Why is it So Hot in Here? Exploring Population Trends in Spitzer Thermal Emission Observations of Hot Jupiters Using Planet-specific, Self-consistent Atmospheric Models
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Jayesh M. Goyal↗
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The hindcast skill of the CMIP ensembles for the surface air temperature trend
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Koichi Sakaguchi↗
Simulated Trends in Ionosphere‐Thermosphere Climate Due to Predicted Main Magnetic Field Changes From 2015 to 2065
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I. Cnossen↗
Climate drivers and human impacts shape 35‐year trends of coastal wetland health and composition in an urban region
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Cheryl L. Doughty↗
Validation of the Radiometric Stability of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder
It has been widely accepted that an infrared sounder in low polar orbit is capable of producing climate quality data, if the spectral brightness temperatures have instrumental trends of less than 10 mK/yr. Achieving measurement stability at this level is not only very demanding of the design of the instrument, it is also pushes the state of art of measuring on orbit what stability is actually achieved. We discuss this using Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) L1B data collected between 2002 and 2011. We compare the L1B brightness temperature observed in cloud filtered night tropical ocean spectra (obs) to the brightness temperature calculated based on the known surface emissivity, temperature and water vapor profiles from the ECMWF ReAnalysis (ERA) and the growth rates of CO2, N2O and Ozone. The trend in (obs-calc) is a powerful tool for the evaluation of the stability of the 2378 AIRS channels. We divided the channels into seven classes: All channels which sound in the stratosphere (at pressure levels below 150 hPa), 14 micron CO2 sounding, 4 micron CO2 P-branch sounding, 4 micron CO2 R-branch sounding, water vapor sounding, shortwave surface sounding and longwave surface sounding. The peak in the weighting function at 1050 hPa separates sounding and surface channels. The boundary between shortwave and longwave is 5 microns. Except for the stratosphere sounding channels, the remaining six groups have (obs-calc) trends of less than 20 mK/yr. The longwave surface channels have trends of 2 mK/yr, significantly less than the 8 mK/yr trend seem in the shortwave window channels. Based on the design of the instrument, trends within a group of channels should be the same. While the longwave and shortwave trends are less than the canonical 10 mK/yr, the larger trend in the shortwave channels could be an artifact of using the pre-launch determined calibration coefficients. This is currently under evaluation. The trend in (obs-calc) for the non-surface sounding channels, in particular for stratosphere sounding and upper tropospheric water channels, is dominated by artifacts created in calc, most likely due to changes in the ERA Ozone and water vapor. Based on this argument the best estimate of the trend for the channels within a channel group is given by the surface sensitive channels within the group. Based on this consideration we estimated the trend of all AIRS longwave channels as 2 mK/yr, while the shortwave channels have a trend of 8 mK/yr.
CO2↗
Experimental and Petrological Constraints on Lunar Differentiation from the Apollo 15 Green Picritic Glasses
Phase equilibrium experiments on the most magnesian Apollo 15C green picritic glass composition indicate a multiple saturation point with olivine and orthopyroxene at 1520 C and 1.3 GPa (about 260 km depth in the moon). This composition has the highest Mg# of any lunar picritic glass and the shallowest multiple saturation point. Experiments on an Apollo 15A composition indicate a multiple saturation point with olivine and orthopyroxene at 1520 C and 2.2 GPa (about 440 km depth in the moon). The importance of the distinctive compositional trends of the Apollo 15 groups A, B, and C picritic glasses merits the reanalysis of NASA slide 15426,72 with modern electron microprobe techniques. We confirm the compositional trends reported by Delano (1979, 1986) in the major element oxides SiO2, TiO2, Al2O3, Cr2O3, FeO, MnO, MgO, and CaO, and we also obtained data for the trace elements P2O5, K2O, Na2O, NiO, S, Cu, Cl, Zn, and F. Petrogenetic modeling demonstrates that the Apollo 15 A-B-C glass trends could not have been formed by fractional crystallization or any continuous assimilation/fractional crystallization (AFC) process. The B and C glass compositional trends could not have been formed by batch or incremental melting of an olivine + orthopyroxene source or any other homogeneous source, though the A glasses may have been formed by congruent melting over a small pressure range at depth. The B compositional trend is well modeled by starting with an intermediate A composition and assimilating a shallower, melted cumulate, and the C compositional trend is well modeled by a second assimilation event. The assimilation process envisioned is one in which heat and mass transfer were separated in space and time. In an initial intrusive event, a picritic magma crystallized and provided heat to melt magma ocean cumulates. In a later replenishment event, the picritic magma incrementally mixed with the melted cumulate (creating the compositional trends in the green glass data set), ascended to the lunar surface, and erupted as a fire fountain. A barometer created from multiple saturation points provides a depth estimate of other glasses in the A-B-C trend and of the depths of assimilation. This barometer demonstrates that the Apollo 15 A-B-C trend originated over a depth range of approx.460 km to approx.260 km within the moon.
Elkins-Tanton, Linda T.↗
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Melt Onset, Freeze-Up, and Melt Season Length
In order to explore changes and trends in the timing of Arctic sea ice melt onset and freeze-up and therefore melt season length, we developed a method that obtains this information directly from satellite passive microwave data, creating a consistent data set from 1979 through present. We furthermore distinguish between early melt (the first day of the year when melt is detected) and the first day of continuous melt. A similar distinction is made for the freeze-up. Using this method we analyze trends in melt onset and freeze-up for 10 different Arctic regions. In all regions except for the Sea of Okhotsk, which shows a very slight and statistically insignificant positive trend (O.4 days/decade), trends in melt onset are negative, i.e. towards earlier melt. The trends range from -1.0day/decade for the Bering Sea to -7.3 days/decade for the East Greenland Sea. Except for the Sea of Okhotsk all areas also show a trend towards later autumn freeze onset. The Chukchi/Beaufort Seas and Laptev/East Siberian Seas observe the strongest trends with 7 days/decade. For the entire Arctic, the melt season length has increased by about 20 days over the last 30 years. Largest trends of over 1O days/decade are seen for Hudson Bay, the East Greenland Sea the Laptev/East Siberian Seas, and the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas. Those trends are statistically significant a1 the 99% level.
Markus, Thorsten↗
Satellite-Based Evidence for Shrub and Graminoid Tundra Expansion in Northern Quebec from 1986-2010
Global vegetation models predict rapid poleward migration of tundra and boreal forest vegetation in response to climate warming. Local plot and air-photo studies have documented recent changes in high-latitude vegetation composition and structure, consistent with warming trends. To bridge these two scales of inference, we analyzed a 24-year (1986-2010) Landsat time series in a latitudinal transect across the boreal forest-tundra biome boundary in northern Quebec province, Canada. This region has experienced rapid warming during both winter and summer months during the last forty years. Using a per-pixel (30 m) trend analysis, 30% of the observable (cloud-free) land area experienced a significant (p < 0.05) positive trend in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, greening trends were not evenly split among cover types. Low shrub and graminoid tundra contributed preferentially to the greening trend, while forested areas were less likely to show significant trends in NDVI. These trends reflect increasing leaf area, rather than an increase in growing season length, because Landsat data were restricted to peak-summer conditions. The average NDVI trend (0.007/yr) corresponds to a leaf-area index (LAI) increase of ~0.6 based on the regional relationship between LAI and NDVI from the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Across the entire transect, the area-averaged LAI increase was ~0.2 during 1986-2010. A higher area-averaged LAI change (~0.3) within the shrub-tundra portion of the transect represents a 20-60% relative increase in LAI during the last two decades. Our Landsat-based analysis subdivides the overall high-latitude greening trend into changes in peak-summer greenness by cover type. Different responses within and among shrub, graminoid, and tree-dominated cover types in this study indicate important fine-scale heterogeneity in vegetation growth. Although our findings are consistent with community shifts in low-biomass vegetation types over multi-decadal time scales, the response in tundra and forest ecosystems to recent warming was not uniform.
McManus, K. M.↗
Global Precipitation Means and Variations with the New Version of GPCP
Knowledge of global precipitation means, patterns and variations is essential for understanding the global water cycle. The observation-based global analysis of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has been a key input to many such studies, including those related to means of the global (and regional) water and energy cycles. A new version (Version 3.1) of the GPCP monthly analysis is now available (1983-2019), with finer spatial resolution (0.5º latitude/longitude), updated satellite algorithms, latest gauge analysis over land from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC), and with ocean climatologies adjusted using information from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission and CloudSat. The presentation will give key findings from the new analysis, compare with the previous version, link to studies of the water cycle and compare to CMIP6 climate model results. The GPCP Monthly V3.1 analysis uses a Tropical Composite Climatology (TCC) using 22 years (1998-2019) of TRMM and GPM-based surface precipitation estimates from passive microwave, radar and combined passive microwave and radar observations to adjust the long-term mean values in the tropics over ocean. At higher latitudes over ocean climatological values of merged CloudSat and GPM combined passive microwave and radar surface precipitation estimates are used. The result of the new algorithms and procedures is an ocean mean value 60º N to 60º S of 3.2 mm/d, an increase of 7% from the older V2.3. Over land the gauge analysis (from GPCC in Germany), combined with satellite estimates results in a small decrease (~ 0.5%) from the previous version, giving a total global precipitation mean of 2.81 mm/d for V3.1, an increase of 4.5%. Variations from inter-annual to trend scales over most of the ocean are driven by the Colorado State University (CSU) Goddard Profiling (GPROF) algorithm applied to SSMI/SSMIS satellite data. The new GPCP version retains a near zero trend of global precipitation, with significant positive trends in the deep tropics along the Pacific ITCZ and elsewhere, countered by middle latitude decreases, very similar to the previous version of the GPCP Monthly analysis. The pattern of trends is similar to that of AMIP climate model results, driven by observed SSTs for the period in question, but very different from results for “free-running” CMIP historical ensembles, likely due in part to the relatively short comparison period and effects of inter-decadal variations in the GPCP and AMIP results that are not in the “history” models. Interannual variations are also nearly the same in the new version, but with finer detail, although ENSO variations over the ocean have slightly larger amplitude than before, an effect likely related to the change in ocean satellite algorithm used in Version 3. For precipitation intensity (percentiles) at the monthly scale, especially in the tropics, GPCP shows a positive trend for the upper one third of the percentiles (Pct ≥ 70th) and a much weaker positive trend for the lowest percentiles (Pct ≤ 10th), while negative trends appear for the middle one-half percentiles (20th-65th). AMIP results agree with those from the GPCP in terms of the sign of the changes/trends for high and intermediate percentiles. The CMIP historical results also agree in the sign of the trends, but the trends are weaker. Comparisons with other types of CMIP historical simulations including the GHG-only, aerosol-only, and nature-only runs suggest that the observed changes/trends in precipitation amount and intensity during the GPCP period are dominated by a combination of the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and anthropogenic GHG-related surface warming.
Robert Adler↗
Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity
In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on constituent tracers predicted at the model time step. This diagnostic is compared to a simplified traditional calculation of cycling rate, based on monthly averages of precipitation and total water content. The mean sensitivity of both diagnostics to variations in climate forcing is comparable. However, the new diagnostic produces systematically larger values and more variability than the traditional average approach. Climate simulations were performed using SSTs of the early (1902-1921) and late (1979- 1998) twentieth century along with the appropriate C02 forcing. In general, the increase of global precipitation with the increases in SST that occurred between the early and late twentieth century is small. However, an increase of atmospheric temperature leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water. As a result, the residence time of water in the atmosphere increased, indicating a reduction of the global cycling rate. This result was explored further using a number of 50-year climate simulations from different models forced with observed SST. The anomalies and trends in the cycling rate and hydrologic variables of different GCMs are remarkably similar. The global annual anomalies of precipitation show a significant upward trend related to the upward trend of surface temperature, during the latter half of the twentieth century. While this implies an increase in the hydrologic cycle intensity, a concomitant increase of total precipitable water again leads to a decrease in the calculated global cycling rate. An analysis of the land/sea differences shows that the simulated precipitation over land has a decreasing trend while the oceanic precipitation has an upward trend consistent with previous studies and the available observations. The decreasing continental trend in precipitation is located primarily over tropical land regions, with some other regions, such as North America experiencing an increasing trend. Precipitation trends are diagnosed further using the water tracers to delineate the precipitation that occurs because of continental evaporation, as opposed to oceanic evaporation. These diagnostics show that over global land areas, the recycling of continental moisture is decreasing in time. However, the recycling changes are not spatially uniform so that some regions, most notably over the United States, experience continental recycling of water that increases in time.
Bosilovich, Michael G.↗
CALIPSO Mission Status Update: Payload Status
The CALIPSO mission payload status update is presented. The contents include: 1) Wide Field Camera Overview; 2) WFC Temperatures; 3) WFC Voltages; 4) Imaging Infrared Radiometer (IIR) Health; 5) IIR Voltages; 6) Payload Control (PLC) Voltages; 7) PLC Temperatures; 8) Low Voltage Power Supply (LVPS) (CALOPS0025N); 9) PLC Radiation Effects; 10) SDS Status (CALOPS0020N); 11) CALIOP LIDAR; 12) Laser Energy Trends; 13) Laser Energy Zoom; 14) Laser Management Approach; 15) Green / Red Ratio; 16) Pedestal @ SHG Temperature Trends; 17) LOM Heater Duty Cycle Trends; 18) LOM Pressure Trends; 19) Boresight Trend; 20) 1064 Dark Noise Trend; 21) 532 SNR Trend; 22) Spike Trends; 23) LIDAR Highlights; 24) Backup Laser Status; and 25) Future Plans.
Verhappen, Ron↗
Methane as a Diagnostic Tracer of Changes in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation of the Stratosphere
This study makes use of time series of methane (CH4/ data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) to detect whether there were any statistically significant changes of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) within the stratosphere during 1992-2005. The HALOE CH4 profiles are in terms of mixing ratio versus pressure altitude and are binned into latitude zones within the Southern Hemisphere and the Northern Hemisphere. Their separate time series are then analyzed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques. The CH4 trend terms for the Northern Hemisphere are significant and positive at 10 N from 50 to 7 hPa and larger than the tropospheric CH4 trends of about 3%decade(exp -1) from 20 to 7 hPa. At 60 N the trends are clearly negative from 20 to 7 hPa. Their combined trends indicate an acceleration of the BDC in the middle stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere during those years, most likely due to changes from the effects of wave activity. No similar significant BDC acceleration is found for the Southern Hemisphere. Trends from HALOE H2O are analyzed for consistency. Their mutual trends with CH4 are anti-correlated qualitatively in the middle and upper stratosphere, where CH4 is chemically oxidized to H2O. Conversely, their mutual trends in the lower stratosphere are dominated by their trends upon entry to the tropical stratosphere. Time series residuals for CH4 in the lower mesosphere also exhibit structures that are anti-correlated in some instances with those of the tracer-like species HCl. Their occasional aperiodic structures indicate the effects of transport following episodic, wintertime wave activity. It is concluded that observed multi-year, zonally averaged distributions of CH4 can be used to diagnose major instances of wave-induced transport in the middle atmosphere and to detect changes in the stratospheric BDC.
Remsberg, E. E.↗
Re-Greening Sahel: 30 Years of Remote Sensing Data and Field Observations (Mali, Niger)
Desertification of the Sahel region has been debated for decades, while the concept of a "re-greening" Sahel appeared with satellite remote sensing data that allowed vegetation monitoring across wide regions and over increasingly long series of years (nowadays 30 years with the GIMMS-3g dataset). However, the scarcity of long-term field observations of vegetation in the Sahel prevents ground validation and deeper analysis of such trends. After assessing the consistency of the new GIMMS-3g NDVI product by comparison to three other AVHRR-NDVI datasets and MODIS NDVI, regional GIMMS-3g NDVI trends over 1981-2011 are analyzed. Trends are found positive and statistically significant almost everywhere in Sahel over the 1981-2011 period. Long-term field observations of the aboveground herbaceous layer mass have been collected within the Gourma region in Mali (1984-2011) and within the Fakara region in western Niger (1994-2011). These observations sample ecosystem and soil diversity, thus enabling estimation of averaged values representative of the Gourma and Fakara. NDVI measurements are found in good agreement with field observations, both over the Gourma and Fakara regions where re-greening and negative trends are observed respectively. A linear regression analysis performed between spatially averaged seasonal NDVI and a weighted average of field measurements explains 59% of the variability for the Gourma region over 1984-2011, and 38% for the Fakara region over 1994-2011. In the Gourma, which is a pastoral region, the re-greening trend is mainly observed over sandy soils, and attests for the ecosystem's resilience to the 1980s' drought, able to react to the more favorable rainfall of the 1990s and 2000s. However, contrasted changes in the landscape's functioning have occurred locally. An increase in erosion and run-off processes in association with decreasing or stable vegetation cover was observed over shallow soils, which occupy 30% of the area. In the agro-pastoral Fakara, the decreasing trends observed both from satellite NDVI and field assessments of herbaceous mass are hardly explained by rainfall. These results give confidence in the dominant positive trends in Sahelian greenness, but indicate that degradation trends can also be observed, both in situ and from satellite time series.
Sahel↗
Identification of geostructures of continental crust, particularly as they relate to mineral-resource evaluation
The authors have identified the following significant results. As a precursor to the ERTS-1 investigation, the spatial relationship of geostructures seen on Nimbus IDCS photographs to the distribution of mineralized areas in Alaska and western Canada was analyzed to determine the possible metallogenic significance of the geostructures. In Canada, mercury and porphyry molybdenum deposits are closely associated with strong northwest-trending fault systems; the development of mineralized regions seems related to major crustal zones or fractures trending southwestward across the Cordillera from the Precambrian shield. In Alaska, comparison of the northeast- and northwest-trending set of possible crustal structures shown on the Nimbus photo, with the distribution of known mineral deposits suggests a similar relationship. The mineralized region of massive sulfides in Prince William Sound and upper Copper River areas and of porphyry coppers in the Nabesna area forms a broad northeast-trending belt possibly related to the Minto Arch on the Shield. The belt of metalliferous deposits in the western Alaska Range follows a comparable northeast trend. Mercury deposits, suggested by many to be fault-controlled, together with most tin and tungsten deposits, occupy a northeast-trending belt between the Bristol Bay-Mackenzie Bay linear and extensions of a linear along the lower Yukon River. This belt intersects the northwest-trending Canadian belt of similar deposits in the Fairbanks area.
Gryc, G.↗
Estimates of Ice Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry: Past and Future
A major uncertainty in predicting sea level rise is the sensitivity of ice sheet mass balance to climate change, as well as the uncertainty in present mass balance. Since the annual water exchange is about 8 mm of global sea level equivalent, the 20% uncertainty in current mass balance corresponds to 1.6 mm/yr in sea level change. Furthermore, estimates of the sensitivity of the mass balance to temperature change range from perhaps as much as - 10% to + 10% per K. A principal purpose of obtaining ice sheet elevation changes from satellite altimetry has been estimation of the current ice sheet mass balance. Limited information on ice sheet elevation change and their implications about mass balance have been reported by several investigators from radar altimetry (Seasat, Geosat, ERS-1&2). Analysis of ERS-1&2 data over Greenland for 7 years from 1992 to 1999 shows mixed patterns of ice elevation increases and decreases that are significant in terms of regional-scale mass balances. Observed seasonal and interannual variations in ice surface elevation are larger than previously expected because of seasonal and interannUal variations in precipitation, melting, and firn compaction. In the accumulation zone, the variations in firn compaction are modeled as a function of temperature leaving variations in precipitation and the mass balance trend. Significant interannual variations in elevation in some locations, in particular the difference in trends from 1992 to 1995 compared to 1995 to 1999, can be explained by changes in precipitation over Greenland. Over the 7 years, trends in elevation are mostly positive at higher elevations and negative at lower elevations. In addition, trends for the winter seasons (from a trend analysis through the average winter elevations) are more positive than the corresponding trends for the summer. At lower elevations, the 7-year trends in some locations are strongly negative for summer and near zero or slightly positive for winter. These observations also demonstrate the potential for relating the variability in mass balance to changes in precipitation, temperature, and melting. Beginning in January 2002, NASA's ICESat laser altimeter mission will provide significantly better elevation accuracy and spatial coverage to 86E latitude and to the margins of the ice sheets.
Zwally, H. Jay↗
Assessment of SAGE Version 6.1 Ozone Data Quality
The SAGE-II V6.1 ozone retrievals are shown to be of better precision at all levels and to be much more accurate than previous retrievals in the lower stratosphere below 20 km altitude. A filtering procedure for removing anomalous ozone profiles associated with volcanic aerosol/cloud effects and other identified artifacts in V6.1 ozone is described. The agreement between SAGE and ozonesondes in the mean is shown to be approximately 10% down to the tropopause. Relative to the sondes SAGE tends to slightly overestimate ozone (less than 5%) between 15 and 20 km altitude, and systematically underestimates ozone in the troposphere by approximately 30% in the regions between 8 km altitude and 2 km below the tropopause. The precisions (random errors) of SAGE ozone retrievals above 25 km altitude are estimated to be 4% or better; they are a factor of ten worse below 16 km altitude. Linear trends in the differences between coincident SAGE and ozonesondes measurement are generally less than 0.3 %/year and not significantly different from zero in 95% confidence intervals. Compared to V5.96 retrievals, ozone trend differences between 20 and 50 km altitude are approximately 0. 1 %/year, below 20 km altitude the SAGE II trends are more positive by approximately 0.2 %/year. For the 1984-1999 period the SAGE-II shows a localized ozone loss of -0.4(+/- 0.25) %/year (2gigma) in the tropics at 20 km altitude. In the lower stratosphere between 16 and 22 km altitudes, the SAGE shows significant ozone losses in the mid-latitudes in both Hemispheres during the 1979-1999 periods. The ozone trends range from -0.24(+/- 0.18) to -0.77(+/- 0.46) (2sigma)%/year. However in the 1984-1999 period, the downward trends are smaller (-0.07 to - 0.25 %/year) in this altitude range, and the trends in the integrated column from 12 to 17 km altitude in mid-latitudes (35 deg - 60 deg) are not significantly different from zero (0.1 +?- 0.6 (2sigma)%/year). Averaged over the tropics (20 deg S to 20 deg N) the ozone column above 15 km altitude exhibit a trend of -0.12 +/- 0.08 (2sigma)%/year.
Wang, Hsiang J.↗
Use of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Retrievals to Evaluate Model Estimates by the Australian Water Resources Assessment System
Terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimates retrievals from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission were compared to TWS modeled by the Australian Water Resources Assessment (AWRA) system. The aim was to test whether differences could be attributed and used to identify model deficiencies. Data for 2003 2010 were decomposed into the seasonal cycle, linear trends and the remaining de-trended anomalies before comparing. AWRA tended to have smaller seasonal amplitude than GRACE. GRACE showed a strong (greater than 15 millimeter per year) drying trend in northwest Australia that was associated with a preceding period of unusually wet conditions, whereas weaker drying trends in the southern Murray Basin and southwest Western Australia were associated with relatively dry conditions. AWRA estimated trends were less negative for these regions, while a more positive trend was estimated for areas affected by cyclone Charlotte in 2009. For 2003-2009, a decrease of 7-8 millimeter per year (50-60 cubic kilometers per year) was estimated from GRACE, enough to explain 6-7% of the contemporary rate of global sea level rise. This trend was not reproduced by the model. Agreement between model and data suggested that the GRACE retrieval error estimates are biased high. A scaling coefficient applied to GRACE TWS to reduce the effect of signal leakage appeared to degrade quantitative agreement for some regions. Model aspects identified for improvement included a need for better estimation of rainfall in northwest Australia, and more sophisticated treatment of diffuse groundwater discharge processes and surface-groundwater connectivity for some regions.
van Dijk, A. I. J. M.↗
Sulfate Aerosol Control of Tropical Atlantic Climate over the Twentieth Century
The tropical Atlantic interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperature significantly influences the rainfall climate of the tropical Atlantic sector, including droughts over West Africa and Northeast Brazil. This gradient exhibits a secular trend from the beginning of the twentieth century until the 1980s, with stronger warming in the south relative to the north. This trend behavior is on top of a multi-decadal variation associated with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. A similar long-term forced trend is found in a multimodel ensemble of forced twentieth-century climate simulations. Through examining the distribution of the trend slopes in the multimodel twentieth-century and preindustrial models, the authors conclude that the observed trend in the gradient is unlikely to arise purely from natural variations; this study suggests that at least half the observed trend is a forced response to twentieth-century climate forcings. Further analysis using twentieth-century single-forcing runs indicates that sulfate aerosol forcing is the predominant cause of the multimodel trend. The authors conclude that anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions, originating predominantly from the Northern Hemisphere, may have significantly altered the tropical Atlantic rainfall climate over the twentieth century
Chang, C.-Y.↗