Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “statistical model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Multifidelity validation of digital surrogates using variable-density turbulent mixing models

In this study, ensembles of experimental data are presented and utilized to compare and validate two models used in the simulation of variable-density (Atwood = 0.22), compressible turbulent mixing. Though models of this kind (Reynolds averaged NavierStokes and large-eddy simulations) have been validated extensively with more canonical flows in previous studies, here the present approach offers novelty in the complexity of the geometry, the ensemble-based validation, and the uniformity of the computational framework on which the models are tested. Moreover, all experimental and computational tasks were completed by the authors which has led to a tightly coupled experimental configuration with its “digital twin.” The experimental divergent-shock-tube facility and its data acquisition methods are described and replicated in simulation space. A 2D Euler model which neglects the turbulent mixing at the interface is optimized to experimental data using a Gaussian process. This model then serves as the basis for both the 2D RANS and 3D LES studies that make comparisons to the mixing-layer data from the experiment. A relatively simple RANS model is shown to produce good agreement with experimental data only at late flow development times. The LES ensembles generally show good agreement with experimental data but display sensitivity to the characterization of initial conditions. Resolution-dependent behavior is also observed for certain higher-order statistics of interest. Overall, the LES model successfully captures the effects of divergent geometry, compressibility, and combined nonlinear instabilities inherent to the problem. The successful prediction of mixing width and its growth rate highlight the existence of three distinct regimes in the development of the instability, each with similarities to previously studied instabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Estimating Leaf Area Index in Row Crops Using Wheel-Based and Airborne Discrete Return Light Detection and Ranging Data

Leaf area index (LAI) is an important variable for characterizing plant canopy in crop models. It is traditionally defined as the total one-sided leaf area per unit ground area and is estimated by both direct and indirect methods. This paper explores the effectiveness of using light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data to estimate LAI for sorghum and maize with different treatments at multiple times during the growing season from both a wheeled vehicle and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. Linear and nonlinear regression models are investigated for prediction utilizing statistical and plant structure-based features extracted from the LiDAR point cloud data with ground reference obtained from an in-field plant canopy analyzer (indirect method). Results based on the value of the coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) and root mean squared error for predictive models ranged from ∼0.4 in the early season to ∼0.6 for sorghum and ∼0.5 to 0.80 for maize from 40 Days after Sowing to harvest.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DESI mock challenge: Halo and galaxy catalogues with the bias assignment method

We present a novel approach to the construction of mock galaxy catalogues for large-scale structure analysis based on the distribution of dark matter halos obtained with effective bias models at the field level. We aim to produce mock galaxy catalogues capable of generating accurate covariance matrices for a number of cosmological probes that are expected to be measured in current and forthcoming galaxy redshift surveys (e.g. two- and three-point statistics). The construction of the catalogues shown in this paper is part of a mock-comparison project within the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) collaboration. We use the bias assignment method ( BAM ) to model the statistics of halo distribution through a learning algorithm using a few detailed N-body simulations, and approximated gravity solvers based on Lagrangian perturbation theory. We introduce cosmic-web-dependent corrections to modelling redshift-space distortions at the N-body level – both in the halo and galaxy distributions –, as well as a multi-scale approach for accurate assignment of halo properties. Using specific models of halo occupation distributions to populate halos, we generate galaxy mocks with the expected number density and central-satellite fraction of emission-line galaxies, which are a key target of the DESI experiment. BAM generates mock catalogues with per cent accuracy in a number of summary statistics, such as the abundance, the two- and three-point statistics of halo distributions, both in real and redshift space. In particular, the mock galaxy catalogues display ~3%-10% accuracy in the multipoles of the power spectrum up to scales of k ~ 0.4 h -1 Mpc. We show that covariance matrices of two- and three-point statistics obtained with BAM display a similar structure to the reference simulation. BAM offers an efficient way to produce mock halo catalogues with accurate two- and three-point statistics and is able to generate a variety of multi-tracer catalogues with precise covariance matrices of several cosmological probes. We discuss future developments of the algorithm towards mock production in DESI and other galaxy-redshift surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

HEPfit: a code for the combination of indirect and direct constraints on high energy physics models

HEPfit is a flexible open-source tool which, given the Standard Model or any of its extensions, allows to (i) fit the model parameters to a given set of experimental observables; (ii) obtain predictions for observables. HEPfit can be used either in Monte Carlo mode, to perform a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis of a given model, or as a library, to obtain predictions of observables for a given point in the parameter space of the model, allowing HEPfit to be used in any statistical framework. In the present version, around a thousand observables have been implemented in the Standard Model and in several new physics scenarios. In this paper, we describe the general structure of the code as well as models and observables implemented in the current release.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Multifidelity Approach to Sensitivity Estimation in Large-Eddy Simulation

A novel approach to compute affordable approximate sensitivities in a large-eddy simulation (LES) is proposed and assessed. The approach is based on solving a Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) problem that has been linearized around the mean LES solution, with closure modeling required for the linearized changes in turbulent Reynolds stresses. In the present study, the closure modeling is based on a linearized algebraic turbulence model. The method is assessed for the flow over a NACA0012 airfoil at a fixed angle of attack, with the Reynolds number as the variable parameter. The results show that, provided an accurate linearized closure model, the method predicts the correct sensitivity of the skin friction coefficient and the mean velocity field at the cost of a linearized RANS, which provides an important proof-of-concept for this approach. Here, the linearized algebraic turbulence model with standard model coefficients produces a reasonably accurate sensitivity, but the results also suggest that accuracy could be gained from recalibrating the model coefficients for this new use of the model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Mining Product Reviews for Important Product Features of Refurbished iPhones

Problem: Remanufacturers want to increase consumer interest in refurbished products, which motivates the need to understand which product features are important to buyers of refurbished products such as mobile phones. Research Questions: This study addresses two questions. First, which product features are most important for buyers of refurbished iPhones? Second, how do those preferences differ from the preferences of buyers of new iPhones? Methods: Online reviews of iPhones are obtained and converted into a document–term matrix. Using this text model, three subsets of features are identified using statistical analysis of frequency of mention: most frequent, average, and least frequent. A logistic regression (LR) model is then used to identify which features are most predictive of whether a review is for a new or refurbished phone. Results: Buyers of refurbished phones mention battery health, screen/display, shell condition, and brand significantly more often than other features. Directly contrasting reviews of refurbished versus new phones shows that shell condition, brand, speaker, and charger are found to be the most predictive product features indicated in reviews for refurbished phones. Of those, the shell condition is significantly more predictive than the others. Implications: The results identify product features that remanufacturers of iPhones can emphasize to increase customer demand.

Anisi, Atefeh↗

ComStock: Commercial Building Stock Energy Consumption Dataset

The commercial building sector stock model, or ComStock, is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States.

building↗

A machine learning model for predicting the minimum miscibility pressure of CO 2 and crude oil system based on a support vector machine algorithm approach

CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is a potential way for carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). Though, the effect of CO 2 injection is greatly influenced by the reservoir conditions. Typically, Minimum miscible pressure (MMP) is selected as one of the key parameters for the screening and evaluation of prospective CO 2 flooding. Conventional slim tube test is both accurate and widely accepted but it is inefficient. Existing empirical formulas for MMPs are easy to be used but have been proved inaccurate and unreliable. Machine learning-based methods have great advantages in predicting MMP. However, only predication accuracy is discussed for most models without the screening of the main control factors and further validation of the model reliability. In this paper, a new prediction model based on support vector machine (SVM) was developed for pure/impure CO 2 and crude oil system. This study was based on 147 sets of MMP data from the literature with full information on reservoir temperature, oil composition and gas composition. The main control factors were screened by several statistical methods. Unlike the conventional prediction models that verified by only prediction accuracy, learning curve and single factor control variable analysis are further validated to obtain the optimum model.

02 PETROLEUM↗

A hybrid calibration approach to Hertz-type contact parameters for discrete element models

This study aims at providing a hybrid calibration framework to estimate Hertz-type contact parameters (particle-scale shear modulus and Poisson ratio) for both two-dimensional and three-dimensional discrete element modelling (DEM). On the basis of statistically isotropic granular packings, a set of analytical formulae between macroscopic material parameters (Young modulus and Poisson ratio) and particle-scale Hertz-type contact parameters for granular systems are derived under small-strain isotropic stress conditions. However, the derived analytical solutions are only estimated values for general models. By viewing each DEM modelling as an implicit mathematical function taking the particle-level parameters as independent variables and employing the derived analytical solutions as the initial input parameters, an automatic iterative scheme is proposed to obtain the calibrated parameters with higher accuracies. Considering highly nonlinear features and discontinuities of the macro-micro relationship in Hertz-based discrete element models, the adaptive moment estimation algorithm is adopted in this study because of its capacity of dealing with noise gradients of cost functions. Here, the proposed method is validated with several numerical cases including randomly distributed monodisperse and polydisperse packings. Noticeable improvements in terms of calibration efficiency and accuracy have been made.

Constitutive law↗

Bi-fidelity variational auto-encoder for uncertainty quantification

Quantifying the uncertainty of quantities of interest (QoIs) from physical systems is a primary objective in model validation. However, achieving this goal entails balancing the need for computational efficiency with the requirement for numerical accuracy. To address this trade-off, we propose a novel bi-fidelity formulation of variational auto-encoders (BF-VAE) designed to estimate the uncertainty associated with a QoI from low-fidelity (LF) and high-fidelity (HF) samples of the QoI. Here, this model allows for the approximation of the statistics of the HF QoI by leveraging information derived from its LF counterpart. Specifically, we design a bi-fidelity auto-regressive model in the latent space which is integrated within the VAE’s probabilistic encoder–decoder structure. An effective algorithm is proposed to maximize the variational lower bound of the HF log-likelihood in the presence of limited HF data, resulting in the synthesis of HF realizations with a reduced computational cost. Additionally, we introduce the concept of the bi-fidelity information bottleneck (BF-IB) to provide an information-theoretic interpretation of the proposed BF-VAE model. Our numerical results demonstrate that the BF-VAE leads to considerably improved accuracy, as compared to a VAE trained using only HF data, when limited HF data is available.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Estimating reaction parameters in mechanism-enabled population balance models of nanoparticle size distributions: A Bayesian inverse problem approach

In order to quantitatively predict nano- as well as other particle-size distributions, one needs to have both a mathematical model and estimates of the parameters that appear in these models. Here, we show how one can use Bayesian inversion to obtain statistical estimates for the parameters that appear in recently derived mechanism-enabled population balance models (ME-PBM) of nanoparticle growth. The Bayesian approach addresses the question of “how well do we know our parameters, along with their uncertainties?.” The results reveal that Bayesian inversion statistical analysis on an example, prototype $\mathrm{lr(0)_n}$ nanoparticle formation system allows one to estimate not just the most likely rate constants and other parameter values, but also their SDs, confidence intervals, and other statistical information. Moreover, knowing the reliability of the mechanistic model's parameters in turn helps inform one about the reliability of the proposed mechanism, as well as the reliability of its predictions. Importantly, the paper can also be seen as a tutorial with the additional goal of achieving a “Gold Standard” Bayesian inversion ME-PBM benchmark that others can use as a control to check their own use of this methodology for other systems of interest throughout nature. Overall, the results provide strong support for the hypothesis that there is substantial value in using a Bayesian inversion methodology for parameter estimation in particle formation systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A machine learning approach for efficient multi-dimensional integration

Many physics problems involve integration in multi-dimensional space whose analytic solution is not available. The integrals can be evaluated using numerical integration methods, but it requires a large computational cost in some cases, so an efficient algorithm plays an important role in solving the physics problems. We propose a novel numerical multi-dimensional integration algorithm using machine learning (ML). After training a ML regression model to mimic a target integrand, the regression model is used to evaluate an approximation of the integral. Then, the difference between the approximation and the true answer is calculated to correct the bias in the approximation of the integral induced by ML prediction errors. Because of the bias correction, the final estimate of the integral is unbiased and has a statistically correct error estimation. Three ML models of multi-layer perceptron, gradient boosting decision tree, and Gaussian process regression algorithms are investigated. The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated on six different families of integrands that typically appear in physics problems at various dimensions and integrand difficulties. The results show that, for the same total number of integrand evaluations, the new algorithm provides integral estimates with more than an order of magnitude smaller uncertainties than those of the VEGAS algorithm in most of the test cases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Gravitational Microlensing Event Statistics for the Zwicky Transient Facility

Microlensing surveys have discovered thousands of events, with almost all events discovered within the Galactic bulge or toward the Magellanic Clouds. The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), while not designed to be a microlensing campaign, is an optical time-domain survey that observes the entire northern sky, including the Galactic plane, every few nights. The ZTF observes ~10 9 stars in the g and r bands and can significantly contribute to the observed microlensing population. In this paper, we predict that the ZTF will observe ~1100 microlensing events in 3 yr of observing within 10° latitude of the Galactic plane, with ~500 events in the outer Galaxy (ℓ ≥ 10°). This yield increases to ~1400 (~800) events by combining every three ZTF exposures, ~1800 (~900) events if the ZTF observes for a total of 5 yr, and ~2400 (~1300) events for a 5 yr survey with postprocessing image stacking. Using the microlensing modeling software PopSyCLE, we compare the microlensing populations in the Galactic bulge and the outer Galaxy. We also present an analysis of the microlensing event ZTF18abhxjmj to demonstrate how to leverage these population statistics in event modeling. The ZTF will constrain Galactic structure, stellar populations, and primordial black holes through photometric microlensing.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DESI 2024: reconstructing dark energy using crossing statistics with DESI DR1 BAO data

Here, we implement Crossing Statistics to reconstruct in a model-agnostic manner the expansion history of the universe and properties of dark energy, using DESI Data Release 1 (DR1) BAO data in combination with one of three different supernova compilations (PantheonPlus, Union3, and DES-SN5YR) and Planck CMB observations. Our results hint towards an evolving and emergent dark energy behaviour, with negligible presence of dark energy at z ≳ 1, at varying significance depending on data sets combined. In all these reconstructions, the cosmological constant lies outside the 95% confidence intervals for some redshift ranges. This dark energy behaviour, reconstructed using Crossing Statistics, is in agreement with results from the conventional w 0 –w a dark energy equation of state parametrization reported in the DESI Key cosmology paper. Our results add an extensive class of model-agnostic reconstructions with acceptable fits to the data, including models where cosmic acceleration slows down at low redshifts. We also report constraints on H 0 r d from our model-agnostic analysis, independent of the pre-recombination physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Projecting the number of new HIV infections to formulate the "Getting to Zero" strategy in Illinois, USA

Objectives: Getting to Zero (GTZ) initiatives focus on expanding use of antiretroviral treatment (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to eliminate new HIV infections. Computational models help inform policies for implementation of ART and PrEP continuums. Such models, however, vary in their design, and may yield inconsistent predictions. Using multiple approaches can help assess the consistency in results obtained from varied modeling frameworks, and can inform optimal implementation strategies. Methods: A study using three different modeling approaches is conducted. Two approaches use statistical time series analysis techniques that incorporate temporal HIV incidence data. A third approach uses stochastic stimulation, conducted using an agent-based network model (ABNM). All three approaches are used to project HIV incidence among a key population, young Black MSM (YBMSM), over the course of the GTZ implementation period (2016-2030). Results: All three approaches suggest that simultaneously increasing PrEP and ART uptake is likely to be more effective than increasing only one, but increasing ART and PrEP by 20% points may not eliminate new HIV infections among YBMSM. The results further suggest that a 20% increase in ART is likely to be more effective than a 20% increase in PrEP. All three methods consistently project that increasing ART and PrEP by 30% simultaneously can help reach GTZ goals. Conclusions: Increasing PrEP and ART uptake by about 30% might be necessary to accomplish GTZ goals. Such scale-up may require addressing psychosocial and structural barriers to engagement in HIV and PrEP care continuums. ABNMs and other flexible modeling approaches can be extended to examine specific interventions that address these barriers and may provide important data to guide the successful intervention implementation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Probabilistic Model for Global EMIC Wave Activity Using Van Allen Probes Observations

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves play a key role in radiation belt dynamics through resonant interactions. However, their low occurrence probability, high variability, and spatial intermittency pose challenges for accurate modeling. In this study, we present a machine learning (ML)-based global EMIC wave model built on the entire data set from the Van Allen Probes mission. To capture the distinct statistical characteristics of wave occurrence and amplitude, the model is separated into two modules: an occurrence model trained using ML techniques, and a wave amplitude model sampled from observed probability distributions. The input parameters are limited to real-time or predictable variables to ensure practical applicability. Our model shows strong performance across the entire test set and demonstrates improved predictive capability over a baseline random occurrence model, particularly during quiet geomagnetic conditions. Evaluation during both quiet and active periods confirms the model's ability to represent the clustered and intermittent nature of EMIC wave activity. Furthermore, the model provides global estimates of wave power, enabling integration with radiation belt electron data and showing signatures consistent with wave-induced scattering. We found a good correlation between the global wave activity from the model and relativistic electron observation by Van Allen Probes, regardless of the availability of in situ wave observations. The modular structure of the model also allows for straightforward expansion for additional wave properties, such as wave frequency, which can be modeled independently. This flexible, event-sensitive approach offers a promising framework for data-driven radiation belt simulations and space weather applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Analytical Bit-Error Model of NAND Flash Memories for Dosimetry Application

In this work, we provide an analytical model for the total ionizing dose (TID) effects on the bit error statistics of commercial flash memory chips. We have validated the model with experimental data collected by irradiating several commercial NAND flash memory chips from different technology nodes. We find that our analytical model can project bit errors at higher TID values (~ 20 krad(Si)) from measured data at lower TID values (<1 krad(Si)). Based on our model and the measured data, we have formulated basic design rules for using a commercial flash memory chip as a dosimeter. We discuss the impact of NAND chip-to-chip variability, noise margin and the intrinsic errors on the dosimeter design using detailed experimentation.

3-D NAND↗

A Search of the Full Six Years of the Dark Energy Survey for Outer Solar System Objects

We present a search for outer solar system objects in the 6 yr of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). The DES covered a contiguous 5000 deg 2 of the southern sky with ≈80,000 3 deg 2 exposures in the grizY filters between 2013 and 2019. This search yielded 812 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs), one Centaur and one Oort cloud comet, 458 reported here for the first time. We present methodology that builds upon our previous search on the first 4 yr of data. All images were reprocessed with an optimized detection pipeline that leads to an average completeness gain of 0.47 mag per exposure, as well as improved transient catalog production and algorithms for linkage of detections into orbits. All objects were verified by visual inspection and by the “sub-threshold significance,” the signal-to-noise ratio in the stack of images in which its presence is indicated by the orbit, but no detection was reported. This yields a pure catalog complete to r ≈ 23.8 mag and distances 29 < d < 2500 au. The TNOs have minimum (median) of 7 (12) nights’ detections and arcs of 1.1 (4.2) yr, and will have grizY magnitudes available in a further publication. We present software for simulating our observational biases for comparisons of models to our detections. Initial inferences demonstrating the catalog’s statistical power are: the data are inconsistent with the CFEPS-L7 model for the classical Kuiper Belt; the 16 “extreme” TNOs (a > 150 au, q > 30 au) are consistent with the null hypothesis of azimuthal isotropy; and nonresonant TNOs with q > 38 au, a > 50 au show a significant tendency to be sunward of major mean-motion resonances.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗