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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Modeling Solar Flare Hard X-ray Images and Spectra Observed with RHESSI

Observations obtained with the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) of a flare on February 20, 2002 indicate a hard X-ray (HXR) coronal source at or near the top of a flare loop (called a HXR looptop source). The existence of the HXR looptop source suggests that magnetic reconnection, which is believed to power flares, occurs above the loop. In order to explain this HXR looptop source, I created a steady-state particle transport model, in which high-energy electrons are continuously injected at the top of a semicircular flare loop. Based on the simulation results, I find that the model predictions are consistent with the RHESSI observations in many respects, but the spectrum of the looptop source obtained from the model is steeper than that from the RHESSI data. This suggests that, instead of being accelerated above the loop as generally believed, the particles might be accelerated in the looptop itself. RHESSI-observations of three other homologous flares that occurred between April 14 and 16, 2002, provide strong evidence for the presence of a large scale current sheet above a flare loop, which is the basis of standard flare models. The most convincing finding is the presence of the temperature distribution of a separate coronal source above the flare loops: the hotter part of the coronal source was located lower in altitude the cooler part. Together with the fact that the hotter flare loops are higher than the cooler loops, the observations support the existence of a large-scale current sheet between the top of the flare loops and the coronal source above. Blob-Like sources along a line above the loop in the decay phase of the April 15, 2002, flare, which are suggestive of magnetic islands initiated by the tearing-mode instability, and the observation of a cusp structure in microwaves, further support the presence of the current sheet. The observations of the three homologous flares reveal two other features which are beyond the predictions of the standard flare models: the downward motion of flare loops in the early impulsive phase of each flare, and an initially stationary coronal source above the loops. These features me believed to be related to the formation and development of a current sheet. In particular, the downward loop motion seem to be a common phenomenon in flares, suggesting the necessity for modifications to the existing standard flare. models. Finally, thanks to the broad energy coverage of the RHESSI spectra, a low-energy cutoff of 28 (plus or minus 2) keV in the nonthermal electron distribution was determined for the April 15, 2002, flare. As a result, the energy carried by the nonthermal electrons is found to be comparable to the thermal energy of the flare, but one order of magnitude larger than the kinetic energy of the associated coronal mass ejection. The method used to deduce the electron low-energy cutoff will be useful in the analyses of similar events.

Sui, Linhui↗

Determination of mean gravity anomalies in the Taiwan Island

The fitting and proper regression coefficients were made of one hundred seventeen 10 x 10' blocks with observed gravity data and corresponding elevation in the Taiwan Island. To compare five different predicted models, and the proper one for the mean gravity anomalies were determined. The predicted gravity anomalies of the non-observed gravity blocks were decided when the coefficients obtained through the model with the weighted mean method. It was suggested that the mean gravity anomalies of 10 x 10' blocks should be made when comprehensive the observed and predicted data.

Chang, Ruey-Gang↗

Meteorological data-processing package

METPAK, meteorological data-processing package of satellite data used to develop cloud-tracking maps, is given. Data can develop and enhance numerical prediction models for mesoscale phenomena and improve ability to detect and predict storms.

Billingsly, J. B.↗

Turbulent convection within rapidly rotating superadiabatic fluids with horizontal temperature gradients

A model is developed for small scale thermally driven turbulent convection in rapidly rotating systems. The Boussinesq equations of adiabatic and inviscid flow are perturbed about a basic state which is superadiabatic and which contains a horizontal temperature gradient balanced by a geostrophic wind. The growth rates and length scales of the most unstable modes are determined. It is found that these modes are either zonally or latitudinally symmetric, depending on the latitude and the horizontal temperature gradient. The transports of heat and momentum by the modes are computed. The linear amplitudes are assumed to be limited by shear instability. The model predicts a latitude dependent eddy diffusivity. The applicability of the model to astrophysical and planetary bodies is briefly discussed.

Flasar, F. M.↗

Structural analysis of the controlled impact demonstration of a jet transport airplane

An analytical method has been developed for assessing crash dynamics of large transport aircraft, such as in the NASA Controlled Impact Demonstration (CID) jet crash test on December 1, 1984. The DYCAST nonlinear finite-element computer code was used in a series of progressively more difficult tasks to model complete transport aircraft crashes. Single aircraft frames and fuselage section vertical drop tests were modeled and analyzed to obtain comparisons with experimental data and to develop hybrid element crash springs for use in the large CID model. Predictions of crash and acceleration levels from a symmetric CID model agreed well with data from the CID experiment.

Fasanella, E. L.↗

Joule-Thomson effect and internal convection heat transfer in turbulent He II flow

The temperature rise in highly turbulent He II flowing in tubing was measured in the temperature range 1.6-2.1 K. The effect of internal convection heat transport on the predicted temperature profiles is calculated from the two-fluid model with mutual friction. The model predictions are in good agreement with the measurements, provided that the pressure gradient term is retained in the expression for internal convection heat flow.

Walstrom, P. L.↗

Modelling a nickel cadmium battery as a homogeneous device

A computer model of the nickel-cadmium (Ni-Cd) battery cell has been developed. This one-dimensional macrohomogeneous model predicts performance for Ni-Cd battery cells based on electrochemical phenomena. Reaction rates, concentrations, current densities, porosities, and potentials are predicted over a range of conditions. A description of the model, some initial results, and plans for continued development are presented.

Timmerman, Paul J.↗

A vorticity dynamics based model for the turbulent dissipation: Model development and validation

A new model dissipation rate equation is proposed based on the dynamic equation of the mean-square vorticity fluctuation for large Reynolds number turbulence. The advantage of working with the vorticity fluctuation equation is that the physical meanings of the terms in this equation are more clear than those in the dissipation rate equation. Hence, the model development based on the vorticity fluctuation equation is more straightforward. The resulting form of the model equation is consistent with the spectral energy cascade analysis introduced by Lumley. The proposed model dissipation rate equation is numerically well behaved and can be applied to any level of turbulence modeling. It is applied to a realizable eddy viscosity model. Flows that are examined include: rotating homogeneous shear flows; free shear flows; a channel flow and flat plate boundary layers with and without pressure gradients; and backward facing step separated flows. In most cases, the present model predictions show considerable improvement over the standard kappa-epsilon model.

Shih, Tsan-Hsing↗

Cost and schedule estimation study report

This report describes the analysis performed and the findings of a study of the software development cost and schedule estimation models used by the Flight Dynamics Division (FDD), Goddard Space Flight Center. The study analyzes typical FDD projects, focusing primarily on those developed since 1982. The study reconfirms the standard SEL effort estimation model that is based on size adjusted for reuse; however, guidelines for the productivity and growth parameters in the baseline effort model have been updated. The study also produced a schedule prediction model based on empirical data that varies depending on application type. Models for the distribution of effort and schedule by life-cycle phase are also presented. Finally, this report explains how to use these models to plan SEL projects.

Condon, Steve↗

Progress in simulating industrial flows using two-equation models: Can more be achieved with further research?

This viewgraph presentation provides a brief review of two-equation eddy-viscosity models (TEM's) from the perspective of applied CFD. It provides objective assessment of both well-known and newer models, compares model predictions from various TEM's with experiments, identifies sources of modeling error and gives historical perspective of their effects on model performance and assessment, and recommends directions for future research on TEM's.

Haroutunian, Vahe↗

Tropospheric chemical models

The differences in atmospheric composition over the globe and the short- and long-term variations in this composition are the net effect of several atmospheric and biospheric processes: biospheric emissions, atmospheric circulation, atmospheric chemical transformations and finally deposition back to the surface. Accurate and realistic atmospheric chemistry and circulation models are essential to interpret the observed global distributions and trends of atmospheric species in terms of these underlying processes. Comparisons between model predictions and observations test current understanding of these processes and models used in conjunction with inverse methods allow deductions of the rates of these processes from the observations. With the planned inclusion of at least CO and CH4 observations on the Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites, together with the large global data set expected from in situ observations under the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) Project, the further development of global three-dimensional high-resolution atmospheric chemistry and circulation models in order to interpret this new data is a high-priority endeavor.

Prinn, R. G.↗

Geometrical modelling of textile reinforcements

The mechanical properties of textile composites are dictated by the arrangement of yarns contained with the material. Thus to develop a comprehensive understanding of the performance of these materials, it is necessary to develop a geometrical model of the fabric structure. This task is quite complex, as the fabric is made form highly flexible yarn systems which experience a certain degree of compressability. Furthermore there are tremendous forces acting on the fabric during densification typically resulting in yarn displacement and misorientation. The objective of this work is to develop a methodology for characterizing the geometry of yarns within a fabric structure including experimental techniques for evaluating these models. Furthermore, some applications of these geometric results to mechanical prediction models are demonstrated. Although more costly than its predecessors, the present analysis is based on the detailed architecture developed by one of the authors and his colleagues and accounts for many of the geometric complexities that other analyses ignore.

Pastore, Christopher M.↗

Real-Time Inhibitor Recession Measurements in Two Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motors

Real-time internal motor insulation char line recession measurements have been evaluated for two full-scale static tests of the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM). These char line recession measurements were recorded on the forward facing propellant grain inhibitors to better understand the thermal performance of these inhibitors. The RSRM propellant grain inhibitors are designed to erode away during motor operation, thus making it difficult to use post-fire observations to determine inhibitor thermal performance. Therefore, this new internal motor instrumentation is invaluable in establishing an accurate understanding of inhibitor recession versus motor operation time. The data for the first test was presented at the 37th AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint Propulsion Conference and Exhibit (AIAA 2001-3280) in July 2001. Since that time, a second full scale static test has delivered additional real-time data on inhibitor thermal performance. The evaluation of this data is presented in this paper. The second static test, in contrast to the first test, used a slightly different arrangement of instrumentation in the inhibitors. This instrumentation has yielded a better understanding of the inhibitor time dependent inboard tip recession. Graphs of inhibitor recession profiles with time are presented. Inhibitor thermal ablation models have been created from theoretical principals. The model predictions compare favorably with data from both tests. This verified modeling effort is important to support new inhibitor designs for a five segment Space Shuttle solid rocket motor. The internal instrumentation project on RSRM static tests is providing unique opportunities for other real-time internal motor measurements that could not otherwise be directly quantified.

McWhorter, B. B.↗

Improving Land-Surface Model Hydrology: Is an Explicit Aquifer Model Better than a Deeper Soil Profile?

Land surface models (LSMs) are computer programs, similar to weather and climate prediction models, which simulate the storage and movement of water (including soil moisture, snow, evaporation, and runoff) after it falls to the ground as precipitation. It is not currently possible to measure all of the variables of interest everywhere on Earth with sufficient accuracy. Hence LSMs have been developed to integrate the available information, including satellite observations, using powerful computers, in order to track water storage and redistribution. The maps are used to improve weather forecasts, support water resources and agricultural applications, and study the Earth's water cycle and climate variability. Recently, the models have begun to simulate groundwater storage. In this paper, we compare several possible approaches, and examine the pitfalls associated with trying to estimate aquifer parameters (such as porosity) that are required by the models. We find that explicit representation of groundwater, as opposed to the addition of deeper soil layers, considerably decreases the sensitivity of modeled terrestrial water storage to aquifer parameter choices. We also show that approximate knowledge of parameter values is not sufficient to guarantee realistic model performance: because interaction among parameters is significant, they must be prescribed as a harmonious set.

Gulden, L. E.↗

Evaluation of Ten Methods for Initializing a Land Surface Model

Land surface models (LSMs) are computer programs, similar to weather and climate prediction models, which simulate the stocks and fluxes of water (including soil moisture, snow, evaporation, and runoff) and energy (including the temperature of and sensible heat released from the soil) after they arrive on the land surface as precipitation and sunlight. It is not currently possible to measure all of the variables of interest everywhere on Earth with sufficient accuracy and space-time resolution. Hence LSMs have been developed to integrate the available observations with our understanding of the physical processes involved, using powerful computers, in order to map these stocks and fluxes as they change in time. The maps are used to improve weather forecasts, support water resources and agricultural applications, and study the Earth"s water cycle and climate variability. NASA"s Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) project facilitates testing of several different LSMs with a variety of input datasets (e.g., precipitation, plant type).

Rodell, M.↗

GC13I-0857: Designing a Frost Forecasting Service for Small Scale Tea Farmers in East Africa

Kenya is the third largest tea exporter in the world, producing 10% of the world's black tea. Sixty percent of this production occurs largely by small scale tea holders, with an average farm size of 1.04 acres, and an annual net income of $1,075. According to a recent evaluation, a typical frost event in the tea growing region causes about $200 dollars in losses which can be catastrophic for a small holder farm. A 72-hour frost forecast would provide these small-scale tea farmers with enough notice to reduce losses by approximately 80 USD annually. With this knowledge, SERVIR, a joint NASA-USAID initiative that brings Earth observations for improved decision making in developing countries, sought to design a frost monitoring and forecasting service that would provide farmers with enough lead time to react to and protect against a forecasted frost occurrence on their farm. SERVIR Eastern and Southern Africa, through its implementing partner, the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD), designed a service that included multiple stakeholder engagement events whereby stakeholders from the tea industry value chain were invited to share their experiences so that the exact needs and flow of information could be identified. This unique event allowed enabled the design of a service that fit the specifications of the stakeholders. The monitoring service component uses the MODIS Land Surface Temperature product to identify frost occurrences in near-real time. The prediction component, currently under testing, uses the 2-m air temperature, relative humidity, and 10-m wind speed from a series of high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model runs over eastern Kenya as inputs into a frost prediction algorithm. Accuracy and sensitivity of the algorithm is being assessed with observations collected from the farmers using a smart phone app developed specifically to report frost occurrences, and from data shared through our partner network developed at the stakeholder engagement meeting. This presentation will illustrate the efficacy of our frost forecasting algorithm, and a way forward for incorporating these forecasts in a meaningful way to the key decision makers - the small-scale farmers of East Africa.

frost↗

Problem Complexity and LLM: H-M Team Reliability in Challenging Environments

In traditional human-machine operations, the functional decomposition of actions and responsibilities among various agents is assigned a priori. For instance, in current air traffic operations, although assisted by software, human pilots have the ultimate control of aircraft. Multiagent human-machine and machine-machine systems will face problems of varying and potentially unpredicted complexity in future challenging scenarios of planetary, en route, and orbital activities. Hence, it is important to enable dynamic transfer of decision-making to appropriate team members, human or machine, depending on which agent is best equipped to solve that specific problem on a time budget. In this paper, we consider aspects of problem-solving and its modeling that affect the outcomes of decision-making as a function of solution quality and the likelihood of solving the problem on a required time budget. We focus on Large Language Models (LLM) as potential machine teammates and conclude that practical, predictive modeling of their performance, at the current stage of their development, is infeasible. Simple examples help us illustrate that current LLM will require fundamental advancements to provide reliable support in team decision-making, especially in safety-critical and time-critical domains. The study is not meant to diminish the value of the remarkable capabilities of LLM, but rather to gain a better understanding of the technology’s appropriate use and the needed additions.

function allocation↗

An investigation to improve the Menhaden fishery prediction and detection model through the application of ERTS-A data

The author has identified the following significant results. Linear regression of secchi disc visibility against number of sets yielded significant results in a number of instances. The variability seen in the slope of the regression lines is due to the nonuniformity of sample size. The longer the period sampled, the larger the total number of attempts. Further, there is no reason to expect either the influence of transparency or of other variables to remain constant throughout the season. However, the fact that the data for the entire season, variable as it is, was significant at the 5% level, suggests its potential utility for predictive modeling. Thus, this regression equation will be considered representative and will be utilized for the first numerical model. Secchi disc visibility was also regressed against number of sets for the three day period September 27-September 29, 1972 to determine if surface truth data supported the intense relationship between ERTS-1 identified turbidity and fishing effort previously discussed. A very negative correlation was found. These relationship lend additional credence to the hypothesis that ERTS imagery, when utilized as a source of visibility (turbidity) data, may be useful as a predictive tool.

Maughan, P. M.↗