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DOE OSTI2024

Improving North American Wildfire Prediction by Integrating a Machine-Learning Fire Model in a Land Surface Model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mapping causal patterns in crystalline solids

The evolution of the atomic structures of the combinatorial library of Sm-substituted thin film BiFeO 3 along the phase transition boundary from the ferroelectric rhombohedral phase to the non-ferroelectric orthorhombic phase is explored using scanning transmission electron microscopy. Localized properties, including polarization, lattice parameter, and chemical composition, are parameterized from atomic-scale imaging, and their causal relationships are reconstructed using a linear non-Gaussian acyclic model. This approach is further extended to explore the spatial variability of the causal coupling using the sliding window transform method, which revealed that new causal relationships emerged at both the expected locations, such as domain walls and interfaces, and at additional regions forming clusters in the vicinity of the walls or spatially distributed features. While the exact physical origins of these relationships are unclear, they likely represent nanophase-separated regions in the morphotropic phase boundaries. Overall, we posit that an in-depth understanding of complex disordered materials away from thermodynamic equilibrium necessitates understanding not only the generative processes that can lead to observed microscopic states but also the causal links between multiple interacting subsystems.

Causal inference↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic formation of preferentially lattice oriented, self trapped hydrogen clusters

Abstract A series of MD and DFT simulations were performed to investigate hydrogen self-clustering and retention in tungsten. Using a newly develop machine learned interatomic potential, spontaneous formation of hydrogen platelets was observed after implanting low-energy hydrogen into tungsten at high fluxes and temperatures. The platelets formed along low miller index orientations and neighboring tetrahedral and octahedral sites and could grow to over 50 atoms in size. High temperatures above 600 K and high hydrogen concentrations were needed to observe significant platelet formation. A critical platelet size of six hydrogen atoms was needed for long term stability. Platelets smaller than this were found to be thermally unstable within a few nanoseconds. To verify these observations, characteristic platelets from the MD simulations were simulated using large-scale DFT. DFT corroborated the MD results in that large platelets were also found to be dynamically stable for five or more hydrogen atoms. The LDOS from the DFT simulated platelets indicated that hydrogen atoms, particularly at the periphery of the platelet, were found to be at least as stable as hydrogen atoms in bulk tungsten. In addition, electrons were found to be localized around hydrogen atoms in the platelet itself and that hydrogen atoms up to 4.2 Å away within the platelet were found to share charge suggesting that the hydrogen atoms are interacting across longer distances than previously suggested. These results reveal a self-clustering mechanisms for hydrogen within tungsten in the absence of radiation induced or microstructural defects that could be a precursor to blistering and potentially explain the experimentally observed high hydrogen retention particularly in the near surface region.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrated System Planning: Emerging Software Requirements in the Power Industry

Power system planning software remains fragmented across organizational boundaries, with specialized tools for capacity expansion, production cost modeling, power flow, and dynamic analysis operating on incompatible data models and assumptions. This article argues that the fragmentation is not merely a technical problem but a predictable consequence of Conway's law: software architectures mirror the departmental structures within which they are developed. Regulatory milestones like Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 888 formalized these divisions, but the roots trace back to the distinct engineering disciplines-mechanical, chemical, and electrical-that staffed generation and transmission planning departments in vertically integrated utilities. As the industry moves toward integrated system planning (ISP) that coordinates generation, transmission, and distribution investment decisions, the software ecosystem must evolve accordingly. We identify five categories of software requirements to enable this transition: coherent data inputs decoupled from individual applications, unified and extensible data schemas, modular component representations that support multiple abstraction levels, lifecycle management of planning datasets, and well-defined application programming interface (API) contracts that separate data exchange from algorithmic control. We examine how these requirements interact with three common workflow patterns-serial gate clearing, sequential multiapplication, and convergence oriented-and discuss the interface design principles each demands. We then outline a vision for platform-based planning architectures where specialized analytical services compose through standardized interfaces and where artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) tools augment decision support within a disciplined software infrastructure. The practices proposed here offer a path from today's siloed tool collections toward collaborative planning ecosystems capable of handling the complexity of modern power system transformation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predictive Rules of Efflux Inhibition and Avoidance in Pseudomonas aeruginosa

Antibiotic-resistant bacteria rapidly spread in clinical and natural environments and challenge our modern lifestyle. A major component of defense against antibiotics in Gram-negative bacteria is a drug permeation barrier created by active efflux across the outer membrane. We identified molecular determinants defining the propensity of small peptidomimetic molecules to avoid and inhibit efflux pumps in Pseudomonas aeruginosa, a human pathogen notorious for its antibiotic resistance. Combining experimental and computational protocols, we mapped the fate of the compounds from structure-activity relationships through their dynamic behavior in solution, permeation across both the inner and outer membranes, and interaction with MexB, the major efflux transporter of P. aeruginosa. We identified predictors of efflux avoidance and inhibition and demonstrated their power by using a library of traditional antibiotics and compound series and by generating new inhibitors of MexB. The identified predictors will enable the discovery and optimization of antibacterial agents suitable for treatment of P. aeruginosa infections.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

INSPIRED: Inelastic neutron scattering prediction for instantaneous results and experimental design

Inelastic neutron scattering (INS) has unique advantages in probing how atoms vibrate and how the vibrations propagate and interact. Such dynamic information is crucial in understanding various material properties, from heat capacity, thermal conductivity, phase transitions, and chemical reactions to more exotic quantum behavior. The analysis and interpretation of the INS spectra often start from a model structure of the sample, followed by a series of calculations to obtain the simulated spectra to compare with experiments. The conventional way to perform such calculations usually requires significant time, computing resources, and specialized expertise. Here, we present a new program named INSPIRED (Inelastic Neutron Scattering Prediction for Instantaneous Results and Experimental Design), which enables users to perform rapid INS simulations in several different ways on their personal computers in just a few clicks, with the crystal structure as the only input file. Specifically, the users can choose a pre-trained symmetry-aware neural network (coupled with an autoencoder) to predict the phonon density of states (DOS), 1D S(E) and 2D S(|Q|,E) spectra for any given structure. One can also choose an existing density functional theory (DFT) calculation from a database (containing over 12,000 crystals), and quickly obtain the simulated INS spectra for single crystals and powders. It is also possible to use pre-trained universal machine learning force fields to relax a given crystal structure, calculate the phonon dispersion and DOS, and, subsequently, the INS spectra. All these functions are implemented with a PyQt graphic user interface. Finally, we expect these new tools will benefit broad user communities and significantly improve the efficiency of experiment design, execution, and data analysis for INS.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Knowledge Graph Framework for Organizing Heterogeneous Datasets for Utilization in Classical and Quantum Computing: Current Challenges and Future Directions

"The escalating impact of climate change induced extreme weather events in urban, suburban, and rural environments demands a rethink of how we have been using the single event-based or use-case-based knowledge graph models. The lack of representation in interaction within environmental variables found in literature led to the development of a novel framework that reflects the true nature of the interconnectedness in our environment. We propose an Environmental Interaction Knowledge Graph (EIKG) framework. This general EIKG framework works as the basis for interconnected environmental events by knitting interrelated events such as hurricanes leading to storm surges, which lead to flood events that could cause mudslides, landslides, etc., The cascading nature of one event leading to another related event in the environment requires an adequate understanding of each event using contextual information before conducting any data-driven analytics. This vision paper showcases how the EIKG:floods, EIKG:wildfire EIKG:landslides, etc, can be derived from a base case framework of EIKG as those individual events are interconnected with some common denominator variables. As an example, the precipitation variable is used in the flood case study as well as in the wildfire case study, as excessive precipitation levels lead to floods, and lack of precipitation leads to droughts and wildfires. We identify the precipitation variable as a “common-denominator-variable” in extreme weather events that play a key role in modeling the environment leading to different extreme weather events based on the variability of that variable (varying values where low precipitation leads to drought, and high values lead to floods). We use the insights gained from EIKG to conduct classical and Quantum Machine Learning (QML) based data analysis on the research questions developed. Our preliminary study shows how the Variational Quantum Classifier (VQC) and Quantum Support Vector Classifier (QSVC) are used along with the classical machine learning models to compare the model accuracies. Our study elaborates on how a quantitative analysis uses state-of-the-art machine learning techniques that include implementing both classical and quantum machine learning models and developing the knowledge graph. The EIKG is used to organize heterogeneous datasets and integrate the relations to case-specific extreme weather events such as floods. The study uses datasets such as county-to-country residential mobility data, socioeconomic datasets from the US Census Bureau, climate and weather-related Earth Observational data from NASA, and critical infrastructure data from the Homeland Infrastructure datasets."

Knowledge Graphs, Quantum Computing, Heterogenous ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep Electric Field Predictions by Drift-Reduced Braginskii Theory with Plasma-Neutral Interactions Based on Experimental Images of Boundary Turbulence

We present 2-dimensional turbulent electric field calculations via physics-informed deep learning consistent with (i) drift-reduced Braginskii theory under the framework of an axisymmetric fusion plasma with purely toroidal field and (ii) experimental estimates of the fluctuating electron density and temperature on open field lines obtained from analysis of gas puff imaging of a discharge on the Alcator C-Mod tokamak. The inclusion of effects from the locally puffed atomic helium on particle and energy sources within the reduced plasma turbulence model are found to strengthen correlations between the electric field and electron pressure. The neutrals are also directly associated with broadening the distribution of turbulent field amplitudes and increasing ${\bf E \times B}$ shearing rates. As a result, this demonstrates a novel approach in plasma experiments by solving for nonlinear dynamics consistent with partial differential equations and data without encoding explicit boundary nor initial conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-level optimization with the koopman operator for data-driven, domain-aware, and dynamic system security

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) like the power grid are critically important but also increasingly vulnerable; ensuring reliable system operation in the face of disruptions is becoming more and more challenging. Multi-Level Optimization (MLO) is a powerful way to model adversarial interactions, which naturally makes it applicable to studying CPS security. However, MLO typically does not address underlying system dynamics, and incorporating nonlinear dynamics is generally infeasible. In this paper, we show how to combine MLO with the Koopman Operator (KO) to remedy this. The KO maps nonlinear dynamics to a lifted space in which those dynamics are linear, thus making it ideal for use with MLO. Moreover, the structure of the KO also provides convenient ways to incorporate domain knowledge into the data-driven process of learning the KO representation of a given system. Here we then demonstrate the use of MLO-KO on a small example problem taken from the power grid domain, discuss the scalability and computational cost of MLO-KO, and identify future research directions for this work.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Industrial control system device classification using network traffic features and neural network embeddings

Characterization of modern cyber–physical Industrial Control System (ICS) devices is critical to the evaluation of their security posture and an understanding of the underlying industrial processes with which they interact. In this work, we address two related ICS device identification tasks: (1) separating ICS from non-ICS devices and (2) identifying specific ICS device types. We propose two distinct methods (one based on the existing IP2Vec method, and a novel traffic-features-based method) for achieving the first task. For transferability of the first task between two datasets, the traffic-features-based method performs significantly better (75% overall accuracy) compared to IP2Vec (22.5% overall accuracy). We further propose a novel method called DNP2Vec to address the second task. DNP2Vec is evaluated on two different datasets and achieves perfect multi-class classification accuracy (100%) for both datasets.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Properties of the new $ \mathcal{N} $ = 1 AdS 4 vacuum of maximal supergravity

The recent comprehensive numerical study of critical points of the scalar potential of four-dimensional N = 8, SO(8) gauged supergravity using Machine Learning software in [1] has led to a discovery of a new N = 1 vacuum with a triality-invariant SO(3) symmetry. Guided by the numerical data for that point, we obtain a consistent SO(3) × Z 2 -invariant truncation of the N = 8 theory to an N = 1 supergravity with three chiral multiplets. Critical points of the truncated scalar potential include both the N = 1 point as well as two new non-supersymmetric and perturbatively unstable points not found by previous searches. Studying the structure of the submanifold of SO(3) × Z 2 -invariant supergravity scalars, we find that it has a simple interpretation as a submanifold of the 14-dimensional Z $3\atop{2}$ -invariant scalar manifold (SU(1, 1)/U(1)) 7 , for which we find a rather remarkable superpotential whose structure matches the single bit error correcting (7, 4) Hamming code. This 14-dimensional scalar manifold contains approximately one quarter of the known critical points. We also show that there exists a smooth supersymmetric domain wall which interpolates between the new N = 1 AdS4 solution and the maximally supersymmetric AdS4 vacuum. Using holography, this result indicates the existence of an N = 1 RG flow from the ABJM SCFT to a new strongly interacting conformal fixed point in the IR.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1998

Learning from Automation Surprises and "Going Sour" Accidents: Progress on Human-Centered Automation

Advances in technology and new levels of automation on commercial jet transports has had many effects. There have been positive effects from both an economic and a safety point of view. The technology changes on the flight deck also have had reverberating effects on many other aspects of the aviation system and different aspects of human performance. Operational experience, research investigations, incidents, and occasionally accidents have shown that new and sometimes surprising problems have arisen as well. What are these problems with cockpit automation, and what should we learn from them? Do they represent over-automation or human error? Or instead perhaps there is a third possibility - they represent coordination breakdowns between operators and the automation? Are the problems just a series of small independent glitches revealed by specific accidents or near misses? Do these glitches represent a few small areas where there are cracks to be patched in what is otherwise a record of outstanding designs and systems? Or do these problems provide us with evidence about deeper factors that we need to address if we are to maintain and improve aviation safety in a changing world? How do the reverberations of technology change on the flight deck provide insight into generic issues about developing human-centered technologies and systems (Winograd and Woods, 1997)? Based on a series of investigations of pilot interaction with cockpit automation (Sarter and Woods, 1992; 1994; 1995; 1997a, 1997 b), supplemented by surveys, operational experience and incident data from other studies (e.g., Degani et al., 1995; Eldredge et al., 1991; Tenney et al., 1995; Wiener, 1989), we too have found that the problems that surround crew interaction with automation are more than a series of individual glitches. These difficulties are symptoms that indicate deeper patterns and phenomena concerning human-machine cooperation and paths towards disaster. In addition, we find the same kinds of patterns behind results from studies of physician interaction with computer-based systems in critical care medicine (e.g., Moll van Charante et al., 1993; Obradovich and Woods, 1996; Cook and Woods, 1996). Many of the results and implications of this kind of research are synthesized and discussed in two comprehensive volumes, Billings (1996) and Woods et al. (1994). This paper summarizes the pattern that has emerged from our research, related research, incident reports, and accident investigations. It uses this new understanding of why problems arise to point to new investment strategies that can help us deal with the perceived "human error" problem, make automation more of a team player, and maintain and improve safety.

Woods, David D.↗

DOE OSTI2022

East Asian Rainbands and Associated Circulation over the Tibetan Plateau Region

Abstract Rainbands that migrate northward from spring to summer are persistent features of the East Asian summer monsoon. This study employs a machine learning algorithm to identify individual East Asian rainbands from May to August in the 6-hourly ERA-Interim reanalysis product and captures rainband events during these months for the period 1979–2018. The median duration of rainband events at any location in East Asia is 12 h, and the centroids of these rainbands move northward continuously from approximately 28°N in late May to approximately 33°N in July, instead of making jumps between quasi-stationary periods. Whereas the length and overall area of the rainbands grow monotonically from May to June, the intensity of the rainfall within the rainband dips slightly in early June before it peaks in late June. We find that extratropical northerly winds on all pressure levels over East China are the most important anomalous flow accompanying the rainband events. The anomalous northerlies augment climatological background northerlies in bringing low moist static energy air and thus generate the front associated with the rainband. Persistent lower-tropospheric southerly winds bring in moisture that feeds the rainband and are enhanced a few days prior to rainband events, but they are not directly tied to the actual rainband formation. The background northerlies could originate as part of the Rossby waves resulting from the jet stream interaction with the Tibetan Plateau. The ageostrophic circulation in the jet entrance region peaks in May and weakens in June and July and does not prove to be critical to the formation of the rainbands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Thermodynamics of Restricted Boltzmann Machines and Related Learning Dynamics

We investigate the thermodynamic properties of a restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM), a simple energy-based generative model used in the context of unsupervised learning. Assuming the information content of this model to be mainly reflected by the spectral properties of its weight matrix W, we try to make a realistic analysis by averaging over an appropriate statistical ensemble of RBMs. First, a phase diagram is derived. Otherwise similar to that of the Sherrington–Kirkpatrick (SK) model with ferromagnetic couplings, the RBM’s phase diagram presents a ferromagnetic phase which may or may not be of compositional type depending on the kurtosis of the distribution of the components of the singular vectors of W. Subsequently, the learning dynamics of the RBM is studied in the thermodynamic limit. A “typical” learning trajectory is shown to solve an effective dynamical equation, based on the aforementioned ensemble average and explicitly involving order parameters obtained from the thermodynamic analysis. In particular, this let us show how the evolution of the dominant singular values of W, and thus of the unstable modes, is driven by the input data. At the beginning of the training, in which the RBM is found to operate in the linear regime, the unstable modes reflect the dominant covariance modes of the data. In the non-linear regime, instead, the selected modes interact and eventually impose a matching of the order parameters to their empirical counterparts estimated from the data. Finally, we illustrate our considerations by performing experiments on both artificial and real data, showing in particular how the RBM operates in the ferromagnetic compositional phase.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Aqueous Titania Interfaces

Water–metal oxide interfaces are central to many phenomena and applications, ranging from material corrosion and dissolution to photoelectrochemistry and bioengineering. In particular, the discovery of photocatalytic water splitting on TiO 2 has motivated intensive studies of water-TiO 2 interfaces for decades. So far, a broad understanding of the interaction of water vapor with several TiO 2 surfaces has been obtained. However, much less is known about liquid water–TiO 2 interfaces, which are more relevant to many practical applications. Probing these complex systems at the molecular level is experimentally challenging and is sometimes possible only through computational studies. This review summarizes recent advances in the atomistic understanding, mostly through computational simulations, of the structure and dynamics of interfacial water on TiO 2 surfaces. The main focus is on the nature, molecular or dissociated, of water in direct contact with low-index defect-free crystalline surfaces. The hydroxyls resulting from water dissociation are essential in the photooxidation of water and critically affect the surface chemistry of TiO 2.

density functional theory↗

DOE OSTI2023

Single-Point Extrapolation to the Complete Basis Set Limit through Deep Learning

Machine learning (ML) offers an attractive method for making predictions about molecular systems while circumventing the need to run expensive electronic structure calculations. Once trained on ab initio data, the promise of ML is to deliver accurate predictions of molecular properties that were previously computationally infeasible. In this work, we develop and train a graph neural network model to correct the basis set incompleteness error (BSIE) between a small and large basis set at the RHF and B3LYP levels of theory. Our results show that, when compared to fitting to the total potential, an ML model fitted to correct the BSIE is better at generalizing to systems not seen during training. We test this ability by training on single molecules while evaluating on molecular complexes. We also show that ensemble models yield better behaved potentials in situations where the training data is insufficient. However, even when only fitting to the BSIE, acceptable performance is only achieved when the training data sufficiently resemble the systems one wants to make predictions on. As a result, the test error of the final model trained to predict the difference between the cc-pVDZ and cc-pV5Z potential is 0.184 kcal/mol for the B3LYP density functional, and the ensemble model accurately reproduces the large basis set interaction energy curves on the S66x8 dataset.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Revealing the Hidden Third Dimension of Point Defects in Two-Dimensional MXenes

Point defects govern many important functional properties of two-dimensional (2D) materials. However, resolving the three-dimensional (3D) arrangement of these defects in multi-layer 2D materials remains a fundamental challenge, hindering rational defect engineering. Here, we overcome this limitation using an artificial intelligence-guided electron microscopy workflow to map the 3D topology and clustering of atomic vacancies in Ti3C2TX MXene. Our approach reconstructs the 3D coordinates of vacancies across hundreds of thousands of lattice sites, generating robust statistical insight into their distribution that can be correlated with specific synthesis pathways. This large-scale data enables us to classify a hierarchy of defect structures-from isolated vacancies to nanopores-revealing their preferred formation and interaction mechanisms, as corroborated by molecular dynamics simulations. This work provides a generalizable framework for understanding and ultimately controlling point defects across large volumes, paving the way for the rational design of defect-engineered functional 2D materials.

2D materials↗

DOE OSTI2023

Accurate prediction of global-density-dependent range-separation parameters based on machine learning

In this work, we develop an accurate and efficient XGBoost machine learning model for predicting the global-density-dependent range-separation parameter, ωGDD, for long-range corrected functional (LRC)-ωPBE. This ωGDDML model has been built using a wide range of systems (11 466 complexes, ten different elements, and up to 139 heavy atoms) with fingerprints for the local atomic environment and histograms of distances for the long-range atomic correlation for mapping the quantum mechanical range-separation values. The promising performance on the testing set with 7046 complexes shows a mean absolute error of 0.001 117 a0−1 and only five systems (0.07%) with an absolute error larger than 0.01 a0−1, which indicates the good transferability of our ωGDDML model. In addition, the only required input to obtain ωGDDML is the Cartesian coordinates without electronic structure calculations, thereby enabling rapid predictions. LRC-ωPBE(ωGDDML) is used to predict polarizabilities for a series of oligomers, where polarizabilities are sensitive to the asymptotic density decay and are crucial in a variety of applications, including the calculations of dispersion corrections and refractive index, and surpasses the performance of all other popular density functionals except for the non-tuned LRC-ωPBE. Finally, LRC-ωPBE (ωGDDML) combined with (extended) symmetry-adapted perturbation theory is used in calculating noncovalent interactions to further show that the traditional ab initio system-specific tuning procedure can be bypassed. The present study not only provides an accurate and efficient way to determine the range-separation parameter for LRC-ωPBE but also shows the synergistic benefits of fusing the power of physically inspired density functional LRC-ωPBE and the data-driven ωGDDML model.

Chemistry↗