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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

New perspectives on superparameterization for geophysical turbulence

This is a research expository paper regarding superparameterization, a class of multi-scale numerical methods designed to cope with the intermittent multi-scale effects of inhomogeneous geophysical turbulence where energy often inverse-cascades from the unresolved scales to the large scales through the effects of waves, jets, vortices, and latent heat release from moist processes. Original as well as sparse space–time superparameterization algorithms are discussed for the important case of moist atmospheric convection including the role of multi-scale asymptotic methods in providing self-consistent constraints on superparameterization algorithms and related deterministic and stochastic multi-cloud parameterizations. Test models for the statistical numerical analysis of superparameterization algorithms are discussed both to elucidate the performance of the basic algorithms and to test their potential role in efficient multi-scale data assimilation. The very recent development of grid-free seamless stochastic superparameterization methods for geophysical turbulence appropriate for “eddy-permitting” mesoscale ocean turbulence is presented here including a general formulation and illustrative applications to two-layer quasigeostrophic turbulence, and another difficult test case involving one-dimensional models of dispersive wave turbulence. This last test case has randomly generated solitons as coherent structures which collapse and radiate wave energy back to the larger scales, resulting in strong direct and inverse turbulent energy cascades.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Damage imaging using Lamb waves for SHM applications

2-D ultrasonic arrays, due to their beam-steering capability and all azimuth angle coverage are a very promising tool for the inspection of plate-like structures using Lamb waves (LW). Contrary to the classical linear phased arrays (PAs) the 2D arrays enable unequivocal defect localization and they are even capable of mode selectivity of the received LWs . Recently, it has been shown that multistatic synthetic focusing (SF) algorithms applied for 2D arrays are much more effective than the classical phase array mode commonly used in NDT. The multistatic SF assumes multiple transmissions of elements in a transmitting aperture and off-line processing of the data acquired by a receiving aperture. In the simplest implementation of the technique, only a single multiplexed input and a number of output channels are required, which results in significant hardware simplification compared with the PA systems. On the one hand implementation of the multistatic SF to 2D arrays creates additional degrees of freedom during the design of the array topology, which complicates the array design process. On the other hand, it enables designing sparse arrays with performance similar to that of the fully populated dense arrays. In this paper we present a general systematic approach to the design and optimization of imaging systems based on the 2D array operating in the multistatic mode. We start from presenting principles of the SF schemes applied to LW imaging. Then, we outline the coarray concept and demonstrate how it can be used for reducing number of elements of the 2D arrays. Finally, efficient tools for the investigation and experimental verification of the designed 2D array prototypes are presented. The first step in the investigation is theoretical evaluation performed using frequency-dependent structure transfer function (STF), which enables approximate simulation of an array excited with a tone-burst in a dispersive medium. Finally, we show how scanning laser vibrometer, sensing waves in multiple points corresponding to the locations of the 2D receiving array elements, can be used as a tool for rapid experimental verification of the developed topologies. The presented methods are discussed in terms of the beampatterns and sparse versions of the fully populated array topologies are be presented. The effect of apodization applied to the array elements is also investigated. Both simulated and experimental results are included.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Compressed-sensing-based content-driven hierarchical reconstruction: Theory and application to C-arm cone-beam tomography

Purpose: This paper addresses the reconstruction of x-ray cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) for interventional C-arm systems. Subsampling of CBCT is a significant issue with C-arms due to their slow rotation and to the low frame rate of their flat panel x-ray detectors. The aim of this work is to propose a novel method able to handle the subsampling artifacts generally observed with analytical reconstruction, through a content-driven hierarchical reconstruction based on compressed sensing. Methods: The central idea is to proceed with a hierarchical method where the most salient features (high intensities or gradients) are reconstructed first to reduce the artifacts these features induce. These artifacts are addressed first because their presence contaminates less salient features. Several hierarchical schemes aiming at streak artifacts reduction are introduced for C-arm CBCT: the empirical orthogonal matching pursuit approach with the ℓ{sub 0} pseudonorm for reconstructing sparse vessels; a convex variant using homotopy with the ℓ{sub 1}-norm constraint of compressed sensing, for reconstructing sparse vessels over a nonsparse background; homotopy with total variation (TV); and a novel empirical extension to nonlinear diffusion (NLD). Such principles are implemented with penalized iterative filtered backprojection algorithms. For soft-tissue imaging, the authors compare the use of TV and NLD filters as sparsity constraints, both optimized with the alternating direction method of multipliers, using a threshold for TV and a nonlinear weighting for NLD. Results: The authors show on simulated data that their approach provides fast convergence to good approximations of the solution of the TV-constrained minimization problem introduced by the compressed sensing theory. Using C-arm CBCT clinical data, the authors show that both TV and NLD can deliver improved image quality by reducing streaks. Conclusions: A flexible compressed-sensing-based algorithmic approach is proposed that is able to accommodate for a wide range of constraints. It is successfully applied to C-arm CBCT images that may not be so well approximated by piecewise constant functions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Climate data, analysis and models for the study of natural variability and anthropogenic change

Gridded Temperature Under prior/current support, we completed and published (Jones et al., 2012) the fourth major update to our global land dataset of near-surface air temperatures, CRUTEM4. This is one of the most widely used records of the climate system, having been updated, maintained and further developed with DoE support since the 1980s. We have continued to update the CRUTEM4 (Jones et al., 2012) database that is combined with marine data to produce HadCRUT4 (Morice et al., 2012). The emphasis in our use of station temperature data is to access as many land series that have been homogenized by National Meteorological Services (NMSs, including NCDC/NOAA, Asheville, NC). Unlike the three US groups monitoring surface temperatures in a similar way, we do not infill areas that have no or missing data. We can only infill such regions in CRUTEM4 by accessing more station temperature series. During early 2014, we have begun the extensive task of updating as many of these series as possible using data provided by some NMSs and also through a number of research projects and programs around the world. All the station data used in CRUTEM4 have been available since 2009, but in Osborn and Jones (2014) we have made this more usable using a Google Earth interface (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/crutem/ge/ ). We have recently completed the update of our infilled land multi-variable dataset (CRU TS 3.10, Harris et al., 2014). This additionally produces complete land fields (except for the Antarctic) for temperature, precipitation, diurnal temperature range, vapour pressure and sunshine/cloud. Using this dataset we have calculated sc-PDSI (self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index) data and compared with other PDSI datasets (Trenberth et al., 2014). Also using CRU TS 3.10 and Reanalysis datasets, we showed no overall increase in global temperature variability despite changing regional patterns (Huntingford et al., 2013). Harris et al. (2014) is an update of an earlier dataset (Mitchell and Jones, 2005) which also had earlier DoE support. The earlier dataset has been cited over 1700 times according to ResearcherID on 31/July/2014 and the recent paper has already been cited 22 times. Analyses of Temperature Data Using the ERA-Interim estimate of the absolute surface air temperature of the Earth (instead of in the more normal form of anomalies) we compared the result against estimates we produced in 1999 with earlier DoE support. The two estimates are surprisingly close (differing by a couple of tenths of a degree Celsius), with the average temperature of the world (for 1981-2010) being very close to 14°C (Jones and Harpham, 2013). We have assessed ERA-Interim against station temperatures from manned and automatic weather station measurements across the Antarctic (Jones and Lister, 2014). Agreement is generally excellent across the Antarctic Peninsula and the sparsely sampled western parts of Antarctica. Differences tend to occur over eastern Antarctica where ERA-Interim is biased warm (up to 6°C) in the interior of the continent and biased cool (up to 6°C) for some of the coastal locations. Opportunities presented themselves during 2012 for collaborative work with a couple of Chinese groups. Three papers develop new temperature series for China as a whole and also for the eastern third of China (Wang et al., 2014, Cao et al., 2013 and Zhao et al., 2014). A dataset of ~400 daily Chinese temperature stations has been added to the CRU datasets. The latter paper finds that urban effects are generally about 10% of the long-term warming trend across eastern China. A fourth paper (Wang et al., 2013) illustrates issues with comparisons between reanalyses and surface temperatures across China, a method that has been widely used by some to suggest urban heating effects are much larger in the region. ERA-Interim can be used but NCEP/NCAR comparisons are very dependent on the period analysed. Earlier a new temperature dataset of homogenized records was developed for China (Li et al., 2009). Urbanization has also been addressed for London (Jones and Lister, 2009) where two rural sites have not warmed more than a city centre site since 1900. Additionally, in Ethymiadis and Jones (2010) we show that land air temperatures agree with marine data around coastal areas, further illustrating that urbanization is not a major component of large-scale surface air temperature change. Early instrumental data (before the development of modern thermometer screens) have always been suspected of being biased warm in summer, due to possible direct exposure to the sun. Two studies (Böhm et al., 2010 and Brunet et al., 2010) show this for the Greater Alpine Region (GAR) and for mainland Spain respectively. The issue is important before about 1870 in the GAR and before about 1900 in Spain. After correction for the problems, summer temperature estimates before these dates are cooler by about 0.4°C. In Jones and Wigley (2010), we discussed the importance of the biases in global temperature estimation. Exposure and to a lesser extent urbanization are the most important biases for the land areas, but both are dwarfed by the necessary adjustments for bucket SST measurements before about 1950. Individual station homogeneity is only important at the local scale. This was additionally illustrated by Hawkins and Jones (2013) where we replicated the temperature record developed by Guy Stewart Callendar in papers in 1938 and 1961. Analyses of Daily Climate Data Work here indicates that ERA-Interim (at least in Europe, Cornes and Jones, 2013, discussed in more detail in this proposal) can be used to monitor extremes (using the ETCCDI software – see Zhang et al., 2011). Additionally, also as a result of Chinese collaboration, a new method of daily temperature homogenization has been developed (Li et al., 2014). In Cornes and Jones (2011) we assessed storm activity in the northeast Atlantic region using daily gridded data. Even though the grid resolution is coarse (5° by 5° lat/long) the changes in storm activity are similar to those developed from the pressure triangle approach with station data. Analyses of humidity and pressure data In Simmons et al. (2010) we showed a reduction in relative humidity over low-latitude and mid-latitude land areas for the 10 years to 2008, based on monthly anomalies of surface air temperature and humidity from ECMWF reanalyses (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim) and our earlier land-only dataset (CRUTEM3) and synoptic humidity observations (HadCRUH). Updates of this station-based humidity dataset (now called HadISDH) extend the record, showing continued reductions (Willett et al., 2013). Analyses of Proxy Temperature Data In Vinther et al. (2010), relationships between the seasonal stable isotope data from Greenland Ice Cores and Greenland and Icelandic instrumental temperatures were investigated for the past 150-200 years. The winter season stable isotope data are found to be influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and very closely related to SW Greenland temperatures. The summer season stable isotope data display higher correlations with Icelandic summer temperatures and North Atlantic SST conditions than with local SW Greenland temperatures. In Jones et al. (2014) we use these winter isotope reconstructions to show the expected inverse correlation (due to the NAO) with winter-season documentary reconstructions from the Netherlands and Sweden over the last 800 years. Finally, in this section Jones et al. (2013) shows the agreement between tree-ring width measurements from Northern Sweden and Finland and an assessment of the link to explosive volcanic eruptions. An instrumental record for the region in the early 19th century indicates that the summer of 1816 was only slightly below normal, explaining why this year has normal growth for both ring width and density. GCM/RCM/Reanalysis Evaluation In this section we have intercompared daily temperature extremes across Europe in Cornes and Jones (2013) using station data, E-OBS and ERA-Interim. We have additionally considered the impact of the urban issue on the global scale using the results of the Compo et al. (2011) Reanalyses, 20CR. These only make use of SST and station pressure data. Across the world’s land areas, they indicate similar warming since 1900 to that which has occurred (Compo et al., 2013), again illustrating that urbanization is not the cause of the long-term warming. Changes in HadCRUH global land surface specific humidity and CRUTEM3 surface temperatures from 1973 to 1999 were compared to the CMIP3 archive of climate model simulations with 20th Century forcings (Willett et al., 2010). The models reproduce the magnitude of observed interannual variance over all large regions. Observed and modelled trends and temperature-humidity relationships are comparable with the exception of the extra-tropical Southern Hemisphere where observations exhibit no trend but models exhibit moistening.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coherent structures in wind shear induced wave–turbulence–vegetation interaction in water bodies

Flume experiments with particle imaging velocimetry (PIV) were conducted recently to study a complex flow problem where wind shear acts on the surface of a static water body in presence of flexible emergent vegetation and induces a rich dynamics of wave–turbulence–vegetation interaction inside the water body without any gravitational gradient. The experiments were aimed at mimicking realistic vegetated wetlands and the present work is targeted to improve the understanding of the coherent structures associated with this interaction by employing a combination of techniques such as quadrant analysis, proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), Shannon entropy and mutual information content (MIC). The turbulent transfer of momentum is found to be dominated by organized motions such as sweeps and ejections, while the wave component of vertical momentum transport does not show any such preference. Furthermore, by reducing the data using POD we see that wave energy for large flow depths and turbulent energy for all water depths is concentrated among the top few modes, which can allow development of simple reduced order models. Vegetation flexibility is found to induce several roll type structures, however if the vegetation density is increased, drag effects dominate over flexibility and organize the flow. The interaction between waves and turbulence is also found to be highest among flexible sparse vegetation. But, rapidly evolving parts of the flow such as the air–water interface reduces wave–turbulence interaction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Learning and meta-learning of stochastic advection–diffusion–reaction systems from sparse measurements

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) were recently proposed in [18] as an alternative way to solve partial differential equations (PDEs). A neural network (NN) represents the solution, while a PDE-induced NN is coupled to the solution NN, and all differential operators are treated using automatic differentiation. Here, we first employ the standard PINN and a stochastic version, sPINN, to solve forward and inverse problems governed by a non-linear advection–diffusion–reaction (ADR) equation, assuming we have some sparse measurements of the concentration field at random or pre-selected locations. Subsequently, we attempt to optimise the hyper-parameters of sPINN by using the Bayesian optimisation method (meta-learning) and compare the results with the empirically selected hyper-parameters of sPINN. In particular, for the first part in solving the inverse deterministic ADR, we assume that we only have a few high-fidelity measurements, whereas the rest of the data is of lower fidelity. Hence, the PINN is trained using a composite multi-fidelity network, first introduced in [12], that learns the correlations between the multi-fidelity data and predicts the unknown values of diffusivity, transport velocity and two reaction constants as well as the concentration field. For the stochastic ADR, we employ a Karhunen–Loève (KL) expansion to represent the stochastic diffusivity, and arbitrary polynomial chaos (aPC) to represent the stochastic solution. Correspondingly, we design multiple NNs to represent the mean of the solution and learn each aPC mode separately, whereas we employ a separate NN to represent the mean of diffusivity and another NN to learn all modes of the KL expansion. For the inverse problem, in addition to stochastic diffusivity and concentration fields, we also aim to obtain the (unknown) deterministic values of transport velocity and reaction constants. The available data correspond to 7spatial points for the diffusivity and 20 space–time points for the solution, both sampled 2000 times. We obtain good accuracy for the deterministic parameters of the order of 1–2% and excellent accuracy for the mean and variance of the stochastic fields, better than three digits of accuracy. In the second part, we consider the previous stochastic inverse problem, and we use Bayesian optimisation to find five hyper-parameters of sPINN, namely the width, depth and learning rate of two NNs for learning the modes. Here, we obtain much deeper and wider optimal NNs compared to the manual tuning, leading to even better accuracy, i.e., errors less than 1% for the deterministic values, and about an order of magnitude less for the stochastic fields.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Scaling Structured Multigrid to 500K+ Cores Through Coarse-Grid Redistribution

The effcient solution of sparse, linear systems resulting from the discretization of partial differential equations is crucial to the performance of many physics-based simulations. The algorithmic optimality of multilevel approaches for common discretizations makes them a good candidate for an efficient parallel solver. Yet, modern architectures for high-performance computing systems continue to challenge the parallel scalability of multilevel solvers. While algebraic multigrid methods are robust for solving a variety of problems, the increasing importance of data locality and cost of data movement in modern architectures motivates the need to carefully exploit structure in the problem. Robust logically structured variational multigrid methods, such as Black Box Multigrid (BoxMG), maintain structure throughout the multigrid hierarchy. This avoids indirection and increased coarse- grid communication costs typical in parallel algebraic multigrid. Nevertheless, the parallel scalability of structured multigrid is challenged by coarse-grid problems where the overhead in communication dominates computation. In this paper, an algorithm is introduced for redistributing coarse-grid problems through incremental agglomeration. Guided by a predictive performance model, this algorithm provides robust redistribution decisions for structured multilevel solvers. A two-dimensional diffusion problem is used to demonstrate the significant gain in performance of this algorithm over the previous approach that used agglomeration to one processor. In addition, the parallel scalability of this approach

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development of Thermal Tomography Imaging System for In-Service Nondestructive Evaluation of Additively Manufactured Components

Additive manufacturing (AM) is an emerging method for cost-efficient fabrication of nuclear reactor parts. AM of metallic structures for nuclear energy applications is currently based on laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process, which can introduce internal material flaws, such as pores and anisotropy. Integrity of AM structures needs to be evaluated nondestructively because material flaws could lead to premature failures due to exposure to high temperature, radiation and corrosive environment in a nuclear reactor. Thermal tomography (TT) provides a capability for non-destructive evaluation of sub-surface defects in arbitrary size structures. We investigate TT of AM stainless steel 316L specimen with imprinted internal porosity defects using relatively low-cost, small form factor infrared (IR) camera based on uncooled micro bolometer detector. Sparse coding related K-means singular value decomposition (SVD) machine learning, image processing algorithms are developed to improve quality of TT images through removal of Additive white Gaussian noise without blurring the images. Following initial qualification of an AM component for deployment in a nuclear reactor, a compact TT can also be used for in-service nondestructive evaluation (NDE). With capability to perform in-service NDE of the AM component lifecycle, TT data can be used for development of a component digital twin. MIT research reactor (MITR) has been identified as a representative environment to perform investigation of feasibility of in-service NDE during shutdown. Preliminary study of radiation level in the MITR viewport, with geometric parameters potentially compatible with compact TT system, has been conducted.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Probabilistic Autoencoder for Type Ia Supernova Spectral Time Series

We construct a physically parameterized probabilistic autoencoder (PAE) to learn the intrinsic diversity of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from a sparse set of spectral time series. The PAE is a two-stage generative model, composed of an autoencoder that is interpreted probabilistically after training using a normalizing flow. We demonstrate that the PAE learns a low-dimensional latent space that captures the nonlinear range of features that exists within the population and can accurately model the spectral evolution of SNe Ia across the full range of wavelength and observation times directly from the data. By introducing a correlation penalty term and multistage training setup alongside our physically parameterized network, we show that intrinsic and extrinsic modes of variability can be separated during training, removing the need for the additional models to perform magnitude standardization. We then use our PAE in a number of downstream tasks on SNe Ia for increasingly precise cosmological analyses, including the automatic detection of SN outliers, the generation of samples consistent with the data distribution, and solving the inverse problem in the presence of noisy and incomplete data to constrain cosmological distance measurements. We find that the optimal number of intrinsic model parameters appears to be three, in line with previous studies, and show that we can standardize our test sample of SNe Ia with an rms of 0.091 ± 0.010 mag, which corresponds to 0.074 ± 0.010 mag if peculiar velocity contributions are removed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Russian anthropogenic black carbon: Emission reconstruction and Arctic black carbon simulation

Development of reliable source emission inventories is needed to advance the understanding of the origin of Arctic haze using chemical transport modeling. This paper develops a regional anthropogenic black carbon (BC) emission inventory for the Russian Federation, the largest country by land area in the Arctic Council. Activity data from combination of local Russia information and international resources, emission factors based on either Russian documents or adjusted values for local conditions, and other emission source data are used to approximate the BC emissions. Emissions are gridded at a resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° and developed into a monthly temporal profile. Total anthropogenic BC emission of Russia in 2010 is estimated to be around 224 Gg. Gas flaring, a commonly ignored black carbon source, contributes a significant fraction of 36.2% to Russia's total anthropogenic BC emissions. Other sectors, i.e., residential, transportation, industry, and power plants, contribute 25.0%, 20.3%, 13.1%, and 5.4%, respectively. Three major BC hot spot regions are identified: the European part of Russia, the southern central part of Russia where human population densities are relatively high, and the Urals Federal District where Russia's major oil and gas fields are located but with sparse human population. BC simulations are conducted using the hemispheric version of Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model with emission inputs from a global emission database EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research)-HTAPv2 (Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution) and EDGAR-HTAPv2 with its Russian part replaced by the newly developed Russian BC emissions, respectively. The simulation using the new Russian BC emission inventory could improve 30–65% of absorption aerosol optical depth measured at the AERONET sites in Russia throughout the whole year as compared to that using the default HTAPv2 emissions. At the four ground monitoring sites (Zeppelin, Barrow, Alert, and Tiksi) in the Arctic Circle, surface BC simulations are improved the most during the Arctic haze periods (October–March). The poor performance of Arctic BC simulations in previous studies may be partly ascribed to the Russian BC emissions built on out-of-date and/or missing information, which could result in biases to both emission rates and the spatial distribution of emissions. Finally, this study highlights that the impact of Russian emissions on the Arctic haze has likely been underestimated, and its role in the Arctic climate system needs to be reassessed. The Russian black carbon emission source data generated in this study can be obtained via http://abci.ornl.gov/download.shtml or http://acs.engr.utk.edu/Data.php.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SDSS/SEGUE spectral feature analysis for stellar atmospheric parameter estimation

Large-scale and deep sky survey missions are rapidly collecting a large amount of stellar spectra, which necessitate the estimation of atmospheric parameters directly from spectra and make it feasible to statistically investigate latent principles in a large data set. We present a technique for estimating parameters T{sub eff}, log g, and [Fe/H] from stellar spectra. With this technique, we first extract features from stellar spectra using the LASSO algorithm; then, the parameters are estimated from the extracted features using the support vector regression. On a subsample of 20,000 stellar spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) with reference parameters provided by the SDSS/SEGUE Spectroscopic Parameter Pipeline, estimation consistency are 0.007458 dex for log T{sub eff} (101.609921 K for T{sub eff}), 0.189557 dex for log g, and 0.182060 for [Fe/H], where the consistency is evaluated by mean absolute error. Prominent characteristics of the proposed scheme are sparseness, locality, and physical interpretability. In this work, each spectrum consists of 3821 fluxes, and 10, 19, and 14 typical wavelength positions are detected, respectively, for estimating T{sub eff}, log g, and [Fe/H]. It is shown that the positions are related to typical lines of stellar spectra. This characteristic is important in investigating physical indications from analysis results. Then, stellar spectra can be described by the individual fluxes on the detected positions (PD) or local integration of fluxes near them (LI). The aforementioned consistency is the result based on features described by LI. If features are described by PD, consistency is 0.009092 dex for log T{sub eff} (124.545075 K for T{sub eff}), 0.198928 dex for log g, and 0.206814 dex for [Fe/H].

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

FLUXNET-CH 4 : a global, multi-ecosystem dataset and analysis of methane seasonality from freshwater wetlands

Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from natural landscapes constitute roughly half of global CH4 contributions to the atmosphere, yet large uncertainties remain in the absolute magnitude and the seasonality of emission quantities and drivers. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements of CH4 flux are ideal for constraining ecosystem-scale CH 4 emissions due to quasi-continuous and high-temporal-resolution CH 4 flux measurements, coincident carbon dioxide, water, and energy flux measurements, lack of ecosystem disturbance, and increased availability of datasets over the last decade. Here, we (1) describe the newly published dataset, FLUXNET-CH 4 Version 1.0, the first open-source global dataset of CH 4 EC measurements (available at https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet-ch4-community-product/, last access: 7 April 2021). FLUXNET-CH 4 includes half-hourly and daily gap-filled and non-gap-filled aggregated CH4 fluxes and meteorological data from 79 sites globally: 42 freshwater wetlands, 6 brackish and saline wetlands, 7 formerly drained ecosystems, 7 rice paddy sites, 2 lakes, and 15 uplands. Then, we (2) evaluate FLUXNET-CH 4 representativeness for freshwater wetland coverage globally because the majority of sites in FLUXNET-CH4 Version 1.0 are freshwater wetlands which are a substantial source of total atmospheric CH 4 emissions; and (3) we provide the first global estimates of the seasonal variability and seasonality predictors of freshwater wetland CH4 fluxes. Our representativeness analysis suggests that the freshwater wetland sites in the dataset cover global wetland bioclimatic attributes (encompassing energy, moisture, and vegetation-related parameters) in arctic, boreal, and temperate regions but only sparsely cover humid tropical regions. Seasonality metrics of wetland CH 4 emissions vary considerably across latitudinal bands. In freshwater wetlands (except those between 20°S to 20°N) the spring onset of elevated CH 4 emissions starts 3 d earlier, and the CH 4 emission season lasts 4 d longer, for each degree Celsius increase in mean annual air temperature. On average, the spring onset of increasing CH 4 emissions lags behind soil warming by 1 month, with very few sites experiencing increased CH 4 emissions prior to the onset of soil warming. In contrast, roughly half of these sites experience the spring onset of rising CH 4 emissions prior to the spring increase in gross primary productivity (GPP). The timing of peak summer CH 4 emissions does not correlate with the timing for either peak summer temperature or peak GPP. Our results provide seasonality parameters for CH 4 modeling and highlight seasonality metrics that cannot be predicted by temperature or GPP (i.e., seasonality of CH 4 peak). FLUXNET-CH 4 is a powerful new resource for diagnosing and understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems and climate drivers in the global CH 4 cycle, and future additions of sites in tropical ecosystems and site years of data collection will provide added value to this database. All seasonality parameters are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4672601 (Delwiche et al., 2021). Additionally, raw FLUXNET-CH 4 data used to extract seasonality parameters can be downloaded from https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet-ch4-community-product/ (last access: 7 April 2021), and a complete list of the 79 individual site data DOIs is provided in Table 2 of this paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions

We address the challenge, due to sparse observational records, of investigating long-term changes in the storm surge climate globally. We use two centennial and three satellite-era daily storm surge time series from the Global Storm Surge Reconstructions (GSSR) database and assess trends in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storm surge events at 320 tide gauges across the globe from 1930, 1950, and 1980 to present. Before calculating trends, we perform change point analysis to identify and remove data where inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalysis products could lead to spurious trends in the storm surge data. Even after removing unreliable data, the database still extends existing storm surge records by several decades for most of the tide gauges. Storm surges derived from the centennial 20CR and ERA-20C atmospheric reanalyses show consistently significant positive trends along the southern North Sea and the Kattegat Bay regions during the periods from 1930 and 1950 onwards and negative trends since 1980 period. When comparing all five storm surge reconstructions and observations for the overlapping 1980–2010 period we find overall good agreement, but distinct differences along some coastlines, such as the Bay of Biscay and Australia. We also assess changes in the frequency of extreme surges and find that the number of annual exceedances above the 95th percentile has increased since 1930 and 1950 in several regions such as Western Europe, Kattegat Bay, and the US East Coast.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

COVID-19 dynamics across the US: A deep learning study of human mobility and social behavior

This paper presents a deep learning framework for epidemiology system identification from noisy and sparse observations with quantified uncertainty. The proposed approach employs an ensemble of deep neural networks to infer the time-dependent reproduction number of an infectious disease by formulating a tensor-based multi-step loss function that allows us to efficiently calibrate the model on multiple observed trajectories. The method is applied to a mobility and social behavior-based SEIR model of COVID-19 spread. The model is trained on Google and Unacast mobility data spanning a period of 66 days, and is able to yield accurate future forecasts of COVID-19 spread in 203 US counties within a time-window of 15 days. Interestingly, a sensitivity analysis that assesses the importance of different mobility and social behavior parameters reveals that attendance of close places, including workplaces, residential, and retail and recreational locations, has the largest impact on the effective reproduction number. Furthermore, the model enables us to rapidly probe and quantify the effects of government interventions, such as lock-down and re-opening strategies. Taken together, the proposed framework provides a robust workflow for data-driven epidemiology model discovery under uncertainty and produces probabilistic forecasts for the evolution of a pandemic that can judiciously provide information for policy and decision making. All codes and data accompanying this manuscript are available at https://github.com/PredictiveIntelligenceLab/DeepCOVID19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Sparsely corrupted stimulated scattering signals recovery by iterative reweighted continuous basis pursuit

In this paper, we consider the problem of extracting the desired signals from noisy measurements. This is a classical problem of signal recovery which is of paramount importance in inertial confinement fusion. To accomplish this task, we develop a tractable algorithm based on continuous basis pursuit and reweighted ℓ{sub 1}-minimization. By modeling the observed signals as superposition of scale time-shifted copies of theoretical waveform, structured noise, and unstructured noise on a finite time interval, a sparse optimization problem is obtained. We propose to solve this problem through an iterative procedure that alternates between convex optimization to estimate the amplitude, and local optimization to estimate the dictionary. The performance of the method was evaluated both numerically and experimentally. Numerically, we recovered theoretical signals embedded in increasing amounts of unstructured noise and compared the results with those obtained through popular denoising methods. We also applied the proposed method to a set of actual experimental data acquired from the Shenguang-II laser whose energy was below the detector noise-equivalent energy. Both simulation and experiments show that the proposed method improves the signal recovery performance and extends the dynamic detection range of detectors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Expanding Lorentz and spectrum corrections to large volumes of reciprocal space for single-crystal time-of-flight neutron diffraction

Evidence is mounting that potentially exploitable properties of technologically and chemically interesting crystalline materials are often attributable to local structure effects, which can be observed as modulated diffuse scattering (mDS) next to Bragg diffraction (BD). BD forms a regular sparse grid of intense discrete points in reciprocal space. Traditionally, the intensity of each Bragg peak is extracted by integration of each individual reflection first, followed by application of the required corrections. In contrast, mDS is weak and covers expansive volumes of reciprocal space close to, or between, Bragg reflections. For a representative measurement of the diffuse scattering, multiple sample orientations are generally required, where many points in reciprocal space are measured multiple times and the resulting data are combined. The common post-integration data reduction method is not optimal with regard to counting statistics. A general and inclusive data processing method is needed. In this contribution, a comprehensive data analysis approach is introduced to correct and merge the full volume of scattering data in a single step, while correctly accounting for the statistical weight of the individual measurements. Development of this new approach required the exploration of a data treatment and correction protocol that includes the entire collected reciprocal space volume, using neutron time-of-flight or wavelength-resolved data collected at TOPAZ at the Spallation Neutron Source at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Feasibility of Vascular Parameter Estimation for Assessing Hypertensive Pregnancy Disorders

Abstract Hypertensive pregnancy disorders (HPDs), such as pre-eclampsia, are leading sources of both maternal and fetal morbidity in pregnancy. Noninvasive imaging, such as ultrasound (US) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), is an important tool for predicting and monitoring these high risk pregnancies. While imaging can measure hemodynamic parameters, such as uterine artery pulsatility and resistivity indices (PI and RI), the interpretation of such metrics for disease assessment relies on ad hoc standards, which provide limited insight to the physical mechanisms underlying the emergence of hypertensive pregnancy disorders. To provide meaningful interpretation of measured hemodynamic data in patients, advances in computational fluid dynamics can be brought to bear. In this work, we develop a patient-specific computational framework that combines Bayesian inference with a reduced-order fluid dynamics model to infer parameters, such as vascular resistance, compliance, and vessel cross-sectional area, known to be related to the development of hypertension. The proposed framework enables the prediction of hemodynamic quantities of interest, such as pressure and velocity, directly from sparse and noisy MRI measurements. We illustrate the effectiveness of this approach in two systemic arterial network geometries: an aorta with branching carotid artery and a maternal pelvic arterial network. For both cases, the model can reconstruct the provided measurements and infer parameters of interest. In the case of the maternal pelvic arteries, the model can make a distinction between the pregnancies destined to develop hypertension and those that remain normotensive, expressed through the value range of the predicted absolute pressure.

Biophysics↗

Understanding the Hierarchy of Dense Subgraphs in Stationary and Temporally Varying Setting

Graphs are widely used to model relationships in a wide variety of domains such as sociology, bioinformatics, infrastructure, the WWW, to name a few. One of the key observations is that while real-world graphs are often globally sparse, they are locally dense. In other words, the average degree is often quite small (say at most 10 in a million vertex graph), but vertex neighborhoods are often dense. Finding dense subgraphs is a critical aspect of graph mining It has been used for finding communities and spam link farms in web graphs, graph visualization, real-time story identification, DNA motif detection in biological networks, finding correlated genes, epilepsy prediction, finding price value motifs in financial data, graph compression, distance query indexing, and increasing the throughput of social networking site servers. However, most standard formulations of this problem (like clique, quasi-clique, k-densest subgraph) are NP-hard. Furthermore, current dense subgraph finding algorithms usually optimize some objective, and only find a few such subgraphs without providing any structural relations, whereas the goal is rarely to find the "true optimum," but to identify many (if not all) dense substructures, understand their distribution in the graph, and ideally determine relationships among them. In this project, we first aim to devise algorithms and provide 3 implementations with nice visualizations to find the hierarchy between dense subgraphs, and then understand the structure of the hierarchy to gain more insight on the hidden patterns in real-world networks. Another important aspects in graph analysis is the temporal nature of networks. Networks evolve over time and in many applications data arrives at a high velocity, and thus it is important to design algorithms that can process data efficiently. We report three main results towards identifying dense structures in large evolving graphs. First, we will show how the hierarchical connectedness structure can be maintained efficiently, where connectedness is defined by increasing levels of connectivity strength. Next, we present dense structure can be identified in bipartite graphs without building projection graphs. And finally, we present a new method for peeling algorithms This new approach avoids sequential nature of peeling algorithms and is amenable to parallelization, which is crucial for processing high velocity data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗