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At least 1,189 records · Page 66

Forecasting Safe or Dangerous Space Weather from HMI Magnetograms

We have developed a space-weather forecasting tool using an active-region free-energy proxy that was measured from MDI line-of-sight magnetograms. To develop this forecasting tool (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather Journal, in press), we used a database of 40,000 MDI magnetograms of 1300 active regions observed by MDI during the previous solar cycle (cycle 23). From each magnetogram we measured our free-energy proxy and for each active region we determined its history of major flare, CME and Solar Particle Event (SPE) production. This database determines from the value of an active region s free-energy proxy the active region s expected rate of production of 1) major flares, 2) CMEs, 3) fast CMEs, and 4) SPEs during the next few days. This tool was delivered to NASA/SRAG in 2010. With MDI observations ending, we have to be able to use HMI magnetograms instead of MDI magnetograms. One of the difficulties is that the measured value of the free-energy proxy is sensitive to the spatial resolution of the measured magnetogram: the 0.5 /pixel resolution of HMI gives a different value for the free-energy proxy than the 2 /pixels resolution of MDI. To use our MDI-database forecasting curves until a comparably large HMI database is accumulated, we smooth HMI line-of-sight magnetograms to MDI resolution, so that we can use HMI to find the value of the free-energy proxy that MDI would have measured, and then use the forecasting curves given by the MDI database. The new version for use with HMI magnetograms was delivered to NASA/SRAG (March 2011). It can also use GONG magnetograms, as a backup.

Falconer, David↗

Probabilistic Hazard Assessment for Tornadoes, Straight-Line Wind, and Extreme Precipitation at the Savannah River Site

Recent data sets for three meteorological phenomena with the potential to inflict damage on SRS facilities – tornadoes, straight-line winds, and heavy precipitation – are analyzed using appropriate statistical techniques to estimate the occurrence probabilities for these events in the future. Summaries of the results for DOE-mandated return periods and comparisons to similar calculations performed in 2013 by Werth et al. (W2013) are given. Using tornado statistics for i) the combined states of Georgia and South Carolina, and ii) a 2⁰ square area surrounding SRS, we calculated the probability per year of any location at SRS being struck by a tornado (the ‘strike’ probability) and the probability that any point will experience winds above set thresholds. The strike probability was calculated to be 7.04E-4 (1 chance in 1420) per year and tornadic wind speeds for DOE mandated return periods of 50,000 years (corresponding to wind design category 3 (WDC-3), and 125,000 years (meeting WDC-4) (USDOE, 2016) were estimated to be 132 mph and 147 mph, respectively. By contrast, default tornado wind speeds taken from ANSI/ANS-2.3-2011 are somewhat higher: 161 mph for return periods of 50,000 years and 173 mph every 125,000 years (ANS, 2011). Although the ANS and the SRS evaluation used the same basic model (Ramsdell and Rishel, 2007), the region defined in ANS 2.3 that encompasses the SRS also includes areas of the Great Plains and lower Midwest, regions with much higher occurrence frequencies of strong tornadoes. The SRS straight-line wind values associated with various return periods were calculated by fitting existing wind data to a GEV1 distribution and extrapolating the values for any return period from the tail of that function. For the DOE mandated return periods, we expect straight-line winds of 117 mph every 2500 years (the required WDC-3 standard) and 125 mph every 6250 years (WDC-4) at any point within the SRS. These values are similar to those from the ANS-2.3-2011 report, which has wind speeds of 125mph and 133 mph for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years, respectively. For extreme precipitation, we compared the fits of two different theoretical extreme-value distributions and applied the one that fit the data best for each of several accumulation periods. The DOE mandated 6-hr accumulated rainfall for return periods of 10,000 years (corresponding to precipitation design category 3 (PDC-3) and 25,000 years (PDC-4) were estimated as 9.1 inches and 10.1 inches, respectively. For the 24-hr rainfall return periods of 10,000 years and 25,000 years, total rainfall estimates were 12.02 inches and 13.17 inches, respectively, higher than comparable values provided in the W2013 report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of Benefits Associated With Projects and Technologies Supported by the Clean Transportation Program

The California Energy Commission's Clean Transportation Program (CTP) supports a wide range of alternative, low-carbon fuel and vehicle projects. This report improves upon the 2014 Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program (ARFVTP) Benefits Report(the former name of the Clean Transportation Program), which focused on two components of benefit calculation: expected benefits and market transformation benefits. The "expected benefits" are defined as benefits that accrue because of the direct displacement of petroleum-based fuels or vehicle technologies. The "market transformation benefits" accrue because of CTP funding shifting the underlying market dynamics and accelerating the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles. This report documents the updated methods used in the benefits analysis in 2014 and applies them for this 2021 Clean Transportation Program Benefits Report. The project team used data collected from CTP projects funded from 2009 to the third quarter of 2021 to estimate the benefits between 2021 and 2030. CTP projects valued at $\$898.3 million$ were assessed (out of $\$1.04 billion$ funded) to estimate expected benefits of 249 million gallons per year petroleum reduction and 2.79 million metric tons per year of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction in 2030. Market transformation benefits are additive to the expected benefits and were estimated with high and low ranges for the 315 relevant projects evaluated. The market transformation benefits' GHG reductions are estimated as 2.2 million to 6.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year and the petroleum reductions as 145.3 million to 671.5 million gasoline gallon equivalents per year in 2030. Combining both benefit types, the CTP projects can make significant progress toward meeting California's long-term GHG and petroleum fuel use reduction goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Effect of Quartz Aperture Covers on the Fluid Dynamics and Thermal Efficiency of Falling Particle Receivers

Falling particle receivers are an emerging technology for use in concentrating solar power systems. In this paper, quartz half-shells are investigated for use as full or partial aperture covers to reduce receiver thermal losses. Quartz half-shell aperture covers offer the ability to minimally interfere with incoming solar radiation from the heliostat field while obstructing thermal radiation and advection from leaving the receiver cavity. The fluid dynamics and heat transfer of a receiver subdomain and surrounding air are modeled using ANSYS®FLUENT We compare the percentage of total incident solar power lost due to conduction through the receiver walls, advective losses through the aperture, and radiation exiting the aperture. Contrary to expected outcomes, results show that quartz aperture covers can increase radiative losses and result in modest to nonexistent reductions in advective losses. The increased radiative losses are driven by elevated quartz half-shell temperatures and have the potential to be mitigated by active cooling and/or material selection. Quartz half-shell total transmissivity was measured experimentally using a radiometer and the National Solar Thermal Test Facility heliostat field with values up to 0.97 ± 0.01. Quartz half-shell aperture covers did not yield expected efficiency gains in numerical results due to increased radiative losses, but efficiency improvement in some numerical results and the performance of quartz half-shells subject to concentrated solar radiation suggest that quartz half-shell aperture covers should be investigated further.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity

The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.

Schatten, Kenneth H.↗

Ground testing at MSFC

The large-scale field collection of acoustic data and their analysis are described in this review. The entire sound-field program has the purpose of solving complex problems of excessive noise propagation associated with the static test firing of large space-booster powerplants. The site of data collection has been Mississippi Test Facility (MTF), where far-field sound-propagation and correlated meteorological measurements were initiated in 1962. The statistical evaluation of sound-measurement data shows that the polar distribution of sound in the springtime (at MTF) is determined mainly by the temperature field of the atmosphere. Greater deformation of sound-intensity polar distribution occurs in the autumn as a result of the influence of the wind field. The data on sound attenuation as a function of distance from its source revealed attenuation in excess of the expected magnitude. The excess was mainly between 1 and 10 kilometers from the source, with maximum attenuation (17 to 18 decibels) near 6 kilometers. Excess sound attenuation was compared with calculated sound dispersion. For all sound frequencies in all seasons the deviation between reference and empirical attenuation values formed a bell-shaped distribution on a semilogarithmic plot. The physical causes for the sound- attenuation behavior are considered to be atmospheric diffraction and scattering effects. Statistical analysis of sod-intensity extremes indicated amplification of the sound signals by focusing which could be expected along selected azimuths. Empirical amplification values showed the maximum occurring in winter (50 decibels at 22 kilometers). For the analysis of correlation between empirical sound data and local atmospheric sound- propagation conditions, #e concept of analytical classification of sound-velocity profiles has been developed. Examination of over a quarter-million individual sound-velocity profiles indicates that 33 profile types for heights up to 3 kilometers constitute the empirical possibilities of sound-propagation conditions in southeastern United States. Since the focusing qualities of each sound- velocity profile can be determined as a class characteristic, the overall probabilities of focusing occurrence can he obtained. The severity of focusing, as based upon lateral spread of focusing areas, has been determined. The data for MTF indicate focusing is most severe in winter, with the direction toward east being most affected. Sound propagation is a fluctuating phenomenon because atmospheric conditions vary continuously. A measuring system for analyzing the nonstationary sound-propagation phenomena has been established. The analysis of the acoustic fluctuation data is sup- posed to provide "dynamic” perturbation functions of sound, which are to be superimposed on the related characteristic sound-velocity-profile type. The ultimate result of the program will be the establishment of reliable contingency tables showing the relationship between atmospheric parameters and far-field sound intensities. These data will be the basis for more accurate sound-propagation forecasting for static firing tests.

STATIC TESTING↗

A new activity index for comets

An activity index (AI) is derived from observational data to measure the increase of activity in magnitudes for comets when brightest near perihelion as compared to their inactive reflective brightnesses at great solar distances. In all, AI determinations are made for 32 long-period (L-P) comets and for 14 short-period (S-P). The range of values of AI is the order of 3 to 10 magnitudes with a median about 6. An expected strong correlation with perihelion distance, q, was found to vary as approx. q(-2.3). Residuals from a least-square solution, delta AI, were used for comparing comets of different orbital classes, the standard deviation of a single value of delta AI was only plus or minus 1(m).1 for L-P comets and plus or minus 1(m)2 for S-P comets. Among the L-P comets, 19 of Period, P greater than 10(exp 4) yr yielded delta AI greater than or equal to -0(m).27 compared to +0(m).39 for 13 of 10(exp 4) greater than P greater than 10(exp 2) yr. This denies any effect of aging among the L-P comets. The 14 S-P comets yielded (delta AI) less 0(m).3 plus or minus 0(m).3 than the 32 L-P comets. The results suggest a common actively level, nature and probably origin for comets of all orbits, sizes and ages.

Whipple, Fred L.↗

Quantum complexity of time evolution with chaotic Hamiltonians

We study the quantum complexity of time evolution in large-N chaotic systems, with the SYK model as our main example. This complexity is expected to increase linearly for exponential time prior to saturating at its maximum value, and is related to the length of minimal geodesics on the manifold of unitary operators that act on Hilbert space. Using the Euler-Arnold formalism, we demonstrate that there is always a geodesic between the identity and the time evolution operator e -iHt whose length grows linearly with time. This geodesic is minimal until there is an obstruction to its minimality, after which it can fail to be a minimum either locally or globally. We identify a criterion — the Eigenstate Complexity Hypothesis (ECH) — which bounds the overlap between offdiagonal energy eigenstate projectors and the k-local operators of the theory, and use it to argue that the linear geodesic will at least be a local minimum for exponential time. We show numerically that the large-N SYK model (which is chaotic) satisfies ECH and thus has no local obstructions to linear growth of complexity for exponential time, as expected from holographic duality. In contrast, we also study the case with N = 2 fermions (which is integrable) and find short-time linear complexity growth followed by oscillations. Our analysis relates complexity to familiar properties of physical theories like their spectra and the structure of energy eigenstates and has implications for the hypothesized computational complexity class separations PSPACE * BQP/poly and PSPACE * BQSUBEXP/subexp, and the “fast-forwarding” of quantum Hamiltonians.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Fracture toughness and crack propagation in LX-17 and PBX 9502 insensitive high explosives

High explosive materials, and in particular insensitive high explosive (IHE) materials, are of significant interest. TATB-based LX-17 and PBX 9502 are two IHE’s and mechanical properties are an important metric of performance. In this work we present, for the first time, a study of fracture as a function of temperature and displacement rate and starter crack length on billet pressed IHE materials using a standard three point bend technique. We demonstrated that the technique can yield consistent results over time by measuring samples from the same lots 4 years later and observed that the fracture toughness of LX-17 and PBX 9502 are similar. We also determined the temperature dependence for different starter crack lengths and found that the fracture toughness generally decreases with larger starter crack sizes and temperatures. For the LX-17, where a wide temperature range of -60 C to 50 C was investigated, the impact of temperature on fracture toughness between -20 C and 23 C was less than expected. For the PBX 9502 we observed the difference in fracture toughness values between -20 C and 23 C did depend on the particular lot, and also there was a tendency of the fracture toughness to scale with the tensile strength. We also investigated the effect of a lower displacement rate and observed that while the impact on the fracture toughness was relatively small, the samples surprisingly did not break (fail) after exceeding the peak load. We took advantage of this to perform x-ray computed tomography (CT) of the samples to image crack propagation in the intact samples. We observed that cracks were generally straight and unaffected by the microstructure in the LX-17, in contrast to the PBX 9502 where the direction of the cracks would frequently change and were likely influenced by the underlying microstructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Electrochemical Observation and pH Dependence of All Three Expected Redox Couples in an Extremophilic Bifurcating Electron Transfer Flavoprotein with Fused Subunits

Bifurcating enzymes employ energy from a favorable electron transfer to drive unfavorable transfer of a second electron, thereby generating a more reactive product. They are therefore highly desirable in catalytic systems, for example, to drive challenging reactions such as nitrogen fixation. While most bifurcating enzymes contain air-sensitive metal centers, bifurcating electron transfer flavoproteins (bETFs) employ flavins. However, they have not been successfully deployed on electrodes. Herein, we demonstrate immobilization and expected thermodynamic reactivity of a bETF from a hyperthermophilic archaeon, Sulfolobus acidocaldarius (SaETF). SaETF differs from previously biochemically characterized bETFs in being a single protein, representing a concatenation of the two subunits of known ETFs. However, SaETF retains the chemical properties of heterodimeric bETFs, including possession of two FADs: one that undergoes sequential 1-electron (1e) reductions at high E° and forms an anionic semiquinone, and another that is amenable to lower-E° 2e reduction, including by NADH. We found homologous monomeric ETF genes in archaeal and bacterial genomes, accompanied by genes that also commonly flank heterodimeric ETFs, and SaETF’s sequence conservation is 50% higher with bETFs than with canonical ETFs. Thus, SaETF is best described as a bETF. Our direct electrochemical trials capture reversible redox couples for all three thermodynamically expected redox events. We document electrochemical activity over a range of pH values and reveal a conformational change coupled to proton acquisition that affects the electrochemical activity of the higher-E° FAD. Thus, this well-behaved monomeric bETF opens the door to bioinspired bifurcating devices or bifurcation on a chip.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Improving River Routing Using a Differentiable Muskingum‐Cunge Model and Physics‐Informed Machine Learning

Recently, rainfall-runoff simulations in small headwater basins have been improved by methodological advances such as deep neural networks (NNs) and hybrid physics-NN models—particularly, a genre called differentiable modeling that intermingles NNs with physics to learn relationships between variables. However, hydrologic routing simulations, necessary for simulating floods in stem rivers downstream of large heterogeneous basins, had not yet benefited from these advances and it was unclear if the routing process could be improved via coupled NNs. We present a novel differentiable routing method (δMC-Juniata-hydroDL2) that mimics the classical Muskingum-Cunge routing model over a river network but embeds an NN to infer parameterizations for Manning's roughness (n) and channel geometries from raw reach-scale attributes like catchment areas and sinuosity. The NN was trained solely on downstream hydrographs. Synthetic experiments show that while the channel geometry parameter was unidentifiable, n can be identified with moderate precision. With real-world data, the trained differentiable routing model produced more accurate long-term routing results for both the training gage and untrained inner gages for larger subbasins (>2,000 km2) than either a machine learning model assuming homogeneity, or simply using the sum of runoff from subbasins. The n parameterization trained on short periods gave high performance in other periods, despite significant errors in runoff inputs. The learned n pattern was consistent with literature expectations, demonstrating the framework's potential for knowledge discovery, but the absolute values can vary depending on training periods. The trained n parameterization can be coupled with traditional models to improve national-scale hydrologic flood simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ultra-low magnetic damping in epitaxial Li 0.5 Fe 2.5 O 4 thin films

The realization of more energy efficient nanomagnetic information devices relies on the existence of magnetic insulators capable of supporting pure spin currents in the absence of a dissipative charge current. Currently, there is a limited number of thin-film magnetic insulators with low magnetic damping. Li 0.5 Fe 2.5 O 4 (LFO) is well known to possess the lowest damping among the bulk spinel structure oxides, but, thus far, LFO thin films have not lived up to these expectations. Here, we demonstrate low magnetic damping (even lower than typical bulk values) and bulk magnetization in 3 nm thick epitaxial LFO thin films. At room temperature, SQUID magnetometry shows a high saturation magnetization of 320 kA/m, and broadband ferromagnetic resonance measurements yield an effective Gilbert damping parameter of 1.3×10 -3 , which is among the lowest reported for ferro-/ferrimagnetic films of comparable thickness. Our results show the promise of LFO as a candidate material for spin current-based spintronics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Novel Measurement of the Neutron Magnetic Form Factor from A=3 Mirror Nuclei

The electromagnetic form factors of the proton and neutron encode information on the spatial structure of their charge and magnetization distributions. While measurements of the proton are relatively straightforward, the lack of a free neutron target makes measurements of the neutron's electromagnetic structure more challenging and more sensitive to experimental or model-dependent uncertainties. Various experiments have attempted to extract the neutron form factors from scattering from the neutron in deuterium, with different techniques providing different, and sometimes large, systematic uncertainties. We present results from a novel measurement of the neutron magnetic form factor using quasielastic scattering from the mirror nuclei 3 H and 3 He, where the nuclear effects are larger than for deuterium but expected to largely cancel in the cross-section ratios. We extracted values of the neutron magnetic form factor for low-to-modest momentum transfer, 0.6 < Q 2 < 2.9 GeV 2 , where existing measurements give inconsistent results. The precision and Q 2 range of these data allow for a better understanding of the current world’s data and suggest a path toward further improvement of our overall understanding of the neutron’s magnetic form factor.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The Effect of Radiation Damage on the Charge Collection Efficiency of Silicon Avalanche Photodiodes

Understanding radiation effects on avalanche photodiodes (APDs) is important because they are used in several applications involving harsh radiation environments. APDs are used as photosensors in applications where speed and detection efficiency are critical. Proton irradiation experiments on a commercial off-the-shelf APD demonstrated that the irradiation flux and applied reverse bias have a strong influence on the severity of radiation effects. This is measured using the ion beam induced charge (IBIC) technique in which charge collection efficiency (CCE) describes the signal response from a device. CCE can degrade substantially due to radiation damage, but recent measurements show that certain combinations of irradiation flux and reverse bias can lead to increases in CCE up to 186% ± 24% for irradiations with 2 MeV protons at a fluence of 6.4 × 10 11 cm –2 . This defect-enhanced charge multiplication (DECM) only appeared when the reverse bias during irradiation ranged from 170 to 1830 V out of a maximum operating bias of 2000 V and the proton flux ranged from 9.8 × 10 7 to 3.4 × 10 9 cm –2 s –1 . Furthermore values outside of either range led to losses in CCE. It is expected that DECM should be encountered in other devices, especially those with sufficiently high electric fields to cause impact ionization.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Patterns and controls on island‐wide aboveground biomass accumulation in second‐growth forests of Puerto Rico

Abstract Understanding the heterogeneity of biomass accumulation in second‐growth tropical forests following land use abandonment is important for informing ecosystem carbon models and forest restoration efforts. There is an urgent need for a broad sample of second‐growth forests to enhance our knowledge of carbon accumulation in human‐dominated landscapes, especially for older forests. Puerto Rico has predominantly second‐growth forests, ranging in age from approximately 25 to more than 80 years. We used an island‐wide sample of airborne lidar from the NASA Goddard Lidar, Hyperspectral, and Thermal (G‐LiHT) Airborne Imager collected on March 2017, forest inventory data, and data on forest age, precipitation, soils, and land use to estimate aboveground biomass stocks in moist and wet, second‐growth tropical forests. Biomass accumulation rates in Puerto Rico were lower, on average, than in other Neotropical forests. Median biomass across >16,700 ha of older second‐growth forests was 105 Mg ha −1 , and sampled biomass rarely surpassed 250 Mg ha −1 . Differences in biomass by age were large and persistent across different substrates and land uses, with a plateau in the pattern of island‐wide biomass accumulation after about 33 years. A spatial regression model showed that multiple factors were related to biomass accumulation, including time since abandonment, geologic substrate, past land use as coffee or pasture, precipitation, topographic wetness index, and slope. Our findings have important consequences for the total carbon storage and expected climate mitigation benefits of large‐scale reforestation efforts, and highlight the value of airborne lidar for quantifying biomass variability in complex tropical landscapes. Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The functional roles of species in metacommunities, as revealed by metanetwork analyses of bird–plant frugivory networks

Abstract Understanding how biodiversity and interaction networks change across environmental gradients is a major challenge in ecology. We integrated metacommunity and metanetwork perspectives to test species’ functional roles in bird–plant frugivory interactions in a fragmented forest landscape in Southwest China, with consequences for seed dispersal. Availability of fruit resources both on and under trees created vertical feeding stratification for frugivorous birds. Bird–plant interactions involving birds feeding only on‐the‐tree or both on and under‐the‐tree (shared) had a higher centrality and contributed more to metanetwork organisation than interactions involving birds feeding only under‐the‐tree. Moreover, bird–plant interactions associated with large‐seeded plants disproportionately contributed to metanetwork organisation and centrality. Consequently, on‐the‐tree and shared birds contributed more to metanetwork organisation whereas under‐the‐tree birds were more involved in local processes. We would expect that species’ roles in the metanetwork will translate into different conservation values for maintaining functioning of seed‐dispersal networks.

Li, Hai‐Dong↗

Verwey transition as evolution from electronic nematicity to trimerons via electron-phonon coupling

Understanding the driving mechanisms behind metal-insulator transitions (MITs) is a critical step toward controlling material’s properties. Since the proposal of charge order–induced MIT in magnetite Fe 3 O 4 in 1939 by Verwey, the nature of the charge order and its role in the transition have remained elusive. Recently, a trimeron order was found in the low-temperature structure of Fe 3 O 4 ; however, the expected transition entropy change in forming trimeron is greater than the observed value, which arises a reexamination of the ground state in the high-temperature phase. Here, we use electron diffraction to unveil that a nematic charge order on particular Fe sites emerges in the high-temperature structure of bulk Fe 3 O 4 and that, upon cooling, a competitive intertwining of charge and lattice orders arouses the Verwey transition. Our findings discover an unconventional type of electronic nematicity in correlated materials and offer innovative insights into the transition mechanism in Fe 3 O 4 via the electron-phonon coupling.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗