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DOE OSTI2024

Verifying Cyber Implementation Best Practices With Malcolm

Network traffic analysis can reveal a lot about what's right or wrong with a network's cybersecurity footing. Using Malcolm, a powerful open-source network traffic analysis tool suite for network security monitoring, cyber analysts and asset owners can validate cybersecurity best practices and uncover red flags in network configuration, including: proper network segmentation east-west (cross-segment) and north-south traffic unsecure or outdated network protocols authentication using clear text credentials rogue devices and services unexpected protocols (e.g., IPv6, DNS, DHCP, update checks, etc.) suspicious file transfers

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Files and scripts to support manuscript Needham et al. Canopy Gradients of Respiration

This dataset includes the parameter files, relevant output files, and scripts to perform analysis with Jupyter notebooks that support the manuscript Needham et al 2025 “Canopy Gradients of Respiration Drive Plant Carbon Budgets and Leaf Area Index.” We add functionality to the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) to allow flexible vertical gradients of leaf maintenance respiration (Rdark) and maximum carboxylation rate (Vcmax) through the canopy. We test the sensitivity of FATES to canopy gradients in Rdark, both in global simulations to assess broad scale impacts on leaf area index (LAI) and vegetation carbon, and in single site simulations where we assess impacts on plant functional type (PFT) competitive dynamics. Parameter files are netcdf files that can be converted to human readable .cdl files using NCO tools. Analysis scripts are Jupyter notebook files. These can be opened and run using the open source Jupyter notebook software. Model outputs are netcdf files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

SSAPy - Space Situational Awareness for Python

SSAPy is a fast and flexible orbit modeling and analysis tool for orbits spanning from low-Earth into the cislunar regime. Orbits can be flexibly specified from common input formats such as Keplerian elements or two-line element (TLE) data files. SSAPy allows users to model satellites and specify parameters such as satellite area, mass, and drag coefficients. SSAPy includes a customizable force-propagation with a range of Earth, Lunar, radiation, atmospheric, and maneuvering models. SSAPy makes use of various community integration methods and can calculate time-evolved orbital quantities, including satellite magnitudes and state vectors. Users can specify various space- and ground-based observation models with support for multiple coordinate and reference frames. SSAPy also supports orbit analysis and propagation methods such as multiple hypothesis tracking and has built-in uncertainty quantification. The majority of SSAPy’s methods are vectorized and parallelizable, allowing for effective use of high-performance computer (HPC) systems. Finally, SSAPy has plotting functionality, allowing users to visualize orbits and trajectories. Examples are shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2004

On Nonlinear Combustion Instability in Liquid Propellant Rocket Motors

All liquid propellant rocket instability calculations in current use have limited value in the predictive sense and serve mainly as a correlating framework for the available data sets. The well-known n-t model first introduced by Crocco and Cheng in 1956 is still used as the primary analytical tool of this type. A multitude of attempts to establish practical analytical methods have achieved only limited success. These methods usually produce only stability boundary maps that are of little use in making critical design decisions in new motor development programs. Recent progress in understanding the mechanisms of combustion instability in solid propellant rockets"' provides a firm foundation for a new approach to prediction, diagnosis, and correction of the closely related problems in liquid motor instability. For predictive tools to be useful in the motor design process, they must have the capability to accurately determine: 1) time evolution of the pressure oscillations and limit amplitude, 2) critical triggering pulse amplitude, and 3) unsteady heat transfer rates at injector surfaces and chamber walls. The method described in this paper relates these critical motor characteristics directly to system design parameters. Inclusion of mechanisms such as wave steepening, vorticity production and transport, and unsteady detonation wave phenomena greatly enhance the representation of key features of motor chamber oscillatory behavior. The basic theoretical model is described and preliminary computations are compared to experimental data. A plan to develop the new predictive method into a comprehensive analysis tool is also described.

Sims, J. D.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Online Analytics for Remedy Support at DOE Environmental Management Sites

Environmental data is important for managing environmental restoration/waste site remediation, planning of monitoring efforts, addressing climate resilience, and engaging with stakeholders and regulators. A major challenge is how to manage the many different types and the large volume of environmental data in a way that allows practitioners and site managers to understand data implications and support decisions. The Suite Of Comprehensive Rapid Analysis Tools for Environmental Sites (SOCRATES, https://www.pnnl.gov/projects/socrates) is a web application that provides data access, visualization, and rapid analytics to help make sense of environmental data, support remedy decisions, and communicate information. Development of SOCRATES has been funded through the DOE Richland Operations Office (RL) to support communication and decision making for the Hanford Site, thus is only tied into Hanford environmental data. However, the capabilities of SOCRATES are more broadly applicable to DOE-EM sites engaged in environmental remediation and management. This report describes the work to develop mechanisms for bringing non-Hanford data into SOCRATES so that other DOE-EM sites could make use of the visualization and analysis capabilities to support communication and decision making related to managing environmental restoration/waste site remediation, optimization/exit strategies for pump-and-treat systems, planning monitoring efforts, addressing climate resilience, and/or engaging with stakeholders and regulators. The background, approach, data transfer formats, examples, and next steps for this new SOCRATES-EM software are described in this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

New Representation of Bearings in LS-DYNA

Non-linear, dynamic, finite element analysis is used in various engineering disciplines to evaluate high-speed, dynamic impact and vibration events. Some of these applications require connecting rotating to stationary components. For example, bird impacts on rotating aircraft engine fan blades are a common analysis performed using this type of analysis tool. Traditionally, rotating machines utilize some type of bearing to allow rotation in one degree of freedom while offering constraints in the other degrees of freedom. Most times, bearings are modeled simply as linear springs with rotation. This is a simplification that is not necessarily accurate under the conditions of high-velocity, high-energy, dynamic events such as impact problems. For this reason, it is desirable to utilize a more realistic non-linear force-deflection characteristic of real bearings to model the interaction between rotating and non-rotating components during dynamic events. The present work describes a rolling element bearing model developed for use in non-linear, dynamic finite element analysis. This rolling element bearing model has been implemented in LS-DYNA as a new element, *ELEMENT_BEARING.

bearings↗

NASA NTRS2016

NASA's X-Plane Database and Parametric Cost Model v 2.0

The NASA Armstrong Cost Engineering Team with technical assistance from NASA HQ (SID)has gone through the full process in developing new CERs from Version #1 to Version #2 CERs. We took a step backward and reexamined all of the data collected, such as dependent and independent variables, cost, dry weight, length, wingspan, manned versus unmanned, altitude, Mach number, thrust, and skin. We used a well- known statistical analysis tool called CO$TAT instead of using "R" multiple linear or the "Regression" tool found in Microsoft Excel(TradeMark). We setup an "array of data" by adding 21" dummy variables;" we analyzed the standard error (SE) and then determined the "best fit." We have parametrically priced-out several future X-planes and compared our results to those of other resources. More work needs to be done in getting "accurate and traceable cost data" from historical X-plane records!

life cycle cost↗

DOE OSTI2025

Progress Towards NQA-1 for Cardinal in FY25

Cardinal is a wrapping of the GPU-oriented spectral element Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code NekRS and the Monte Carlo particle transport code OpenMC within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). Cardinal provides high-resolution thermal-hydraulics and/or radiation transport feedback to MOOSE multiphysics simulations. Multiphysics feedback is implemented in a geometry-agnostic manner which eliminates the need for rigid one-to-one mappings. A generic data transfer implementation also allows NekRS and OpenMC to couple to any MOOSE application, enabling a broad set of multiphysics capabilities. Cardinal simulations can also leverage combinations of MPI, OpenMP, and GPU resources. Cardinal continuous development and improvement efforts have led to the software being considered as a high-fidelity design and licensing tool for key areas of nuclear reactor relevant physics, including neutron transport, fluid flow, heat transfer, and mechanical processes. The fast development and expansion of the software from a pure R&D framework towards its application in the nuclear industry and regulation require a focus on developing, enhancing,and maintaining Cardinal’s software quality through strict adherence to a Software Quality Assurance (SQA) framework and SQA program. To facilitate compliance with SQA standards, the Cardinal SQA Program was initiated during Fiscal Year 2023 (FY23). During the development of the Cardinal SQA Program, multiple gaps have been identified. These gaps are primarily related to model verification and code pedigree as they relate to the use of Cardinal as an analysis tool. These gaps were captured in a report published in 2023. A second report highlighted the progress made during Fiscal Year 2024 (FY24) and described Argonne’s effort to document and integrate software verification within Cardinal’s software development process. This report documents the progress made towards NQA-1 for Cardinal in the Fiscal Year 2025 (FY25). All cases in the expanded Continuous Integration (CI) suite of NekRS are included in this report which test the solvers and modules available in NekRS exhaustively. The NekRS tests are integrated with the Cardinal CI suite and made available in publicly accessible Github documentation. Following the CI practice permits integrating of source code changes frequently and ensuring that the integrated codebase clears the verification testing for the software. Also in this report is a brief overview of the development of the Cardinal Software Quality Assurance Plan (SQAP) that was done in FY25, though it should be noted that the rest of the documentation for the SQA program needs to be developed in a future step of this task.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

FNCL Enhancements Implementation (FY25 Annual Report)

The FNCL investigations team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has completed research and development of hardware, signal processing, and analysis tools to enhance the measurement capabilities of both the current CAEN SyS VeryFuel Fast Neutron Collar (FNCL) instrument and a next-generation FNCL prototype. The team successfully built and commissioned the LLNL Demonstrator System: a fully integrated, three-panel detector system featuring higher segmentation, plastic scintillators (EJ-276D), Silicon Photomultipliers (SiPMs), no high-voltage requirement, a reduced electronic footprint, and the LLNL-developed Gaussian Mixture Model Pulse Shape Discrimination (GMM-PSD) signal processing. An extensive experimental campaign was conducted at LLNL’s Inherently Safe Subcritical Assembly (ISSA) facility using both the baseline FNCL and the LLNL Demonstrator. The campaign results validated system performance, calibration stability, and the effectiveness of advanced signal processing and analysis algorithms in a relevant environment.

and physical protection↗

DOE OSTI2024

Global Geo-processed Data of Aquifer Properties by 0.5° Grid, Country and Water Basins

This repository of global hydrogeologic datasets contains aquifer properties on 0.5° scale, including depth to groundwater (Fan et al., 2013), aquifer thickness (de Graaf et al., 2015), WHYMap aquifer classes (Richts et al., 2011), recharge (Döll and Fiedler, 2008; Gleeson et al., 2016), lakes (Messager et al., 2016), porosity and permeability (Gleeson et al., 2014), digitized and geo-processed from their respective sources. Globally gridded aquifer properties could be used independently to estimate global groundwater availability or used as critical inputs to the superwell model to simulate groundwater extraction and provide estimates of pumped volumes and unit costs under user-specific scenarios. Key resources related to this data are: Niazi, H., Ferencz, S. B., Graham, N. T., Yoon, J., Wild, T. B., Hejazi, M., Watson, D. J., & Vernon, C. R. (2025). Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1. Geoscientific Model Development, 18(5), 1737-1767. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1737-2025 superwell model repository which uses this data to simulate groundwater extraction and provides estimates of the global extractable volumes and unit-costs ($/km3) of accessible groundwater production under user-specified extraction scenarios. Repository Overview Main output: aquifer_properties_rec.csv contains all processed outputs, including aquifer properties like porosity, permeability, recharge, lake areas, aquifer thickness, and depth to groundwater. shapefiles.zip: contains all digitized GIS databases and shapefile for all aquifer properties prep_inputs.R and prep_inputs_recharge_lakes.R: R scripts that process the shapefiles to produce the aquifer_properties_rec.csv file plot_inputs.R: R script for plotting the maps and conducting preliminary analysis on the available groundwater volume basin_to_country_mapping.csv, basin_country_region_mapping.csv and continent_county_mapping.csv provide the mapping between continents, 32 energy-economic macro regions, countries, and water basins for post-processing aquifer_properties_rec.csv Maps: Each map visualizes the spatial distribution of one of the aquifer properties across the globe map_in_Porosity.png map_in_Permeability.png map_in_Aquifer_thickness.png map_in_Depth_to_water.png map_in_Recharge.png map_in_Grid_area_km.png map_in_Lake_area_km.png map_in_WHYClass.png Sample inputs sample_inputs.py: this script samples inputs from the aquifer_properties_rec dataset, ensuring the sampled and original inputs maintain the same distributions sampled_data_100.csv contains 100 sampled data points and sampled_data_100.png compares their distributions Dataset Overview The main outputs are consolidated in a comprehensive aquifer_properties_rec.csv file and include the following fields: GridCellID: Unique identifier for each (roughly 0.5°) grid cell Continent: Continent name Country: Country name GCAM_basin_ID: Identifier for GCAM hydrologic basin Basin_long_name: Full name of the basin WHYClass: Hydrogeologic classification based on WHYMap aquifer classes (Richts et al., 2011) Porosity: Soil porosity (%) (Gleeson et al., 2014) Permeability: Soil permeability (in square meters; Gleeson et al., 2014) Aquifer_thickness: Thickness of the aquifer (in meters; de Graaf et al., 2015) Depth_to_water: Depth to groundwater (in meters; Fan et al., 2013) Recharge: long-term annual averaged recharge rates (in m/yr; Döll and Fiedler, 2008; Gleeson et al., 2016) Grid_area: Area of the grid cell (in square meters) Lakes_area: Area of inland lakes (in square meters; Messager et al., 2016) Key References The datasets are digitized versions of global hydrogeologic properties from the following key literature sources: Depth to Groundwater: Fan, Y., Li, H., & Miguez-Macho, G. (2013). Global Patterns of Groundwater Table Depth. Science, 339(6122), 940-943. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1229881 Aquifer Thickness: de Graaf, I. E. M., Sutanudjaja, E. H., van Beek, L. P. H., & Bierkens, M. F. P. (2015). A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19(2), 823-837. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-823-2015 Porosity and Permeability: Gleeson, T., Moosdorf, N., Hartmann, J., & van Beek, L. P. H. (2014). A glimpse beneath earth's surface: GLobal HYdrogeology MaPS (GLHYMPS) of permeability and porosity. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(11), 3891-3898. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059856 Aquifer classes: Richts, A., Struckmeier, W. F., & Zaepke, M. (2011). WHYMAP and the Groundwater Resources Map of the World 1:25,000,000. In J. A. A. Jones (Ed.), Sustaining Groundwater Resources: A Critical Element in the Global Water Crisis (pp. 159-173). Springer Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3426-7_10 Recharge: Döll, P., & Fiedler, K. (2008). Global-scale modeling of groundwater recharge. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12(3), 863-885. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-12-863-2008; Gleeson, T., Befus, K. M., Jasechko, S., Luijendijk, E., & Cardenas, M. B. (2016). The global volume and distribution of modern groundwater. Nature Geoscience, 9(2), 161-167. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2590 Inland Lakes: Messager, M. L., Lehner, B., Grill, G., Nedeva, I., & Schmitt, O. (2016). Estimating the volume and age of water stored in global lakes using a geo-statistical approach. Nature Communications, 7(1), 13603. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13603 Cite as Niazi, H., Watson, D., Hejazi, M., Yonkofski, C., Ferencz, S., Vernon, C., Graham, N., Wild, T., & Yoon, J. (2024). Global Geo-processed Data of Aquifer Properties by 0.5° Grid, Country and Water Basins. MultiSector Dynamics-Living, Intuitive, Value-adding, Environment. https://doi.org/10.57931/2484226 Contact Reach out to Hassan Niazi or open an issue in the superwell repository for questions or suggestions.

aquifer thickness↗

NASA NTRS2014

Pre-Test CFD for the Design and Execution of the Enhanced Injection and Mixing Project at NASA Langley Research Center

With the increasing costs of physics experiments and simultaneous increase in availability and maturity of computational tools it is not surprising that computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is playing an increasingly important role, not only in post-test investigations, but also in the early stages of experimental planning. This paper describes a CFD-based effort executed in close collaboration between computational fluid dynamicists and experimentalists to develop a virtual experiment during the early planning stages of the Enhanced Injection and Mixing project at NASA Langley Research Center. This projects aims to investigate supersonic combustion ramjet (scramjet) fuel injection and mixing physics, improve the understanding of underlying physical processes, and develop enhancement strategies and functional relationships relevant to flight Mach numbers greater than 8. The purpose of the virtual experiment was to provide flow field data to aid in the design of the experimental apparatus and the in-stream rake probes, to verify the nonintrusive measurements based on NO-PLIF, and to perform pre-test analysis of quantities obtainable from the experiment and CFD. The approach also allowed for the joint team to develop common data processing and analysis tools, and to test research ideas. The virtual experiment consisted of a series of Reynolds-averaged simulations (RAS). These simulations included the facility nozzle, the experimental apparatus with a baseline strut injector, and the test cabin. Pure helium and helium-air mixtures were used to determine the efficacy of different inert gases to model hydrogen injection. The results of the simulations were analyzed by computing mixing efficiency, total pressure recovery, and stream thrust potential. As the experimental effort progresses, the simulation results will be compared with the experimental data to calibrate the modeling constants present in the CFD and validate simulation fidelity. CFD will also be used to investigate different injector concepts, improve understanding of the flow structure and flow physics, and develop functional relationships. Both RAS and large eddy simulations (LES) are planned for post-test analysis of the experimental data.

Drozda, Tomasz G.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Software Quality Assurance for the MOOSE-Based Open-Source Multiphysics Code Cardinal - An Expanded CI Testing Suite

Cardinal is a wrapping of the GPU-oriented spectral element Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code NekRS and the Monte Carlo particle transport code OpenMC within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). Cardinal provides high-resolution thermal-hydraulics and/or radiation transport feedback to MOOSE multiphysics simulations. Multiphysics feedback is implemented in a geometry-agnostic manner which eliminates the need for rigid one-to-one mappings. A generic data transfer implementation also allows NekRS and OpenMC to couple to any MOOSE application, enabling a broad set of multiphysics capabilities. Cardinal simulations can also leverage combinations of MPI, OpenMP, and GPU resources. Cardinal continuous development and improvement efforts have led to the software being considered as a high-fidelity design and licensing tool for key areas of nuclear reactor relevant physics, including neutron transport, fluid flow, heat transfer, and mechanical processes. The fast development and expansion of the software from a pure R&D framework towards its application in the nuclear industry and regulation require a focus on developing, enhancing and, maintaining Cardinal’s software quality through strict adherence to a Software Quality Assurance (SQA) framework and SQA program. To facilitate compliance with SQA standards, the Cardinal SQA Program has been initiated during Fiscal Year 2023 (FY23). During the development of the Cardinal SQA Program, multiple gaps have been identified. These gaps are primarily related to model verification and code pedigree as they relate to the use of Cardinal as a safety analysis tool. These gaps have been captured in a report published in 2023. A second report highlighted the progress made during Fiscal Year 2024 (FY24) and described Argonne’s effort to document and integrate software verification within Cardinal’s software development process. This report documents a snapshot of the verification test cases currently available for Cardinal and NekRS in their assimilation into a Continuous Integration (CI) platform. Following the CI practice permits the integrating of source code changes frequently and ensuring that the integrated codebase clears the verification testing for the software. It should be noted that the SQA program itself, including the program plans, procedures, configuration management, and testing strategies, need to be developed in a future step of this task.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2003

Increasing the Operational Value of Event Messages

Assessing the health of a space mission has traditionally been performed using telemetry analysis tools. Parameter values are compared to known operational limits and are plotted over various time periods. This presentation begins with the notion that there is an incredible amount of untapped information contained within the mission s event message logs. Through creative advancements in message handling tools, the event message logs can be used to better assess spacecraft and ground system status and to highlight and report on conditions not readily apparent when messages are evaluated one-at-a-time during a real-time pass. Work in this area is being funded as part of a larger NASA effort at the Goddard Space Flight Center to create component-based, middleware-based, standards-based general purpose ground system architecture referred to as GMSEC - the GSFC Mission Services Evolution Center. The new capabilities and operational concepts for event display, event data analyses and data mining are being developed by Lockheed Martin and the new subsystem has been named GREAT - the GMSEC Reusable Event Analysis Toolkit. Planned for use on existing and future missions, GREAT has the potential to increase operational efficiency in areas of problem detection and analysis, general status reporting, and real-time situational awareness.

Li, Zhenping↗

NASA NTRS2006

A-Train Data Depot: Integrating, Visualizing, and Extracting Cloudsat, CALIPSO, MODIS, and AIRS Atmospheric Measurements Along the A-Train Tracks

The succession of US and international Earth observing satellites that follow each other, seconds to minutes apart, across the local afternoon equator crossing is called the ATrain. The A-Train consists of the following satellites, in order of equator crossing: OCO, EOS Aqua, CloudSat, CALIPSO, PARASOL, and EOS Aura. Flying in such formation increases the number of observations, validates observations, and enables coordination between science observations, resulting in a more complete virtual science platform (Kelly, 2000). The goal of this project is to create the first ever A-Train virtual data portal/center, the A-Train Data Depot (ATDD), to process, archive, access, visualize, analyze and correlate distributed atmosphere measurements from various A-Train instruments along A-Train tracks. The ATDD will enable the free movement of remotely located A-Train data so that they are combined to create a consolidated vertical view of the Earth's Atmosphere along the A-Train tracks. Once the infrastructure of the ATDD is in place, it will be easily evolved to serve data from all A-Train data measurements: one stop shopping. The innovative approach of analyzing and visualizing atmospheric profiles along the platforms track (i.e., time) will be accommodated by reusing the GSFC Atmospheric Composition Data and Information Services Center (ACDISC) visualization and analysis tool, GIOVANNI, existing data reduction tools, on-line archiving for fast data access, access to remote data without unnecessary data transfers, and data retrieval by users finding data desirable for further study. Initial measurements utilized include CALIPSO lidar backscatter, CloudSat radar reflectivity, clear air relative humidity, water vapor and temperature from AIRS, and cloud properties and aerosols from both MODIS. This will be foilowed by associated measurements from TVILS, =MI, HIRDLS, sad TES. Given the independent nature of instrumentlplatform development, the ATDD project has been met with many interesting challenges that, once resolved, will provide a much greater understanding of the relative flight dynamics and data co-registration of the suite of A-Train instruments, thus greatly increasing the accuracy of A-Train data analysis. Some of these challenges will be illustrated and discussed. The project's early visualizations and analysis efforts illustrate the importance of managing data so that measurements from various missions can be combined to enhance the understanding of the atmosphere. A-Train data management coordination, as performed here, is extremely significant in facilitating the A-Train science of clouds, precipitation, aerosol and chemistry.

Kempler, Steven↗

DOE OSTI2024

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

decision support↗

DOE OSTI2021

A hierarchical evaluation framework for assessing climate simulations relevant to the energy-water-land nexus (Final Report)

The overarching goal was to construct a hierarchy of new and well-tested metrics and analysis tools that support both fundamental and use-inspired research. Motivating this goal was a convergence of needs from climate scientists and stakeholders alike for a systematic, robust framework of model evaluation and diagnosis to provide scientific insights, inform model development, support best practices for the use of climate model outputs, and facilitate communication of climate information in the evolving landscapes of multi-model, multi-resolution, and large ensemble simulations that generate terabytes of data for any single climate run. Steps toward attaining these goals benefited from expertise and established capability of the project team, which included leadership of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), development of hierarchical model evaluation approaches, and successful research in the analysis and diagnosis of climate model skill, as well as the understanding and modeling of regional climate processes in North America. As part of the overarching goal, the project worked to disseminate a suite of methodologies, algorithms, and software components that the wider community can employ to advance climate science and applications. With rigorous demonstration, the evaluation framework and the mix of standard and high risk / high reward approaches helped form the basis for future development of a computationally enabled user-friendly system for community use.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A framework for quantitative analysis of spectral data in two channels

Simultaneous acquisition of emission intensity from two channels in dual-color fluorescence measurements can be used to determine the spectral properties of an emitter. We detail a method to extract quantitative information from dual-color measurements by considering two models: a single spectral component model for peak wavelength determination and a dual spectral component model for relative strength determination. The former model is useful for spectral characterization and establishing heterogeneity within an emitter species, while the latter model is useful for analyzing energy transfer efficiency. Both models are formalized to yield probability distributions that reflect uncertainties due to shot noise. We applied these analysis tools to single-particle measurements of CdSe/CdS quantum dots. Isolated emitters had narrow spectral-intensity distributions that reflected their static emission profiles and fluorescence stability. Small assemblies of mixed donor/acceptor particles exhibited dynamic behavior where emission configuration changes reveal different spectral characteristics due to energy transfer.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

EverGREEN 2045: An Energy Mix to Decarbonize Washington State

Washington State’s future resource mix is likely to be comprised of intermittent renewables and carbon-free generation including hydropower by 2045. Generation will likely be comprised of wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), batteries, pumped storage hydropower (PSH), existing nuclear power plants, and potentially enhanced geothermal systems and advanced nuclear reactor technologies. To assess the cost and stability of the future resource mix, we partner with X-energy (advanced reactor design) and AltaRock Energy (enhanced geothermal system) for proprietary cost data. After estimating the costs of these two new technologies, we design plausible future resource mix scenarios to meet Washington State’s Clean Energy Transformation Act which transitions the state to carbon-free generation by 2045. We assess the cost and stability of the future resource mix with power system analysis tools, finding revenues are sufficient to cover variable operating and maintenance costs for most technologies providing power in 2030 and 2045, but capacity payments or power purchase agreements will likely be necessary for flexible resources, including enhanced geothermal systems and advanced nuclear reactors, to participate in the future resource mix.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗