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At least 1,171 records · Page 65
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Numerical analysis of a time discretized method for nonlinear filtering problem with Lévy process observations

Abstract In this paper, we consider a nonlinear filtering model with observations driven by correlated Wiener processes and point processes. We first derive a Zakai equation whose solution is an unnormalized probability density function of the filter solution. Then, we apply a splitting-up technique to decompose the Zakai equation into three stochastic differential equations, based on which we construct a splitting-up approximate solution and prove its half-order convergence. Furthermore, we apply a finite difference method to construct a time semi-discrete approximate solution to the splitting-up system and prove its half-order convergence to the exact solution of the Zakai equation. Finally, we present some numerical experiments to demonstrate the theoretical analysis.

Mathematics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining the Reaction Rate of Criegee Intermediates with Carboxylic Acids during the Multiphase Ozonolysis of Aerosolized Alkenes

Criegee intermediates (CIs) are central to the ozonolysis of unsaturated organic compounds, controlling the formation of small fragmentation reaction products and higher molecular weight oligomeric compounds through competing unimolecular and bimolecular pathways. In particular, the reaction of thermalized CI with carboxylic acids (RCOOH) to produce oligomeric α-acyloxyalkyl hydroperoxides (AAHPs) is of interest to the chemical transformation of organic compounds in the atmosphere. In the gas phase, the CI + RCOOH reaction proceeds at supercollisional rates, consistent with a barrierless reaction mechanism. However, the rate of this reaction in condensed phases remains uncertain. Here, we report the results of aerosol flow tube studies of the ozonolysis of submicron organic aerosol containing mixtures of an internal n-alkene (Z-9-tricosene, tri) and a saturated acid (2-hexyldecanoic acid, HDA). The decay of the reactants and formation of reaction products are monitored using atmospheric pressure chemical ionization mass spectrometry (APCI–MS). A 6-fold decrease in the reactive uptake of ozone is observed with increasing acid concentration, consistent with a previous study using alcohol additives. The decay of HDA with ozone exposure shows that HDA scavenges CIs at rates comparable to competing unimolecular pathways involving CIs. The decay kinetics of HDA are analyzed using a simple kinetic model in order to constrain the ratio of the CI + RCOOH and unimolecular CI rate constants. Empirical fitting to this model, combined with theoretical estimates of the unimolecular loss rate, yields a CI + RCOOH rate constant of 1.85 ± 0.27 × 10 –19 cm 3 molec –1 s –1 , which is six orders of magnitude slower than the expected diffusion limit in a liquid organic matrix. Stochastic kinetic simulations are conducted with different values of the CI + RCOOH rate constant to validate this result and show that the diffusion-limited rate is indeed much too rapid to reproduce the experimental results.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

A multidimensional approach to quantum state tomography of photoelectron wavepackets

There is a growing interest in reconstructing the density matrix of photoelectron wavepackets, in particular in complex systems where decoherence can be introduced either by a partial measurement of the system or through coupling with a stochastic environment. To this end, several methods to reconstruct the density matrix, quantum state tomography protocols, have been developed and tested on photoelectrons ejected from noble gases following absorption of extreme ultraviolet (XUV) photons from attosecond pulses. It remains a challenge to obtain model-free, single scan protocols that can reconstruct the density matrix with high fidelities. Current methods require extensive measurements or involve complex fitting of the signal. Efficient single-scan reconstructions would be of great help to increase the number of systems that can be studied. We propose a new and more efficient protocol that is able to reconstruct the continuous variable density matrix of a photoelectron in a single time delay scan. It is based on measuring the coherences of a photoelectron created by absorption of an XUV pulse using a broadband infrared (IR) probe that is scanned in time and a narrowband IR reference that is temporally fixed to the XUV pulse. We illustrate its performance for a Fano resonance in He as well as mixed states in Ar arising from spin-orbit splitting. We show that the protocol results in excellent fidelities and near-perfect estimation of the purity.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The maintenance of coherent vortex topology by Lagrangian chaos in drift-Rossby wave turbulence

Here, this work introduces the “potential vorticity bucket brigade,” a mechanism for explaining the resilience of vortex structures in magnetically confined fusion plasmas and geophysical flows. Drawing parallels with zonal jet formation, we show how inhomogeneous patterns of mixing can reinforce, rather than destroy non-zonal flow structure. We accomplish this through an exact stochastic Lagrangian representation of vorticity transport, together with a near-integrability property, which relates coherent flow topology to fluid relabeling symmetries. We demonstrate these ideas in the context of gradient-driven magnetized plasma turbulence, though the tools we develop here are model-agnostic and applicable beyond the system studied here.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic hydrodynamics and hydro-kinetics: Similarities and differences

The hydro-kinetic formalism has been used as a complementary approach to solving the Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE) corresponding to noisy hydrodynamics. The hydro-kinetic formalism consists of a deterministic set of relaxation type equations that tracks the evolution of 2-point correlation functions of stochastic hydrodynamic quantities. Hence they are comparatively easier to solve than the SDEs, which are computationally intensive and need to deal with arbitrarily large gradients. This work compares the two approaches for the propagation and diffusion of conserved charge fluctuations in the Bjorken hydrodynamic model. For white noise, the two approaches agree. For colored Catteneo noise, which is causal, the two approaches diverge. This is because white noise only induces two-point correlations, while Catteneo noise also induces higher-order correlations. Furthermore, this difference is quantified from the effects of causal evolution and influence from higher-order correlations induced by the Catteneo noise.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty Error Modeling for Non-Linear State Estimation With Unsynchronized SCADA and µPMU Measurements

Distribution systems of the future smart grid require enhancements to the reliability of distribution system state estimation (DSSE) in the face of low measurement redundancy, unsynchronized measurements, and dynamic load profiles. Micro phasor measurement units (µPMUs) facilitate co-synchronized measurements with high granularity, albeit at an often prohibitively expensive installation cost. Supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) measurements can supplement µPMU data, although they are received at a slower sampling rate. Further complicating matters is the uncertainty associated with load dynamics and unsynchronized measurements–not only are the SCADA and µPMU measurements not synchronized with each other, but the SCADA measurements themselves are received at different time intervals with respect to one another. This paper proposes a non-linear state estimation framework which models dynamic load uncertainty error by updating the variances of the unsynchronized measurements, leading to a time-varying system of weights in the weighted least squares state estimator. Case studies are performed on the 33-Bus Distribution System in MATPOWER, using Ornstein–Uhlenbeck stochastic processes to simulate dynamic load conditions.

Cooper, Austin↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Multi-agent Large Language Model Reasoning for Autonomous Heterogeneous Catalyst Discovery

Artificial intelligence is reshaping scientific exploration, but most methods automate procedural tasks without engaging in scientific reasoning, limiting autonomy in discovery. We demonstrate that hierarchical agentic large language model reasoning can efficiently drive simulation and scientific exploration. Across two chemical applications, CO adsorption on Cu surface transition metal adatoms and on M–N–C catalysts, reasoning-guided exploration reduces required atomistic simulations by up to 90% relative to heuristic or random selection. Comparisons across single-agent, multi-agent, and stochastic baselines show that hierarchical strategies yield more coherent and information-efficient search trajectories. Reasoning traces reveal chemically grounded decisions that cannot be explained by semantic bias or stochastic sampling. We realize these agentic reasoning strategies in Materials Agents for Simulation and Theory in Electronic-structure Reasoning (MASTER), a multimodal system that translates natural language into density functional theory workflows. Altogether, multi-agent collaboration accelerates heterogeneous catalyst discovery and marks a step toward more autonomous, reasoning-guided scientific exploration.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Parameter identification methods for low-order gray box building energy models: A critical review

The body of knowledge on gray box building energy modeling (GBBEM) has been developed over the past few decades and has undergone some important changes recently. Starting with simple methods and simple buildings, the science of GBBEM has grown to encompass complex and more computationally intensive techniques and complex commercial buildings. Numerous works including a recent review have considered model structure and inputs in a nearly systematic way, but no extant work systematically reviews the approaches for GBBEM parameter search initialization and final identification, despite this being arguably the most difficult and impactful part of the modeling process. To this end, we critically review 55 extant works describing advantages, limitations, and domain of applicability of several classes of parameter initialization and optimization techniques specifically for GBBEM. We categorize the classes of methods and analyze the evidence of their applicability for different applications within the field of GBBEM. We find an emerging consensus that initialization of parameter searches for anything other than the simplest building elements is often challenging and sometimes requires a stochastic approach to begin the parameter identification process. After this initial process, faster methods have been used in some cases but often the nature of the problem requires stochastic methods for this portion of the process as well. For less complex systems, more deterministic and efficient methods have been shown to be effective. Finally, we draw conclusions as to the domain of applicability of different classes of initialization and optimization techniques for GBBEEM and offer suggestions for research directions that are likely to prove fruitful.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity

Significance Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. Here, we develop a general approach bridging across these timescales and demonstrate how to incorporate population heterogeneity into a wide class of epidemiological models. We demonstrate that a fragile state of transient collective immunity emerges during early, high-paced stages of the epidemic, leading to suppression of individual epidemic waves. However, this state is not an indication of lasting herd immunity: Subsequent waves may emerge due to stochastic changes in individual social activity. Parameters of transient collective immunity are estimated using empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic in several US locations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Logarithmic Bayesian Approach to Quantum Error Detection

We consider the problem of continuous quantum error correction from a Bayesian perspective, proposing a pair of digital filters using logarithmic probabilities that are able to achieve near-optimal performance on a three-qubit bit-flip code, while still being reasonable to implement on low-latency hardware. These practical filters are approximations of an optimal filter that we derive explicitly for finite time steps, in contrast with previous work that has relied on stochastic differential equations such as the Wonham filter. By utilizing logarithmic probabilities, we are able to eliminate the need for explicit normalization and can reduce the Gaussian noise distribution to a simple quadratic expression. The state transitions induced by the bit-flip errors are modeled using a Markov chain, which for log-probabilities must be evaluated using a LogSumExp function. We develop the two versions of our filter by constraining this LogSumExp to have either one or two inputs, which favors either simplicity or accuracy, respectively. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that the single-term and two-term filters are able to significantly outperform both a double threshold scheme and a linearized version of the Wonham filter in tests of error detection under a wide variety of error rates and time steps.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reinforcement Learning-based Output Structured Feedback for Distributed Multi-Area Power System Frequency Control

Load frequency control (LFC) is a key factor to maintain the stable frequency in multi-area power systems. As the modern power systems evolve from centralized to decentralized paradigm, LFC needs to consider the decentralized scheme that considers limited information from the information-exchange graph for the generator control of each interconnected area. This paper aims to solve a data-driven constrained LQR problem with mean-variance risk constraints and output structured feedback, and applies this framework to solve the LFC problem in multi-area power systems. By reformulating the constrained optimization problem into a minimax problem, the stochastic gradient descent max-oracle (SGDmax) algorithm with zero-order policy gradient (ZOPG) is adopted to find the optimal feedback gain from the learning, while guaranteeing the convergence. In addition, to improve the adaptation of the proposed learning method to new or varying models, we construct an emulator grid that approximates the dynamics of a physical grid and performs training based on this model. Once the feedback gain is obtained from the emulator grid, it is applied to the physical grid with a robustness test to check whether the controller from the approximated emulator applies to the actual system. Numerical tests show that the obtained feedback controller can successfully control the frequency of each area, while mitigating the uncertainty from the loads, with reliable robustness that ensures the adaptability of the obtained feedback gain to the actual physical grid.

Kwon, Kyung-bin↗
DOE OSTI2022

Discovering causal structure with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space ε -machines

We merge computational mechanics’ definition of causal states (predictively equivalent histories) with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) representation inference. The result is a widely applicable method that infers causal structure directly from observations of a system’s behaviors whether they are over discrete or continuous events or time. A structural representation—a finite- or infinite-state kernel ϵ-machine—is extracted by a reduced-dimension transform that gives an efficient representation of causal states and their topology. In this way, the system dynamics are represented by a stochastic (ordinary or partial) differential equation that acts on causal states. We introduce an algorithm to estimate the associated evolution operator. Paralleling the Fokker–Planck equation, it efficiently evolves causal-state distributions and makes predictions in the original data space via an RKHS functional mapping. We demonstrate these techniques, together with their predictive abilities, on discrete-time, discrete-value infinite Markov-order processes generated by finite-state hidden Markov models with (i) finite or (ii) uncountably infinite causal states and (iii) continuous-time, continuous-value processes generated by thermally driven chaotic flows. The method robustly estimates causal structure in the presence of varying external and measurement noise levels and for very high-dimensional data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast and Universal Kohn-Sham Density Functional Theory Algorithm for Warm Dense Matter to Hot Dense Plasma

Understanding many processes, e.g., fusion experiments, planetary interiors, and dwarf stars, depends strongly on microscopic physics modeling of warm dense matter and hot dense plasma. This complex state of matter consists of a transient mixture of degenerate and nearly free electrons, molecules, and ions. This regime challenges both experiment and analytical modeling, necessitating predictive ab initio atomistic computation, typically based on quantum mechanical Kohn-Sham density functional theory (KS-DFT). However, cubic computational scaling with temperature and system size prohibits the use of DFT through much of the warm dense matter regime. A recently developed stochastic approach to KS-DFT can be used at high temperatures, with the exact same accuracy as the deterministic approach, but the stochastic error can converge slowly and it remains expensive for intermediate temperatures (< 50 eV). Here we have developed a universal mixed stochastic-deterministic algorithm for DFT at any temperature. This approach leverages the physics of KS-DFT to seamlessly integrate the best aspects of these different approaches. We demonstrate that this method significantly accelerated self-consistent field calculations for temperatures from 3 to 50 eV, while producing stable molecular dynamics and accurate diffusion coefficients.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Smart thermostat data-driven U.S. residential occupancy schedules and development of a U.S. residential occupancy schedule simulator

Occupancy schedule is one of the key inputs in Building Energy Modeling (BEM) to reflect the interaction between buildings and occupants. Over the past decades, standardized occupancy schedules, developed mainly by engineering rule-of-thumb, have been widely used in BEM due to its simplicity and lack of real measured occupancy data. However, the BEM community has recognized their association with uncertainty and reliability in simulation results from BEM. This study introduces representative occupancy schedules in the U.S. residential buildings, derived from a large smart thermostat dataset and time-series K-means clustering, and an open-source tool to generate a stochastic residential occupancy schedule. Over 90,000 residential occupancy schedules were estimated from the ecobee Donate Your Data dataset. Then, the representative occupancy schedules were identified through clustering. This study further investigated the impacts of three parameters (day, house type, and state) on residential occupancy schedules. Then, a tool, the Residential Occupancy Schedule Simulator (ROSS), is developed using the representative occupancy schedules derived in this study. Details of this tool are presented in this paper. In conclusion, the derived representative occupancy schedules and the ROSS tool can help improve the energy modeling of residential buildings.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainties in Local Intense Precipitation Flood Modeling

In the Task 1 report for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) funded Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Pilot Study, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) reviewed hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approaches for estimation of LIP flooding and their implementation in readily available simulation software packages (Prasad and Yuan 2020). NRC’s interest is in developing guidance for performing LIP PFHA at nuclear power plant (NPP) sites. This report describes the work done under Task 2 of the study that focused on describing uncertainties associated with LIP flood modeling. Two main types of uncertainties exist in LIP flood modeling: (1) aleatory uncertainties that arise from the inherent natural variability of the hydrometeorological system and (2) epistemic uncertainties that arise from the analysts’ incomplete knowledge of the hydrometeorological and site configuration. Principal sources for aleatory variability in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include precipitation (i.e., magnitude, duration, and temporal distribution of LIP events), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture content, stormwater drainage discharge, surface storage), boundary conditions (e.g., upstream discharge, downstream water surface elevations), and long-term temporal trends (e.g., climate change). This report describes approaches used for estimating the aleatory variability in precipitation including precipitation-frequency analysis, numerical weather prediction, and stochastic weather generation. Data sources that can be used to estimate aleatory variability in initial and boundary conditions are also described. Approaches to include effects of long-term trends like those from climate change into estimation of aleatory variability are summarized. Sources of epistemic uncertainty in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include process representation (e.g., multiple approaches to represent runoff generation, stormwater drainage, and hydraulic routing), site configurations (e.g., site layout, flow features, status of temporary flood protection, blockage of drains), model resolution, and long-term temporal trends (e.g., known/planned site alterations, land-use changes at and in the vicinity of the site). The report describes alternative process representations (methods and models), particularly those implemented in the LIP flood simulation software packages reviewed in Task 1 report, and lists the associated model parameters. Approaches for estimating model parameters when surface and subsurface water exchanges occur are also described.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reducing Ground-based Astrometric Errors with Gaia and Gaussian Processes

Stochastic field distortions caused by atmospheric turbulence are a fundamental limitation to the astrometric accuracy of ground-based imaging. This distortion field is measurable at the locations of stars with accurate positions provided by the Gaia DR2 catalog; we develop the use of Gaussian process regression (GPR) to interpolate the distortion field to arbitrary locations in each exposure. We introduce an extension to standard GPR techniques that exploits the knowledge that the 2D distortion field is curl-free. Applied to several hundred 90 s exposures from the Dark Energy Survey as a test bed, we find that the GPR correction reduces the variance of the turbulent astrometric distortions ≈12× , on average, with better performance in denser regions of the Gaia catalog. The rms per-coordinate distortion in the riz bands is typically ≈7 mas before any correction and ≈2 mas after application of the GPR model. The GPR astrometric corrections are validated by the observation that their use reduces, from 10 to 5 mas rms, the residuals to an orbit fit to riz-band observations over 5 yr of the r = 18.5 trans-Neptunian object Eris. We also propose a GPR method, not yet implemented, for simultaneously estimating the turbulence fields and the 5D stellar solutions in a stack of overlapping exposures, which should yield further turbulence reductions in future deep surveys.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gravitational waves from fully general relativistic oscillon preheating

As long-lived quasisolitons from the fragmentation of a scalar condensate, oscillons may dominate the preheating era after inflation. During this period, stochastic gravitational waves can also be generated. Here we quantify the gravitational-wave production in this period with simulations accounting for full general relativity to capture all possible nonperturbative effects. We compute the gravitational-wave spectra across a range of choices of the oscillon preheating models and compare our results to a conventional perturbative approach on a Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) background. We clarify the gauge ambiguities in computing induced gravitational waves from scenarios where dense nonperturbative objects such as oscillons are being formed. In particular, we find that the synchronous gauge tends to contain large artificial enhancements in the gravitational-wave spectrum due to gauge modes if gravity plays an important role in the formation of the oscillons, while other gauge choices, such as the radiation gauge or a suitably chosen “1+log” gauge, can efficiently reduce the contributions of gauge modes. The full general-relativistic simulations indicate that gravitational-wave spectra obtained from the perturbative approach on the FLRW background are fairly accurate, except when oscillon formation induces strong gravitational effects, for which case there can be an order unity enhancement.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗