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Objective Structured Clinical Evaluation (OSCE) of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) Tool

BACKGROUND Objective Structured Clinical Evaluations (OSCEs) have long been established as a robust methodology for summative assessment of clinical skills and decision-making during medical education. The recent integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into clinical decision-making processes has prompted the need for novel evaluation frameworks to assess the efficacy and reliability of AI clinical decision support system (CDSS) tools. This abstract outlines the process of quantitatively evaluating a novel CDSS (“Doc in a Box” Google 2024) trained on curated medical spaceflight data in the psychomotor domain as it interfaces with a human volunteer acting as the crew medical officer (CMO). PURPOSE The AI CDSS under review was developed as part of the Lunar Command and Control Interoperability (LuCCI) project, which is intended to address a gap in how Lunar Surface Systems (LSS) would interoperate across multiple programs, commercial partners, and international partners. The project objective is to define, prototype, integrate, and evaluate an interoperable lunar command, control, data, and software reference architecture to enable autonomy and informatics capability through common standards across LSS. A multi-modal AI-based CDSS compatible with Federated LSS will assist clinicians in diagnosing and managing complex medical conditions by providing evidence-based recommendations through predictive analytics. Given the critical role of decision-support as NASA continues to evolve its Earth-independent medical operations (EIMO), it is imperative to ensure that such AI tools perform reliably and align with clinical standards during progressive lunar and Martian exploration class missions. METHODS The OSCE framework, traditionally used for evaluating human clinicians, was adapted to assess the AI tool's decision-making capabilities in simulated clinical scenarios. In this adapted OSCE, the AI CDSS was tested across a series of structured clinical scenarios designed to mimic real-life spaceflight patient cases. These scenarios included a range of conditions and complexities, allowing for comprehensive assessment of the tool's performance. Key evaluation metrics included accuracy of diagnosis, timeliness of decision-making, and appropriate recommendations for therapies. The OSCE was scored by human physician evaluators who assessed the AI's recommendations in comparison with expert clinicians' medical decision making to ensure alignment with best practices and the standard of care. RESULTS Preliminary results indicate that the AI CDSS demonstrated high accuracy in diagnostic recommendations and decision support across various scenarios. However, certain limitations were noted, such as occasional discrepancies in handling complex or nuanced cases that required a more contextual understanding. Additionally, the tool scored higher on the diagnostic portion of the rubric, with lower scores in the therapeutic recommendations. These findings highlight the importance of continuous refinement and validation of AI tools through rigorous evaluation frameworks like the OSCE. The adaptation of OSCEs for AI tools presents several advantages, including a structured and reproducible approach to evaluation, the ability to test AI systems in diverse clinical scenarios, and the opportunity to benchmark AI performance against established clinical standards to permit charting of future progress as aerospace medicine evolves as a discipline. Remaining challenges include ensuring that these evaluations capture the full spectrum of clinical decision-making scenarios that will be confronted by CMOs during missions and adequately reflecting real-world variability of the austere spaceflight environment. CONCLUSION Employing OSCEs to evaluate AI clinical decision support tools offers a promising approach to validating their clinical utility and efficacy. This methodology not only provides insights into the tool's performance but also fosters ongoing improvement and alignment with standard of care practices. Future research should focus on refining these evaluation processes and addressing limitations to enhance the integration of AI tools in clinical spaceflight settings. REFERENCES Scott S, Hearns V, Barker MA. Testing Clinical Skills: A Look at the OSCE and USMLE Clinical Skills Exams. S D Med. 2019 Oct;72(10):451-453. Majumder MAA, Kumar A, Krishnamurthy K, Ojeh N, Adams OP, Sa B. An evaluative study of objective structured clinical examination (OSCE): students and examiners perspectives. Adv Med Educ Pract. 2019 Jun 5;10:387-397. Karam VY, Park YS, Tekian A, Youssef N. Evaluating the validity evidence of an OSCE: results from a new medical school. BMC Med Educ. 2018 Dec 20;18(1):313.

Ariana M Nelson↗

NESSUS/expert and NESSUS/FPI in the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) program

The Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures under Stress (NESSUS) is the primary computer code being developed in the NASA Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project. It consists of four modules NESSUS/EXPERT, NESSUS/FPI, NESSUS/PRE and NESSUS/FEM. This presentation concentrates on EXPERT and FPI. To provide an effective interface between NESSUS and the user, an expert system module called NESSUS/EXPERT is being developed. That system uses the CLIPS artificial intelligence code developed to NASA-JSC. The code is compatible with FORTRAN, the standard language for codes in PSAM. The user interacts with the CLIPS inference engine, which is linked to the knowledge database. The perturbation database generated by NESSUS/FEM and managed in EXPERT is used to develop the so-called response or performance model in the random variables. Two independent probabilistic methods are available in PSAM for the computation of the probabilistic structural response. These are the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) method and Monte Carlo simulation. FPI is classified as an advanced reliability method and has been developed over the past ten years by researchers addressing the reliability of civil engineering structures. Monte Carlo is a well-established technique for computing probabilities by conducting a number of deterministic analyses with specified input distributional information.

Burnside, O. H.↗

Flight tests of Viking parachute system in three Mach number regimes. 1: Vehicle description, test operations, and performance

Flight qualifications for parachutes were tested on full-scale simulated Viking spacecraft at entry conditions for the Viking 1975 mission to Mars. The vehicle was carried to an altitude of 36.6 km for the supersonic and transonic tests by a 980.000 cu m balloon. The vehicles were released and propelled to test conditions with rocket engines. A 117,940 cu m balloon carried the test vehicle to an altitude of 27.5 km and the conditions for the subsonic tests were achieved in free fall. Aeroshell separation occurred on all test vehicles from 8 to 14 seconds after parachute deployment. This report describes: (1) the test vehicle; (2) methods used to insure that the test conditions were achieved; and (3) the balloon system design and operations. The report also presents the performance data from onboard and ground based instruments and the results from a statistical trajectory program which gives a continuous history of test-vehicle motions.

Lundstrom, R. R.↗

Mechanical and thermophysical properties of graphite/polyimide composite materials

An on-going program to characterize advanced composites for up to 50,000 hours of exposure to simulated supersonic cruise environments is summarized. Results are presented for up to 25,000 hours of thermal exposure and 10,000 hours of flight simulation at temperatures up to 560K (550 F) with emphasis on HTS/710 graphite/polyimide composite material. Results to date indicate that the maximum use temperature for HTS/710 may be reduced to 505K (450 F) for long-time (1000 hours) application such as the supersonic transport. Preliminary thermophysical properties data for HTS/PMR15 graphite/polyimide were generated. These data include thermal conductivity, thermal expansion, and specific heat from 115K (-252 F) to 590K (600 F) and emittance at room temperature and 590K (600 F). The purpose in generating these data was to validate use of state-of-the-art property measurement methods for advanced graphite fiber reinforced resin matrix composites. Based on results to this point, thermal expansion measurements for composites are most difficult to perform. A high degree of caution in conducting thermal expansion tests and analyzing results is required to produce reliable data.

Rummler, D. R.↗

Stainless Steel NaK-Cooled Circuit (SNaKC) Fabrication and Assembly

An actively pumped Stainless Steel NaK Circuit (SNaKC) has been designed and fabricated by the Early Flight Fission Test Facility (EFF-TF) team at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. This circuit uses the eutectic mixture of sodium and potassium (NaK) as the working fluid building upon the experience and accomplishments of the SNAP reactor program from the late 1960's The SNaKC enables valuable experience and liquid metal test capability to be gained toward the goal of designing and building an affordable surface power reactor. The basic circuit components include a simulated reactor core a NaK to gas heat exchanger, an electromagnetic (EM) liquid metal pump, a liquid metal flow meter, an expansion reservoir and a drain/fill reservoir To maintain an oxygen free environment in the presence of NaK, an argon system is utilized. A helium and nitrogen system are utilized for core, pump, and heat exchanger operation. An additional rest section is available to enable special component testing m an elevated temperature actively pumped liquid metal environment. This paper summarizes the physical build of the SNaKC the gas and pressurization systems, vacuum systems, as well as instrumentation and control methods.

Godfroy, Thomas J.↗

Application of Fast Multipole Methods to the NASA Fast Scattering Code

The NASA Fast Scattering Code (FSC) is a versatile noise prediction program designed to conduct aeroacoustic noise reduction studies. The equivalent source method is used to solve an exterior Helmholtz boundary value problem with an impedance type boundary condition. The solution process in FSC v2.0 requires direct manipulation of a large, dense system of linear equations, limiting the applicability of the code to small scales and/or moderate excitation frequencies. Recent advances in the use of Fast Multipole Methods (FMM) for solving scattering problems, coupled with sparse linear algebra techniques, suggest that a substantial reduction in computer resource utilization over conventional solution approaches can be obtained. Implementation of the single level FMM (SLFMM) and a variant of the Conjugate Gradient Method (CGM) into the FSC is discussed in this paper. The culmination of this effort, FSC v3.0, was used to generate solutions for three configurations of interest. Benchmarking against previously obtained simulations indicate that a twenty-fold reduction in computational memory and up to a four-fold reduction in computer time have been achieved on a single processor.

Dunn, Mark H.↗

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

Current Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities are not generating data fast enough to provide statistically-supportable precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates for future missions. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches – namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities – will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of operations on board the International Space Station (ISS), a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass for future missions. A Bayesian failure rate estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can help reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior failure rate estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, these subjective (and often inaccurate) prior estimates currently have a strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Supportability↗

An Innovative Approach to Modeling VIPER Rover Software Life Cycle Cost

NASA’s “Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover” (VIPER) will be the first robotic mission to prospect for water ice near the south pole of the Moon in late 2023 on a 100-Earth-day mission. The information that the VIPER rover provides will help improve understanding of the composition, distribution, and accessibility of Lunar polar volatiles and will help determine how the Moon’s resources can support future human space exploration. VIPER, however, represents a radical departure from the way that NASA has traditionally developed planetary robotic missions. A key consequence of these differences is that estimating the cost of VIPER’s rover software is challenging and complex.For example, VIPER is being developed using management procedures typically applied to NASA research and technology projects, rather than space flight programs. In addition, key portions of the rover’s software are being designed as ground software to run on mission control computers (rather than on-board the rover as flight software as with prior planetary missions) taking advantage of continuous, interactive data communications between the Moon and Earth and higher performance computing available on the ground. Moreover, the rover’s software is being engineered using Agile software development practices and incorporates a significant amount of open-source, rather than following traditional (spiral, waterfall, etc.) development methods and in-house code. In this paper, we present an innovative process to estimate the life cycle cost of VIPER’s rover software. We first describe how we modeled the architecture and code counts for three software elements: Rover Flight Software (RFSW), Rover Ground Software (RGSW), and Rover Simulation Software (RSIM). We then discuss key challenges and unique aspects of our approach, such as the lack of Lunar rover analogies, the need to integrate and test large open source software, and the strategies developed to account for use of non-space flight management practices and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We conclude with a summary of our results, including cumulative distribution, nearest neighbors and cluster analysis, as well as heuristics used to confirm the reasonableness of the cost estimate.

Utz, Hans↗

An experiment on the use of disposable plastics as a reinforcement in concrete beams

Illustrated here is the concept of reinforced concrete structures by the use of computer simulation and an inexpensive hands-on design experiment. The students in our construction management program use disposable plastic as a reinforcement to demonstrate their understanding of reinforced concrete and prestressed concrete beams. The plastics used for such an experiment vary from plastic bottles to steel reinforced auto tires. This experiment will show the extent to which plastic reinforcement increases the strength of a concrete beam. The procedure of using such throw-away plastics in an experiment to explain the interaction between the reinforcement material and concrete, and a comparison of the test results for using different types of waste plastics are discussed. A computer analysis to simulate the structural response is used to compare the test results and to understand the analytical background of reinforced concrete design. This interaction of using computers to analyze structures and to relate the output results with real experimentation is found to be a very useful method for teaching a math-based analytical subject to our non-engineering students.

Chowdhury, Mostafiz R.↗

Deployable reflector antenna performance optimization using automated surface correction and array-feed compensation

Methods for increasing the electromagnetic (EM) performance of reflectors with rough surfaces were tested and evaluated. First, one quadrant of the 15-meter hoop-column antenna was retrofitted with computer-driven and controlled motors to allow automated adjustment of the reflector surface. The surface errors, measured with metric photogrammetry, were used in a previously verified computer code to calculate control motor adjustments. With this system, a rough antenna surface (rms of approximately 0.180 inch) was corrected in two iterations to approximately the structural surface smoothness limit of 0.060 inch rms. The antenna pattern and gain improved significantly as a result of these surface adjustments. The EM performance was evaluated with a computer program for distorted reflector antennas which had been previously verified with experimental data. Next, the effects of the surface distortions were compensated for in computer simulations by superimposing excitation from an array feed to maximize antenna performance relative to an undistorted reflector. Results showed that a 61-element array could produce EM performance improvements equal to surface adjustments. When both mechanical surface adjustment and feed compensation techniques were applied, the equivalent operating frequency increased from approximately 6 to 18 GHz.

Schroeder, Lyle C.↗

Development and Calibration of a System-Integrated Rotorcraft Finite Element Model for Impact Scenarios

Two full-scale crash tests of an MD-500 helicopter were conducted in 2009 and 2010 at NASA Langley's Landing and Impact Research Facility in support of NASA s Subsonic Rotary Wing Crashworthiness Project. The first crash test was conducted to evaluate the performance of an externally mounted composite deployable energy absorber (DEA) under combined impact conditions. In the second crash test, the energy absorber was removed to establish baseline loads that are regarded as severe but survivable. The presence of this energy absorbing device reduced the peak impact acceleration levels by a factor of three. Accelerations and kinematic data collected from the crash tests were compared to a system-integrated finite element model of the test article developed in parallel with the test program. In preparation for the full-scale crash test, a series of sub-scale and MD-500 mass simulator tests were conducted to evaluate the impact performances of various components and subsystems, including new crush tubes and the DEA blocks. Parameters defined for the system-integrated finite element model were determined from these tests. Results from 19 accelerometers placed throughout the airframe were compared to finite element model responses. The model developed for the purposes of predicting acceleration responses from the first crash test was inadequate when evaluating more severe conditions seen in the second crash test. A newly developed model calibration approach that includes uncertainty estimation, parameter sensitivity, impact shape orthogonality, and numerical optimization was used to calibrate model results for the full-scale crash test without the DEA. This combination of heuristic and quantitative methods identified modeling deficiencies, evaluated parameter importance, and proposed required model changes. The multidimensional calibration techniques presented here are particularly effective in identifying model adequacy. Acceleration results for the calibrated model were compared to test results and the original model results. There was a noticeable improvement in the pilot and copilot region, a slight improvement in the occupant model response, and an over-stiffening effect in the passenger region. One lesson learned was that this approach should be adopted early on, in combination with the building-block approaches that are customarily used, for model development and pretest predictions. Complete crash simulations with validated finite element models can be used to satisfy crash certification requirements, potentially reducing overall development costs.

Annett, Martin S.↗

Multilateral Research Opportunities in Ground Analogs

The global economy forces many nations to consider their national investments and make difficult decisions regarding their investment in future exploration. International collaboration provides an opportunity to leverage other nations' investments to meet common goals. The Humans In Space Community shares a common goal to enable safe, reliable, and productive human space exploration within and beyond Low Earth Orbit. Meeting this goal requires efficient use of limited resources and International capabilities. The International Space Station (ISS) is our primary platform to conduct microgravity research targeted at reducing human health and performance risks for exploration missions. Access to ISS resources, however, is becoming more and more constrained and will only be available through 2020 or 2024. NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is actively pursuing methods to effectively utilize the ISS and appropriate ground analogs to understand and mitigate human health and performance risks prior to embarking on human exploration of deep space destinations. HRP developed a plan to use ground analogs of increasing fidelity to address questions related to exploration missions and is inviting International participation in these planned campaigns. Using established working groups and multilateral panels, the HRP is working with multiple Space Agencies to invite International participation in a series of 30- day missions that HRP will conduct in the US owned and operated Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) during 2016. In addition, the HRP is negotiating access to Antarctic stations (both US and non-US), the German :envihab and Russian NEK facilities. These facilities provide unique capabilities to address critical research questions requiring longer duration simulation or isolation. We are negotiating release of international research opportunities to ensure a multilateral approach to future analog research campaigns, hoping to begin multilateral campaigns in the latter facilities by 2017. Collaborative use of analog facilities and shared investment in the development of spaceflight countermeasures through multilateral campaigns or missions that leverage the global scientific community will focus high quality research and provide sufficient power to accelerate the development of countermeasures and drive sound recommendations for exploration missions. This panel will provide an overview of efforts to encourage and facilitate multilateral collaboration in analog missions or campaigns and describe the facilities currently under consideration to reach the common goal of enabling safe, reliable, and productive human space exploration.

Corbin, Barbara J.↗

The mixture problem in computer mapping of terrain: Improved techniques for establishing spectral signature, atmospheric path radiance, and transmittance

The results of LANDSAT and Skylab research programs on the effects of the atmosphere on computer mapping of terrain include: (1) the concept of a ground truth map needs to be drastically revised; (2) the concept of training areas and test areas is not as simple as generally thought because of the problem of pixels that represent a mixture of terrain classes; (3) this mixture problem needs to be more widely recognized and dealt with by techniques of calculating spectral signatures of mixed classes, or by other methods; (4) atmospheric effects should be considered in computer mapping of terrain and in monitoring changes; and (5) terrain features may be used as calibration panels on the ground, from which atmospheric conditions can be determined and monitored. Results are presented of a test area in mountainous terrain of south-central Colorado for which an initial classification was made using simulated mixture-class spectral signatures and actual LANDSAT-1-MSS data.

Smedes, H. W.↗

Astrochemistry: Recent Advances in the Study of Carbon Molecules in Space

Carbon molecules and ions play an important role in space. Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) are the best-known candidates to account for the infrared emission bands (UIR bands) and PAH spectral features are now being used as probes of the interstellar medium in Galactic and extra-galactic environments. PAHs are also thought to be among the carriers of the diffuse interstellar absorption bands (DIBs). In the model dealing with the interstellar spectral features, PAHs are present as a mixture of radicals, ions and neutral species. PAH ionization states reflect the ionization balance of the medium while PAH size, composition, and structure reflect the energetic and chemical history of the medium. A major challenge for laboratory Astrochemistry is to reproduce (in a realistic way) the physical conditions that exist in the emission and absorption interstellar zones. An extensive laboratory program has been developed in various laboratories to characterize the physical and chemical properties of PAHs in astrophysical environments and to describe how they influence the radiation and energy balance in space and the interstellar chemistry. In particular, laboratory experiments provide measurements of the spectral characteristics of interstellar PAH analogs from the ultraviolet and visible range to the infrared range for comparison with astronomical data. The harsh physical conditions of the interstellar medium - characterized by a low temperature, an absence of collisions and strong ultraviolet radiation fields - are simulated in the laboratory by associating a molecular beam with an ionizing discharge to generate a cold plasma expansion. PAH ions are formed from the neutral precursors in an isolated environment at low temperature (of the order of 100 K). The spectra of neutral and ionized PAHs are measured using the high sensitivity methods of cavity ring down spectroscopy (CRDS). These experiments provide unique information on the spectra of free, cold large carbon molecules and ions in the gas phase.

Salama, Farid↗

Modeling Malaria Transmission in Thailand and Indonesia

Malaria Modeling and Surveillance is a project in the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Applications Program. The main objectives of this project are: 1) identification of the potential breeding sites for major vector species: 2) implementation of a malaria transmission model to identify they key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission; and 3) implementation of a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity. Remote sensing and GIs are the essential elements of this project. The NASA Earth science data sets used in this project include AVHRR Pathfinder, TRMM, MODIS, NSIPP and SIESIP. Textural-contextual classifications are used to identify small larval habitats. Neural network methods are used to model malaria cases as a function of precipitation, temperatures, humidity and vegetation. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records. Examples for spatio-temporal modeling of malaria transmissions in Southeast Asia are given. Discrete event simulations were used for modeling the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle, under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. The output of the model includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Results are in good agreement with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired by Coleman et al. over 4.5 years in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in western Thailand. Application of our models is not restricted to Southeast Asia. The model and techniques are equally applicable to other regions of the world, when appropriate epidemiological and vector ecological parameters are used as input.

Kiang, Richard↗

Computer Modeling of the Earliest Cellular Structures and Functions

In the absence of extinct or extant record of protocells (the earliest ancestors of contemporary cells). the most direct way to test our understanding of the origin of cellular life is to construct laboratory models of protocells. Such efforts are currently underway in the NASA Astrobiology Program. They are accompanied by computational studies aimed at explaining self-organization of simple molecules into ordered structures and developing designs for molecules that perform proto-cellular functions. Many of these functions, such as import of nutrients, capture and storage of energy. and response to changes in the environment are carried out by proteins bound to membrane< We will discuss a series of large-scale, molecular-level computer simulations which demonstrate (a) how small proteins (peptides) organize themselves into ordered structures at water-membrane interfaces and insert into membranes, (b) how these peptides aggregate to form membrane-spanning structures (eg. channels), and (c) by what mechanisms such aggregates perform essential proto-cellular functions, such as proton transport of protons across cell walls, a key step in cellular bioenergetics. The simulations were performed using the molecular dynamics method, in which Newton's equations of motion for each item in the system are solved iteratively. The problems of interest required simulations on multi-nanosecond time scales, which corresponded to 10(exp 6)-10(exp 8) time steps.

Pohorille, Andrew↗

Characterizing the Survey Strategy and Initial Orbit Determination Abilities of the NASA MCAT Telescope for Geosynchronous Orbital Debris Environmental Studies

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) recently commissioned the Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (MCAT) on Ascension Island with the primary goal of obtaining population statistics of the geosynchronous (GEO) orbital debris environment. To help facilitate this, studies have been conducted using MCAT's known and projected capabilities to estimate the accuracy and timeliness in which it can survey the GEO environment. A simulated GEO debris population is created and sampled at various cadences and run through the Constrained Admissible Region Multi Hypotheses Filter (CAR-MHF). The orbits computed from the results are then compared to the simulated data to assess MCAT's ability to determine accurately the orbits of debris at various sample rates. Additionally, estimates of the rate at which MCAT will be able produce a complete GEO survey are presented using collected weather data and the proposed observation data collection cadence. The specific methods and results are presented here.

Frith, J.↗

Characterizing the Survey Strategy and Initial Orbit Determination Abilities of the NASA MCAT Telescope for Geosynchronous Orbital Debris Environmental Studies

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) recently commissioned the Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (MCAT) on Ascension Island with the primary goal of obtaining population statistics of the geosynchronous (GEO) orbital debris environment. To help facilitate this, studies have been conducted using MCAT's known and projected capabilities to estimate the accuracy and timeliness in which it can survey the GEO environment. A simulated GEO debris population is created and sampled at various cadences and run through the Constrained Admissible Region Multi Hypotheses Filter (CAR-MHF). The orbits computed from the results are then compared to the simulated data to assess MCAT's ability to determine accurately the orbits of debris at various sample rates. Additionally, estimates of the rate at which MCAT will be able produce a complete GEO survey are presented using collected weather data and the proposed observation data collection cadence. The specific methods and results are presented here.

Frith, James↗