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At least 1,189 records · Page 66

Predicting the Extreme Ultraviolet Radiation Environment of Exoplanets around Low-mass Stars: The TRAPPIST-1 System

The high energy radiation environment around M dwarf stars strongly affects the characteristics of close-in exoplanet atmospheres, but these wavelengths are difficult to observe because of geocoronal and interstellar contamination. Due to these observational restrictions, a stellar atmosphere model may be used to compute the stellar extreme ultraviolet (EUV; 100–912 Å) spectrum. We construct semiempirical nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium model spectra of the ultracool M8 star TRAPPIST-1 that span EUV to infrared wavelengths (100 Å-2.5 μm) using the atmosphere code PHOENIX. These upper atmosphere models contain prescriptions for the chromosphere and transition region and include newly added partial frequency redistribution capabilities. In the absence of broadband UV spectral observations, we constrain our models using Hubble Space Telescope Lyman α observations from TRAPPIST-1 and Galaxy Evolution Explorer UV photometric detections from a set of old M8 stars (>1 Gyr). We find that calibrating the models using both data sets separately yield similar far-ultraviolet and NUV fluxes, and EUV fluxes that range from (1.32–17.4) × 10 -14 ergs s -1 cm -2 . The findings from these models demonstrate that the EUV emission is very sensitive to the temperature structure in the transition region. Our lower activity models predict EUV fluxes similar to previously published estimates derived from semiempirical scaling relationships, while the highest activity model predicts EUV fluxes a factor of 10 higher. Results from this study support the idea that the TRAPPIST-1 habitable zone planets likely do not have much liquid water on their surfaces due to the elevated levels of high energy radiation emitted by the host star.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A study of the dynamics of droughts in Northern Brazil: Observations, theory, and numerical experiments with a global atmospheric circulation model

The monthly mean sea surface temperature anomalies over tropical Altantic and rainfall anomalies over two selected stations for 25 years (1948-1972) were examined. It is found that the most severe drought events are associated with the simultaneous occurrence of warm sea surface temperature anomalies over north and cold sea surface temperature anomalies over south tropical Atlantic. Simultaneous occurrences of warm sea surface temperature anomaly at 15 deg N, 45 deg W and cold sea surface temperature anomaly at 15 deg S, 5 deg W were always associated with negative anomalies of rainfall, and vice versa. A simple primitive equation model is used to calculate the frictionally controlled and thermally driven circulation due to a prescribed heating function in a resting atmosphere.

Moura, A. D.↗

Self-Supervised Cloud Classification

Abstract Low-level marine clouds play a pivotal role in Earth’s weather and climate through their interactions with radiation, heat and moisture transport, and the hydrological cycle. These interactions depend on a range of dynamical and microphysical processes that result in a broad diversity of cloud types and spatial structures, and a comprehensive understanding of cloud morphology is critical for continued improvement of our atmospheric modeling and prediction capabilities moving forward. Deep learning has recently accelerated our ability to study clouds using satellite remote sensing, and machine learning classifiers have enabled detailed studies of cloud morphology. A major limitation of deep learning approaches to this problem, however, is the large number of hand-labeled samples that are required for training. This work applies a recently developed self-supervised learning scheme to train a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to map marine cloud imagery to vector embeddings that capture information about mesoscale cloud morphology and can be used for satellite image classification. The model is evaluated against existing cloud classification datasets and several use cases are demonstrated, including training cloud classifiers with very few labeled samples, interrogation of the CNN’s learned internal feature representations, cross-instrument application, and resilience against sensor calibration drift and changing scene brightness. The self-supervised approach learns meaningful internal representations of cloud structures and achieves comparable classification accuracy to supervised deep learning methods without the expense of creating large hand-annotated training datasets. Significance Statement Marine clouds heavily influence Earth’s weather and climate, and improved understanding of marine clouds is required to improve our atmospheric modeling capabilities and physical understanding of the atmosphere. Recently, deep learning has emerged as a powerful research tool that can be used to identify and study specific marine cloud types in the vast number of images collected by Earth-observing satellites. While powerful, these approaches require hand-labeling of training data, which is prohibitively time intensive. This study evaluates a recently developed self-supervised deep learning method that does not require human-labeled training data for processing images of clouds. We show that the trained algorithm performs competitively with algorithms trained on hand-labeled data for image classification tasks. We also discuss potential downstream uses and demonstrate some exciting features of the approach including application to multiple satellite instruments, resilience against changing image brightness, and its learned internal representations of cloud types. The self-supervised technique removes one of the major hurdles for applying deep learning to very large atmospheric datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NON-LTE INVERSIONS OF THE Mg ii h and k AND UV TRIPLET LINES

The Mg ii h and k lines are powerful diagnostics for studying the solar chromosphere. They have become particularly popular with the launch of the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph ( IRIS ) satellite, and a number of studies that include these lines have lead to great progress in understanding chromospheric heating, in many cases thanks to the support from 3D MHD simulations. In this study, we utilize another approach to analyze observations: non-LTE inversions of the Mg ii h and k and UV triplet lines including the effects of partial redistribution. Our inversion code attempts to construct a model atmosphere that is compatible with the observed spectra. We have assessed the capabilities and limitations of the inversions using the FALC atmosphere and a snapshot from a 3D radiation-MHD simulation. We find that Mg ii h and k allow reconstructing a model atmosphere from the middle photosphere to the transition region. We have also explored the capabilities of a multi-line/multi-atom setup, including the Mg ii h and k, the Ca ii 854.2 nm, and the Fe i 630.25 lines to recover the full stratification of physical parameters, including the magnetic field vector, from the photosphere to the chromosphere. Finally, we present the first inversions of observed IRIS spectra from quiet-Sun, plage, and sunspot, with very promising results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Impact of buildings on surface solar radiation over urban Beijing

The rugged surface of an urban area due to varying buildings can interact with solar beams and affect both the magnitude and spatiotemporal distribution of surface solar fluxes. Here we systematically examine the impact of buildings on downward surface solar fluxes over urban Beijing by using a 3-D radiation parameterization that accounts for 3-D building structures vs. the conventional plane-parallel scheme. We find that the resulting downward surface solar flux deviations between the 3-D and the plane-parallel schemes are generally ±1–10 W m -2 at 800 m grid resolution and within ±1 W m -2 at 4 km resolution. Pairs of positive–negative flux deviations on different sides of buildings are resolved at 800 m resolution, while they offset each other at 4 km resolution. Flux deviations from the unobstructed horizontal surface at 4 km resolution are positive around noon but negative in the early morning and late afternoon. The corresponding deviations at 800 m resolution, in contrast, show diurnal variations that are strongly dependent on the location of the grids relative to the buildings. Both the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of flux deviations are largely dominated by the direct flux. Furthermore, we find that flux deviations can potentially be an order of magnitude larger by using a finer grid resolution. Atmospheric aerosols can reduce the magnitude of downward surface solar flux deviations by 10–65 %, while the surface albedo generally has a rather moderate impact on flux deviations. The results imply that the effect of buildings on downward surface solar fluxes may not be critically significant in mesoscale atmospheric models with a grid resolution of 4 km or coarser. However, the effect can play a crucial role in meso-urban atmospheric models as well as microscale urban dispersion models with resolutions of 1 m to 1 km.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Land Surface Process and Air Quality Research and Applications at MSFC

This viewgraph presentation provides an overview of land surface process and air quality research at MSFC including atmospheric modeling and ongoing research whose objective is to undertake a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of the effects of accurate land surface characterization on atmospheric modeling results, and public health applications. Land use maps as well as 10 meter air temperature, surface wind, PBL mean difference heights, NOx, ozone, and O3+NO2 plots as well as spatial growth model outputs are included. Emissions and general air quality modeling are also discussed.

Quattrochi, Dale↗

Jacchia-Lineberry upper atmosphere density model

A series of increasingly accurate models which are a careful blend of empirical and theoretical formulae were developed. The exospheric temperature is assumed to be a function of: (1) the average and daily variations in the solar flux, (2) the average and three hourly variations in the geomagnetic index, (3) the angle between the position vector and the axis of the unsymmetric atmospheric bulge, and (4) the angle between the position vector and the geomagnetic pole. The exospheric temperature is related to the density by the solution of the diffusion equilibrium equations for the different constituents of the atmosphere as a function of altitude. Other variations are modeled directly as changes in the density. They are: (1) changes due to the semiannual effect, and (2) changes due to the seasonal latitudinal effect. The causes for these variations are not exactly known but may be modeled sufficiently by empirical formulae. The Jacchia model is assumed to be valid over the altitude range of 90 to 2500 km. The residuals between the observed density from satellite drag observations and the computed densities show the mean relative error to be generally less than 10 percent with occasional peak errors near 50 percent.

Mueller, A. C.↗

Greenhouse Gas Source Attribution: Measurements Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification

In this project we have developed atmospheric measurement capabilities and a suite of atmospheric modeling and analysis tools that are well suited for verifying emissions of green- house gases (GHGs) on an urban-through-regional scale. We have for the first time applied the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate atmospheric CO 2 . This will allow for the examination of regional-scale transport and distribution of CO 2 along with air pollutants traditionally studied using CMAQ at relatively high spatial and temporal resolution with the goal of leveraging emissions verification efforts for both air quality and climate. We have developed a bias-enhanced Bayesian inference approach that can remedy the well-known problem of transport model errors in atmospheric CO 2 inversions. We have tested the approach using data and model outputs from the TransCom3 global CO 2 inversion comparison project. We have also performed two prototyping studies on inversion approaches in the generalized convection-diffusion context. One of these studies employed Polynomial Chaos Expansion to accelerate the evaluation of a regional transport model and enable efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior for Bayesian inference. The other approach uses de- terministic inversion of a convection-diffusion-reaction system in the presence of uncertainty. These approaches should, in principle, be applicable to realistic atmospheric problems with moderate adaptation. We outline a regional greenhouse gas source inference system that integrates (1) two ap- proaches of atmospheric dispersion simulation and (2) a class of Bayesian inference and un- certainty quantification algorithms. We use two different and complementary approaches to simulate atmospheric dispersion. Specifically, we use a Eulerian chemical transport model CMAQ and a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model - FLEXPART-WRF. These two models share the same WRF assimilated meteorology fields, making it possible to perform a hybrid simulation, in which the Eulerian model (CMAQ) can be used to compute the initial condi- tion needed by the Lagrangian model, while the source-receptor relationships for a large state vector can be efficiently computed using the Lagrangian model in its backward mode. In ad- dition, CMAQ has a complete treatment of atmospheric chemistry of a suite of traditional air pollutants, many of which could help attribute GHGs from different sources. The inference of emissions sources using atmospheric observations is cast as a Bayesian model calibration problem, which is solved using a variety of Bayesian techniques, such as the bias-enhanced Bayesian inference algorithm, which accounts for the intrinsic model deficiency, Polynomial Chaos Expansion to accelerate model evaluation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, and Karhunen-Lo %60 eve (KL) Expansion to reduce the dimensionality of the state space. We have established an atmospheric measurement site in Livermore, CA and are collect- ing continuous measurements of CO 2 , CH 4 and other species that are typically co-emitted with these GHGs. Measurements of co-emitted species can assist in attributing the GHGs to different emissions sectors. Automatic calibrations using traceable standards are performed routinely for the gas-phase measurements. We are also collecting standard meteorological data at the Livermore site as well as planetary boundary height measurements using a ceilometer. The location of the measurement site is well suited to sample air transported between the San Francisco Bay area and the California Central Valley.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MODELING THE QUANTUM INTERFERENCE SIGNATURES OF THE Ba II D{sub 2} 4554 A LINE IN THE SECOND SOLAR SPECTRUM

Quantum interference effects play a vital role in shaping the linear polarization profiles of solar spectral lines. The Ba II D{sub 2} line at 4554 A is a prominent example, where the F-state interference effects due to the odd isotopes produce polarization profiles, which are very different from those of the even isotopes that have no F-state interference. It is therefore necessary to account for the contributions from the different isotopes to understand the observed linear polarization profiles of this line. Here we do radiative transfer modeling with partial frequency redistribution (PRD) of such observations while accounting for the interference effects and isotope composition. The Ba II D{sub 2} polarization profile is found to be strongly governed by the PRD mechanism. We show how a full PRD treatment succeeds in reproducing the observations, while complete frequency redistribution alone fails to produce polarization profiles that have any resemblance to the observed ones. However, we also find that the line center polarization is sensitive to the temperature structure of the model atmosphere. To obtain a good fit to the line center peak of the observed Stokes Q/I profile, a small modification of the FALX model atmosphere is needed, by lowering the temperature in the line-forming layers. Because of the pronounced temperature sensitivity of the Ba II D{sub 2} line it may not be a suitable tool for Hanle magnetic-field diagnostics of the solar chromosphere, because there is currently no straightforward way to separate the temperature and magnetic-field effects from each other.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Strategies to Improve the Accuracy of Mars-GRAM Sensitivity Studies at Large Optical Depths

The poster provides an overview of techniques to improve the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) sensitivity. It has been discovered during the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) site selection process that the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) when used for sensitivity studies for TES MapYear = 0 and large optical depth values such as tau = 3 is less than realistic. A preliminary fix has been made to Mars-GRAM by adding a density factor value that was determined for tau = 0.3, 1 and 3.

Justh, Hilary L.↗

Subseasonal Earth System Prediction with CESM2

Abstract Prediction systems to enable Earth system predictability research on the subseasonal time scale have been developed with the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2) using two configurations that differ in their atmospheric components. One system uses the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6) with its top near 40 km, referred to as CESM2(CAM6). The other employs the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 6 (WACCM6) whose top extends to ∼140 km, and it includes fully interactive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry [CESM2(WACCM6)]. Both systems are utilized to carry out subseasonal reforecasts for the 1999–2020 period following the Subseasonal Experiment’s (SubX) protocol. Subseasonal prediction skill from both systems is compared to those of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration CFSv2 and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational models. CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) show very similar subseasonal prediction skill of 2-m temperature, precipitation, the Madden–Julian oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation to its previous version and to the NOAA CFSv2 model. Overall, skill of CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) is a little lower than that of the ECMWF system. In addition to typical output provided by subseasonal prediction systems, CESM2 reforecasts provide comprehensive datasets for predictability research of multiple Earth system components, including three-dimensional output for many variables, and output specific to the mesosphere and lower-thermosphere (MLT) region from CESM2(WACCM6). It is shown that sudden stratosphere warming events, and the associated variability in the MLT, can be predicted ∼10 days in advance. Weekly real-time forecasts and reforecasts with CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) are freely available. Significance Statement We describe here the design and prediction skill of two subseasonal prediction systems based on two configurations of the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2): CESM2 with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 [CESM2(CAM6)] and CESM 2 with Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 6 [CESM2(WACCM6)] as its atmospheric component. These two systems provide a foundation for community-model based subseasonal prediction research. The CESM2(WACCM6) system provides a novel capability to explore the predictability of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere. Both CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) demonstrate subseasonal surface prediction skill comparable to that of the NOAA CFSv2 model, and a little lower than that of the ECMWF forecasting system. CESM2 reforecasts provide a comprehensive dataset for predictability research of multiple aspects of the Earth system, including the whole atmosphere up to 140 km, land, and sea ice. Weekly real-time forecasts, reforecasts, and models are publicly available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CAUSES: Diagnosis of the Summertime Warm Bias in CMIP5 Climate Models at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site

Abstract All the weather and climate models participating in the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface project show a summertime surface air temperature (T2 m) warm bias in the region of the central United States. To understand the warm bias in long‐term climate simulations, we assess the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, with long‐term observations mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program Southern Great Plains site. Quantities related to the surface energy and water budget, and large‐scale circulation are analyzed to identify possible factors and plausible links involved in the warm bias. The systematic warm season bias is characterized by an overestimation of T2 m and underestimation of surface humidity, precipitation, and precipitable water. Accompanying the warm bias is an overestimation of absorbed solar radiation at the surface, which is due to a combination of insufficient cloud reflection and clear‐sky shortwave absorption by water vapor and an underestimation in surface albedo. The bias in cloud is shown to contribute most to the radiation bias. The surface layer soil moisture impacts T2 m through its control on evaporative fraction. The error in evaporative fraction is another important contributor to T2 m. Similar sources of error are found in hindcast from other Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface studies. In Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations, biases in meridional wind velocity associated with the low‐level jet and the 500 hPa vertical velocity may also relate to T2 m bias through their control on the surface energy and water budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

IONIZATION IN ATMOSPHERES OF BROWN DWARFS AND EXTRASOLAR PLANETS. V. ALFVÉN IONIZATION

Observations of continuous radio and sporadic X-ray emission from low-mass objects suggest they harbor localized plasmas in their atmospheric environments. For low-mass objects, the degree of thermal ionization is insufficient to qualify the ionized component as a plasma, posing the question: what ionization processes can efficiently produce the required plasma that is the source of the radiation? We propose Alfvén ionization as a mechanism for producing localized pockets of ionized gas in the atmosphere, having sufficient degrees of ionization (≥10{sup –7}) that they constitute plasmas. We outline the criteria required for Alfvén ionization and demonstrate its applicability in the atmospheres of low-mass objects such as giant gas planets, brown dwarfs, and M dwarfs with both solar and sub-solar metallicities. We find that Alfvén ionization is most efficient at mid to low atmospheric pressures where a seed plasma is easier to magnetize and the pressure gradients needed to drive the required neutral flows are the smallest. For the model atmospheres considered, our results show that degrees of ionization of 10{sup –6}-1 can be obtained as a result of Alfvén ionization. Observable consequences include continuum bremsstrahlung emission, superimposed with spectral lines from the plasma ion species (e.g., He, Mg, H{sub 2}, or CO lines). Forbidden lines are also expected from the metastable population. The presence of an atmospheric plasma opens the door to a multitude of plasma and chemical processes not yet considered in current atmospheric models. The occurrence of Alfvén ionization may also be applicable to other astrophysical environments such as protoplanetary disks.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Far-ultraviolet spectra and flux distributions of some Orion stars

Far-ultraviolet (950-1800 A) spectra with about 2 A resolution were obtained of a number of stars in Orion during a sounding-rocket flight 1975 December 6. These spectra have been reduced to absolute flux distributions with the aid of preflight calibrations. The derived fluxes are in good agreement with model-atmosphere predictions and previous observations down to about 1200 A. In the 1200-1080 A range, the present results are in good agreement with model predictions but fall above the rocket measurements of Brune, Mount and Feldman. Below 1080 A, our measurements fall below the model predictions, reaching a deviation of a factor of 2 near 1010 A and a factor of 4 near 950 A. The present results are compared with those of Brune et al. via Copernicus U2 observations in this spectral range, and possible sources of discrepancies between the various observations and model-atmosphere predictions are discussed. Other aspects of the spectra, particularly with regard to spectral classification, are briefly discussed.

Carruthers, G. R.↗

Development of a global model for atmospheric backscatter at CO2 wavelengths

Work on the following tasks is reported briefly: (1) to investigate the effect of aerosol microphysical processes, occurring in an aerosol plume which undergoes transport in the atmosphere, on its beta sub CO2 value and (2) to examine experimentally measured size distributions for the free troposphere, fit bimodal log-normal models with different retractive indices for the two modes, and calculate beta sub CO2.

Source record↗

IUE spectroscopy, visible-band photometry, and polarimetry of HD 47732 (V641 Monocerotis)

Several high- and low-dispersion IUE spectra are described for the hot, massive close binary HD 47732. The stellar silicon lines do not show theoretically expected strength, the weakness being attributed to incipicent emission. A weak stellar wind is measurable with an expansion velocity of about 500 km/s. There is difficulty in fitting a model atmosphere to all of the IUE continuum and visible band and IR measures. These difficulties are resolved by appealing to a 22,500 K model atmosphere and a distinctive interstellar extinction law. Numerous V band measures show the polarization to be variable, but not strongly in a phased-locked way. This suggests sporadic outbursts of gas feeding the shell. Several seasonal V band light curves are discussed, and the seasonal variations among them are attributed to variable developments of a systemic shell which scatters the photospheric light and dilutes to a variable degree the light variation due to ellipticity of figure of the component stars.

Koch, R. H.↗

Measurements of physical properties of model Titan atmospheres

One aspect of the study of Titan's atmosphere is the elucidation of the chemical and physical nature of the aerosols. In order to facilitate this, a program to produce laboratory synthesized model materials for Titan's aerosol and to study their chemical and physical properties is now in progress. Various processes, including electric discharge, photolysis by ultraviolet light, and irradiation by energetic particles, will be used to produce the materials. A first set of experiments where a nominal Titan mixture (97%N2, 3% CH4, 0.2% H2) was subjected to pulsed high temperature shocks yielded a reddish brown waxy solid. This material was subjected to pyrolysis/gas chromatography, a technique that has been proposed as a method for analysis of the Titan aerosols. Preliminary results show the material to consist of simple hydrocarbons but little else, at least up to temperatures of 600 C. Since the material was colored, compounds other than those mentioned above must be present.

Scattergood, T. W.↗

Examining Tropical Convection Features at Storm-Resolving Scales Over the Maritime Continent Region

Global Storm Resolving Models (GSRMs) provide a way to understand weather and climate events across scales for better-informed climate impacts. In this work, we apply the recently developed and validated CAM (Community Atmosphere Model)—MPAS (Model for Prediction Across Scales) modeling framework, based on the open-source Community Earth System Model (CESM2), to examine the tropical convection features at the storm resolving scale over the Maritime Continent region at 3 km horizontal spacing. We target two global numerical experiments during the winter season of 2018 for comparison with observation in the region. Here we focus on the investigation of the representations of the convective systems, precipitation statistics, and tropical cyclone behaviors. We found that regional-refined experiments show more accurate precipitation distributions, diurnal cycles, and better agreement with observations for tropical cyclone features in terms of intensity and strength statistics. We expect the exploration of this work will further advance the development and use of the storm-resolving model in precipitation predictions across scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗