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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Assessing Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Types: Relevant Data and Play Fairway Analysis Methods

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) is supporting the Geothermal Heating and Cooling Geospatial Datasets and Analysis project conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) as part of a broader effort to demonstrate the multi-faceted value of integrating geothermal power and geothermal heating and cooling (GHC) technologies into national decarbonization plans and community energy plans. Currently, there is a need to establish baseline low-temperature geothermal resource datasets and evaluate methods for deploying these technologies to provide the basis for supporting private sector investment. This project is focused on collecting baseline datasets, updating conceptual models, and creating Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) workflows for low-temperature (<150 degrees Celsius) geothermal resources of different geothermal play types (i.e., sedimentary basin, orogenic belts, and radiogenic geothermal play types) that could be used for geothermal heating and cooling (GHC), combined heat and power (CHP), and other geothermal direct uses (GDU) applications. Low-temperature geothermal resources are defined as reservoirs - natural or engineered - with temperatures <150 degrees Celsius. While the focus in the NREL effort is on GHC, resources at the upper end of this temperature range can also be used for small-scale power generation. This project does not include Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) technologies because they can be effectively developed almost anywhere. Low-temperature geothermal resources have not been studied as extensively as higher- to medium-temperature geothermal resources, but there is recent interest in improving understanding of these types of resources with an uptick of interest in geothermal technologies for decarbonizing heating and cooling systems. In addition, Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and other emerging technologies for exploiting petrothermal resources have opened the possibility of utilizing deep sedimentary basin systems, where porous media provide permeability and high temperatures can be reached at great depths. This project takes the approach of classifying low- temperature geothermal resources by geothermal play type (GPT). We defined and characterized three major classes of low-temperature GPT: sedimentary basins, orogenic systems, and radiogenic systems. We develop methodologies for evaluating and analyzing the potential for these resources building off the PFA approach to de-risking geothermal exploration and characterization. The proposed PFA approach for low-temperature geothermal resources includes: 1) identifying relevant data (e.g., datasets such bottom-hole temperatures from oil and gas wells, heat flow data, Quaternary faults and stress field data, geophysical data, etc.); 2) grouping and weighting of relevant datasets into PFA criteria (e.g., geological, risk, and economic criteria); 3) uncertainty quantification; 4) developing favorability or common risk maps for low-temperature geothermal resources to identify potential locations for more focused data collection; and 5) estimating electric power generation and heating potential at those locations using the GeoRePORT Resource Size Assessment Tool (RSAT). This project should facilitate future deployment of GHC, CHP, and GDU by providing data, tools, and a workflow applicable to low-temperature geothermal resources. Increased deployment of GHC and GDU will help achieve national and local decarbonization goals.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

TRUST Sensors in Environments: Fiber Optic Displacement (SEFOD) Report

The sensors in environments for fiber optic displacement gages (SEFOD) testbed is a collaboration between W-13, and E-14. Testbeds in this project are focused on characterization and propagation of the uncertainty in experimental techniques used by E-14 in WR-like environments. Discussions with SMEs identified instrumentation as the best candidates for single feature testbeds addressing experimental uncertainty sources. Previous work and student projects have addressed instrumentation uncertainty quantification of thermocouples, load cells, and accelerometers.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Hydrogen Diffusion Coefficient Measures on Thin Film Uranium Oxide

Thin films of uranium oxides, putatively UO 2 and U 3 O 8 , were deposited on palladium/silver (75/25) foil discs (10 μm thick, 10 mm diameter). Methodology for sealing these foils, applying a hydrogen pressure (~ 1 atm) to the oxide side, and measuring the pressure on the permeate side (opposite side of foil) is reported. The experimental apparatus is held at 100 °C to speed diffusion, aided by the pressure differential across the foil (~1 atm (750 torr) on oxide side, initially low vacuum on permeate side, ~1x 10 -4 torr). Early results indicate an effective diffusion coefficient of roughly 7.66 x 10 -17 +/- 2.22 x 10 -17 cm 2 /sec for UO 2 . These values are in line with expectations and prior measures relative to large lag times for system baseline (substrate only). Evaluation of the technique for U 3 O 8 thin films suggests further development will be needed to extend the technique to more oxidized films (U 3 O 8 , UO 3 ). Characterization of the foils (thickness and speciation) post diffusion experiments will be carried out by SIGMA (Eric Tegtmeier and Andy Richards) in FY24 which will sharpen the uncertainty quantification for UO 2 diffusion coefficients, aiding the nucleation model for DRACO.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Method for Generating Expert Derived Confidence Scores

We executed a pilot demonstration of a methodology for developing a new confidence metric to help operators calibrate their trust in ML event classifiers. This confidence metric was derived from domain expert judgment and was accompanied with a qualitative description describing the reason for each confidence rating. After learning the boundaries of an ML’s performance by studying a subset of events an SME rated his confidence in the ML’s ability to classify similar events and provided an explanation for his ratings. To demonstrate this methodology, we developed our expert driven confidence scores for the ML event classifier within the ESAMS. Next, we assessed the accuracy of the human expert confidence scores relative to the ML’s uncertainty quantification scores. This report includes a description of our methodology, summary of our findings and future directions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tech-X contributions to the Center for Tokamak Transients (CTTS) Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) project (Final Report)

The Center for Tokamak Transients Simulations (CTTS) consists of computational plasma physicists, computer scientists, and applied mathematicians who are together developing and applying simulation software to improve our understanding of and ability to predict and control transient events in tokamak discharges, particularly those that lead to violent disruptions. We have major simulation activities concerning disruptions that are caused by violating ideal MHD stability criteria, vertical displacement events, resistive wall modes, and tearing modes. We are performing comprehensive modeling of disruption mitigation techniques, particularly by shattered pellet injection (SPI). The Center is built around two mature extended MHD codes: NIMROD and M3D-C1. These codes are being extended in a number of ways as required by the demands of disruption modeling, and are being optimized to work well for larger problem size and modern computer architectures as required to model tokamak plasmas with realistic parameters over the required timescales. The codes will be coupled to the FronTier code for state-of-the-art modeling of SPI. Validation with experimental data on DIII-D, NSTX, and JET is being facilitated by rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ). The high-level objectives of the center are to: (1) Develop better understanding and improved predictive capability of when crossing a linear stability boundary will likely lead to a disruption, (2) Provide a tool for calculating vessel forces, both axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric, for worst case VDE and other disruptions in tokamaks, (3) Develop increased understanding and improved predictive capability for locked mode disruptions and how best to avoid them, (4) Develop, verify, and validate 3D models for disruption mitigation by shattered pellets that can be used to design and optimize a system for future tokamaks, and (5) Increase the efficiency and scalability of the M3D-C1 and NIMROD codes so that they can model disruptions in ITER scale devices using the most powerful DOE HPC hardware, and (6) Demonstrate code-coupling via FronTier coupling with NIMROD and M3D-C1 and by interfacing these codes within a WDM framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tokamak Disruption Simulation (Final Technical Report)

This was a multi-institutional project concerned with simulation of tokamak disruption – rapid termination of the plasma and confining magnetic field in a tokamak fusion reactor – with the aim of quantifying the physics associated with disruption mitigation. The PI’s role is as one of a group of computational scientists concerned with development of effective solution algorithms for the underlying models of magnetohydrodynamics and transport that represent the physical processes, and to develop techniques of uncertainty quantification for treating unknown aspects of the model such as boundary conditions and effects of impurities in plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Summary Report of the 2nd RCM of the CRP on Updating Fission Yield Data for Applications

The Second Research Coordination Meeting of the IAEA Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on Updating Fission Yield Data for Applications was held in Vienna at the IAEA headquarters from 19 to 23 December 2022, with 23 international experts attending the meeting. The CRP is devoted to evaluation efforts of cumulative and independent fission yields for incident energies from the thermal point up to 14 MeV on actinide targets. Produced fission yield evaluations should include full uncertainty quantification and are expected to combine available experimental data and state-of-the-art model information. The activities undertaken within this CRP were reviewed including the assessment of newly measured data and ongoing evaluation efforts. Technical discussions and the resulting further work plan of this CRP are summarized in this report. The meeting presentations are available at: https://www-nds.iaea.org/index-meeting-crp/2RCM_FY/index.htm.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Evaluation of Use Cases and Types of Databases for Hosting Wind Power Data

The goal of the National Wind Power Production Data Dashboard project is to develop a publicly available platform to model, process, and share wind power with uncertainty quantification for the current and future onshore and offshore wind plants across the continental United States. As of 2021, more than 70,000 utility-scale wind turbines have been installed across the United States and this number is expected to grow in the next few years. A large-scale wind power production database is needed for stakeholders (policy makers, operators, and researchers) to access easily for their decision-making. Currently, meeting that need is a challenge. Most wind power operators and system operators focus on regions of their own interest, and the data are usually inaccessible to the public.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Perspectives on AI Architectures and Co-design for Earth System Predictability

Recently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) programs organized and held the Artificial Intelligence for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) workshop series. From this workshop, a critical conclusion that the DOE BER and ASCR community came to is the requirement to develop a new paradigm for Earth system predictability focused on enabling artificial intelligence (AI) across the field, laboratory, modeling, and analysis activities, called model experimentation (ModEx). BER’s ModEx is an iterative approach that enables process models to generate hypotheses. The developed hypotheses inform field and laboratory efforts to collect measurement and observation data, which are subsequently used to parameterize, drive, and test model (e.g., process based) predictions. A total of 17 technical sessions were held in this AI4ESP workshop series. This paper discusses the topic of the AI Architectures and Codesign session and associated outcomes. The AI Architectures and Codesign session included two invited talks, two plenary discussion panels, and three breakout rooms that covered specific topics, including 1) DOE high-performance computing (HPC) systems, 2) cloud HPC systems, and 3) edge computing and Internet of Things (IoT). We also provide forward-looking ideas and perspectives on potential research in this codesign area that can be achieved by synergies with the other 16 session topics. These ideas include topics such as 1) reimagining codesign, 2) data acquisition to distribution, 3) heterogeneous HPC solutions for integration of AI/ML and other data analytics like uncertainty quantification with Earth system modeling and simulation, and 4) AI-enabled sensor integration into Earth system measurements and observations. Such perspectives are a distinguishing aspect of this paper.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Review of Parameter Ranges for Uncertainty Estimation for Decomposing Carbon Fiber Epoxy Composites

Carbon fiber epoxy composites are increasingly used in systems requiring a material that is both strong and light weight, as in airplanes, cars, and pressure vessels. In fire environments, carbon fiber epoxy composites are a fuel source subject to oxidation. This literature review seeks to provide material properties as well as uncertainty bounds for those properties for computational models of decomposing carbon fiber epoxy composites. The goal is to guide analysts when measurements are lacking and increase credibility of uncertainty quantification ranges.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Towards reverse mode automatic differentiation of Kokkos-based codes

Derivative computation is a key component of optimization, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and the solving of nonlinear problems. Automatic differentiation (AD) is a powerful technique for evaluating such derivatives, and in recent years, has been integrated into programming environments such as Jax, PyTorch, and TensorFlow to support derivative computations needed for training of machine learning models, facilitating wide-spread use of these technologies. The C++ language has become the de facto standard for scientific computing due to numerous factors, yet language complexity has made the wide-spread adoption of AD technologies for C++ difficult, hampering the incorporation of powerful differentiable programming approaches into C++ scientific simulations. This is exacerbated by the increasing emergence of architectures, such as GPUs, with limited memory capabilities and requiring massive thread-level concurrency. C++ AD tools must effectively use these environments to bring novel scientific simulations to next-generation DOE experimental and observational facilities. In this project, we investigated source transformation-based automatic differentiation using LLVM compiler infrastructure to automatically generate portable and efficient gradient computations of Kokkos-based code. We have demonstrated that our proposed strategy is feasible by investigating the usage of a prototype LLVM-based source transformation tool to generate gradients of simple functions made of sequences of simple Kokkos parallel regions. Speedups of up to 500x compared to Sacado were observed on NVIDIA V100 GPU.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Artificial Intelligence-Enhanced, Multi-Level, Modular System Design

As Moore’s Law and Dennard Scaling come to an end, it is becoming increasingly important to develop non-von Neumann computing architectures that can perform low-power computing in the domains of scientific computing, artificial intelligence, embedded systems, and edge computing. Next-generation computing technologies, such as neuromorphic computing and quantum computing, have the potential to revolutionize computing. However, in order to make progress in these fields, it is necessary to fundamentally change the current computing paradigm by codesigning systems across all system level, from materials to software. Because skilled labor is limited in the field of next-generation computing, we are developing artificial intelligence-enhanced tools to automate the codesign and co-discovery of next-generation computers. Here, we develop a method called Modular and Multi-level MAchine Learning (MAMMAL) which is able to perform analog codesign and co-discovery across multiple system levels, spanning devices to circuits. We prototype MAMMAL by using it to design simple passive analog low-pass filters. We also explore methods to incorporate uncertainty quantification into MAMMAL and to accelerate MAMMAL by using emerging technologies, such as crossbar arrays. Ultimately, we believe that MAMMAL will enable rapid progress in developing next-generation computers by automating the codesign and co-discovery of electronic systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Nuclear Material Control & Accounting for Pebble Bed Reactors (FY 2023 Summary Report)

This report discusses the work done under the US Department of Energy NE-5 Advanced Reactor Safeguards and Security Program during FY 2023. It provides a summary of material control and accounting (MC&A) for pebble bed reactors (PBRs) and addresses some of the main challenges with current PBR MC&A approaches that will inform safeguards and security by design efforts. The efforts to date have focused on tristructural isotropic (TRISO) pebble fuel material accounting and control including working with partners in industry, loss and production of nuclear material as part of reactor operations, burnup modeling and measurements, uncertainty quantifications for such modeling and measurements, statistical approaches needed, and measurement methods. The unique fuel management and utilization in a PBR, where the fuel in spherical form is introduced and circulates through the reactor, poses special challenges for MC&A. This contrasts with traditional water-cooled reactors in which the fuel is contained in large assemblies and can be easily identified and counted. Even online fueled reactors, such as the CANDU reactors (none of which operate in the United States), are significantly different because the fuel is still contained in relatively large assemblies, is uniquely identified, and the number of assemblies that pass through the core on an annual basis is much fewer than the hundreds of thousands that circulate in a PBR, none of which are uniquely identified. Additionally, the nature of the TRISO fuel results in very low heavy metal loading with each pebble containing less than 10 g of uranium and on the order of less than 1 g of fissile material. This low fuel density and the robustness of the TRISO particles are major features of the TRISO fuel from a safety basis as each TRISO particle and pebble acts as a containment for the nuclear material and fission products during normal and accident conditions. This also results in very low plutonium loading per pebble during normal operations, which is on the order of 0.1 g at full burnup. A major feature of PBRs is that they will allow for significantly higher burnup, on the order of 160 GWd/THM compared to the burnup of traditional LWRs, which is on the order of 45 GWd/THM. This is achieved by monitoring the pebbles as they circulate through the reactor and allowing them to be reintroduced into the core until the desired burnup is achieved and they are removed from the reactor and enter the spent fuel storage areas.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis of Low-Temperature Resources for Sedimentary Basin Geothermal Play Types: An Example in the Denver Basin

This project is part of a nationwide effort to highlight the advantages of incorporating low-temperature geothermal resource evaluation into the implementation of combined heat and power (CHP), and geothermal direct use (GDU) technologies (e.g., space heating and/or cooling). The initiative aims to hasten the nation's decarbonization process by exploring the potential for using low-temperature geothermal resources (< 150 Degrees Celsius) in selected sedimentary basins that have several population centers. The Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) techniques were modified from earlier studies of sedimentary basin geothermal play types (SBGPTs) that assessed the viability of low-temperature resources. The decision-making process for leveraging low-temperature geothermal resources for GDU and CHP applications is complex and considers a variety of factors, including geological, economic, and risk criteria. This study covers workflows, relevant datasets, python code, and both common and composite maps used to create low-temperature geothermal resource favorability maps for the Denver Basin, which extends across Colorado, Nebraska, and Wyoming. The replication of these methodologies in other SBGPTs can evaluate potential for low-temperature resources. The proposed geothermal PFA approach for low-temperature geothermal resources includes: (1) identifying available relevant data and grouping data sets into PFA criteria (e.g., geological, economic, and risk criteria); (2) analyzing data gaps enable future focalized exploration; (3) performing uncertainty quantification; (4) weighting relevant data; (5) developing favorability and common risk maps for low-temperature geothermal resources to identify potential locations for more focused data collection. This project will facilitate future deployment of CHP and GDU by providing data, tools, and a workflow applicable to low-temperature geothermal resources in sedimentary basins.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Upscaling Methods Applied to a Fine-Scale Reservoir Model

This study was conducted as part of the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) project to evaluate how upscaling fine-scale simulation models to coarse-scale simulation models impacted the results. The focus was on the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) and its Morrow' B' Sandstone reservoir, specifically the west half of the field. Due to data limitations and the geologic characteristics of the surrounding area, the upscaling was limited to the west half of the FWU rather than a broader basinscale model. The primary aim was to explore how upscaling impacts numerical simulation models, particularly regarding CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and storage capacity predictions. Upscaling was necessary to reduce computational demands when transitioning from high-resolution geological models to coarser grids, as large-scale simulations with finer grids can be computationally prohibitive. This study expands on previous work by the SWP to understand how additional upscaling, applied to already fine-scale numerical simulation models, affects reservoir performance simulations (Ampomah, Balch, & Grigg, 2015). This is key to understanding how loss of resolution can affect coarsescale model results that may be used for large sensitivity analyses, uncertainty quantifications, and training data for machine learning applications.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Development of integrated neutronics and thermal analysis capabilities to support design and optimization of fusion engineering demonstration facility systems and blanket design (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

A fusion engineering demonstration facility would be the first step in the commercial fusion plant developmental pathway that aims to be an engineering demonstration of tritium self-sufficiency. One of the primary requirements for tritium self-sufficiency, as well as to ensure low plant tritium release to the external environment, is to minimize the tritium loss through the internal components, which requires accurate predictions of the tritium behavior for a wide range of materials and system conditions. This grant addressed the lack of a comprehensive model which accounts for particular conditions, such as the significance of temperature fields and neutronics information, and the systematic uncertainty quantification of associated material properties that impact tritium generation, utilization, and loss mechanisms in the blanket.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Development of integrated neutronics and thermal analysis capabilities to support design and optimization of fusion engineering demonstration facility systems and blanket design (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

A fusion engineering demonstration facility would be the first step in the commercial fusion plant developmental pathway that aims to be an engineering demonstration of tritium self- sufficiency. One of the primary requirements for tritium self-sufficiency, as well as to ensure low plant tritium release to the external environment, is to minimize the tritium loss through the internal components, which requires accurate predictions of the tritium behavior for a wide range of materials and system conditions. This grant addressed the lack of a comprehensive model which accounts for particular conditions, such as the significance of temperature fields and neutronics information, and the systematic uncertainty quantification of associated material properties that impact tritium generation, utilization, and loss mechanisms in the blanket.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Sierra/SD – Verification Test Manual – 5.22

Verification and validation (V&V) of scientific computing programs are important at Sandia National Labs due to the expanding role of computational simulation in managing the United States nuclear stockpile. The complexities of structural response calculations used to analyze physical problems, the varieties of codes applied to the calculations, and the importance of accurate predictions when assessing field conditions demand confidence in the consistency and accuracy of computer codes. Confidence in the accuracy of the predictions arising from computer simulations must ultimately be gained through verification and validation. The Sierra salinas structural dynamics analysis code, Sierra/SD, is used at the DOE Laboratories, and in several DOD projects. The roles of Sierra/SD in the qualification of weapon systems and components for normal and hostile environments throughout the Stockpile-to-Target Sequence include to, • Redesign weapon components. • Certify weapon components and systems for target environments such as hypersonic vehicles. • Certify that components will survive the thermal mechanical shock loads associated with hostile environments. • Evaluate current stockpile issues, including issues associated with uncertainty quantification. • Address many other problems that are encountered in stockpile management. The Sierra/SD verification plan is described, and an evolving set of key verification tests are described in detail. The verification tests ensure the correctness of the mathematics and numerical algorithms associated with functionality describing engineering phenomena. Development is in accordance with a set of tailored Software Quality Engineering (SQE) practices. SQE practices guide the overall verification and validation effort.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗