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NASA NTRS2014

Addressing the Hard Factors for Command File Errors by Probabilistic Reasoning

Command File Errors (CFE) are managed using standard risk management approaches at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Over the last few years, more emphasis has been made on the collection, organization, and analysis of these errors for the purpose of reducing the CFE rates. More recently, probabilistic modeling techniques have been used for more in depth analysis of the perceived error rates of the DAWN mission and for managing the soft factors in the upcoming phases of the mission. We broadly classify the factors that can lead to CFE's as soft factors, which relate to the cognition of the operators and hard factors which relate to the Mission System which is composed of the hardware, software and procedures used for the generation, verification & validation and execution of commands. The focus of this paper is to use probabilistic models that represent multiple missions at JPL to determine the root cause and sensitivities of the various components of the mission system and develop recommendations and techniques for addressing them. The customization of these multi-mission models to a sample interplanetary spacecraft is done for this purpose.

Meshkat, Leila↗

NASA NTRS2016

Trajectory Design to Mitigate Risk on the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) Mission

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several orbit constraints. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and to optimize nominal trajectories, check constraint satisfaction, and finally model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

design↗

NASA NTRS2017

IR Spectra and Properties of Solid Acetone, an Interstellar and Cometary Molecule

Mid-infrared spectra of amorphous and crystalline acetone are presented along with measurements of the refractive index and density for both forms of the compound. Infrared band strengths are reported for the first time for amorphous and crystalline acetone, along with IR optical constants. Vapor pressures and a sublimation enthalpy for crystalline acetone also are reported. Positions of (sup 13) C-labeled acetone are measured. Band strengths are compared to gas-phase values and to the results of a density-functional calculation. A 73 percent error in previous work is identified and corrected.

ethers↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) Limb Profiler (LP) Version 1 Aerosol Extinction Retrieval Algorithm: Theoretical Basis

The theoretical basis of the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) Limb Profiler (LP) Version 1 aerosol extinction retrieval algorithm is presented. The algorithm uses an assumed bimodal lognormal aerosol size distribution to retrieve aerosol extinction profiles at 675 nm from OMPS LP radiance measurements. A first-guess aerosol extinction profile is updated by iteration using the Chahine nonlinear relaxation method, based on comparisons between the measured radiance profile at 675 nm and the radiance profile calculated by the Gauss Seidel limb-scattering (GSLS) radiative transfer model for a spherical-shell atmosphere. This algorithm is discussed in the context of previous limb-scattering aerosol extinction retrieval algorithms, and the most significant error sources are enumerated. The retrieval algorithm is limited primarily by uncertainty about the aerosol phase function. Horizontal variations in aerosol extinction, which violate the spherical-shell atmosphere assumed in the version 1 algorithm, may also limit the quality of the retrieved aerosol extinction profiles significantly.

Loughman, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2023

Flight Mechanics Analysis Tools Interoperability and Component Sharing

As multiple flight mechanics (FM) analysis tools are developed to meet the unique scientific and operational requirements of NASA missions, sharing data, transferring models and trajectory information between tools can be complicated. The NESC recently explored ways that increase interoperability of three mission analysis tools: Copernicus, General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT), and Mission-Analysis Operations Navigation Toolkit Environment (MONTE). These tools are used to generate a variety of products throughout all phases of a mission including: maneuver planning, trajectory optimization and design, orbit determination, performance and error analysis, trade studies and sizing. Establishing a framework to share models, component data and trajectory information is an efficient way to leverage the benefits of an analysis tool without expending development costs to duplicate functionality.

Flight Mechanics Simulation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Proton Scattering in NOvA Test Beam

The NuMI Off-axis $\nu_e$ Appearance (NOvA) experiment is a two-detector, long baseline, neutrino oscillation experiment, which aims to make a determination of the neutrino mass ordering, the octant of $\theta_{23}$, and measure possible charge-parity (CP) violation. Determining these parameters is a step towards answering some of the fundamental questions about neutrinos. Are neutrinos their own antiparticle? Could neutrinos be responsible for the matter-antimatter asymmetry of the universe? How do neutrinos get their mass? Answering these questions requires precise measurements of the parameters that govern how neutrinos behave, namely the mass squared splittings, mixing angles, and possible CP-violating phase factor in the PNMS matrix. Reaching high precision requires minimizing both statistical and systematic errors. As NOvA continues to accumulate data, the sizes of our statistical errors continue to shrink such that in a couple of years they will be comparable to our systematic errors. NOvA's current systematic errors are dominated by energy and calibration uncertainties. The Test Beam program was initiated to address these uncertainties by assessing the detector response in an environment where more parameters of the incoming particles are known. One of the main goals of the Test Beam program is to garner a better understanding of our systematic errors, particularly in energy measurement and detector response, so that the modeling of these parameters can be improved. I studied protons in the Test Beam Detector with momenta around \unit[1]{GeV/c}, the high end of the momentum range relevant to quasielastic neutrino interactions in NOvA. One question this sample can help to answer is if we correctly simulate the fraction of protons that have an inelastic scattering interaction versus ranging out. If protons inelastically scatter at different rates in our simulation and data, the correction applied to the hadronic system when reconstructing neutrino energy could be inaccurate, since events with inelastic scattering will have less visible energy in the detector. This is particularly important for quasielastic $\nu_\mu$ events, which have the lowest hadronic energy resolution, and therefore give us our best measurements of $\Delta m_{32}^2$ and $\theta_{23}$.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the Rapid Refresh Numerical Weather Prediction Model over Arctic Alaska

Abstract Despite a need for accurate weather forecasts for societal and economic interests in the U.S. Arctic, thorough evaluations of operational numerical weather prediction in the region have been limited. In particular, the Rapid Refresh Model (RAP), which plays a key role in short-term forecasting and decision-making, has seen very limited assessment in northern Alaska, with most evaluation efforts focused on lower latitudes. In the present study, we verify forecasts from version 4 of the RAP against radiosonde, surface meteorological, and radiative flux observations from two Arctic sites on the northern Alaskan coastline, with a focus on boundary layer thermodynamic and dynamic biases, model representation of surface inversions, and cloud characteristics. We find persistent seasonal thermodynamic biases near the surface that vary with wind direction, and may be related to the RAP’s handling of sea ice and ocean interactions. These biases seem to have diminished in the latest version of the RAP (version 5), which includes refined handling of sea ice, among other improvements. In addition, we find that despite capturing boundary layer temperature profiles well overall, the RAP struggles to consistently represent strong, shallow surface inversions. Further, while the RAP seems to forecast the presence of clouds accurately in most cases, there are errors in the simulated characteristics of these clouds, which we hypothesize may be related to the RAP’s treatment of mixed-phase clouds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Entangling-gate error from coherently displaced motional modes of trapped ions

Entangling gates in trapped-ion quantum computers are most often applied to stationary ions with initial motional distributions that are thermal and close to the ground state, while those demonstrations that involve transport generally use sympathetic cooling to reinitialize the motional state prior to applying a gate. Future systems with more ions, however, will face greater nonthermal excitation due to increased amounts of ion transport and exacerbated by longer operational times and variations over the trap array. In addition, pregate sympathetic cooling may be limited due to time costs and laser access constraints. In this paper, we analyze the impact of such coherent motional excitation on entangling-gate error by performing simulations of Mølmer-Sørenson (MS) gates on a pair of trapped-ion qubits with both thermal and coherent excitation present in a shared motional mode at the start of the gate. Here, we quantify how a small amount of coherent displacement erodes gate performance in the presence of experimental noise, and we demonstrate that adjusting the relative phase between the initial coherent displacement and the displacement induced by the gate or using Walsh modulation can suppress this error. We then use experimental data from transported ions to analyze the impact of coherent displacement on MS-gate error under realistic conditions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Saturating the one-axis twisting quantum Cramér-Rao bound with a total spin readout

We show that the lowest quantum Cramér-Rao bound achievable in interferometry with a one-axis twisted spin coherent state is saturated by the asymptotic method of moments error of a protocol that uses one call to the one-axis twisting, one call to time-reversed one-axis twisting, and a final total spin measurement (i.e., a twist-untwist protocol). The result is derived by first showing that the metrological phase diagram for one-axis twisting is asymptotically characterized by a single quantum Fisher information value N(N + 1)/2 for all times, then constructing a twist-untwist protocol having a method of moments error that saturates this value. The case of finite-range one-axis twisting is similarly analyzed, and a simple functional form for the metrological phase diagram is found in both the short-range and long-range interaction regimes. Numerical evidence suggests that the finite-range analogues of twist-untwist protocols can exhibit a method of moments error that asymptotically saturates the lowest quantum Cramér-Rao bound achievable in interferometry with finite-range one-axis twisted spin coherent states for all interaction times.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measurements and Model Improvement: Insight into NWP Model Error Using Doppler Lidar and Other WFIP2 Measurement Systems

Abstract Doppler-lidar wind-profile measurements at three sites were used to evaluate NWP model errors from two versions of NOAA’s 3-km-grid HRRR model, to see whether updates in the latest version 4 reduced errors when compared against the original version 1. Nested (750-m grid) versions of each were also tested to see how grid spacing affected forecast skill. The measurements were part of the field phase of the Second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP2), an 18-month deployment into central Oregon–Washington, a major wind-energy-producing region. This study focuses on errors in simulating marine intrusions, a summertime, 600–800-m-deep, regional sea-breeze flow found to generate large errors. HRRR errors proved to be complex and site dependent. The most prominent error resulted from a premature drop in modeled marine-intrusion wind speeds after local midnight, when lidar-measured winds of greater than 8 m s −1 persisted through the next morning. These large negative errors were offset at low levels by positive errors due to excessive mixing, complicating the interpretation of model “improvement,” such that the updates to the full-scale versions produced mixed results, sometimes enhancing but sometimes degrading model skill. Nesting consistently improved model performance, with version 1’s nest producing the smallest errors overall. HRRR’s ability to represent the stages of sea-breeze forcing was evaluated using radiation budget, surface-energy balance, and near-surface temperature measurements available during WFIP2. The significant site-to-site differences in model error and the complex nature of these errors mean that field-measurement campaigns having dense arrays of profiling sensors are necessary to properly diagnose and characterize model errors, as part of a systematic approach to NWP model improvement. Significance Statement Dramatic increases in NWP model skill will be required over the coming decades. This paper describes the role of major deployments of accurate profiling sensors in achieving that goal and presents an example from the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Program (WFIP2). Wind-profile data from scanning Doppler lidars were used to evaluate two versions of HRRR, the original and an updated version, and nested versions of each. This study focuses on the ability of updated HRRR versions to improve upon predicting a regional sea-breeze flow, which was found to generate large errors by the original HRRR. Updates to the full-scale HRRR versions produced mixed results, but the finer-mesh versions consistently reduced model errors.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2022

Timing measurement apparatus

Methods, devices and systems for providing accurate measurements of timing errors using optical techniques are described. An example timing measurement device includes an optical hybrid that receives two optical pulse trains and produces two or more phase shifted optical outputs. The timing measurement device further includes two or more optical filters that receive the outputs of the optical hybrid to produce multiple pulse signals with distinctive frequency bands. The device also includes one or more photodetectors and analog-to-digital converters to receive to produce electrical signals in the digital domain corresponding to the optical outputs of the hybrid. A timing error associated with the optical pulse trains can be determined using the electrical signals in digital domain based on a computed phase difference between a first frequency band signal and a second frequency band signal and a computed frequency difference between the first frequency band signal and the second frequency band.

DeVore, Peter Thomas Setsuda↗

DOE OSTI2024

Timing measurement apparatus

DeVore, Peter Thomas Setsuda↗

NASA NTRS2007

Smooth Phase Interpolated Keying

Smooth phase interpolated keying (SPIK) is an improved method of computing smooth phase-modulation waveforms for radio communication systems that convey digital information. SPIK is applicable to a variety of phase-shift-keying (PSK) modulation schemes, including quaternary PSK (QPSK), octonary PSK (8PSK), and 16PSK. In comparison with a related prior method, SPIK offers advantages of better performance and less complexity of implementation. In a PSK scheme, the underlying information waveform that one seeks to convey consists of discrete rectangular steps, but the spectral width of such a waveform is excessive for practical radio communication. Therefore, the problem is to smooth the step phase waveform in such a manner as to maintain power and bandwidth efficiency without incurring an unacceptably large error rate and without introducing undesired variations in the amplitude of the affected radio signal. Although the ideal constellation of PSK phasor points does not cause amplitude variations, filtering of the modulation waveform (in which, typically, a rectangular pulse is converted to a square-root raised cosine pulse) causes amplitude fluctuations. If a power-efficient nonlinear amplifier is used in the radio communication system, the fluctuating-amplitude signal can undergo significant spectral regrowth, thus compromising the bandwidth efficiency of the system. In the related prior method, one seeks to solve the problem in a procedure that comprises two major steps: phase-value generation and phase interpolation. SPIK follows the two-step approach of the related prior method, but the details of the steps are different. In the phase-value-generation step, the phase values of symbols in the PSK constellation are determined by a phase function that is said to be maximally smooth and that is chosen to minimize the spectral spread of the modulated signal. In this step, the constellation is divided into two groups by assigning, to information symbols, phase values that result in equal numbers of clockwise and counter-clockwise phase rotations for equally likely symbols. The purpose served by assigning phase values in this way is to prevent unnecessary generation of spectral lines and prevent net shifts of the carrier signal. In the phase-interpolation step, the smooth phase values are interpolated over a number, n, of consecutive symbols (including the present symbol) by means of an unconventional spline curve fit.

Borah, Deva K.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Generalization in quantum machine learning from few training data

Modern quantum machine learning (QML) methods involve variationally optimizing a parameterized quantum circuit on a training data set, and subsequently making predictions on a testing data set (i.e., generalizing). In this work, we provide a comprehensive study of generalization performance in QML after training on a limited number N of training data points. We show that the generalization error of a quantum machine learning model with T trainable gates scales at worst as $\sqrt{T/N}$. When only K$\ll$T gates have undergone substantial change in the optimization process, we prove that the generalization error improves to $\sqrt{K/N}$. Our results imply that the compiling of unitaries into a polynomial number of native gates, a crucial application for the quantum computing industry that typically uses exponential-size training data, can be sped up significantly. We also show that classification of quantum states across a phase transition with a quantum convolutional neural network requires only a very small training data set. Other potential applications include learning quantum error correcting codes or quantum dynamical simulation. Our work injects new hope into the field of QML, as good generalization is guaranteed from few training data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2002

An Overview of Trajectory Design Operations for the Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) Mission

The main science objective of the Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) mission is to produce an accurate full-sky map of the cosmic microwave background temperature fluctuations - anisotropy. MAP will collect these measurements from a lissajous orbit about the Sun-Earth/Moon L2 Lagrange Point. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Analysis Branch provided mission analysis, maneuver planning and maneuver calibration for the MAP spacecraft. This paper will provide an overview of the MAP trajectory design, a summary of the maneuvers executed. Differences from the pre-launch nominal plan will also be discussed. During the MAP phasing loops, MAP performed three calibration maneuvers in order to characterize the performance of the primary sets of thrusters - +X, +Z, and -Z. The calibration maneuvers were designed to minimize their impact on the trajectory. Four maneuvers were performed to set up the gravity assist of the Moon - required to propel MAP out to its orbit about L2. These maneuvers were performed at the three phasing loop perigees and at 18 hours after the final perigee. It became necessary to alter some of the perigee maneuvers in order to shape the gravity assist. This shaping was done to help meet some mission goals. In particular, the gravity assist was changed slightly in order to remove lunar shadows in both the cruise out to L2 and in the first revolution about L2. This amounted to a change in the phasing loop AV of less than 1 m/s. After the gravity assist, two mid-course correction (MCC) maneuvers were performed in order to fine-tune the trajectory. MCC1 was used to clean up and errors which resulted from the gravity assist. MCC2 was performed in order to mitigate a large stationkeeping maneuver following a crucial instrument calibration period during the cruise phase. MAP executed it's first stationkeeping maneuver in January 16th and is ready for a second calibration period during late Winter / early Spring. Further information concerning subsequent stationkeeping maneuver will be added as they become available.

Cuevas, Osvaldo O.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Asymptotic errors in adiabatic evolution

The adiabatic theorem in quantum mechanics implies that if a system is in a discrete eigenstate of a Hamiltonian and the Hamiltonian evolves in time arbitrarily slowly, the system will remain in the corresponding eigenstate of the evolved Hamiltonian. Understanding corrections to the adiabatic result that arise when the evolution of the Hamiltonian is slow—but not arbitrarily slow—has become increasingly important, especially since adiabatic evolution has been proposed as a method of state preparation in quantum computing. Here, this paper identifies two regimes, an adiabatic regime in which corrections are generically small and can depend on details of the evolution throughout the path, and a hyperadiabatic regime in which the error is given by a form similar to an asymptotic expansion in the inverse of the evolution time with the coefficients depending principally on the behavior at the endpoints. However, the error in this hyperadiabatic regime is neither given by a true asymptotic series nor solely dependent on the endpoints: the coefficients combine the contributions from both endpoints, with relative phase factors that depend on the average spectral gaps along the trajectory, multiplied by the evolution time. The central result of this paper is to identify a quantity, referred to as the typical error, which is obtained by appropriately averaging the error over evolution times that are small compared to the evolution time itself. This typical error is characterized by an asymptotic series and depends solely on the endpoints of the evolution, remaining independent of the details of the intermediate evolution.

adiabatic approximation↗

NASA NTRS2018

Required Time of Arrival as a Control Mechanism to Mitigate Uncertainty in Arrival Traffic Demand Management

The objective of this study is to explore the use of Required Time of Arrival (RTA) capability on the flight deck as a control mechanism on arrival traffic management to improve traffic delivery accuracy by mitigating the effect of traffic demand uncertainty. The uncertainties are caused by various factors, such as departure error due to the difference between scheduled departure and the actual take-off time. A simulation study was conducted using the Multi Aircraft Control System (MACS) software, a comprehensive research platform developed in the Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) at NASA Ames Research Center. The Crossing Time (CT) performance (i.e. the difference between target crossing time and actual crossing time) of the RTA for uncertainty mitigation during cruise phase was evaluated under the influence of varying two main factors: wind severity (heavy wind vs. mild wind), and wind error (1 hour, 2 hours, and 5 hours wind forecast errors). To examine the CT performance improvement made by the RTA, the comparison to the CT of the aircraft that were not assigned with RTA (Non-RTA) under the influence of the selected factors was also made. The Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) was chosen for this study. A total 66 inbound traffic to the EWR (34 of them were airborne when the simulation was initiated, 32 were pre-departures at that time) was simulated, where the pre-scripted departure error was assigned to each pre-departure (61 conform to their Expected Departure Clearance Time, which is +-300 seconds of their scheduled departure time). The results of the study show that the delivery accuracy improvement can be achieved by assigning RTA, regardless of the influence of the selected two factors (the wind severity and the wind information inaccuracy). Across all wind variances, 66.9 (265 out of 396) of the CT performance of the RTA assigned aircraft was within +- 60 seconds (i.e. target tolerance range) and 88.9 (352 out of 396) aircraft met +-300 seconds marginal tolerance range, while only 33.6 (133 out of 396) of the Non-RTA assigned aircrafts CT performance achieved the target tolerance range and 75.5 (299 out of 396) stayed within the marginal. Examination of the impact of different error sources i.e. departure error, wind severity, and wind error suggest that although large departure errors can significantly impact the CT performance, the impacts of wind severity and errors were modest relative the targeted +- 60 second conformance range.

required time of arrival (RTA)↗

NASA NTRS1970

Multipath error in range rate measurement by PLL-transponder/GRARR/TDRS

Range rate errors due to specular and diffuse multipath are calculated for a tracking and data relay satellite (TDRS) using an S band Goddard range and range rate (GRARR) system modified with a phase-locked loop transponder. Carrier signal processing in the coherent turn-around transponder and the GRARR reciever is taken into account. The root-mean-square (rms) range rate error was computed for the GRARR Doppler extractor and N-cycle count range rate measurement. Curves of worst-case range rate error are presented as a function of grazing angle at the reflection point. At very low grazing angles specular scattering predominates over diffuse scattering as expected, whereas for grazing angles greater than approximately 15 deg, the diffuse multipath predominates. The range rate errors at different low orbit altutudes peaked between 5 and 10 deg grazing angles.

Sohn, S. J.↗