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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Radiation Transport in Random Media With Large Fluctuations

Strongly heterogeneous media arise in several applications that include radiation shields, nuclear fuel, BWR moderators, clouds, planetary and stellar atmospheres, turbulent gases and plasmas. Neutral and charged particle transport computations in such media have relied heavily on formulating transport equations with spatially random coefficients (physical data) and developing solution methods to deal with the additional stochastic dimensions. Attempts at developing approximate closures that yield only low order statistical information (e.g., mean and variance of the flux) have proved to be highly restrictive under real physics conditions or rely on techniques that require fluctuation amplitudes to be small for robustness. Recently, stochastic spectral methods such as polynomial chaos and stochastic collocation have been developed for aleatoric uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis, and successfully applied in radiation transport work. Advances in UQ techniques have tended to focus on efficiently handling large numbers of uncertain variables but the rigorous stochastic basis of the approach also promotes its use in situations where stochasticity is due to spatial heterogeneity and the associated uncertainty is large. Here we apply these techniques to radiation transport in media with spatially randomly varying cross sections without restriction on fluctuation amplitudes. Specifically, we represent the cross sections as a lognormal spatial random process with specified mean, variance and covariance function and use a Karhunen-Loeve (KL) decomposition to generate cross section realizations that are strictly positive. Woodcock Monte Carlo (WMC) is then used to simulate transport using random sampling of cross sections and deterministic sampling based on a stochastic collocation technique. Numerical results for the mean and variance in the scalar flux and leakage currents are obtained for weak and strong random variations. We focus in this work on demonstrating the approach and defer application to specific problems to a future investigation. We have demonstrated that a combination of stochastic spectral representation and Woodcock Monte Carlo simulation allows efficient computation of radiation transport in strongly random media. The use of a lognormal distribution to represent the fluctuations in medium properties facilitates enforcement of strict positivity of cross section realizations, a condition that has challenged standard approaches that assume Gaussian fluctuations. The fact that the lognormal random process is a memoryless nonlinear transformation of a Gaussian process further enables efficient and accurate reconstruction of the random cross section realizations using a Karhunen-Loeve representation of the cross section. Finally, the robustness of this model enables fluctuations of arbitrarily large amplitude to be studied, using both random sampling Monte Carlo and more efficient stochastic collocation techniques. The present work is being extended to allow reconstruction of probability density functions of output variables using polynomial chaos representation, and to accommodate general cross section covariance functions. Also, techniques are being explored to more judiciously select ceiling cross sections to enhance the efficiency of Woodcock Monte Carlo for transport in random media. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Optimization of SEM-EDS to determine the C–A–S–H composition in matured cement paste samples

Microanalysis of characteristic X-rays in the SEM is a powerful method to assess the chemical composition of phases in cement pastes, in particular the calcium silicate hydrate containing aluminium (C–A–S–H). Nevertheless, many variables may influence the results obtained, due mainly to the intimate mixing of C–A–S–H with other hydrate phases and the susceptibility of this phase to damage by the electron beam. In this study the effect of various acquisition parameters was examined, along with methods to determine an “average” C–A–S–H composition. The results acquired in the SEM were compared with the analysis of the same samples in the TEM, where phases can be analyzed without intermixing. A simple method was used to obtain compositions from SEM based analysis that are very close to those which can be obtained in the TEM. - Highlights: •The intermixing of phases is the limiting factor in the analysis of C–A–S–H composition by SEM-EDS •Guidelines to limit beam damage and properly analyze C–A–S–H composition by SEM-EDS are given •SEM-EDS and TEM-EDS give similar results when proper data treatment is made.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multiparameter Methods are the New Field in Statistics

During the last decade statistical problems of a new kind have appeared more and more often, in which the dimensionality of observations is large, and the sample size is small or comparable with the dimensionality of observations. These problems may be characterized as multiparameter problems. The theory of multiparameter analysis, proposed by A.N.Kolmogorov and supported by the studies on the spectral theory of random matrices of V. A.Marchenko, L. A.Pastur, V. L.Girko, and others, revealed some specific phenomena appearing in statistics with a large number of weakly dependent variables. Particularly, there are stable relations between the principal parts of parameter set functions and the set of observed variables, which may be used to improve the statistical analysis. The use of these phenomena allows one to develop a thorough, always stable, and approximately optimal (irrespective of samples) versions of mostly used statistical procedures. The multiparameter versions of the discriminant analysis are of special interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Comparability of Liquid Chromatography Tandem Mass Spectrometry Analysis of Dissolved Organic Matter across Laboratories

Non-targeted liquid chromatography tandem highresolution mass spectrometry (LC−MS/MS) is increasingly applied for the structure-resolved chemical analysis of dissolved organic matter (DOM). With new developments in MS instrumentation and analysis software, the approach has gained substantial momentum over the past decade. However, achieving high-quality analytical data that is reproducible and comparable across laboratories can be a bottleneck in non-targeted metabolomics and organic matter chemical analysis, especially for data reuse in repository-scale analyses. Understanding the capabilities as well as challenges of comparing LC−MS/MS data from different laboratories is necessary for inferring global trends from public data sets. To illuminate instrumentation factors that drive differences and variability, we used a standardized data analysis pipeline, including classical (CMN) and featurebased molecular networking (FBMN), to analyze data from a ring trial by 24 laboratories on identical sample sets of algal and DOM extracts that were mixed in predefined concentrations and spiked with standards. Our results showed that data sets from similar mass spectrometer types with unified instrument parameters were qualitatively comparable, resolving the same general trends and shared mass spectral features. Interlaboratory comparability was best for high-intensity features, while low-intensity features showed greater detection variability. Our analysis also highlights challenges when comparing data from instruments with different acquisition rates or operating with less standardized methods. Lastly, we provide recommendations for data integration, public data sharing, standardization, and best practices for standardized LC−MS/MS data acquisition, which will be critical for long-term time series and intercomparability of DOM chemical analyses.

DOM↗

Variation of Ionizing Continuum: The Main Driver of Broad Absorption Line Variability

We present a statistical analysis of the variability of broad absorption lines (BALs) in quasars using the large multi-epoch spectroscopic data set of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 12 (SDSS DR12). We divide the sample into two groups according to the pattern of the variation of C iv BAL with respect to that of a continuum: the equivalent widths (EW) of the BAL decreases (increases) when the continuum brightens (dims) as group T1; and the variation of the EW and the continuum in the opposite relation of group T2. We find that T2 has significantly (P{sub T}<10{sup −6}, Students T Test) higher EW ratios (R) of Si iv to C iv BAL than T1. Our result agrees with the prediction of photoionization models that C{sup +3} column density increases (decreases) if there is a (or no) C{sup +3} ionization front, while R decreases with the incident continuum. We show that BAL variabilities in at least 80% of quasars are driven by the variation of an ionizing continuum, while other models that predict uncorrelated BAL and continuum variability contribute less than 20%. Considering large uncertainty in the continuum flux calibration, the latter fraction may be much smaller. When the sample is binned into different time intervals between the two observations, we find significant difference in the distribution of R between T1 and T2 in all time-bins down to ΔT<6 days, suggesting that the BAL outflow in a fraction of quasars has a recombination timescale of only a few days.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Deep drilling in the time domain with DECam – II: characterizing the light curves of candidates in the extragalactic fields

ABSTRACT In this second paper on the DECam deep-drilling field (DDF) program, we release 2020 optical $gri$-band light curves for transients and variables in the extragalactic COSMOS and ELAIS fields based on time series observations with a 3-d cadence from semester 2021A through 2023A. In order to demonstrate the wide variety of time domain events detected by the program and encourage others to use the data set, we characterize the sample by presenting a brief analysis of the light-curve parameters such as time span, amplitude, and peak brightness. We also present preliminary light-curve categorizations, and identify potential stellar variables, active galactic nuclei, tidal disruption events, supernovae (SNe) (such as Type Ia, Type IIP, superluminous, and gravitationally lensed SNe), and fast transients. Where relevant, the number of identified transients is compared to the predictions of the original proposal. We also discuss the challenges of analyzing DDF data in the context of the upcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory and its Legacy Survey of Space and Time, which will include DDFs. Images from the Dark Energy Camera DDF program are available without proprietary period and the light curves presented in this work are publicly available for analysis.

Graham, Melissa L. (ORCID:0000000291543136)↗

Cloud Atlas: Hubble Space Telescope Near-infrared Spectral Library of Brown Dwarfs, Planetary-mass Companions, and Hot Jupiters

Bayesian atmospheric retrieval tools can place constraints on the properties of brown dwarfs' and hot Jupiters' atmospheres. To fully exploit these methods, high signal-to-noise spectral libraries with well-understood uncertainties are essential. We present a high signal-to-noise spectral library (1.10–1.69 μm) of the thermal emission of 76 brown dwarfs and hot Jupiters. All our spectra have been acquired with the Hubble Space Telescope’s Wide Field Camera 3 instrument and its G141 grism. The near-infrared spectral types of these objects range from L4 to Y1. Eight of our targets have estimated masses below the deuterium-burning limit. We analyze the database to identify peculiar objects and/or multiple systems, concluding that this sample includes two very-low-surface-gravity objects and five intermediate-surface-gravity objects. In addition, spectral indices designed to search for composite-atmosphere brown dwarfs indicate that eight objects in our sample are strong candidates to have such atmospheres. None of these objects are overluminous, so their composite atmospheres are unlikely to be companion-induced artifacts. Five of the eight confirmed candidates have been reported as photometrically variable, suggesting that composite atmospheric indices are useful in identifying brown dwarfs with strongly heterogeneous cloud covers. We compare hot Jupiters and brown dwarfs in a near-infrared color–magnitude diagram. We confirm that the coldest hot Jupiters in our sample have spectra similar to mid-L dwarfs, and the hottest hot Jupiters have spectra similar to those of M-dwarfs. Our sample provides a uniform data set of a broad range of ultracool atmospheres, allowing large-scale comparative studies and providing an HST legacy spectral library.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

SRS 2010 Vegetation Inventory GeoStatistical Mapping Results for Custom Reaction Intensity and Total Dead Fuels

This report of the geostatistical analysis results of the fire fuels response variables, custom reaction intensity and total dead fuels is but a part of an SRS 2010 vegetation inventory project. For detailed description of project, theory and background including sample design, methods, and results please refer to USDA Forest Service Savannah River Site internal report “SRS 2010 Vegetation Inventory GeoStatistical Mapping Report”, (Edwards & Parresol 2013).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Interannual Variability for Photovoltaic Systems in PVWatts

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) PVWatts is a relatively simple tool used by industry and individuals alike to easily estimate the amount of energy a photovoltaic (PV) system will produce throughout the course of a typical year. PVWatts Version 5 has previously been shown to be able to reasonably represent an operating system's output when provided with concurrent weather data, however this type of data is not available when estimating system output during future time frames. For this purpose PVWatts uses weather data from typical meteorological year (TMY) datasets which are available on the NREL website. The TMY files represent a statistically 'typical' year which by definition excludes anomalous weather patterns and as a result may not provide sufficient quantification of project risk to the financial community. It was therefore desired to quantify the interannual variability associated with TMY files in order to improve the understanding of risk associated with these projects. To begin to understand the interannual variability of a PV project, we simulated two archetypal PV system designs, which are common in the PV industry, in PVWatts using the NSRDB's 1961-1990 historical dataset. This dataset contains measured hourly weather data and spans the thirty years from 1961-1990 for 239 locations in the United States. To note, this historical dataset was used to compose the TMY2 dataset. Using the results of these simulations we computed several statistical metrics which may be of interest to the financial community and normalized the results with respect to the TMY energy prediction at each location, so that these results could be easily translated to similar systems. This report briefly describes the simulation process used and the statistical methodology employed for this project, but otherwise focuses mainly on a sample of our results. A short discussion of these results is also provided. It is our hope that this quantification of the interannual variability of PV systems will provide a starting point for variability considerations in future PV system designs and investigations. however this type of data is not available when estimating system output during future time frames.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A novel Whole Air Sample Profiler (WASP) for the quantification of volatile organic compounds in the boundary layer

The emission and fate of reactive VOCs is of inherent interest to those studying chemical biosphere-atmosphere interactions. In-canopy VOC observations are obtainable using tower-based samplers, but the lack of suitable sampling systems for the full boundary 5 layer has limited the data characterizing the vertical structure of such gases above the canopy height and still in the boundary layer. This is the important region where many reactive VOCs are oxidized or otherwise removed. Here we describe an airborne sampling system designed to collect a vertical profile of air into a 3/800 OD tube 150m in length. The inlet ram air pressure is used to flow sampled air through the 10 tube, which results in a varying flow rate based on aircraft speed and altitude. Since aircraft velocity decreases during ascent, it is necessary to account for the variable flow rate into the tube. This is accomplished using a reference gas that is pulsed into the air stream so that the precise altitude of the collected air can be reconstructed post-collection. The pulsed injections are also used to determine any significant effect 15 from diffusion/mixing within the sampling tube, either during collection or subsequent extraction for gas analysis. This system has been successfully deployed, and we show some measured vertical profiles of isoprene and its oxidation products methacrolein and methyl vinyl ketone from a mixed canopy near Columbia, Missouri.

Mak, J. E.↗

Carbon-Assisted, Continuous Syngas Production in a Chemical Looping Scheme

In the current energy and environment scenario, it is imperative to develop energy efficient routes for chemical manufacturing that also pave the way for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. This work presents an efficient pathway for continuous syngas production via a chemical looping conversion of the two most potent greenhouse gases—CH 4 , and CO 2 . The well-known dry-reforming process of converting CH 4 , and CO 2 to syngas is energy-intensive and suffers from catalyst deactivation. The chemical looping approach, on the other hand, provides avenues for mitigating catalyst deactivation and enabling improved energy efficiency. The key to such process enhancements lies in the intricate structure–function relationships of the catalyst and its correlation to the process variables. We present the reduction and oxidation characteristics of 5 wt.% Ni/Ce 1-x Zr x O 2 -based catalysts (x = 0, 0.4, and 0.625). We demonstrate low temperature CH4 activation over Ni-promoted samples as opposed to pure Ce 1-x Zr x O 2 . Moreover, our results depict an optimum regeneration of these catalysts when oxidized by CO 2 , and H 2 O, which allows for chemical looping operation of steam reforming of methane as well. Process variables were tuned to optimize the CH 4 conversion (over 80%), and H 2 /CO ratio at 650 °C. The critical surface reactions—carbon accumulation and gasification, and thermocatalytic CO 2 splitting were investigated to elucidate the dynamic nature of the catalyst surface. In conclusion, the impact of this work lies in showcasing the opportunities to design chemical looping reactors for energy efficient syngas production from waste greenhouse gases.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

SUN-LIKE MAGNETIC CYCLES IN THE RAPIDLY ROTATING YOUNG SOLAR ANALOG HD 30495

A growing body of evidence suggests that multiple dynamo mechanisms can drive magnetic variability on different timescales, not only in the Sun but also in other stars. Many solar activity proxies exhibit a quasi-biennial (∼2 year) variation, which is superimposed upon the dominant 11 year cycle. A well-characterized stellar sample suggests at least two different relationships between rotation period and cycle period, with some stars exhibiting long and short cycles simultaneously. Within this sample, the solar cycle periods are typical of a more rapidly rotating star, implying that the Sun might be in a transitional state or that it has an unusual evolutionary history. In this work, we present new and archival observations of dual magnetic cycles in the young solar analog HD 30495, a ∼1 Gyr old G1.5 V star with a rotation period near 11 days. This star falls squarely on the relationships established by the broader stellar sample, with short-period variations at ∼1.7 years and a long cycle of ∼12 years. We measure three individual long-period cycles and find durations ranging from 9.6 to 15.5 years. We find the short-term variability to be intermittent, but present throughout the majority of the time series, though its occurrence and amplitude are uncorrelated with the longer cycle. These essentially solar-like variations occur in a Sun-like star with more rapid rotation, though surface differential rotation measurements leave open the possibility of a solar equivalence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

CENSUS OF BLUE STARS IN SDSS DR8

We present a census of the 12,060 spectra of blue objects ((g – r){sub 0} < –0.25) in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 8 (DR8). As part of the data release, all of the spectra were cross-correlated with 48 template spectra of stars, galaxies, and QSOs to determine the best match. We compared the blue spectra by eye to the templates assigned in SDSS DR8. 10,856 of the objects matched their assigned template, 170 could not be classified due to low signal-to-noise ratio, and 1034 were given new classifications. We identify 7458 DA white dwarfs, 1145 DB white dwarfs, 273 rarer white dwarfs (including carbon, DZ, DQ, and magnetic), 294 subdwarf O stars, 648 subdwarf B stars, 679 blue horizontal branch stars, 1026 blue stragglers, 13 cataclysmic variables, 129 white dwarf-M dwarf binaries, 36 objects with spectra similar to DO white dwarfs, 179, quasi-stellar objects (QSOs), and 10 galaxies. We provide two tables of these objects, sample spectra that match the templates, figures showing all of the spectra that were grouped by eye, and diagnostic plots that show the positions, colors, apparent magnitudes, proper motions, etc., for each classification. Future surveys will be able to use templates similar to stars in each of the classes we identify to automatically classify blue stars, including rare types.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Diversity of Eastern North American Ant Communities along Environmental Gradients

Studies of species diversity patterns across regional environmental gradients seldom consider the impact of habitat type on within-site (alpha) and between-site (beta) diversity. This study is designed to identify the influence of habitat type across geographic and environmental space, on local patterns of species richness and regional turnover patterns of ant diversity in the northeastern United States. Specifically, I aim to 1) compare local species richness in paired open and forested transects and identify the environmental variables that best correlate with richness; and 2) document patterns of beta diversity throughout the region in both open and forested habitat. I systematically sampled ants at 67 sites from May to August 2010, spanning 10 degrees of latitude, and 1000 meters of elevation. Patterns of alpha and beta diversity across the region and along environmental gradients differed between forested and open habitats. Local species richness was higher in the low elevation and warmest sites and was always higher in open habitat than in forest habitat transects. Richness decreased as temperature decreased or elevation increased. Forested transects show strong patterns of decreasing dissimilarity in species composition between sites along the temperature gradient but open habitat transects did not. Maximum temperature of the warmest month better predicted species richness than either latitude or elevation. I find that using environmental variables as key predictors of richness yields more biologically relevant results, and produces simpler macroecological models than commonly used models which use only latitude and elevation as predictors of richness and diversity patterns. This study contributes to the understanding of mechanisms that structure the communities of important terrestrial arthropods which are likely to be influenced by climatic change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Synthesis and Observation of Emergent Phenomena in Epitaxial Heusler Compound Heterostructures

The proposal was on the synthesis and observation of emergent phenomena in epitaxial Heusler compound heterostructures. The large range of properties and number of Heusler compounds opens up a wide number of potential compounds that will exhibit emergent phenomena. The similarity, large range of relatively inexpensive, large area, high crystal quality, III-V bulk substrates, lattice parameters and the ability to tune the lattice parameters through ternary or quaternary III-V compound semiconductor epitaxial growth, makes III-V semiconductors an ideal choice for substrates for epitaxial growth of Heusler compounds. A number of half Heusler compounds have been predicted to exhibit band inversion, making them topological and are therefore expected to exhibit spin-momentum locked topological surface states with linear dispersion. Others are predicted to be semimetals with Weyl points and others semiconducting and magnetic. During the course of this grant, emphasis has been on investigating Heusler compounds with emergent phenomena and demonstrating the ability to tune their properties through alloying and strain. We have grown toplogical semimetal (PtLuSb, PtMnBi), Weyl (Co 2 MnAl, Co 2 TiGe), half metal (PtMnSb, Co 2 MnSi, Co 2 MnAl x Si 1-x , Co2FeAl), and semiconducting (CoTiSb, NiTiSn) and tuned their properties through alloying and epitaxial strain. We also investigated the closely related materials of rare-earth monopnictide, some of which have also been predicted to be topological. During the attempts to grow the PtMnBi, it was discovered that Bi, another predicted topological material when ultrathin, could be grown epitaxially on InSb, results for which are also reported here. The main focus for this effort has been on using variable photon energy and spin-dependent angle resolved photoemission (ARPES) to determine bulk band structure and surface states of pristine epitaxial films grown on III-V semiconductor and MgO substrates and correlate results with theory and transport measurements. Theory has been critical to interpretation of experimental results and has been essential in guiding experiments. The research benefited from several strong collaborations between the PIs and the beamline scientists at the Advanced Light Source at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center (SLAC) at Stanford and at the Max Lab at Lund University in Sweden. The strong experiment - theory collaboration between the PI’s groups, the Palmstrøm group at UCSB and the Janotti group at the University of Delaware, has been critical for interpreting the experimental ARPES and magnetotransport measurements results and making predictions to guide experiments. Weekly interactive Zoom meetings made this work well. A collaboration between the Palmstrøm group and Dr. Alexei Fedorov at the Advanced Light Source (ALS) resulted in significant modifications to his end chamber to accommodate the vacuum suitcase that was designed and constructed in the Palmstrøm group at UCSB. In collaboration with beamline scientists, Drs. Makoto Hashimoto and Donghui Lu at SLAC, Palmstrøm made modifications to the vacuum suitcase and developed special sample holders that allowed samples to be grown in the Palmstrøm MBE systems at UCSB and transported in the UHV vacuum suitcase to SLAC for ARPES measurements. The development of the vacuum suitcase was essential for this grant as it has allowed variable photon energies to be used to identify surface versus bulk states on samples that could not be capped and decapped using As- or Sb-capping layers.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Resampling and data augmentation for short-term PV output prediction based on an imbalanced sky images dataset using convolutional neural networks

Integrating photovoltaics (PV) into electricity grids is challenged by potentially large fluctuations in power generation. In recent years, sky image-based PV output prediction using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) has emerged as a promising approach to forecasting fluctuations. A key challenge is imbalanced sky image datasets: because of the geography of solar PV system installations, sky image datasets are often rich in sunny condition data but deficient in cloudy condition data. This imbalance contrasts with the fact that model errors are dominated by cloudy condition performance. In this study, we attempt to remedy this by exploring the enrichment and augmentation of an imbalanced sky images dataset for two PV output prediction tasks: nowcasting (predicting concurrent PV output) and forecasting (predicting 15-minute-ahead future PV output). We empirically examine the efficacy of using different resampling and data augmentation approaches to create a rebalanced dataset for model development. A three-stage greedy search is used to determine the optimal resampling approach, data augmentation techniques and over-sampling rate. The results show that for the nowcast problem, resampling and data augmentation can effectively enhance the model performance, reducing overall root mean squared error (RMSE) by an average of 4%, or a 15 std. (standard deviation) of improvement compared to the variability of the baseline model. In contrast, the treatment RMSE for the forecast problem nearly always overlaps the baseline performance at the ± 2 std. level. The optimal resampling approach expands on the original dataset by over-sampling the minority cloudy data, with the best results from large over-sampling rate (e.g., 4 ~ 6 times over-sampling of cloudy images).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Insights into the variability of nucleated amyloid polymerization by a minimalistic model of stochastic protein assembly

Self-assembly of proteins into amyloid aggregates is an important biological phenomenon associated with human diseases such as Alzheimer’s disease. Amyloid fibrils also have potential applications in nano-engineering of biomaterials. The kinetics of amyloid assembly show an exponential growth phase preceded by a lag phase, variable in duration as seen in bulk experiments and experiments that mimic the small volumes of cells. Here, to investigate the origins and the properties of the observed variability in the lag phase of amyloid assembly currently not accounted for by deterministic nucleation dependent mechanisms, we formulate a new stochastic minimal model that is capable of describing the characteristics of amyloid growth curves despite its simplicity. We then solve the stochastic differential equations of our model and give mathematical proof of a central limit theorem for the sample growth trajectories of the nucleated aggregation process. These results give an asymptotic description for our simple model, from which closed form analytical results capable of describing and predicting the variability of nucleated amyloid assembly were derived. We also demonstrate the application of our results to inform experiments in a conceptually friendly and clear fashion. Our model offers a new perspective and paves the way for a new and efficient approach on extracting vital information regarding the key initial events of amyloid formation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗