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At least 1,189 records · Page 66
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Masses of Sunyaev-Zel’dovich galaxy clusters detected by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Stacked lensing measurements with Subaru HSC year 3 data

We present a stacked lensing analysis of 96 galaxy clusters selected by the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (SZ) effect in maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We select foreground galaxy clusters with a 5 σ -level SZ threshold in CMB observations from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope, while we define background source galaxies for the lensing analysis with secure photometric redshift cuts in Year 3 data of the Subaru Hyper Suprime Cam survey. We detect the stacked lensing signal in the range of 0.1 < R [ h - 1 Mpc ] < 100 in each of three cluster redshift bins, 0.092 < z ≤ 0.445 , 0.445 < z ≤ 0.695 , and 0.695 < z ≤ 1.180 , with 32 galaxy clusters in each bin. The cumulative signal-to-noise ratios of the lensing signal are 14.6, 12.0, and 6.6, respectively. Using a halo-based forward model, we then constrain statistical relationships between the mass inferred from the SZ observation (i.e. SZ mass) and the total mass derived from our stacked lensing measurements. At the average SZ mass in the cluster sample ( 2.1 - 2.4 × 10 14 h - 1 M ⊙ ), our likelihood analysis shows that the average total mass differs from the SZ counterpart by a factor of 1.3 ± 0.2 , 1.6 ± 0.2 , and 1.6 ± 0.3 (68%) in the aforementioned redshift ranges, respectively. Our limits are consistent with previous lensing measurements, and we find that the cluster modeling choices can introduce a 1 σ -level difference in our parameter inferences.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Phylodynamic Inference across Epidemic Scales

Within-host genetic diversity and large transmission bottlenecks confound phylodynamic inference of epidemiological dynamics. Conventional phylodynamic approaches assume that nodes in a time-scaled pathogen phylogeny correspond closely to the time of transmission between hosts that are ancestral to the sample. However, when hosts harbor diverse pathogen populations, node times can substantially pre-date infection times. Imperfect bottlenecks can cause lineages sampled in different individuals to coalesce in unexpected patterns. To address realistic violations of standard phylodynamic assumptions we developed a new inference approach based on a multi-scale coalescent model, accounting for nonlinear epidemiological dynamics, heterogeneous sampling through time, non-negligible genetic diversity of pathogens within hosts, and imperfect transmission bottlenecks. We apply this method to HIV-1 and Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak sequence data, illustrating how and when conventional phylodynamic inference may give misleading results. Within-host diversity of HIV-1 causes substantial upwards bias in the number of infected hosts using conventional coalescent models, but estimates using the multi-scale model have greater consistency with reported number of diagnoses through time. In contrast, we find that within-host diversity of EBOV has little influence on estimated numbers of infected hosts or reproduction numbers, and estimates are highly consistent with the reported number of diagnoses through time. The multi-scale coalescent also enables estimation of within-host effective population size using single sequences from a random sample of patients. We find within-host population genetic diversity of HIV-1 p17 to be 2Nμ=0.012 (95% CI 0.0066–0.023), which is lower than estimates based on HIV envelope serial sequencing of individual patients.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for Nonlinear System Identification

Neural ordinary differential equations (NODE) have been recently proposed as a promising approach for nonlinear system identification tasks. In this work, we systematically compare their predictive performance with current state-of-the-art nonlinear and classical linear methods. In particular, we present a quantitative study comparing NODE's performance against neural state-space models and classical linear system identification methods and evaluate their inference speed and prediction performance on open-loop errors across eight different dynamical systems. The experiments show that NODEs can consistently improve the prediction accuracy by order of magnitude compared to benchmark methods. Besides improved accuracy, we also observed that NODEs are less sensitive to hyperparameters compared to neural state-space models by paying the cost of increased computation at the inference time.

machine leaning, system identification, physics in↗
DOE OSTI2024

Collapsar Gamma-Ray Bursts Grind Their Black Hole Spins to a Halt

Abstract The spin of a newly formed black hole (BH) at the center of a massive star evolves from its natal value due to two competing processes: accretion of gas angular momentum that increases the spin and extraction of BH angular momentum by outflows that decreases the spin. Ultimately, the final, equilibrium spin is set by a balance between both processes. In order for the BH to launch relativistic jets and power aγ-ray burst (GRB), the BH magnetic field needs to be dynamically important. Thus, we consider the case of a magnetically arrested disk (MAD) driving the spin evolution of the BH. By applying the semianalytic MAD BH spin evolution model of Lowell et al. to collapsars, we show that if the BH accretes ∼20% of its initial mass, its dimensionless spin inevitably reaches small values,a≲ 0.2. For such spins, and for mass accretion rates inferred from collapsar simulations, we show that our semianalytic model reproduces the energetics of typical GRB jets,L jet ∼ 10 50 erg s −1 . We show that our semianalytic model reproduces the nearly constant power of typical GRB jets. If the MAD onset is delayed, this allows powerful jets at the high end of the GRB luminosity distribution,L jet ∼ 10 52 erg s −1 , but the final spin remains low,a≲ 0.3. These results are consistent with the low spins inferred from gravitational wave detections of binary BH mergers. In a companion paper by Gottlieb et al., we use GRB observations to constrain the natal BH spin to bea≃ 0.2.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2019

Using Bayesian Networks for Sensitivity Analysis of Complex Biogeochemical Models

Sensitivity analysis is a vital tool in numerical modeling to identify important parameters and processes that contribute to the overall uncertainty in model outputs. We developed a new sensitivity analysis method to quantify the relative importance of uncertain model processes that contain multiple uncertain parameters. The method is based on the concepts of Bayesian networks (BNs) to account for complex hierarchical uncertainty structure of a model system. We derived a new set of sensitivity indices using the methodology of variance-based global sensitivity analysis with the Bayesian inference. The framework is capable of representing the detailed uncertainty information of a complex model system using BNs and affords flexible grouping of different uncertain inputs given their characteristics and dependency structures. We have implemented the method on a real-world biogeochemical model at the groundwater-surface water interface within the Hanford Site’s 300 Area. The uncertainty sources of the model were first grouped into forcing scenario and three different processes based on our understanding of the complex system. The sensitivity analysis results indicate that both the reactive transport and groundwater flow processes are important sources of uncertainty for carbon-consumption predictions. Within the groundwater flow process, the structure of geological formations is more important than the permeability heterogeneity within a given geological formation. Our new sensitivity analysis framework based on BNs offers substantial flexibility for investigating the importance of combinations of interacting uncertainty sources in a hierarchical order, and it is expected to be applicable to a wide range of multi-physics models for complex systems.

Dai, Heng↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive mitigation of time-varying quantum noise

Current quantum computers suffer from non-stationary noise channels with high error rates, which undermines their reliability and reproducibility. We propose a Bayesian inference based adaptive algorithm that can learn and mitigate quantum noise in response to changing channel conditions. Our study emphasizes the need for dynamic inference of critical channel parameters to improve program accuracy. We use the Dirichlet distribution to model the stochasticity of the Pauli channel. This allows us to perform Bayesian inference, which can improve the performance of probabilistic error cancellation (PEC) under time-varying noise. Our work demonstrates the importance of characterizing and mitigating temporal variations in quantum noise, which is crucial for developing more accurate and reliable quantum technologies. Our results demonstrate that Bayesian PEC can outperform non-adaptive approaches by a factor of 4.5x when measured using Hellinger distance from the ideal distribution.

Dasgupta, Samudra↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neural lumped parameter differential equations with application in friction-stir processing

Lumped parameter methods aim to simplify the evolution of spatially-extended or continuous physical systems to that of a “lumped” element representative of the physical scales of the modeled system. For systems where the definition of a lumped element or its associated physics may be unknown, modeling tasks may be restricted to full-fidelity physics simulations. Here, in this work, we consider data-driven modeling tasks with limited point-wise measurements of otherwise continuous systems. We build upon the notion of the Universal Differential Equation (UDE) to construct data-driven models for reducing dynamics to that of a lumped parameter and inferring its properties. The flexibility of UDEs allow for composing various known physical priors suitable for application-specific modeling tasks, including lumped parameter methods. The motivating example for this work is the plunge and dwell stages for friction-stir welding; specifically, (i) mapping power input into the tool to a point-measurement of temperature and (ii) using this learned mapping for process control.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neural networks for parameter estimation in intractable models

The goal is to use deep learning models to estimate parameters in statistical models when standard likelihood estimation methods are computationally infeasible. For instance, inference for max-stable processes is exceptionally challenging even with small datasets, but simulation is straightforward. Data from model simulations are used to train deep neural networks and learn statistical parameters from max-stable models. The proposed neural network-based method provides a competitive alternative to current approaches, as demonstrated by considerable accuracy and computational time improvements. Finally, it serves as a proof of concept for deep learning in statistical parameter estimation and can be extended to other estimation problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven emulation of modal aerosol microphysics via neural operator-based modeling

The complexity and the small characteristic scales of aerosol microphysical processes pose a big challenge for accurate and efficient Earth system simulations at regional and global scales. In this work, we construct and evaluate a surrogate model: the aerosol deep operator network (ADON), a physics-inspired dual-net architecture for emulating the aerosol microphysics parameterization suite in the version 2 of the Energy Earth System Model (E3SMv2). The current version of the surrogate model is trained on a dataset comprising 9.8 million samples obtained from a global E3SMv2 simulation with the horizontal resolution of about one degree under cloud-free conditions. Incorporating domain spatial and temporal coordinates, as well as principle components extracted from training data, the dual-net surrogate model effectively captures the intricate representations of aerosol and the relationship with atmospheric state variables, achieving an R-squared score over $$95.7\%$$ for all the lognormal aerosol modes in the extrapolated regime. The validated model provides feature importance of input variables and their impact on the predictive capacity of the surrogate model in relation to the E3SM. The computational cost of online inference time deployed on CPUs and GPUs with lower precisions highlights ADON’s efficiency and potential in robust predictive modeling for large-scale Earth system computations.

Bai, Zhe↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning with Adaptive Conservativeness for Distributionally Robust Optimization: Incentive Design for Voltage Regulation

Information asymmetry between the Distribution System Operator (DSO) and Distributed Energy Resource Aggregators (DERAs) obstructs designing effective incentives for voltage regulation. To capture this effect, we employ a Stackelberg game-theoretic framework, where the DSO seeks to overcome the information asymmetry and refine its incentive strategies by learning from DERA behavior over multiple iterations. We introduce a model-based online learning algorithm for the DSO, aimed at inferring the relationship between incentives and DERA responses. Given the uncertain nature of these responses, we also propose a distributionally robust incentive design model to control the probability of voltage regulation failure and then reformulate it into a convex problem. This model allows the DSO to periodically revise distribution assumptions on uncertain parameters in the decision model of the DERA. Finally, we present a gradient-based method that permits the DSO to adaptively modify its conservativeness level, measured by the size of a Wasserstein metric-based ambiguity set, according to historical voltage regulation performance. The effectiveness of our proposed method is demonstrated through numerical experiments.

adaptation models↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning with Adaptive Conservativeness for Distributionally Robust Optimization: Incentive Design for Voltage Regulation: Preprint

Information asymmetry between the Distribution System Operator (DSO) and Distributed Energy Resource Aggregators (DERAs) obstructs designing effective incentives for voltage regulation. To capture this effect, we employ a Stackelberg game-theoretic framework, where the DSO seeks to overcome the information asymmetry and refine its incentive strategies by learning from DERA behavior over multiple iterations. We introduce a model-based online learning algorithm for the DSO, aimed at inferring the relationship between incentives and DERA responses. Given the uncertain nature of these responses, we also propose a distributionally robust incentive design model to control the probability of voltage regulation failure and then reformulate it into a convex problem. This model allows the DSO to periodically revise distribution assumptions on uncertain parameters in the decision model of the DERA. Finally, we present a gradient-based method that permits the DSO to adaptively modify its conservativeness level, measured by the size of a Wasserstein metric-based ambiguity set, according to historical voltage regulation performance. The effectiveness of our proposed method is demonstrated through numerical experiments.

distribution system operator↗
DOE OSTI2025

Laser powder bed fusion parameter estimation with k-NN

Abstract Laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) is a technique within additive manufacturing that uses a high power density laser to build parts from fused powdered metal alloy. This technology is well equipped to produce complex parts with otherwise impossible features, such as hidden voids or lattice structures. Alongside capability, reliability and quality are key characteristics considered when choosing a manufacturing method, and these are gaining attention as this method becomes more prevalent in industry. One main indicator of a stable L-PBF process is consistent melt pool geometry, and the properties of which are likely to determine the quality of the part produced. As computing power and sensing technologies become more advanced, this melt pool geometry could be studied in real time. This work addresses the challenge by leveraging a k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) model to identify key features within melt pool imagery and predict the energy density. The k-NN model was trained on data provided by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Data preprocessing was performed on the images to extract features that were used in the k-NN model. This approach was used to accurately infer the energy density of unseen layers within the same part. The algorithm was subsequently tested with unique scan strategies and found to reasonably estimate the energy density of different parts. A fivefold cross validation found the algorithm to be consistently predicting the class of 91.4% of the in situ melt pool images.

Jung, Patrick (ORCID:0000000267890859)↗
DOE OSTI2022

AtomAI framework for deep learning analysis of image and spectroscopy data in electron and scanning probe microscopy

Over the past several decades, electron and scanning probe microscopes have become critical components of condensed matter physics, materials science and chemistry research. At the same time, the infrastructure for establishing a connection between microscopy observations and materials behaviour over a broader parameter space is lacking. In this work, we introduce AtomAI, an open-source software package bridging instrument-specific Python libraries, deep learning and simulation tools into a single ecosystem. AtomAI allows direct applications of deep neural networks for atomic and mesoscopic image segmentation converting image and spectroscopy data into class-based local descriptors for downstream tasks such as statistical and graph analysis. For atomically resolved imaging data, the output is types and positions of atomic species, with an option for subsequent refinement. AtomAI further allows the implementation of a broad range of image and spectrum analysis functions, including invariant variational autoencoders for disentangling structural factors of variation and im2spec type of encoder–decoder models for mapping structure–property relationships. Finally, our framework allows seamless connection to the first principles modelling with a Python interface on the inferred atomic positions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving nuclear data evaluations with predictive reaction theory and indirect measurements

Nuclear reaction data required for astrophysics and applications is incomplete, as not all nuclear reactions can be measured or reliably predicted. Neutron-induced reactions involving unstable targets are particularly challenging, but often critical for simulations. In response to this need, indirect approaches, such as the surrogate reaction method, have been developed. Nuclear theory is key to extract reliable cross sections from such indirect measurements. We describe ongoing efforts to expand the theoretical capabilities that enable surrogate reaction measurements. We focus on microscopic predictions for charged-particle inelastic scattering, uncertainty-quantified optical nucleon-nucleus models, and neural-network enhanced parameter inference.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Fault detection and analysis in nuclear research facility using artificial intelligence methods

In this article, an online detection of transducer and actuator condition is discussed. A case study is on the reading of area radiation monitor (ARM) installed at the chimney of PUSPATI TRIGA nuclear reactor building, located at Bangi, Malaysia. There are at least five categories of abnormal ARM reading that could happen during the transducer failure, namely either the reading becomes very high, or very low/ zero, or with high fluctuation and noise. Moreover, the reading may be significantly higher or significantly lower as compared to the normal reading. An artificial neural network (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) are good methods for modeling this plant dynamics. The failure of equipment is based on ARM reading so it is then to compare with the estimated ARM data from ANN/ ANFIS function. The failure categories in either ‘yes’ or ‘no’ state are obtained from a comparison between the actual online data and the estimated output from ANN/ ANFIS function. It is found that this system design can correctly report the condition of ARM equipment in a simulated environment and later be implemented for online monitoring. This approach can also be extended to other transducers, such as the temperature profile of reactor core and also to include other critical actuator conditions such as the valves and pumps in the reactor facility provided that the failure symptoms are clearly defined.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comprehensive characterization of irradiation induced defects in ceria: Impact of point defects on vibrational and optical properties

Validation of multiscale microstructure evolution models can be improved when standard microstructure characterization tools are coupled with methods sensitive to individual point defects. We demonstrate how electronic and vibrational properties of defects revealed by optical absorption and Raman spectroscopies can be used to compliment transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and x-ray diffraction (XRD) in the characterization of microstructure evolution in ceria under non-equilibrium conditions. Experimental manifestation of non-equilibrium conditions was realized by exposing cerium dioxide (CeO2) to energetic protons at elevated temperature. Two sintered polycrystalline CeO2 samples were bombarded with protons accelerated to a few MeVs. These irradiation conditions produced a microstructure with resolvable extended defects and a significant concentration of point defects. A rate theory (RT) model was parametrized using the results of TEM, XRD, and thermal conductivity measurements to infer point defect concentrations. An abundance of cerium sublattice defects suggested by the RT model is supported by Raman spectroscopy measurements, which show peak shift and broadening of the intrinsic T2g peak and emergence of new defect peaks. Additionally, spectroscopic ellipsometry measurements performed in lieu of optical absorption reveals the presence of Ce3+ ions associated with oxygen vacancies. This work lays the foundation for a coupled approach that considers a multimodal characterization of microstructures to guide and validate complex defect evolution models.

Chauhan, Vinay S.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Three wide planetary-mass companions to FW Tau, ROXs 12, and ROXs 42B

We report the discovery of three planetary-mass companions (M = 6-20 M {sub Jup}) in wide orbits (ρ ∼ 150-300 AU) around the young stars FW Tau (Taurus-Auriga), ROXs 12 (Ophiuchus), and ROXs 42B (Ophiuchus). All three wide planetary-mass companions (PMCs) were reported as candidate companions in previous binary survey programs, but then were neglected for >10 yr. We therefore obtained followup observations that demonstrate that each candidate is comoving with its host star. Based on the absolute M{sub K{sup ′}} magnitudes, we infer masses (from hot-start evolutionary models) and projected separations of 10 ± 4 M {sub Jup} and 330 ± 30 AU for FW Tau b, 16 ± 4 M {sub Jup} and 210 ± 20 AU for ROXs 12, and 10 ± 4 M {sub Jup} and 140 ± 10 AU for ROXs 42B b. We also present similar observations for 10 other candidates that show that they are unassociated field stars, as well as multicolor JHK'L' near-infrared photometry for our new PMCs and for five previously identified substellar or planetary-mass companions. The near-infrared photometry for our sample of eight known and new companions generally parallels the properties of free-floating, low-mass brown dwarfs in these star-forming regions. However, five of the seven objects with M < 30 M {sub Jup} are redder in K' – L' than the distribution of young free-floating counterparts of similar J – K' color. We speculate that this distinction could indicate a structural difference in circumplanetary disks, perhaps tied to higher disk mass since at least two of the objects in our sample are known to be accreting more vigorously than typical free-floating counterparts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

New evidence for a substellar luminosity problem: Dynamical mass for the brown dwarf binary Gl 417BC

We present new evidence for a problem with cooling rates predicted by substellar evolutionary models that implies that model-derived masses in the literature for brown dwarfs and directly imaged planets may be too high. Based on our dynamical mass for Gl 417BC (L4.5+L6) and a gyrochronology system age from its young, solar-type host star, commonly used models predict luminosities 0.2-0.4 dex lower than we observe. This corroborates a similar luminosity-age discrepancy identified in our previous work on the L4+L4 binary HD 130948BC, which coincidentally has nearly identical component masses (≈50-55 M{sub Jup}) and age (≈800 Myr) as Gl 417BC. Such a luminosity offset would cause systematic errors of 15%-25% in model-derived masses at this age. After comparing different models, including cloudless models that should not be appropriate for mid-L dwarfs like Gl 417BC and HD 130948BC but actually match their luminosities better, we speculate the observed overluminosity could be caused by opacity holes (i.e., patchy clouds) in these objects. Moreover, from hybrid substellar evolutionary models that account for cloud disappearance, we infer the corresponding phase of overluminosity may extend from a few hundred million years up to a few gigayears and cause masses to be overestimated by up to 25%, even well after clouds disappear from view entirely. Thus, the range of ages and spectral types affected by this potential systematic shift in luminosity evolution would encompass most known directly imaged gas-giants and field brown dwarfs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗