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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

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NASA NTRS2021

The Toba Supervolcano Eruption Caused Severe Tropical Stratospheric Ozone Depletion

Supervolcano eruptions have occurred throughout Earth’s history and have major environmental impacts. These impacts are mostly associated with the attenuation of visible sunlight by stratospheric sulfate aerosols, which causes cooling and deceleration of the water cycle. Supereruptions have been assumed to cause so-called volcanic winters that act as primary evolutionary factors through ecosystem disruption and famine, however, winter conditions alone may not be sufficient to cause such disruption. Here we use Earth system model simulations to show that stratospheric sulfur emissions from the Toba supereruption 74,000 years ago caused severe stratospheric ozone loss through a radiation attenuation mechanism that only moderately depends on the emission magnitude. The Toba plume strongly inhibited oxygen photolysis, suppressing ozone formation in the tropics, where exceptionally depleted ozone conditions persisted for over a year. This effect, when combined with volcanic winter in the extra-tropics, can account for the impacts of supereruptions on ecosystems and humanity.

Atmospheric chemistry↗

NASA NTRS2021

The Influence of Direct Radiative Forcing Versus Indirect Sea Surface Temperature Warming on Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Anticyclones Under Global Warming

Southern hemisphere subtropical anticyclones are projected to change in a warmer climate during both austral summer and winter. A recent study of CMIP 5 & 6 projections found a combination of local diabatic heating changes and static-stability-induced changes in baroclinic eddy growth as the dominant drivers. Yet the underlying mechanisms forcing these changes still remain uninvestigated. This study aims to enhance our mechanistic understanding of what drives these Southern Hemisphere anticyclones changes during both seasons. Using an AGCM, we decompose the response to CO2-induced warming into two components: (1) the fast atmospheric response to direct CO2 radiative forcing, and (2) the slow atmospheric response due to indirect sea surface temperature warming. Additionally, we isolate the influence of tropical diabatic heating with AGCM added heating experiments. As a complement to our numerical AGCM experiments, we analyze the Atmospheric and Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project experiments. Results from sensitivity experiments show that slow subtropical sea surface temperature warming primarily forces the projected changes in subtropical anticyclones through baroclinicity change. Fast CO2 atmospheric radiative forcing on the other hand plays a secondary role, with the most notable exception being the South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone in austral winter, where it opposes the forcing by sea surface temperature changes resulting in a muted net response. Lastly, we find that tropical diabatic heating changes only significantly influence Southern Hemisphere subtropical anticyclone changes through tropospheric wind shear changes during austral winter.

Subtropical anticyclone↗

NASA NTRS2022

Exploring the Inorganic Composition of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer Using Medium-Duration Balloon Flights

Satellite observations have revealed an enhanced aerosol layer near the tropopause over Asia during the summer monsoon, called the “Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer” (ATAL). In this work, aerosol particles in the ATAL were collected with a balloon-borne impactor near the tropopause region over India, using extended-duration balloon flights, in summer 2017 and winter 2018. The chemical composition of these particles was further investigated by quantitative analysis using offline ion chromatography. Nitrate (NO_3 ^1) and nitrite (NO_2 ^-) were found to be the dominant ions in the collected aerosols with values ranging between 87 and 343 ng m^(−3) at STP (standard temperature and pressure) during the summer campaign. In contrast, sulfate (SO_4 ^(2-)) levels were found to be above the detection limit (>10 ng m^(−3) at STP) only in winter. In addition, we determined the origin of the air masses sampled during the flights using the analysis of back trajectories as well as a convective proxy from cloud-top temperature fields derived from a geostationary satellite. The results obtained from this analysis were put into the context of large-scale transport and aerosol distribution using GEOS-Chem chemical transport model simulations. The first flight in summer 2017 which sampled an air mass within the Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA), influenced by convection over Western China, was associated with particle size diameters from 0.05 to 0.15 µm. In contrast, the second flight sampled air masses at the edge of the AMA associated with a larger particle size radius (>2 µm) with a higher NO_2 ^- concentration. The sampled air masses in winter 2018 were likely affected by smoke from the Pacific Northwest fire event in Canada, which occurred 7 months before our campaign, associated with concentration enhancements of SO_4 (^2-) and Ca^(2+). Overall, our results suggest that nitrogen-containing particles represent a large fraction of cloud-free and in-cloud aerosols populating the ATAL, which is partially in agreement with the results from aircraft measurements during the StratoClim (Stratospheric and upper tropospheric processes for better climate predictions) campaign. The exact nature of those particles is still unknown, but their coincidences with subvisible cirrus clouds and their sizes suggest nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) as a possible candidate, as NAT has already been observed in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in other studies. Furthermore, GEOS-Chem model simulations indicate that lightning NOx emissions could have significantly impacted the production of nitrate aerosols sampled during the summer of 2017.

Hazel Vernier↗

NASA NTRS2023

Convective Impact on the Global Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor Budget

Water vapor in the stratosphere is primarily controlled by temperatures in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. However, the direct impact of deep convection on the global lower stratospheric water vapor budget is still an actively debated issue. Two complementary modeling approaches are used to investigate the convective impact in boreal winter and summer. Convective influence is diagnosed by tracing trajectories through convective cloud top altitude fields derived from global rainfall and brightness temperature data. Backward trajectory model simulations coupled with a detailed treatment of cloud microphysical processes indicate that convection moistens the global lower stratosphere by approximately 0.3 ppmv in boreal winter and summer 2010. The diurnal peak in convection is responsible for about half of the total convective moistening during winter and nearly all of the convective moistening during summer. Deep convective clouds overshooting the tropopause have relatively minor effect on global lower stratospheric water vapor. A forward trajectory model coupled with a simplified cloud module is used to estimate the relative magnitude of the interannual variability of the convective impact. Combining the results from the two models, we find that the convective impact on the global lower stratospheric water vapor during 2006-2016 is approximately 0.3 ppmv with year-to-year variations of up to 0.1 ppmv. An important mechanism of convective hydration of the lower stratosphere is via the detrainment of saturated air and ice into the tropical uppermost troposphere and the subsequent upward transport of some of these moist air parcels across relatively warm and subsaturated tropopause.

CONVECTION↗

NASA NTRS2022

Seasonal Updraft Speeds Change Cloud Droplet Number Concentrations in Low Level Clouds Over the Western North Atlantic

To determine the impact of dynamic and aerosol processes on marine low clouds, we examine the seasonal impact of updraft speed w and cloud condensation nuclei concentration at 0.43 % supersaturation () on the cloud droplet number concentration (N(C)) of low-level clouds over the western North Atlantic Ocean. Aerosol and cloud properties were measured with instruments on board the NASA LaRC Falcon HU-25 during the ACTIVATE (Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment) mission in summer (August) and winter (February–March) 2020. The data are grouped into different loadings, and the density functions of NC and w near the cloud bases are compared. For low updrafts (w < 1.3 m s−1), NC in winter is mainly limited by the updraft speed and in summer additionally by aerosols. At larger updrafts (w > 3 m s−1), NC is impacted by the aerosol population, while at clean marine conditions cloud nucleation is aerosol-limited, and for high it is influenced by aerosols and updraft. The aerosol size distribution in winter shows a bimodal distribution in clean marine environments, which transforms to a unimodal distribution in high due to chemical and physical aerosol processes, whereas unimodal distributions prevail in summer, with a significant difference in their aerosol concentration and composition. The increase of is accompanied with an increase of organic aerosol and sulfate compounds in both seasons. We demonstrate that NC can be explained by cloud condensation nuclei activation through upwards processed air masses with varying fractions of activated aerosols. The activation highly depends on w and thus supersaturation between the different seasons, while the aerosol size distribution additionally affects NC within a season. Our results quantify the seasonal influence of w and on NC and can be used to improve the representation of low marine clouds in models.

Simon Kirschler↗

NASA NTRS2023

Seasonal Temperatures in West Antarctica During the Holocene

The recovery of long-term climate proxy records with seasonal resolution is rare because of natural smoothing processes, discontinuities, and limitations in measurement resolution. Yet insolation forcing, a primary driver of multi-millennial-scale climate change, acts through seasonal variations with direct impacts on seasonal climate. Whether the sensitivity of seasonal climate to insolation matches theoretical predictions has not been assessed over long timescales. Here, we analyze a continuous record of water-isotope ratios from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide ice core to reveal summer and winter temperature changes through the last 11,000 years. Summer temperatures in West Antarctica increased through the early-to-mid Holocene, reached a peak at 4.1 ka, and then decreased to the present. Climate model simulations show that these variations primarily reflect changes in maximum summer insolation, confirming the general connection between seasonal insolation and warming, and demonstrating the importance of insolation intensity rather than seasonally integrated insolation or season duration. Winter temperatures varied less overall, consistent with predictions from insolation forcing, but also fluctuated in the early Holocene, likely owing to changes in meridional heat transport. The magnitudes of summer and winter temperature changes constrain the lowering of the WAIS surface since the early Holocene to less than 162 m, and most likely less than 58 m, consistent with geological constraints elsewhere in West Antarctica.

Cryospheric science↗

NASA NTRS2023

Overview and Statistical Analysis of Boundary Layer Clouds and Precipitation Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean

Due to their fast evolution and large natural variability in macro- and microphysical properties, the accurate representation of boundary layer clouds in current climate models remains a challenge. One of the regions with large intermodel spread in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 ensemble is the western North Atlantic Ocean. Here, statistically representative in situ measurements can help to develop and constrain the parameterization of clouds in global models. To this end, we performed comprehensive measurements of boundary layer clouds, aerosol, trace gases, and radiation in the western North Atlantic Ocean during the NASA Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) mission. In total, 174 research flights with 574 flight hours for cloud and precipitation measurements were performed with the HU-25 Falcon during three winter (February–March 2020, January–April 2021, and November 2021–March 2022) and three summer seasons (August–September 2020, May–June 2021, and May–June 2022). Here we present a statistical evaluation of 16 140 individual cloud events probed by the fast cloud droplet probe and the two-dimensional stereo cloud probe during 155 research flights in a representative and repetitive flight strategy allowing for robust statistical data analyses. We show that the vertical profiles of distributions of the liquid water content and the cloud droplet effective diameter (ED) increase with altitude in the marine boundary layer. Due to higher updraft speeds, higher cloud droplet number concentrations (N liquid ) were measured in winter compared to summer despite lower cloud condensation nucleus abundance. Flight cloud cover derived from statistical analysis of in situ data is reduced in summer and shows large variability. This seasonal contrast in cloud coverage is consistent with a dominance of a synoptic pattern in winter that favors conditions for the formation of stratiform clouds at the western edge of cyclones (post-cyclonic). In contrast, a dominant summer anticyclone is concomitant with the occurrence of shallow cumulus clouds and lower cloud coverage. The evaluation of boundary layer clouds and precipitation in the N liquid ED phase space sheds light on liquid, mixed-phase, and ice cloud properties and helps to categorize the cloud data. Ice and liquid precipitation, often masked in cloud statistics by a high abundance of liquid clouds, is often observed throughout the cloud. The ACTIVATE in situ cloud measurements provide a wealth of cloud information useful for assessing airborne and satellite remote-sensing products, for global climate and weather model evaluations, and for dedicated process studies that address precipitation and aerosol–cloud interactions.

Aerosol↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of Correlation between Cold Weather Meteorological Variables and Electricity Outages

The significance of the impact of weather on the electric grid has grown as climate change continues to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. In recent years (2021-2022) in particular, extreme winter weather has affected the grid in locations in the US rarely exposed to extreme low temperatures, snow and icing conditions. Here we analyze the correlation between cold weather meteorological variables and electricity outages during two large winter storm events, Uri (February 2021) and Landon (February 2022) using Random Forest machine learning and Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Our geographical focus across the two storms is the state of Texas. Extrapolation of the method to winter weather impacts over other years and additional locations is proposed.

Dumas, Melissa↗

DOE OSTI2022

Load Shifting with Space Conditioning Heat Pumps During Heating Season in the Pacific Northwest

Ductless mini- and multi-split heat pumps are commonly deployed in Pacific Northwest residences, which historically have inefficient space heating and no space cooling. Heat pumps provide these residences with more energy-efficient space heating in the winter and space cooling for increasingly warm summer periods. For many of these applications, heat pumps add a new electrical load at the residence, compelling regional utilities to seek to understand their impacts on the electrical grid and opportunities for load management. In coordination with regional utilities, this study examined the winter load-shifting potential of residential multi-split heat pumps with variable capacity technology. The study included nine residential sites with a total of 20 ductless indoor units, which underwent simulated smart grid control. Grid control functionality was provided through the CTA-2045 communication protocol and included offsetting temperature setpoints for individual indoor units in the study. Field data collection included whole-house and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning electrical power consumption; indoor zone temperatures; occupant surveys; and CTA-2045 curtailment data for both baseline and simulated load-shifting events by site. This paper provides an overview of the load-shifting strategies and aggregated results from winter data collection.

ASHRAE, Heat pump, energy effciency, residential b↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Hydrological Data on Power System Operational Studies: Preprint

Hydropower is expected to play an important role in maintaining grid reliability and flexibility as the share of of variable renewable energy increases. While the current hydropower operational models have been studied and used widely, they haven't been updated for decades to meet new performance standards. For example, current steady state and dynamic models often neglect hydrological conditions, which may lead to unrealistic expectations when relying on hydropower for energy and ancillary services. To study this impact, a multi-timescale hydrological model was created by leveraging the National Renewable Energy Laboratory-developed Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamics and Scheduling (MIDAS) tool. Using MIDAS, we compare the impact of considering hydrological conditions in a day-ahead unit commitment (DAUC) schedule on the reduced 240-bus Western Interconnect (WI) test system under winter and summer case studies. We show that neglecting current hydrological conditions of hydropower plants in power system models can lead to an overestimation of hydropower capabilities, which could lead to power balancing issues. For example, power system DAUC simulation results of our reduced test system show that in the case where hydrological conditions are not considered in the model, an approximate 31% overestimation of hydropower capabilities occurs in the summer case and approximately 60% occurs in the winter case compared to what is available. Additionally, results show an underestimation of WI day-ahead power system generation costs by approximately $54M - $80M in the weekly summer scenario and $116M - $126M in the weekly winter scenario. This analysis helps to underscore the importance of considering hydrological data in power system operational studies.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Analyzing at-scale distribution grid response to extreme temperatures

Threats against power grids continue to increase, as extreme weather conditions and natural disasters (extreme events) become more frequent. Hence, there is a need for the simulation and modeling of power grids to reflect realistic conditions during extreme events conditions, especially distribution systems. Herein, this paper presents a modeling and simulation platform for electric distribution grids which can estimate overall power demand during extreme weather conditions. The presented platform's efficacy is shown by demonstrating estimation of electrical demand for 1) Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) during winter storm Uri in 2021, and 2) alternative hypothetical scenarios of integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), weatherization, and load electrification. In comparing to the actual demand served by ERCOT during the winter storm Uri of 2021, the proposed platform estimates approximately 34 GW of peak capacity deficit. These numbers are consistent with state-of-the-art prediction results published in the literature. For the case of the future electrification of heating loads, peak capacity of 78 GW (124% increase) is estimated, which would be reduced to 47 GW (38% increase) with the adoption of efficient heating appliances and improved thermal insulation. Integrating distributed solar PV and storage into the grid causes improvement in the local energy utilization and hence reduces the potential unmet energy by 31% and 40%, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing thermal resilience of US residential homes in hot humid climates during extreme temperature events

Increasing occurrences of extreme weather events such as winter storms and heat waves due to climate change pose enormous safety and health-related risks to people, particularly in economically disadvantaged communities. In this study, we investigate some of the most promising retrofittable and weatherization methods to keep the living zone of residential buildings within an acceptable safety level. We use hours of safety as the resilience metric, which is defined as the time taken by the building's indoor environment to reach a safety threshold temperature. We first identify various passive measures, such as adding extra insulation, improving air sealing, and integrating phase-change materials, which can operate without any external power during winter-storm and heat-wave events. We then employ a whole-building simulation tool to examine the impact of various combinations of retrofit measures and conduct a parametric study to determine the optimal solutions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future Changes in Midwest Extreme Precipitation Depend on Storm Type

Midwestern U.S. extreme precipitation is associated with multiple storm types including mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and/or training thunderstorms, tropical cyclone (TC) remnants, and winter storms. Anthropogenic warming is expected to increase climatological precipitation globally, however, there may be little correspondence with regional storm-based changes. Furthermore, uncertainty remains in precipitation-temperature scaling due to use of convective parameterization in most global models. In this study, we investigated historically impactful extreme precipitation events from multiple types of Midwest storms using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at convection-permitting resolution. We simulated five-member ensembles of historical hindcasts and experiments representing the storms in the future using the pseudo-global warming method. We found that future precipitation changes depend on storm type, with increases near Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) for winter storms, no consensus for MCSs and/or training thunderstorms, and sub-CC increases for TC remnants. This research highlights the importance of considering storm type in future extreme precipitation projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

The 183-WSL Fast Rain Rate Retrieval Algorithm. Part II: Validation Using Ground Radar Measurements

The Water vapour Strong Lines at 183 GHz (183-WSL) algorithm is a method for the retrieval of rain rates and precipitation type classification (convectivestratiform), that makes use of the water vapor absorption lines centered at 183.31 GHz of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit module B (AMSU-B) and of the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) flying on NOAA-15-18 and NOAA-19Metop-A satellite series, respectively. The characteristics of this algorithm were described in Part I of this paper together with comparisons against analogous precipitation products. The focus of Part II is the analysis of the performance of the 183-WSL technique based on surface radar measurements. The ground truth dataset consists of 2.5 years of rainfall intensity fields from the NIMROD European radar network which covers North-Western Europe. The investigation of the 183-WSL retrieval performance is based on a twofold approach: 1) the dichotomous statistic is used to evaluate the capabilities of the method to identify rain and no-rain clouds; 2) the accuracy statistic is applied to quantify the errors in the estimation of rain rates.The results reveal that the 183-WSL technique shows good skills in the detection of rainno-rain areas and in the quantification of rain rate intensities. The categorical analysis shows annual values of the POD, FAR and HK indices varying in the range 0.80-0.82, 0.330.36 and 0.39-0.46, respectively. The RMSE value is 2.8 millimeters per hour for the whole period despite an overestimation in the retrieved rain rates. Of note is the distribution of the 183-WSL monthly mean rain rate with respect to radar: the seasonal fluctuations of the average rainfalls measured by radar are reproduced by the 183-WSL. However, the retrieval method appears to suffer for the winter seasonal conditions especially when the soil is partially frozen and the surface emissivity drastically changes. This fact is verified observing the discrepancy distribution diagrams where2the 183-WSL performs better during the warm months, while during the winter time the discrepancies with radar measurements tends to maximum values. A stable behavior of the 183-WSL algorithm is demonstrated over the whole study period with an overall overestimation for rain rates intensities lower than 1 millimeter per hour. This threshold is crucial especially in wintertime where the low precipitation regime is difficult to be classified.

validationradar↗

NASA NTRS2016

Temperature-Related Death and Illness

Based on present-day sensitivity to heat, an increase of thousands to tens of thousands of premature heat-related deaths in the summer and a decrease of premature cold-related deaths in the winter are projected each year as a result of climate change by the end of the century. Future adaptation will very likely reduce these impacts (see Changing Tolerance to Extreme Heat Finding). The reduction in cold-related deaths is projected to be smaller than the increase in heat-related deaths in most regions. Days that are hotter than usual in the summer or colder than usual in the winter are both associated with increased illness and death. Mortality effects are observed even for small differences from seasonal average temperatures. Because small temperature differences occur much more frequently than large temperature differences, not accounting for the effect of these small differences would lead to underestimating the future impact of climate change. An increase in population tolerance to extreme heat has been observed over time. Changes in this tolerance have been associated with increased use of air conditioning, improved social responses, and or physiological acclimatization, among other factors. Expected future increases in this tolerance will reduce the projected increase in deaths from heat. Older adults and children have a higher risk of dying or becoming ill due to extreme heat. People working outdoors, the socially isolated and economically disadvantaged, those with chronic illnesses, as well as some communities of color, are also especially vulnerable to death or illness.

winter↗

NASA NTRS2018

Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool

FACT is a software program that provides important information about winter weather operations to airline dispatchers and airport personnel. FACT has a "quad" design and shows various maps, text, and tabular information. It also has a team messaging capability. It is meant to be used by airline dispatchers and airport personnel to manage winter storms. This slide set provides a description of FACT that will be released to airline and airport partners who are helping to evaluate FACT. It was most recently presented at a Southwest Airlines meeting at NASA Ames on April 3, 2018.

airline operations center↗

NASA NTRS2018

Flight Awareness Collaboration Tool

dispatcher↗

NASA NTRS2021

Sustainable Use of Groundwater May Dramatically Reduce Irrigated Production of Maize, Soybean, and Wheat

Groundwater extraction in the United States (US) is unsustainable, making it essential to understand the impacts of limited water use on irrigated agriculture. To improve this understanding, we integrated a gridded crop model with satellite observations, recharge estimates, and water survey data to assess the effects of sustainable groundwater withdrawals on US irrigated agricultural production. The gridded crop model agrees with satellite-based estimates of evapotranspiration (R2 = 0.68), as well as survey data from the United States Department of Agriculture (R2 = 0.82–0.94 for county-level production and 0.37–0.54 for county-level yield). Using the optimistic assumption that groundwater extraction equals effective aquifer recharge rate, we find that sustainable groundwater use decreases US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat by 20%, 6%, and 25%, respectively. Using a more conservative assumption of groundwater availability, US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat decreases by 45%, 37%, and 36%, respectively. The wide range of simulated losses is driven by considerable uncertainty in surface water and groundwater interactions, as well as accounting for the many aspects of sustainability. Our results demonstrate the vulnerability of US irrigated agriculture to unsustainable groundwater pumping, highlighting the difficulty of expanding or even maintaining irrigated food production in the face of climate change, population growth, and shifting dietary demands. These findings are based on reducing pumping by fallowing irrigated farmland; however, alternate pumping reduction strategies or technological advances in crop genetics and irrigation could produce different results.

sustainability↗