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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Indian Ocean warming as key driver of long-term positive trend of Arctic Oscillation

Arctic oscillation (AO), which is the most dominant atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the boreal winter, significantly affects the weather and climate at mid-to-high latitudes in the NH. Although a climate community has focused on a negative trend of AO in recent decades, the significant positive trend of AO over the last 60 years has not yet been thoroughly discussed. By analyzing reanalysis and Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP) datasets with novel pacemaker experiments, we found that sea surface temperature warming in the Indian Ocean is conducive to the positive trend of AO from the late 1950s. The momentum flux convergence by stationary waves due to the Indian Ocean warming plays an important role in the positive trend of AO, which is characterized by a poleward shift of zonal-mean zonal winds. In addition, the reduced upward propagating wave activity flux over the North Pacific due to Indian Ocean warming also plays a role to strengthen the polar vortex, subsequently, it contributes to the positive trend of AO. Our results imply that the respective warming trend of tropical ocean basins including Indian Ocean, which is either anthropogenic forcing or natural variability or their combined effect, should be considered to correctly project the future AO’s trend.

Indian Ocean↗

On Dynamical Impacts on Stratospheric Water Vapor Trends Above Boulder, Colorado

Long-term stratospheric water vapor (SWV) trends above Boulder, CO, (40°N, 255°E) are generally positive and slightly larger than those for zonal average SWV. This study finds a slight enhancement for SWV at 31.6 hPa above Boulder from middle February through March 1979, as seen in the satellite dataset from the LIMS instrument. That excess of SWV correlates well with air in the polar vortex that underwent an elongation and splitting in middle February following a final stratospheric warming event. Zonal wave-2 events tend to occur in late winter, but not every year. Such aperiodic variations in data time series of SWV may affect the fitting of its linear trend term.

Ellis Remsberg↗

On Dynamical Impacts on Stratospheric Water Vapor Trends Above Boulder, Colorado

Long-term stratospheric water vapor (SWV) trends above Boulder, CO, (40°N, 255°E) are generally positive and slightly larger than those for zonal average SWV. This study finds a slight enhancement for SWV at 31.6 hPa above Boulder from middle February through March 1979, as seen in the satellite dataset from the LIMS instrument. That excess of SWV correlates well with air in the polar vortex that underwent an elongation and splitting in middle February following a final stratospheric warming event. Zonal wave-2 events tend to occur in late winter, but not every year. Such aperiodic variations in data time series of SWV may affect the fitting of its linear trend term.

Ellis Remsberg↗

Connections Between Upper Tropospheric and Lower Stratospheric Circulation Responses to Increased Co 2

There are a myriad of ways atmospheric circulation responds to increased CO 2 . In the troposphere, the region of the tropical upwelling narrows, the Hadley Cells expand, and the upper level subtropical zonal winds that comprise the subtropical jet strengthen. In the stratosphere, the tropical upwelling narrows and strengthens, enhancing the Brewer-Dobson Circulation. Despite the robustness of these projections, dynamical coupling between the features remains unclear. In this study, we analyze output from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE coupled climate model to examine any connection between the upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric circulation by considering the features’ seasonality, hemispheric asymmetry, scaling, and transient response to a broad range of CO 2 forcings. We find that a narrowing and strengthening of upper tropospheric upwelling occurs with a strengthening of the subtropical jet. There is also a narrowing and strengthening of lower stratospheric upwelling that is related to an equatorward shift in critical latitude for wave breaking and the associated strengthening of the subtropical lower stratosphere’s zonal winds. However, the stratospheric responses display different seasonal, hemispheric, and transient patterns than those in the troposphere, indicating independent circulation changes between the two domains.

Molly E. Menzel↗

The Impact of Atmospheric Dynamics and Anthropogenic Very Short-Lived Chlorine Species on the Recovery of Extra-Polar Ozone

The successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol has led to a decrease in the atmospheric abundance of ozone-depleting substances and a slowing in the destruction of the ozone layer. Previous studies have suggested that atmospheric dynamics, or a rise in compounds not regulated by the Montreal Protocol, such as very short-lived chlorine species (VSL Cl), may lead to a slower than expected recovery of the ozone layer. In this presentation, we examine the expected recovery of total column ozone (TCO) and stratospheric column ozone (SCO) to values observed in 1980 using a novel multiple linear regression (MLR) model that involves a month-by-month regression. The MLR model is trained to TCO anomalies from six data records (SBUV v8.7 MOD, SBUV v8.6 COH, WOUDC, GSG, GTO-ECV, MSR-2) over 1979 to 2021 for the Northern Hemisphere (35N – 60N), the Southern Hemisphere (60S – 35S) and the Tropics (20S – 20N), and SCO anomalies from ML-TOMCAT for these same zonal bands. The MLR includes the effect of halogens (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC)), total solar irradiance, stratospheric aerosol optical depth, quasi-biennial oscillation, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation as regressors. We also include the effect of atmospheric dynamics such as the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, Arctic Oscillation, and the Antarctic Oscillation, and VSL Cl species in the formulation of EESC. We use a novel approach to the MLR framework, by separating the observed and regressor time series into the respective months (separating all of the Januarys, Februarys, etc.). Then we conduct a regression for each month from 1979 to 2021 for the three zonal bands denoted above. The model results for each month are combined together to achieve a full monthly time series from 1979 to 2021. We use this novel approach to ascertain the effect of atmospheric dynamics on TCO and SCO, since the dynamical proxies affect ozone in a distinctly different manner for various months. In this presentation, we will quantify the role of both the inclusion of VSL Cl species in the formulation of EESC as well as atmospheric dynamics in explaining the slower than expected recovery of extra-polar TCO and SCO over the past decade.

Laura A. McBride↗

An Intense Narrow Equatorial Jet in Jupiter’s Lower Stratosphere Observed By JWST

The atmosphere of Jupiter has east–west zonal jets that alternate as a function of latitude as tracked by cloud motions at tropospheric levels. Above and below the cold tropopause at ~100 mbar, the equatorial atmosphere is covered by hazes at levels where thermal infrared observations used to characterize the dynamics of the stratosphere lose part of their sensitivity. James Webb Space Telescope observations of Jupiter in July 2022 show these hazes in higher detail than ever before and reveal the presence of an intense (140 m s −1 ) equatorial jet at 100–200 mbar (70 m s −1 faster than the zonal winds at the cloud level) that is confined to ±3° of the equator and is located below stratospheric thermal oscillations that extend at least from 0.1 to 40 mbar and repeat in multiyear cycles. This suggests that the new jet is a deep part of Jupiter’s Equatorial Stratospheric Oscillation and may therefore vary in strength over time.

Ricardo Hueso↗

Variability and Distribution of Nighttime Equatorial to Mid Latitude Ionospheric Irregularities and Vertical Plasma Drift Observed by FORMOSAT-5 Advanced Ionospheric Probe In-Situ Measurements from 2017 – 2020

Irregularities in ionospheric plasma distribution can result in severe scintillation and disruption to the radio frequencies utilized for satellite communications and navigation. In the low and mid latitudes, these irregularities can include Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs) and Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs). EPBs are irregularities manifesting in low latitude nighttime ionosphere plasma density that can extend along magnetic field lines with zonal scales on the order of 100 km or less, while TIDs are propagating wave disturbances. High frequency in-situ measurements of ionospheric plasma aboard spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) are a direct measurement of irregularities in plasma density and are therefore valuable for resolving EPB and TID occurrences, variability, and relation to other ionospheric parameters that are believed to play a driving role in the formation of such irregularities. In this study, we utilize observations taken over a three-year period between 2017 and 2020 by the Advanced Ionospheric Probe (AIP) carried aboard the FORMOSAT-5 satellite to examine the spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability of equatorial to mid latitude ionospheric irregularities and vertical ion drift during this time. AIP provides in-situ measurements of ion density and vertical ion drift in the equatorial to mid latitude ionosphere at approximately 720 km altitude with local times between 22:00 – 23:00 local time. Our global scale results resolve distinct and inter-annually recurrent seasonal patterns in the distribution of nighttime ionospheric irregularities and vertical plasma drift during this time. Elevated occurrences of ion density irregularities are resolved along the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) latitudes, while notable occurrences with variability consistent with EPBs also observed along the low and equatorial magnetic latitudes. Zonal variability of equatorial irregularities consistent with the signatures of nonmigrating atmospheric tides are observed. It is also notable that the occurrences and geographic distribution of ion density irregularities showed a considerable level of interannual variability, especially at mid latitudes over the South Atlantic and Southern African sectors, which showed much higher levels of irregularities in 2017–––2018, compared to 2019 and 2020. In comparison, the spatial and interannual variation of the co-located vertical ion drifts were much more consistent during the years examined, indicating that the driver for the observed interannual variability in ion density irregularities cannot be attributed to the vertical ion drift at the same time and location of the observations. This highlights the need for in-situ instruments distributed across multiple satellites in different local time zones.

ionosphere↗

Uranus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Uranus-GRAM) 2024: User Guide

Engineers and mission planners designing vehicles that pass through Uranus’ atmosphere require an atmospheric model that calculates the mean values and variations of atmospheric properties. The Uranus Global Reference Atmospheric Model(Uranus-GRAM)is an engineering- oriented model that provides this information based on data from Voyager observations. Uranus- GRAM is designed to offer mission planners the flexibility to select input parameters such as time, latitude, and longitude. Uranus-GRAM outputs atmospheric constituent data and mean values for atmospheric density, temperature, pressure, and zonal wind along a user defined path. Uranus-GRAM also provides dispersions of density and zonal wind. Uranus-GRAM is one option in the GRAM Suite that shares a common software core with the other planetary GRAMs while maintaining Uranus specific models. Additionally, documentation, including this User Guide, a Programmer’s Manual, and trajectory code interfaces has been made available with the software release. This Technical Memorandum summarizes the atmospheric data model in Uranus-GRAM and provides a guide for the user to obtain, set up, and run the code in various configurations. Section 2 describes the input atmospheric data files and how they are used in Uranus-GRAM. Section 3 explains the process to obtain the Uranus-GRAM code, the data files, and how to set up and run the program. Appendices A through E provide additional details regarding the Uranus-GRAM input and output files. Appendix F provides a history of Uranus-GRAM revisions.

atmospheric models↗

Dynamics of the Remarkable Southern Hemisphere Winter of 2024

Typical Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric winters are characterized by relatively weak planetary wave dynamics when compared to the Northern Hemisphere winter, especially in early and mid-winter. However, the SH stratospheric winter 2024 saw the development of two large wave events in July. These wave events were associated with the slowing of the polar vortex winds and positive polar temperature anomalies. The second of these two events saw the development of a zonal wavenumber two that was larger in amplitude than seen in the 1980-present record from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications – version 2 (MERRA-2). Here we present diagnostics characterizing the wave and mean circulation such as EP (Eliassen-Palm Flux) and residual mean meridional circulation during these events and trace the origin of these stratospheric disturbances to the troposphere. Results show the increase in wave activity associated with the slowing of the zonal wind and the increase in the strength of the poleward and downward circulation associated with the warm anomaly. Analysis of the wave and circulation anomalies will continue through September 2024.

Lawrence Coy↗

Utah FORGE 1-2410: Development of a Smart Completion and Stimulation Solution - Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Development of a Smart Completion & Stimulation Solution project by Welltec in collaboration with the University of Oklahoma, presented by Yosafat Esquitin, a Senior Business Development Manager at Welltec. The project's objective was to develop an annular isolation system, a stimulation isolation system, and a multi-open-close flow system for geothermal environments. These systems were developed to enable effective zonal isolation and stimulation, implement downhole Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) in any location, and extend the productive life of the geothermal well. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on September 7, 2023. The workshop provided a valuable opportunity to explore the progress made in each of the 17 Research and Development projects funded under Solicitation 2020-1 which aim to enhance our understanding of the crucial factors influencing the development EGS reservoirs and resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The Role of Coupled Feedbacks in the Decadal Variability of the Southern Hemisphere Eddy-Driven Jet

The Southern Hemisphere summertime eddy-driven jet and storm tracks have shifted poleward over the recent few decades. In previous studies, explanations have mainly stressed the influence of external forcing in driving this trend. Here we examine the role of internal tropical SST variability in controlling the austral summer jet’s poleward migration, with a focus on interdecadal time scales. The role of external forcing and internal variability are isolated by using a hierarchy of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, including the pre-industrial control, large ensemble, and pacemaker runs. Model simulations suggest that in the early twenty-first century, both external forcing and internal tropical Pacific SST variability are important in driving a positive southern annular mode (SAM) phase and a poleward migration of the eddy-driven jet. Additionally, Tropical Pacific SST variability, associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), acts to shift the jet poleward over the southern Indian and southwestern Pacific Oceans and intensify the jet in the southeastern Pacific basin, while external forcing drives a significant poleward jet shift in the South Atlantic basin. In response to both external forcing and decadal Pacific SST variability, the transient eddy momentum flux convergence belt in the middle latitudes experiences a poleward migration due to the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, leading to a zonally symmetric southward migration of the eddy-driven jet. This mechanism distinguishes the influence of the IPO on the midlatitude circulation from the dynamical impact of ENSO, with the latter mainly promoting the subtropical wave-breaking critical latitude poleward and pushing the midlatitude jet to higher latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Convolutional Neural Network-Based Protection-Zone Classification of Faults in Distribution Feeders with Photovoltaics.

Fault detection and isolation is critical for reliable operation of distribution systems. The ride-through requirements for the distributed energy resources (DER), mandated by the IEEE 1547-2018 standard, makes it challenging to use undervoltage (UV) conditions for fault detection. In addition, with low fault current contribution from these inverter-based DERs, the time-overcurrent relays are also less effective. Thus motivated, this paper presents a learning-based approach for fault detection and localization. A convolutional neural network (CNN)-based model is proposed which uses local voltage and current waveforms from DER locations and feeder substations, for training a zonal classifier. The classifier can be adopted into any relay-like device for discriminating between faults originating from different protection zones. The performance of the proposed approach was tested on publicly available test feeders with distributed photovoltaics (PVs).

Fault localization, convolutional neural networks,↗

Utah FORGE GeoThermOPTIMAL Video

This is a project description video by Dr. William W. Fleckenstein related to their "Development of Multi-Stage Fracturing System and Wellbore Tractor to Enable Zonal Isolation During Stimulation and EGS Operations in Horizontal Wellbores" R&D project at Utah FORGE which is linked bellow.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗