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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Hybrid Analytics Solution for Power Plant Operations

Expert Microsystems, Inc., MapEx Software Inc. and XMPLR Energy LLC have teamed to submit a proposal to the US Department of Energy’s Office of Fossil Energy to improve the efficiency, reliability and flexibility of existing coal-based power plants. The project, titled Hybrid Analytics Solution to Improve Coal Power Plant Operations (the “Hybrid Analytics” project), will develop, demonstrate and commercialize a novel approach that integrates two proven real-time monitoring techniques. The Hybrid Analytics approach integrates into a single, integrated solution: a) an established, advanced data-driven analytics solution that includes artificial intelligence, advanced pattern recognition and machine-learning techniques and b) a well-proven, first principle thermal heat balance model solution. The future role of coal plants will depend on the ability to cycle and follow loads to meet marginal power demands, accommodate renewables and support the grid. Essential to success in this new role is a plant’s ability to maintain high reliability, efficiency and flexibility. However, these changing operational demands put significant stresses on power plant components that directly impact the ability to deliver these requirements. In the past, plants have independently monitored performance using physics-based solutions (heat rate, boiler losses, etc.) and reliability using data-driven analytics (advanced pattern recognition). The Hybrid Analytics solution integrates both approaches to enhance fault detection, provide automated diagnostics and estimates of remaining time to act, and provide critical, enhanced and accurate real-time information to coal plant operators. As a result, coal plants can improve efficiency, reliability, and flexibility and can cost-effectively maintain their key role in the power delivery system.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Various Polysulfone-nanodiamond Mixed-Matrix Membranes

Historically, coal combustion systems have contributed to the extensive network of energy production across the world. Oxycombustion has been shown to be more energy efficient and can facilitate carbon capture from fossil energy utilization. The challenge for small modular deployment of coal combustion or gasification systems is that current O2 enrichment technologies do not scale downward cost-effectively. Fortunately, membrane processes have been developed to offer a more viable polymer-based technology for this application. The central focus is to deliver a high-performance polymer membrane capable of enriching O2 to 90-95% in oxycombustion systems for small modular coal-based power or gasification plants. To accomplish this, various properties of polysulfone-nanodiamond mixed-matrix membrane are examined to determine the appropriate conditions for applicable use. The polymers are infused with nanoparticles to increase the mechanical functionality of the structure which in turn alters the permeability and selectivity of the membrane. Furthermore, the thermal history can also impact the functionality and characteristics of these polymer systems. This study primarily discusses the structure and function of these assorted membranes in terms of permeability and thermomechanical characteristics.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

sCO2 Primary Power Large-Scale Pilot Plant FEED Summary

Echogen Power Systems and its project partners the Electric Power Research Institute, CDM Smith, Riley Power Inc. (a Babcock Power Inc. company), and the University of Missouri completed the Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) study of a nominal 10 MWe supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) large-scale pilot plant based on Recompression Brayton Cycle (RCBC) architecture. The FEED study was completed under Phase II of the U.S. Department of Energy Fossil Fuel Large-Scale Pilots program. The FEED study scope included the preliminary design of the combustion and environmental control systems, the primary heater, the sCO2 power cycle and its associated turbomachinery, and the balance of plant equipment to determine accurate cost and schedule requirements for fabrication and installation of the system at the University of Missouri’s Combined Cooling, Heat, and Power Plant, located in Columbia, Missouri. The RCBC sCO2 cycle presents superior thermodynamic efficiency compared to steam-Rankine cycles and is adaptable to a broad range of heat sources. The risk aversion of the power generation industry requires a successful large-scale pilot plant demonstration to enable financing and deployment of commercial-scale plants. Therefore, successful construction and demonstration of a 10 MWe RCBC sCO2 power plant would empower a transformational step forward for the efficiency of the next generation of utility power plants. This paper provides details on the primary heater, environmental control systems, and sCO2 power cycle design and performance.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

It's Not Just About the Megawatts - ARC Industry Forum, The Future of Power Generation

As the world transitions to less carbon intensive energy portfolios, much of the attention understandably centers on generating capacity – replacing megawatts of fossil fuel with megawatts of solar, wind, nuclear, hydroelectric, hydrogen, and more. The actual operation of a reliable grid needs more than just megawatts though: adequate quantities of a portfolio of essential reliability services; flexible and capable power delivery systems; governance to operate in 5-10 minute intervals, forecast hourly, and plan and build on a generational time horizon; and dependable and secure communications. We can choose our fuel mix for climate reasons, but the grid itself and the society that relies upon it impose constraints on those choices that we ignore at our peril.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2011

The Energy Future - The Have's and the Have Not's (What can Jared Diamond tell us about the future of our wonderful little discovery?)

This presentation explains in a huge series of slides why nuclear power will necessarily be part of the sustainable, safe, CO{sub 2}-free, environmentally-friendly, job creating, economic and human energy future. It stresses on the strong environmental impacts and hazardous aspects of fossil fuels and of some renewable energy sources as well like wind- and hydro-power.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Gaseous fission product management for molten salt reactors and vented fuel systems

Fission gas disposal is one of the unresolved difficulties for Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) and advanced reactors with vented fuel systems. As these systems operate, they produce many radioactive isotopes of xenon and krypton (e.g. {sup 135}Xe t{sub 1/2} = 9.14 hours and {sup 85}Kr t{sub 1/2}= 10.73 years). Removing these gases proves vital to the success of such reactor designs for two reasons. First, the gases act as large neutron sinks which decrease reactivity and must be counterbalanced by increasing fuel loading. Second, for MSRs, inert fission product gases naturally separate quickly from high temperature salts, thus creating high vapor pressure which poses safety concerns. For advanced reactors with solid vented fuel, the gases are allowed to escape into an off-gas system and thus must be managed. Because of time delays in transport of fission product gases in vented fuel systems, some of the shorter-lived radionuclides will decay away thereby reducing the fission gas source term relative to an MSR. To calculate the fission gas source term of a typical molten salt reactor, we modeled a 1000 MWe graphite moderated thorium MSR similar to that detailed in Mathieu et al. [1]. The fuel salt used in these calculations was LiF (78 mole percent) - (HN)F 4 (22 mole percent) with a heavy nuclide composition of 3.86% {sup 233}U and 96.14% {sup 232}Th by mass. Before we can remove the fission product gases produced by this reactor configuration, we must first develop an appropriate storage mechanism. The gases could be stored in pressurized containers but then one must be concerned about bottle failure. Methods to trap noble gases in matrices are expensive and complex. Alternatively, there are direct storage/disposal options: direct injection into the Earth or injecting a grout-based product into the Earth. Advances in drilling technologies, hydro fracture technologies, and methods for the sequestration of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel plants are creating new options for disposal of fission gas wastes. In each option, lithostatic pressure, a kilometer or more underground, eliminates the pressure driving force for noble gas release and dissolves any untrapped gas in deep groundwater or into incorporated solid waste forms. The options, challenges, and potential for these methods to dispose of gaseous fission products are described. With this research, we hope to help both MSRs and other advanced reactors come one step closer to commercialization. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Conceptual System Design of a Supercritical CO{sub 2} cooled Micro Modular Reactor - 18492

Small modular reactor (SMR) concepts proposed in the past have compact size and a longer life reactor core than the conventional nuclear power plants. However, previous concepts based on the water-cooled technologies with a steam Rankine cycle have shown that the complete modularization is still technically challenging. This study suggests an innovative concept of a reactor directly cooled by supercritical carbon dioxide (S-CO{sub 2}) with S-CO{sub 2} Brayton cycle as a power conversion system, namely KAIST MMR (Micro Modular Reactor). To enhance neutron economy and maximize the fuel volume fraction of the core, a uranium carbide fuel controlled by drum type control rods was used in the fast-spectrum MMR. The core has long life (20 years) without refueling or reshuffling as well as inherent safety features. The reactor can be used as a distributed power source, and replace outdated fossil fuel power plants for small cities. Moreover, we propose a S-CO{sub 2} Brayton cycle as a power conversion system to achieve small, high performance and lightweight module. Thanks to the compact core and power conversion system, the entire system can be contained in a single module. The target of the system is to achieve small and compact system that can be transported via ground transportation of a single module containing the core and the power conversion system altogether. In order to meet this target single module s total weight is minimized in the order of 150 tons. The external size of a module is less than 7 m in length and 4 m in diameter. It produces 12 MWe electricity from 36 MWt reactor core. The S-CO{sub 2} Brayton cycle was optimized, and the cycle components were designed while maximizing the performance and minimizing the weight. A passive decay heat removal system utilizing shell and tube heat exchangers was also developed, and examined its performance with transient analysis code. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Synthesis and Adsorption Studies of a Novel Bifunctional Uranium Chelator

With catastrophic effects of climate change already being experienced around the world, there is an ever-growing need to transition away from fossil fuel-centric energy production to means that are more environmentally conscious. Since nuclear energy is the only mature, scalable technology that is capable of large-scale energy production with negligible environmental externalities, there has been much interest in securing a stable supply of uranium to meet worldwide nuclear energy demand. The amount of uranium in conventional deposits, however, is limited to only 100 years if used at current consumption rates. Containing well over 4.5 billion tons of uranium, earth's oceans represent a nearly infinite supply. The work described herein is concerned with the front-end of the nuclear fuel cycle; that is, the development of strategies for accumulating raw uranium feedstock from the ocean for further enrichment and refining. The objective of this work is to design, synthesize, and characterize a bifunctional chelating ligand containing a carboxylic acid and an amidoxime functionality orientated for optimal uranyl binding. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Nuclear Fuel Cycle Simulator as a Means to Model a Nuclear Hybrid Energy System

With a growing concern for how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions impact climate change, there is a clear value in minimizing reliance on fossil fuels. Fluctuating renewable energy sources continue to penetrate the grid at higher levels. One means of ensuring a reliable electricity supply, while maintaining low overall GHG emissions, is to couple a nuclear power plant to the fluctuating renewable electricity source. Nuclear hybrid energy systems (NHES) focus on combining renewable and nuclear generation with industrial processes to ensure reliable energy generation as well as profitability of the system as a whole. This paper analyzes the current state of NHES models, and suggests how a nuclear fuel cycle simulator (NFCS) could be used to quickly model a nuclear hybrid energy system to address long term policy concerns. NFCSs are used to model the nuclear fuel cycle, which consists of uranium mining, enrichment, the reactor, reprocessing, and long term storage of waste. The simulations can span over hundreds of years to demonstrate different approaches to managing costs, waste disposal, and proliferation concerns. Current NHES models, on the other hand, focus on shorter time periods, primarily on a daily to weekly scale, and answer questions surrounding feasibility and costs for both normal and extreme scenarios. First, this paper will discuss the different criterion that are important to modeling a NHES. Then, we will break down the characteristics of a NFCS, analyzing how the characteristics of NHES and the fuel cycle overlap. After discussing the current modeling approaches for NHES and NFCS, this paper will analyze the benefits of using a NFCS to model a NHES. This paper will conclude that a NFCS, if appropriately augmented to account for the dynamic aspects of a NHES, can produce a flexible, high level NHES model quickly.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Using Dynamic Line Rating to Enhance Flexibility of Wind-involved Hybrid Energy System

By providing real-time overhead line ampacity, Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) is a potential technique to solve the transmission congestion issues that are threatening NPPs, especially when a nuclear plant is coupled with wind turbine generators. First, DLR can utilize the concurrent cooling effect and dynamic monitors on transmission lines to increase the line carry capacity and reduce congestion. Second, more frequent interactions between transmission lines and operators can increase the flexibility and create a more dynamic and responsive hybrid system. In general, DLR can increase the flexibility and optimize the efficiency of a hybrid system utilizing wind energy. DLR helps meet continuously fluctuating electricity demands with real-time observation of transmission lines for more accurate estimation of line carry capacity. For the fuel energy, DLR can contribute greatly in saving fuels and reducing carbon emission by providing timely information for adjusting generation levels. For HES's including NPPs, transmission congestion could be more serious and needs attention. Therefore, by providing additional transmission capacity, DLR can contribute to alleviate the congestion and congestion pricing impact that is threatening the current NPPs and prevent potential congestion that may constrain the operation of future hybrid system involved with a nuclear plant. However, either a fuel plant or nuclear plant is better coupled with a wind turbine to take advantage of the concurrent cooling effect and dynamic monitoring. The research team at Idaho National Laboratory, currently focused on the benefit of DLR technology to assist wind generation, is now exploring the feasibility of implementing the same technology into such HES and NPP. Future work will focus on the analysis of technique feasibility, challenges and benefit-cost analysis of integrating DLR into HES. Detailed studies are anticipated to evaluate the benefits of DLR on HES and NPP with transmission constraints. This paper explores a potential utilization of DLR in hybrid energy systems, especially those involving traditional fossil fuels or nuclear power coupled with wind energy. The goal is to increase the efficiency and flexibility of these types of hybrid systems in order to provide more secure, reliable and low-carbon energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

An Evaluation of Energy Storage Options for Nuclear Power

The dynamics of energy generation, delivery, and consumption in the United States continue to change as new energy sources come online and consumers purchase more energy-intensive devices. The percentage of electricity generation from variable renewable energy sources like wind and solar power has grown year after year. Meanwhile, the evolution of electric vehicles, smart devices, and consumer appliances is changing the way that electricity is used. As a result of these trends, nuclear power plants (NPPs) are being asked to operate more flexibly. Newly constructed, advanced nuclear power plants (A-NPPs) will likely need to adapt their business models with these market shifts in mind. In the future, A-NPPs might operate in an electricity system that values flexibility (e.g. fast ramping) more than stability (e.g. baseload supply). The current fleet of NPPs is struggling to remain economically viable in competitive markets that favor low natural gas prices and renewable energy sources with low marginal costs. Rising construction costs and ambiguous national policies have only added to the challenges facing plant operators. The industry as a whole is in decline, with 19 reactors in the process of being decommissioned and 5 of these plants retiring in the past decade. However, NPPs also provide several performance and environmental benefits by maintaining a high capacity factor and generating almost zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the life cycle of the plant. As more areas of energy consumption in the United States are electrified, NPPs could potentially replace coal and natural gas as a source of heat and power to help decarbonize the U.S. energy mix. Improving the flexibility of newly constructed A-NPPs to increase revenue through market hedging and reduce costs via stable operation was explored in this analysis. The increasing penetration of variable energy resources could contribute to the uncertainty of electricity demand, which could in turn increase the need for dispatchable electricity generating units. This role is currently filled by inexpensive natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants, whereas coal and NPPs have traditionally been called upon to provide baseload power by maintaining a constant power output. As wholesale electricity prices continue to fall due to low natural gas prices and federally subsidized renewable energy, this business model has begun to fail, resulting in incidences of NPPs selling electricity at a loss. Since it has not been economically favorable for NPPs to operate flexibly in this situation in the past, due to their low variable costs compared to fossil fuel power plants, NPPs in the United States were not built with this purpose in mind. Therefore, legacy NPPs have had difficulty adapting to these shifting dynamics due to regulatory and technical constraints, coupled with a lack of meaningful experience. NPPs in France have operated in this manner for years, due to a much higher percentage of baseload generators and a lower percentage of fast-ramping NGCC plants. The integration of energy storage technologies (ESTs) alongside newly constructed A-NPPs will be investigated in this analysis as an alternative method for helping NPPs resolve the economic challenges they currently face. Although the deregulation of energy markets in the United States is responsible for much of the increased competition from natural gas and renewable energy that has negatively impacted NPPs, this process has also led to the creation of ancillary service markets. ESTs can provide many of these services, so an integrated energy storage system could supplement both the reliability of the electricity grid and the economic performance of a NPP by bidding into these markets. However, many technical, financial, and regulatory barriers still prevent ESTs from operating profitably in this space. The purpose of this body of work is to compile a transparent database of metrics for available ESTs and identify barriers to widespread deployment. An analytical selection methodology was also developed to identify favorable technologies for integration with specific NPPs based on information supplied by an interested developer. These tools could help reduce the perceived risk surrounding investment in energy storage systems, which could help both NPPs in need of economic assistance and ESTs in need of further research and development.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Size Up or Size Down? National Analysis of Heat Pump Sizing and Impacts

Electrification of on-site fossil fuel combustion in buildings is recognized as a key component of achieving global greenhouse gas emissions targets. Air-source heat pumps are an efficient approach for space heating electrification. However, a major barrier to heat pump adoption is the high installation cost relative to furnaces and air conditioners. Because the installation cost of heat pumps - especially cold climate models - is dependent on their size, it is important to understand the distribution of heat pump sizes using different sizing methods and factors that impact heat pump sizing. In this study, we use sub-hourly physics simulations of 550,000 statistically representative dwelling units to analyze the distribution of heat pump size in the U.S. for three different efficiency levels of heat pumps, with and without building insulation and air sealing upgrades. We will present results from the national analysis of different factors affecting heat pump sizing along with the impact of sizing decisions on upgrade costs and operating costs.

electrification↗
DOE OSTI2010

ADVANCED CERAMIC MATERIALS FOR NEXT-GENERATION NUCLEAR APPLICATIONS

Rising global energy demands coupled with increased environmental concerns point to one solution; they must reduce their dependence on fossil fuels that emit greenhouse gases. As the global community faces the challenge of maintaining sovereign nation security, reducing greenhouse gases, and addressing climate change nuclear power will play a significant and likely growing role. In the US, nuclear energy already provides approximately one-fifth of the electricity used to power factories, offices, homes, and schools with 104 operating nuclear power plants, located at 65 sites in 31 states. Additionally, 19 utilities have applied to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for construction and operating licenses for 26 new reactors at 17 sites. This planned growth of nuclear power is occurring worldwide and has been termed the 'nuclear renaissance.' As major industrial nations craft their energy future, there are several important factors that must be considered about nuclear energy: (1) it has been proven over the last 40 years to be safe, reliable and affordable (good for Economic Security); (2) its technology and fuel can be domestically produced or obtained from allied nations (good for Energy Security); and (3) it is nearly free of greenhouse gas emissions (good for Environmental Security). Already an important part of worldwide energy security via electricity generation, nuclear energy can also potentially play an important role in industrial processes and supporting the nation's transportation sector. Coal-to-liquid processes, the generation of hydrogen and supporting the growing potential for a greatly increased electric transportation system (i.e. cars and trains) mean that nuclear energy could see dramatic growth in the near future as we seek to meet our growing demand for energy in cleaner, more secure ways. In order to address some of the prominent issues associated with nuclear power generation (i.e., high capital costs, waste management, and proliferation), the worldwide community is working to develop and deploy new nuclear energy systems and advanced fuel cycles. These new nuclear systems address the key challenges and include: (1) extracting the full energy value of the nuclear fuel; (2) creating waste solutions with improved long term safety; (3) minimizing the potential for the misuse of the technology and materials for weapons; (4) continually improving the safety of nuclear energy systems; and (5) keeping the cost of energy affordable.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2014

U.S. emissions of HFC-134a derived for 2008-2012 from an extensive flask-air sampling network: US emissions of HFC-134a

U.S. national and regional emissions of HFC-134a are derived for 2008-2012 based on atmospheric observations from ground and aircraft sites across the U.S. and a newly developed regional inverse model. Synthetic data experiments were first conducted to optimize the model assimilation design and to assess model-data mismatch errors and prior flux error covariances computed using a maximumlikelihood estimation technique. The synthetic data experiments also tested the sensitivity of derived national and regional emissions to a range of assumed prior emissions, with the goal of designing a system that was minimally reliant on the prior. We then explored the influence of additional sources of error in inversions with actual observations, such as those associated with background mole fractions and transport uncertainties. Estimated emissions of HFC-134a range from 52 to 61 Gg yr -1 for the contiguous U.S. during 2008-2012 for inversions using air transport from Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model driven by the 12km resolution meteorogical data from North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM12) and all tested combinations of prior emissions and background mole fractions. Estimated emissions for 2008-2010 were 20% lower when specifying alternative transport from Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model driven by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorology. Our estimates (for HYSPLIT-NAM12) are consistent with annual emissions reported by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the full study interval. The results suggest a 10-20% drop in U.S. national HFC-134a emission in 2009 coincident with a reduction in transportation-related fossil fuel CO 2 emissions, perhaps related to the economic recession. All inversions show seasonal variation in national HFC-134a emissions in all years, with summer emissions greater than winter emissions by 20-50%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

The response of ENSO flavors to mid‐Holocene climate: Implications for proxy interpretation

Abstract The response of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to mid‐Holocene boundary conditions remains an open question: paleoclimate proxies and climate model simulations do not agree in the magnitude of the reduction of ENSO variability, while recent proxy evidence from fossil corals from the central Pacific show that the reduction in mid‐Holocene ENSO variability compared to the end of the twentieth century is not different from the reduction during other Holocene time intervals. This is inconsistent with the interpretation of lake and ocean sediment records from the eastern Pacific, which show a significant reduction compared to all other Holocene periods. In order to reconcile the seemingly conflicting proxy evidence from the eastern and central Pacific, we hypothesize that ENSO remained active during the mid‐Holocene; however, there was a change in the spatial pattern of the sea surface temperature anomalies, also known as ENSO flavors. Using National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate System Model version 4 forced with mid‐Holocene orbital conditions, we find that the frequency of occurrence of the strongest eastern Pacific (EP) events decreases in the mid‐Holocene and their variance is reduced by ∼30%, while the frequency of central Pacific (CP) events slightly increases and their variance does not change. We also find a shift in the seasonality of EP events, but not in that of CP events. Lastly, mid‐Holocene EP events develop more slowly and decay faster. The differential response of ENSO flavors to mid‐Holocene forcing is remotely forced by the West Pacific, where a weakening of the trade winds in early boreal spring in the mid‐Holocene initiates an anomalous downwelling annual Kelvin wave, which reaches the eastern Pacific during the ENSO development season, weakens the upper ocean stratification, and results in reduced ENSO upwelling feedback. The simulated reduction in the EP flavor versus the CP flavor in the mid‐Holocene is consistent with proxy evidence: The teleconnection patterns of the two flavors with temperature, precipitation, and salinity are distinct, and proxies from different regions of the Pacific might be recording variability associated with only one of the flavors, or some combination of their relative effects.

Karamperidou, Christina↗
DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty in gridded CO 2 emissions estimates

We are interested in the spatial distribution of fossil-fuel-related emissions of CO 2 for both geochemical and geopolitical reasons, but it is important to understand the uncertainty that exists in spatially explicit emissions estimates. Working from one of the widely used gridded data sets of CO 2 emissions, we examine the elements of uncertainty, focusing on gridded data for the United States at the scale of 1° latitude by 1° longitude. Uncertainty is introduced in the magnitude of total United States emissions, the magnitude and location of large point sources, the magnitude and distribution of non-point sources, and from the use of proxy data to characterize emissions. For the United States, we develop estimates of the contribution of each component of uncertainty. At 1° resolution, in most grid cells, the largest contribution to uncertainty comes from how well the distribution of the proxy (in this case population density) represents the distribution of emissions. In other grid cells, the magnitude and location of large point sources make the major contribution to uncertainty. Uncertainty in population density can be important where a large gradient in population density occurs near a grid cell boundary. Uncertainty is strongly scale-dependent with uncertainty increasing as grid size decreases. In conclusion, uncertainty for our data set with 1° grid cells for the United States is typically on the order of ±150%, but this is perhaps not excessive in a data set where emissions per grid cell vary over 8 orders of magnitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Increased influence of nitrogen limitation on CO 2 emissions from future land use and land use change

Abstract In the latest projections of future greenhouse gas emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), few Earth System Models included the effect of nitrogen limitation, a key process limiting forest regrowth. Few included forest management (wood harvest). We estimate the impacts of nitrogen limitation on the CO 2 emissions from land use and land use change (LULUC), including wood harvest, for the period 1900–2100. We use a land surface model that includes a fully coupled carbon and nitrogen cycle and accounts for forest regrowth processes following agricultural abandonment and wood harvest. Future projections are based on the four Representation Concentration Pathways used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and we account for uncertainty in future climate for each scenario based on ensembles of climate model outputs. Results show that excluding nitrogen limitation will underestimate global LULUC emissions by 34–52 PgC (20–30%) during the 20th century (range across three different historical LULUC reconstructions) and by 128–187 PgC (90–150%) during the 21st century (range across the four IPCC scenarios). The full range for estimated LULUC emissions during the 21st century including climate model uncertainty is 91 to 227 PgC (with nitrogen limitation included). The underestimation increases with time because (1) projected annual wood harvest rates from forests summed over the 21st century are 380–1080% higher compared to those of the 20th century, resulting in more regrowing secondary forests; (2) nitrogen limitation reduces the CO 2 fertilization effect on net primary production of regrowing secondary forests following wood harvest and agricultural abandonment; and (3) nitrogen limitation effect is aggravated by the gradual loss of soil nitrogen from LULUC disturbance. Our study implies that (1) nitrogen limitation of CO 2 uptake is substantial and sensitive to nitrogen inputs; (2) if LULUC emissions are larger than previously estimated in studies without nitrogen limitation, then meeting the same climate mitigation target would require an equivalent additional reduction of fossil fuel emissions; (3) the effectiveness of land‐based mitigation strategies will critically depend on the interactions between nutrient limitations and secondary forests resulting from LULUC; and (4) it is important for terrestrial biosphere models to consider nitrogen constraint in estimates of the strength of future land carbon uptake.

Meiyappan, Prasanth↗