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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,189 records · Page 66
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Grain boundary segregation in BCC vanadium-based alloys: Quantum-accurate computed segregation spectra and targeted experimental validations

Grain boundaries are critically important to the material performance of fusion reactor materials such as vanadium, particularly mechanical properties and irradiation resistance. A key challenge to the design and control of grain boundaries in vanadium alloys is the lack of quantitative data on grain boundary segregation. In this study, we combine computational and experimental methods to address this gap. Furthermore, using a machine learning-accelerated quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics approach, we calculated the segregation spectra for 28 transition metal elements in polycrystalline vanadium, and validated these predictions experimentally for a subset of solutes that sample a range of segregation behavior, specifically zirconium, titanium, and tungsten, using analytical transmission electron microscopy. Furthermore, the agreement between experiment and theory highlights the predictive capability of our approach. Critically, this work provides a comprehensive database of quantum-accurate solute segregation enthalpies in vanadium, enabling the development of advanced alloys for fusion reactors applications.

Fusion materials↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated computation of lattice thermal conductivity using neural network interatomic potentials

We report with the development of the density functional theory (DFT) and ever-increasing computational capacity, an accurate prediction of lattice thermal conductivity based on the Boltzmann transport theory becomes computationally feasible, contributing to a fundamental understanding of thermal conductivity as well as a choice of the optimal materials for specific applications. However, steep costs in evaluating third-order force constants limit the theoretical investigation to crystals with high symmetry and few atoms in the unit cell. Currently, machine learning potentials are garnering attention as a computationally efficient high-fidelity model of DFT, and several studies have demonstrated that the lattice thermal conductivity could be computed accurately via the machine learning potentials. However, test materials were mostly crystals with high symmetries, and the applicability of machine learning potentials to a wide range of materials has yet to be demonstrated. Furthermore, establishing a standard training set that provides consistent accuracy and computational efficiencies across a wide range of materials would be useful. To address these issues, herein we compute lattice thermal conductivities at 300 K using neural network interatomic potentials. As test materials, we select 25 materials with diverse symmetries and a wide range of lattice thermal conductivities between 10 -1 and 10 3 Wm -1 K -1 . Among various choices of training sets, we find that molecular dynamics trajectories at 50–700 K consistently provide results at par with DFT for the test materials. In contrast to pure DFT approaches, the computational cost in the present approach is uniform over the test materials, yielding a speed gain of 2–10 folds. When a smaller reduced training set is used, the relative efficiency increases by up to ~50 folds without sacrificing accuracy significantly. The current work will broaden the application scope of machine learning potentials by establishing a robust framework for accurately computing lattice thermal conductivity with machine learning potentials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Explainable and trustworthy artificial intelligence for correctable modeling in chemical sciences

Data science has primarily focused on big data, but for many physics, chemistry, and engineering applications, data are often small, correlated and, thus, low dimensional, and sourced from both computations and experiments with various levels of noise. Typical statistics and machine learning methods do not work for these cases. Expert knowledge is essential, but a systematic framework for incorporating it into physics-based models under uncertainty is lacking. Here, we develop a mathematical and computational framework for probabilistic artificial intelligence (AI)–based predictive modeling combining data, expert knowledge, multiscale models, and information theory through uncertainty quantification and probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). We apply PGMs to chemistry specifically and develop predictive guarantees for PGMs generally. Our proposed framework, combining AI and uncertainty quantification, provides explainable results leading to correctable and, eventually, trustworthy models. The proposed framework is demonstrated on a microkinetic model of the oxygen reduction reaction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1988

Accretion and primary differentiation of Mars

In collecting samples from Mars to address questions such as whether Mars accreted homogeneously or heterogeneously, how Mars segregated into a metallic core and silicate mantle, and whether Mars outgassed catastrophically coincident with accretion or more serenely on a longer timescale, we must be guided by our experience in addressing these questions for the Earth, Moon, and igneous meteorite parent bodies. A key measurement to be made on any sample returned from Mars is its oxygen isotopic composition. A single measurement will suffice to bind the SNC meteorites to Mars or demonstrate that they cannot be samples of that planet. A positive identification of Mars as the SNC parent planet will permit all that has been learned from the SNC meteorites to be applied to Mars with confidence. A negative result will perhaps be more exciting in forcing us to look for another object that has been geologically active in the recent past. If the oxygen isotopic composition of Earth and Mars are established to be distinct, accretion theory must provide for different compositions for two planets now separated by only 0.5 AU.

Drake, Michael J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Benchmarking machine learning interatomic potentials via phonon anharmonicity

Abstract Machine learning approaches have recently emerged as powerful tools to probe structure-property relationships in crystals and molecules. Specifically, machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) can accurately reproduce first-principles data at a cost similar to that of conventional interatomic potential approaches. While MLIPs have been extensively tested across various classes of materials and molecules, a clear characterization of the anharmonic terms encoded in the MLIPs is lacking. Here, we benchmark popular MLIPs using the anharmonic vibrational Hamiltonian of ThO 2 in the fluorite crystal structure, which was constructed from density functional theory (DFT) using our highly accurate and efficient irreducible derivative methods. The anharmonic Hamiltonian was used to generate molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories, which were used to train three classes of MLIPs: Gaussian approximation potentials, artificial neural networks (ANN), and graph neural networks (GNN). The results were assessed by directly comparing phonons and their interactions, as well as phonon linewidths, phonon lineshifts, and thermal conductivity. The models were also trained on a DFT MD dataset, demonstrating good agreement up to fifth-order for the ANN and GNN. Our analysis demonstrates that MLIPs have great potential for accurately characterizing anharmonicity in materials systems at a fraction of the cost of conventional first principles-based approaches.

interatomic potentials↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven surrogates for high dimensional models using Gaussian process regression on the Grassmann manifold

This paper introduces a surrogate modeling scheme based on Grassmannian manifold learning to be used for cost-efficient predictions of high-dimensional stochastic systems. The method exploits subspace-structured features of each solution by projecting it onto a Grassmann manifold. This point-wise linear dimensionality reduction harnesses the structural information to assess the similarity between solutions at different points in the input parameter space. The method utilizes a solution clustering approach in order to identify regions of the parameter space over which solutions are sufficiently similarly such that they can be interpolated on the Grassmannian. In this clustering, the reduced-order solutions are partitioned into disjoint clusters on the Grassmann manifold using the eigen-structure of properly defined Grassmannian kernels and, the Karcher mean of each cluster is estimated. Then, the points in each cluster are projected onto the tangent space with origin at the corresponding Karcher mean using the exponential mapping. For each cluster, a Gaussian process regression model is trained that maps the input parameters of the system to the reduced solution points of the corresponding cluster projected onto the tangent space. Using this Gaussian process model, the full-field solution can be efficiently predicted at any new point in the parameter space. In certain cases, the solution clusters will span disjoint regions of the parameter space. In such cases, for each of the solution clusters we utilize a second, density-based spatial clustering to group their corresponding input parameter points in the Euclidean space. The proposed method is applied to two numerical examples. Here, the first is a nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equation with uncertain initial conditions where the surrogate is used to predict the time history solution. The second involves modeling of plastic deformation in a model amorphous solid using the Shear Transformation Zone theory of plasticity, where the proposed surrogate is used to predict the full strain field of a material specimen under large shear strains.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine-learning guided search for phonon-mediated superconductivity in boron and carbon compounds

We present a workflow that iteratively combines ab-initio calculations with a machine-learning (ML) guided search for superconducting compounds with both dynamical stability and instability from imaginary phonon modes, the latter of which have been largely overlooked in previous studies. Electron-phonon coupling (EPC) properties and critical temperature (T c ) of 417 boron, carbon, and borocarbide compounds have been calculated with density functional perturbation theory (DFPT) and isotropic Eliashberg approximation. Our study addresses T c convergence of Brillouin zone sampling with an ansatz test, stabilizing imaginary phonon modes for significant EPC contributions, and comparing the performance of two ML models, especially when including compounds of dynamical instability. We predict a few promising superconducting compounds with formation energy just above the ground state convex hull, such as Ca 5 B 3 N 6 (35 K), TaNbC 2 (28.4 K), Nb 3 B 3 C (16.4 K), Y 2 B 3 C 2 (4.0 K), Pd 3 CaB (7.0 K), MoRuB 2 (15.6 K), RuVB 2 (15.0 K), RuSc 3 C 4 (6.6 K) among others.

Nepal, Niraj K. [Ames Laboratory (AMES), Ames, IA ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning approach for vibronically renormalized electronic band structures

Here, we present a machine learning (ML) method for efficient computation of vibrational thermal expectation values of physical properties from first principles. Our approach is based on the nonperturbative frozen phonon formulation in which stochastic Monte Carlo algorithm is employed to sample configurations of nuclei in a supercell at finite temperatures based on a first-principles phonon model. A deep-learning neural network is trained to accurately predict physical properties associated with sampled phonon configurations, thus bypassing the time-consuming ab initio calculations. To incorporate the point-group symmetry of the electronic system into the ML model, group-theoretical methods are used to develop a symmetry-invariant descriptor for phonon configurations in the supercell. We apply our ML approach to compute the temperature dependent electronic energy gap of silicon based on density functional theory (DFT). We show that, with less than a hundred DFT calculations for training the neural network model, an order of magnitude larger number of sampling can be achieved for the computation of the vibrational thermal expectation values. Our work highlights the promising potential of ML techniques for finite temperature first-principles electronic structure methods.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pairing glue in cuprate superconductors from the self-energy revealed via machine learning

Recently, machine learning was applied to extract both the normal and the anomalous components of the self-energy from photoemission data at the antinodal points in Bi– based cuprate high-temperature superconductors. It was argued that both components do show prominent peaks near 50 meV, which hold information about the pairing glue, but the peaks are hidden in the actual data, which measure only the total self-energy. We analyze the self-energy within an effective fermion-boson theory. We show that soft thermal fluctuations give rise to peaks in both components of the self-energy at a frequency comparable to the superconducting gap, while they cancel in the total self-energy, all irrespective of the nature of the pairing boson. Furthermore, in the quantum limit T → 0 prominent peaks survive only for a very restricted subclass of pairing interactions. We argue that the way to potentially nail down the pairing boson is to determine the thermal evolution of the peaks.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS1990

Introduction to Fuzzy Set Theory

An introduction to fuzzy set theory is described. Topics covered include: neural networks and fuzzy systems; the dynamical systems approach to machine intelligence; intelligent behavior as adaptive model-free estimation; fuzziness versus probability; fuzzy sets; the entropy-subsethood theorem; adaptive fuzzy systems for backing up a truck-and-trailer; product-space clustering with differential competitive learning; and adaptive fuzzy system for target tracking.

Kosko, Bart↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermodynamics and its prediction and CALPHAD modeling: Review, state of the art, and perspectives

Thermodynamics is a science concerning the state of a system, whether it is stable, metastable, or unstable, when interacting with its surroundings. The combined law of thermodynamics derived by Gibbs about 150 years ago laid the foundation of thermodynamics. In Gibbs combined law, the entropy production due to internal processes was not included, and the 2nd law was thus practically removed from the Gibbs combined law, so it is only applicable to systems under equilibrium, thus commonly termed as equilibrium or Gibbs thermodynamics. Gibbs further derived the classical statistical thermodynamics in terms of the probability of configurations in a system in the later 1800's and early 1900's. With the quantum mechanics (QM) developed in 1920's, the QM-based statistical thermodynamics was established and connected to classical statistical thermodynamics at the classical limit as shown by Landau in the 1940's. In 1960's the development of density functional theory (DFT) by Kohn and co-workers enabled the QM prediction of properties of the ground state of a system. On the other hand, the entropy production due to internal processes in non-equilibrium systems was studied separately by Onsager in 1930's and Prigogine and co-workers in the 1950's. In 1960's to 1970's the digitization of thermodynamics was developed by Kaufman in the framework of the CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD) modeling of individual phases with internal degrees of freedom. CALPHAD modeling of thermodynamics and atomic transport properties has enabled computational design of complex materials in the last 50 years. Our recently termed zentropy theory integrates DFT and statistical mechanics through the replacement of the internal energy of each individual configuration by its DFT-predicted free energy. The zentropy theory is capable of accurately predicting the free energy of individual phases, transition temperatures and properties of magnetic and ferroelectric materials with free energies of individual configurations solely from DFT-based calculations and without fitting parameters, and is being tested for other phenomena including superconductivity, quantum criticality, and black holes. Those predictions include the singularity at critical points with divergence of physical properties, negative thermal expansion, and the strongly correlated physics. Furthermore, those individual configurations may thus be considered as the genomic building blocks of individual phases in the spirit of the materials genome®. This has the potential to shift the paradigm of CALPHAD modeling from being heavily dependent on experimental inputs to becoming fully predictive with inputs solely from DFT-based calculations and machine learning models built on those calculations and existing experimental data through newly developed and future open-source tools. Furthermore, through the combined law of thermodynamics including the internal entropy production, it is shown that the kinetic coefficient matrix of independent internal processes is diagonal with respect to the conjugate potentials in the combined law, and the cross phenomena that the phenomenological Onsager flux and reciprocal relationships are due to the dependence of the conjugate potential of a molar quantity on nonconjugate molar quantities and other potentials, which can be predicted by the zentropy theory and CALPHAD modeling.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Engineering of increased L-Threonine production in bacteria by combinatorial cloning and machine learning

The goal of this study is to develop a general strategy for bacterial engineering using an integrated synthetic biology and machine learning (ML) approach. This strategy was developed in the context of increasing L-threonine production in Escherichia coli ATCC 21277. A set of 16 genes was initially selected based on metabolic pathway relevance to threonine biosynthesis and used for combinatorial cloning to construct a set of 385 strains to generate training data (i.e., a range of L-threonine titers linked to each of the specific gene combinations). Hybrid (regression/classification) deep learning (DL) models were developed and used to predict additional gene combinations in subsequent rounds of combinatorial cloning for increased L-threonine production based on the training data. As a result, E. coli strains built after just three rounds of iterative combinatorial cloning and model prediction generated higher L-threonine titers (from 2.7 g/L to 8.4 g/L) than those of patented L-threonine strains being used as controls (4-5 g/L). Interesting combinations of genes in L-threonine production included deletions of the tdh, metL, dapA, and dhaM genes as well as overexpression of the pntAB, ppc, and aspC genes. Mechanistic analysis of the metabolic system constraints for the best performing constructs offers ways to improve the models by adjusting weights for specific gene combinations. Graph theory analysis of pairwise gene modifications and corresponding levels of L-threonine production also suggests additional rules that can be incorporated into future ML models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Importance of bulk excitations and coherent electron-photon-phonon scattering in photoemission from PbTe(111): Ab initio theory with experimental comparisons

This paper presents a fully ab initio many-body photoemission framework that includes coherent three-body electron-photon-phonon scattering to predict the transverse momentum distributions and the mean transverse energies (MTEs) of bulk photoelectrons from single-crystal photocathodes. The need to develop such a theory stems from the lack of studies that provide complete understanding of the underlying fundamental processes governing the transverse momentum distribution of photoelectrons emitted from single crystals. For example, initial predictions based on density-functional theory calculations of effective electron masses suggested that the (111) surface of PbTe would produce very small MTEs (≤ 15 meV), whereas our experiments yielded MTEs ten to twenty times larger than these predictions and also exhibited a lower photoemission threshold than predicted. The ab initio framework presented in this paper correctly reproduces both the magnitude of the MTEs from our measurements in PbTe(111) and the observed photoemission below the predicted threshold. Our results show that both photoexcitations into states that propagate in the bulk of the material and coherent many-body electron-photon-phonon scattering processes, which initial predictions ignored, play surprisingly important roles in photoemission from PbTe(111). Lastly, from the lessons learned, we recommend a procedure for rapid computational screening of potential single-crystal photocathodes for applications in next-generation ultrafast electron diffraction and X-ray free-electron lasers, which will enable significant advances in condensed matter research.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Separable physics-informed DeepONet: Breaking the curse of dimensionality in physics-informed machine learning

The deep operator network (DeepONet) has shown remarkable potential in solving partial differential equations (PDEs) by mapping between infinite-dimensional function spaces using labeled datasets. However, in scenarios lacking labeled data, the physics-informed DeepONet (PI-DeepONet) approach, which utilizes the residual loss of the governing PDE to optimize the network parameters, faces significant computational challenges, particularly due to the curse of dimensionality. This limitation has hindered its application to high-dimensional problems, making even standard 3D spatial with 1D temporal problems computationally prohibitive. Additionally, the computational requirement increases exponentially with the discretization density of the domain. Here, to address these challenges and enhance scalability for high-dimensional PDEs, we introduce the Separable physics-informed DeepONet (Sep-PI-DeepONet). This framework employs a factorization technique, utilizing sub-networks for individual one-dimensional coordinates, thereby reducing the number of forward passes and the size of the Jacobian matrix required for gradient computations. By incorporating forward-mode automatic differentiation (AD), we further optimize computational efficiency, achieving linear scaling of computational cost with discretization density and dimensionality, making our approach highly suitable for high-dimensional PDEs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Sep-PI-DeepONet through three benchmark PDE models: the viscous Burgers’ equation, Biot’s consolidation theory, and a parameterized heat equation. Our framework maintains accuracy comparable to the conventional PI-DeepONet while reducing training time by two orders of magnitude. Notably, for the heat equation solved as a 4D problem, the conventional PI-DeepONet was computationally infeasible (estimated 289.35 h), while the Sep-PI-DeepONet completed training in just 2.5 h. These results underscore the potential of Sep-PI-DeepONet in efficiently solving complex, high-dimensional PDEs, marking a significant advancement in physics-informed machine learning.

Neural operator↗
DOE OSTI2020

Investigating the interconnectedness of active transportation and public transit usage as a primer for Mobility-as-a-Service adoption and deployment

With the advent of Mobility-as-a-Service packages to reduce car usage and (by extension) greenhouse gas emissions, it is crucial that researchers and practitioners consider mutual determinants and outcomes that link the adoption of multiple alternative modes. This study therefore investigates the joint usage of active travel (walking, cycling, bike-sharing) and public transit (bus, rail) modes with respect to personal and situational contexts. Online survey data (n = 826) were collected across six Midwestern U.S. states using Amazon MTurk. Respondents indicated their average weekly usage of eight travel modes across three trip purposes so that multimodality could be assessed. Several psychological constructs were extracted via (a) the stages of change framework, used to indicate willingness to adopt new behavior, and (b) confirmatory factor analysis conducted on Likert scales rooted in theories of community, identity, norms, personality, and well-being. A multiple-indicators multiple-causes structural equation model is then employed to investigate the process of adopting a modality style that incorporates active and transit modes. The model confirms that compatible physical and social contexts, as well as navigational skills and openness to learning, are key primers of multimodalism. However, a path juncture stemming from neighborhood support for mobility innovation illustrates a potential polarity in outcomes between individuals and communities. In addition, the stage of active mobility adoption is linked to identity and norm activation, offering further guidance on what influences readiness for change. The seamless integration of mobility services is critical to matching the convenience and comfort of the private vehicle; understanding potential pathways to sustainable mobility, though, requires analyses and interventions that are driven by well-being outcomes and grounded in rigorous psychological frameworks. Here, the research findings offer practical guidance for identifying intervention opportunities to be linked with MaaS enrollment while demonstrating the need to illuminate how mobility might relate to social cohesion, identity expression, and various sources of satisfaction.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Search for CP violation in events with top quarks and Z bosons at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 and 13.6 TeV

A search for the violation of the charge-parity (CP) symmetry in the production of top quarks in association with Z bosons is presented, using events with at least three charged leptons and additional jets. The search is performed in a sample of proton-proton collision data collected by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC in 2016–2018 at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV and in 2022 at 13.6 TeV, corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 173 fb –1 . For the first time in this final state, observables that are odd under the CP transformation are employed. Also for the first time, physics-informed machine-learning techniques are used to construct these observables. While for standard model (SM) processes the distributions of these observables are predicted to be symmetric around zero, CP-violating modifications of the SM would introduce asymmetries. Two CP-odd operators $\mathcal{O}$$^{I}_{tW}$ and $\mathcal{O}$$^{I}_{tZ}$ in the SM effective field theory are considered that may modify the interactions between top quarks and electroweak bosons. The obtained results are consistent with the SM prediction within two standard deviations, and exclusion limits on the associated Wilson coefficients of –2.7 < $c$$^{I}_{tW}$ < 2.5 and –0.2 < $c$$^{I}_{tZ}$ < 2.0 and are set at 95 % confidence level. The largest discrepancy is observed in $c$$^{I}_{tZ}$ where data is consistent with positive values, with an observed local significance with respect to the SM hypothesis of 2.5 standard deviations, when only linear terms are considered.

CMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational insights into hydrogen adsorption energies on medium-entropy oxides

High entropy oxides (HEOs) have emerged as promising catalysts for several important chemical transformations including alkane activation. Hydrogen adsorption energy (HAE) has been used as a key descriptor for many reactions including methane C–H activation and hydrogen evolution reactions. Hence, understanding the relationship between HAEs and the surface chemistry of HEO surfaces could lay the foundation for meaningful correlations among methane C–H activation, HAE, and the complex, local environment of HEO surfaces. Here, we used a medium-entropy oxide as a prototypical system – Mg 0.25 Ni 0.25 Cu 0.25 Zn 0.25 O with a rock-salt structure – to interrogate these relationships. We sampled 2000 different surfaces of its (100) plane and calculated the HAEs at randomly chosen surface O sites using density functional theory (DFT). Our analysis of the 2000 data points reveals that the HAEs at the surface O sites are significantly influenced by the local environment around the adsorption sites, particularly the nature of the metal atom directly below the surface O site where H adsorbs. After comparing several popular graph-neural-network-based machine learning models, we found that the DimeNet++ model performed best achieving satisfactory accuracy in predicting HAEs for both Mg 0.25 Ni 0.25 Cu 0.25 Zn 0.25 O and slightly varied compositions. Our work underscores the promise of such models and the need for further refinement to address the complexity of HEOs.

Song, Haohong [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (Un↗
DOE OSTI2020

Factors Impacting Nuclear Energy Share in U.S. Energy Markets

The purpose of this report is to collate information and findings from recent studies conducted by national and international bodies/institutes to identify approaches for maintaining/enhancing the role of nuclear energy in the current and future energy mix of the United States. This report shows how nuclear generation grew quickly to provide 20% of U.S. electricity, sustaining that level for three decades without the benefit of new construction, but is now projected to decline going forward. Nuclear construction costs in the U.S. spiraled out of control, ending construction for two decades and the recent resumption of construction has continued the pattern of schedule delays and cost overruns. However, nuclear operations exhibited strong learning, achieving and sustaining the highest capacity factor of any electricity generation technology and license extensions and uprates have sustained nuclear market share. The share of nuclear energy in the U.S. electricity market is projected to decline by ~1/3rd over the next 30 years The report provides an overview of how the markets work in theory and in practice. It indicates how market deregulation and clean energy policies have created conditions where nuclear plants are being retired for economic rather than technical reasons. The report also shows how many of the markets do not in practice have free competition but instead have outcomes that are being determined more and more by policy instead of market forces. While electricity costs from existing nuclear plants are low, electricity from new builds is projected to be too expensive to be competitive head-to-head with natural gas, even for nth-of-a-kind costs. Wind and solar energy have enjoyed an extended period of sustained subsidy. This protected environment has resulted in a sustained reduction in plant level costs to the point that some of these Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) technologies are becoming competitive even if their direct subsidies are removed. But plant level costs underestimate total VRE costs which include a number of system-level externalities. The incremental system value of additional VRE capacity was shown to decline as market share increases, with solar value declining more quickly than wind. The report closes with examination of a possible future for nuclear generation as part of deep decarbonization of the electricity sector. This approach avoids direct competition with natural gas. The two options for achieving 100% decarbonization are to use only renewables or to use all zero emissions technologies, and the report shows the second approach is much less expensive than the first.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗