Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “power modeling and estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,171 records · Page 65
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Decontamination of urban surfaces contaminated with radioactive materials and consequent onsite recycling of the waste water

Enhancing rapid remediation strategies is paramount for recovery after a large-scale nuclear contamination event in an urban environment. Some current strategies recommend use of readily available equipment, materials, and facilities to expedite recovery. For example, applying pressurized water to contaminated surfaces may effectively remove radioactive contamination. In this study, a commercial power washer removes soluble forms of 152 Eu 3 + , 85 Sr 2 + , and 137 Cs + contamination from common porous building materials, and computer simulations characterize the recycling of the resultant contaminated wash water. Pressure washing the porous building materials under spray conditions typical with do-it-yourself units improved decontamination factors (DFs) for 152 Eu compared to low-pressure application of tap water (majority of two-tailed t-test p-values < 0.1), but pressure did not improve DFs for 137 Cs or 85 Sr. For both pressurized and low-pressure applications, adding potassium ions (K + ) to promote ion exchange reactions produced significantly higher DFs for tested radionuclides on asphalt, brick, and concrete. The resultant contaminated wash water can be processed through self-prepared chemical filtration beds of clay and sand. Modeled in a prior study, the beds yielded linear trends (R 2 > 0.98) in sensitivity analyses between most bed configuration variables and bed performance variables, permitting flexible ad-hoc bed design. The experimental and simulation results led to estimates of the remediation rate and waste generated after cleaning 250 m 2 of cesium-contaminated concrete from the combined deployment of a power washer and two different mobile treatment beds. Furthermore, the first treatment bed was designed to reduce treatment time and processed 1900 L of wash solution in 70 min using 880 kg of clay/sand infill material. Designed to reduce the solid waste generated, the second bed processed the same solution volume in 1040 min (17 h) using 170 kg of clay/sand infill material. The results of this analysis warrant further investigation of power washing with recycled salt solution as an effective rapid decontamination method with manageable waste.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Prestressed Concrete Poles Subjected to Wind, Surges, and Waves

Prestressed concrete (PC) poles are becoming popular choices to support coastal power transmission systems. However, the existing literature does not offer a detailed analysis of the effectiveness of PC poles in terms of long-term vulnerabilities and the direct and indirect costs. This is due to (1) lack of fragility models for PC poles and (2) lack of probabilistic wind, storm surge, and wave models in coastal settings. In this study, we address these gaps through a series of Monte Carlo simulations to estimate fragility of PC poles as a function of age and hazard (wind, surges, and waves) intensity, and the development of a probabilistic hazard model based on 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone data. The probabilistic hazard model is used in conjunction with high-resolution hydrodynamic models to generate realizations of coastal wind, storm surges, and waves for the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. A comprehensive life cycle cost analysis for a service life of 70 years considering direct and indirect losses is conducted to compare the performance of a transmission line located in Pascagoula, Mississippi, when wood poles are replaced by PC poles. Results showed that aging has a minor effect on the reliability of PC poles, highlighting the advantages of replacing wood poles with PC poles, especially in coastal areas. In addition, PC poles are significantly more cost-effective compared with wood poles over their life cycle, leading to an estimated saving of $11.55 million (68.17% reduction). The results of this study provide key insight to inform decision-making processes to keep the coastal power grids resilient and cost-effective against future storm hazards.

natural disasters↗
DOE OSTI2020

Health co-benefits and mitigation costs as per the Paris Agreement under different technological pathways for energy supply

This study assesses the reductions in air pollution emissions and subsequent beneficial health effects from different global mitigation pathways consistent with the 2 °C stabilization objective of the Paris Agreement. We use an integrated modelling framework, demonstrating the need for models with an appropriate level of technology detail for an accurate co-benefit assessment. The framework combines an integrated assessment model (GCAM) with an air quality model (TM5-FASST) to obtain estimates of premature mortality and then assesses their economic cost. The results show that significant co-benefits can be found for a range of technological options, such as introducing a limitation on bioenergy, carbon capture and storage (CCS) or nuclear power. Cumulative premature mortality may be reduced by 17–23% by 2020–2050 compared to the baseline, depending on the scenarios. However, the ratio of health co-benefits to mitigation costs varies substantially, ranging from 1.45 when a bioenergy limitation is set to 2.19 when all technologies are available. As for regional disaggregation, some regions, such as India and China, obtain far greater co-benefits than others.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multidisciplinary Constraints on the Thermal‐Chemical Boundary Between Earth's Core and Mantle

Abstract Heat flux from the core to the mantle provides driving energy for mantle convection thus powering plate tectonics, and contributes a significant fraction of the geothermal heat budget. Indirect estimates of core‐mantle boundary heat flow are typically based on petrological evidence of mantle temperature, interpretations of temperatures indicated by seismic travel times, experimental measurements of mineral melting points, physical mantle convection models, or physical core convection models. However, previous estimates have not consistently integrated these lines of evidence. In this work, an interdisciplinary analysis is applied to co‐constrain core‐mantle boundary heat flow and test the thermal boundary layer (TBL) theory. The concurrence of TBL models, energy balance to support geomagnetism, seismology, and review of petrologic evidence for historic mantle temperatures supports Q CMB ∼15 TW, with all except geomagnetism supporting as high as ∼20 TW. These values provide a tighter constraint on core heat flux relative to previous work. Our work describes the seismic properties consistent with a TBL, and supports a long‐lived basal mantle molten layer through much of Earth's history.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Efficient 1-D Thermal Stratification Model for Pool-Type Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors

Investigating thermal stratification in the upper plenum of a sodium fast reactor (SFR) is presently a technology gap in SFR safety analysis. Understanding thermal stratification will promote safe operation of the SFR before its commercial deployment. Stratified layers of liquid sodium with a large vertical temperature gradient could be established in the upper plenum of an SFR during a down-power or a loss-of-flow transient. These stratified layers are unstable and could result in uncertainties for the core safety of an SFR. In order to predict the occurrence of the thermal stratification efficiently, we developed a one-dimensional (1-D) transport model to estimate the temperature profile of the ambient fluid in the upper plenum. This model demands much less computational effort than computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes and provides calculations with higher fidelity than historical system-level codes. Two flow conditions were considered separately in the current study depending on if in-vessel components are presented in the upper plenum. For the condition where in-vessel components, specifically the upper internal structure, are presented, we assumed that the impinging sodium was evenly dispersed in the ambient fluid within the distance between the bottom of the in-vessel component and the jet inlet surface. For the condition where no in-vessel components are presented, we assumed that the impinging sodium was evenly dispersed in the ambient fluid within the jet length, which was determined through data-driven trainings. The newly developed 1-D model showed similar performance with the CFD model in both cases. However, due to the assumption of flat profiles of the impinging jet axial dispersion rate, nonnegligible discrepancies between the 1-D prediction and the measured data were observed.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Monte Carlo control loops for cosmic shear cosmology with DES Year 1 data

Weak lensing by large-scale structure is a powerful probe of cosmology and of the dark universe. This cosmic shear technique relies on the accurate measurement of the shapes and redshifts of background galaxies and requires precise control of systematic errors. Monte Carlo control loops (MCCL) is a forward modeling method designed to tackle this problem. It relies on the ultra fast image generator (UFig) to produce simulated images tuned to match the target data statistically, followed by calibrations and tolerance loops. Here, we present the first end-to-end application of this method, on the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 wide field imaging data. We simultaneously measure the shear power spectrum $C_ℓ$ and the redshift distribution $n(z)$ of the background galaxy sample. The method includes maps of the systematic sources, point spread function (PSF), an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference of the simulation model parameters, a shear calibration scheme, and a fast method to estimate the covariance matrix. We find a close statistical agreement between the simulations and the DES Y1 data using an array of diagnostics. In a nontomographic setting, we derive a set of $C_ℓ$ and $n(z)$ curves that encode the cosmic shear measurement, as well as the systematic uncertainty. Following a blinding scheme, we measure the combination of $Ω_m$, $σ_8$, and intrinsic alignment amplitude $A_{IA}$, defined as $S_8D_{IA}=σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}D_{IA}$, where $D_{IA}=1-0.11(A_{IA}-1)$. We find $S_8D_{IA}=0.8954_{-0.039}^{+0.054}$, where systematics are at the level of roughly 60% of the statistical errors. We discuss these results in the context of earlier cosmic shear analyses of the DES Y1 data. Our findings indicate that this method and its fast runtime offer good prospects for cosmic shear measurements with future wide-field surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Overview of leakage scenarios in supervised machine learning

Machine learning (ML) provides powerful tools for predictive modeling. ML’s popularity stems from the promise of sample-level prediction with applications across a variety of fields from physics and marketing to healthcare. However, if not properly implemented and evaluated, ML pipelines may contain leakage typically resulting in overoptimistic performance estimates and failure to generalize to new data. This can have severe negative financial and societal implications. Our aim is to expand understanding associated with causes leading to leakage when designing, implementing, and evaluating ML pipelines. Illustrated by concrete examples, we provide a comprehensive overview and discussion of various types of leakage that may arise in ML pipelines.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward the validation of crowdsourced experiments for lightness perception

Crowdsource platforms have been used to study a range of perceptual stimuli such as the graphical perception of scatterplots and various aspects of human color perception. Given the lack of control over a crowdsourced participant’s experimental setup, there are valid concerns on the use of crowdsourcing for color studies as the perception of the stimuli is highly dependent on the stimulus presentation. Here, we propose that the error due to a crowdsourced experimental design can be effectively averaged out because the crowdsourced experiment can be accommodated by the Thurstonian model as the convolution of two normal distributions, one that is perceptual in nature and one that captures the error due to variability in stimulus presentation. Based on this, we provide a mathematical estimate for the sample size needed to produce a crowdsourced experiment with the same power as the corresponding in-person study. We tested this claim by replicating a large-scale, crowdsourced study of human lightness perception with a diverse sample with a highly controlled, in-person study with a sample taken from psychology undergraduates. Our claim was supported by the replication of the results from the latter. These findings suggest that, with sufficient sample size, color vision studies may be completed online, giving access to a larger and more representative sample. With this framework at hand, experimentalists have the validation that choosing either many online participants or few in person participants will not sacrifice the impact of their results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

IDAES Enterprise: Generation Expansion Planning with Enhanced Requirements for Capacity Adequacy Under Renewable Intermittency

Achieving net zero carbon emissions likely requires future power systems to integrate new, flexible energy technologies to accommodate higher levels of capacity from variable renewable energy sources. To determine the optimal deployment of new electricity capacity and to study the likelihood of deployments of new energy technologies, an expansion planning model has been developed as part of the IDAES-Enterprise suite of grid models. The Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) model is a multi-period model in which investment decisions occur yearly, and a Unit Commitment (UC) problem is examined on an hourly timescale. To reduce computational complexity of the GEP model, the UC problem is solved for average “representative days” which leaves out extreme, but relatively common, scenarios in which low renewable generation occurs, leaving the system with inadequacy in capacity. The IDAES-Enterprise GEP model has been modified to include these extreme scenarios while keeping the model reasonably tractable. Specifically, a lazy constraint technique was implemented to check for capacity adequacy on an hourly basis over a large data set of aligned load-wind-solar profiles. As a vast majority of the capacity constraints will not be violated, the technique lowers computational expense by searching for violated capacity constraints over an “iterative manner,” adding those infeasible constraints back into the model. Results on a test case of the Southwest Power Pool shows that the lazy constraint technique significantly reduces retirements and increases installments of natural gas combined cycles and flexible natural gas units. It also reduces some retirements of coal units. These modifications provide a more reasonable estimation of required dispatchable power generation capacity to ensure feasibility during peak net load.

Liu, Peng↗
NASA NTRS1974

Bistatic scatter from rain

An experimental investigation of bistatic scatter from rain was conducted, using a 143-km scatter path at frequencies of 4.5 and 7.7 GHz. The ratio of transmitted to received power (transmission loss) was measured for scattering angles ranging from 6 to 130 deg. Simultaneous weather radar observations were made at a frequency of 1.3 GHz. Transmission loss estimates for the bistatic scatter path were computed, using the weather radar data, the bistatic radar equation, and a model for the scattering cross section per unit volume of rain based upon Rayleigh scattering by an ensemble of water spheres. The measured and estimated transmission loss values were compared to test the use of the scattering model for the estimation of interference. The averaged ratio of measured-to-calculated transmission loss for the 4.5 GHz data is 1.2 plus or minus 0.4 dB. The averaged ratio for the 7.7 GHz data is -1.6 plus or minus 0.5 dB.

Crane, R. K.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Total ionospheric electron content calibration using SERIES GPS satellite data

The current status of the Deep Space Network advanced systems research into ionospheric calibration techniques, based on Global Positioning System (GPS) data is described. A GPS-based calibration system is planned to replace the currently used Faraday rotation method by 1989. The SERIES receiver system determines the differential group delay of signals transmitted at two different carrier frequencies. This differential delay includes an ionospheric component and a GPS transmitter offset. The transmitter offsets are different for each GPS satellite. Tests were conducted to assess the effect of the offsets on the ionospheric calibration accuracy. From the obtained data, the total electron content and GPS transmitter offsets are calculated by a least squares estimation method employing a local model of total ionospheric electron content. The end product is an estimation of the total ionospheric content for an arbitrary line-of-sight direction. For the presented polynomial fitting technique, the systematic error due to mismodeling is estimated to be approximately 6 x 10 to the 16th power el/sq m, while the formal error is approximately 2 x 10 to the 16th power el/sq m. The final goal is an error of 3 x 10 to the 16th power el/sq m (approximately 0.7 ns at 2.3 GHz).

Lanyi, G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Theoretical simulation of a 2 micron airborne solid state laser anemometer

In the near future, military aircraft will need to know precisely their true airspeed in order to optimize flight conditions. In comparison with classical anemometer probes, an airborne Doppler lidar allows measurement of the air velocity without influence from aircraft aerodynamic disturbance. While several demonstration systems of heterodyne detection using a CO2 laser have been reported, improvements in the technology of solid state lasers have recently opened up the possibility that these devices can be used as an alternative to CO2 laser systems. In particular, a diode pumped Tm:Ho:YAG laser allows a reliable compact airborne system with an eye safe wavelength (lambda = 2.09 microns) to be achieved. The theoretical study of performances of a coherent lidar using a solid state diode pumped Tm:Ho:YAG laser, caled SALSA, for measuring aircraft airspeed relative to atmospheric aerosols is described. A computer simulation was developed in order to modelize the Doppler anemometer in the function of atmospheric propagation and optical design. A clever analysis of the power budget on the detector area allows optical characteristic parameters of the system to be calculated, and then it can be used to predict performances of the Doppler system. Estimating signal to noise ratios (SNR) and heterodyne efficiency provides the available energy of speed measurement as well as a useful measurement of the alignment of the backscattered and reference fields on the detector.

Imbert, Beatrice↗
NASA NTRS1998

Final Report

This grant was made to fund two accepted proposals to observe with the ASCA satellite: (1) Debunking the myth of two-temperature coronae of active stars, and (2) Dynamic coronae of dMe stars. We obtained the requested observations and have now completed two papers that will be published in the Astrophysical Journal. The RS CVn binary star UX Ari was observed for 14 hours with all four detectors onboard the ASCA satellite. The X-ray emission was at a constant, quiescent level during the first 12 hours, after which time a powerful flare with a peak luminosity of 1.4 x 10(exp 32) ergs/s started. The flare was observed until shortly after its peak. We present a spectral and temporal analysis of the UX Ari observations and analyze the data with a two-ribbon flare model including estimates for cooling losses. A time-dependent reconstruction of the emission measure (EM) distribution shows that two separate plasma components evolve during the flare (one being identified with the quiescent EM). Most of the flare EM reaches temperatures between 50 MK and 100 MK or more. Magnetic confinement requires the loop arcade to be geometrically large, with length scales on the order of one stellar radius. The electron densities inferred from the model decrease from initial values around 10(exp 12)/cc early in the flare to about 10(exp 11)/cc at the flare peak. The best-fit models require surface magnetic field strengths of a few hundred G, compatible with the maximum photospheric fields expected from equipartition. The flare parameters imply a (conductive and radiative) cooling loss time of less than one hour at flare peak. The elemental abundances increase significantly during the flare rise, with the abundances of the low-FIP elements Fe, Mg, Si, and Ni typically increasing to higher levels than the high-FIP elements such as S or Ne. The Fe abundance increases from (17 +/- 4)% of the solar photospheric value during quiescence up to (89 +/- 18)% at flare peak. A fractionation process that occurs during the chromospheric evaporation phase may selectively enrich low-FIP elements as in the solar corona; alternatively, the chromospheric evaporation may itself bring metal-rich plasma into the metal-poor corona.

Linsky, Jeffrey L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Fermi/GBM Observations of SGRJ0501 + 4516 Bursts

We present our temporal and spectral analyses of 29 bursts from SGRJ0501+4516, detected with the Gamma-ray Burst Monitor onboard the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope during the 13 days of the source activation in 2008 (August 22 to September 3). We find that the T(sub 90) durations of the bursts can be fit with a log-normal distribution with a mean value of approx. 123 ms. We also estimate for the first time event durations of Soft Gamma Repeater (SGR) bursts in photon space (i.e., using their deconvolved spectra) and find that these are very similar to the T(sub 90)s estimated in count space (following a log-normal distribution with a mean value of approx. 124 ms). We fit the time-integrated spectra for each burst and the time-resolved spectra of the five brightest bursts with several models. We find that a single power law with an exponential cutoff model fits all 29 bursts well, while 18 of the events can also be fit with two black body functions. We expand on the physical interpretation of these two models and we compare their parameters and discuss their evolution. We show that the time-integrated and time-resolved spectra reveal that E(sub peak) decreases with energy flux (and fluence) to a minimum of approx. 30 keV at F = 8.7 x 10(exp -6)erg/sq cm/s, increasing steadily afterwards. Two more sources exhibit a similar trend: SGRs J1550 - 5418 and 1806 - 20. The isotropic luminosity, L(sub iso), corresponding to these flux values is roughly similar for all sources (0.4 - l.5 x 10(exp 40) erg/s.

Lin, Lin↗
NASA NTRS2011

Unsupervised Detection of Planetary Craters by a Marked Point Process

With the launch of several planetary missions in the last decade, a large amount of planetary images is being acquired. Preferably, automatic and robust processing techniques need to be used for data analysis because of the huge amount of the acquired data. Here, the aim is to achieve a robust and general methodology for crater detection. A novel technique based on a marked point process is proposed. First, the contours in the image are extracted. The object boundaries are modeled as a configuration of an unknown number of random ellipses, i.e., the contour image is considered as a realization of a marked point process. Then, an energy function is defined, containing both an a priori energy and a likelihood term. The global minimum of this function is estimated by using reversible jump Monte-Carlo Markov chain dynamics and a simulated annealing scheme. The main idea behind marked point processes is to model objects within a stochastic framework: Marked point processes represent a very promising current approach in the stochastic image modeling and provide a powerful and methodologically rigorous framework to efficiently map and detect objects and structures in an image with an excellent robustness to noise. The proposed method for crater detection has several feasible applications. One such application area is image registration by matching the extracted features.

Troglio, G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

0D, 1D, 2D, and 3D simulations of an idealized coaxial impedance-matched Marx generator

We have conducted 0D, 1D, 2D, and 3D simulations of an idealized coaxial impedance-matched Marx generator (IMG) []. The 0D calculations were conducted with a four-element circuit model; the 1D, 2D, and 3D calculations were conducted with highly resolved, fully electromagnetic representations. The IMG consists of 30 stages distributed axially and connected electrically in series. Each stage is powered by two bricks separated by 180° and connected electrically in parallel. Each brick comprises two opposite-polarity capacitors in series with a single switch. The bricks drive an internal impedance-matched coaxial transmission line terminated by a resistive load. The simulations neglect effects due to the switch-triggering circuit, the capacitor-charging circuit, external conducting boundaries, and reactive components of the load. We find dimensionality does not significantly affect the electrical power delivered by the IMG to its load: peak load powers estimated by the 0D, 1D, 2D, and 3D simulations agree to within 1%. The 3D calculations demonstrate that electromagnetic power radiated by the bricks, and axial gaps between stages, reduces the peak load power by less than ∼ 1 % . Each simulation assumes the load impedance is 34% above that at which the load power is maximized. Operating an IMG with such an overmatched load offers several advantages while decreasing the peak load power by only 2%. The 0D, 1D, 2D, and 3D models outlined herein could be adapted to assess computationally competing IMG designs, and conduct a variety of numerical IMG experiments, an IMG is constructed. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS2012

Preliminary Assessment of Variable Speed Power Turbine Technology on Civil Tiltrotor Size and Performance

A Large Civil Tiltrotor (LCTR) conceptual design was developed as part of the NASA Heavy Lift Rotorcraft Systems Investigation in order to establish a consistent basis for evaluating the benefits of advanced technology for large tiltrotors. The concept has since evolved into the second-generation LCTR2, designed to carry 90 passengers for 1,000 nm at 300 knots, with vertical takeoff and landing capability. This paper performs a preliminary assessment of variable-speed power turbine technology on LCTR2 sizing, while maintaining the same, advanced technology engine core. Six concepts were studied; an advanced, single-speed engine with a conventional power turbine layout (Advanced Conventional Engine, or ACE) using a multi-speed (shifting) gearbox. There were five variable-speed power turbine (VSPT) engine concepts, comprising a matrix of either three or four turbine stages, and fixed or variable guide vanes; plus a minimum weight, twostage, fixed-geometry VSPT. The ACE is the lightest engine, but requires a multi-speed (shifting) gearbox to maximize its fuel efficiency, whereas the VSPT concepts use a lighter, fixed-ratio gearbox. The NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) design code was used to study the trades between rotor and engine efficiency and weight. Rotor performance was determined by Comprehensive Analytical Model of Rotorcraft Aerodynamics and Dynamics (CAMRAD II), and engine performance was estimated with the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS). Design trades for the ACE vs. VSPT are presented in terms of vehicle gross and empty weight, propulsion system weight and mission fuel burn for the civil mission. Because of its strong effect on gearbox weight and on both rotor and engine efficiency, rotor speed was chosen as the reference design variable for comparing design trades. Major study assumptions are presented and discussed. Impressive engine power-to-weight and fuel efficiency reduced vehicle sensitivity to propulsion system choice. The 10% weight penalty for multi-speed gearbox was more significant than most engine technology weight penalties to the vehicle design because drive system weight is more than two times engine weight. Based on study assumptions, fixed-geometry VSPT concept options performed better than their variable-geometry counterparts. Optimum design gross weights varied 1% or less and empty weights less than 2% among the concepts studied, while optimum fuel burns varied up to 5%. The outcome for some optimum configurations was so unexpected as to recommend a deeper look at the underlying technology assumptions.

Snyder, Christopher A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing and improving the performance of molten-salt-steam heat exchangers in concentrating solar power plants

Shell-and-tube heat exchangers (HXs) for steam generation from molten salts in concentrating solar power (CSP) plants experience thermal fatigue due to significant temperature gradients and inherent transient operation. Molten salt-steam HX design lifespans exceed actual lifespans, and, as a consequence, designers overpredict plant profitability and operators neglect appropriate prescriptions to optimize these lifetimes. Here, this study refines HX lifespan estimates with data benchmarked against thermal-fluid mechanical modeling of stress and accumulated fatigue. Reduced-order thermal models of the molten salt-steam, shell-and-tube evaporator and superheater predict transient temperature profiles along the two HXs salt-steam flow paths. The modeled evaporator and superheater temperature profiles enable assessment of cyclic stresses within the HX tubesheets, where molten-salt HX failures are most common. Evaporator and superheater performance data from a current 110 MW elec commercial CSP plant provide a basis for validating the reduced-order HX models. HX life predictions derived from stochastic failure distributions serve as inputs for simulating and optimizing existing plant operations. The impact of the updated lifespans on overall plant revenue depends on operating scenarios. This study suggests that typical ramping rates for a CSP plant with a high-temperature Rankine cycle result in an evaporator and superheater life of approximately 10 and 25 years, respectively, compared to the design target of 30 years. Reduced HX lifespans decrease operational plant revenue on average by 4.6-5.1%. Furthermore, there may be as many as four HX replacements over the 30-year lifetime of the plant; and, purchase agreement loss due to failure to meet contractual production requirements can have ramifications that include the risk of bankruptcy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗