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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

On the influence of halo mass accretion history on galaxy properties and assembly bias

Halo assembly bias is the secondary dependence of the clustering of dark matter haloes on their assembly histories at fixed halo mass. This established dependence is expected to manifest itself on galaxy clustering, a potential effect commonly known as galaxy assembly bias. Using the IllustrisTNG300 magnetohydrodynamical simulation, in this work we analyse the dependence of the properties and clustering of galaxies on the specific mass accretion history of their hosting haloes (sMAH). We first show that several halo and galaxy properties strongly correlate with the slope of the sMAH (β) at fixed halo mass. Haloes with increasingly steeper β increment their masses faster early on, and their hosted galaxies present larger stellar-to-halo mass ratios, lose their gas faster, reach the peak of their star formation histories at higher redshift, and become quenched earlier. We also demonstrate that β provides a more stable link to these key galaxy formation properties than other broadly employed halo proxies, such as formation time. Finally, we measure the secondary dependence of galaxy clustering on β at fixed halo mass. By tracing back the evolution of individual haloes, we show that the amplitude of the galaxy assembly bias signal for the progenitors of z = 0 galaxies increases with redshift, reaching a factor of 2 at z = 1 for haloes of Mhalo = 10 11.5 –10 12 h –1 M ⊙ . The measurement of the evolution of assembly bias along the merger tree provides a new theoretical perspective to the study of secondary bias. Our findings have also important implications for the generation of mock catalogues for upcoming cosmological surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Electronic excitations of α - Fe 2 O 3 heteroepitaxial films measured by resonant inelastic x-ray scattering at the Fe L edge

Resonant inelastic x-ray scattering (RIXS) spectra of hematite (α-Fe 2 O 3 ) were measured at the Fe L 3 edge for heteroepitaxial thin films which were undoped and doped with 1% Ti, Sn, or Zn, in the energy-loss range in excess of 1 eV to study electronic transitions. The spectra were measured for several momentum transfers q, conducted at both low temperature (T=14 K) and room temperature. While we cannot rule out dispersive features possibly owing to propagating excitations, the coarse envelopes of the general spectra did not appreciably change shape with q, implying that the bulk of the observed L-edge RIXS intensity originates from (mostly) nondispersive ligand field excitations. Summing the RIXS spectra over q and comparing the results at T=14 K to those at T=300 K revealed pronounced temperature effects, including an intensity change and energy shift of the ≈1.4 eV peak, a broadband intensity increase of the 3-4 eV range, and higher energy features. The q-summed spectra and their temperature dependencies are virtually identical for nearly all of the samples with different dopants, save for the temperature dependence of the Ti-doped sample's spectrum, which we attribute to being affected by a large number of free charge carriers. Comparing with magnetization measurements for different temperatures and dopings likewise did not show a clear correlation between the RIXS spectra and the magnetic ordering states. To clarify the excited states, we performed spin multiplet calculations which were in excellent agreement with the RIXS spectra over a wide energy range and provide detailed electronic descriptions of the excited states. Furthermore, the implications of these findings to the photoconversion efficiency of hematite photoanodes is discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Wastewater Disposal Has Not Significantly Altered the Regional Stress State in Southern Kansas

Wastewater disposal is primarily responsible for the increased seismicity rate since ~2013 in southern Kansas. Previous work that used shear-wave splitting (SWS) in southern Kansas interpreted an ~90° temporal rotation in the fast polarization direction and attributed it to increased pore pressures resulting from fluid injection. However, this interpreted rotation coincided with a change in the stations used to make the SWS measurements. We investigate the temporal variability of fast azimuths in southern Kansas by making SWS measurements on earthquake families with similar source–receiver paths recorded on a stable local seismic network. We select high-quality SWS measurements by investigating the stability of results across 65 different frequency bands between 0.5 and 15 Hz. We find that the fast polarization direction in southern Kansas is relatively constant with an average east-northeast (~N79°E) orientation between 2014 and 2017. Our fast polarization measurements are primarily a reflection of the maximum principal horizontal stress direction (SHmax). We observe a slight spatial change in SHmax to the northeast (~N55°E) near the Nemaha ridge in Oklahoma. However, we do not observe any significant temporal rotation of SHmax or variation in delay time (i.e., crack density) in southern Kansas, contrary to the earlier study. The previously interpreted ~90° rotation may either be a reflection of a very local stress change or a misinterpretation of SWS results potentially due to the use of inconsistent source–receiver paths. Our SWS measurements cover the period of peak wastewater disposal and seismicity rates and suggest an absence of significant temporal rotations in the local anisotropy and stress orientations associated with wastewater disposal.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

A nonparametric approach to modeling dependence among production parameters for energy cost estimation

Dependence existing among production parameters can significantly affect energy costs. For material removal processes, processing times and material amounts to be cut have positive dependence, and the dependence can affect energy costs by varying a peak electricity load. Existing methods to model the dependence of production parameters are based on parametric approaches that cannot accurately represent the dependence due to the rigid nature of parametric models. To address this issue, this study proposes a method to quantify dependence among manufacturing parameters through the application of the empirical copula to the dependence between the milling processing time and the amount of volume to be cut. The proposed method is illustrated by a case study of a manufacturing facility consisting of milling machines; a total of 27 scenarios are simulated for energy cost estimations. The case study clearly shows that the proposed method can capture the dependence between the milling parameters more accurately than a conventional dependence measure from parametric correlation models. Furthermore, the findings from this study would be useful to estimate energy costs in that the proposed method provides a better fit to real production data than conventional parametric approaches can.

42 ENGINEERING↗

COVID-19 pandemic ramifications on residential Smart homes energy use load profiles

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected people’s behavioral patterns and schedules because of stay-at-home orders and a reduction of social interactions. Therefore, the shape of electrical loads associated with residential buildings has also changed. In this paper, we quantify the changes and perform a detailed analysis on how the load shapes have changed, and we make potential recommendations for utilities to handle peak load and demand response. Our analysis incorporates data from before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, from an Alabama Power Smart Neighborhood with energy-efficient/smart devices, using around 40 advanced metering infrastructure data points. This paper highlights the energy usage pattern changes between weekdays and weekends pre– and post–COVID-19 pandemic times. The weekend usage patterns look similar pre– and post–COVID-19 pandemic, but weekday patterns show significant changes. We also compare energy use of the Smart Neighborhood with a traditional neighborhood to better understand how energy-efficient/smart devices can provide energy savings, especially because of increased work-from-home situations. HVAC and water heating remain the largest consumers of electricity in residential homes, and our findings indicate an even further increase in energy use by these systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Probabilistic Diffusion Models Advance Extreme Flood Forecasting

Extreme floods pose escalating risks in a changing climate, yet forecasting remains challenging due to peak flow underestimation and high uncertainty. We introduce diffusion-based runoff model (DRUM), a probabilistic deep learning (DL) approach that advances extreme flood forecasting across representative basins in the contiguous United States. DRUM outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks, enhancing nowcasting skill for the top 1‰ of flows in 72.3% of studied basins. Under operational scenarios, DRUM extends reliable lead times by nearly a full day for 20- and 50-year floods. When evaluated with measured precipitation, an ideal condition, recall improves by 0.3–0.4 and the early warning window extends by 2.3 days for 50-year floods. The enhancement potential varies regionally, with precipitation-driven flood zones in the eastern and northwestern US benefiting most, gaining 3–7 days in lead time. These findings highlight the transformative potential of diffusion models as a cutting-edge generative AI technique for advancing hydrology and broader Earth system sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Zwicky Transient Facility Bright Transient Survey. III. BTSbot: Automated Identification and Follow-up of Bright Transients with Deep Learning

Abstract The Bright Transient Survey (BTS) aims to obtain a classification spectrum for all bright ( m peak ≤ 18.5 mag) extragalactic transients found in the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) public survey. BTS critically relies on visual inspection (“scanning”) to select targets for spectroscopic follow-up, which, while effective, has required a significant time investment over the past ∼5 yr of ZTF operations. We present BTSbot , a multimodal convolutional neural network, which provides a bright transient score to individual ZTF detections using their image data and 25 extracted features. BTSbot is able to eliminate the need for daily human scanning by automatically identifying and requesting spectroscopic follow-up observations of new bright transient candidates. BTSbot recovers all bright transients in our test split and performs on par with scanners in terms of identification speed (on average, ∼1 hr quicker than scanners). We also find that BTSbot is not significantly impacted by any data shift by comparing performance across a concealed test split and a sample of very recent BTS candidates. BTSbot has been integrated into Fritz and Kowalski , ZTF’s first-party marshal and alert broker, and now sends automatic spectroscopic follow-up requests for the new transients it identifies. Between 2023 December and 2024 May, BTSbot selected 609 sources in real time, 96% of which were real extragalactic transients. With BTSbot and other automation tools, the BTS workflow has produced the first fully automatic end-to-end discovery and classification of a transient, representing a significant reduction in the human time needed to scan.

Rehemtulla, Nabeel (ORCID:0000000256832389)↗

The Linear Point Standard Ruler with DESI DR1 and DR2 Data

The linear point, a purely geometric feature in the monopole of the two-point correlation function, has been proposed as an alternative standard ruler. Compared to the peak in the correlation function, it is more robust to late-time nonlinear effects at the percent level. In light of improved simulations and high quality data, we revisit the robustness of the linear point and use it as an alternative to template-based fitting approaches typically used in BAO analyses. We present the linear point measurements on galaxy samples from the first and second data releases (DR1 and DR2) of the DESI survey. We convert the linear point into a dimensionless parameter $α_{iso,LP}$, defined as the ratio of the linear point in the fiducial cosmology and the observed value, analogous to the isotropic BAO scaling parameter $α_{iso}$ used in previous BAO measurements. Using the 2nd generation of AbacusSummit mock catalogs, we find that linear point measurements are more precise when calculated in the post-reconstruction regime with 15-60% smaller uncertainties than those pre-reconstruction. We find a systematic shift in the linear point measurements compared against the isotropic BAO measurements in mocks; we attribute this to the isotropic damping parameter responsible for smearing the linear point in the nonlinear regime. We propose a sample-dependent correction that mitigates the impact of late-time nonlinear effects. While this introduces a cosmology dependence in an otherwise model-independent measurement, this is necessary given the sub-percent precision dictated by current cosmological surveys. Comparing $α_{iso,LP}$ with isotropic BAO measurements made on the DESI DR1 and DR2 galaxy samples, we find excellent agreement after applying this correction, particularly post-reconstruction. We discuss future scope regarding cosmological inference with linear point measurements.

Uberoi, N. [Yale U.] (ORCID:0000000275179629)↗

Enhancing heat pump water heater performance with embedded phase change materials thermal energy storage: First hour rating improvement and demand response operation

The increasing global emphasis on energy efficiency and sustainability has put heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) in the spotlight as an energy-efficient alternative to traditional water heating systems. However, their widespread adoption is limited by challenges such as insufficient First Hour Rating (FHR), suboptimal control mechanisms, and limited flexibility for demand response operations. Here, to address these limitations, this study proposes an innovative HPWH system integrated with embedded phase change material (PCM)-based thermal energy storage (TES). The research introduces a novel design and control strategy that leverages optimized PCM integration to enhance thermal storage capacity, improve hot water delivery during peak demand, and increase load-shifting potential. A combination of system modeling, performance simulation, and demand response control strategy evaluation was employed to quantify the benefits of PCM integration. Results demonstrate that the proposed PCM-TES HPWH system significantly enhances FHR, with an optimal 7.0 lb. of PCM increasing FHR by over 26 %—from 62 to 78 gal—for a standard 50-gal HPWH. Additionally, under advanced demand response operation using a preheat strategy, the system reduces the percentage of control temperature out-of-band time from 65 % (conventional HPWH) to just 11.6 %, enabling a more stable and efficient hot water supply. This research contributes a novel PCM-embedded HPWH design and control framework that addresses both performance and grid-interactivity challenges. The findings offer a viable pathway to enhancing the operational efficiency, flexibility, and grid responsiveness of residential water heating systems.

Demand response control↗

Advanced Characterization of Fuel-cladding Chemical Interaction between U-10Zr Fuel and HT9 Cladding Tested in Fast Flux Test Facility

Fuel cladding chemical interaction (FCCI) can greatly accelerate the cladding failure. However, due to the limited space in a fuel cladding assembly, it is historically challenging to gain an mechanistical understanding of the formation mechanism of FCCI and its influence on fuel and cladding performance. With the imminent need to qualify U-10Zr based metallic fuel cladded by HT-9 for advanced reactors demonstration project, it is of vital importance to use advanced characterization method to study FCCI in a unprecedent detailed manner and gain better mechanism understanding of FCCI. Mechanistic Fuel Failure (MFF) series of prototypic fuel elements irradiated in FFTF [1, 2] provides the best samples to study FCCI since the MFF-series assemblies had an axial fuel height the same as proposed length by industry partners. Jason et al. [3] has performed preliminary post-irradiation examination on a MFF fuel pin sample, which was extracted from the HT9 cladded U-10at.%Zr MFF-3 pin MFF-3 pin (#193045) at an axial location of X/L = 0.98. This sample has a peak burnup of 5.7 at.% and peak inner cladding temperature (PICT) of around 615 °C during in-core testing. Scanning electron microscope examination has identified visible FCCI region on more than half of the HT9 circumference [3]. The most striking feature are grain boundary attacking by apparently lanthanides (Lns) rich phase. However, SEM cannot provide accurate assessment of phase and concentration of grain boundary phases and prevented a better understanding of the formation mechanism of such attach. This study, by pairing transmission electron microscope (TEM) characterization and atom probe tomography (APT) techniques with in-situ micro-tensile testing in scanning electron microscope (SEM), aims at gaining in-depth understanding on the formed FCCI region. The identified FCCI region roughly consists of multilayers as illustrated in Figure 1 (c). The main findings are: (1) layer-B shows observable lanthanides (Lns) infiltration along grain boundaries and mechanical softening due to FCCI- and irradiation-induced microstructural and microchemistry changes, particularly the recovery of martensitic lath structure and dissolution of pre-existing M23C6 together with the formation of coarsened Laves phases, (Fe, Cr)2(Mo, W); (2) layer-C is Fe depleted but Lns significantly enriched, becoming very brittle; (3) layer-D is mainly composed of UFe2 and Lns; (4) three FCCI-induced intermetallic U-Fe-Zr phases, ? (Fe0.5Zr0.32U0.18), e (Fe0.3Zr0.4U0.3), ? (Fe0.06Zr0.23U0.71), were identified near layer-E; (5) the ? (Fe0.5Zr0.32U0.18) phase was characterized to be a face centered cubic (FCC) crystal structure. These results will help to better understanding the governing mechanism of FCCI and facilitating the development of theoretical model for assessing the performance of metallic fuel and cladding integrity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Zwicky Transient Facility Bright Transient Survey. II. A Public Statistical Sample for Exploring Supernova Demographics

Here we present a public catalog of transients from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) Bright Transient Survey, a magnitude-limited ( m < 19 mag in either the g or r filter) survey for extragalactic transients in the ZTF public stream. We introduce cuts on survey coverage, sky visibility around peak light, and other properties unconnected to the nature of the transient, and show that the resulting statistical sample is spectroscopically 97% complete at <18 mag, 93% complete at <18.5 mag, and 75% complete at <19 mag. We summarize the fundamental properties of this population, identifying distinct duration–luminosity correlations in a variety of supernova (SN) classes and associating the majority of fast optical transients with well-established spectroscopic SN types (primarily SN Ibn and II/IIb). We measure the Type Ia SN and core-collapse (CC) SN rates and luminosity functions, which show good consistency with recent work. About 7% of CC SNe explode in very low-luminosity galaxies ( M i > –16 mag), 10% in red-sequence galaxies, and 1% in massive ellipticals. We find no significant difference in the luminosity or color distributions between the host galaxies of SNe Type II and SNe Type Ib/c, suggesting that line-driven wind stripping does not play a major role in the loss of the hydrogen envelope from their progenitors. Future large-scale classification efforts with ZTF and other wide-area surveys will provide high-quality measurements of the rates, properties, and environments of all known types of optical transients and limits on the existence of theoretically predicted but as yet unobserved explosions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Highly Active and Durable Air Electrodes for Reversible Protonic Ceramic Electrochemical Cells Enabled by an Efficient Bifunctional Catalyst

The commercialization of reversible protonic ceramic electrochemical cells is hindered by the lack of highly active and durable air electrodes exposed to high concentration of steam under operating conditions. We report findings that dramatically enhance the electrocatalytic activity and stability of a conventional (La 0.6 Sr 0.4 ) 0.95 Co 0.2 Fe 0.8 O 3-δ (LSCF) air electrode by a multiphase catalyst coating composed of a conformal Pr 1-x Ba x CoO 3-δ thin film and exsolved BaCoO 3-δ nanoparticles, are reported. At 600 °C, the catalyst coating decreases the polarization resistance of the LSCF air electrode by a factor of 25 (from 1.09 to 0.043 Ω cm 2 ) in air and the degradation rate by two orders of magnitude (from 1.0 × 10 -2 to 1.8 × 10 -4 Ω cm2 h -1 in humidified air with 30 vol% H2O). Further, a single cell with the catalyst-coated LSCF air electrode at 600 °C demonstrates a high peak power density of 1.04 W cm -2 in the fuel cell mode and a high current density of 1.82 A cm -2 at 1.3 V in the electrolysis mode. The significantly enhanced performance of the LSCF air electrode is attributed mainly to the high rate of surface oxygen exchange, fast surface proton diffusion, and the rapid H 2 O and O 2 dissociation on the catalysts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Exploring the parameter space of MagLIF implosions using similarity scaling. III. Rise-time scaling

Magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) is a z-pinch magneto-inertial-fusion concept studied at the Z Pulsed Power Facility of Sandia National Laboratories. Two important metrics characterizing current delivery to a z-pinch load are the peak current and the current-rise time, which is roughly the time interval to reach the peak current. It is known that, when driving a z-pinch load with a longer current-rise time, the performance of the z-pinch decreases. However, a theory to understand and quantify this effect is still lacking. Here, in this paper, we utilize a framework based on similarity scaling to analytically investigate the variations in the performance of MagLIF loads when varying the current-rise time, or equivalently, the implosion timescale. To maintain similarity between the implosions, we provide scaling prescriptions of experimental input parameters defining a MagLIF load and derive the expected scaling laws for stagnation conditions and for various performance metrics. We compare predictions of the theory to 2D numerical simulations using the radiation, magneto-hydrodynamic code hydra. For several metrics, we find acceptable agreement between the theory and simulations. Our results show that the voltage φload near the MagLIF load follows a weak scaling law φload ∝$t_{φ}^{-0.12}$ with respect to the characteristic timescale t φ of the voltage source, instead of the ideal φload ∝$t_{φ}^{-1}$ scaling. This occurs because the imploding height of the MagLIF load must increase to preserve end losses. As a consequence of the longer imploding liners, the required total laser preheat energy and delivered electric energy increase. Overall, this study helps understand the trade-offs of the MagLIF design space when considering future pulsed-power generators with shorter and longer current-rise times.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A complete catalogue of broad-line AGNs and double-peaked emission lines from MaNGA integral-field spectroscopy of 10K galaxies: stellar population of AGNs, supermassive black holes, and dual AGNs

We analyse the integral field spectroscopy data for the ≈10 000 galaxies in final data release of the MaNGA survey. We identify 188 galaxies for which the emission lines cannot be described by single Gaussian components. These galaxies can be classified into (1) 38 galaxies with broad $\rm H\alpha$ and [O III] $\rm \lambda$5007 lines, (2) 101 galaxies with broad $\rm H\alpha$ lines but no broad [O III] $\rm \lambda$5007 lines, and (3) 49 galaxies with double-peaked narrow emission lines. Most of the broad-line galaxies are classified as active galactic nuclei (AGNs) from their line ratios. The catalogue helps us further understand the AGN-galaxy coevolution through the stellar population of broad-line region host galaxies and the relation between broad lines’ properties and the host galaxies’ dynamical properties. The stellar population properties (including mass, age, and metallicity) of broad-line host galaxies suggest there is no significant difference between narrow-line Seyfert-2 galaxies and Type-1 AGNs with broad $\rm H\alpha$ lines. We use the broad-$\rm H\alpha$ line width and luminosity to estimate masses of black hole in these galaxies, and test the MBH–σe relation in Type-1 AGN host galaxies. Furthermore, we find three dual AGN candidates supported by radio images from the VLA FIRST survey. This sample may be useful for further studies on AGN activities and feedback processes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Searching for axionlike particles from core-collapse supernovae with Fermi LAT’s low-energy technique

Light axionlike particles (ALPs) are expected to be abundantly produced in core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), resulting in a ~ 10 -second long burst of ALPs. These particles subsequently undergo conversion into gamma rays in external magnetic fields to produce a long gamma-ray burst (GRB) with a characteristic spectrum peaking in the 30–100-MeV energy range. At the same time, CCSNe are invoked as progenitors of ordinary long GRBs, rendering it relevant to conduct a comprehensive search for ALP spectral signatures using the observations of long GRBs with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). We perform a data-driven sensitivity analysis to determine CCSN distances for which a detection of an ALP signal is possible with the LAT’s low-energy technique which, in contrast to the standard LAT analysis, allows for a a larger effective area for energies down to 30 MeV. Assuming an ALP mass m a ≲ 10 - 10 eV and ALP-photon coupling g a γ = 5.3 × 10 - 12 GeV - 1 , values considered and deduced in ALP searches from SN1987A, we find that the distance limit ranges from ~ 0.5 to ~ 10 Mpc , depending on the sky location and the CCSN progenitor mass. Furthermore, we select a candidate sample of 24 GRBs and carry out a model comparison analysis in which we consider different GRB spectral models with and without an ALP signal component. We find that the inclusion of an ALP contribution does not result in any statistically significant improvement of the fits to the data. Finally, we discuss the statistical method used in our analysis and the underlying physical assumptions, the feasibility of setting upper limits on the ALP-photon coupling, and give an outlook on future telescopes in the context of ALP searches.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An On-Demand Electric Transit Case Study of New Rochelle, New York

Here, this article characterizes the performance and ridership patterns of an on-demand transit (ODT) service utilizing lightweight electric vehicles (EVs) in New Rochelle, New York. Ridership sociodemographics, travel patterns (both temporal and spatiotemporal), and energy use from the service were explored using travel and survey data from September 2019 through December 2023. The ODT service was found to be used more by women (nearly 60%) and younger demographics (>65% under the age of 42), with peak use in the middle of the day and a grocery store as a top origin and destination. The service was utilized primarily for short trips (86% under 2 mi), with approximately one-third of riders using the ODT service to connect to a train or bus. The costs associated with fueling/charging were compared for different types of fleet vehicles, and the small, right-sized EVs were found to have annual charging costs that were roughly half of the refueling costs for conventional hybrid vans, and 24 times lower than a fleet of diesel buses. Evaluating the vehicle fleet and mapping current socio-spatial travel demand can inform system performance, guide service area development, and support future planning such as expansion to nearby communities and transit hubs. The findings in this case study suggest that on-demand electric transit may be a significant and growing space for advancing highly valued public mobility services. Public transport interventions that consider right-sized, electric, on-demand vehicles can help improve mobility access and reduce energy use and refueling costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Fungal Spore Seasons Advanced Across the US Over Two Decades of Climate Change

Abstract Phenological shifts due to climate change have been extensively studied in plants and animals. Yet, the responses of fungal spores—organisms important to ecosystems and major airborne allergens—remain understudied. This knowledge gap limits our understanding of their ecological and public health implications. To address this, we analyzed a long‐term (2003–2022), large‐scale (the continental US) data set of airborne fungal spores collected by the US National Allergy Bureau. We first pre‐processed the spore data by gap‐filling and smoothing. Afterward, we extracted 10 metrics describing the phenology (e.g., start and end of season) and intensity (e.g., peak concentration and integral) of fungal spore seasons. These metrics were derived using two complementary but not mutually exclusive approaches—ecological and public health approaches, defined as percentiles of total spore concentration and allergenic thresholds of spore concentration, respectively. Using linear mixed‐effects models, we quantified annual shifts in these metrics across the continental US. We revealed a significant advancement in the onset of the spore seasons defined in both ecological (11 days, 95% confidence interval: 0.4–23 days) and public health (22 days, 6–38 days) approaches over two decades. Meanwhile, total spore concentrations in an annual cycle and in a spore allergy season tended to decrease over time. The earlier start of the spore season was significantly correlated with climatic variables, such as warmer temperatures and altered precipitations. Overall, our findings suggest possible climate‐driven advanced fungal spore seasons, highlighting the importance of climate change mitigation and adaptation in public health decision‐making.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Seasonal stabilization effects slowed the greening of the Northern Hemisphere over the last two decades

Rising atmospheric CO₂ and warming spring temperatures increase vegetation growth and the terrestrial carbon sink. However, drought, heat stress, phenology, and resource limitations may stabilize or limit theses projected increases. We investigate the balance between these amplifying and stabilizing ecological factors by asking whether enhanced early-season growth leads to continued late-season growth. Using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) leaf area index (LAI) dataset, we identify three seasonal growth patterns based on early- and peak-season positive LAI anomalies: (1) amplification, where late-season LAI anomalies exceed earlier ones; (2) weak stabilization, where late-season anomalies remain similar or slightly lower; and (3) strong stabilization, where late-season anomalies become negative. Weak and strong stabilization events dominate across 67% and 26% of Northern Hemisphere ecosystems above 30°N, respectively. The absence of any trend in amplifying or stabilizing events suggests stabilizing factors seasonally offset CO₂ and temperature-induced spring greening. Terrestrial biosphere models underestimate strong stabilization and overestimate amplification events. This inconsistency arises from the models’ underestimation late-season LAI sensitivity to precipitation in water-limited regions; overlook negative legacy effects of early enhanced LAI on late-season soil moisture via evapotranspiration losses in energy-limited regions. Our findings suggest water/heat stress and resource limitations limit greening and the land carbon sink.

Zhang, Wen↗