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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Comparison of temporal resolution selection approaches in energy systems models

Capacity expansion models for the power sector are used to project future decisions over the coming decades by simulating investment and operation decisions for the use of electricity. Due to model performance constraints, these models typically do not explicitly simulate every hour within a year, but instead simulate representative time segments (groups of hours). This paper evaluates different approaches for selecting time segments across three methods: sequential, categorical, and clustering, across a wide range of time-segment quantities, for a total of 204 temporal profiles. To measure the performance of each profile's ability to accurately represent data, the root-mean-square-error of each profile's time segments are compared to the data's original hourly data. The temporal alignment across regions is also measured (i.e., how often windy days align across regions). Different spatial resolutions were applied for a subset of the temporal selection methods to investigate the impact spatial resolution has on performance. This paper provides a framework for measuring the value of different temporal selection methods and of adding more granular data to energy system models. Overall, multi-criteria clustering yields the lowest root-mean-square-error across all datasets evaluated and provides a holistic view of the intertwined relationships between renewable generation and electricity demand.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Beyond the Stokes approximation: shallow visco-elastic ice-sheet models

Abstract The hypothesis that ice-sheet evolution is only controlled by the long-term non-Newtonian viscous behavior of ice has been challenged by observations indicating that effects like brittle failure, stick-slip sliding, tides and wave action may affect ice-sheet evolution on sub-daily timescales. Over these timescales, the quasi-static-creep approximation is no longer appropriate and elastic effects become important. Simulating elastic effects in ice-sheet models over relevant timescales, however, remains challenging. Here, we show that by including a visco-elastic rheology and reintroducing the oft neglected acceleration term back into the ice-sheet stress balance, we can create a visco-elastic system where the velocity is locally determined and information propagates at the elastic wave speed. Crucially, the elastic wave speed can be treated like an adjustable parameter and set to any value to reproduce a range of phenomena, provided the wave speed is large compared to the viscous velocity. We illustrate the system using three examples. The first two examples demonstrate that the system converges to the steady-state viscous and elastic limits. The third example examines ice-shelf rifting and iceberg calving. This final example hints at the utility of the visco-elastic formulation in treating both long-term evolution and short-term environmental effects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Randomization-Based, Zero-Trust Cyberattack Detection Method for Hierarchical Systems

This paper demonstrates a novel randomization-based approach for verifying power system control signals with application to detecting cyberattacks. We consider fully connected hierarchical systems containing multiple local agents and a global "trust" agent. The global agent uses a time-varying randomized assignment scheme to identify corrupt network links based on principles of zero trust and majority rule. To evaluate the performance of this detection approach, we implement our algorithm in MATLAB and run it against nearly 43 million unique attack scenarios spanning a range of system sizes. For each scenario, the algorithm determines whether the identified corruptions satisfy a set of validity constraints reflecting network topology and uses that result to say whether the recovered state value for one or more local agents is malicious. We compare the algorithm's determination to the true state of the system to assess performance and find that classification accuracy converges to 100% as system size increases, suggesting that the validity constraints become more difficult to satisfy for larger systems. We further explore the scenarios that evade detection to understand practical implications for employing this detection approach.

cybersecurity↗

Online PMU Missing Value Replacement Via Event-Participation Decomposition

We introduce a new method for online Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) missing value replacement. Our approach allows us to decompose PMU event responses into a non-dynamic component (denoted the participation factor) that can be inferred directly from the past and a dynamic component that can be inferred directly from all other PMUs (denoted the event strength). When missing values occur, we can use these two components, which do not rely on the missing index, to estimate the correct value. The method is extremely fast and can easily be used for online applications. Furthermore, extensive testing on real power system event data reveals that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of Mean Absolute Percent Errors (MAPEs) for PMU data dropped during event periods. Here, the method also yields an interpretable and simplified view of events for further analysis and applications. The method relies only on PMU data and does not take outside information such as network topology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Measuring during a fault

Measuring instruments used in power systems will continue to report their results, even when there is a fault in the system. At such a time, the quality of the measurement is decreased, and the uncertainty of the value is increased. The uncertainty should be reported, but it rarely is. While power engineers have seemingly come to trust the results of such measurements without an uncertainty statement, in any case there is a fundamental problem with quantifying the uncertainty. The problem is not limited to power systems, though faults make it more evident. Uncertainty of the kind caused by a faulted power system can be considered definitional uncertainty, and that is normally evaluated statistically. It is not possible to perform statistics unless the measurement can be repeated at least a few times, and that is not an option outside the laboratory. This paper examines the matter from the viewpoint of measurement theory, and suggests a direction for some future work.

measurement, uncertainty, goodness of fit, degrees↗

A Multi-Harmonic System Identification Method for Internal Circuit Element Monitoring

Many critical infrastructures depend on the reliability of electronic circuits, whose health depends on the values of internal circuit elements that degrade over time. It is therefore important to estimate the values of internal circuit elements from external measurements and monitor them for changes. The challenge to doing so is that, typically, the internal voltages and currents are not accessible for measurement. Prior work on internal circuit element monitoring uses data obtained from sensors placed inside the circuit or requires additional circuitry to be added to the given system, both of which are undesirable. We propose a new multi-harmonic frequency-domain based system identification method that is non-intrusive. It exploits the latent non-idealities already present in the system, specifically harmonics in the measured input and output signals. We show how sensitivity analysis can be used to both assess the accuracy of the method as well as to optimize the choice of harmonics to use. We use as a motivation and illustrative example the problem of determining the equivalent series resistance and capacitance in a class of dc-link capacitance circuits in Adjustable Speed Drives. We assess the performance of this method using simulations, and establish its validity by experimental results.

Deshpande, Ankit Vivek↗

(U) A Linear Response Model Predicts Reactivity From a Density Profile

We tested the ability to predict the system reactivity, described by alpha, given a density profile using a simple linear system response. We generated a suite of 1-dimensional density profiles that consisted of nominal density, a discontinuity, and a decay. These profiles were prescribed a functional form and the mass was conserved in all cases. From these density profiles, we calculated the alpha value of the 3-dimensional system.We calculated a linear response function given a training set of the 1-dimensional density profiles, and the system reactivity described by alpha. We tested the robustness of the response function using the remaining test data. Our results showed very good agreement between the predicted and calculated test values, where the distribution of alpha differences was centered about zero and had a standard deviation of 0.005 gens/shake. The predicted and calculated alpha values did not significantly differ (t=-0.0009 p<0.99). We used Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) to reduce the matrix rank by retaining95% of the cumulative singular value contributions. This reduced the matrix rank by 91.7%. We generated the linear response matrix and calculated the difference between the predicted and calculated alpha values. Using the reduced order matrix, we showed good agreement between the predicted and calculated alpha values where the distribution of differences was centered near zero, the standard deviation was 0.006 gens/shake, and the statistical t-test showed good agreement (t=0.02, p<0.98). These results show a linear relationship between a series of 1-dimensional density profiles,where the mass was conserved, and the system reactivity. The next steps of this work will be to investigate the linear response using 2-dimensional density profiles.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Electricity Markets and Long-Duration Energy Storage: A Survey of Grid Services and Revenue Streams

Purpose of Review Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) is increasingly viewed as a potential resource for providing grid services that enhance the stability and flexibility of electricity systems. While some LDES services are integrated into existing market frameworks, traditional mechanisms may not fully account for their operational characteristics, potentially leading to undervaluation. Within this context, this paper reviews the literature and industry practices to assess potential grid services for LDES, evaluates existing compensation mechanisms, and identifies challenges to full market integration. Recent Findings We first review existing literature and identify key grid services unique to LDES, including enhancing grid resilience during extreme weather events, enabling long-term energy shifting, and providing flexible and firm energy in systems with limited dispatchable resources. Here, we also review how LDES services are compensated in current market frameworks and the challenges associated with the full realization of LDES values. Additionally, we summarize market mechanisms for storage technologies across U.S. wholesale markets. We find that some markets are adjusting incentive structures, such as incorporating storage duration in capacity accreditation, to better align with system needs and LDES contributions to the grid. However, further refinements in capacity remuneration and dispatch timeframes may be needed for more effective realization of LDES value. Summary This review evaluates potential grid services for LDES, examines existing compensation mechanisms for LDES technologies, and identifies gaps between these mechanisms and LDES operational characteristics. The review concludes by outlining potential market enhancements for more effective LDES integration and articulating additional research needs to support its efficient participation in future power systems.

Flexible resources↗

Commercialization of Distribution System Load Modeling Tool for Improved DER Interconnection Studies

Residential and commercial buildings have huge potential to contribute value to improve grid resilience by participating grid services. To reveal the significant value, it is critical to estimate the grid service capability from these buildings. Unlike the large-scale distributed energy resources such as wind and solar farms, those buildings need to participate grid services in aggregation, not by individual. Therefore, it is important to appropriately group buildings for aggregation. The load profiles in the same group will have similar characteristics at the same time step, so grid operators can send the grid service signal to the customer group with a higher chance to respond at that time step. In this paper, we develop a load profile clustering method to classify the building-level load profiles for grid service capability estimation. In our two-step clustering approach, we first calculate the total load consumption for each building, clustering the load profiles based on energy consumption level. Then, we further cluster the load profiles in each energy cluster based on the load shape. The parameter selection for each clustering step is discussed. The proposed method is applied on actual building-level load profiles, and the results have proved the effectiveness of this method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Timed to save: the added value of accounting for hourly incidence of electricity savings from residential space-conditioning measures

Abstract Previous research has recognized that the value of measures that reduce electricity usage depends upon the timing of the savings generated, but the lack of hourly savings shapes has limited the demonstration of this concept. We develop empirical hourly savings shapes for residential space-conditioning measures from nearly 18,000 efficiency projects in California and show how they combine with the diurnal and seasonal variation in electricity system costs. We find that these measures (cooling replacements; windows, doors, and skylights; and other envelope measures) tend to save electricity when system costs are highest and that the hourly savings account for 1.4–1.5 times as much value as non-time-sensitive estimates of efficiency would predict. We present these impact multipliers for each measure to quantify the additional value revealed by the time-sensitive approach. We show that this additional value is similar in an evolving electricity grid with storage, rather than natural gas generation, as the marginal resource.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Foam Fracturing Study for Stimulation Development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems

The large thermal gradients and high subsurface temperatures of the western region of the U.S. hold great potential for the implementation of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). The development of these potential EGS resources requires stimulation of the reservoir to enhance permeability and it has been widely reported that a substantial amount of water will be required should conventional hydraulic stimulation be used. This presents a huge challenge and a high risk to the geothermal development because the water stress1 in these areas is already high or extremely high. The use of foam, a gas/liquid mixture predominantly composed of gas, in fracturing is considered and explored in this project as a potential approach to address water concerns with hydraulic stimulation in the development of EGS. This project, led by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in collaboration with Temple University, was awarded in an open lab call in 2018, and was part of the DOE GTO waterless stimulation initiative. The goal of the project was to demonstrate the feasibility of foam fracturing for EGS development through two primary tasks: Task 1: Laboratory study of the effectiveness of foam fracturing for representative geological materials, including cyclic pressurization using foam (led by ORNL) and Task 2: High temperature foam material selection and characterization (led by Temple University). In FY19, ORNL finished the critical review on serval issues associated with foam fracturing and the implementation of the proposed tasks in a lab study (Wang, et al., 2019), and completed the foam fracturing testing using cement as a model material (Wang, et al, 2020a). The work at ORNL was geared up to develop a brand-new foam testing system in FY20. The purchase of main components for the new system was finished in the first half of the FY20. The assembly of the foam testing system and foam fracturing testing were completed in the second half of the FY20 (Wang, et al., 2021a). Task 1 required the development of a test system which can be used to perform hydraulic fracturing of geological specimens with both water and foamed liquids at pressure up to 6,000 psi (41.4 MPa). The system possesses several capabilities that conventional injection systems lack for hydraulic fracturing. In addition to its ability to generate foam with controlled quality, it is capable of cycling pressure levels between specified values up to frequencies of 50 Hz. The latter capability was developed to evaluate the hypothesis that cyclic loading of samples would produce enhanced fracturing. The system consists of two sections: one for foam generation and another for foam injection. The foam is generated through separate control and pressurization of liquid and gas phases with controlled flow rates. The injection section is equipped with a low-flow Coriolis flow that monitors the density of foam to ensure the injection is in the range of target foam quality2. Experimental results of foam fracturing are reported for cylindrical granite specimens using water and aqueous N2 foam as the fracturing fluids. All experiments were performed for unconfined conditions. The effects of injection mode (i.e., monotonic vs cyclic pressurization) on breakdown pressure and failure response sample were investigated using water alone as a fracturing fluid and foams with a range of compositions. It was found that in the case of monotonic injection, the breakdown pressure of granite specimens tended to be slightly higher when fracturing with foam. Additionally, with a foam quality of 90%, the water use can be reduced by 50 to 84%, depending on hole size. On the other hand, it was observed that the breakdown pressure can be brought down to 70% of the monotonic breakdown pressure by using low cycle fatigue. Finally, discussions are presented regarding injectivity and water use reduction.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Advancing Concentrating Solar Thermal Modeling Using System Advisor Model (SAM)

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technologies play a critical role in enabling dispatchable power and high-temperature industrial heat applications. Accurate and flexible modeling tools are essential for evaluating system performance, guiding technology research and development, and informing investment decisions. The National Laboratory of the Rockies's System Advisor Model (SAM) is a widely used techno-economic simulation platform for CST systems, providing detailed performance and financial modeling capabilities for multiple CST system configurations. SAM integrates physics-based performance models with financial analysis to simulate the behavior of complex energy systems under realistic operating conditions. For CST technologies (including tower, parabolic trough, and linear Fresnel), SAM enables hourly simulations using site-specific weather data that ensure feasible operating conditions and convergence of mass and energy between core system components (i.e., solar field, receiver, thermal energy storage, and power cycle). These capabilities allow researchers and developers to evaluate annual energy production, capacity factors, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), and system dispatch strategies. A key advantage of SAM lies in its flexibility for parametric analysis and large-scale computational studies. Users can vary system design parameters such as heliostat field layout, receiver dimensions, thermal energy storage capacity, power block sizing, and installation cost assumptions to investigate their impact on system performance and financial metrics. When combined with automated scripting through LK, SDKTool, or Python interfaces, SAM enables high-throughput simulation workflows that support sensitivity analysis, technology benchmarking, and optimization studies. These approaches are particularly valuable for next-generation CST concepts, where design spaces are large and system interactions are complex. Another important capability of SAM is its support for dispatch optimization and thermal energy storage modeling, which are central to the value proposition of CST technologies. The ability to simulate integrated storage and flexible power generation allows researchers to explore strategies that maximize grid value, improve capacity utilization, and enhance integration with variable resources such as photovoltaic and wind generation. This poster will present an overview of SAM's thermal system modeling capabilities including concentrating solar. Additionally, we will highlight new feature developments including: 1) implementing Google's OR-Tools optimization platform for faster and more robust dispatch optimization, 2) developing a new power load following controller for modeling behind-the-meter applications, 3) enabling direct modeling of CSP-PV hybrid systems with the inclusion of battery storage, and 4) developing a multi-receiver falling particle Gen3 system model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DED Additively Manufactured HEAs Optimized via Parametric Study of Functionally Graded Materials

Complex concentrated alloys (CCAs) are a system of alloys composition of nearly equiatomic elements, creating a state of high configurational entropy in the material. These alloys are of interest for various industrial applications due to their high strength and hardness, wide operational temperature range, creep and diffusion resistance, and radiation resistance. In the current work CoCrFeNi-base CCAs are synthesize by combining three commonly industrial alloys: IN718, SS316L, and 70Co30Cr (commercially known as Stellite 21), in-situ utilizing directed energy deposition (DED) additive manufacturing (AM). One bulk specimen is fabricated with a 1:1:1 ratio of IN718, SS316L, and 70Co30Cr where IN718 is a source of nickel and chrome, SS316 is a source of iron and chrome, and 70Co30Cr is a source of cobalt and supplemental chrome. Additionally, a functionally graded material (FGM) of the identified CCA system from SS316 was fabricated with 10 layers, where the initial five layers are the base material of SS316L and graded by steps of 20% to transition to the CCA system. Overall build quality, microstructure, compositional distribution, phases analysis, and microhardness were studied by laser optical microscopy, scanning election microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), X-ray diffraction analysis (XRD), and Vickers microhardness techniques. Overall build quality showed a successful bulk build with acceptable density, however unmelted particles are observed in the as-built alloy. Compositional results show that the system meets the Boltzmann’s hypothesis definition of an HEA, and that an FCC CCA was produced with increased hardness, small grain size, and superior hardness properties to the SS316L substrate. While initial XRD results show predominately FCC structure, EDS analysis of interdendritic regions show the existence of Laves phases in the material. The fabrication of an FGM CCA allowed for potential screening of additional alloy mixes which may be of interest to explore in future research, and the resulting composition is compared to predicted values. This novel method of CCA fabrication results in substantial cost savings of these CCA systems over traditional methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Solution and sensitivity analysis of nonlinear equations using a hypercomplex-variable Newton-Raphson method

Here, the classical Newton-Raphson (NR) method for solving nonlinear equations is enhanced in two ways through the use of hypercomplex variables and algebra. In particular, i) the Jacobian is computed in a highly accurate and automated way, and ii) the derivative of the solution to the nonlinear equations is computed with respect to any parameter contained within the system of equations. These advances provide two significant enhancements in that it is straightforward to provide an accurate Jacobian and to construct a reduced order model (ROM) of arbitrary order with respect to any parameter of the system. The ROM can then be used to approximate the solution for other parameter values without requiring additional solutions of the nonlinear equations. Several case studies are presented including 1D and 2D academic examples with fully functioning Python code provided. Additionally, a case of study of the catenary of an elastic cable subject to its own weight and a vertical point load. Derivatives up to 10th order were computed with respect to material, loading, and geometrical parameters. The derivatives were used to generate reduced order models of the cable deformation and reaction forces at its ends with respect to multiple input parameters. Results show that from a single hypercomplex evaluation of the cable under a single vertical point load, it is possible to generate an accurate reduced order model capable of predicting the cable deformation with 1.5 times the load in the opposite direction and with 3.5 times the load in the same direction without resolving the system of equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development of Innovative Non-Concentrated Alloy (NCA) Fuel Cladding for Advanced Nuclear Reactors

As the nuclear energy sector advances toward next-generation reactors, the need for high-performance fuel cladding materials has become increasingly urgent. Traditional alloys like zirconium and stainless steel are reaching their performance limits under higher temperatures, more corrosive coolants, and extended irradiation. This report presents the development of a new class of fuel cladding materials based on Non-Concentrated Alloys (NCAs) ? multi-element systems designed to deliver enhanced mechanical strength, corrosion resistance, and radiation tolerance. Through a combination of computational modeling (Computer Coupling of Phase Diagrams and Thermochemistry: CALPHAD), simulation-guided alloy selection, and experimental fabrication via arc melting and spark plasma sintering (SPS), three strategic alloy design paths were explored: (1) FeCrAl-based NCAs, (2) refractory-lean neutron-efficient alloys, and (3) equimolar high-entropy compositions. Microstructural analysis confirmed the formation of stable body-centered cubic BCC_A2 phases, while mechanical testing demonstrated hardness values significantly exceeding those of conventional cladding materials. The results highlight the tunability of NCA systems and their potential for balancing strength and ductility ? a critical consideration for in-reactor performance. Looking forward, future work will focus on thermomechanical optimization, CALPHAD refinement, and benchmarking against industry standards to enable scalable deployment. This work not only advances the science of nuclear materials but also supports broader goals in nuclear safety, performance, and nuclear energy innovation.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Recent advances in biomass pretreatment using biphasic solvent systems

The complexity and recalcitrance of lignocellulosic biomass seriously hinder its subsequent conversion to liquid fuels. To achieve high-value utilization of lignocellulosic biomass, the physical–chemical barrier should be overcome through appropriate pretreatment techniques to improve the accessibility of cellulose for efficient enzymatic hydrolysis. With the rapid emergence of novel pretreatment solvents, biphasic solvent pretreatments represent a nascent and green pretreatment method that has shown outstanding advantages and broad application prospects in the biorefinery of lignocellulosic substrates due to its ability to provide economically viable biomass upgrading, the separation process for products in the solvent phase, and the reutilization of solvents. Herein, different types of biphasic solvents (e.g., 2-methyltetrahydrofuran, methyl isobutyl ketone, 1-butanol, phenoxyethanol, ionic liquids, and deep eutectic solvents) were reviewed systematically, including the fundamental designs of biphasic solvents for biomass pretreatment, their effect on the fractionation of individual biomass components (e.g., carbohydrate and lignin) and the enzymatic hydrolysis performance, and the coproduction of furan and hydroxymethylfurfural. Finally, the main pros and cons of these different biphasic solvent systems are summarized, and the future development direction is also proposed. Finally, this review can provide a reference for designing and selecting effective biphasic pretreatment methods for various types of lignocellulosic biomass.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+) Version 4.1 Technical Reference Manual

The HyRAM+ software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen, methane, and propane systems. HyRAM+ is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM+ integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, characterizing hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from delayed ignition), and assessing impacts on people. HyRAM+ is developed at Sandia National Laboratories to support the development and revision of national and international codes and standards, and to provide developed models in a publicly-accessible toolkit usable by all stakeholders. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM+ version 4.1. The two most significant changes for HyRAM+ version 4.1 from HyRAM+ version 4.0 are direct incorporation of unconfined overpressure into the QRA calculations and modification of the models for cryogenic liquid flow through an orifice. In QRA mode, the user no longer needs to input peak overpressure and impulse values that were calculated separately; rather, the unconfined overpressure is estimated for the given system inputs, leak size, and occupant location. The orifice flow model now solves for the maximum mass flux through the orifice at constant entropy while conserving energy, which does not require a direct speed of sound calculation. This does not affect the mass flow for all-gaseous releases; the method results in the same speed of sound for choked flow. However, this method does result in a higher (and more realistic) mass flow rate for a given leak size for liquid releases than was previously calculated.

08 HYDROGEN↗