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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Field-scale dynamics of planting dates in the US Corn Belt from 2000 to 2020

Crop planting dates are a dynamic feature of agricultural systems that respond to short- and long-term climate signals, crop and cultivar selection, and technology changes. Planting date records are essential for yield gap analyses, accurate crop modeling, and tracking farmer adaptations to weather and climate change. Although planting dates have high variation at local scales due to heterogeneity in farm resources and decision-making, available long-term data on planting dates is largely restricted to aggregated regional statistics or, at best, satellite-derived datasets with limited spatiotemporal extent and at resolutions unable to distinguish individual fields (> 250 m). Here, we generated retrospective annual field-scale (30 m) planting date maps for both maize and soybeans spanning 2000-2020 across a 12 state region in the United States Corn Belt based on Landsat satellite data and a large ground sample of over 28,000 maize and soybean fields. Using training data from 2015-2020 for model selection, we found that planting date predictions improved with harmonic regression of Landsat data and additional annual weather covariates. The preferred random forests model approximately doubled performance compared to a null model based on state median planting dates, capturing 47% of field-level variation for maize (mean absolute error, MAE = 7.4 days) and 44% for soybeans (MAE = 7.5 days) against held-out ground truth test data for 2008-2014. We also evaluated the full 2000-2020 dataset with state agricultural statistics, finding strong agreement with median planting dates for maize (R 2 = 0.76, MAE = 4.4 days) and slightly lower agreement for soybeans (R 2 = 0.65, MAE = 5.4 days) when aggregated to the state level. We then used this new dataset to analyze environmental determinants of planting dates at a finer-scale than previously possible, controlling for unobserved variation at the sub-state district level. We found that during 2000-2020, each standard deviation increase in rainfall delayed planting by ~ 2.5 days, and fields with higher soil productivity ratings tended to be planted earlier. We did not find meaningful trends over the last two decades in planting dates for maize or soybeans, in contrast to trends towards earlier planting dates late last century and predicted for this period in climate adaptation studies. We hypothesize increases in early season rainfall may have inhibited these shifts towards earlier planting. Remotely sensed planting dates will be a useful tool for yield gap analyses, crop simulation modeling, and ongoing assessment of climate adaptation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantitative 14 N NMR with Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of Nitrate/Nitrite in Alkaline Nuclear Waste

While monitoring of nitrate and nitrite concentrations is important for managing corrosion in nuclear waste systems, existing analytical methods are hindered by turbidity, spectral interference, and delays from sample handling. Here, we demonstrate quantitative 14 N nuclear magnetic resonance (qNMR) spectroscopy as a direct, matrix-tolerant approach for nitrate and nitrite detection at natural abundance. Monte Carlo resampling was integrated into the workflow to quantify random error, establish precision–time tradeoffs, and separate noise-limited uncertainty from systematic bias arising from shimming, transmitter offset, or excitation pulse conditions. Quantification of nitrate and nitrite were validated in controlled alkaline matrix challenges and in 18-component Hanford-type simulants. These results establish 14 N qNMR as a practical, uncertainty-bounded tool for monitoring redox-active nitrogen species in chemically complex environments and provide a generalizable framework for quantitative analysis of quadrupolar nuclei.

Graham, Trent R. [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

Differentiable Quantum Programming with Unbounded Loops

The emergence of variational quantum applications has led to the development of automatic differentiation techniques in quantum computing. Existing work has formulated differentiable quantum programming with bounded loops, providing a framework for scalable gradient calculation by quantum means for training quantum variational applications. However, promising parameterized quantum applications, e.g., quantum walk and unitary implementation, cannot be trained in the existing framework due to the natural involvement of unbounded loops. To fill in the gap, we provide the first differentiable quantum programming framework with unbounded loops, including a newly designed differentiation rule, code transformation, and their correctness proof. Technically, we introduce a randomized estimator for derivatives to deal with the infinite sum in the differentiation of unbounded loops, whose applicability in classical and probabilistic programming is also discussed. We implement our framework with Python and Q# and demonstrate a reasonable sample efficiency. Through extensive case studies, we showcase an exciting application of our framework in automatically identifying close-to-optimal parameters for several parameterized quantum applications.

Computer Science↗

Microbial Communities Influence Soil Dissolved Organic Carbon Concentration by Altering Metabolite Composition

Rapid microbial growth in the early phase of plant litter decomposition is viewed as an important component of soil organic matter (SOM) formation. However, the microbial taxa and chemical substrates that correlate with carbon storage are not well resolved. The complexity of microbial communities and diverse substrate chemistries that occur in natural soils make it difficult to identify links between community membership and decomposition processes in the soil environment. To identify potential relationships between microbes, soil organic matter, and their impact on carbon storage, we used sand microcosms to control for external environmental factors such as changes in temperature and moisture as well as the variability in available carbon that exist in soil cores. Using Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) on microcosm samples from early phase litter decomposition, we found that protein- and tannin-like compounds exhibited the strongest correlation to dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. Proteins correlated positively with DOC concentration, while tannins correlated negatively with DOC. Through random forest, neural network, and indicator species analyses, we identified 42 bacterial and 9 fungal taxa associated with DOC concentration. The majority of bacterial taxa (26 out of 42 taxa) belonged to the phylum Proteobacteria while all fungal taxa belonged to the phylum Ascomycota. Additionally, we identified significant connections between microorganisms and protein-like compounds and found that most taxa (12/14) correlated negatively with proteins indicating that microbial consumption of proteins is likely a significant driver of DOC concentration. This research links DOC concentration with microbial production and/or decomposition of specific metabolites to improve our understanding of microbial metabolism and carbon persistence.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Review of LACIE methodology, a project evaluation of technical acceptability

The author has identified the following significant results. Results indicated that the LANDSAT data and the classification technology can estimate the small grains area within a sample segment accurately and reliably enough to meet the LACIE goals. Overall, the LACIE estimates in a 9 x 11 kilometer segment agree well with ground and aircraft determined area within these segments. The estimated c.v. of the random classification error was acceptably small. These analyses confirmed that bias introduced by various factors, such as LANDSAT spatial resolution, lack of spectral resolution, classifier bias, and repeatability, was not excessive in terms of the required performance criterion. Results of these tests did indicate a difficulty in differentiating wheat from other closely related small grains. However, satisfactory wheat area estimates were obtained through the reduction of the small grain area estimates in accordance with relative amounts of these crops as determined from historic data; these procedures are being further refined.

Source record↗

A spring window for geobotanical anomaly detection

The observation of senescence of deciduous vegetation to detect soil heavy metal mineralization is discussed. A gridded sampling of two sites of Quercus alba L. in south-central Virginia in 1982 is studied. The data reveal that smaller leaf blade lengths are observed in the soil site with copper, lead, and zinc concentrations. A random study in 1983 of red and white Q. rubra L., Q. prinus L., and Acer rubrum L., to confirm previous results is described. The observations of blade length and bud breaks show a 7-10 day lag in growth in the mineral site for the oak trees; however, the maple trees are not influenced by the minerals.

Bell, R.↗

Interpretation of Variations in Modis-Measured Greenness Levels of Amazon Forests During 2000 to 2009

This work investigates variations in satellite-measured greenness of Amazon forests using ten years of NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data. Corruption of optical remote sensing data with clouds and aerosols is prevalent in this region; filtering corrupted data causes spatial sampling constraints, as well as reducing the record length, which introduces large biases in estimates of greenness anomalies. The EVI data, analyzed in multiple ways and taking into account EVI accuracy, consistently show a pattern of negligible changes in the greenness levels of forests both in the area affected by drought in 2005 and outside it. Small random patches of anomalous greening and browning-especially prominent in 2009-appear in all ten years, irrespective of contemporaneous variations in precipitation, but with no persistence over time. The fact that over 90% of the EVI anomalies are insignificantly small-within the envelope of error (95% confidence interval) in EVI-warrants cautious interpretation of these results: there were no changes in the greenness of these forests, or if there were changes, the EVI data failed to capture these either because the constituent reflectances were saturated or the moderate resolution precluded viewing small-scale variations. This suggests a need for more accurate and spatially resolved synoptic views from satellite data and corroborating comprehensive ground sampling to understand the greenness dynamics of these forests.

MODIS↗

Resilient information and inference networks under mixed-trust sensing

With ubiquitous digitization, sensing, and computational intelligence deployed in increasingly more and broader domains, including critical infrastructure, potentially misleading and destabilizing effects of multimodal anomalies and adversarial behavior are growing in importance. Here, we develop randomized and reinforcement learning-based strategies for strategically recruiting and utilizing deployed (and, thus, vulnerable and potentially faulty and/or compromised) nodes from information and inference networks, while defending against adversaries that attempt to misguide assessments of inferred variables. Recognizing that, besides communication and other costs, sampling from any observable node can either provide true data or dangerously expose our inference to misinformation (without being easily distinguishable what actually happens), the proposed strategies proceed by progressively recruiting nodes and cautiously scaling their information contribution based on assumed, or, in our reinforcement learning approach, intelligently weighed trustworthiness, with the learning approach also considering network-wide, threat-inclusive risk/value tradeoffs. While avoiding the hardware, communication, analytical and computational burden of explicit redundancy, the proposed defensive schemes enable on-the-fly assessments of underlying processes, and system-wide situational awareness with demonstrable resilience against adversarial activities.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Probabilistic Model for Global EMIC Wave Activity Using Van Allen Probes Observations

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves play a key role in radiation belt dynamics through resonant interactions. However, their low occurrence probability, high variability, and spatial intermittency pose challenges for accurate modeling. In this study, we present a machine learning (ML)-based global EMIC wave model built on the entire data set from the Van Allen Probes mission. To capture the distinct statistical characteristics of wave occurrence and amplitude, the model is separated into two modules: an occurrence model trained using ML techniques, and a wave amplitude model sampled from observed probability distributions. The input parameters are limited to real-time or predictable variables to ensure practical applicability. Our model shows strong performance across the entire test set and demonstrates improved predictive capability over a baseline random occurrence model, particularly during quiet geomagnetic conditions. Evaluation during both quiet and active periods confirms the model's ability to represent the clustered and intermittent nature of EMIC wave activity. Furthermore, the model provides global estimates of wave power, enabling integration with radiation belt electron data and showing signatures consistent with wave-induced scattering. We found a good correlation between the global wave activity from the model and relativistic electron observation by Van Allen Probes, regardless of the availability of in situ wave observations. The modular structure of the model also allows for straightforward expansion for additional wave properties, such as wave frequency, which can be modeled independently. This flexible, event-sensitive approach offers a promising framework for data-driven radiation belt simulations and space weather applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Stellar mass, not dynamical mass nor gravitational potential, drives the mass–metallicity relationship

The widely known relation between stellar mass and gas metallicity [mass–metallicity relation (MZR)] in galaxies is often ascribed to the higher capability of more massive systems to retain metals against the action of galactic outflows. In this scenario the stellar mass would simply be an indirect proxy of the dynamical mass or of the gravitational potential. We test this scenario by using a sample of more than 1000 star-forming galaxies from the MaNGA (Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory) survey for which dynamical masses have been accurately determined. By using three different methods (average dispersion, partial correlation coefficients, and random forest), we unambiguously find that the gas metallicity depends primarily and fundamentally on the stellar mass. Once the dependence on stellar mass is taken into account, there is little or no dependence on either dynamical mass or gravitational potential (and, if anything, the metallicity dependence on the latter quantities is inverted). Our result indicates that the MZR is not caused by the retention of metals in more massive galaxies. The direct, fundamental dependence of metallicity on stellar mass suggests the much simpler scenario in which the MZR is just a consequence of the stellar mass being proportional to the integral of metals production in the galaxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Homing Missile Control System to Reduce the Effects of Radome Diffraction

The problem of radome diffraction in radar-controlled homing missiles at high speeds and high altitudes is considered from the point of view of developing a control system configuration which will alleviate the deleterious effects of the diffraction. It is shown that radome diffraction is in essence a kinematic feedback of body angular velocities which causes the radar to sense large apparent line-of-sight angular velocities. The normal control system cannot distinguish between the erroneous and actual line-of-sight rates, and entirely wrong maneuvers are produced which result in large miss distances. The problem is resolved by adding to the control system a special-purpose computer which utilizes measured body angular velocity to extract from the radar output true line-of-sight information for use in steering the missile. The computer operates on the principle of sampling and storing the radar output at instants when the body angular velocity is low and using this stored information for maneuvering commands. In addition, when the angular velocity is not low the computer determines a radome diffraction compensation which is subtracted from the radar output to reduce the error in the sampled information. Analog simulation results for the proposed control system operating in a coplanar (vertical plane) attack indicate a potential decrease in miss distance to an order of magnitude below that for a conventional system. Effects of glint noise, random target maneuvers, initial heading errors, and missile maneuverability are considered in the investigation.

Smith, Gerald L.↗

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry: Evaluation of Estimates Using Independent Data - Part 2

Rainfall rate estimates from space-borne k&ents are generally accepted as reliable by a majority of the atmospheric science commu&y. One-of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRh4M) facility rain rate algorithms is based upon passive microwave observations fiom the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI). Part I of this study describes improvements in the TMI algorithm that are required to introduce cloud latent heating and drying as additional algorithm products. Here, estimates of surface rain rate, convective proportion, and latent heating are evaluated using independent ground-based estimates and satellite products. Instantaneous, OP5resolution estimates of surface rain rate over ocean fiom the improved TMI algorithm are well correlated with independent radar estimates (r approx. 0.88 over the Tropics), but bias reduction is the most significant improvement over forerunning algorithms. The bias reduction is attributed to the greater breadth of cloud-resolving model simulations that support the improved algorithm, and the more consistent and specific convective/stratiform rain separation method utilized. The bias of monthly, 2.5 deg. -resolution estimates is similarly reduced, with comparable correlations to radar estimates. Although the amount of independent latent heating data are limited, TMI estimated latent heating profiles compare favorably with instantaneous estimates based upon dual-Doppler radar observations, and time series of surface rain rate and heating profiles are generally consistent with those derived from rawinsonde analyses. Still, some biases in profile shape are evident, and these may be resolved with: (a) additional contextual information brought to the estimation problem, and/or; (b) physically-consistent and representative databases supporting the algorithm. A model of the random error in instantaneous, 0.5 deg-resolution rain rate estimates appears to be consistent with the levels of error determined from TMI comparisons to collocated radar. Error model modifications for non-raining situations will be required, however. Sampling error appears to represent only a fraction of the total error in monthly, 2S0-resolution TMI estimates; the remaining error is attributed to physical inconsistency or non-representativeness of cloud-resolving model simulated profiles supporting the algorithm.

Yang, Song↗

Detection in fixed and random noise in foveal and parafoveal vision explained by template learning

Foveal and parafoveal contrast detection thresholds for Gabor and checkerboard targets were measured in white noise by means of a two-interval forced-choice paradigm. Two white-noise conditions were used: fixed and twin. In the fixed noise condition a single noise sample was presented in both intervals of all the trials. In the twin noise condition the same noise sample was used in the two intervals of a trial, but a new sample was generated for each trial. Fixed noise conditions usually resulted in lower thresholds than twin noise. Template learning models are presented that attribute this advantage of fixed over twin noise either to fixed memory templates' reducing uncertainty by incorporation of the noise or to the introduction, by the learning process itself, of more variability in the twin noise condition. Quantitative predictions of the template learning process show that it contributes to the accelerating nonlinear increase in performance with signal amplitude at low signal-to-noise ratios.

NASA Center ARC↗

Stabilization of the 81-channel coherent beam combination using machine learning

We develop a rapidly converging algorithm for stabilizing a large channel-count diffractive optical coherent beam combination. An 81-beam combiner is controlled by a novel, machine-learning based, iterative method to correct the optical phases, operating on an experimentally calibrated numerical model. A neural-network is trained to detect phase errors based on interference pattern recognition of uncombined beams adjacent to the combined one. Due to the non-uniqueness of solutions in the full space of possible phases, the network is trained within a limited phase perturbation/error range. This also reduces the number of samples needed for training. Simulations have proven that the network can converge in one step for small phase perturbations. When the trained neural-network is applied to a realistic case of 360 degree full range, an iterative scheme exploits random walking at the beginning, with the accuracy of prediction on phase feedback direction, to allow the neural-network to step into the training range for fast convergence. This neural-network-based iterative method of phase detection works tens of times faster than the commonly used stochastic parallel gradient descent approach (SPGD) using a single-detector and random dither when both are tested with random phase perturbations.

Wang, Dan↗

Effects of high concentrate rations on ruminal fermentation and microbiota of yaks

Ruminal microflora is closely correlated with the ruminant’s diet. However, information regarding the effect of high concentrate diets on rumen microflora in yaks is lacking. In the current study, 24 healthy male yaks were randomly assigned to two groups, each fed with different diets: less concentrate (LC; concentrate: coarse = 40: 60) and high concentrate (HC; concentrate: coarse = 80: 20) diets. Subsequently, a 21-day feeding trial was performed with the yaks, and rumen fluid samples were collected and compared using 16 s rRNA sequencing. The results showed that NH 3 -N, total VFA, acetate, butyrate, isobutyrate, and isovalerate were significantly higher in the HC group than that in the LC group ( p < 0.05), while microbial diversity and richness were significantly lower in the HC group ( p < 0.05). Principal coordinate analysis indicated that rumen microflora was significantly different in LC and HC groups ( p < 0.05). In the rumen, phyla Firmicutes and Bacteroidota were the most abundant bacteria, with Firmicutes being more abundant, and Bacteroidota being less abundant in the HC group than those found in the LC group. Christensenellaceae_R-7_group and Prevotella are the highest abundant ones at the genus level. The relative abundance of Acetitomaculum , Ruminococcus , and Candidatus_Saccharimonas were significantly higher in the HC group than that in the LC group ( p < 0.05), while the relative abundance of Olsenella was significantly lower in the HC group than in the LC group ( p < 0.05). Compared to the LC group, the relative abundance of Prevotella , Ruminococcus , and Candidatus_Saccharimonas was significantly higher in the HC group. The relative abundances of Prevotella , Prevotellaceae_UCG-003 , Olsenella , Ruminococcus , Acetitomaculum , Candidatus_Saccharimonas , and NK4A214_group were correlated with ruminal fermentation parameters ( p < 0.05). Furthermore, PICRUSt 2 estimation indicated that microbial genes associated with valine, leucine, and isoleucine biosynthesis were overexpressed in the rumen microflora of yaks in the HC group ( p < 0.05). Conclusively, our results suggest that high concentrate diets affect the microflora composition and fermentation function in yak rumen. The present findings would provide new insights into the health of yaks under high concentrate feeding conditions and serve as a potent reference for the short-term fattening processes of yaks.

Pang, Kaiyue↗

STS-1 operational flight profile. Volume 5: Descent cycle 3. Appendix D: GRTLS six degree of freedom Monte Carlo dispersion analysis

The results of a six degree of freedom (6-DOF) nonlinear Monte Carlo dispersion analysis for the latest glide return to landing site (GRTLS) abort trajectory for the Space Transportation System 1 Flight are presented. For this GRTLS, the number two main engine fails at 262.5 seconds ground elapsed time. Fifty randomly selected simulations, initialized at external tank separation, are analyzed. The initial covariance matrix is a 20 x 20 matrix and includes navigation errors and dispersions in position and velocity, time, accelerometer bias, and inertial platform misalinements. In all 50 samples, speedbrake, rudder, elevon, and body flap hinge moments are acceptable. Transitions to autoland begin before 9,000 feet and there are no tailscrapes. Navigation derived dynamic pressure accuracies exceed the flight control system constraints above Mach 2.5. Three out of 50 landings exceeded tire specification limit speed of 222 knots. Pilot manual landings are expected to reduce landing speed by landing farther downrange.

Montez, M. N.↗

Stochastic stability properties of jump linear systems

Jump linear systems are defined as a family of linear systems with randomly jumping parameters (usually governed by a Markov jump process) and are used to model systems subject to failures or changes in structure. The authors study stochastic stability properties in jump linear systems and the relationship among various moment and sample path stability properties. It is shown that all second moment stability properties are equivalent and are sufficient for almost sure sample path stability, and a testable necessary and sufficient condition for second moment stability is derived. The Lyapunov exponent method for the study of almost sure sample stability is discussed, and a theorem which characterizes the Lyapunov exponents of jump linear systems is presented.

Feng, Xiangbo↗