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Simulation and Modeling of Hypersonic Turbulent Boundary Layers Subject to Favorable Pressure Gradients due to Streamline Curvature

Direct numerical simulations (DNS) of favorable-pressure-gradient turbulent boundary layers are presented for a nominal freestream Mach number of 5, with the objective of assessing the limitations of the currently available Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models. The favorable pressure gradient is induced by the streamwise curvature of the two-dimensional, planar, convex measurement surface used during experiments at the Texas A&M University. The DNS data shows good comparison with the measured velocity profiles, strain rates, and some, but not all, of the Reynolds-stress components. The discrepancies between the predicted and the measured wall-normal as well as shear stress components are primarily attributed to the lower than actual values inferred from typical PIV measurements of turbulent boundary layers. The DNS data shows a zero or slightly negative Reynolds shear stress in the outer part of the boundary-layer, which is indicative of the decaying turbulent motion under a strong favorable pressure gradient. The DNS data is also compared with the results of RANS computations based on commonly used zero, one, and two equation eddy-viscosity models. The RANS models yield reasonable comparisons with the DNS-based skin friction under zero and weak pressure gradients, but significant discrepancies under a strong pressure gradient. The k-w SST model provided the best overall predictions of skin friction, except in the region where the flow transitions from a favorable to an adverse pressure gradient. While the RANS models examined herein also give good predictions of the Reynolds shear stress under a sufficiently weak pressure gradient, none of those models are able to appropriately capture the reduction in the Reynolds stresses when the flow was subjected to a strong pressure gradient. An a priori assessment of the turbulent heat-flux prediction based on the assumption of a constant turbulent Prandtl number with the DNS data shows that while the constant turbulent Prandtl number model is effective in predicting the wall-normal component of turbulent heat flux, it does not capture the turbulent heat transfer in the streamwise direction for all the pressure gradient cases. The failure of the constant turbulent Prandtl number model highlights a requirement for more advanced models of the turbulent heat flux.

turbulent boundary layers↗

Laminar to Turbulence Transition in Boundary Layers due to Tripping Devices

Direct numerical simulations (DNS)and linear stability analyses were performed to identify the mechanisms by whichtwo-and three-dimensional trips promote early transition in subsonic boundary layers over a flat plate. Investigations were conducted for threeboundary-layer transition trip configurations:a two-dimensional smooth hump,a two-dimensional rectangular-shapedrod and a three-dimensional zig-zagtape. The smooth hump was used by Park et al.1in the linear and nonlinear parabolized stability (PSE) computations. Reynolds numbersbased on the tripheights are 710, 683,and 300 for the two-and three-dimensional trips, respectively. Simulations withthe smooth hump showed that the flow becomes stable upstream and strongly unstable downstream of the hump. Simulations with the two-dimensional rectangular trip showed that the flow separates at the top of the trip and forms a long recirculation zonedownstream. However, the flow remains steady in the simulation without any external disturbances. Linear stability analysis showed that the inflectional profile in the recirculation zone is strongly unstable to frequencies in the range of 100-300 Hz. Simulations with the external disturbances forced at the frequency of 200 Hz showed that disturbances grow strongly inside the recirculation zone as observed in the Klebanoff2 experiment. Three-dimensional simulations with secondary disturbances of fundamental, subharmonic, and oblique types produced turbulent flows shortlydownstream. The three-dimensional zig-zag trip with a small roughness Reynolds number lead to early breakdown to a turbulent flow.

Stability↗

Understanding the Space Weathering of Mercury Through Laboratory Experiments

Introduction: Airless surfaces across the solar system are continually modified by energetic particles from solar wind and micrometeoroid bombardment [1,2]. This process is known as space weathering, and it alters the chemical, microstructural, and optical properties of surface regoliths on airless bodies, including Mercury. On the Moon and S-type asteroids, the reflectance spectral signatures of space weathering include reddening (increasing reflectance with increasing wavelength), darkening (lowering of reflectance), and the attenuation of characteristic absorption bands [2]. Such spectral changes are driven by the production of Fe-bearing nanoparticles(npFe) through both solar wind irradiation and micrometeoroid bombardment. While our understanding of space weathering for the Moon and near-Earth S-types asteroids is advanced, insight into how these processes operate on other planetary bodies is limited. In particular, Mercury experiences a uniquely intense space weathering environment than planetary counterparts at 1 AU, including a moreintense solar wind flux and higher velocity micrometeoroid impacts [4]. Additionally, Mercury has a surface composition unique in the inner solar system, including regions of the surface with very low albedo known as the low reflectance material (LRM), which is enriched in carbon, likely graphite, up to 4wt.% [5].In addition, the concentration of Fe across Mercury’s surface islow (<2 wt.%) compared to the Moonor S-type asteroids asteroids[6]. Our understanding of the effects of space weathering on C-rich and Fe-poor phases is limited. Since Fe plays a critical role inthe development of space weathering characteristicson other airless surfaces(e.g., npFe), its limited availability may significantly affect the development of space weathering features in Mercury surface materials. We can simulate space weathering processes in the laboratory to explore their effects on the microstructural, chemical, and spectral characteristics of Mercury surface materials[7]. Here we used pulsed laser irradiation to simulate the short duration, high-temperature events associated with micrometeoroid impacts. We performed coordinated analyses including reflectance spectroscopy and electron microscopy to investigate the spectral, chemical, and microstructural changes in these mercurian analog samples. Methods: For these experiments, we usedforsteritic olivine with varying FeOcontents, a mineral phase proposed to be abundant on the surface of Mercury. We mixed each sample with graphite to simulate LRM regions of the surface. Wesynthesized the olivinesamplesat 1-bar at NASA’s Johnson Space Centerand prepared pressed powder pellets for laser irradiation [8].We prepared three samples, each with a base layer of olivineto maintain structural integrity and topped witha surface layer containing the graphite-olivine mixture: 1) Sample SC-001 San Carlos olivine(Fo90.91),2)Sample F-S-002 with0.05 wt.% FeO olivine, and 3) F-T-004 with 0.53 wt.% FeO olivine. Each sample was mixed with 5 wt.% powdered graphite and had grain sizes ranging from 45to 125μm. We irradiated each sample usinga pulsed Nd-YAG laser, (l=1064 nm, ~6 ns pulse duration, energy of 48 mJ/pulse) while undervacuumat Northern Arizona University. The laser was rastered1x and then 5x over the surfaceof each sample to simulate progressive space weathering. We collected in situreflectance spectra from the samples after each laser pulse witha Nicolet IS50 Fourier-Transform Infrared spectrometer (lfrom 0.65-2.5 μm). We used an FEI Nova NanoSEM200scanning electron microscope (SEM) and a Hitachi TM4000 Plus benchtop SEM at Purdue University to image the surface morphology and topography of the samples. We extracted thin sections for analysis in the transmission electron microscope(TEM)using the FEI Helios NanoLab 660 focused ion beam (FIB) SEM at the University of Arizona.We performed analysis of the microstructural and chemical characteristics of the samples using the 200 keV JEOL 2500 scanning TEM at Johnson Space Center. Reflectance Spectroscopy Results:Reflectance spectra for each sample are shown in Fig. 1.SC-001:The spectrum of the unirradiated sample exhibits a weak 1.0 μm absorption feature, associated with Fe2+in the olivine,and low overall reflectance (Fig. 1a). Thereflectance and the depth of the absorption band increases after 1x laser raster but are at their lowest after 5x laser rasters.F-T-004:The unirradiated sample has a blue-sloped spectrum with low reflectance without identifiable absorption features (Fig. 1b). With progressive laser irradiation, the sample reflectance increases and becomes strongly red-sloped.F-S-002:The unirradiated sample exhibits a dark, blue-slopedspectrum. The brightness of the sample increases significantly from <0.2average reflectance over >0.8 reflectance in the most irradiated sampleand thespectral slope also becomesslightly reddened (Fig. 1c). Microstructural and Chemical Analysis: Two primary alteration textures were observed in the samples exposed to simulated space weathering: 1) fluffy C-rich,and 2) vesiculated melt. The fluffy C-rich texture is composed oflow-densitydeposits distributed across the surface of the sample(Fig. 2A). Analysis of a FIB section extracted from a low-density C-rich region in sample SC-001 reveals multiple globule-type deposits, discrete from stacked graphite, likely produced via melting from the laser irradiation [9].The vesiculated melt textureis smooth and uniformly distributed across isolated regions of the sample surface. The vesicles measure up to 100s of nmin diameter. Analysis of a FIB section from this texture was extracted from sample F-T-004 reveals a layer of amorphous melt material, close to 100 nm thick and uniform across the FIB section (Fig. 2B). Isolated regions of this melt layer contain small nanoparticles, <5 nm in diameter. Chemical analysis through energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy reveals the composition of this layer is enriched in Si and depleted in Mg and O compared to the underlying sample. Implications for Space Weathering on Mercury: Previous experiments simulating space weathering of Mercury have showndarkening and reddening of spectra[7,10].However, our use of low-Fe materials and graphite to create a sample set more analogous to the mercurian surface. Our results indicate that sample composition plays a significant and important role in the space weathering of Mercury. In particular, our spectral data demonstrates a strong correlation between spectral slope, Fe content, and simulated space weathering. While the variation in FeO content between samples F-S-002 and F-T-004 is <0.6 wt.%, the spectra deviate from flat to strongly red-sloped(F-T-004). This reddeningmay be linked to the presence of very small nanoparticles observed in the melt textures extracted from sample F-T-004. For the SC-001 sample, the fluffy C-rich textures may be developed by the amalgamation of small graphite particles into these unique morphologies. Such observations indicate that space weathering on Mercury may result in both familiar and new microstructural and chemical characteristics. References: [1]Hapke B. (2001) J. Geophys. Res.-Planet.,106,10039–10073. [2]Pieters C.M. and Noble S.K. (2016) J. Geophys. Res-Planet., 121, 1865–1884. [3] Lucey P.G., and Riner, M.A. (2011) Icarus,212, 451-462.[4]CintalaM.J.(1992)J. Geophys. Res.-Planet.,97,947–973.[5]Klima R.L.et al.(2018)Geophys.Res.Letters, 45, 2945–2953. [6]Nittler L.R., et al. (2011) Science 333, 1847-1850.[7]Sasaki S. and Kurahashi E. (2004) Space weathering on Mercury, Adv.Space Res., 33, 2152-2155.[8] Vander KaadenK.E., et al. (2018) LPSCXLIX, Abstract 1230. [9] McGlaun M.L. et al. (2019) LPSCL, Abstract 2019. [10] TrangD.et al. (2018)LPSCXLIX,Abstract2083

M S Thompson↗

An Obscured, Seyfert 2-like State of the Stellar-mass Black Hole GRS 1915+105 Caused by Failed Disk Winds

We report on Chandra grating spectra of the stellar-mass black hole GRS 1915+105 obtained during a novel, highly obscured state. As the source entered this state, a dense, massive accretion disk wind was detected through strong absorption lines. Photoionization modeling indicates that it must originate close to the central engine, orders of magnitude from the outer accretion disk. Strong, nearly sinusoidal flux variability in this phase yielded a key insight: the wind is blueshifted when its column density is relatively low, but redshifted as it approaches the Compton-thick threshold. At no point does the wind appear to achieve the local escape velocity; in this sense, it is a “failed wind.” Later observations suggest that the disk ultimately fails to keep even the central engine clear of gas, leading to heavily obscured and Compton-thick states characterized by very strong Fe K emission lines. Indeed, these later spectra are successfully described using models developed for obscured active galactic nuclei (AGNs). We discuss our results in terms of the remarkable similarity of GRS 1915+105 deep in its “obscured state” to Seyfert 2 and Compton-thick AGNs, and we explore how our understanding of accretion and obscuration in massive black holes is impacted by our observations.

Black holes↗

An X-Ray Detection of Star Formation in A Highly Magnified Giant Arc

In the past decade, our understanding of how stars and galaxies formed during the first 5 billion years after the Big Bang has been revolutionized by observations that leverage gravitational lensing by intervening masses, which act as natural cosmic telescopes to magnify background sources. Previous studies have harnessed this effect to probe the distant Universe at ultraviolet, optical, infrared and millimetre wavelengths1,2,3,4,5,6. However, strong-lensing studies of young, star-forming galaxies have never extended into X-ray wavelengths, which uniquely trace high-energy phenomena. Here, we report an X-ray detection of star formation in a highly magnified, strongly lensed galaxy. This lensed galaxy, seen during the first third of the history of the Universe, is a low-mass, low-metallicity starburst with elevated X-ray emission, and is a likely analogue to the first generation of galaxies. Our measurements yield insight into the role that X-ray emission from stellar populations in the first generation of galaxies may play in reionizing the Universe. This observation paves the way for future strong-lensing-assisted X-ray studies of distant galaxies reaching orders of magnitude below the detection limits of current deep fields, and previews the depths that will be attainable with future X-ray observatories.

M B Bayliss↗

X-ray Emission from Magnetized Neutron Star Atmospheres at Low Mass Accretion Rates

Recent observations of X-ray pulsars at low luminosities allow, for the first time, to compare theoretical models for the emission from highly magnetized neutron star atmospheres at low mass accretion rates ( M ≲ 10(exp 15) g s(exp -1)) with the broadband X-ray data. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the spectral formation in the neutron star atmosphere at low M and to conduct a parameter study of physical properties of the emitting region. We obtain the structure of the static atmosphere, assuming that Coulomb collisions are the dominant deceleration process. The upper part of the atmosphere is strongly heated by the braking plasma, reaching temperatures of 30–40 keV, while its denser isothermal interior is much cooler (~2 keV). We numerically solve the polarized radiative transfer in the atmosphere with magnetic Compton scattering, free-free processes, and non-thermal cyclotron emission due to possible collisional excitations of electrons. The strongly polarized emitted spectrum has a double-hump shape that is observed in low-luminosity X-ray pulsars. A low-energy “thermal” component is dominated by extraordinary photons that can leave the atmosphere from deeper layers due to their long mean free path at soft energies. We find that a high-energy component is formed due to resonant Comptonization in the heated non-isothermal part of the atmosphere even in the absence of collisional excitations. The latter, however, affect the ratio of the two components. A strong cyclotron line originates from the optically thin, uppermost zone. A fit of the model to NuSTAR and Swift/XRT observations of GX304􀀀1 provides an accurate description of the data with reasonable parameters. The model can thus reproduce the characteristic double-hump spectrum observed in low-luminosity X-ray pulsars and provides insights into spectral formation.

X-Ray binaries↗

On Assessing ERA5 and MERRA2 Representations of Cold-Air Outbreaks Across the Gulf Stream

The warm Gulf Stream sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strongly impact the evolution of winter clouds behind atmospheric cold fronts. Such cloud evolution remains challenging to model. The Gulf Stream is too wide within the ERA5 and MERRA2 reanalyses, affecting the turbulent surface fluxes. Known problems within the ERA5 boundary layer (too-dry and too-cool with too strong westerlies), ascertained primarily from ACTIVATE 2020 campaign aircraft dropsondes and secondarily from older buoy measurements, reinforce surface flux biases. In contrast, MERRA2 winter surface winds and air-sea temperature/humidity differences are slightly too weak, producing surface fluxes that are too low. Reanalyses boundary layer heights in the strongly-forced winter cold-air-outbreak regime are realistic, whereas late-summer quiescent stable boundary layers are too shallow. Nevertheless, the reanalysis biases are small, and reanalyses adequately support their use for initializing higher-resolution cloud process modeling studies of cold-air outbreaks.

Gulf stream↗

Widely Distributed Exogenic Materials of Varying Compositions and Morphologies on Asteroid (101955) Bennu

Using the multiband imager MapCam on board the OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer) spacecraft, we identified 77 instances of proposed exogenic materials distributed globally on the surface of the B-type asteroid (101955) Bennu. We identified materials as exogenic on the basis of an absorption near 1 μm that is indicative of anhydrous silicates. The exogenic materials are spatially resolved by the telescopic camera PolyCam. All such materials are brighter than their surroundings, and they are expressed in a variety of morphologies: homogeneous, breccia-like, inclusion-like, and others. Inclusion-like features are the most common. Visible spectrophotometry was obtained for 46 of the 77 locations from MapCam images. Principal component analysis indicates at least two trends: (i) mixing of Bennu's average spectrum with a strong 1-μm band absorption, possibly from pyroxene-rich material, and (ii) mixing with a weak 1-μm band absorption. The end member with a strong 1-μm feature is consistent with Howardite-Eucrite-Diogenite (HED) meteorites, whereas the one showing a weak 1-μm feature may be consistent with HEDs, ordinary chondrites, or carbonaceous chondrites. The variation in the few available near-infrared reflectance spectra strongly suggests varying compositions among the exogenic materials. Thus, Bennu might record the remnants of multiple impacts with different compositions to its parent body, which could have happened in the very early history of the Solar system. Moreover, at least one of the exogenic objects is compositionally different from the exogenic materials found on the similar asteroid (162173) Ryugu, and they suggest different impact tracks.

minor planets↗

Transient Effects in Atmosphere and Ionosphere Preceding the 2015 M7.8 and M7.3 Gorkha–Nepal Earthquakes

We analyze retrospectively/prospectively the transient variations of six different physical parameters in the atmosphere/ionosphere during the M7.8 and M7.3 earthquakes in Nepal, namely: 1) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA); 2) GPS/TEC; 3) the very-low-frequency (VLF/LF) signals at the receiving stations in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) and Varanasi (India); 4) Radon observations; 5) Atmospheric chemical potential from assimilation models; and; 6) Air Temperature from NOAA ground stations. We found that in mid-March 2015, there was a rapid increase in the radiation from the atmosphere observed by satellites. This anomaly was located close to the future M7.8 epicenter and reached a maximum on April 21–22. The GPS/TEC data analysis indicated an increase and variation in electron density, reaching a maximum value during April 22–24. A strong negative TEC anomaly in the crest of EIA (Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly) occurred on April 21, and a strong positive anomaly was recorded on April 24, 2015. The behavior of VLF-LF waves along NWC-Bishkek and JJY-Varanasi paths has shown abnormal behavior during April 21–23, several days before the first, stronger earthquake. Our continuous satellite OLR analysis revealed this new strong anomaly on May 3, which was why we anticipated another major event in the area. On May 12, 2015, an M7.3 earthquake occurred. Our results show coherence between the appearance of these pre-earthquake transient’s effects in the atmosphere and ionosphere (with a short time-lag, from hours up to a few days) and the occurrence of the 2015 M7.8 and M7.3 events. The spatial characteristics of the pre-earthquake anomalies were associated with a large area but inside the preparation region estimated by Dobrovolsky-Bowman. The preearthquake nature of the signals in the atmosphere and ionosphere was revealed by simultaneous analysis of satellite, GPS/TEC, and VLF/LF and suggest that they follow a general temporal-spatial evolution pattern that has been seen in other large earthquakes worldwide

Dimitar Ouzounov↗

Budgets of Reynolds Stresses and Turbulent Heat Flux for Hypersonic Turbulent Boundary Layers Subject to Pressure Gradients

In this paper, the budget terms in the transport equations of the Reynolds stresses, the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), the internal energy, and the turbulent heat flux are computed using a direct numerical simulation (DNS) database of hypersonic turbulent boundary layers (TBLs) subject to favorable pressure gradients (FPG). Study of the Reynolds stress and TKE budgets shows that FPG has a damping effect on turbulence production, transport, and destruction. The semilocal scaling fails to collapse the Reynolds stress and TKE budget terms between the zero pressure gradient (ZPG) and the strong FPG cases, suggesting that the mechanical nonequilibrium due to FPG leads to changes in Reynolds-stress and TKE transport that cannot be captured by Morkovin’s hypothesis. Minimal change is seen in the internal energy budget in the presence of FPG, indicating a minimal impact due to FPG on the mean thermal field. While the near-wall transport of wall-normal turbulent heat flux is largely governed by the balance between the turbulent viscous-thermal transport term and the turbulent viscous-thermal dissipation term, the transport of the streamwise turbulent heat flux is influenced by contributions from almost all of the budget terms. For the strong FPG case in particular, production due to both the mean and the fluctuating strain rates begins to play a significant role in the near-wall transport of the streamwise turbulent heat flux, and their inclusion or modeling may be required to accurately predict turbulent heat fluxes for a strong FPG.

Reynolds stress↗

Search for Lensing Signatures in the Gravitational-Wave Observations from the First Half of LIGO–Virgo's Third Observing Run

We search for signatures of gravitational lensing in the gravitational-wave signals from compact binary coalescences detected by Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) and Advanced Virgo during O3a, the first half of their third observing run. We study: (1) the expected rate of lensing at current detector sensitivity and the implications of a non-observation of strong lensing or a stochastic gravitational-wave background on the merger-rate density at high redshift; (2) how the interpretation of individual high-mass events would change if they were found to be lensed; (3) the possibility of multiple images due to strong lensing by galaxies or galaxy clusters; and (4) possible wave-optics effects due to point-mass microlenses. Several pairs of signals in the multiple-image analysis show similar parameters and, in this sense, are nominally consistent with the strong lensing hypothesis. However, taking into account population priors, selection effects, and the prior odds against lensing, these events do not provide sufficient evidence for lensing. Overall, we find no compelling evidence for lensing in the observed gravitational-wave signals from any of these analyses.

R. Abbott↗

Secure Mass Measurements From Transit Timing: 10 Kepler Exoplanets Between 3 and 8M⊕ with Diverse Densities and Incident Fluxes

We infer dynamical masses in eight multiplanet systems using transit times measured from Keplerʼs complete dataset, including short-cadence data where available. Of the 18 dynamical masses that we infer, 10 pass multiple tests for robustness. These are in systems Kepler-26 (KOI-250), Kepler-29 (KOI-738), Kepler-60 (KOI-2086), Kepler-105 (KOI-115), and Kepler-307 (KOI-1576). Kepler -105 c has a radius of 1.3R⊕ and a density consistent with an Earth-like composition. Strong transit timing variation (TTV) signals were detected from additional planets, but their inferred masses were sensitive to outliers or consistent solutions could not be found with independently measured transit times, including planets orbiting Kepler-49 (KOI-248), Kepler-57 (KOI-1270), Kepler-105 (KOI-115), and Kepler-177 (KOI-523). Nonetheless, strong upper limits on the mass of Kepler-177 cimply an extremely low density of 0.1 g cm−3. In most cases, individual orbital eccentricities were poorly constrained owing to degeneracies in TTV inversion. For five planet pairs in our sample, strong secular interactions imply a moderate to high likelihood of apsidal alignment over a wide range of possible eccentricities. We also find solutions for the three planets known to orbit Kepler-60 in a Laplace-like resonance chain. However, nonlibrating solutions also match the transit timing data. For six systems, we calculate more precise stellar parameters than previously known, enabling useful constraints on planetary densities where we have secure mass measurements. Placing these exoplanets on the mass–radius diagram, we find that a wide range of densities is observed among sub-Neptune-mass planets and that the range in observed densities is anticorrelated with incident flux.

Stars individual↗

Climate Drivers of Global Wildfire Burned Area

Wildfire is an integral part of the Earth system, but at the same time it can pose serious threats to human society and to certain types of terrestrial ecosystems. Meteorological conditions are a key driver of wildfire activity and extent, which led to the emergence of the use of fire danger indices that depend solely on weather conditions. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a widely used fire danger index of this kind. Here, we evaluate how well the FWI, its components, and the climate variables from which it is derived, correlate with observation-based burned area (BA) for a variety of world regions. We use a novel technique, according to which monthly BA are grouped by size for each Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) pyrographic region. We find strong correlations of BA anomalies with the FWI anomalies, as well as with the underlying deviations from their climatologies for the four climate variables from which FWI is estimated, namely, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and wind. We quantify the relative sensitivity of the observed BA to each of the four climate variables, finding that this relationship strongly depends on the pyrographic region and land type. Our results indicate that the BA anomalies strongly correlate with FWI anomalies at a GFED region scale, compared to the strength of the correlation with individual climate variables. Additionally, among the individual climate variables that comprise the FWI, relative humidity and temperature are the most influential factors that affect the observed BA. Our results support the use of the composite fire danger index FWI, as well as its sub-indices, the Build-Up Index (BUI) and the Initial Spread Index (ISI), comparing to single climate variables, since they are found to correlate better with the observed forest or non-forest BA, for the most regions across the globe.

Wildfire↗

Climatology of Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Residual Circulations and Mesopause Height Derived From SABER Observations

In the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region, residual circulations driven by gravity wave breaking and dissipation significantly impact constituent distribution and the height and temperature of the mesopause. The distribution of CO2 can be used as a proxy for the residual circulations. Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) CO2 volume mixing ratio (VMR) and temperature measurements from 2003 to 2020 are used to study the monthly climatology of MLT residual circulations and the mesopause height. Our analyses show that (a) mesopause height strongly correlates with the CO2 VMR vertical gradient during solstices; (b) mesopause height has a discontinuity at midlatitude in the summer hemisphere, with a lower mesopause height at mid-to-high latitudes as a result of adiabatic cooling driven by strong adiabatic upwelling; (c) the residual circulations have strong seasonal variations at mid-to-high latitudes, but they are more uniform at low latitudes; and (d) the interannual variability of the residual circulations and mesopause height is larger in the Southern Hemisphere (SH; 4–5 km) than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH; 0.5–1 km).

SABER↗

Exploring the Relationship Between Temperature Forecast Errors and Earth System Variables

Accurate subseasonal weather forecasts, from two weeks up to a season, can help reduce costs and impacts related to weather and corresponding extremes. The quality of weather forecasts has improved considerably in recent decades as models represent more details of physical processes, and they benefit from assimilating comprehensive Earth observation data as well as increasing computing power. However, with ever–growing model complexity, it becomes increasingly difficult to pinpoint weaknesses in the forecast models’ process representations which is key to improving forecast accuracy. In this study, we use a comprehensive set of observation–based ecological, hydrological and meteorological variables to study their potential for explaining temperature forecast errors at the weekly time scale. For this purpose, we compute Spearman correlations between each considered variable and the forecast error obtained from the ECMWF subseasonal–to–seasonal (S2S) reforecasts at lead times of 1–6 weeks. This is done across the globe for the time period 2001–2017. The results show that temperature forecast errors globally are most strongly related with climate–related variables such as surface solar radiation and precipitation, which highlights the model’s difficulties in accurately capturing the evolution of the climate–related variables during the forecasting period. At the same time, we find particular regions in which other variables are more strongly related to forecast errors. For instance, in central Europe, eastern North America and southeastern Asia, vegetation greenness and soil moisture are relevant, while in western South America and central North America, circulation–related variables such as surface pressure relate more strongly with forecast errors. Overall, the identified relationships between forecast errors and independent Earth observations reveal promising variables on which future forecasting system development could focus by specifically considering related process representations and data assimilation.

Temperature↗

Secure Mass Measurements From Transit Timing: 10 Kepler Exoplanets Between 3 and 8 M⊕ With Diverse Densities and Incident Fluxes

We infer dynamical masses in eight multiplanet systems using transit times measured from Keplerʼs complete data set, including short-cadence data where available. Of the 18 dynamical masses that we infer, 10 pass multiple tests for robustness. These are in systems Kepler-26 (KOI-250), Kepler-29 (KOI-738), Kepler-60 (KOI-2086), Kepler-105 (KOI-115), and Kepler-307 (KOI-1576). Kepler-105 c has a radius of 1.3 R(sub ⨁) and a density consistent with an Earth-like composition. Strong transit timing variation (TTV) signals were detected from additional planets, but their inferred masses were sensitive to outliers or consistent solutions could not be found with independently measured transit times, including planets orbiting Kepler-49 (KOI-248), Kepler-57 (KOI-1270), Kepler-105 (KOI-115), and Kepler-177 (KOI-523). Nonetheless, strong upper limits on the mass of Kepler-177 c imply an extremely low density of ∽0.1 g cm(exp −3). In most cases, individual orbital eccentricities were poorly constrained owing to degeneracies in TTV inversion. For five planet pairs in our sample, strong secular interactions imply a moderate to high likelihood of apsidal alignment over a wide range of possible eccentricities. We also find solutions for the three planets known to orbit Kepler-60 in a Laplace-like resonance chain. However, nonlibrating solutions also match the transit timing data. For six systems, we calculate more precise stellar parameters than previously known, enabling useful constraints on planetary densities where we have secure mass measurements. Placing these exoplanets on the mass–radius diagram, we find that a wide range of densities is observed among sub-Neptune-mass planets and that the range in observed densities is anticorrelated with incident flux.

Individual stars↗

Migration of Accreting Planets in Radiative Discs From Dynamical Torques

We present the results of hydrodynamical simulations of the orbital evolution of planets undergoing runaway gas accretion in radiative discs. We consider accreting disc models with constant mass flux through the disc, and where radiative cooling balances the effect of viscous heating and stellar irradiation. We assume that 20–30 M(sub ⨁) giant planet cores are formed in the region where viscous heating dominates and migrate outward under the action of a strong entropy-related corotation torque. In the case where gas accretion is neglected and for an α viscous stress parameter α = 2 × 10(exp -3), we find evidence for strong dynamical torques in accreting discs with accretion rates M ̇ ≳ 7 × 10(exsp -8)M(sub ⨀) yr(exp -1). Their main effect is to increase outward migration rates by a factor of ∼2 typically. In the presence of gas accretion, however, runaway outward migration is observed with the planet passing through the zero-torque radius and the transition between the viscous heating and stellar heating dominated regimes. The ability for an accreting planet to enter a fast migration regime is found to depend strongly on the planet growth rate but can occur for values of the mass flux through the disc of M ̇ ≳ 5 × 10(exp -8)M(sub ⨀) yr(exp -1).We find that an episode of runaway outward migration can cause an accreting planet formed in the 5–10 au region to temporarily orbit at star–planet separations as large as∼60–70 au. However, increase in the amplitude of the Lindblad torque associated with planet growth plus change in the streamline topology near the planet systematically cause the direction of migration to be reversed. Subsequent evolution corresponds to the planet migrating inward rapidly until it becomes massive enough to open a gap in the disc and migrate in the type II regime. Our results indicate that a planet can reach large orbital distances under the combined effect of dynamical torques and gas accretion, but an alternative mechanism is required to explain the presence of massive planets on wide orbits.

Accretion↗

Investigating Hydroclimatic Impacts of the 168–158 BCE Volcanic Quartet and Their Relevance to the Nile River Basin and Egyptian History

The Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE) is an important period of Ancient Egyptian history known for its material and scientific advances, but also intermittent political and social unrest in the form of (sometimes widespread) revolts against the Ptolemaic elites. While the role of environmental pressures has long been overlooked in this period of Egyptian history, ice-core-based volcanic histories have identified the period as experiencing multiple notable eruptions, and a repeated temporal association between explosive volcanism and revolt has recently been noted. Here we analyze the global and regional (Nile River basin) hydroclimatic response to a unique historical sequence of four large and closely timed volcanic eruptions (first a tropical one, followed by three extratropical northern hemispheric events) between 168 and 158 BCE, a particularly troubled period in Ptolemaic history for which we now provide a more detailed hydroclimatic context. The NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2.1 Earth system model simulates a strong radiative response with a radiative forcing (top of atmosphere) of −7.5 W m−2 (following the first eruption) and −2.5 W m−2 (after each of the three remaining eruptions) at a global scale. Associated with this, we observe a global surface cooling of the order of 1.5 ∘C following the first (tropical) eruption, with the following three extratropical eruptions extending the cooling period for more than 15 years. Consequently, this series of eruptions is observed to constrain the northward migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon season, and major monsoon zones (African, South Asian, and East Asian) were seen to experience a suppression of rainfall of >1 mm d−1 during the monsoon (JJAS) season averaged for 2 years after each eruption. A substantial suppression of the Indian and North African summer monsoon (over the Nile River headwater region) was seen to strongly affect the modeled river flow in the catchment and discharge at river mouth. River mass flow over the basin was observed to decrease by 29 % and 38 % relative to an unperturbed (non-volcanic) annual mean flow in the first and second year, respectively, after the first (i.e., tropical) eruption. A moderate decrease ranging between 5 % and 18 % was observed after the third and fourth (extratropical) eruptions. These results indicate, in sum, that the first eruption likely produced a strong hydroclimate response, with the following extratropical eruptions prolonging this. These results also support the recently hypothesized association between ice-core-based signals of explosive volcanism and hydroclimatic variability during the Ptolemaic era, including the suppression of the agriculturally critical Nile summer flooding.

hydroclimate impacts↗