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At least 1,171 records · Page 65
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Using TRMM Data To Understand Interannual Variations In the Tropical Water Balance

A significant element of the science rationale for TRMM centered on assembling rainfall data needed to validate climate models-- climatological estimates of precipitation, its spatial and temporal variability, and vertical modes of latent heat release. Since the launch of TRMM, a great interest in the science community has emerged for quantifying interannual variability (IAV) of precipitation and its relationship to sea-surface temperature (SST) changes. The fact that TRMM has sampled one strong warm/ cold ENSO couplet, together with the prospect for a mission lifetime approaching ten years, has bolstered this interest in these longer time scales. Variability on a regional basis as well as for the tropics as a whole is of concern. Our analysis of TRMM results so far has shown surprising lack of concordance between various algorithms in quantifying IAV of precipitation. The first objective of this talk is to quantify the sensitivity of tropical precipitation to changes in SSTs. We analyze performance of the 3A11, 3A25, and 3B31 algorithms and investigate their relationship to scattering-- based algorithms constructed from SSM/I and TRMM 85 kHz data. The physical basis for the differences (and similarities) in depicting tropical oceanic and land rainfall will be discussed. We argue that scattering-based estimates of variability constitute a useful upper bound for precipitation variations. These results lead to the second question addressed in this talk-- How do TRMM precipitation / SST sensitivities compare to estimates of oceanic evaporation and what are the implications of these uncertainties in determining interannual changes in large-scale moisture transport? We summarize results of an analysis performed using COADS data supplemented by SSM/I estimates of near-surface variables to assess evaporation sensitivity to SST. The response of near 5 W sq m/K is compared to various TRMM precipitation sensitivities. Implied moisture convergence over the tropics and its sensitivity to errors of these algorithms is discussed.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
DOE OSTI2015

THE MEGAMASER COSMOLOGY PROJECT. VII. INVESTIGATING DISK PHYSICS USING SPECTRAL MONITORING OBSERVATIONS

We use single-dish radio spectra of known 22 GHz H{sub 2}O megamasers, primarily gathered from the large data set observed by the Megamaser Cosmology Project, to identify Keplerian accretion disks and to investigate several aspects of the disk physics. We test a mechanism for maser excitation proposed by Maoz and McKee (1998), whereby population inversion arises in gas behind spiral shocks traveling through the disk. Though the flux of redshifted features is larger on average than that of blueshifted features, in support of the model, the high-velocity features show none of the predicted systematic velocity drifts. We find rapid intra-day variability in the maser spectrum of ESO 558−G009 that is likely the result of interstellar scintillation, for which we favor a nearby (D ≈ 70 pc) scattering screen. In a search for reverberation in six well-sampled sources, we find that any radially propagating signal must be contributing ≲10% of the total variability. We also set limits on the magnetic field strengths in seven sources, using strong flaring events to check for the presence of Zeeman splitting. These limits are typically 200–300 mG (1σ), but our most stringent limits reach down to 73 mG for the galaxy NGC 1194.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2011

Handling Heavenly Jewels - 35 Years of Antarctic Meteorite Processing at Johnson Space Center

The ANSMET program began in 1976, and since that time more than 18,000 meteorites have been processed in the Meteorite Processing Lab at Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX[1]. The meteorites are collected and returned to JSC on a freezer truck and remain frozen until they are initially processed. Initial Processing of Meteorites: Initial processing involves drying the meteorites in a nitrogen glove box for 24 to 48 hours, photographing, measuring, weighing and writing a description of the interior and exterior. The meteorite is broken and a representative sample is sent to the Smithsonian Institution for classification. Newsletter & Requests: Once initial processing has been complete and the meteorites have been classified, the information is published in the Antarctic Meteorite Newsletter[2,3]. The newsletter is published twice yearly and is sent electronically to researchers around the world and is also available on line. Researchers are asked to fill out a request form and submit it to the Meteorite Working Group secretary. All sample requests will be reviewed by either the meteorite curator or the Meteorite Working Group de-pending on the type of meteorite and the research being conducted. Processing for Sample Requests: In the meteorite processing lab, meteorite samples are prepared several different ways. Most samples are prepared as chips obtained by use of stainless steel chisels in a chipping bowl or rock splitter. In special situations where a researcher needs a slab the meteorite samples can be bandsawed in a dry nitrogen glove box with a diamond blade, no liquids are ever introduced into the cabinet. The last type of sample preparation is thin/thick sections. The meteorite thin section lab at JSC can prepare standard 30-micron thin sections, thick sections of variable thickness (100 to 200 microns), or demountable sections using superglue. Information for researchers: It is important that re-searchers fill the sample request form completely, in order to make sure the meteorite is processed correctly[4]. Re-searchers should list any special requirements on the form, i.e. packaging of samples (poly vs. stainless), thick sections and thickness needed, superglue needed, interior chips, exterior chips, fusion crust, contamination issues, all concerns should be listed so processing can be done accurately and any concerns the researcher has can be addressed be-fore the meteorites are broken.

Satterwhite, C. E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large Ensemble Particle Filter for Spatial Climate Reconstructions Using a Linear Inverse Model

Proxy records that document the last 2000 years of climate provide evidence for the wide range of the natural climate variability from inter-annual to secular timescales not captured by the short window of recent direct observations. Assessing climate models ability to reproduce such natural variations is crucial to understand climate sensitivity and impacts of future climate change. Paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) offers a powerful way to extend the short instrumental period by optimally combining the physics described by General Circulation Climate Models (GCMs) with information from available proxy records while taking into account their uncertainties. Here we present a new PDA approach based on a sequential importance resampling (SIR) Particle filter (PF) that uses Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) as an emulator of several CMIP-class GCMs. We examine in a perfect-model framework the skill of the various LIMs to forecast the dynamics of the surface temperatures and provide spatial field reconstructions over the last millennium in a SIR PF. Our results show that the LIMs allow for skillful ensemble forecasts at 1-year lead-time based on GCMs dynamical knowledge with best prediction in the tropics and the North Atlantic. The PDA further provides a set of physically consistent spatial fields allowing robust uncertainty quantification related to climate models biases and proxy spatial sampling. Our results indicate that the LIM yields dynamical memory improving climate variability reconstructions and support the use of the LIM as a GCM-emulator in real reconstruction to propagate large ensembles of particles at low cost in SIR PF.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Descriptor Aided Bayesian Optimization for Many-Level Qualitative Variables With Materials Design Applications

Abstract Engineering design often involves qualitative and quantitative design variables, which requires systematic methods for the exploration of these mixed-variable design spaces. Expensive simulation techniques, such as those required to evaluate optimization objectives in materials design applications, constitute the main portion of the cost of the design process and underline the need for efficient search strategies—Bayesian optimization (BO) being one of the most widely adopted. Although recent developments in mixed-variable Bayesian optimization have shown promise, the effects of dimensionality of qualitative variables have not been well studied. High-dimensional qualitative variables, i.e., with many levels, impose a large design cost as they typically require a larger dataset to quantify the effect of each level on the optimization objective. We address this challenge by leveraging domain knowledge about underlying physical descriptors, which embody the physics of the underlying physical phenomena, to infer the effect of unobserved levels that have not been sampled yet. We show that physical descriptors can be intuitively embedded into the latent variable Gaussian process approach—a mixed-variable GP modeling technique—and used to selectively explore levels of qualitative variables in the Bayesian optimization framework. This physics-informed approach is particularly useful when one or more qualitative variables are high dimensional (many-level) and the modeling dataset is small, containing observations for only a subset of levels. Through a combination of mathematical test functions and materials design applications, our method is shown to be robust to certain types of incomplete domain knowledge and significantly reduces the design cost for problems with high-dimensional qualitative variables.

Engineering↗
NASA NTRS2016

Spatio-Temporal Variability of Groundwater Storage in India

Groundwater level measurements from 3907 monitoring wells, distributed within 22 major river basins of India, are assessed to characterize their spatial and temporal variability. Ground water storage (GWS) anomalies (relative to the long-term mean) exhibit strong seasonality, with annual maxima observed during the monsoon season and minima during pre-monsoon season. Spatial variability of GWS anomalies increases with the extent of measurements, following the power law relationship, i.e., log-(spatial variability) is linearly dependent on log-(spatial extent).In addition, the impact of well spacing on spatial variability and the power law relationship is investigated. We found that the mean GWS anomaly sampled at a 0.25 degree grid scale closes to unweighted average over all wells. The absolute error corresponding to each basin grows with increasing scale, i.e., from 0.25 degree to 1 degree. It was observed that small changes in extent could create very large changes in spatial variability at large grid scales. Spatial variability of GWS anomaly has been found to vary with climatic conditions. To our knowledge, this is the first study of the effects of well spacing on groundwater spatial variability. The results may be useful for interpreting large scale groundwater variations from unevenly spaced or sparse groundwater well observations or for siting and prioritizing wells in a network for groundwater management. The output of this study could be used to maintain a cost effective groundwater monitoring network in the study region and the approach can also be used in other parts of the globe.

Groundwater monitoring↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variable Emittance Coatings

Variable emittance coatings (VECs) can reduce thermal control system mass and power by passively changing radiator heat rejection according to spacecraft and environment heat loads. VECs make establishing a lunar presence easier since this technology helps overcome challenges with harsh thermal environments on the lunar surface and in transit. This CIF focuses on creating testing capabilities to assess VECs from collaborators in academia and industry. Two main testing capabilities were created. First, a set of temperature dependent Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) measurement accessories were designed, fabricated, and used to measure samples received from collaborators. These accessories are capable of measuring the transmittance and reflectance of semi transparent and opaque samples. Second, a vacuum calorimetry experiment was designed and built to assess the variable heat rejection of larger coupons.

Sydney Taylor↗
DOE OSTI2022

Damage Tolerance Assessment of Laser Clad Repairs of Coarse Grain Ti-6Al-4V

Background: Laser cladding offers a promising approach to repairing aviation components, with the ability to restore the geometric shape and the static and fatigue strength. Objective: The damage tolerance of a coarse grain Ti-6Al-4 V material is assessed via three sets of samples: (i) baseline, (ii) laser clad repaired, and (iii) laser cladding followed by heat treatment. Method: The specimens were subjected to fatigue loading using a marker band technique, in which cracks initiated from pre-defined laser slots and the small crack growth rates were measured by quantitative fractography. Additional characterization was performed on these samples, including hardness measurements, microstructure analysis, and multimodal residual stress analyses. Results: The region of the specimen undergoing laser cladding exhibited higher hardness values and a compressive residual stress, based on the slitting method. The samples subjected to heat treatment after cladding displayed negligible differences in grain size and minimal residual stress relaxation. Conclusions: The results demonstrated significant variability, with data demonstrating that cracks in the laser clad region (exhibiting the largest compressive residual stress) grew faster than cracks in the substrate region of the sample or in the baseline cases. Finally, these counterintuitive results are rationalized with additional analyses from synchrotron-based energy dispersive X-ray diffraction and high energy X-ray diffraction, demonstrating significant spatial variability in the residual elastic strains in the millimeter-sized prior β grains within the material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

An empirical calibration of the serpentine-water oxygen isotope fractionation at T = 25–100°C

The ability to precisely constrain the physical–chemical conditions of serpentinization, such as temperature and fluid source, is limited by the accuracy of calibrations for oxygen isotope fractionation between serpentine and water – i.e., 1000 lnα( serpentine-water ) – which disagree by up to 20‰ when extrapolated to T<200°C. In this study, we present a new empirical calibration of 1000 lnα( serpentine-water ) aiming to improve applications of oxygen isotope geochemistry to very low-T serpentinization (T<100°C). We used the high-spatial resolution capabilities of Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (SIMS) to analyze oxygen isotope ratios in mineral pairs of calcite + serpentine, quartz + serpentine and talc + serpentine co-crystallized at scales≤50μm in six serpentinite samples from the Samail ophiolite (Oman). SIMS analysis shows that the mineral pairs are relatively homogenous in oxygen isotope ratios with variability in δ 18 O values ≤2‰ (2s). Clumped isotope thermometry and petrological constraints indicate crystallization temperatures from 25 to 100°C for the investigated samples. These independent constraints on temperature allowed us to derive 1000 lnα( serpentine-water ) by combining Δ 18 O( quartz-serpentine ), Δ 18 O( talc-serpentine ) and Δ 18 O( calcite-serpentine ) measured by SIMS in the investigated samples with Δ 18 O( quartz-water ), Δ 18 O( talc-water ) and Δ 18 O( calcite-water ) calibrations available in the literature. Our empirical calibration of 1000 lnα( serpentine-water ) = 1.04±0.20 (2SE) × 10 6 /T 2 (T in K), from T = 25 to 100°C, is within uncertainty of former high-temperature empirical calibrations extrapolated to T<100°C and matches experimental calibrations when extrapolated to T=250°C. In conclusion, the new serpentine-water calibration enables more accurate reconstructions of fluid-rock interactions occurring during low-temperature serpentinization processes in various tectonic settings.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1987

Raman spectroscopic investigations of Hg-Cd-Te melts

Raman scattering measurements are reported for a series of Hg sub1-xCd subxTe (with x less than or =0.2) materials from 295 K (room temperature) to 1126K (up to and above their liquidus temperatures), and for Hg sub1-xCd subxTe (x=0.3) at 285K. The samples were contained in high-temperature optically-flat fused silica cell. Variable temperature measurements were effected in a three-zone, high-temperature furnace equipped with optical windows, and monitored externally by three independently programmable temperature controllers. All studies were made in the backscattering geometry using the 5145 A line of an Ar+ ion laser, with incident power less than 250 mW, as the excitiation source. An intensity enhancement is observed for a mode in each of the compositions studied. The frequency of this mode varies with composition, 142/cm for HgTe, and 128/cm for both the Hg sub1-xCd subxTe (x=0.053 and 0.204) samples. In addition, a shift to lower frequency as a function of temperature is observed in all samples. This shift is most prominent for the x=0.053 sample. The temperature dependence of these modes as the liquidus temperatures are achieved and surpassed for these samples is presented as being associated with a structural transition in the Hg-rich compositions of the Hg sub1-xCd subxTe series. To our knowledge, this is the first reported study of Raman scattering by phonons in the melts of these materials.

Morrobel-Sosa, Anny↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Interannual Stability of Cumulative Frequency Distributions for Convective System Size and Intensity

The characteristics of convective system populations in West Africa and the western Pacific tropical cyclone basin were analyzed to investigate whether interannual variability in convective activity in tropical continental and oceanic environments is driven by variations in the number of events during the wet season or by favoring large and/or intense convective systems. Convective systems were defined from TRMM data as a cluster of pixels with an 85 GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature below 255 K and with an area at least 64 km 2. The study database consisted of convective systems in West Africa from May Sep for 1998-2007 and in the western Pacific from May Nov 1998-2007. Annual cumulative frequency distributions for system minimum brightness temperature and system area were constructed for both regions. For both regions, there were no statistically significant differences among the annual curves for system minimum brightness temperature. There were two groups of system area curves, split by the TRMM altitude boost in 2001. Within each set, there was no statistically significant interannual variability. Sub-setting the database revealed some sensitivity in distribution shape to the size of the sampling area, length of sample period, and climate zone. From a regional perspective, the stability of the cumulative frequency distributions implied that the probability that a convective system would attain a particular size or intensity does not change interannually. Variability in the number of convective events appeared to be more important in determining whether a year is wetter or drier than normal.

Mohr, Karen I.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Test Report - Fault Current Through Graphite Filament Reinforced Plastic

Tests were performed to determine the damage to samples of composite material when a current carrying wire is shorted to the surface of the composite material, and to determine whether enough current can flow through the material to blow a fuse before damage can occur. Fault current tests were performed on samples of graphite epoxy materials. Samples consisted of six layers of IM7 graphite fiber mat in Hercules 8552 epoxy resin. A variable power supply provided up to 35 amps of current. The high voltage side of the power supply was attached to a wire at the end of a hinged arm, and the low side was attached to the edge of the sample. To test joints, the return was connected to the edge of one sample, and the high side was shorted to the top of the other sample. Tests show that when current exceeds approximately 5 amps, the graphite glows, and the epoxy melts out at the shorted contact. At higher current levels the epoxy burns. At voltages above 15 volts the epoxy outer coat is easily broken, and fire, flame, and a rise in current occur suddenly. When joints are introduced, resistance is increased, and the maximum current resulting from a short circuit to the graphite epoxy is reduced. This condition can easily result in fault current lower than the circuit breaker limit and higher than the 5 amp ignition level. The shorting contact and the joint become hot spots with melting epoxy, smoke, and fire.

Evans, R. W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evidence for Black Holes in Green Peas from WISE Colors and Variability

We explore the presence of active galactic nuclei (AGNs)/black holes in Green Pea galaxies (GPs), motivated by the presence of high-ionization emission lines such as He ii and [Ne iii] in their optical spectra. In order to identify AGN candidates, we used mid-infrared (MIR) photometric observations from the all-sky Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) mission for a sample of 1004 GPs. Considering only >5σ detections with no contamination from neighboring sources in AllWISE, we select 31 GPs out of 134 as candidate AGNs based on a stringent three-band WISE color diagnostic. Using multi-epoch photometry in W1 and W2 bands based on time-resolved unWISE coadd images, we find two sources exhibiting variability in both the WISE bands among 112 GPs with W1 ≤16 mag and no contamination from neighboring sources in unWISE. These two variable sources were selected as AGNs by the WISE three-band color diagnostic as well. Compared to variable AGN fractions observed among low-mass galaxy samples in previous studies, we find a higher fraction (~1.8%) of MIR variable sources among GPs, which demonstrates the uniqueness and importance of studying these extreme objects. Through this work, we demonstrate that MIR diagnostics are promising tools to select AGNs that may be missed by other selection techniques (including optical emission-line ratios and X-ray emission) in star formation-dominated, low-mass, low-metallicity galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1988

Spatial and temporal variability of VAS radiance measurements by structure and correlation analysis

The statistical structure function analysis presently applied to VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) measurements has been extended to include time, and yields structure plots in either two spatial dimensions or one spatial dimension and time that indicate three-dimensional measurement variability. The analyses that include time as a coordinate also yield an indication of the mean speed and direction of the analyzed data. Results for three-hourly VAS data indicate that sampling at a high, approximately 1-hour, frequency is required in order to correctly monitor VAS measurements' temporal variability in a way equivalent to high spatial resolution.

Hillger, Donald W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A machine learning approach for identifying variables associated with risk of developing neutralizing antidrug antibodies to factor VIII

A key unmet need in the management of hemophilia A (HA) is the lack of clinically validated markers that are associated with the development of neutralizing antibodies to Factor VIII (FVIII) (commonly referred to as inhibitors). This study aimed to identify relevant biomarkers for FVIII inhibition using Machine Learning (ML) and Explainable AI (XAI) using the My Life Our Future (MLOF) research repository. The dataset includes biologically relevant variables such as age, race, sex, ethnicity, and the variants in the F8 gene. In addition, we previously carried out Human Leukocyte Antigen Class II (HLA-II) typing on samples obtained from the MLOF repository. Using this information, we derived other patient-specific biologically and genetically important variables. These included identifying the number of foreign FVIII derived peptides, based on the alignment of the endogenous FVIII and infused drug sequences, and the foreign-peptide HLA-II molecule binding affinity calculated using NetMHCIIpan. The data were processed and trained with multiple ML classification models to identify the top performing models. The top performing model was then chosen to apply XAI via SHAP, (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to identify the variables critical for the prediction of FVIII inhibitor development in a hemophilia A patient. Using XAI we provide a robust and ranked identification of variables that could be predictive for developing inhibitors to FVIII drugs in hemophilia A patients. These variables could be validated as biomarkers and used in making clinical decisions and during drug development. The top five variables for predicting inhibitor development based on SHAP values are: (i) the baseline activity of the FVIII protein, (ii) mean affinity of all foreign peptides for HLA DRB 3, 4, & 5 alleles, (iii) mean affinity of all foreign peptides for HLA DRB1 alleles), (iv) the minimum affinity among all foreign peptides for HLA DRB1 alleles, and (v) F8 mutation type.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Variable Iron K(alpha) Lines in Seyfert 1 Galaxies

We find that variability of the iron K alpha line is common in Seyfert 1 galaxies. Using data from the ASCA archive for objects that have been observed more than once during the mission, we study the time-averaged spectra from individual observations, thereby probing variability on timescales that range from days to years. Since the statistics of the data do not warrant searches for line variability in terms of a complex physical model, we use a simple Gaussian to model the gross shape of the line and then use the centroid energy, intensity, and equivalent width as robust indicators of changes in the line profile. We find that approximately 70% of Seyfert 1 galaxies (10 out of 15) show variability in at least one of these parameters: the centroid energy, intensity, and equivalent width vary in six, four, and eight sources, respectively. Because of the low signal-to-noise ratio, limited sampling, and time averaging, we consider these results to represent lower limits to the rate of incidence of variability. In most cases changes in the line do not appear to track changes in the continuum. In particular, we find no evidence for variability of the line intensity in NGC 4151, suggesting an origin in a region larger than the putative accretion disk, where most of the iron line has been thought to originate. Mrk 279 is investigated on short timescales. The time-averaged effective line energy (as measured by the Gaussian center energy, which is weighted by emission in the entire line profile) is 6.5 keV in the galaxy rest frame. As the continuum flux increases by 20% in a few hours, the Fe K line responds within approximately 10,000 seconds with the effective line energy increasing by 0.22 keV (approximately 10,500 kilometers per second). We also examine the ROSAT PSPC spectrum of Mrk 279 but find inconsistencies with ASCA. Problems with the ASCA and ROSAT calibration that affect simultaneous spectral fits at low energies are discussed in an appendix.

Weaver, K. A.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Stable-carbon isotope ratios for sourcing the nerve-agent precursor methylphosphonic dichloride and its products

The ability to connect a chemical threat agent to a specific batch of a synthetic precursor can provide a fingerprint to contribute to effective forensic investigations. Stable isotope analysis can leverage intrinsic, natural isotopic variability within the molecules of a threat agent to unlock embedded chemical fingerprints in the material. Methylphosphonic dichloride (DC) is a chemical precursor to the nerve agent sarin. It is converted to methylphosphonic difluoride (DF) as part of the sarin synthesis process. We used a suite of commercially available DC stocks to both evaluate the potential for δ13C analysis to be used as a fingerprinting tool in sarin-related investigations and to develop sample preparation techniques (using chemical hydrolysis) that can simplify isotopic analysis of DC and its synthetic products. We demonstrate that natural isotopic variability in DC results in at least three distinct, isotope-resolved clusters within the thirteen stocks we analyzed. Isotopic variability in the carbon feedstock (i.e., methanol) used for DC synthesis is likely inherited by the DC samples we measured. We demonstrate that the hydrolysis of DC and DF to methylphosphonic acid (MPA) can be used as a preparative step for isotopic analysis because the reaction does not impart a measureable isotopic fractionation. MPA is more chemically stable, less toxic, and easier to handle than DC or DF. Further, the hydrolysis method we demonstrated can be applied to a suite of other precursors or to sarin itself, thereby providing a potentially valuable forensic tool.

Moran, James J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in humans in the United States. Since the introduction of the disease in 1999, incidence levels have stabilized in many regions, allowing for analysis of climate conditions that shape the spatial structure of disease incidence. Our goal was to identify the seasonal climate variables that influence the spatial extent and magnitude of WNV incidence in humans. We developed a predictive model of contemporary mean annual WNV incidence using U.S. county-level case reports from 2005 to 2019 and seasonally averaged climate variables. We used a random forest model that had an out-of-sample model performance of R 2 =0.61. Our model accurately captured the V-shaped area of higher WNV incidence that extends from states on the Canadian border south through the middle of the Great Plains. It also captured a region of moderate WNV incidence in the southern Mississippi Valley. The highest levels of WNV incidence were in regions with dry and cold winters and wet and mild summers. The random forest model classified counties with average winter precipitation levels <23.3 mm/month as having incidence levels over 11 times greater than those of counties that are wetter. Among the climate predictors, winter precipitation, fall precipitation, and winter temperature were the three most important predictive variables. We consider which aspects of the WNV transmission cycle climate conditions may benefit the most and argued that dry and cold winters are climate conditions optimal for the mosquito species key to amplifying WNV transmission. Our statistical model may be useful in projecting shifts in WNV risk in response to climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗