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At least 1,189 records · Page 66

Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite-and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected as a co-winner of NASA?s 2005 Software of the Year award.LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has e volved from two earlier efforts -- North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations.In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) for their land data assimilation systems to support weather and climate modeling. LIS not only consolidates the capabilities of these two systems, but also enables a much larger variety of configurations with respect to horizontal spatial resolution, input datasets and choice of land surface model through "plugins". LIS has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to support studies of land-atmosphere coupling be enabling ensembles of land surface states to be tested against multiple representations of the atmospheric boundary layer. LIS has also been demonstrated for parameter estimation, who showed that the use of sequential remotely sensed soil moisture products can be used to derive soil hydraulic and texture properties given a sufficient dynamic range in the soil moisture retrievals and accurate precipitation inputs.LIS has also recently been demonstrated for multi-model data assimilation using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for sequential assimilation of soil moisture, snow, and temperature.Ongoing work has demonstrated the value of bias correction as part of the filter, and also that of joint calibration and assimilation.Examples and case studies demonstrating the capabilities and impacts of LIS for hydrometeorological modeling, assimilation and parameter estimation will be presented as advancements towards the next generation of integrated observation and modeling systems

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.↗

Immersive Scientific Visualization of Molten-Salt Reactor Waste Characteristics Using Virtual Reality

Immersive visualization is changing how we explore, communicate, and understand complex scientific systems. In nuclear energy, an area in which data are often multidimensional, time-dependent, and difficult to interpret, virtual reality (VR) represents a powerful and intuitive informational medium. This work introduces a VR-based platform that visualizes the post-shutdown behavior and waste management lifecycle of molten-salt reactors (MSRs), a next-generation reactor type with unique operational and safety characteristics. The platform, built in Unity, is streamed on the Meta Quest 3 headset. It transforms high-fidelity simulation data into an interactive, immersive experience. Users can explore time-dependent reactor characteristics such as nuclide decay, which is a key factor for evaluating reactor waste strategies. The datasets were generated using the MOOSE (Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment) framework and then processed through ParaView scripting for smooth integration into Unity. From a visualization standpoint, the platform emphasizes spatial storytelling, temporal exploration, and user-centered interaction. Users can navigate 3D reactor geometries, slice through volumetric data, and manipulate time to observe how physical phenomena evolve. Real-scale rendering and embodied interaction make the experience feel tangible. The interface is designed to be accessible, even to those without nuclear or simulation expertise. This lowers the barrier for stakeholders, policymakers, and the general public, while still supporting expert analysis and collaborative decision-making. This work shows how immersive visualization can function as both a scientific tool and a communication interface. By integrating simulation, processing, and visualization into a cohesive workflow, we offer a scalable framework for immersive scientific storytelling. The modular design supports future extensions to other reactor types and lifecycle stages, from shutdown to long-term storage, making the platform adaptable for both research and outreach.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

FieLDS

Field Landscape Decision Support (FieLDS) is a decision support tool that assists agricultural producers and farm managers in selecting parts of the field that can be converted to bioenergy plants, like perennial grasses, from the conventional use, like corn or soybean growth. That conversion of parts of the field is done based on the specific landscape properties and the agricultural producer’s priorities. The decision support tool generates a map of the field layout and spatially marks where to place each plant based on the spatial input from the user. Also, the user selects which priorities (sustainability indicators) are most relevant to them in their decision-making. By allowing the user to set the weights among the priorities, the tool empowers the user to generate field designs specific to their needs instead of imposing the developer’s set of priorities, and increases the transparency of the decision process.

Vazhnik, Veronika↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-17243-DND

This presentation captures ERA Project's effort in using integrated cost-schedule-risk analysis tool, identifying and capturing explicit relationships between program funds, schedule, and discrete risks. The project team merged a myriad of cost and schedule data for timely, objective, uncertainty analysis of the ITD's budget and schedule. The project team conducted detailed schedule uncertainty analysis showing schedule activities and how their interrelationships were impacted, representing an impressive advance beyond routine Gantt charts. Furthermore, the ERA Project collected discrete risk events including their impacts to costs and/or schedule and interwove these risks into cost and schedule logic networks, providing the foundation to conduct cost and schedule analyses. The team integrated this data into the analysis model, providing probabilistic results that were then used by the ERA Project's senior management for decision-making purposes. The ERA Project management team, through technical and pathfinder expertise in integrating cost, schedule, risk, and technical content, consistently provided risk-informed recommendations to Implementing Centers and ISRP senior management which ultimately ensured the successful ARMD Key Decision Point (KDP) review of the ERA Phase 2 ITD Portfolio and increased the likelihood of achieving technical objectives within cost and schedule constraints.

Gaudy M Bezos-O'Connor↗

Threat expert system technology advisor

A prototype expert system was developed to determine the feasibility of using expert system technology to enhance the performance and survivability of helicopter pilots in a combat threat environment while flying NOE (Nap of the Earth) missions. The basis for the concept is the potential of using an Expert System Advisor to reduce the extreme overloading of the pilot who flies NOE mission below treetop level at approximately 40 knots while performing several other functions. The ultimate goal is to develop a Threat Expert System Advisor which provides threat information and advice that are better than even a highly experienced copilot. The results clearly show that the NOE pilot needs all the help in decision aiding and threat situation awareness that he can get. It clearly shows that heuristics are important and that an expert system for combat NOE helicopter missions can be of great help to the pilot in complex threat situations and in making decisions.

Kurrasch, E. R.↗

Identifying Executable Plans

Generating plans for execution imposes a different set of requirements on the planning process than those imposed by planning alone. In highly unpredictable execution environments, a fully-grounded plan may become inconsistent frequently when the world fails to behave as expected. Intelligent execution permits making decisions when the most up-to-date information is available, ensuring fewer failures. Planning should acknowledge the capabilities of the execution system, both to ensure robust execution in the face of uncertainty, which also relieves the planner of the burden of making premature commitments. We present Plan Identification Functions (PIFs), which formalize what it means for a plan to be executable, md are used in conjunction with a complete model of system behavior to halt the planning process when an executable plan is found. We describe the implementation of plan identification functions for a temporal, constraint-based planner. This particular implementation allows the description of many different plan identification functions. characteristics crf the ~xec~~tieonfvii r~nm-enft,h e best plan to hand to the execution system will contain more or less commitment and information.

Bedrax-Weiss, Tania↗

Integrating science for water security governance

Hydrological extremes are intensifying globally, increasing the complexity of decisions required to ensure water security. Advances in hydrological science, modeling, and data systems have expanded the technical frontier of water research, yet uptake of scientific insights in policy and management decisions remains limited. This persistent science–policy gap is not primarily a failure of knowledge generation or robustness, but an institutional challenge shaped by how scientific and governance systems are organized, coordinated, and connected to support the effective use of scientific knowledge. These challenges are particularly pronounced in multi-level and transboundary water governance, where decisions span jurisdictions and require coordination across institutional and political boundaries. We synthesize research at the science–policy interface and evidence from water security initiatives to show how institutional arrangements, scientific tool development, and research practices enable or constrain the sustained use of scientific knowledge in water-security governance processes. Building on these insights, we develop ‘shared decision infrastructure’ as a framing to describe how scientific knowledge is embedded within the institutional, relational, and procedural arrangements that connect science to decision-making processes over time. We translate this framing into a practical intervention roadmap centered on institutional design, tool translation, sustained co-production, and outcome-oriented evaluation to support the integration of science into ongoing governance processes. By positioning science as shared decision infrastructure, the roadmap clarifies how researchers can design scientific efforts that support more coordinated, accountable, and adaptive water security decisions amid deepening uncertainty.

M whitney, Kristen [NASA Goddard Space Flight Cent↗

Zero-Emissions Roadmap for Oakland County

This document outlines a strategic pathway for Oakland County, Michigan to achieve zero emissions by 2050 under the Clean Energy to Communities (C2C) Program. The report encompasses analyses and high-level modeling to guide Oakland County in its emission reduction goals. Key methods include establishing an emissions inventory baseline with ongoing evaluation of future projects’ emissions impacts. Core elements include decommissioning old infrastructure, enhancing energy efficiency, deploying hybrid and ground-source heat pumps, and transitioning to electric fleets. It is proposed to structure the planning process into 5-year strategic plans to make the decarbonization process manageable. The document also emphasizes the need for reassessment of goals and periodic updates to remain adaptive to technological advancements and funding considerations. A matrixed approach for evaluating projects by cost and emissions savings is suggested to optimize decision-making given finite resources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Inferred inflow forecast horizons guiding reservoir release decisions across the United States

Abstract. Medium- to long-range forecasts often guide reservoir release decisions to support water management objectives, including mitigating flood and drought risks. While there is a burgeoning field of science targeted at improving forecast products and associated decision support models, data describing how and when forecasts are applied in practice remain undeveloped. This lack of knowledge may prevent hydrological modelers from developing accurate reservoir release schemes for large-scale, distributed hydrology models that are increasingly used to assess the vulnerabilities of large regions to hydrological stress. We address this issue by estimating seasonally varying, regulated inflow forecast horizons used in the operations of more than 300 dams throughout the conterminous United States (CONUS). For each dam, we take actual forward observed inflows (perfect foresight) as a proxy for forecasted flows available to the operator and then identify for each week of the year the forward horizon that best explains the release decisions taken. Resulting “horizon curves” specify for each dam the inferred inflow forecast horizon as a function of the week of the water year. These curves are analyzed for strength of evidence for contribution of medium- to long-range forecasts in decision making. We use random forest classification to estimate that approximately 80 % of large dams and reservoirs in the US (1553±50 out of 1927 dams with at least 10 Mm3 storage capacity) adopt medium- to long-range inflow forecasts to inform release decisions during at least part of the water year. Long-range forecast horizons (more than 6 weeks ahead) are detected in the operations of reservoirs located in high-elevation regions of the western US, where snowpack information likely guides the release. A simulation exercise conducted on four key western US reservoirs indicates that forecast-informed models of reservoir operations may outperform models that neglect the horizon curve – including during flood and drought conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Augmenting Parametric Optimal Ascent Trajectory Modeling with Graph Theory

It has been well documented that decisions made in the early stages of Conceptual and Pre-Conceptual design commit up to 80% of total Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) while engineers know the least about the product they are designing [1]. Once within Preliminary and Detailed design however, making changes to the design becomes far more difficult to enact in both cost and schedule. Primarily this has been due to a lack of detailed data usually uncovered later during the Preliminary and Detailed design phases. In our current budget-constrained environment, making decisions within Conceptual and Pre-Conceptual design which minimize LCC while meeting requirements is paramount to a program's success. Within the arena of launch vehicle design, optimizing the ascent trajectory is critical for minimizing the costs present within such concerns as propellant, aerodynamic, aeroheating, and acceleration loads while meeting requirements such as payload delivered to a desired orbit. In order to optimize the vehicle design its constraints and requirements must be known, however as the design cycle proceeds it is all but inevitable that the conditions will change. Upon that change, the previously optimized trajectory may no longer be optimal, or meet design requirements. The current paradigm for adjusting to these updates is generating point solutions for every change in the design's requirements [2]. This can be a tedious, time-consuming task as changes in virtually any piece of a launch vehicle's design can have a disproportionately large effect on the ascent trajectory, as the solution space of the trajectory optimization problem is both non-linear and multimodal [3]. In addition, an industry standard tool, Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST), requires an expert analyst to produce simulated trajectories that are feasible and optimal [4]. In a previous publication the authors presented a method for combatting these challenges [5]. In order to bring more detailed information into Conceptual and Pre-Conceptual design, knowledge of the effects originating from changes to the vehicle must be calculated. In order to do this, a model capable of quantitatively describing any vehicle within the entire design space under consideration must be constructed. This model must be based upon analysis of acceptable fidelity, which in this work comes from POST. Design space interrogation can be achieved with surrogate modeling, a parametric, polynomial equation representing a tool. A surrogate model must be informed by data from the tool with enough points to represent the solution space for the chosen number of variables with an acceptable level of error. Therefore, Design Of Experiments (DOE) is used to select points within the design space to maximize information gained on the design space while minimizing number of data points required. To represent a design space with a non-trivial number of variable parameters the number of points required still represent an amount of work which would take an inordinate amount of time via the current paradigm of manual analysis, and so an automated method was developed. The best practices of expert trajectory analysts working within NASA Marshall's Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) were implemented within a tool called multiPOST. These practices include how to use the output data from a previous run of POST to inform the next, determining whether a trajectory solution is feasible from a real-world perspective, and how to handle program execution errors. The tool was then augmented with multiprocessing capability to enable analysis on multiple trajectories simultaneously, allowing throughput to scale with available computational resources. In this update to the previous work the authors discuss issues with the method and solutions.

Patrick D Dees↗

NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) and Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) Social Network and Community of Practice

The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) and Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) have been planned and funded by the NASA Earth Science Division. Both programs have a focus on engaging stakeholders and developing science useful for decision making. The resulting programs have funded significant scientific output and advancements in understanding how satellite remote sensing observations can be used to not just study how the Earth is changing, but also create data products that are of high utility to stakeholders and decisions makers. In this paper we focus on documenting thematic diversity of research themes and methods used, and how the CMS and ABoVE themes are related. We do this through developing a Correlated Topic Model on the 521 papers produced by the two programs and plotting the results in a network diagram. Through analysis of the themes in these papers, we document the relationships between researchers and institutions participating in CMS and ABoVE programs and the benefits from sustained engagement with stakeholders due to recurring funding. We note an absence of policy engagement in the papers and conclude that funded researchers need to be more ambitious and explicit in drawing the connection between their research and carbon policy implications in order to meet the stated goals of the CMS and ABoVE programs.

Molly E Brown↗

Radio astronomy Explorer-B in-flight mission control system development effort

A description is given of the development for the Mission Analysis Evaluation and Space Trajectory Operations (MAESTRO) program to be used for the in-flight decision making process during the translunar and lunar orbit adjustment phases of the flight of the Radio Astronomy Explorer-B. THe program serves two functions: performance and evaluation of preflight mission analysis, and in-flight support for the midcourse and lunar insertion command decisions that must be made by the flight director. The topics discussed include: analysis of program and midcourse guidance capabilities; methods for on-line control; printed displays of the MAESTRO program; and in-flight operational logistics and testing.

Lutsky, D. A.↗

Flight management - Pilot procedures and system interfaces for the 1980-1990's

In the air transportation system of the 1980-1990's, aircraft must perform with greater precision in time and position than is possible today. Rapid development in electronics technology makes renovation in airborne-system concepts feasible. The Ames Research Center is conducting research on pilot procedures and pilot-system interfaces for such systems. Research on various pilot-system interface devices and manned simulations was conducted to study rules of distributed decision making authority among pilots and controllers with various airborne display concepts, and a pilot-oriented command logic for the control of avionic systems was studied. Results are summarized, and ongoing work and future research plans described.

Wempe, T. E.↗

Risky Business

During my internship I worked on two major projects, recommending improvements for the Center's Risk Management Workshop and helping with the strategic planning efforts for Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA). The risk management improvements is the key project I worked on this semester through my internship, while the strategic planning is the secondary assignment. S&MA Business Office covers both aspects in its delegation, getting both spans some of the work done in the office. A risk is a future event with a negative consequence that has some probability of occurring. Safety and Mission Assurance identifies, analyzes, plans, and tracks risk. The directorate offers the Center a Risk Management Workshop, and part of the ongoing efforts of S&MA is to make continuous improvements to the RM Workshop. By using the Project Management Institute's (PMI) Standard for Risk Management, I performed a gap analysis to make improvements for our materials. I benchmarked the PMI's Risk Management Standard, compared our Risk Management Workshop materials to PMI's standard, and identified any gaps in our material. My major findings were presented to the Business Office of S&MA for a decision on whether or not to incorporate the improvements. These suggestions were made by attending JSC working group meetings, Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) panel reviews and various risk review meetings. The improvements provide better understanding of risk management processes and enhanced risk tracking knowledge and skills. Risk management is an integral part of any engineering discipline, getting exposed to this section of engineering will greatly help shape my career in the future. Johnson Space Center is a world leader in risk management processes; learning risk management here gives me a huge advantage over my peers, as well as understanding decision making in the context of risk management will help me to be a well-rounded engineer. Strategic planning is an area I had not previously studied. Helping with the strategic planning efforts in S&MA has taught me how organizations think and function as a whole. S&MA is adopting a balanced scorecard approach to strategic planning. As part of this planning method strategic themes, objectives, and initiatives are formed. I attended strategic theme team workshops that formed the strategy map for the directorate and gave shape to the plan. Also during these workshops the objectives were discussed and built. Learning the process for strategic planning has helped me better understand how organizations and businesses function, which also helps me to be a more effective employee. Other assignments I had during my internship included completing the Safety and Mission Assurance Technical Excellent Program (STEP) Level 1, as well as doing a two week rotation through the Space Exploration division in S&MA, specifically working with a thermal protection systems (TPS) engineer. While working there, I learned about the Orion capsule and the SpaceX Dragon cargo capsule. I attended meetings to prepare the engineers for the upcoming Critical Design Reviews for both capsules and reviewed test data. Learning risk management, strategic planning, and working in the Space Exploration division has taught me about many aspects of S&MA. My internship at NASA has given me new experiences and taught me numerous subjects that I would have otherwise not learned. This opportunity has expanded my educational horizons and is helping me to become a more useful engineer and employee.

Yarbrough, Katherine↗

Balancing Predictive and Reactive Science Planning for Mars 2020 Perseverance

The design of the science planning process for a space science mission needs to find a balance between operational and resource constraints and scientific decision-making. Science planning has previously been characterized as either predictive or reactive. Predictive science planning is needed when constraints drive science activities to be planned far in advance. For example, a combination of long one-way light time plus high-stakes science decisions drove the Cassini-Huygens mission to Saturn to have an extremely predictive planning process. On the other extreme, reactive science planning is needed when constraints drive science activities to be planned based on the results of the previous plan. For example, the Mars Exploration Rover mission interacted with the surface of Mars, and so the planning team needed to know the state of the rover at the end of each planning cycle before starting the next cycle. Operational and resource constraints that require management on intermediate timescales has led to the development of a science planning process between these two extremes. For example, the Mars Science Laboratory is a technically complex rover and has a parallel predictive process that allows the operations team to manage engineering constraints several days in advance while maintaining the reactive tactical planning process similar to that of MER. The Mars 2020 Perseverance rover is a technically complex rover in the MSL style, but has an added layer of science complexity: it is tasked with collecting a returnable cache of scientifically valuable samples of Mars within prime mission. Thus, the science planning process also needs to accommodate high-stakes longer-term science decisions in the style of Cassini. In order to balance the push-pull of these constraints, we have developed a science campaign-focused operational paradigm for Mars 2020 Perseverance that allows for both predictive planning to accommodate technological complexity and high-stakes science decisions as well as reactive planning to accommodate the realities of interacting with the martian surface. This paradigm influenced the design of operational processes and operational tools.

Spanovich, Nicole↗

Trades, Architecture, and Design of the Joint Augmented Reality Visual Informatics System (Joint AR) Product

Future expeditions will enable exploration and study of the planetary surfaces of the Moon and Mars by performing extravehicular activity (EVA) operations. Present-day International Space Station (ISS) EVA operations require an intricate choreography of crew, space suits, tools, systems, and flight teams to plan, train, and execute with limited advanced informatics. In this paper, the Joint Augmented Reality Visual Informatics System (Joint AR) project team at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) characterizes the design space for developing a modular augmented reality (AR) device for a spacesuit form factor that can support crew decision-making for EVA. The Joint AR product was defined via trade studies and market analysis of previous EVA display efforts, various AR components such as optics, commercial AR systems, light engines, data interfaces, and graphics engine software. This paper outlines the defining architectural design decisions, including safety criticality considerations, interfaces, and computer architectures. The outcomes of these studies result in a prototype design which is defined here as the Joint AR product. This work aims to enable a community-wide discussion toward realizing necessary suit-compatible AR features and capabilities for future missions.

Paromita Mitra↗

Trades, Architecture, and Design of the Joint Augmented Reality Visual Informatics System (Joint AR) Product

Future expeditions will enable exploration and study of the planetary surfaces of the Moon and Mars by performing extravehicular activity (EVA) operations. Present-day International Space Station (ISS) EVA operations require an intricate choreography of crew, space suits, tools, systems, and flight teams to plan, train, and execute with limited advanced informatics. In this paper, the Joint Augmented Reality Visual Informatics System (Joint AR) project team at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) characterizes the design space for developing a modular augmented reality (AR) device for a spacesuit form factor that can support crew decision-making for EVA. The Joint AR product was defined via trade studies and market analysis of previous EVA display efforts, various AR components such as optics, commercial AR systems, light engines, data interfaces, and graphics engine software. This paper outlines the defining architectural design decisions, including safety criticality considerations, interfaces, and computer architectures. The outcomes of these studies result in a prototype design which is defined here as the Joint AR product. This work aims to enable a community-wide discussion toward realizing necessary suit-compatible AR features and capabilities for future missions.

Paromita Mitra↗

X-33/RLV System Health Management/Vehicle Health Management

To reduce operations costs, Reusable Launch Vehicles (RLVS) must include highly reliable robust subsystems which are designed for simple repair access with a simplified servicing infrastructure, and which incorporate expedited decision-making about faults and anomalies. A key component for the Single Stage To Orbit (SSTO) RLV system used to meet these objectives is System Health Management (SHM). SHM incorporates Vehicle Health Management (VHM), ground processing associated with the vehicle fleet (GVHM), and Ground Infrastructure Health Management (GIHM). The primary objective of SHM is to provide an automated and paperless health decision, maintenance, and logistics system. Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company, is leading the design, development, and integration of the SHM system for RLV and for X-33 (a sub-scale, sub-orbit Advanced Technology Demonstrator). Many critical technologies are necessary to make SHM (and more specifically VHM) practical, reliable, and cost effective. This paper will present the X-33 SHM design which forms the baseline for the RLV SHM, and it will discuss applications of advanced technologies to future RLVs. In addition, this paper will describe a Virtual Design Environment (VDE) which is being developed for RLV. This VDE will allow for system design engineering, as well as program management teams, to accurately and efficiently evaluate system designs, analyze the behavior of current systems, and predict the feasibility of making smooth and cost-efficient transitions from older technologies to newer ones. The RLV SHM design methodology will reduce program costs, decrease total program life-cycle time, and ultimately increase mission success.

Mouyos, William↗