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NASA NTRS2016

Assessment of the SMAP Passive Soil Moisture Product

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite mission was launched on January 31, 2015. The observatory was developed to provide global mapping of high-resolution soil moisture and freeze-thaw state every two to three days using an L-band (active) radar and an L-band (passive) radiometer. After an irrecoverable hardware failure of the radar on July 7, 2015, the radiometer-only soil moisture product became the only operational Level 2 soil moisture product for SMAP. The product provides soil moisture estimates posted on a 36 kilometer Earth-fixed grid produced using brightness temperature observations from descending passes. Within months after the commissioning of the SMAP radiometer, the product was assessed to have attained preliminary (beta) science quality, and data were released to the public for evaluation in September 2015. The product is available from the NASA Distributed Active Archive Center at the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This paper provides a summary of the Level 2 Passive Soil Moisture Product (L2_SM_P) and its validation against in situ ground measurements collected from different data sources. Initial in situ comparisons conducted between March 31, 2015 and October 26, 2015, at a limited number of core validation sites (CVSs) and several hundred sparse network points, indicate that the V-pol Single Channel Algorithm (SCA-V) currently delivers the best performance among algorithms considered for L2_SM_P, based on several metrics. The accuracy of the soil moisture retrievals averaged over the CVSs was 0.038 cubic meter per cubic meter unbiased root-mean-square difference (ubRMSD), which approaches the SMAP mission requirement of 0.040 cubic meter per cubic meter.

passive↗
NASA NTRS2016

Mapping the Gas Turbulence in the Coma Cluster: Predictions for Astro-H

Astro-H will be able for the first time to map gas velocities and detect turbulence in galaxy clusters. One of the best targets for turbulence studies is the Coma cluster, due to its proximity, absence of a cool core, and lack of a central active galactic nucleus. To determine what constraints Astro-H will be able to place on the Coma velocity field, we construct simulated maps of the projected gas velocity and compute the second-order structure function, an analog of the velocity power spectrum. We vary the injection scale, dissipation scale, slope, and normalization of the turbulent power spectrum, and apply measurement errors and finite sampling to the velocity field. We find that even with sparse coverage of the cluster, Astro-H will be able to measure the Mach number and the injection scale of the turbulent power spectrum-the quantities determining the energy flux down the turbulent cascade and the diffusion rate for everything that is advected by the gas (metals, cosmic rays, etc.). Astro-H will not be sensitive to the dissipation scale or the slope of the power spectrum in its inertial range, unless they are outside physically motivated intervals. We give the expected confidence intervals for the injection scale and the normalization of the power spectrum for a number of possible pointing configurations, combining the structure function and velocity dispersion data. Importantly, we also determine that measurement errors on the line shift will bias the velocity structure function upward, and show how to correct this bias.

clusters: intracluster medium↗
NASA NTRS2017

Crater Morphometry and Crater Degradation on Mercury: Mercury Laser Altimeter (MLA) Measurements and Comparison to Stereo-DTM Derived Results

Two types of measurements of Mercury's surface topography were obtained by the MESSENGER (MErcury Surface Space ENvironment, GEochemisty and Ranging) spacecraft: laser ranging data from Mercury Laser Altimeter (MLA) [1], and stereo imagery from the Mercury Dual Imaging System (MDIS) camera [e.g., 2, 3]. MLA data provide precise and accurate elevation meaurements, but with sparse spatial sampling except at the highest northern latitudes. Digital terrain models (DTMs) from MDIS have superior resolution but with less vertical accuracy, limited approximately to the pixel resolution of the original images (in the case of [3], 15-75 m). Last year [4], we reported topographic measurements of craters in the D=2.5 to 5 km diameter range from stereo images and suggested that craters on Mercury degrade more quickly than on the Moon (by a factor of up to approximately 10×). However, we listed several alternative explanations for this finding, including the hypothesis that the lower depth/diameter ratios we observe might be a result of the resolution and accuracy of the stereo DTMs. Thus, additional measurements were undertaken using MLA data to examine the morphometry of craters in this diameter range and assess whether the faster crater degradation rates proposed to occur on Mercury is robust.

morphometry↗
NASA NTRS2017

Shallow Lunar Seismic Activity and the Current Stress State of the Moon

A vast, global network of more than 3200 lobate thrust fault scarps has been revealed in high resolution Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) images. The fault scarps very young, less than 50 Ma, based on their small scale and crisp appearance, crosscutting relations with small-diameter impact craters, and rates of infilling of associated small, shallow graben and may be actively forming today. The population of young thrust fault scarps provides a window into the recent stress state of the Moon and offers insight into the origin of global lunar stresses. The distribution of orientations of the fault scarps is non-random, inconsistent with isotropic stresses from late-stage global contraction as the sole source of stress Modeling shows that tidal stresses contribute significantly to the current stress state of the lunar crust. Tidal stresses (orbital recession and diurnal tides) superimposed on stresses from global contraction result in non-isotropic compressional stress and thrust faults consistent with lobate scarp orientations. Stresses due to orbital recession do not change with orbital position, thus it is with the addition of diurnal stresses that peak stresses are reached. At apogee, diurnal and recession stresses are most compressive near the tidal axis, while at perigee they are most compressive 90 degrees away from the tidal axis. Coseismic slip events on currently active thrust faults are expected to be triggered when peak stresses are reached. Analysis of the timing of the 28 the shallow moonquakes recorded by the Apollo seismic network shows that 19 indeed occur when the Moon is closer to apogee, while only 9 shallow events occur when the Moon is closer to perigee. Here we show the results of relocating the shallow moonquake using an algorithm designed for sparse networks to better constrain their epicentral locations in order to compare them with stress models. The model for the current stress state of the Moon is refined by investigating the contribution of polar wander.

siesmology↗
NASA NTRS2016

Achieving Consistent Doppler Measurements from SDO/HMI Vector Field Inversions

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory is delivering vector magnetic field observations of the full solar disk with unprecedented temporal and spatial resolution; however, the satellite is in a highly inclined geosynchronous orbit. The relative spacecraft-Sun velocity varies by +/-3 kms−1 over a day, which introduces major orbital artifacts in the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) data. We demonstrate that the orbital artifacts contaminate all spatial and temporal scales in the data. We describe a newly developed three-stage procedure for mitigating these artifacts in the Doppler data obtained from the Milne-Eddington inversions in the HMI pipeline. The procedure ultimately uses 32 velocity-dependent coefficients to adjust 10 million pixels-a remarkably sparse correction model given the complexity of the orbital artifacts. This procedure was applied to full-disk images of AR 11084 to produce consistent Dopplergrams. The data adjustments reduce the power in the orbital artifacts by 31 dB. Furthermore, we analyze in detail the corrected images and show that our procedure greatly improves the temporal and spectral properties of the data without adding any new artifacts. We conclude that this new procedure makes a dramatic improvement in the consistency of the HMI data and in its usefulness for precision scientific studies.

Schuck, Peter W.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Shallow Lunar Seismic Activity and the Current Stress State of the Moon

A vast, global network of more than 3200 lobate thrust fault scarps has been revealed in high resolution Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) images. The fault scarps are very young, less than 50 Ma, based on their small scale and crisp appearance, crosscutting relations with small-diameter impact craters, and rates of infilling of associated small, shallow graben and may be actively forming today. The population of young thrust fault scarps provides a window into the recent stress state of the Moon and offers insight into the origin of global lunar stresses. The distribution of orientations of the fault scarps is non-random, inconsistent with isotropic stresses from late-stage global contraction as the sole source of stress. Modeling shows that tidal stresses contribute significantly to the current stress state of the lunar crust. Tidal stresses (orbital recession and diurnal tides) superimposed on stresses from global contraction result in non-isotropic compressional stress and may produce thrust faults consistent with lobate scarp orientations. At any particular point on the lunar surface, peak compressive stress will be reached at a certain time in the diurnal cycle. Coseismic slip events on currently active thrust faults are expected to be triggered when peak stresses are reached. Analysis of the timing of the 28 the shallow moonquakes recorded by the Apollo seismic network shows that 19 indeed occur when the Moon is closer to apogee, while only 9 shallow events occur when the Moon is closer to perigee. Here we report efforts to refine the model for the current stress state of the Moon by investigating the contribution of polar wander. Progress on relocating the epicentral locations of the shallow moonquakes using an algorithm designed for sparse networks is also reported.

structure↗
NASA NTRS2016

Spatio-Temporal Variability of Groundwater Storage in India

Groundwater level measurements from 3907 monitoring wells, distributed within 22 major river basins of India, are assessed to characterize their spatial and temporal variability. Ground water storage (GWS) anomalies (relative to the long-term mean) exhibit strong seasonality, with annual maxima observed during the monsoon season and minima during pre-monsoon season. Spatial variability of GWS anomalies increases with the extent of measurements, following the power law relationship, i.e., log-(spatial variability) is linearly dependent on log-(spatial extent).In addition, the impact of well spacing on spatial variability and the power law relationship is investigated. We found that the mean GWS anomaly sampled at a 0.25 degree grid scale closes to unweighted average over all wells. The absolute error corresponding to each basin grows with increasing scale, i.e., from 0.25 degree to 1 degree. It was observed that small changes in extent could create very large changes in spatial variability at large grid scales. Spatial variability of GWS anomaly has been found to vary with climatic conditions. To our knowledge, this is the first study of the effects of well spacing on groundwater spatial variability. The results may be useful for interpreting large scale groundwater variations from unevenly spaced or sparse groundwater well observations or for siting and prioritizing wells in a network for groundwater management. The output of this study could be used to maintain a cost effective groundwater monitoring network in the study region and the approach can also be used in other parts of the globe.

Groundwater monitoring↗
NASA NTRS2016

Deep HST/STIS Visible-Light Imaging of Debris Systems Around Solar Analog Hosts

We present new Hubble Space Telescope observations of three a priori known starlight-scattering circumstellar debris systems (CDSs) viewed at intermediate inclinations around nearby close-solar analog stars: HD 207129, HD202628, and HD 202917. Each of these CDSs possesses ring-like components that are more massive analogs of our solar systems Edgeworth Kuiper Belt. These systems were chosen for follow-up observations to provide imaging with higher fidelity and better sensitivity for the sparse sample of solar-analog CDSs that range over two decades in systemic ages, with HD 202628 and HD 207129 (both approx. 2.3 Gyr) currently the oldest CDSs imaged in visible or near-IR light. These deep (10-14 ks) observations, made with six-roll point-spread-function template visible-light coronagraphy using the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph, were designed to better reveal their angularly large debris rings of diffuse low surface brightness, and for all targets probe their exo-ring environments for starlight-scattering materials that present observational challenges for current ground-based facilities and instruments. Contemporaneously also observing with a narrower occulter position, these observations additionally probe the CDS endo-ring environments that are seen to be relatively devoid of scatterers. We discuss the morphological, geometrical, and photometric properties of these CDSs also in the context of other CDSs hosted by FGK stars that we have previously imaged as a homogeneously observed ensemble. From this combined sample we report a general decay in quiescent-disk F disk /F star optical brightness approx. t( exp.-0.8), similar to what is seen at thermal IR wavelengths, and CDSs with a significant diversity in scattering phase asymmetries, and spatial distributions of their starlight-scattering grains.

starlight-scattering circumstellar debris systems ↗
NASA NTRS2017

Coastal California's Fog as a Unique Habitable Niche: Design for Autonomous Sampling and Preliminary Aerobiological Characterization

Just as on the land or in the ocean, atmospheric regions may be more or less hospitable to life. The aerobiosphere, or collection of living things in Earth's atmosphere, is poorly understood due to the small number and ad hoc nature of samples studied. However, we know viable airborne microbes play important roles, such as providing cloud condensation nuclei. Knowing the distribution of such microorganisms and how their activity can alter water, carbon, and other geochemical cycles is key to developing criteria for planetary habitability, particularly for potential habitats with wet atmospheres but little stable surface water. Coastal California has regular, dense fog known to play a major transport role in the local ecosystem. In addition to the significant local (1 km) geographical variation in typical fog, previous studies have found that changes in height above surface of as little as a few meters can yield significant differences in typical concentrations, populations and residence times. No single current sampling platform (ground-based impactors, towers, balloons, aircraft) is capable of accessing all of these regions of interest.A novel passive fog and cloud water sampler, consisting of a lightweight passive impactor suspended from autonomous aerial vehicles (UAVs), is being developed to allow 4D point sampling within a single fog bank, allowing closer study of small-scale (100 m) system dynamics. Fog and cloud droplet water samples from low-altitude aircraft flights in nearby coastal waters were collected and assayed to estimate the required sample volumes, flight times, and sensitivity thresholds of the system under design.125 cloud water samples were collected from 16 flights of the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS) instrumented Twin Otter, equipped with a sampling tube collector, occurring between 18 July and 12 August 2016 below 1 km altitude off the central coast. The collector was flushed first with 70 ethanol, then with sterile DI water, between sampling regions. Collected volumes ranged from 100 L to 12 mL. All samples were diluted serially and plated on two different types of agar, nutrient-dense (PCA) and sparse (R-2A). Plates were incubated at room temperature and counted when colonies first appeared and again at 2 weeks.Preliminary results from seven flights are consistent with generally reported colony-forming unit (CFU) values for terrestrial fog water (e.g., [4]). The PCA assay ranged from 400 to 125,000 CFU/mL, R-2A from 700 to 130,000 CFU/mL. PCA and R-2A counts were not significantly different from each other at I^ plus or minus +/- 0.05, although observationally, the R2A plates had more pigmented colonies. CFU counts from the majority of flights were not different from each other in mean at the same level of significance, but about half differed in median, indicating differences in underlying distribution. These results validate the presence of viable microorganisms in coastal California fog at levels that should be easily detectable by our sampling system. The indicated distribution differences underscore the need for small-scale, long-term sampling surveys. Future planned work includes ion chromatography for limiting nutrients, ATP quantification, and qPCR for several microbial classes of interest.

Coastal↗
NASA NTRS2017

Numerical and Analytical Assessment of a Coupled Rotating Detonation Engine and Turbine Experiment

An analysis is presented of an experimental rig comprising a rotating detonation engine (RDE) with bypass ejector flow coupled to a downstream turbine. The analysis used a validated computational fluid dynamics RDE simulation combined with straightforward algebraic mixing equations for the bypass flow. The objectives of the analysis were to supplement and interpret the necessarily sparse measurements from the rig, and to assess the performance of the RDE itself, which was not instrumented in this installation. The analysis is seen to agree reasonably well with available data. It shows that the RDE is operating in an unusual fashion, with subsonic flow throughout the exhaust plane. The detonation event itself is producing a total pressure rise relative to the pre-detonative pressure; however, the length of the device and the substantial flow restriction at the inlet yield an overall pressure loss. This is not surprising since the objective of the rig test was primarily aimed at investigating RDE turbine interactions, and not on performance optimization. Furthermore, the RDE was designed for fundamental detonation studies and not performance. Nevertheless, the analysis indicates that with some small alterations to the design, an RDE with an overall pressure rise is possible.

propulsion↗
NASA NTRS2017

Implicit Formulation of Muscle Dynamics in OpenSim

Astronauts lose bone and muscle mass during spaceflight. Exercise countermeasure is the primary method for counteracting bone and muscle mass loss in space. New spacecraft exercise device concepts are currently being developed for the NASAs new crew exploration vehicle. The NASA Digital Astronaut Project (DAP) uses computational modeling to help determine if the new exercise devices will be effective as countermeasures. The NASA Digital Astronaut Project is developing the ability to utilize predictive simulation to provide insight into the change in kinematics and kinetics with a change in device and gravitational environment (1-g versus 0-g). For example, in space exercise the subject's body weight is applied in addition to the loads prescribed for musculoskeletal maintenance. How and where these loads are applied obviously directly impacts bone and tissue loads. Additionally, due to space vehicle structural requirements, exercise devices are often placed on vibration isolation systems. This changes the apparent impedance or stiffness of the device as seen by the user. Data collection under these conditions is often impractical and limited. Predictive modeling provides a means to have a virtual subject to test hypotheses. Predictive simulation provides a virtual subject for which we are able to perform studies such as sensitivity to device loading and vibration isolation without the need for laboratory kinematic or kinetic test data.Direct Collocation optimization provides an efficient means to perform task based optimization and predictive modeling. It is relatively straight forward to structure a physical exercise task in a Direct Collocation mathematical formulation: perform a motion such that you start at an initial pose, achieve a given amount of deflection i.e a squat, return to the initial pose, and minimize muscle activation cost. Direct Collocation is advantageous in that it does not require numerical integration to evaluate the objective function. Instead, the system dynamics are transformed to discrete time and the optimizer is constrained such that the solution is not considered to be a valid unless the dynamic equations are satisfied at all time points. The simulation and optimization are effectively done simultaneously. Due to the implicit integration, time steps can be more coarse than in a differential equation solver. In a gait scenario this means that that the model constraints and cost function are evaluated at 100 nodes in the gait cycle versus 10,000 integration steps in a variable-step forward dynamic simulation. Furthermore, no time is wasted on accurate simulations of movements that are far from the optimum. Constrained optimization algorithms require a Jacobian matrix that contains the partial derivatives of each of the dynamic constraints with respect to of each of the state and control variables at all time points. This is a large but sparse matrix. An implicit dynamics formulation requires computation of the dynamic residuals f as a function of the states x and their derivatives, and controls u:f(x, dxdt, u) 0If the dynamics of musculoskeletal system are formulated implicitly, the Jacobian elements are often available analytically, eliminating the need for numerical differentiation; this is obviously computationally advantageous. Additionally, implicit formulation of musculoskeletal dynamics do not suffer from singularities from low mass bodies, zero muscle activation, or other stiff system or

physical exercise↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Case for Nebula Scale Mixing Between Non-Carbonaceous and Carbonaceous Chondrite Reservoirs: Testing the Grand Tack Model with Chromium Isotopic Composition of Almahata Sitta Stone 91A

There is an increasing number of Cr-O-Ti isotope studies that show solar system materials are divided into two main populations, one carbonaceous chondrite (CC)-like and the other is non-carbonaceous (NC)-like, with minimal mixing attributed to a gap opened in the protoplanetary disk due to Jupiter's formation. The Grand Tack model suggests there should be large-scale mixing between S- and C-type asteroids, an idea supported by our recent work on chondrule (Delta)17O-ε54Cr isotope systematics. The Almahata Sitta (AhS) meteorite provides a unique opportunity to test the Grand Tack model. The meteorite fell to Earth in October 2008 and has been linked to the asteroid 2008 TC3 which was discovered just prior to the fall of the AhS stones. The AhS meteorite is composed of up to 700 individual pieces with approx.140 of those pieces having some geochemical and/or petrologic studies. Almahata Sitta is an anomalous polymict ureilite with other meteorite components, including enstatite, ordinary, and carbonaceous chondrites with an approximate abundance of 70% ureilites and 30% chondrites. This observation has lead to the suggestion that TC3 2008 was a loosely aggregated rubble pile-like asteroid with the non-ureilite sample clasts within the rubble-pile. Due to the loosely-aggregated nature of AhS, the object disintegrated during atmospheric entry resulting in the weakly held clasts falling predominantly as individual stones in the AhS collection area. However, recent work has identified one sample of AhS, sample 91A, which may represent two different lithologies coexisting within a single stone. The predominate lithology type in 91A appears to be that of a C2 chondrite based on mineralogy but also contains olivine, pyroxene, and albite that have ureilite-like compositions. Previous Cr isotope investigations into AhS stones are sparse and what data is available show nearly uniform isotopic composition similar to that of typical ureilites with negative ε54Cr values.

Sanborn, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS2017

UTM TCL2 Software Requirements

The Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) Technical Capability Level (TCL) 2 software implements the UTM TCL 2 software requirements described herein. These software requirements are linked to the higher level UTM TCL 2 System Requirements. Each successive TCL implements additional UTM functionality, enabling additional use cases. TCL 2 demonstrated how to enable expanded multiple operations by implementing automation for beyond visual line-of-sight, tracking operations, and operations flying over sparsely populated areas.

Smith, Irene S.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Beyond 3 Au from the Sun: the Hypervolatiles CH4, C2H6, and CO in the Distant Comet C2006 W3 (Christensen)

Comet C/2006 W3 (Christensen) remained outside a heliocentric distance (Rh) of 3.1 au throughout its apparition, but it presented an exceptional opportunity to directly sense a suite of molecules released from its nucleus. The Cryogenic Infrared Echelle Spectrograph at ESO-VLT detected infrared emissions from the three hypervolatiles (CO, CH4, and C2H6) that have the lowest sublimation temperatures among species that are commonly studied in comets by remote sensing. Even at Rh 3.25 au, the production rate of each molecule exceeded those measured for the same species in a number of other comets, although these comets were observed much closer to the Sun. Detections of CO at Rh = 3.25, 4.03, and 4.73 au constrained its post-perihelion decrease in production rate, which most likely dominated the outgassing. At 3.25 au, our measured abundances scaled as CO/CH4/C2H6 approx. = 100/4.4/2.1. The C2H6/CH4 ratio falls within the range of previously studied comets at Rh < 2 au, while CO/CH4 is comparatively high and similar to in situ measurements from Rosetta at approx.10 km from the nucleus of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko conducted at a very similar Rh (3.15 au). The independent detections of H2O (Herschel Space Observatory) and CO (this work) imply a coma abundance H2O/CO approx. = 20% in C/2006 W3 near Rh = 5 au. All these measurements are of high value for constraining models of nucleus sublimation (plausibly CO-driven) beyond Rh = 3au, where molecular detections in comets are still especially sparse.

Bonev, Boncho P.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Aerosol Sampling Experiment on the International Space Station

The International Space Station (ISS) is a unique indoor environment which serves as both home and workplace to the astronaut crew. There is currently no particulate monitoring, although particulate matter requirements exist. An experiment to collect particles in the ISS cabin was conducted recently. Two different aerosol samplers were used for redundancy and to collect particles in two size ranges spanning from 10 nm to hundreds of micrometers. The Active Sampler is a battery operated thermophoretic sampler with an internal pump which draws in air and collects particles directly on a transmission electron microscope grid. This commercial-off-the-shelf device was modified for operation in low gravity. The Passive Sampler has five sampling surfaces which were exposed to air for different durations in order to collect at least one sample with an optimal quantity of particles for microscopy. These samples were returned to Earth for analysis with a variety of techniques to obtain long-term average concentrations and identify particle emission sources. Results are compared with the inventory of ISS aerosols which was created based on sparse data and the literature. The goal of the experiment is to obtain data on indoor aerosols on ISS for future particulate monitor design and development.

Aerosol↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Updated Process for Automated Deepspace Conjunction Assessment

There is currently a high level of interest in the areas of conjunction assessment and collision avoidance from organizations conducting space operations. Current conjunction assessment activity is mainly focused on spacecraft and debris in the Earth orbital environment [1]. However, collisions are possible in other orbital environments as well [2]. This paper will focus on the current operations of and recent updates to the Multimission Automated Deep Space Conjunction Assessment Process (MADCAP) used at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory for NASA to perform conjunction assessment at Mars and the Moon. Various space agencies have satellites in orbit at Mars and the Moon with additional future missions planned. The consequences of collisions are catastrophically high. Intuitive notions predict low probability of collisions in these sparsely populated environments, but may be inaccurate due to several factors. Orbits of scientific interest often tend to have similar characteristics as do the orbits of spacecraft that provide a communications relay for surface missions. The MADCAP process is controlled by an automated scheduler which initializes analysis based on a set timetable or the appearance of new ephemeris files either locally or on the Deep Space Network (DSN) Portal. The process then generates and communicates reports which are used to facilitate collision avoidance decisions. The paper also describes the operational experience and utilization of the automated tool during periods of high activity and interest such as: the close approaches of NASA's Lunar Atmosphere & Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) during the LADEE mission. In addition, special consideration was required for the treatment of missions with rapidly varying orbits and less reliable long term downtrack estimates; in particular this was necessitated by perturbations to MAVEN's orbit induced by the Martian atmosphere. The application of special techniques to non-operational spacecraft with large uncertainties is also studied. Areas for future work are also described. Although the applications discussed in this paper are in the Martian and Lunar environments, the techniques are not unique to these bodies and could be applied to other orbital environments.

collision↗
NASA NTRS2017

Coupled Data Assimilation for Integrated Earth System Analysis and Prediction: Goals, Challenges, and Recommendations

The purpose of this report is to identify fundamental issues for coupled data assimilation (CDA), such as gaps in science and limitations in forecasting systems, in order to provide guidance to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on how to facilitate more rapid progress internationally. Coupled Earth system modeling provides the opportunity to extend skillful atmospheric forecasts beyond the traditional two-week barrier by extracting skill from low-frequency state components such as the land, ocean, and sea ice. More generally, coupled models are needed to support seamless prediction systems that span timescales from weather, subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), multiyear, and decadal. Therefore, initialization methods are needed for coupled Earth system models, either applied to each individual component (called Weakly Coupled Data Assimilation - WCDA) or applied the coupled Earth system model as a whole (called Strongly Coupled Data Assimilation - SCDA). Using CDA, in which model forecasts and potentially the state estimation are performed jointly, each model domain benefits from observations in other domains either directly using error covariance information known at the time of the analysis (SCDA), or indirectly through flux interactions at the model boundaries (WCDA). Because the non-atmospheric domains are generally under-observed compared to the atmosphere, CDA provides a significant advantage over single-domain analyses. Next, we provide a synopsis of goals, challenges, and recommendations to advance CDA: Goals: (a) Extend predictive skill beyond the current capability of NWP (e.g. as demonstrated by improving forecast skill scores), (b) produce physically consistent initial conditions for coupled numerical prediction systems and reanalyses (including consistent fluxes at the domain interfaces), (c) make best use of existing observations by allowing observations from each domain to influence and improve the full earth system analysis, (d) develop a robust observation-based identification and understanding of mechanisms that determine the variability of weather and climate, (e) identify critical weaknesses in coupled models and the earth observing system, (f) generate full-field estimates of unobserved or sparsely observed variables, (g) improve the estimation of the external forcings causing changes to climate, (h) transition successes from idealized CDA experiments to real-world applications. Challenges: (a) Modeling at the interfaces between interacting components of coupled Earth system models may be inadequate for estimating uncertainty or error covariances between domains, (b) current data assimilation methods may be insufficient to simultaneously analyze domains containing multiple spatiotemporal scales of interest, (c) there is no standardization of observation data or their delivery systems across domains, (d) the size and complexity of many large-scale coupled Earth system models makes it is difficult to accurately represent uncertainty due to model parameters and coupling parameters, (e) model errors lead to local biases that can transfer between the different Earth system components and lead to coupled model biases and long-term model drift, (e) information propagation across model components with different spatiotemporal scales is extremely complicated, and must be improved in current coupled modeling frameworks, (h) there is insufficient knowledge on how to represent evolving errors in non-atmospheric model components (e.g. as sea ice, land and ocean) on the timescales of NWP.

CDA↗
NASA NTRS2017

Augmented Method to Improve Thermal Data for the Figure Drift Thermal Distortion Predictions of the JWST OTIS Cryogenic Vacuum Test

The JWST Optical Telescope Element (OTE) assembly is the largest optically stable infrared-optimized telescope currently being manufactured and assembled, and is scheduled for launch in 2018. The JWST OTE, including the 18 segment primary mirror, secondary mirror, and the Aft Optics Subsystem (AOS) are designed to be passively cooled and operate near 45K. These optical elements are supported by a complex composite backplane structure. As a part of the structural distortion model validation efforts, a series of tests are planned during the cryogenic vacuum test of the fully integrated flight hardware at NASA JSC Chamber A. The successful ends to the thermal-distortion phases are heavily dependent on the accurate temperature knowledge of the OTE structural members. However, the current temperature sensor allocations during the cryo-vac test may not have sufficient fidelity to provide accurate knowledge of the temperature distributions within the composite structure. A method based on an inverse distance relationship among the sensors and thermal model nodes was developed to improve the thermal data provided for the nanometer scale WaveFront Error (WFE) predictions. The Linear Distance Weighted Interpolation (LDWI) method was developed to augment the thermal model predictions based on the sparse sensor information. This paper will encompass the development of the LDWI method using the test data from the earlier pathfinder cryo-vac tests, and the results of the notional and as tested WFE predictions from the structural finite element model cases to characterize the accuracies of this LDWI method.

Thermal Modeling↗