and cost effective.

Clark, Colin↗

Methods for modeling contact dynamics of capture mechanisms

In this paper, an analytical approach for studying the contact dynamics of space-based vehicles during docking/berthing maneuvers is presented. Methods for modeling physical contact between docking/berthing mechanisms, examples of how these models have been used to evaluate the dynamic behavior of automated capture mechanisms, and experimental verification of predicted results are shown.

Williams, Philip J.↗

Modeling the Self-organized Critical Behavior of the Plasma Sheet Reconnection Dynamics

Analyses of Polar UVI auroral image data reviewed in our other presentation at this meeting (V. Uritsky, A. Klimas) show that bright night-side high-latitude UV emissions exhibit so many of the key properties of systems in self-organized criticality (SOC) that an alternate interpretation has become virtually impossible. It is now necessary to find and model the source of this behavior. We note that the most common models of self-organized criticality are numerical sandpiles. These are, at root, models that govern the transport of some quantity from a region where it is loaded to another where it is unloaded. Transport is enabled by the excitation of a local threshold instability; it is intermittent and bursty, and it exhibits a number of scale-free statistical properties. Searching for a system in the magnetosphere that is analogous and that, in addition, is known to produce auroral signatures, we focus on the reconnection dynamics of the plasma sheet. In our previous work, a driven reconnection model has been constructed and has been under study. The transport of electromagnetic (primarily magnetic) energy carried by the Poynting flux into the reconnection region of the model has been examined. All of the analysis techniques, and more, that have been applied to the auroral image data have also been applied to this Poynting flux. Here, we report new results showing that this model also exhibits so many of the key properties of systems in self-organized criticality that an alternate interpretation is implausible. Further, we find a strong correlation between these key properties of the model and those of the auroral UV emissions. We suggest that, in general, the driven reconnection model is an important step toward a realistic plasma physical model of self-organized criticality and we conclude, more specifically, that it is also a step in the right direction toward modeling the multiscale reconnection dynamics of the magnetotail.

Klimas, Alex↗

Modeling the Self-organized Critical Behavior of Earth's Plasma Sheet Reconnection Dynamics

Analyses of Polar UVI auroral image data show that bright night-side high-latitude W emissions exhibit so many of the key properties of systems in self-organized criticality that an alternate interpretation has become virtually impossible. These analyses will be reviewed. It is now necessary to find and model the source of this behavior. We note that the most common models of self-organized criticality are numerical sandpiles. These are, at root, models that govern the transport of some quantity from a region where it is loaded to another where it is unloaded. Transport is enabled by the excitation of a local threshold instability; it is intermittent and bursty, and it exhibits a number of scale-free statistical properties. Searching for a system in the magnetosphere that is analogous and that, in addition, is known to produce auroral signatures, we focus on the reconnection dynamics of the magnetotail plasma sheet. In our previous work, a driven reconnection model has been constructed and has been under study. The transport of electromagnetic (primarily magnetic) energy carried by the Poynting flux into the reconnection region of the model has been examined. All of the analysis techniques (and more) that have been applied to the auroral image data have also been applied to this Poynting flux. New results will be presented showing that this model also exhibits so many of the key properties of systems in self-organized criticality that an alternate interpretation is implausible. A strong correlation between these key properties of the model and those of the auroral UV emissions will be demonstrated. We suggest that, in general, the driven reconnection model is an important step toward a realistic plasma physical model of self-organized criticality and we conclude, more specifically, that it is also a step in the right direction toward modeling the multiscale reconnection dynamics of the magnetotail.

Klimas, Alexander J.↗

Planck Early Results. XV. Spectral Energy Distributions and Radio Continuum Spectra of Northern Extragalactic Radio Sources

Spectral energy distributions (SEDs) and radio continuum spectra are presented for a northern sample of 104 extragalactic radio sources. based on the Planck Early Release Compact Source Catalogue (ERCSC) and simultaneous multi frequency data. The nine Planck frequencies, from 30 to 857 GHz, are complemented by a set of simultaneous observations ranging from radio to gamma-rays. This is the first extensive frequency coverage in the radio and millimetre domains for an essentially complete sample of extragalactic radio sources, and it shows how the individual shocks, each in their own phase of development, shape the radio spectra as they move in the relativistic jet. The SEDs presented in this paper were fitted with second and third degree polynomials to estimate the frequencies of the synchrotron and inverse Compton (IC) peaks, and the spectral indices of low and high frequency radio data, including the Planck ERCSC data, were calculated. SED modelling methods are discussed, with an emphasis on proper. physical modelling of the synchrotron bump using multiple components. Planck ERCSC data also suggest that the original accelerated electron energy spectrum could be much harder than commonly thought, with power-law index around 1.5 instead of the canonical 2.5. The implications of this are discussed for the acceleration mechanisms effective in blazar shock. Furthermore in many cases the Planck data indicate that gamma-ray emission must originate in the same shocks that produce the radio emission.

Aatrokoski, J.↗

Brief History of Agricultural Systems Modeling

Agricultural systems science generates knowledge that allows researchers to consider complex problems or take informed agricultural decisions. The rich history of this science exemplifies the diversity of systems and scales over which they operate and have been studied. Modeling, an essential tool in agricultural systems science, has been accomplished by scientists from a wide range of disciplines, who have contributed concepts and tools over more than six decades. As agricultural scientists now consider the next generation models, data, and knowledge products needed to meet the increasingly complex systems problems faced by society, it is important to take stock of this history and its lessons to ensure that we avoid re-invention and strive to consider all dimensions of associated challenges. To this end, we summarize here the history of agricultural systems modeling and identify lessons learned that can help guide the design and development of next generation of agricultural system tools and methods. A number of past events combined with overall technological progress in other fields have strongly contributed to the evolution of agricultural system modeling, including development of process-based bio-physical models of crops and livestock, statistical models based on historical observations, and economic optimization and simulation models at household and regional to global scales. Characteristics of agricultural systems models have varied widely depending on the systems involved, their scales, and the wide range of purposes that motivated their development and use by researchers in different disciplines. Recent trends in broader collaboration across institutions, across disciplines, and between the public and private sectors suggest that the stage is set for the major advances in agricultural systems science that are needed for the next generation of models, databases, knowledge products and decision support systems. The lessons from history should be considered to help avoid roadblocks and pitfalls as the community develops this next generation of agricultural systems models.

agricultural systems↗

IMPLEMENTATION AND VALIDATION OF A FULLY IMPLICIT ACCUMULATOR MODEL IN RELAP-7

This paper presents the implementation and validation of an accumulator model in RELAP-7 under the framework of preconditioned Jacobian free Newton Krylov (JFNK) method, based on the similar model used in RELAP5. RELAP-7 is a new nuclear reactor system safety analysis code being developed at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). RELAP-7 is a fully implicit system code. The JFNK and preconditioning methods used in RELAP-7 is briefly discussed. The slightly modified accumulator model is summarized for completeness. The implemented model was validated with LOFT L3-1 test and benchmarked with RELAP5 results. RELAP-7 and RELAP5 had almost identical results for the accumulator gas pressure and water level, although there were some minor difference in other parameters such as accumulator gas temperature and tank wall temperature. One advantage of the JFNK method is its easiness to maintain and modify models due to fully separation of numerical methods from physical models. It would be straightforward to extend the current RELAP-7 accumulator model to simulate the advanced accumulator design.

Accumulator↗